Search results for: budget uncertainty.

Authors: Khairul Nizam Tahar, Anuar Ahmad

Abstract:

This paper has introduced a slope photogrammetric mapping using unmanned aerial vehicle. There are two units of UAV has been used in this study; namely; fixed wing and multi-rotor. Both UAVs were used to capture images at the study area. A consumer digital camera was mounted vertically at the bottom of UAV and captured the images at an altitude. The objectives of this study are to obtain three dimensional coordinates of slope area and to determine the accuracy of photogrammetric product produced from both UAVs. Several control points and checkpoints were established Real Time Kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS) in the study area. All acquired images from both UAVs went through all photogrammetric processes such as interior orientation, exterior orientation, aerial triangulation and bundle adjustment using photogrammetric software. Two primary results were produced in this study; namely; digital elevation model and digital orthophoto. Based on results, UAV system can be used to mapping slope area especially for limited budget and time constraints project.

Keywords: Slope mapping, 3D, DEM, UAV, Photogrammetry, image processing.

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Authors: Constantin Pehoiu, Cristian Savu, Silviu Badea, Cristian Borida

Abstract:

The physiological effects of physical exercise on human body are relatively well known in literature, which describes in detail the changes that occur in the cardiovascular system, the respiratory one, in bones and other systems, both during exercise and after its delivery. However, the effects of exercise on mental processes are less treated. From the literature reviews discussed in this study, it can be detached the idea that we can not exactly say that physical exercise has beneficial effects on mental processes, but neither that it would have potentially negative effects. This uncertainty, reflected in the inability to indicate precise and unequivocal meaning, favorable-unfavorable physical effort in acting on mental processes, is a prime reason to undertake a study of the phenomenon influence effort administered physical education classes on the dynamics of mental processes like attention and memory.

Keywords: management, exercise, mental process, lesson.

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Authors: Wichian Sriprachan, Chutikarn Sriviboon

Abstract:

The objectives of this research were to study the management of local towns and to develop a better model of town management according to the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy. This study utilized qualitative research, field research, as well as documentary research at the same time. A total of 10 local towns or Tambons of Supanburi province, Thailand were selected for an in-depth interview. The findings revealed that the model of local town management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy was in a level of “good” and the model of management has the five basic guidelines: 1) ability to manage budget information and keep it up-to-date, 2) ability to decision making according to democracy rules, 3) ability to use check and balance system, 4) ability to control, follow, and evaluation, and 5) ability to allow the general public to participate. In addition, the findings also revealed that the human resource management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy includes obeying laws, using proper knowledge, and having integrity in five areas: plan, recruit, select, train, and maintain human resources.  

Keywords: Management, Local Town (Tambon), Principles of Sufficiency Economy.

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Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: Elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, Fokker-Planck equation, Fourier Spectral method, Finite Difference method.

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

Abstract:

The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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Authors: M. S. Agha, A. M. Eshahiry, S. A. Aldabbar, Z. M. Alshahri

Abstract:

The propagation of microwave is affected by rain and dust particles causing signal attenuation and de-polarization. Computations of these effects require knowledge of the propagation characteristics of microwave and millimeter wave energy in the climate conditions of the studied region. This paper presents effect of wind and humidity on wireless communication such as microwave links in the North West region of Libya (Al-Khoms). The experimental procedure is done on three selected antennae towers (Nagaza station, Al-Khoms center station, Al-Khoms gateway station) for determining the attenuation loss per unit length and cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) change. Dust particles are collected along the region of the study, to measure the particle size distribution (PSD), calculate the concentration, and chemically analyze the contents, then the dielectric constant can be calculated. The results show that humidity and dust, antenna height and the visibility affect both attenuation and phase shift; in which, a few considerations must be taken into account in the communication power budget.

Keywords: Attenuation, scattering, transmission loss.

