Search results for: global rating

Authors: Yanwei Pang, Lei Zhang, Zhengkai Liu

Abstract:

Studies in neuroscience suggest that both global and local feature information are crucial for perception and recognition of faces. It is widely believed that local feature is less sensitive to variations caused by illumination, expression and illumination. In this paper, we target at designing and learning local features for face recognition. We designed three types of local features. They are semi-global feature, local patch feature and tangent shape feature. The designing of semi-global feature aims at taking advantage of global-like feature and meanwhile avoiding suppressing AdaBoost algorithm in boosting weak classifies established from small local patches. The designing of local patch feature targets at automatically selecting discriminative features, and is thus different with traditional ways, in which local patches are usually selected manually to cover the salient facial components. Also, shape feature is considered in this paper for frontal view face recognition. These features are selected and combined under the framework of boosting algorithm and cascade structure. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the standard eigenface method and Bayesian method. Moreover, the selected local features and observations in the experiments are enlightening to researches in local feature design in face recognition.

Keywords: Face recognition, local feature, AdaBoost, subspace analysis.

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Authors: Anabel Fernandez, Leandro Rodriguez-Ortiz, Rosa Rodríguez

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Due to the negative impact of fossil fuels, renewable energies are promising sources to limit global temperature rise and damage to the environment. Also, the development of technology is focused on obtaining energetic products from renewable sources. In this study, a thermodynamic model including exergy balance and a subsequent Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were carried out for four subsystems of the integrated gasification-combustion of pinewood. Results of exergy analysis and LCA showed the process feasibility in terms of exergy efficiency and global energy efficiency of the life cycle (GEELC). Moreover, the energy return on investment (EROI) index was calculated. The global exergy efficiency resulted in 67%. For pretreatment, reaction, cleaning, and electric generation subsystems, the results were 85%, 59%, 87%, and 29%, respectively. Results of LCA indicated that the emissions from the electric generation caused the most damage to the atmosphere, water, and soil. GEELC resulted in 31.09% for the global process. This result suggested the environmental feasibility of an integrated gasification-combustion system. EROI resulted in 3.15, which determines the sustainability of the process.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, LCA, renewability, sustainability.

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Authors: Eronini Umez-Eronini

Abstract:

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) coupled with wind farms have gained attention as a means to address the intermittency and variability of wind power. However, most existing studies and implementations focus on bulk or centralized CAES plants. This study presents a dynamic model of a hybrid wind farm with distributed CAES, using air storage tanks and compressor and expander trains at each wind turbine station. It introduces the concept of a distributed CAES with linked air cooling and heating, and presents an approach to scheduling and regulating the production of compressed air and power in such a system. Mathematical models of the dynamic components of this hybrid wind farm system, including a simple transient wake field model, were developed and simulated using MATLAB, with real wind data and Transmission System Operator (TSO) absolute power reference signals as inputs. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ad hoc supervisory controller is able to track the minute-scale power demand signal within an error band size comparable to the electrical power rating of a single expander. This suggests that combining the global distributed CAES control with power regulation for individual wind turbines could further improve the system’s performance. The round trip electrical storage efficiency computed for the distributed CAES was also in the range of reported round trip storage electrical efficiencies for improved bulk CAES. These findings contribute to the enhancement of efficiency of wind farms without access to large-scale storage or underground caverns.

Keywords: Distributed CAES, compressed air, energy storage, hybrid wind farm, wind turbines, dynamic simulation.

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Authors: A. Alirezaei, S. Vahdani

Abstract:

This study estimates the seismic demands of tall buildings with central symmetric setbacks by using nonlinear time history analysis. Three setback structures, all 60-story high with setback in three levels, are used for evaluation. The effects of irregularities occurred by setback are evaluated by determination of global-drift, story-displacement and story drift. Story-displacement is modified by roof displacement and first story displacement and story drift is modified by global drift. All results are calculated at the center of mass and in x and y direction. Also the absolute values of these quantities are determined. The results show that increasing of vertical irregularities increases the global drift of the structure and enlarges the deformations in the height of the structure. It is also observed that the effects of geometry irregularity in the seismic deformations of setback structures are higher than those of mass irregularity.

Keywords: Deformation demand, drift, setback, tall building.

