Search results for: Sinc Numerical Methods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5997

Search results for: Sinc Numerical Methods

3597 Smart Monitoring and Control of Tap Changer Using Intelligent Electronic Device

Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu, G. R. Manjunatha, R. Ramaprabha, V. Rajini, M. V. Gopalan

Abstract:

In this paper, monitoring and control of tap changer mechanism of a transformer implementation in an Intelligent Electronic Device (IED) is discussed. It has been a custom for decades to provide a separate panel for on load tap changer control for monitoring the tap position. However, this facility cannot either record or transfer the information to remote control centers. As there is a technology shift towards the smart grid protection and control standards, the need for implementing remote control and monitoring has necessitated the implementation of this feature in numerical relays. This paper deals with the programming, settings and logic implementation which is applicable to both IEC 61850 compatible and non-compatible IEDs thereby eliminating the need for separate tap changer control equipment. The monitoring mechanism has been implemented in a 28MVA, 110 /6.9kV transformer with 16 tap position with GE make T60 IED at Ultratech cement limited Gulbarga, Karnataka and is in successful service.

Keywords: Transformer protection, tap changer control, tap position monitoring, on load tap changer, intelligent electronic device (IED).

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3596 Wind Farm Power Performance Verification Using Non-Parametric Statistical Inference

Authors: M. Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Dimchev, V. Stoilkov

Abstract:

Accurate determination of wind turbine performance is necessary for economic operation of a wind farm. At present, the procedure to carry out the power performance verification of wind turbines is based on a standard of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). In this paper, nonparametric statistical inference is applied to designing a simple, inexpensive method of verifying the power performance of a wind turbine. A statistical test is explained, examined, and the adequacy is tested over real data. The methods use the information that is collected by the SCADA system (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) from the sensors embedded in the wind turbines in order to carry out the power performance verification of a wind farm. The study has used data on the monthly output of wind farm in the Republic of Macedonia, and the time measuring interval was from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2016. At the end, it is concluded whether the power performance of a wind turbine differed significantly from what would be expected. The results of the implementation of the proposed methods showed that the power performance of the specific wind farm under assessment was acceptable.

Keywords: Canonical correlation analysis, power curve, power performance, wind energy.

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3595 Discovery of Time Series Event Patterns based on Time Constraints from Textual Data

Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ken Ueno, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method that discovers time series event patterns from textual data with time information. The patterns are composed of sequences of events and each event is extracted from the textual data, where an event is characteristic content included in the textual data such as a company name, an action, and an impression of a customer. The method introduces 7 types of time constraints based on the analysis of the textual data. The method also evaluates these constraints when the frequency of a time series event pattern is calculated. We can flexibly define the time constraints for interesting combinations of events and can discover valid time series event patterns which satisfy these conditions. The paper applies the method to daily business reports collected by a sales force automation system and verifies its effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, sequential mining, time constraints, daily business reports.

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3594 Particle Swarm Optimization Based Genetic Algorithm for Two-Stage Transportation Supply Chain

Authors: Siva Prasad Darla, C. D. Naiju, K. Annamalai, S. S. Rajiv Sushanth

Abstract:

Supply chain consists of all stages involved, directly or indirectly, includes all functions involved in fulfilling a customer demand. In two stage transportation supply chain problem, transportation costs are of a significant proportion of final product costs. It is often crucial for successful decisions making approaches in two stage supply chain to explicit account for non-linear transportation costs. In this paper, deterministic demand and finite supply of products was considered. The optimized distribution level and the routing structure from the manufacturing plants to the distribution centres and to the end customers is determined using developed mathematical model and solved by proposed particle swarm optimization based genetic algorithm. Numerical analysis of the case study is carried out to validate the model.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Production, Remanufacturing

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3593 Natural Convection Boundary Layer Flow of a Viscoelastic Fluid on Solid Sphere with Newtonian Heating

Authors: A.R.M. Kasim, N.F. Mohammad, Aurangzaib, S. Sharidan

Abstract:

The present paper considers the steady free convection boundary layer flow of a viscoelastic fluid on solid sphere with Newtonian heating. The boundary layer equations are an order higher than those for the Newtonian (viscous) fluid and the adherence boundary conditions are insufficient to determine the solution of these equations completely. Thus, the augmentation an extra boundary condition is needed to perform the numerical computational. The governing boundary layer equations are first transformed into non-dimensional form by using special dimensionless group and then solved by using an implicit finite difference scheme. The results are displayed graphically to illustrate the influence of viscoelastic K and Prandtl Number Pr parameters on skin friction, heat transfer, velocity profiles and temperature profiles. Present results are compared with the published papers and are found to concur very well.

