Search results for: fire behavior model

Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

Abstract:

Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, assessment performance model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index.

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Cyril Klimes

Abstract:

This paper focuses on testing database of existing information system. At the beginning we describe the basic problems of implemented databases, such as data redundancy, poor design of database logical structure or inappropriate data types in columns of database tables. These problems are often the result of incorrect understanding of the primary requirements for a database of an information system. Then we propose an algorithm to compare the conceptual model created from vague requirements for a database with a conceptual model reconstructed from implemented database. An algorithm also suggests steps leading to optimization of implemented database. The proposed algorithm is verified by an implemented prototype. The paper also describes a fuzzy system which works with the vague requirements for a database of an information system, procedure for creating conceptual from vague requirements and an algorithm for reconstructing a conceptual model from implemented database.

Keywords: testing, database, relational database, information system, conceptual model, fuzzy, uncertain information, database testing, reconstruction, requirements, optimization

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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Authors: Abhay Utpat, R. B. Ingle, M. R. Nandgaonkar

Abstract:

The vibrations produced by a single point defect on various parts of the bearing under constant radial load are predicted by using a theoretical model. The model includes variation in the response due to the effect of bearing dimensions, rotating frequency distribution of load. The excitation forces are generated when the defects on the races strike to rolling elements. In case of the outer ring defect, the pulses generated are with periodicity of outer ring defect frequency where as for inner ring defect, the pulses are with periodicity of inner ring defect frequency. The effort has been carried out in preparing the physical model of the system. Different defect frequencies are obtained and are used to find out the amplitudes of the vibration due to excitation of the bearing parts. Increase in the radial load or severity of the defect produces a significant change in bearing signature characteristics.

Keywords: Condition monitoring, defect frequency, rolling element, vibration response.

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Authors: Václav Sadílek, Miroslav Vořechovský

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The paper deals with the classical fiber bundle model of equal load sharing, sometimes referred to as the Daniels’ bundle or the democratic bundle. Daniels formulated a multidimensional integral and also a recursive formula for evaluation of the strength cumulative distribution function. This paper describes three algorithms for evaluation of the recursive formula and also their implementations with source codes in the Python high-level programming language. A comparison of the algorithms are provided with respect to execution time. Analysis of orders of magnitudes of addends in the recursion is also provided.

Keywords: Daniels bundle model, equal load sharing, Python, mpmath.

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Authors: H. Paredes Gutiérrez, S. T. Pérez-Merchancano

Abstract:

Motivated by recent experimental and theoretical developments, we investigate the influence of embedded quantum dot (EQD) of different geometries (lens, ring and pyramidal) in a double barrier heterostructure (DBH). We work with a general theory of quantum transport that accounts the tight-binding model for the spin dependent resonant tunneling in a semiconductor nanostructure, and Rashba spin orbital to study the spin orbit coupling. In this context, we use the second quantization theory for Rashba effect and the standard Green functions method. We calculate the current density as a function of the voltage without and in the presence of quantum dots. In the second case, we considered the size and shape of the quantum dot, and in the two cases, we worked considering the spin polarization affected by external electric fields. We found that the EQD generates significant changes in current when we consider different morphologies of EQD, as those described above. The first thing shown is that the current decreases significantly, such as the geometry of EQD is changed, prevailing the geometrical confinement. Likewise, we see that the current density decreases when the voltage is increased, showing that the quantum system studied here is more efficient when the morphology of the quantum dot changes.

Keywords: Quantum semiconductors, nanostructures, quantum dots, spin polarization.

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Authors: Borna Jafarpour, Azadeh Nematzadeh, Vahid Kazempour, Babak Sadeghian

Abstract:

Cellular automata have been used for design of cryptosystems. Recently some secret sharing schemes based on linear memory cellular automata have been introduced which are used for both text and image. In this paper, we illustrate that these secret sharing schemes are vulnerable to dishonest participants- collusion. We propose a cheating model for the secret sharing schemes based on linear memory cellular automata. For this purpose we present a novel uniform model for representation of all secret sharing schemes based on cellular automata. Participants can cheat by means of sending bogus shares or bogus transition rules. Cheaters can cooperate to corrupt a shared secret and compute a cheating value added to it. Honest participants are not aware of cheating and suppose the incorrect secret as the valid one. We prove that cheaters can recover valid secret by removing the cheating value form the corrupted secret. We provide methods of calculating the cheating value.