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Authors: Yvonne T. Haigh

Abstract:

Public sector corruption has long-term and damaging effects that are deep and broad. Addressing corruption relies on understanding the drivers that precipitate acts of corruption and developing educational programs that target areas of vulnerability. This paper provides an innovative approach to explore the nature of corruption by drawing on the perceptions and ideas of a group of public servants who have been part of a corruption investigation. The paper examines these reflections through the ideas of Pierre Bourdieu and Alfred Schutz to point to some of the steps that can lead to corrupt activity. The paper demonstrates that phenomenological inquiry is useful in the exploration of corruption and, as a theoretical framework, it highlights that corruption emerges through a combination of conflict, doubt and uncertainty. The paper calls for anti-corruption education programs to be attentive to way in which these conditions can influence the steps into corruption.

Keywords: Phenomenology, choice, conflict, corruption.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

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Authors: Qiaozhen Song

Abstract:

Based on the feature of model disturbances and uncertainty being compensated dynamically in auto – disturbances-rejection-controller (ADRC), a new method using ADRC is proposed for the decoupling control of dispenser longitudinal movement in big flight envelope. Developed from nonlinear model directly, ADRC is especially suitable for dynamic model that has big disturbances. Furthermore, without changing the structure and parameters of the controller in big flight envelope, this scheme can simplify the design of flight control system. The simulation results in big flight envelope show that the system achieves high dynamic performance, steady state performance and the controller has strong robustness.

Keywords: ADRC, ESO, nonlinear system

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Authors: Kong-Seng, Lai, Nor'Aini Yusof

Abstract:

Organizational culture fosters innovation, and innovation is the main engine to be sustained within the uncertainty market. Like other countries, the construction industry significantly contributes to the economy, society and technology of Malaysia, yet, innovation is still considered slow compared to other industries such as manufacturing. Given the important role of an architect as the key player and the contributor of new ideas in the construction industry, there is a call to identify the issue and improve the current situation by focusing on the architectural firms. In addition, the existing studies tend to focus only on a few dimensions of organizational culture and very few studies consider whether innovation is being generated or adopted. Hence, the present research tends to fill in the gap by identifying the organizational cultures that foster or hinder innovation generation and/or innovation adoption, and propose a model of organizational culture and innovation generation and/or adoption.

Keywords: Innovation adoption, innovation generation, architectural firm, organizational culture

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Authors: Claude Alavoine

Abstract:

While in practice negotiation is always a mix of cooperation and competition, these two elements correspond to different approaches of the relationship and also different orientations in term of strategy, techniques, tactics and arguments employed by the negotiators with related effects and in the end leading to different outcomes. The levels of honesty, trust and therefore cooperation are influenced not only by the uncertainty of the situation, the objectives, stakes or power but also by the orientation given from the very beginning of the relationship. When negotiation is reduced to a confrontation of power, participants rely on coercive measures, using different kinds of threats or make false promises and bluff in order to establish a more acceptable balance of power. Most of the negotiators have a tendency to complain about the unethical aspects of the tactics used by their counterparts while, as the same time, they are mostly unaware of the sources of influence of their own vision and practices. In this article, our intention is to clarify these sources and try to understand what can lead negotiators to unethical practices.

Keywords: competition, cooperation, ethics, negotiation, power

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Authors: Hongji Tang, Yanbo Gao, Yue Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents a new nonlinear integral-type sliding surface for synchronizing two different chaotic systems with parametric uncertainty. On the basis of Lyapunov theorem and average dwelling time method, we obtain the control gains of controllers which are derived to achieve chaos synchronization. In order to reduce the gains, the error system is modeled as a switching system. We obtain the sufficient condition drawn for the robust stability of the error dynamics by stability analysis. Then we apply it to guide the design of the controllers. Finally, numerical examples are used to show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Chaos synchronization, Nonlinear sliding surface, Control gains, Sliding mode control.

