Search results for: Decision Theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2886

Search results for: Decision Theory

1596 Aligning IS Development with Users- Work Habits

Authors: Abbas Moshref Razavi, Rodina Ahmad

Abstract:

As a primitive assumption, if a new information system is able to remind users their old work habits, it should have a better opportunity to be accepted, adopted and finally, utilized. In this paper some theoretical concepts borrowed from psychodynamic theory e.g. ego defenses are discussed to show how such resemblance can be made without necessarily affecting the performance of the new system. The main assertion is a new system should somehow imitate old work habits, not literally, but through following their paces in terms of the order of habitual tensional states including stimulation, defensive actions and satisfactions.

Keywords: information Systems, users' habits, psychodynamic

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1595 Evolutionary Design of Polynomial Controller

Authors: R. Matousek, S. Lang, P. Minar, P. Pivonka

Abstract:

In the control theory one attempts to find a controller that provides the best possible performance with respect to some given measures of performance. There are many sorts of controllers e.g. a typical PID controller, LQR controller, Fuzzy controller etc. In the paper will be introduced polynomial controller with novel tuning method which is based on the special pole placement encoding scheme and optimization by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The examples will show the performance of the novel designed polynomial controller with comparison to common PID controller.

Keywords: Evolutionary design, Genetic algorithms, PID controller, Pole placement, Polynomial controller

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1594 Application of a New Efficient Normal Parameter Reduction Algorithm of Soft Sets in Online Shopping

Authors: Xiuqin Ma, Hongwu Qin

Abstract:

A new efficient normal parameter reduction algorithm of soft set in decision making was proposed. However, up to the present, few documents have focused on real-life applications of this algorithm. Accordingly, we apply a New Efficient Normal Parameter Reduction algorithm into real-life datasets of online shopping, such as Blackberry Mobile Phone Dataset. Experimental results show that this algorithm is not only suitable but feasible for dealing with the online shopping.

Keywords: Normal parameter reduction, Online shopping, Parameter reduction, Soft sets.

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1593 Reasoning with Dynamic Domains and Computer Security

Authors: Yun Bai

Abstract:

Representing objects in a dynamic domain is essential in commonsense reasoning under some circumstances. Classical logics and their nonmonotonic consequences, however, are usually not able to deal with reasoning with dynamic domains due to the fact that every constant in the logical language denotes some existing object in the static domain. In this paper, we explore a logical formalization which allows us to represent nonexisting objects in commonsense reasoning. A formal system named N-theory is proposed for this purpose and its possible application in computer security is briefly discussed.

Keywords: knowledge representation and reasoning, commonsensereasoning, computer security

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1592 Bifurcation Analysis for a Physiological Control System with Delay

Authors: Kejun Zhuang

Abstract:

In this paper, a delayed physiological control system is investigated. The sufficient conditions for stability of positive equilibrium and existence of local Hopf bifurcation are derived. Furthermore, global existence of periodic solutions is established by using the global Hopf bifurcation theory. Finally, numerical examples are given to support the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Physiological control system, global Hopf bifurcation, periodic solutions.

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1591 Development of Researcher Knowledge in Mathematics Education: Towards a Confluence Framework

Authors: I. Kontorovich, R. Zazkis

Abstract:

We present a framework of researcher knowledge development in conducting a study in mathematics education. The key components of the framework are: knowledge germane to conducting a particular study, processes of knowledge accumulation, and catalyzing filters that influence a researcher decision making. The components of the framework originated from a confluence between constructs and theories in Mathematics Education, Higher Education and Sociology. Drawing on a self-reflective interview with a leading researcher in mathematics education, Professor Michèle Artigue, we illustrate how the framework can be utilized in data analysis. Criteria for framework evaluation are discussed.

Keywords: Community of practice, knowledge development, mathematics education research, researcher knowledge.

