Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 41

Search results for: contingency

41 Recent Trends on Security Constrained Economic Dispatch: A Bibliographic Review

Authors: Shewit Tsegaye, Fekadu Shewarega

Abstract:

This paper presents a survey of articles, books and reports, which articulate the recent trends and aspects of Security Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED). The period under consideration is 2008 through 2018. This is done to provide an up-to-date review of the recent major advancements in SCED, the state-of-the-art since 2008, identify further challenging developments needed in smarter grids, and indicate ways to address these challenges. This study consists of three areas of interest, which are very important and relevant for articulating the recent trends of SCED. These areas are: (i) SCED of power system with integrated renewable energy sources (IRES), (ii) SCED with post contingency corrective actions and (iii) Artificial intelligence based SCED.

Keywords: Security constrained economic dispatch, SCED of power system with IRES, SCED with post contingency corrective actions, artificial intelligence based SCED, IRES.

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40 A Preliminary Study on Factors Determining the Success of High Conservation Value Area in Oil Palm Plantations

Authors: Yanto Santosa, Rozza Tri Kwatrina

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High Conservation Value (HCV) is an area with conservation function within oil palm plantation. Despite the important role of HCV area in biodiversity conservation and various studies on HCV, there was a lack of research studying the factors determining its success. A preliminary study was conducted to identify the determinant factor of HCV that affected the diversity. Line transect method was used to calculate the species diversity of butterfly, birds, mammals, and herpetofauna species as well as their richness. Specifically for mammals, camera traps were also used. The research sites comprised of 12 HCV areas in 3 provinces of Indonesia (Central Kalimantan, Riau, and Palembang). The relationship between the HCV biophysical factor with the species number and species diversity for each wildlife class was identified using Chi-Square analysis with Cross tab (contingency table). Results of the study revealed that species diversity varied by research locations. Four factors determining the success of HCV area in relations to the number and diversity of wildlife species are land cover types for mammals, the width of area and distance to rivers for birds, and distance to settlements for butterflies.

Keywords: Ecological factors, high conservation value area, oil palm plantation, wildlife diversity.

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39 Factors Determining Intention to Pursue Genetic Testing for People in Taiwan

Authors: Ju-Chun Chien

Abstract:

The Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion proposed that the role of health services should shift the focus from cure to prevention. Nowadays, besides having physical examinations, people could also conduct genetic tests to provide important information for diagnosing, treating, and/or preventing illnesses. However, because of the incompletion of the Chinese Genetic Database, people in Taiwan were still unfamiliar with genetic testing. The purposes of the present study were to: (1) Figure out people’s attitudes towards genetic testing. (2) Examine factors that influence people’s intention to pursue genetic testing by means of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A pilot study was conducted on 249 Taiwanese in 2017 to test the feasibility of the self-developed instrument. The reliability and construct validity of scores on the self-developed questionnaire revealed that this HBM-based questionnaire with 40 items was a well-developed instrument. A total of 542 participants were recruited and the valid participants were 535 (99%) between the ages of 20 and 86. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, two-way contingency table analysis, Pearson’s correlation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis were used in this study. The main results were that only 32 participants (6%) had already undergone genetic testing; moreover, their attitude towards genetic testing was more positive than those who did not have the experience. Compared with people who never underwent genetic tests, those who had gone for genetic testing had higher self-efficacy, greater intention to pursue genetic testing, had academic majors in health-related fields, had chronic and genetic diseases, possessed Catastrophic Illness Cards, and all of them had heard about genetic testing. The variables that best predicted people’s intention to pursue genetic testing were cues to action, self-efficacy, and perceived benefits (the three variables all correlated with one another positively at high magnitudes). To sum up, the HBM could be effective in designing and identifying the needs and priorities of the target population to pursue genetic testing.

Keywords: Genetic testing, intention to pursue genetic testing, Taiwan, health belief model.

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38 A Systematic Approach for Analyzing Multiple Cyber-Physical Attacks on the Smart Grid

Authors: Yatin Wadhawan, Clifford Neuman, Anas Al Majali

Abstract:

In this paper, we evaluate the resilience of the smart grid system in the presence of multiple cyber-physical attacks on its distinct functional components. We discuss attack-defense scenarios and their effect on smart grid resilience. Through contingency simulations in the Network and PowerWorld Simulator, we analyze multiple cyber-physical attacks that propagate from the cyber domain to power systems and discuss how such attacks destabilize the underlying power grid. The analysis of such simulations helps system administrators develop more resilient systems and improves the response of the system in the presence of cyber-physical attacks.