Keywords: boundary layer flow, Newtonian heating, sphere, viscoelastic fluid.

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3592 Impact of Viscous and Heat Relaxation Loss on the Critical Temperature Gradients of Thermoacoustic Stacks

Authors: Zhibin Yu, Artur J. Jaworski, Abdulrahman S. Abduljalil

Abstract:

A stack with a small critical temperature gradient is desirable for a standing wave thermoacoustic engine to obtain a low onset temperature difference (the minimum temperature difference to start engine-s self-oscillation). The viscous and heat relaxation loss in the stack determines the critical temperature gradient. In this work, a dimensionless critical temperature gradient factor is obtained based on the linear thermoacoustic theory. It is indicated that the impedance determines the proportion between the viscous loss, heat relaxation losses and the power production from the heat energy. It reveals the effects of the channel dimensions, geometrical configuration and the local acoustic impedance on the critical temperature gradient in stacks. The numerical analysis shows that there exists a possible optimum combination of these parameters which leads to the lowest critical temperature gradient. Furthermore, several different geometries have been tested and compared numerically.

Keywords: Critical temperature gradient, heat relaxation, stack, viscous effect.

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3591 Comparison of Different Hydrograph Routing Techniques in XPSTORM Modelling Software: A Case Study

Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

Abstract:

A variety of routing techniques are available to develop surface runoff hydrographs from rainfall. The selection of runoff routing method is very vital as it is directly related to the type of watershed and the required degree of accuracy. There are different modelling softwares available to explore the rainfall-runoff process in urban areas. XPSTORM, a link-node based, integrated stormwater modelling software, has been used in this study for developing surface runoff hydrograph for a Golf course area located in Rockhampton in Central Queensland in Australia. Four commonly used methods, namely SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave, Laurenson, and Time-Area are employed to generate runoff hydrograph for design storm of this study area. In runoff mode of XPSTORM, the rainfall, infiltration, evaporation and depression storage for subcatchments were simulated and the runoff from the subcatchment to collection node was calculated. The simulation results are presented, discussed and compared. The total surface runoff generated by SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave and Time-Area methods are found to be reasonably close, which indicates any of these methods can be used for developing runoff hydrograph of the study area. Laurenson method produces a comparatively less amount of surface runoff, however, it creates highest peak of surface runoff among all which may be suitable for hilly region. Although the Laurenson hydrograph technique is widely acceptable surface runoff routing technique in Queensland (Australia), extensive investigation is recommended with detailed topographic and hydrologic data in order to assess its suitability for use in the case study area.

Keywords: ARI, design storm, IFD, rainfall temporal pattern, routing techniques, surface runoff, XPSTORM.

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3590 Formulating the Stochastic Finite Elements for Free Vibration Analysis of Plates with Variable Elastic Modulus

Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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3589 Application of Homotopy Perturbation Method to Solve Steady Flow of Walter B Fluid A Vertical Channel In Porous Media

Authors: A.Memari

Abstract:

In this article, a simulation method called the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) is employed in the steady flow of a Walter's B' fluid in a vertical channel with porous wall. We employed Homotopy Perturbation Method to derive solution of a nonlinear form of equation obtained from exerting similarity transforming to the ordinary differential equation gained from continuity and momentum equations of this kind of flow. The results obtained from the Homotopy Perturbation Method are then compared with those from the Runge–Kutta method in order to verify the accuracy of the proposed method. The results show that the Homotopy Perturbation Method can achieve good results in predicting the solution of such problems. Ultimately we use this solution to obtain the other terms of velocities and physical discussion about it.

Keywords: Steady flow; Walter's B' Fluid;, vertical channel;porous media, Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM), Numerical Solution (NS).

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3588 Comparison of the Performance of GaInAsSb and GaSb Cells under Different Temperature Blackbody Radiations

Authors: Liangliang Tang, Chang Xu, Xingying Chen

Abstract:

GaInAsSb cells probably show better performance than GaSb cells in low-temperature thermophotovoltaic systems due to lower bandgap; however, few experiments proved this phenomenon so far. In this paper, numerical simulation is used to evaluate GaInAsSb and GaSb cells with similar structures under different radiation temperatures. We found that GaInAsSb cells with n-type emitters show slightly higher output power densities compared with that of GaSb cells with n-type emitters below 1,550 K-blackbody radiation, and the power density of the later cells will suppress the formers above this temperature point. During the temperature range of 1,000~2,000 K, the efficiencies of GaSb cells are about twice of GaInAsSb cells if perfect filters are used to prevent the emission of the non-absorbed long wavelength photons. Several parameters that affect the GaInAsSb cell were analyzed, such as doping profiles, thicknesses of GaInAsSb epitaxial layer and surface recombination velocity. The non-p junctions, i.e., n-type emitters are better for GaInAsSb cell fabrication, which is similar to that of GaSb cells.