Keywords: Cellular automata, cheating model, secret sharing, threshold scheme.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: Driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable.

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Authors: V. Vidučić, T. Brešan Ančić, M. Tomelić Ćurlin

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Prior to quantifying the variables of the information model for using school terminology in Croatia's region of Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014, the most relevant model variables had to be determined: historical circumstances, standard of living, education system, linguistic situation, and media. The research findings show that there was no significant transfer of the 1884 school terms into 1949 usage; likewise, the 1949 school terms were not widely used in 2014. On the other hand, the research revealed that the meaning of school terms changed over the decades. The quantification of the variables will serve as the groundwork for creating an information model for using school terminology in Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014 and for defining direct growth rates in further research.

Keywords: Education system, historical circumstances, linguistic situation, media, school terminology, standard of living.

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Authors: Ahmed M. Al-Hasem

Abstract:

A study of the tidal current behavior and bathymetric changes was undertaken in order to establish an information base for future coastal management. The average velocity for tidal current was 0.46 m/s and the maximum velocity was 1.08 m/s during ebb tide. During spring tides, maximum velocities range from 0.90 m/s to 1.08 m/s, whereas maximum velocities vary from 0.40 m/s to 0.60 m/s during neap tides. Despite greater current velocities during flood tide, the bathymetric features enhance the dominance of the ebb tide. This can be related to the abundance of fine sediments from the ebb current approaching the study area, and the relatively coarser sediment from the approaching flood current. Significant bathymetric changes for the period from 1985 to 1998 were found with dominance of erosion process. Approximately 96.5% of depth changes occurred within the depth change classes of -5 m to 5 m. The high erosion processes within the study area will subsequently result in high accretion processes, particularly in the north, the location of the proposed Boubyan Port and its navigation channel.

Keywords: Bathymetric change, Boubyan Island, GIS, Khor Abdullah, tidal current behavior.

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Authors: Manouchehr Amiri

Abstract:

This article presents a general notion of physical bit information that is compatible with the basics of quantum mechanics and incorporates the Shannon entropy as a special case. This notion of physical information leads to the Binary Data Matrix model (BDM), which predicts the basic results of quantum mechanics, general relativity, and black hole thermodynamics. The compatibility of the model with holographic, information conservation, and Landauer’s principle is investigated. After deriving the “Bit Information principle” as a consequence of BDM, the fundamental equations of Planck, De Broglie, Bekenstein, and mass-energy equivalence are derived.

Keywords: Physical theory of information, binary data matrix model, Shannon information theory, bit information principle.

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Authors: A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, S. Daneshmand, C. Aghanajafi

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Traditionally, wind tunnel models are made of metal and are very expensive. In these years, everyone is looking for ways to do more with less. Under the right test conditions, a rapid prototype part could be tested in a wind tunnel. Using rapid prototype manufacturing techniques and materials in this way significantly reduces time and cost of production of wind tunnel models. This study was done of fused deposition modeling (FDM) and their ability to make components for wind tunnel models in a timely and cost effective manner. This paper discusses the application of wind tunnel model configuration constructed using FDM for transonic wind tunnel testing. A study was undertaken comparing a rapid prototyping model constructed of FDM Technologies using polycarbonate to that of a standard machined steel model. Testing covered the Mach range of Mach 0.3 to Mach 0.75 at an angle-ofattack range of - 2° to +12°. Results from this study show relatively good agreement between the two models and rapid prototyping Method reduces time and cost of production of wind tunnel models. It can be concluded from this study that wind tunnel models constructed using rapid prototyping method and materials can be used in wind tunnel testing for initial baseline aerodynamic database development.

Keywords: Polycarbonate, Fabrication, FDM, Model, RapidPrototyping, Wind Tunnel.

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Authors: Nahlah Abbas, Saleh A. Wasimi, Nadhir Al-Ansari

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The Greater Zab and Lesser Zab are the major tributaries of Tigris River contributing the largest flow volumes into the river. The impacts of climate change on water resources in these basins have not been well addressed. To gain a better understanding of the effects of climate change on water resources of the study area in near future (2049-2069) as well as in distant future (2080-2099), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied. The model was first calibrated for the period from 1979 to 2004 to test its suitability in describing the hydrological processes in the basins. The SWAT model showed a good performance in simulating streamflow. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 for periods of 2049-2069 and 2080-2099 were used to project the climate change impacts on these basins. The results demonstrated a significant decline in water resources availability in the future.