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1590 Global Existence of Periodic Solutions in a Delayed Tri–neuron Network

Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

In this paper, a tri–neuron network model with time delay is investigated. By using the Bendixson-s criterion for high– dimensional ordinary differential equations and global Hopf bifurcation theory for functional differential equations, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions when the time delay is sufficiently large are established.

Keywords: Delay, global Hopf bifurcation, neural network, periodicsolutions.

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1589 New Algorithms for Finding Short Reset Sequences in Synchronizing Automata

Authors: Adam Roman

Abstract:

Finding synchronizing sequences for the finite automata is a very important problem in many practical applications (part orienters in industry, reset problem in biocomputing theory, network issues etc). Problem of finding the shortest synchronizing sequence is NP-hard, so polynomial algorithms probably can work only as heuristic ones. In this paper we propose two versions of polynomial algorithms which work better than well-known Eppstein-s Greedy and Cycle algorithms.

Keywords: Synchronizing words, reset sequences, Černý Conjecture

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1588 A Comparison of Fuzzy Clustering Algorithms to Cluster Web Messages

Authors: Sara El Manar El Bouanani, Ismail Kassou

Abstract:

Our objective in this paper is to propose an approach capable of clustering web messages. The clustering is carried out by assigning, with a certain probability, texts written by the same web user to the same cluster based on Stylometric features and using fuzzy clustering algorithms. Focus in the present work is on comparing the most popular algorithms in fuzzy clustering theory namely, Fuzzy C-means, Possibilistic C-means and Fuzzy Possibilistic C-Means.

Keywords: Authorship detection, fuzzy clustering, profiling, stylometric features.

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1587 Positive Periodic Solutions for a Neutral Impulsive Delay Competition System

Authors: Daiming Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutral impulsive competition system with distributed delays is studied by using Mawhin-s coincidence degree theory and the mean value theorem of differential calculus. Sufficient conditions on the existence of positive periodic solution of the system are obtained.

Keywords: Neutral impulsive delay system, competitive system, coincidence degree, periodic solution, existence.

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1586 A Review on Stormwater Harvesting and Reuse

Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad G. Rasul, M. Masud K. Khan, M. Sharif I. I. Amir

Abstract:

Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometers with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban stormwater and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly stormwater is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of stormwater and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As stormwater is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing stormwater recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of stormwater harvesting and reuse. Numerical modeling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes stormwater quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through stormwater infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a stormwater harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of stormwater harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of stormwater harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of stormwater harvesting and reuse.

Keywords: Stormwater Management, Stormwater Harvesting and Reuse, Numerical Modeling, Geographic Information System (GIS), Decision Support System (DSS), Database.

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1585 The Influence of Fashion Bloggers on the Pre-Purchase Decision for Online Fashion Products among Generation Y Female Malaysian Consumers

Authors: Mohd Zaimmudin Mohd Zain, Patsy Perry, Lee Quinn

Abstract:

This study explores how fashion consumers are influenced by fashion bloggers towards pre-purchase decision for online fashion products in a non-Western context. Malaysians rank among the world’s most avid online shoppers, with apparel the third most popular purchase category. However, extant research on fashion blogging focuses on the developed Western market context. Numerous international fashion retailers have entered the Malaysian market from luxury to fast fashion segments of the market; however Malaysian fashion consumers must balance religious and social norms for modesty with their dress style and adoption of fashion trends. Consumers increasingly mix and match Islamic and Western elements of dress to create new styles enabling them to follow Western fashion trends whilst paying respect to social and religious norms. Social media have revolutionised the way that consumers can search for and find information about fashion products. For online fashion brands with no physical presence, social media provide a means of discovery for consumers. By allowing the creation and exchange of user-generated content (UGC) online, they provide a public forum that gives individual consumers their own voices, as well as access to product information that facilitates their purchase decisions. Social media empower consumers and brands have important roles in facilitating conversations among consumers and themselves, to help consumers connect with them and one another. Fashion blogs have become an important fashion information sources. By sharing their personal style and inspiring their followers with what they wear on popular social media platforms such as Instagram, fashion bloggers have become fashion opinion leaders. By creating UGC to spread useful information to their followers, they influence the pre-purchase decision. Hence, successful Western fashion bloggers such as Chiara Ferragni may earn millions of US dollars every year, and some have created their own fashion ranges and beauty products, become judges in fashion reality shows, won awards, and collaborated with high street and luxury brands. As fashion blogging has become more established worldwide, increasing numbers of fashion bloggers have emerged from non-Western backgrounds to promote Islamic fashion styles, such as Hassanah El-Yacoubi and Dian Pelangi. This study adopts a qualitative approach using netnographic content analysis of consumer comments on two famous Malaysian fashion bloggers’ Instagram accounts during January-March 2016 and qualitative interviews with 16 Malaysian Generation Y fashion consumers during September-October 2016. Netnography adapts ethnographic techniques to the study of online communities or computer-mediated communications. Template analysis of the data involved coding comments according to the theoretical framework, which was developed from the literature review. Initial data analysis shows the strong influence of Malaysian fashion bloggers on their followers in terms of lifestyle and morals as well as fashion style. Followers were guided towards the mix and match trend of dress with Western and Islamic elements, for example, showing how vivid colours or accessories could be worked into an outfit whilst still respecting social and religious norms. The blogger’s Instagram account is a form of online community where followers can communicate and gain guidance and support from other followers, as well as from the blogger.

Keywords: Fashion bloggers, Malaysia, qualitative, social media.

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1584 GIS-based Approach for Land-Use Analysis: A Case Study

Authors: M. Giannopoulou, I. Roukounis, A. Roukouni.

Abstract:

Geographical Information Systems are an integral part of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database management systems and models within a single user interface machine and they are important tools in spatial design for evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration. This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and interpretation of the results.

Keywords: Databases, Geographical information systems (GIS), Land-use planning, Metro stations

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1583 Persistence of Termination for Non-Overlapping Term Rewriting Systems

Authors: Munehiro Iwami

Abstract:

A property is called persistent if for any many-sorted term rewriting system , has the property if and only if term rewriting system , which results from by omitting its sort information, has the property. In this paper,we show that termination is persistent for non-overlapping term rewriting systems and we give the example as application of this result. Furthermore we obtain that completeness is persistent for non-overlapping term rewriting systems.

Keywords: Theory of computing, Model-based reasoning, termrewriting system, termination

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1582 A Business Intelligence System Design Based on ASP Platform

Authors: Fengchi Shen, Rongtao Ding

Abstract:

The Informational Infrastructures of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises are relatively poor, there are serious shortages of capitals which can be invested in informatization construction, computer hardware and software resources, and human resources. To address the informatization issue in small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and enable them to the application of advanced management thinking and enhance their competitiveness, the paper establish a manufacturing-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises informatization platform based on the ASP business intelligence technology, which effectively improves the scientificity of enterprises decision and management informatization.

Keywords: ASP, business intelligence, data warehouse.

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1581 Is School Misbehavior a Decision? Implications for School Guidance

Authors: Rachel C. F. Sun

Abstract:

This study examined the predictive effects of moral competence, prosocial norms and positive behavior recognition on school misbehavior among Chinese junior secondary school students. Results of multiple regression analysis showed that students were more likely to misbehave in school when they had lower levels of moral competence and prosocial norms, and when they perceived their positive behavior being less likely recognized. Practical implications were discussed on how to guide students to make the right choices to behave appropriately in school. Implications for future research were also discussed.

Keywords: Moral competence, positive behavior recognition, prosocial norms, school misbehavior.