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Authors: M. A. Meslem

Abstract:

For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.

Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.

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Authors: Asadollah Aghajani, Yaghoub Jalilian

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Using the concept of measure of noncompactness, we present some results concerning the existence, uniform local attractivity and global attractivity of solutions for a functional integral equation. Our results improve and extend some previous known results and based on weaker conditions. Some examples which show that our results are applicable when the previous results are inapplicable are also included.

Keywords: Functional integral equation, fixed-point, measure of noncompactness, attractive solution, asymptotic stability.

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Authors: Ujjwala Bhand, Mridula Goel

Abstract:

Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) prepared by World Economic Forum has become a benchmark in studying the competitiveness of countries and for understanding the factors that enable competitiveness. Innovation is a key pillar in competitiveness and has the unique property of enabling exponential economic growth. This paper attempts to analyze how the pillars comprising the Global Competitiveness Index affect innovation and whether GDP growth can directly affect innovation outcomes for a country. The key objective of the study is to identify areas on which governments of developing countries can focus policies and programs to improve their country’s innovativeness. We have compiled a panel data set for top innovating countries and large emerging economies called BRICS from 2007-08 to 2014-15 in order to find the significant factors that affect innovation. The results of the regression analysis suggest that government should make policies to improve labor market efficiency, establish sophisticated business networks, provide basic health and primary education to its people and strengthen the quality of higher education and training services in the economy. The achievements of smaller economies on innovation suggest that concerted efforts by governments can counter any size related disadvantage, and in fact can provide greater flexibility and speed in encouraging innovation.

Keywords: Innovation, Global Competitiveness Index, BRICS, economic growth.

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Authors: Jeffrey R. Mueller

Abstract:

This paper expands on the role of the professor by detailing the origins of the profession, adding some of the unique contributions of North American universities as well as some of the best practice recommendations to the unique tripartite role of the professor. It describes current challenges to the profession including the ever-controversial student rating of professors. It continues with the significance of empowerment to the role of the professor. It concludes with a predictive prescription for the future of the professoriate and the role of the university-level educational administrator toward that end.

Keywords: Professoriate history, tripartite role, challenges, empowerment, shared governance, administratization.

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Authors: A. Brunel, A. Kernevez, F. Leclere, J. Trenteseaux

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Today, wine quality is only evaluated by wine experts with their own different personal tastes, even if they may agree on some common features. So producers do not have any unbiased way to independently assess the quality of their products. A tool is here proposed to evaluate wine quality by an objective ranking based upon the variables entering wine elaboration, and analysed through principal component analysis (PCA) method. Actual climatic data are compared by measuring the relative distance between each considered wine, out of which the general ranking is performed.

Keywords: Wine, grape, vine, weather conditions, rating, climate, principal component analysis, metric analysis.

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Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

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This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

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Authors: Y. Z. Wu, Z. Dong, S. K. You

Abstract:

Global approximation using metamodel for complex mathematical function or computer model over a large variable domain is often needed in sensibility analysis, computer simulation, optimal control, and global design optimization of complex, multiphysics systems. To overcome the limitations of the existing response surface (RS), surrogate or metamodel modeling methods for complex models over large variable domain, a new adaptive and regressive RS modeling method using quadratic functions and local area model improvement schemes is introduced. The method applies an iterative and Latin hypercube sampling based RS update process, divides the entire domain of design variables into multiple cells, identifies rougher cells with large modeling error, and further divides these cells along the roughest dimension direction. A small number of additional sampling points from the original, expensive model are added over the small and isolated rough cells to improve the RS model locally until the model accuracy criteria are satisfied. The method then combines local RS cells to regenerate the global RS model with satisfactory accuracy. An effective RS cells sorting algorithm is also introduced to improve the efficiency of model evaluation. Benchmark tests are presented and use of the new metamodeling method to replace complex hybrid electrical vehicle powertrain performance model in vehicle design optimization and optimal control are discussed.