Keywords: Smart grid, resilience, gas pipeline, cyber-physical attack, security.

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37 Dynamic State Estimation with Optimal PMU and Conventional Measurements for Complete Observability

Authors: M. Ravindra, R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a Generalized Binary Integer Linear Programming (GBILP) method for optimal allocation of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and to generate Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) solution with complete observability. The GBILP method is formulated with Zero Injection Bus (ZIB) constraints to reduce the number of locations for placement of PMUs in the case of normal and single line contingency. The integration of PMU and conventional measurements is modeled in DSE process to estimate accurate states of the system. To estimate the dynamic behavior of the power system with proposed method, load change up to 40% considered at a bus in the power system network. The proposed DSE method is compared with traditional Weighted Least Squares (WLS) state estimation method in presence of load changes to show the impact of PMU measurements. MATLAB simulations are carried out on IEEE 14, 30, 57, and 118 bus systems to prove the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Observability, phasor measurement units, PMU, state estimation, dynamic state estimation, SCADA measurements, zero injection bus.

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36 Drivers of Digital Product Innovation in Firms: An Empirical Study of Technological, Organizational, and Environmental Factors

Authors: Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Sarah E. Stief, Markus Voeth, Sarah Gundlach

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With digitalization increasingly changing the rules of competition, firms face the need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies in order to remain competitive. Firms can choose from various possibilities to integrate digital technologies including the option to embed digital technologies aiming to innovate products or to develop digital products. However, the question of which specific factors influence a firm’s decision to pursue digital product innovation remains unanswered in research. By adopting the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE)-framework we have designed a qualitative exploratory study including eleven German practitioners to investigate relevant contingency factors. Our results indicate that the most critical factors for a company’s decision to pursue digital product innovation can be found in the technological and environmental dimensions, namely customers, competitive pressure, technological change, as well as digitalization fit. 

Keywords: Digital innovation, digitalization, product innovation, TOE-framework.

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35 Volunteers’ Preparedness for Natural Disasters and EVANDE Project

Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

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The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: Civil protection, earthquake preparedness, volunteers.

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34 The Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioural Intervention in Alleviating Social Avoidance for Blind Students

Authors: Mohamed M. Elsherbiny

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Social Avoidance is one of the most important problems that face a good number of disabled students. It results from the negative attitudes of non-disabled students, teachers and others. Some of the past research has shown that non-disabled individuals hold negative attitudes toward persons with disabilities. The present study aims to alleviate Social Avoidance by applying the Cognitive Behavioral Intervention. 24 Blind students aged 19–24 (university students) were randomly chosen we compared an experimental group (consisted of 12 students) who went through the intervention program, with a control group (12 students also) who did not go through such intervention. We used the Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SADS) to assess social anxiety and distress behavior. The author used many techniques of cognitive behavioral intervention such as modeling, cognitive restructuring, extension, contingency contracts, selfmonitoring, assertiveness training, role play, encouragement and others. Statistically, T-test was employed to test the research hypothesis. Result showed that there is a significance difference between the experimental group and the control group after the intervention and also at the follow up stages of the Social Avoidance and Distress Scale. Also for the experimental group, there is a significance difference before the intervention and the follow up stages for the scale. Results showed that, there is a decrease in social avoidance. Accordingly, cognitive behavioral intervention program was successful in decreasing social avoidance for blind students.

Keywords: Social avoidance, cognitive behavioral intervention, blind disability, disability.

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33 Contingency Screening Using Risk Factor Considering Transmission Line Outage

Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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32 The Change in Management Accounting from an Institutional and Contingency Perspective: A Case Study for a Romanian Company

Authors: Gabriel Jinga, Madalina Dumitru

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The objective of this paper is to present the process of change in management accounting in Romania, a former communist country from Eastern Europe. In order to explain this process, we used the contingency and institutional theories. We focused on the following directions: the presentation of the scientific context and motivation of this research and the case study. We presented the state of the art in the process of change in the management accounting from the international and national perspective. We also described the evolution of management accounting in Romania in the context of economic and political changes. An important moment was the fall of communism in 1989. This represents a starting point for a new economic environment and for new management accounting. Accordingly, we developed a case study which presented this evolution. The conclusion of our research was that the changes in the management accounting system of the company analysed occurred in the same time with the institutionalisation of some elements (e.g. degree of competition, training and competencies in management accounting). The management accounting system was modelled by the contingencies specific to this company (e.g. environment, industry, strategy).