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1580 MovieReco: A Recommendation System

Authors: Dipankaj G Medhi, Juri Dakua

Abstract:

Recommender Systems act as personalized decision guides, aiding users in decisions on matters related to personal taste. Most previous research on Recommender Systems has focused on the statistical accuracy of the algorithms driving the systems, with no emphasis on the trustworthiness of the user. RS depends on information provided by different users to gather its knowledge. We believe, if a large group of users provide wrong information it will not be possible for the RS to arrive in an accurate conclusion. The system described in this paper introduce the concept of Testing the knowledge of user to filter out these “bad users". This paper emphasizes on the mechanism used to provide robust and effective recommendation.

Keywords: Collaborative Filtering, Content Based Filtering, Intelligent Agent, Level of Interest, Recommendation System.

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1579 Analysis of Complex Quadrature Mirror Filter Banks

Authors: Chimin Tsai

Abstract:

This work consists of three parts. First, the alias-free condition for the conventional two-channel quadrature mirror filter bank is analyzed using complex arithmetic. Second, the approach developed in the first part is applied to the complex quadrature mirror filter bank. Accordingly, the structure is simplified and the theory is easier to follow. Finally, a new class of complex quadrature mirror filter banks is proposed. Interesting properties of this new structure are also discussed.

Keywords: Aliasing cancellation, complex signal processing, polyphase realization, quadrature mirror filter banks.

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1578 Capacity Optimization in Cooperative Cognitive Radio Networks

Authors: Mahdi Pirmoradian, Olayinka Adigun, Christos Politis

Abstract:

Cooperative spectrum sensing is a crucial challenge in cognitive radio networks. Cooperative sensing can increase the reliability of spectrum hole detection, optimize sensing time and reduce delay in cooperative networks. In this paper, an efficient central capacity optimization algorithm is proposed to minimize cooperative sensing time in a homogenous sensor network using OR decision rule subject to the detection and false alarm probabilities constraints. The evaluation results reveal significant improvement in the sensing time and normalized capacity of the cognitive sensors.

Keywords: Cooperative networks, normalized capacity, sensing time.

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1577 Order Penetration Point Location using Fuzzy Quadratic Programming

Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper addresses one of the most important issues have been considered in hybrid MTS/MTO production environments. To cope with the problem, a mathematical programming model is applied from a tactical point of view. The model is converted to a fuzzy goal programming model, because a degree of uncertainty is involved in hybrid MTS/MTO context. Finally, application of the proposed model in an industrial center is reported and the results prove the validity of the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets theory, Hybrid MTS/MTO, Order penetration point, Quadratic programming.

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1576 The Proposal of a Shared Mobility City Index to Support Investment Decision Making for Carsharing

Authors: S. Murr, S. Phillips

Abstract:

One of the biggest challenges entering a market with a carsharing or any other shared mobility (SM) service is sound investment decision-making. To support this process, the authors think that a city index evaluating different criteria is necessary. The goal of such an index is to benchmark cities along a set of external measures to answer the main two challenges: financially viability and the understanding of its specific requirements. The authors have consulted several shared mobility projects and industry experts to create such a Shared Mobility City Index (SMCI). The current proposal of the SMCI consists of 11 individual index measures: general data (demographics, geography, climate and city culture), shared mobility landscape (current SM providers, public transit options, commuting patterns and driving culture) and political vision and goals (vision of the Mayor, sustainability plan, bylaws/tenders supporting SM). To evaluate the suitability of the index, 16 cities on the East Coast of North America were selected and secondary research was conducted. The main sources of this study were census data, organisational records, independent press releases and informational websites. Only non-academic sources where used because the relevant data for the chosen cities is not published in academia. Applying the index measures to the selected cities resulted in three major findings. Firstly, density (city area divided by number of inhabitants) is not an indicator for the number of SM services offered: the city with the lowest density has five bike and carsharing options. Secondly, there is a direct correlation between commuting patterns and how many shared mobility services are offered. New York, Toronto and Washington DC have the highest public transit ridership and the most shared mobility providers. Lastly, except one, all surveyed cities support shared mobility with their sustainability plan. The current version of the shared mobility index is proving a practical tool to evaluate cities, and to understand functional, political, social and environmental considerations. More cities will have to be evaluated to refine the criteria further. However, the current version of the index can be used to assess cities on their suitability for shared mobility services and will assist investors deciding which city is a financially viable market.