Keywords: Tigris River, climate change, water resources, SWAT.

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Authors: Danesh Nourzadeh, Sepideh Khorshid, Shiro Takada, Khosrow Bargi

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In this paper, transversal vibration of buried pipelines during loading induced by underground explosions is analyzed. The pipeline is modeled as an infinite beam on an elastic foundation, so that soil-structure interaction is considered by means of transverse linear springs along the pipeline. The pipeline behavior is assumed to be ideal elasto-plastic which an ultimate strain value limits the plastic behavior. The blast loading is considered as a point load, considering the affected length at some point of the pipeline, in which the magnitude decreases exponentially with time. A closed-form solution for the quasi-static problem is carried out for both elastic and elasticperfect plastic behaviors of pipe materials. At the end, a comparative study on steel and polyethylene pipes with different sizes buried in various soil conditions, affected by a predefined underground explosion is conducted, in which effect of each parameter is discussed.

Keywords: Beam on elastic foundation, Buried pipelines, External explosion, Non-linear quasi-static solution.

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Authors: Kamel Hashem, David Mioduser

Abstract:

This paper describes part of a project about Learningby- Modeling (LbM). Studying complex systems is increasingly important in teaching and learning many science domains. Many features of complex systems make it difficult for students to develop deep understanding. Previous research indicates that involvement with modeling scientific phenomena and complex systems can play a powerful role in science learning. Some researchers argue with this view indicating that models and modeling do not contribute to understanding complexity concepts, since these increases the cognitive load on students. This study will investigate the effect of different modes of involvement in exploring scientific phenomena using computer simulation tools, on students- mental model from the perspective of structure, behavior and function. Quantitative and qualitative methods are used to report about 121 freshmen students that engaged in participatory simulations about complex phenomena, showing emergent, self-organized and decentralized patterns. Results show that LbM plays a major role in students' concept formation about complexity concepts.

Keywords: Complexity, Educational technology, Learning by modeling, Mental models

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Authors: W. Kaowumpai, D. Koolpiruck, K. Viravaidya

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Female breast cancer is the second in frequency after cervical cancer. Surgery is the most common treatment for breast cancer, followed by chemotherapy as a treatment of choice. Although effective, it causes serious side effects. Controlled-release drug delivery is an alternative method to improve the efficacy and safety of the treatment. It can release the dosage of drug between the minimum effect concentration (MEC) and minimum toxic concentration (MTC) within tumor tissue and reduce the damage of normal tissue and the side effect. Because an in vivo experiment of this system can be time-consuming and labor-intensive, a mathematical model is desired to study the effects of important parameters before the experiments are performed. Here, we describe a 3D mathematical model to predict the release of doxorubicin from pluronic gel to treat human breast cancer. This model can, ultimately, be used to effectively design the in vivo experiments.

Keywords: Breast Cancer, Doxorubicin, Controlled ReleaseSystem, Diffusion and Convection Equation.

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Authors: Y. Mohseniahouei, K. Abdella, M. Pollanen

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In this paper, we explore the applicability of the Sinc- Collocation method to a three-dimensional (3D) oceanography model. The model describes a wind-driven current with depth-dependent eddy viscosity in the complex-velocity system. In general, the Sinc-based methods excel over other traditional numerical methods due to their exponentially decaying errors, rapid convergence and handling problems in the presence of singularities in end-points. Together with these advantages, the Sinc-Collocation approach that we utilize exploits first derivative interpolation, whose integration is much less sensitive to numerical errors. We bring up several model problems to prove the accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency of the method. The approximate solutions determined by the Sinc-Collocation technique are compared to exact solutions and those obtained by the Sinc-Galerkin approach in earlier studies. Our findings indicate that the Sinc-Collocation method outperforms other Sinc-based methods in past studies.