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Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

Abstract:

Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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Authors: Christopher Spiewak, M. R. Islam, Mohammad Arifur Rahaman, Mohammad H. Rahman, Roger Smith, Maarouf Saad

Abstract:

For those who have lost the ability to move their hand, going through repetitious motions with the assistance of a therapist is the main method of recovery. We have been developed a robotic assistive device to rehabilitate the hand motions in place of the traditional therapy. The developed assistive device (RAD-HR) is comprised of four degrees of freedom enabling basic movements, hand function, and assists in supporting the hand during rehabilitation. We used a nonlinear computed torque control technique to control the RAD-HR. The accuracy of the controller was evaluated in simulations (MATLAB/Simulink environment). To see the robustness of the controller external disturbance as modelling uncertainty (±10% of joint torques) were added in each joints.

Keywords: Biorobotics, rehabilitation, nonlinear control, robotic assistive device, exoskeleton.

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Authors: Sang-Rak Kim, Jea-Yong Park, Won-Goo Lee, Jin-Shik Yu, Seog-Young Han

Abstract:

This paper presents a Reliability-Based Topology Optimization (RBTO) based on Evolutionary Structural Optimization (ESO). An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation. Deterministic Topology Optimization (DTO) is obtained without considering of the uncertainties related to the uncertainty parameters. However, RBTO involves evaluation of probabilistic constraints, which can be done in two different ways, the reliability index approach (RIA) and the performance measure approach (PMA). Limit state function is approximated using Monte Carlo Simulation and Central Composite Design for reliability analysis. ESO, one of the topology optimization techniques, is adopted for topology optimization. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DTO with RBTO.

Keywords: Evolutionary Structural Optimization, PerformanceMeasure Approach, Reliability-Based Topology Optimization, Reliability Index Approach.

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Authors: Hafiz Usama Imad, Muhammad Akram Akhund, Tauha Hussain Ali, Ali Raza Khoso, Fida Hussain Siddiqui

Abstract:

Construction industry plays a significant role in fulfilling the major requirements of the human being. It is one of the major constituents of every developed country. Although the construction industry of both the developing and developed countries encompasses a major part of the economy, and millions of rupees are utilized every year on various kinds of construction projects. But, this industry is facing numerous hurdles in terms of its budget and timely completion. Construction projects generally consist of several phases like planning, designing, execution, and finishing. This research study aims to determine the significant factors of time overrun in pre-construction planning (PCP) phase of construction projects in Pakistan. Questionnaires were distributed by various means and responses of respondents were compiled and collected data were then analyzed through a statistical technique using SPSS version 24. Major causes of time overrun in pre-construction planning phase; which is an extremely important phase of construction projects, were revealed. The research conclusion will provide a pathway for stakeholders to pay attention to the mentioned causes to overcome the major issue of time overrun.

Keywords: Construction industry, Pakistan, pre-construction planning phase, time overrun.

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Authors: Daurenbek Kuleimenov

Abstract:

Urban life is characterized by rapid changes and high influence of market institutions on livelihood strategies of households to get sustainability, especially in countries of former Soviet Union challenged transformation of economy to the market type. Moving from socialistic worldviews to capitalistic ones which as usual regulated by free markets has been enough big challenge for households in urban area, which have to face with adaptation to new systems. Influence of market institutions on everyday life and planning system of households can destroy traditional household dispositions of the sustainable managing of a family budget. New changes of economy system can lead to splitting up large social networks and appearing new risky livelihood strategies of households. Urban households from Astana that is the capital city of Kazakhstan were interviewed within international research project “Livelihoods Strategies of Private Households in Central Asia. A Rural-Urban Comparison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan”, which enables to explore urgent issues of livelihood strategies of urban households in current Kazakhstan under influence of the spreading of market institutions from the micro level research focus of their everyday life.

Keywords: Market institutions, Sustainability, Transformation economy, Urban households.