Keywords: Management accounting, change, Romania, contingency and institutional theory.

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31 Financial Information and Collective Bargaining: Conflicting or Complementing?

Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

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The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organisations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: Collective Bargaining, Developing Countries, Disclosures, Financial Information.

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30 Optimal Placement and Sizing of SVC for Load Margin Improvement Using BF Algorithm

Authors: Santi Behera, M. Tripathy, J. K. Satapathy

Abstract:

Power systems are operating under stressed condition due to continuous increase in demand of load. This can lead to voltage instability problem when face additional load increase or contingency. In order to avoid voltage instability suitable size of reactive power compensation at optimal location in the system is required which improves the load margin. This work aims at obtaining optimal size as well as location of compensation in the 39- bus New England system with the help of Bacteria Foraging and Genetic algorithms. To reduce the computational time the work identifies weak candidate buses in the system, and then picks only two of them to take part in the optimization. The objective function is based on a recently proposed voltage stability index which takes into account the weighted average sensitivity index is a simpler and faster approach than the conventional CPF algorithm. BFOA has been found to give better results compared to GA.

Keywords: BFOA, GA, SSVSL, WASI.

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29 Coordination between SC and SVC for Voltage Stability Improvement

Authors: Ali Reza Rajabi, Shahab Rashnoei, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Amir Habibi

Abstract:

At any point of time, a power system operating condition should be stable, meeting various operational criteria and it should also be secure in the event of any credible contingency. Present day power systems are being operated closer to their stability limits due to economic and environmental constraints. Maintaining a stable and secure operation of a power system is therefore a very important and challenging issue. Voltage instability has been given much attention by power system researchers and planners in recent years, and is being regarded as one of the major sources of power system insecurity. Voltage instability phenomena are the ones in which the receiving end voltage decreases well below its normal value and does not come back even after setting restoring mechanisms such as VAR compensators, or continues to oscillate for lack of damping against the disturbances. Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. This paper investigates the effects of coordinated series capacitors (SC) with static VAR compensators (SVC) on steady-state voltage stability of a power system. Also, the influence of the presence of series capacitor on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings required to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted.

Keywords: Static VAR Compensator (SVC), Series Capacitor (SC), voltage stability, reactive power.

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28 In Search of a Suitable Neural Network Capable of Fast Monitoring of Congestion Level in Electric Power Systems

Authors: Pradyumna Kumar Sahoo, Prasanta Kumar Satpathy

Abstract:

This paper aims at finding a suitable neural network for monitoring congestion level in electrical power systems. In this paper, the input data has been framed properly to meet the target objective through supervised learning mechanism by defining normal and abnormal operating conditions for the system under study. The congestion level, expressed as line congestion index (LCI), is evaluated for each operating condition and is presented to the NN along with the bus voltages to represent the input and target data. Once, the training goes successful, the NN learns how to deal with a set of newly presented data through validation and testing mechanism. The crux of the results presented in this paper rests on performance comparison of a multi-layered feed forward neural network with eleven types of back propagation techniques so as to evolve the best training criteria. The proposed methodology has been tested on the standard IEEE-14 bus test system with the support of MATLAB based NN toolbox. The results presented in this paper signify that the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm gives best training performance of all the eleven cases considered in this paper, thus validating the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Line congestion index, critical bus, contingency, neural network.