Keywords: Global approximation, polynomial response surface, domain decomposition, domain combination, multiphysics modeling, hybrid powertrain optimization

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Authors: Ashanie Guanathillake, Kithsiri Samarasinghe

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks consist of inexpensive, low power sensor nodes deployed to monitor the environment and collect data. Gathering information in an energy efficient manner is a critical aspect to prolong the network lifetime. Clustering  algorithms have an advantage of enhancing the network lifetime. Current clustering algorithms usually focus on global re-clustering and local re-clustering separately. This paper, proposed a combination of those two reclustering methods to reduce the energy consumption of the network. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can apply to homogeneous as well as heterogeneous wireless sensor networks. In addition, the cluster head rotation happens, only when its energy drops below a dynamic threshold value computed by the algorithm. The simulation result shows that the proposed algorithm prolong the network lifetime compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Energy efficient, Global re-clustering, Local re-clustering, Wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: J. M. de Luis Ruiz, P. M. Sierra García, R. P. García, R. P. Álvarez, F. P. García, E. C. López

Abstract:

Given the evolution of viaducts, structural health monitoring requires more complex techniques to define their state. two alternatives can be distinguished: experimental and operational modal analysis. Although accelerometers or Global Positioning System (GPS) have been applied for the monitoring of structures under exploitation, the dynamic monitoring during the stage of construction is not common. This research analyzes whether GPS data can be applied to certain dynamic geometric controls of evolving structures. The fundamentals of this work were applied to the New Bridge of Cádiz (Spain), a worldwide milestone in bridge building. GPS data were recorded with an interval of 1 second during the erection of segments and turned to the frequency domain with Fourier transform. The vibration period and amplitude were contrasted with those provided by the finite element model, with differences of less than 10%, which is admissible. This process provides a vibration record of the structure with GPS, avoiding specific equipment.

Keywords: Fourier transform, global position system, operational modal analysis, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: M. Bakhouya, S. A. Bahra, T. El-Ghazawi

Abstract:

The Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) programming paradigm offers ease-of-use in expressing parallelism through a global shared address space while emphasizing performance by providing locality awareness through the partitioning of this address space. Therefore, the interest in PGAS programming languages is growing and many new languages have emerged and are becoming ubiquitously available on nearly all modern parallel architectures. Recently, new parallel machines with multiple cores are designed for targeting high performance applications. Most of the efforts have gone into benchmarking but there are a few examples of real high performance applications running on multicore machines. In this paper, we present and evaluate a parallelization technique for implementing a local DNA sequence alignment algorithm using a PGAS based language, UPC (Unified Parallel C) on a chip multithreading architecture, the UltraSPARC T1.

Keywords: Partitioned Global Address Space, Unified Parallel C, Multicore machines, Multi-threading Architecture, Sequence alignment.

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Authors: Martin Hans Knahl

Abstract:

The Internet is the global data communications infrastructure based on the interconnection of both public and private networks using protocols that implement Internetworking on a global scale. Hence the control of protocol and infrastructure development, resource allocation and network operation are crucial and interlinked aspects. Internet Governance is the hotly debated and contentious subject that refers to the global control and operation of key Internet infrastructure such as domain name servers and resources such as domain names. It is impossible to separate technical and political positions as they are interlinked. Furthermore the existence of a global market, transparency and competition impact upon Internet Governance and related topics such as network neutrality and security. Current trends and developments regarding Internet governance with a focus on the policy-making process, security and control have been observed to evaluate current and future implications on the Internet. The multi stakeholder approach to Internet Governance discussed in this paper presents a number of opportunities, issues and developments that will affect the future direction of the Internet. Internet operation, maintenance and advisory organisations such as the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) or the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) are currently in the process of formulating policies for future Internet Governance. Given the controversial nature of the issues at stake and the current lack of agreement it is predicted that institutional as well as market governance will remain present for the network access and content.

Keywords: Internet Governance, ICANN, Democracy, Security

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Authors: Guy Rosman, Alexander M. Bronstein, Michael M. Bronstein, Ron Kimmel

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We present a new algorithm for nonlinear dimensionality reduction that consistently uses global information, and that enables understanding the intrinsic geometry of non-convex manifolds. Compared to methods that consider only local information, our method appears to be more robust to noise. Unlike most methods that incorporate global information, the proposed approach automatically handles non-convexity of the data manifold. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm and compare it to state-of-the-art methods on synthetic as well as real data.