Keywords: Boundary Value Problems, Differential Equations, Sinc Numerical Methods, Wind-Driven Currents

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Authors: Fatema-Tuz-Zahura, Raquib Ahsan

Abstract:

Punching shear failure is usually the governing failure mode of flat plate structures. Punching failure is brittle in nature which induces more vulnerability to this type of structure. In the present study, a 3D finite element model of a flat plate with low reinforcement ratio and without any transverse reinforcement has been developed. Punching shear stress and the deflection data were obtained on the surface of the flat plate as well as through the thickness of the model from numerical simulations. The obtained data were compared with the experimental results. Variation of punching stress with respect to deflection as obtained from numerical results is found to be in good agreement with the experimental results; the range of variation of punching stress is within 5%. The numerical simulation shows an early and gradual onset of nonlinearity, whereas the same is late and abrupt as observed in the experimental results. The range of variation of punching stress for different slab thicknesses between experimental and numerical results is less than 15%. The developed numerical model is useful to complement available punching test series performed in the past. The results obtained from the numerical model will be helpful for designing retrofitting schemes of flat plates.

Keywords: Flat plate, finite element model, punching shear, reinforcement ratio.

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: J. Ruenin, S. Sukprasong, R. Phatthanakun, N. Chomnawang, P. Kuntanawat

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In this paper, a simple microfluidic device for monitoring algal cell behavior is proposed. An array of algal microwells is fabricated by PDMS soft-lithography using X-ray LIGA mold, placed on a glass substrate. Two layers of replicated PDMS and substrate are attached by oxygen plasma bonding, creating a microchannel for the microfluidic system. Algal cell are loaded into the microfluidic device, which provides positive charge on the bottom surface of wells. Algal cells, which are negative charged, can be attracted to the bottom of the wells via electrostatic interaction. By varying the concentration of algal cells in the loading suspension, it is possible to obtain wells with a single cell. Liquid medium for cells monitoring are flown continuously over the wells, providing nutrient and waste exchange between the well and the main flow. This device could lead to the uncovering of the quantitative biology of the algae, which is a key to effective and extensive algal utilizations in the field of biotechnology, food industry and bioenergy research and developments.

Keywords: Algal cells, microfluidic device, X-ray LIGA, X-ray lithography, metallic mold, synchrotron light, PDMS

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Authors: M. E. Soto-López, I. Gaxiola-Avendaño, A. Reyes-Salazar, E. Bojórquez, S. E. Ruiz

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The seismic responses of steel buildings with semirigid post-tensioned connections (PC) are estimated and compared with those of steel buildings with typical rigid (welded) connections (RC). The comparison is made in terms of global and local response parameters. The results indicate that the seismic responses in terms of interstory shears, roof displacements, axial load and bending moments are smaller for the buildings with PC connection. The difference is larger for global than for local parameters, which in turn varies from one column location to another. The reason for this improved behavior is that the buildings with PC dissipate more hysteretic energy than those with RC. In addition, unlike the case of buildings with WC, for the PC structures the hysteretic energy is mostly dissipated at the connections, which implies that structural damage in beams and columns is not significant. According to these results, steel buildings with PC are a viable option in high seismicity areas because of their smaller response and self-centering connection capacity as well as the fact that brittle failure is avoided.

Keywords: Inter-story drift, Nonlinear time-history analysis, Post-tensioned connections, Steel buildings.

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Authors: N. Santatriniaina, J. Deseure, T.Q. Nguyen, H. Fontaine, C. Beitia, L. Rakotomanana

Abstract:

Nowadays, with the increasing of the wafer's size and the decreasing of critical size of integrated circuit manufacturing in modern high-tech, microelectronics industry needs a maximum attention to challenge the contamination control. The move to 300 [mm] is accompanied by the use of Front Opening Unified Pods for wafer and his storage. In these pods an airborne cross contamination may occur between wafers and the pods. A predictive approach using modeling and computational methods is very powerful method to understand and qualify the AMCs cross contamination processes. This work investigates the required numerical tools which are employed in order to study the AMCs cross-contamination transfer phenomena between wafers and FOUPs. Numerical optimization and finite element formulation in transient analysis were established. Analytical solution of one dimensional problem was developed and the calibration process of physical constants was performed. The least square distance between the model (analytical 1D solution) and the experimental data are minimized. The behavior of the AMCs intransient analysis was determined. The model framework preserves the classical forms of the diffusion and convection-diffusion equations and yields to consistent form of the Fick's law. The adsorption process and the surface roughness effect were also traduced as a boundary condition using the switch condition Dirichlet to Neumann and the interface condition. The methodology is applied, first using the optimization methods with analytical solution to define physical constants, and second using finite element method including adsorption kinetic and the switch of Dirichlet to Neumann condition.