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27 A Study on Integrated Performance of Tap-Changing Transformer and SVC in Association with Power System Voltage Stability

Authors: Mahmood Reza Shakarami, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Electricity market activities and a growing demand for electricity have led to heavily stressed power systems. This requires operation of the networks closer to their stability limits. Power system operation is affected by stability related problems, leading to unpredictable system behavior. Voltage stability refers to the ability of a power system to sustain appropriate voltage levels through large and small disturbances. Steady-state voltage stability is concerned with limits on the existence of steady-state operating points for the network. FACTS devices can be utilized to increase the transmission capacity, the stability margin and dynamic behavior or serve to ensure improved power quality. Their main capabilities are reactive power compensation, voltage control and power flow control. Among the FACTS controllers, Static Var Compensator (SVC) provides fast acting dynamic reactive compensation for voltage support during contingency events. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with appropriate representations of tap-changer transformers and SVC is investigated. Integrating both of these devices is the main topic of this paper. Effect of the presence of tap-changing transformers on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings necessary to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted. The interrelation between transformer off nominal tap ratios and the SVC controller gains and droop slopes and the SVC rating are found. P-V curves are constructed to calculate loadability margins.

Keywords: SVC, voltage stability, P-V curve, reactive power, tap changing transformer.

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26 Contingent Presences in Architecture: Vitruvian Theory as a Beginning

Authors: Zelal Çinar

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This paper claims that architecture is a contingent discipline, despite the fact that its contingency has long been denied through a retreat to Vitruvian writing. It is evident that contingency is rejected not only by architecture but also by modernity as a whole. Vitruvius attempted to cover the entire field of architecture in a systematic form in order to bring the whole body of this great discipline to a complete order. The legacy of his theory hitherto lasted not only that it is the only major work on the architecture of Classical Antiquity to have survived, but also that its conformity with the project of modernity. In the scope of the paper, it will be argued that contingency should be taken into account rather than avoided as a potential threat. 

Keywords: Architecture, contingency, modernity, Vitruvius.

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25 Design Patterns for Emergency Management Processes

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

Abstract:

Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: Analysis and Design, Business Process Modeling Notation, Contingency Plans, Design Patterns, Emergency Management.

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24 Assessment of ATC with Shunt FACTS Devices

Authors: Ashwani Kumar, Jitender Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, an optimal power flow based approach has been applied for multi-transactions deregulated environment for ATC determination with SVC and STATCOM. The main contribution of the paper is (i) OPF based approach for evaluation of ATC with multi-transactions, (ii) ATC enhancement with FACTS devices viz. SVC and STATCOM for intact and line contingency cases, (iii) Impact of ZIP load on ATC determination and comparison of ATC obtained with SVC and STATCOM. The results have been determined for intact and line contingency cases taking simultaneous as well as single transaction cases for IEEE 24 bus RTS.

Keywords: Available transfer capability, FACTS devices, line contingency, multi-transactions, ZIP load model.

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23 Transmission Expansion Planning with Economic Dispatch and N-1Constraints

Authors: A. Charlangsut, M. Boonthienthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

Abstract:

This paper proposes a mathematical model for transmission expansion employing optimization method with scenario analysis approach. Economic transmission planning, on the other hand, seeks investment opportunities so that network expansions can generate more economic benefits than the costs. This approach can be used as a decision model for building new transmission lines added to the existing transmission system minimizing costs of the entire system subject to various system’s constraints and consider of loss value of transmission system and N-1 checking. The results show that the proposed model is efficient to be applied for the larger scale of power system topology.

Keywords: Transmission Expansion Planning, Economic Dispatch, Scenario Analysis, Contingency.

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22 Reliability Evaluation of Composite Electric Power System Based On Latin Hypercube Sampling

Authors: R. Ashok Bakkiyaraj, N. Kumarappan

Abstract:

This paper investigates the suitability of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) for composite electric power system reliability analysis. Each sample generated in LHS is mapped into an equivalent system state and used for evaluating the annualized system and load point indices. DC loadflow based state evaluation model is solved for each sampled contingency state. The indices evaluated are loss of load probability, loss of load expectation, expected demand not served and expected energy not supplied. The application of the LHS is illustrated through case studies carried out using RBTS and IEEE-RTS test systems. Results obtained are compared with non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and state enumeration analytical approaches. An error analysis is also carried out to check the LHS method’s ability to capture the distributions of the reliability indices. It is found that LHS approach estimates indices nearer to actual value and gives tighter bounds of indices than non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Composite power system, Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, Reliability evaluation, Variance analysis.