Keywords: Thermophotovoltaic cell, GaSb, GaInAsSb, diffused emitters.

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3587 Cost Optimization of Concentric Braced Steel Building Structures

Authors: T. Balogh, L. G. Vigh

Abstract:

Seismic design may require non-conventional concept, due to the fact that the stiffness and layout of the structure have a great effect on the overall structural behaviour, on the seismic load intensity as well as on the internal force distribution. To find an economical and optimal structural configuration the key issue is the optimal design of the lateral load resisting system. This paper focuses on the optimal design of regular, concentric braced frame (CBF) multi-storey steel building structures. The optimal configurations are determined by a numerical method using genetic algorithm approach, developed by the authors. Aim is to find structural configurations with minimum structural cost. The design constraints of objective function are assigned in accordance with Eurocode 3 and Eurocode 8 guidelines. In this paper the results are presented for various building geometries, different seismic intensities, and levels of energy dissipation.

Keywords: Dissipative Structures, Genetic Algorithm, Seismic Effects, Structural Optimization.

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3586 Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation

Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

Abstract:

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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3585 The Truth about Good and Evil: A Mixed-Methods Approach to Color Theory

Authors: Raniya Alsharif

Abstract:

The color theory of good and evil is the association of colors to the omnipresent concept of good and evil, where human behavior and perception can be highly influenced by seeing black and white, making these connotations almost dangerously distinctive where they can be very hard to distinguish. This theory is a human construct that dates back to ancient Egypt and has been used since then in almost all forms of communication and expression, such as art, fashion, literature, and religious manuscripts, helping the implantation of preconceived ideas that influence behavior and society. This is a mixed-methods research that uses both surveys to collect quantitative data related to the theory and a vignette to collect qualitative data by using a scenario where participants aged between 18-25 will style two characters of good and bad characteristics with color contrasting clothes, both yielding results about the nature of the preconceived perceptions associated with ‘black and white’ and ‘good and evil’, illustrating the important role of media and communications in human behavior and subconscious, and also uncover how far this theory goes in the age of social media enlightenment.

Keywords: Color perception, interpretivism, thematic analysis, vignettes.

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3584 Experimental Studies of Sigma Thin-Walled Beams Strengthen by CFRP Tapes

Authors: Katarzyna Rzeszut, Ilona Szewczak

Abstract:

The review of selected methods of strengthening of steel structures with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) tapes and the analysis of influence of composite materials on the steel thin-walled elements are performed in this paper. The study is also focused to the problem of applying fast and effective strengthening methods of the steel structures made of thin-walled profiles. It is worth noting that the issue of strengthening the thin-walled structures is a very complex, due to inability to perform welded joints in this type of elements and the limited ability to applying mechanical fasteners. Moreover, structures made of thin-walled cross-section demonstrate a high sensitivity to imperfections and tendency to interactive buckling, which may substantially contribute to the reduction of critical load capacity. Due to the lack of commonly used and recognized modern methods of strengthening of thin-walled steel structures, authors performed the experimental studies of thin-walled sigma profiles strengthened with CFRP tapes. The paper presents the experimental stand and the preliminary results of laboratory test concerning the analysis of the effectiveness of the strengthening steel beams made of thin-walled sigma profiles with CFRP tapes. The study includes six beams made of the cold-rolled sigma profiles with height of 140 mm, wall thickness of 2.5 mm, and a length of 3 m, subjected to the uniformly distributed load. Four beams have been strengthened with carbon fiber tape Sika CarboDur S, while the other two were tested without strengthening to obtain reference results. Based on the obtained results, the evaluation of the accuracy of applied composite materials for strengthening of thin-walled structures was performed.

Keywords: CFRP tapes, sigma profiles, steel thin-walled structures, strengthening.