Keywords: AMCs, FOUP, cross-contamination, adsorption, diffusion, numerical analysis, wafers, Dirichlet to Neumann, finite elements methods, Fick’s law, optimization.

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Authors: Jahar Sarkar

Abstract:

In the present study, a steady-state simulation model has been developed to evaluate the system performance of a transcritical carbon dioxide heat pump system for simultaneous water cooling and heating. Both the evaporator (including both two-phase and superheated zone) and gas cooler models consider the highly variable heat transfer characteristics of CO2 and pressure drop. The numerical simulation model of transcritical CO2 heat pump has been validated by test data obtained from experiments on the heat pump prototype. Comparison between the test results and the model prediction for system COP variation with compressor discharge pressure shows a modest agreement with a maximum deviation of 15% and the trends are fairly similar. Comparison for other operating parameters also shows fairly similar deviation between the test results and the model prediction. Finally, the simulation results are presented to study the effects of operating parameters such as, temperature of heat exchanger fluid at the inlet, discharge pressure, compressor speed on system performance of CO2 heat pump, suitable in a dairy plant where simultaneous cooling at 4oC and heating at 73oC are required. Results show that good heat transfer properties of CO2 for both two-phase and supercritical region and efficient compression process contribute a lot for high system COPs.

Keywords: CO2 heat pump, dairy system, experiment, simulation model, validation.

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Authors: Elina Bakhtieva

Abstract:

The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap. However, modern marketing offers no widely approved digital marketing maturity model, and thus, some marketing institutions provide their own tools. The purpose of this paper is building an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model based on a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of existing models. The current study provides an analytical review of the existing digital marketing maturity models with open access. The results of the research are twofold. First, the provided SWOT analysis outlines the main advantages and disadvantages of existing models. Secondly, the strengths of existing digital marketing maturity models, helps to identify the main characteristics and the structure of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model. The research findings indicate that only one out of three analyzed models could be used as a separate tool. This study is among the first examining the use of maturity models in digital marketing. It helps businesses to choose between the existing digital marketing models, the most effective one. Moreover, it creates a base for future research on digital marketing maturity models. This study contributes to the emerging B2B digital marketing literature by providing a SWOT analysis of the existing digital marketing maturity models and suggesting a structure and main characteristics of an optimized B2B digital marketing maturity model.

Keywords: B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis.

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Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Leandri, Pierre Liardet

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The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydrosedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model.

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Authors: Navjot Kaur, Mini Ghosh, S.S. Bhatia

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This paper proposes and analyzes an SIRS epidemic model incorporating the effects of the awareness programs driven by the media. Media and media driven awareness programs play a promising role in disseminating the information about outbreak of any disease across the globe. This motivates people to take precautionary measures and guides the infected individuals to get hospitalized. Timely hospitalization helps to reduce diagnostic delays and hence results in fast recovery of infected individuals. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the media on the spread and control of infectious diseases. This model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. The sensitivity of parameters has been discussed and it has been found that the awareness programs driven by the media have positive impact in reducing the infection prevalence of the infective population in the region under consideration.

Keywords: Infectious diseases, SIRS model, Media, Stability theory, Simulation.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

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Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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Authors: V. Viduĉić, J. Žanić Mikuliĉić, M. Raĉić, K. Sladojević

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analysing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko- Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: Environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification.

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Authors: Alia Abdul Ghaffar, Tom Richardson

Abstract:

A model reference adaptive control and a fixed gain LQR control were implemented in the height controller of a quadrotor that has parametric uncertainties due to the act of picking up an object of unknown dimension and mass. It is shown that an adaptive controller, unlike the fixed gain controller, is capable of ensuring a stable tracking performance under such condition, although adaptive control suffers from several limitations. The combination of both adaptive and fixed gain control in the controller architecture can result in an enhanced tracking performance in the presence parametric uncertainties.

Keywords: UAV, quadrotor, model reference adaptive control, LQR control.

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