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21 Standardization and Adaption Requirements in Production System Transplants

Authors: G. Schuh, T. Potente, D. Kupke, S. Ivanescu

Abstract:

As German companies roll out their standardized production systems to offshore manufacturing plants, they face the challenge of implementing them in different cultural environments. Studies show that the local adaptation is one of the key factors for a successful implementation. Thus the question arises of where the line between standardization and adaptation can be drawn. To answer this question the influence of culture on production systems is analysed in this paper. The culturally contingent components of production systems are identified. Also the contingency factors are classified according to their impact on the necessary adaptation changes and implementation effort. Culturally specific decision making, coordination, communication and motivation patterns require one-time changes in organizational and process design. The attitude towards rules requires more intense coaching and controlling. Lastly a framework is developed to depict standardization and adaption needs when transplanting production systems into different cultural environments.

Keywords: Culture, influence of national culture on production systems, lean production, production systems.

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20 Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Algorithm for Voltage Stability in Large Power Systems

Authors: Mohamad R. Khaldi, Christine S. Khoury, Guy M. Naim

Abstract:

The steady-state operation of maintaining voltage stability is done by switching various controllers scattered all over the power network. When a contingency occurs, whether forced or unforced, the dispatcher is to alleviate the problem in a minimum time, cost, and effort. Persistent problem may lead to blackout. The dispatcher is to have the appropriate switching of controllers in terms of type, location, and size to remove the contingency and maintain voltage stability. Wrong switching may worsen the problem and that may lead to blackout. This work proposed and used a Fuzzy CMeans Clustering (FCMC) to assist the dispatcher in the decision making. The FCMC is used in the static voltage stability to map instantaneously a contingency to a set of controllers where the types, locations, and amount of switching are induced.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Power system control, Reactive power control, Voltage control

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19 Food Quality Labels and their Perception by Consumers in the Czech Republic

Authors: Sarka Velcovska

Abstract:

The paper deals with quality labels used in the food products market, especially with labels of quality, labels of origin, and labels of organic farming. The aim of the paper is to identify perception of these labels by consumers in the Czech Republic. The first part refers to the definition and specification of food quality labels that are relevant in the Czech Republic. The second part includes the discussion of marketing research results. Data were collected with personal questioning method. Empirical findings on 150 respondents are related to consumer awareness and perception of national and European food quality labels used in the Czech Republic, attitudes to purchases of labelled products, and interest in information regarding the labels. Statistical methods, in the concrete Pearson´s chi-square test of independence, coefficient of contingency, and coefficient of association are used to determinate if significant differences do exist among selected demographic categories of Czech consumers.

Keywords: Food quality labels, quality labels awareness, quality labels perception, marketing research.

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18 Technological Environment - International Marketing Strategy Relationship

Authors: Suthawan Chirapanda

Abstract:

International trade involves both large and small firms engaged in business overseas. Possible drivers that force companies to enter international markets include increasing competition at the domestic market, maturing domestic markets, and limited domestic market opportunities. Technology is an important driving factor in shaping international marketing strategy as well as in driving force towards a more global marketplace, especially technology in communication. It includes telephones, the internet, computer systems and e-mail. There are three main marketing strategy choices, namely standardization approach, adaptation approach and middleof- the-road approach that companies implement to overseas markets. The decision depends on situations and factors facing the companies in the international markets. In this paper, the contingency concept is considered that no single strategy can be effective in all contexts. The effect of strategy on performance depends on specific situational variables. Strategic fit is employed to investigate export marketing strategy adaptation under certain environmental conditions, which in turn can lead to superior performance.

Keywords: Contingency approach, international marketing strategy, strategic fit, technological environment

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17 Bail-in Capital: The New Box

Authors: Manu Krishnan, Phil Jacoby

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss the paradigm shift in bank capital from the “gone concern" to the “going concern" mindset. We then propose a methodology for pricing a product of this shift called Contingent Capital Notes (“CoCos"). The Merton Model can determine a price for credit risk by using the firm-s equity value as a call option on those assets. Our pricing methodology for CoCos also uses the credit spread implied by the Merton Model in a subsequent derivative form created by John Hull et al . Here, a market implied asset volatility is calculated by using observed market CDS spreads. This implied asset volatility is then used to estimate the probability of triggering a predetermined “contingency event" given the distanceto- trigger (DTT). The paper then investigates the effect of varying DTTs and recovery assumptions on the CoCo yield. We conclude with an investment rationale.