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Authors: Kong-Seng, Lai, Nor'Aini Yusof

Abstract:

Organizational culture fosters innovation, and innovation is the main engine to be sustained within the uncertainty market. Like other countries, the construction industry significantly contributes to the economy, society and technology of Malaysia, yet, innovation is still considered slow compared to other industries such as manufacturing. Given the important role of an architect as the key player and the contributor of new ideas in the construction industry, there is a call to identify the issue and improve the current situation by focusing on the architectural firms. In addition, the existing studies tend to focus only on a few dimensions of organizational culture and very few studies consider whether innovation is being generated or adopted. Hence, the present research tends to fill in the gap by identifying the organizational cultures that foster or hinder innovation generation and/or innovation adoption, and propose a model of organizational culture and innovation generation and/or adoption.

Keywords: Innovation adoption, innovation generation, architectural firm, organizational culture

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Authors: Y. Wu

Abstract:

Today-s business has inevitably been set in the global supply chain management environment. International transportation has never played such an important role in the global supply chain network, because movement of shipments from one country to another tends to be more frequent than ever before. This paper studies international transportation problems experienced by an international transportation company. Because of the limited fleet capacity, the transportation company has to hire additional trucks from two countries in advance. However, customer-s shipment information is uncertain, and decisions have to be made before accurate information can be obtained. This paper proposes a stochastic mixed 0-1 programming model to solve the international transportation problems under uncertain demand. A series of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model.

Keywords: Global supply chain management, international transportation, stochastic programming.

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Authors: Piotr Podlipniak

Abstract:

This paper proposes that in the course of evolution pitch structure became a human specific tool of communication the function of which is to induce emotional states such as uncertainty and cohesion. By the means of eliciting these emotions during collective music performance people are able to unconsciously give cues concerning social acceptance. This is probably one of the reasons why in all cultures people collectively perform tonal music. It is also suggested that tonal pitch structure had been invented socially before it became an evolutionary innovation of hominines. It means that a predisposition to tonally organize pitches evolved by the means of ‘Baldwin effect’ – a process in which natural selection transforms the learned response of an organism into the instinctive response. In the proposed, hypothetical evolutionary scenario of the emergence of tonal pitch structure social forces such as a need for closer cooperation play the crucial role.

Keywords: Emotion, evolution, tonality, social consolidation.

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang, Yuan-Hong Ho

Abstract:

This study utilizes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Rules Dataset focusing on four specific fiscal rules such as expenditure rule, revenue rule, budget balance rule, and debt rule and five main characteristics of each fiscal rule those are monitoring, enforcement, coverage, legal basis, and escape clause to construct the Fiscal Rule Index for nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 1996 to 2015. After constructing the fiscal rule index for each country, we utilize the Panel Generalized Method of Moments (Panel GMM) by using the constructed fiscal rule index to examine the effectiveness of fiscal rules in reducing procyclicality. Empirical results show that national fiscal rules have a significantly negative impact on procyclicality of government expenditure. Additionally, stricter fiscal rules combined with high government effectiveness are effective in reducing procyclicality of government expenditure. Results of this study indicate that for nine Asia-Pacific countries, policymakers’ use of fiscal rules and government effectiveness to reducing procyclicality of fiscal policy are effective.

Keywords: Counter-cyclical policy, fiscal rules, government effectiveness, procyclical policy.

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Authors: Shuangquan Liu, Jinwen Wang, Dada Wang

Abstract:

A case study of the generation scheduling optimization of the multi-hydroplants on the Yuan River Basin in China is reported in this paper. Concerning the uncertainty of the inflows, the long/mid-term generation scheduling (LMTGS) problem is solved by a stochastic model in which the inflows are considered as stochastic variables. For the short-term generation scheduling (STGS) problem, a constraint violation priority is defined in case not all constraints are satisfied. Provided the stage-wise separable condition and low dimensions, the hydroplant-based operational region schedules (HBORS) problem is solved by dynamic programming (DP). The coordination of LMTGS and STGS is presented as well. The feasibility and the effectiveness of the models and solution methods are verified by the numerical results.

Keywords: generation scheduling, multi-hydroplants, optimization.

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Authors: Safaa R. Amer

Abstract:

Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Keywords: Complex survey, estimate, imputation, neural networks, variance.