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3583 Multi-Line Power Flow Control using Interline Power Flow Controller (IPFC) in Power Transmission Systems

Authors: A.V.Naresh Babu, S.Sivanagaraju, Ch.Padmanabharaju, T.Ramana

Abstract:

The interline power flow controller (IPFC) is one of the latest generation flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) controller used to control power flows of multiple transmission lines. This paper presents a mathematical model of IPFC, termed as power injection model (PIM). This model is incorporated in Newton- Raphson (NR) power flow algorithm to study the power flow control in transmission lines in which IPFC is placed. A program in MATLAB has been written in order to extend conventional NR algorithm based on this model. Numerical results are carried out on a standard 2 machine 5 bus system. The results without and with IPFC are compared in terms of voltages, active and reactive power flows to demonstrate the performance of the IPFC model.

Keywords: flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS), interline power flow controller (IPFC), power injection model (PIM), power flow control.

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3582 Optimal Route Policy in Air Traffic Control with Competing Airlines

Authors: Siliang Wang, Minghui Wang

Abstract:

This work proposes a novel market-based air traffic flow control model considering competitive airlines in air traffic network. In the flow model, an agent based framework for resources (link/time pair) pricing is described. Resource agent and auctioneer for groups of resources are also introduced to simulate the flow management in Air Traffic Control (ATC). Secondly, the distributed group pricing algorithm is introduced, which efficiently reflect the competitive nature of the airline industry. Resources in the system are grouped according to the degree of interaction, and each auctioneer adjust s the price of one group of resources respectively until the excess demand of resources becomes zero when the demand and supply of resources of the system changes. Numerical simulation results show the feasibility of solving the air traffic flow control problem using market mechanism and pricing algorithms on the air traffic network.

Keywords: Air traffic control, Nonlinear programming, Marketmechanism, Route policy.

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3581 Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Active Vibration Control of a System with Fuel Sloshing

Authors: A. A. Jafari, A. M. Khoshnood, J. Roshanian

Abstract:

Attitude control of aerospace system with liquid containers may face to a problem associate with fuel sloshing. The sloshing phenomena can degrade the stability of control system and in the worst case, interaction between the attitude control system and fuel vibration leading to resonance. In this paper, a full process of nonlinear dynamic modeling of an aerospace launch vehicle with fuel sloshing is given. Then, a new control system based on model reference adaptive filter is proposed and its algorithm is extracted. This controller implemented on the main attitude control system. Finally, numerical simulation of nonlinear model and control system is carried out to examine the performance of the new controller. Results of simulations show that the inconvenient effects of the fuel sloshing by augmenting this control system are reduced and attitude control system performs, satisfactorily.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic modeling, fuel sloshing, vibration control, model reference, adaptive filter

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3580 User-Based Cannibalization Mitigation in an Online Marketplace

Authors: Vivian Guo, Yan Qu

Abstract:

Online marketplaces are not only digital places where consumers buy and sell merchandise, and they are also destinations for brands to connect with real consumers at the moment when customers are in the shopping mindset. For many marketplaces, brands have been important partners through advertising. There can be, however, a risk of advertising impacting a consumer’s shopping journey if it hurts the use experience or takes the user away from the site. Both could lead to the loss of transaction revenue for the marketplace. In this paper, we present user-based methods for cannibalization control by selectively turning off ads to users who are likely to be cannibalized by ads subject to business objectives. We present ways of measuring cannibalization of advertising in the context of an online marketplace and propose novel ways of measuring cannibalization through purchase propensity and uplift modeling. A/B testing has shown that our methods can significantly improve user purchase and engagement metrics while operating within business objectives. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that addresses cannibalization mitigation at the user-level in the context of advertising.

Keywords: Cannibalization, machine learning, online marketplace, revenue optimization, yield optimization.

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3579 Dynamics of a Vapour Bubble inside a Vertical Rigid Cylinder with a Deposit Rib

Authors: S. Mehran, S. Rouhi, F.Rouzbahani, E. Haghgoo

Abstract:

In this paper dynamics of a vapour bubble generated due to a local energy input inside a vertical rigid cylinder and in the absence of buoyancy forces is investigated. Different ratios of the diameter of the rigid cylinder to the maximum radius of the bubble are considered. The Boundary Integral Equation Method is employed for numerical simulation of the problem. Results show that during the collapse phase of the bubble inside a vertical rigid cylinder, two liquid micro jets are developed on the top and bottom sides of the vapour bubble and are directed inward. Results also show that existence of a deposit rib inside the vertical rigid cylinder slightly increases the life time of the bubble. It is found that by increasing the ratio of the cylinder diameter to the maximum radius of the bubble, the rate of the growth and collapse phases of the bubble increases and the life time of the bubble decreases.