Keywords: CoCo, Contingent capital, Bank Capital, Tier1 Capital

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16 Probabilistic Method of Wind Generation Placement for Congestion Management

Authors: S. Z. Moussavi, A. Badri, F. Rastegar Kashkooli

Abstract:

Wind farms (WFs) with high level of penetration are being established in power systems worldwide more rapidly than other renewable resources. The Independent System Operator (ISO), as a policy maker, should propose appropriate places for WF installation in order to maximize the benefits for the investors. There is also a possibility of congestion relief using the new installation of WFs which should be taken into account by the ISO when proposing the locations for WF installation. In this context, efficient wind farm (WF) placement method is proposed in order to reduce burdens on congested lines. Since the wind speed is a random variable and load forecasts also contain uncertainties, probabilistic approaches are used for this type of study. AC probabilistic optimal power flow (P-OPF) is formulated and solved using Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). In order to reduce computation time, point estimate methods (PEM) are introduced as efficient alternative for time-demanding MCS. Subsequently, WF optimal placement is determined using generation shift distribution factors (GSDF) considering a new parameter entitled, wind availability factor (WAF). In order to obtain more realistic results, N-1 contingency analysis is employed to find the optimal size of WF, by means of line outage distribution factors (LODF). The IEEE 30-bus test system is used to show and compare the accuracy of proposed methodology.

Keywords: Probabilistic optimal power flow, Wind power, Pointestimate methods, Congestion management

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15 Innovation in Business

Authors: Noemy Witt Ferreira, Flávio de São Paulo Filho

Abstract:

Innovation, technology and knowledge are the trilogy of impact to support the challenges arising from uncertainty. Evidence showed an opportunity to ask how to manage in this environment under constant innovation. In an attempt to get a response from the field of Management Sciences, based in the Contingency Theory, a research was conducted, with phenomenological and descriptive approaches, using the Case Study Method and the usual procedures for this task involving a focus group composed of managers and employees working in the pharmaceutical field. The problem situation was raised; the state of the art was interpreted and dissected the facts. In this tasks were involved four establishments. The result indicates that these focused ventures have been managed by its founder empirically and is experimenting agility described in this work. The expectation of this study is to improve concepts for stakeholders on creativity in business.

Keywords: Administration. Innovation. Knowledge, Management Technology

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14 The Future Regulatory Challenges of Liquidity Risk Management

Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the viability of business liquidity models.

Keywords: liquidity, risk management, regulation, global crisis

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13 A Similarity Function for Global Quality Assessment of Retinal Vessel Segmentations

Authors: Arturo Aquino, Manuel Emilio Gegundez, Jose Manuel Bravo, Diego Marin

Abstract:

Retinal vascularity assessment plays an important role in diagnosis of ophthalmic pathologies. The employment of digital images for this purpose makes possible a computerized approach and has motivated development of many methods for automated vascular tree segmentation. Metrics based on contingency tables for binary classification have been widely used for evaluating performance of these algorithms and, concretely, the accuracy has been mostly used as measure of global performance in this topic. However, this metric shows very poor matching with human perception as well as other notable deficiencies. Here, a new similarity function for measuring quality of retinal vessel segmentations is proposed. This similarity function is based on characterizing the vascular tree as a connected structure with a measurable area and length. Tests made indicate that this new approach shows better behaviour than the current one does. Generalizing, this concept of measuring descriptive properties may be used for designing functions for measuring more successfully segmentation quality of other complex structures.

Keywords: Retinal vessel segmentation, quality assessment, performanceevaluation, similarity function.

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12 Power System Contingency Analysis Using Multiagent Systems

Authors: Anant Oonsivilai, Kenedy A. Greyson

Abstract:

The demand of the energy management systems (EMS) set forth by modern power systems requires fast energy management systems. Contingency analysis is among the functions in EMS which is time consuming. In order to handle this limitation, this paper introduces agent based technology in the contingency analysis. The main function of agents is to speed up the performance. Negotiations process in decision making is explained and the issue set forth is the minimization of the operating costs. The IEEE 14 bus system and its line outage have been used in the research and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Agents, model, negotiation, optimal dispatch, powersystems.

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