Keywords: Dimensionality reduction, manifold learning, multidimensional scaling, geodesic distance, boundary detection.

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Authors: Daniel C. S. Lim, W. Y. Tan

Abstract:

The world is facing a growing food crisis. The concerns of food nutritional value, food safety and food security are becoming increasingly real. There is also a direct relationship to the risk of diseases, particularly chronic diseases, to the food we consume. So, there are increasing concerns about the modern day food ecosystem creating foods that can provide the nutritional components for organ function sustenance, as well as, taking a serious view on diet-related diseases. This paper addresses some of the above concerns and gives an overview of the current global situation relating to food nutrition and safety. The paper reviews nutritional aspects of food today compared to those of the last century, compares whole foods found in supermarkets versus those organically grown, as well as population behaviour towards food choices. It provides scientific insights into the effects of some of the global trends such as climate change and other changes environmental changes, and presents what individuals and corporations are doing to use the latest nutritional technologies as strategic assets. Finally, it briefly highlights some of the innovative solutions that are being applied to address several of the above concerns.

Keywords: Food crisis, food safety, nutritional aspects of food today compared to those of the last century, global trends.

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Authors: Dody Ismoyo, Mohammad Awan, Norashikin Yahya

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The presence of harmonic in power system is a major concerned to power engineers for many years. With the increasing usage of nonlinear loads in power systems, the harmonic pollution becomes more serious. One of the widely used computation algorithm for harmonic analysis is fast Fourier transform (FFT). In this paper, a harmonic analyzer using FFT was implemented on TMS320C6713 DSK. The supply voltage of 240 V 59 Hz is stepped down to 5V using a voltage divider in order to match the power rating of the DSK input. The output from the DSK was displayed on oscilloscope and Code Composer Studio™ software. This work has demonstrated the possibility of analyzing the 240V power supply harmonic content using the DSK board.

Keywords: Harmonic Analysis, DSP.

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Authors: H. Alkhatib, J. Duveau

Abstract:

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been widely used for global optimization problems. The GA performance depends highly on the choice of the search space for each parameter to be optimized. Often, this choice is a problem-based experience. The search space being a set of potential solutions may contain the global optimum and/or other local optimums. A bad choice of this search space results in poor solutions. In this paper, our approach consists in extending the search space boundaries during the GA optimization, only when it is required. This leads to more diversification of GA population by new solutions that were not available with fixed search space boundaries. So, these dynamic search spaces can improve the GA optimization performances. The proposed approach is applied to power system stabilizer optimization for multimachine power system (16-generator and 68-bus). The obtained results are evaluated and compared with those obtained by ordinary GAs. Eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear system simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to damp out the electromechanical oscillation and enhance the global system stability.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Multiobjective Optimization, Power System Stabilizer, Small Signal Stability.

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Authors: Bello Abdullahi, Yahaya M. Ibrahim, Ahmed D. Ibrahim, Kabir Bala

Abstract:

Public sector tendering has traditionally been conducted using manual paper-based processes which are known to be inefficient, less transparent and more prone to manipulations and errors. The advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web has led to the development of numerous e-Tendering systems that addressed some of the problems associated with the manual paper-based tendering system. However, most of these systems rarely support the evaluation of tenders and where they do it is mostly based on the single decision maker which is not suitable in public sector tendering, where for the sake of objectivity, transparency, and fairness, it is required that the evaluation is conducted through a tender evaluation committee. Currently, in Nigeria, the public tendering process in general and the evaluation of tenders, in particular, are largely conducted using manual paper-based processes. Automating these manual-based processes to digital-based processes can help in enhancing the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. This paper is part of a larger study to develop an electronic tendering system that supports the whole tendering lifecycle based on Nigerian procurement law. Specifically, this paper presents the design and implementation of part of the system that supports group evaluation of tenders based on a technique called fuzzy multi-attributes group decision making. The system was developed using Object-Oriented methodologies and Unified Modelling Language and hypothetically applied in the evaluation of technical and financial proposals submitted by bidders. The system was validated by professionals with extensive experiences in public sector procurement. The results of the validation showed that the system called NPS-eTender has an average rating of 74% with respect to correct and accurate modelling of the existing manual tendering domain and an average rating of 67.6% with respect to its potential to enhance the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. Thus, based on the results of the validation, the automation of the evaluation process to support tender evaluation committee is achievable and can lead to a more proficient public sector tendering system.