Keywords: Vapour bubble, Vertical rigid cylinder, Boundaryelement method.

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3578 Schedule Management of an Enterprise Receiving Orders Considering Dependency between Unit Tasks of a Collaborative Project

Authors: Joseph Oh, Bo-Hyun Kim, Jae-Yong Baek

Abstract:

This study suggests how an order-receiving company can avoid disclosing schedule information on unit tasks to the order-placing company when carrying out a collaborative project on the value chain in an order-oriented industry. Specifically, it suggests methods for keeping schedule information confidential, and categorizes potential situations by inter-task dependency. Lastly, an approach to select the most optimal non-disclosure method is discussed. With the methods for not disclosing work-related information suggested in the study, order-receiving companies can logically deal with political issues relating to the question of whether or not to disclose information upon the execution of a collaborative project in cooperation with an order-placing firm. Moreover, order-placing companies can monitor undistorted information, while respecting the legitimate rights of an order-receiving company. Therefore, it is fair to say that the suggestions made in this study will contribute to the smooth operation of collaborative intercompany projects.

Keywords: collaborative project, dependency, schedule management, unit task.

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3577 Economic Effects of Maritime Environmental Legislation in the North and Baltic Sea Area: An Exploratory Sequential Mixed Methods Approach

Authors: Thea Freese

Abstract:

Environmental legislation to protect North and Baltic Sea areas from harmful vessel-source emissions has received increased political attention in recent years. Legislative measures are expected to show positive effects on the health of the marine environment and society. At the same time, compliance might increase the costs to industry and have effects on freight rates and volumes shipped with potential negative repercussions on the environment. Building on an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach, this research project will study the economic effects of maritime environmental legislation in two phases. In Phase I, exploratory in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 experts from various stakeholder groups aiming at identifying variables influencing the relationship between environmental legislation, freight rates and volumes shipped. Influencing factors like compliance, enforcement and modal shift were identified and studied. Phase II will comprise of a quantitative study conducted with the aim of verifying the theory build in Phase I and quantifying economic effects of rules on shipping pollution. Research in this field might inform policy-makers about determinants of behaviour of ship operators in the face of the law and might further the development of a comprehensive legal system for marine environmental protection. At the present stage of research, first tentative results from the qualitative phase may be examined and open research questions to be addressed in the quantitative phase as well as possible research designs for phase II may be discussed. Input from other researchers will be highly valuable at this point.

Keywords: Clean shipping operations, compliance, maritime environmental legislation, maritime law and economics, mixed methods research, North and Baltic Sea area.

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3576 Attacks Classification in Adaptive Intrusion Detection using Decision Tree

Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Nouria Harbi, Emna Bahri, Mohammad Zahidur Rahman, Chowdhury Mofizur Rahman

Abstract:

Recently, information security has become a key issue in information technology as the number of computer security breaches are exposed to an increasing number of security threats. A variety of intrusion detection systems (IDS) have been employed for protecting computers and networks from malicious network-based or host-based attacks by using traditional statistical methods to new data mining approaches in last decades. However, today's commercially available intrusion detection systems are signature-based that are not capable of detecting unknown attacks. In this paper, we present a new learning algorithm for anomaly based network intrusion detection system using decision tree algorithm that distinguishes attacks from normal behaviors and identifies different types of intrusions. Experimental results on the KDD99 benchmark network intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that the proposed learning algorithm achieved 98% detection rate (DR) in comparison with other existing methods.

Keywords: Detection rate, decision tree, intrusion detectionsystem, network security.

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3575 Digital Library Evaluation by SWARA-WASPAS Method

Authors: Mehmet Yörükoğlu, Serhat Aydın

Abstract:

Since the discovery of the manuscript, mechanical methods for storing, transferring and using the information have evolved into digital methods over the time. In this process, libraries that are the center of the information have also become digitized and become accessible from anywhere and at any time in the world by taking on a structure that has no physical boundaries. In this context, some criteria for information obtained from digital libraries have become more important for users. This paper evaluates the user criteria from different perspectives that make a digital library more useful. The Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis-Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (SWARA-WASPAS) method is used with flexibility and easy calculation steps for the evaluation of digital library criteria. Three different digital libraries are evaluated by information technology experts according to five conflicting main criteria, ‘interface design’, ‘effects on users’, ‘services’, ‘user engagement’ and ‘context’. Finally, alternatives are ranked in descending order.