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Authors: Syed Kamarul Bakri Syed Ahmad Bokharey, Kalaikumar Vallyutham, Narayanan Sambu Potty, Nabilah Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Infrastructure investments are important in developing countries, it will not only help to foster the economic growth of a nation, but it will also act as a platform in which new forms of partnership and collaboration can be developed mainly in East Asian countries. Since the last two decades, many infrastructure projects had been completed through build-operate-transfer (BOT) type of procurement. The developments of BOT have attracted participation of local and foreign private sector investor to secure funding and to deliver projects on time, within the budget and to the required specifications. Private sectors are preferred by the government in East Asia to participate in BOT projects due to lack of public funding. The finding has resulted that the private sector or promoter of the BOT projects is exposed to multiple risks which have been discussed in this paper. Effective risk management methods and good managerial skills are required in ensuring the success of the project. The review indicated that mitigation measures should be employed by the promoter throughout the concession period and support from the host government is also required in ensuring the success of the BOT project.

Keywords: BOT project, risks management, concessionaire, consortium.

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Authors: Cláudio Santos, Madalena Araújo, Nuno Correia

Abstract:

The inherent complexity in nowadays- business environments is forcing organizations to be attentive to the dynamics in several fronts. Therefore, the management of technological innovation is continually faced with uncertainty about the future. These issues lead to a need for a systemic perspective, able to analyze the consequences of interactions between different factors. The field of technology foresight has proposed methods and tools to deal with this broader perspective. In an attempt to provide a method to analyze the complex interactions between events in several areas, departing from the identification of the most strategic competencies, this paper presents a methodology based on the Delphi method and Quality Function Deployment. This methodology is applied in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer, as a case study.

Keywords: Competencies, Delphi Method, Quality Function Deployment, Technology Foresight.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

Abstract:

DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: Hassan M. Alkomy, Hesham A. Elkaranshawy, Ahmed S. Ashour, Khaled T. Mohamed

Abstract:

For a rigid body sliding on a rough surface, a range of uncertainty or non-uniqueness of solution could be found, which is termed: Painlevé paradox. Painlevé paradox is the reason of a wide range of bouncing motion, observed during sliding of robotic manipulators on rough surfaces. In this research work, the existence of the paradox zone during the sliding motion of a two-link (P-R) robotic manipulator with a unilateral constraint is investigated. Parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of friction, link-length ratio, total height and link-mass ratio on the paradox zone.

Keywords: Dynamical system, friction, multibody system, Painlevé paradox, robotic systems, sliding robots, unilateral constraint.

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Authors: Hrudaya Ku. Tripathy, B. K. Tripathy, Pradip K. Das

Abstract:

Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has evolved into an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering (or extracting) interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real-world databases. Rough Set Theory (RST) is a mathematical formalism for representing uncertainty that can be considered an extension of the classical set theory. It has been used in many different research areas, including those related to inductive machine learning and reduction of knowledge in knowledge-based systems. One important concept related to RST is that of a rough relation. In this paper we presented the current status of research on applying rough set theory to KDD, which will be helpful for handle the characteristics of real-world databases. The main aim is to show how rough set and rough set analysis can be effectively used to extract knowledge from large databases.

Keywords: Data mining, Data tables, Knowledge discovery in database (KDD), Rough sets.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fuzzy set and intuitionistic fuzzy set are dealing with the imprecision and uncertainty inherent in a complex decision problem. However, sometimes these theories are not sufficient to model indeterminate and inconsistent information encountered in real-life problems. To overcome this insufficiency, the neutrosophic set, which is useful in practical applications, is proposed, triangular neutrosophic numbers and trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers are examined, their definitions and applications are discussed. In this study, a decision making algorithm is developed using neutrosophic set processes and an application is given in fighter aircraft selection as an example of a decision making problem. The estimation of the fighter aircraft selection with the neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is examined.  

Keywords: neutrosophic set, multiple criteria decision making analysis, fighter aircraft selection, MCDMA, neutrosophic numbers

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