Keywords: e-Tendering, e-Procurement, public tendering, tender evaluation, tender evaluation committee, web-based group decision support system.

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe the propagation of local errors in this method, and show that the global order of RK5GL3 is expected to be six, one better than the underlying Runge- Kutta method.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, order, local error, global error.

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich, T. Kruehong

Abstract:

An important technique in stability theory for differential equations is known as the direct method of Lyapunov. In this work we deal global stability properties of Leptospirosis transmission model by age group in Thailand. First we consider the data from Division of Epidemiology Ministry of Public Health, Thailand between 1997-2011. Then we construct the mathematical model for leptospirosis transmission by eight age groups. The Lyapunov functions are used for our model which takes the forms of an Ordinary Differential Equation system. The globally asymptotically for equilibrium states are analyzed.

Keywords: Age Group, Leptospirosis, Lyapunov Function, Ordinary Differential Equation.

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Authors: Saktioto, F.D Ismail, P.P. Yupapin, J. Ali

Abstract:

The equilibrium process of plasma nitrogen species by chemical kinetic reactions along various pressures is successfully investigated. The equilibrium process is required in industrial application to obtain the stable condition when heating up the material for having homogenous reaction. Nitrogen species densities is modeled by a continuity equation and extended Arrhenius form. These equations are used to integrate the change of density over the time. The integration is to acquire density and the reaction rate of each reaction where temperature and time dependence are imposed. A comparison is made with global model within pressure range of 1- 100mTorr and the temperature of electron is set to be higher than other nitrogen species. The results shows that the chemical kinetic model only agrees for high pressure because of no power imposed; while the global model considers the external power along the pressure range then the electron and nitrogen species give highly quantity densities by factor of 3 to 5.

Keywords: chemical kinetic model, Arrhenius equation, nitrogen plasma, low pressure discharge

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Authors: Zeynep Orman, Sabri Arik

Abstract:

This paper presents a new sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with multiple time delays. The results establish a relationship between the network parameters of the neural system independently of the delay parameters. The results are also compared with the previously reported results in the literature.

Keywords: Equilibrium and stability analysis, Cohen-Grossberg Neural Networks, Lyapunov Functionals.

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Authors: Zhao Linfei, Gu Qingliang

Abstract:

China apparel industry, which is deeply embedded in the global production network (GPN), faces the dual pressures of social upgrading and economic upgrading. Based on the survey in Ningbo apparel cluster, the paper shows the state of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in China apparel industry is better than before. And the investigation indicates that the firms who practice CSR actively perform better both socially and economically than those who inactively. The research demonstrates that CSR can be an initial capital rather than cost, and “doing well by doing good" is also existed in labor intensive industry.

Keywords: Global production network, corporate social responsibility, China apparel industry.

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

Abstract:

Several meteorological parameters were used for the  prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on  horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological  data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine  duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design  and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based  prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system  based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the  proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results  were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing  empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the  advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series  solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Networks, Global Solar Radiation, Multi-layer perceptron, gradient, Root Mean Square Error.

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

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The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: Lili Wang, Meng Hu

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with variable delays are studied on almost periodic time scales, some sufficient conditions are established for the existence and global exponential stability of the almost periodic solution. These results have important leading significance in designs and applications of RNNs. Finally, two examples and numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Recurrent neural network, Almost periodic solution, Global exponential stability, Time scale.

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Authors: S. S. Dol

Abstract:

Improvement in vehicle efficiency can reduce global fossil fuels consumptions. For that sole reason, Shell Global Corporation introduces Shell Eco-marathon where student teams require to design, build and test energy-efficient vehicles. Hence, this paper will focus on design processes and the development of a fuel economic vehicle which satisfying the requirements of the competition. In this project, three components are designed and analyzed, which are the body, chassis and powertrain of the vehicle. Optimum design for each component is produced through simulation analysis and theoretical calculation in which improvement is made as the project progresses.

Keywords: Energy efficient vehicle, drag force, chassis, powertrain.

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Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

Abstract:

Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: Arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation.

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