Keywords: Digital library, multi criteria decision making, SWARA-WASPAS method.

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3574 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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3573 A Context-Aware Supplier Selection Model

Authors: Mohammadreza Razzazi, Maryam Bayat

Abstract:

Selection of the best possible set of suppliers has a significant impact on the overall profitability and success of any business. For this reason, it is usually necessary to optimize all business processes and to make use of cost-effective alternatives for additional savings. This paper proposes a new efficient context-aware supplier selection model that takes into account possible changes of the environment while significantly reducing selection costs. The proposed model is based on data clustering techniques while inspiring certain principles of online algorithms for an optimally selection of suppliers. Unlike common selection models which re-run the selection algorithm from the scratch-line for any decision-making sub-period on the whole environment, our model considers the changes only and superimposes it to the previously defined best set of suppliers to obtain a new best set of suppliers. Therefore, any recomputation of unchanged elements of the environment is avoided and selection costs are consequently reduced significantly. A numerical evaluation confirms applicability of this model and proves that it is a more optimal solution compared with common static selection models in this field.

Keywords: Supplier Selection, Context-Awareness, OnlineAlgorithms, Data Clustering.

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3572 Decision Trees for Predicting Risk of Mortality using Routinely Collected Data

Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

Abstract:

It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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3571 An Optimized Method for 3D Magnetic Navigation of Nanoparticles inside Human Arteries

Authors: Evangelos G. Karvelas, Christos Liosis, Andreas Theodorakakos, Theodoros E. Karakasidis

Abstract:

In the present work, a numerical method for the estimation of the appropriate gradient magnetic fields for optimum driving of the particles into the desired area inside the human body is presented. The proposed method combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Discrete Element Method (DEM) and Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA) evolution strategy for the magnetic navigation of nanoparticles. It is based on an iteration procedure that intents to eliminate the deviation of the nanoparticles from a desired path. Hence, the gradient magnetic field is constantly adjusted in a suitable way so that the particles’ follow as close as possible to a desired trajectory. Using the proposed method, it is obvious that the diameter of particles is crucial parameter for an efficient navigation. In addition, increase of particles' diameter decreases their deviation from the desired path. Moreover, the navigation method can navigate nanoparticles into the desired areas with efficiency approximately 99%.

Keywords: CFD, CMA evolution strategy, DEM, magnetic navigation, spherical particles.

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3570 Classification Control for Discrimination between Interictal Epileptic and Non – Epileptic Pathological EEG Events

Authors: Sozon H. Papavlasopoulos, Marios S. Poulos, George D. Bokos, Angelos M. Evangelou

Abstract:

In this study, the problem of discriminating between interictal epileptic and non- epileptic pathological EEG cases, which present episodic loss of consciousness, investigated. We verify the accuracy of the feature extraction method of autocross-correlated coefficients which extracted and studied in previous study. For this purpose we used in one hand a suitable constructed artificial supervised LVQ1 neural network and in other a cross-correlation technique. To enforce the above verification we used a statistical procedure which based on a chi- square control. The classification and the statistical results showed that the proposed feature extraction is a significant accurate method for diagnostic discrimination cases between interictal and non-interictal EEG events and specifically the classification procedure showed that the LVQ neural method is superior than the cross-correlation one.

Keywords: Cross-Correlation Methods, Diagnostic Test, Interictal Epileptic, LVQ1 neural network, Auto-Cross-Correlation Methods, chi-square test.

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3569 The Rank-scaled Mutation Rate for Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

Abstract:

A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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3568 Numerical Study of Modulus of Subgrade Reaction in Eccentrically Loaded Circular Footing Resting

Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Mohammad Hossein Zade

Abstract:

This article is an attempt to present a numerically study of the behaviour of an eccentrically loaded circular footing resting on sand to determine ‎its ultimate bearing capacity. A surface circular footing of diameter 12 cm (D) was used as ‎shallow foundation. For this purpose, three dimensional models consist of foundation, and medium sandy soil was modelled by ABAQUS software. Bearing capacity of footing was evaluated and the ‎effects of the load eccentricity on bearing capacity, its settlement, and modulus of subgrade reaction were studied. Three different values of load eccentricity with equal space from inside the core on the core boundary and outside the core boundary, which were respectively e=0.75, 1.5, and 2.25 cm, were considered. The results show that by increasing the load eccentricity, the ultimate load and the ‎modulus of subgrade reaction decreased.

Keywords: Circular foundation, eccentric loading, sand, modulus of subgrade reaction.

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