Keywords: Carsharing, transportation, urban planning, shared mobility city index.

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1575 Multiple Periodic Solutions for a Delayed Predator-prey System on Time Scales

Authors: Xiaoquan Ding, Jianmin Hao, Changwen Liu

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to a delayed periodic predatorprey system with non-monotonic numerical response on time scales. With the help of a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory, we establish easily verifiable criteria for the existence of multiple periodic solutions. As corollaries, some applications are listed. In particular, our results improve and generalize some known ones.

Keywords: Predator-prey system, periodic solution, time scale, delay, coincidence degree.

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1574 Vocational Skills, Recognition of Prior Learning and Technology: The Future of Higher Education

Authors: Shankar Subramanian Iyer

Abstract:

The vocational education, enhanced by technology and Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) is going to be the main ingredient of the future of education. This is coming from the various issues of the current educational system like cost, time, type of course, type of curriculum, unemployment, to name the major reasons. Most millennials like to perform and learn rather than learning how to perform. This is the essence of vocational education be it any field from cooking, painting, plumbing to modern technologies using computers. Even a more theoretical course like entrepreneurship can be taught as to be an entrepreneur and learn about its nuances. The best way to learn accountancy is actually keeping accounts for a small business or grocer and learn the ropes of accountancy and finance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between vocational skills, RPL and new technologies with future employability. This study implies that individual's knowledge and skills are essential aspects to be emphasized in future education and to give credit for prior experience for future employability. Virtual reality can be used to stimulate workplace situations for vocational learning for fields like hospitality, medical emergencies, healthcare, draughtsman ship, building inspection, quantity surveying, estimation, to name a few. All disruptions in future education, especially vocational education, are going to be technology driven with the advent of AI, ML, IoT, VR, VI etc. Vocational education not only helps institutes cut costs drastically, but allows all students to have hands-on experiences, rather than to be observers. The earlier experiential learning theory and the recent theory of knowledge and skills-based learning modified and applied to the vocational education and development of skills is the proposed contribution of this paper. Apart from secondary research study on major scholarly articles, books, primary research using interviews, questionnaire surveys have been used to validate and test the reliability of the suggested model using Partial Least Square- Structural Equation Method (PLS-SEM), the factors being assimilated using an existing literature review. Major findings have been that there exists high relationship between the vocational skills, RPL, new technology to the future employability through mediation of future employability skills.

Keywords: Vocational education, vocational skills, competencies, modern technologies, Recognition of Prior Learning, RPL.

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1573 An Approach for a Bidding Process Knowledge Capitalization

Authors: R. Chalal, A. R. Ghomari

Abstract:

Preparation and negotiation of innovative and future projects can be characterized as a strategic-type decision situation, involving many uncertainties and an unpredictable environment. We will focus in this paper on the bidding process. It includes cooperative and strategic decisions. Our approach for bidding process knowledge capitalization is aimed at information management in project-oriented organizations, based on the MUSIC (Management and Use of Co-operative Information Systems) model. We will show how to capitalize the company strategic knowledge and also how to organize the corporate memory. The result of the adopted approach is improvement of corporate memory quality.

Keywords: Bidding process, corporate memory, Knowledge capitalization, knowledge acquisition, strategic decisions.

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1572 An Iterated Function System for Reich Contraction in Complete b Metric Space

Authors: R. Uthayakumar, G. Arockia Prabakar

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce R Iterated Function System and employ the Hutchinson Barnsley theory (HB) to construct a fractal set as its unique fixed point by using Reich contractions in a complete b metric space. We discuss about well posedness of fixed point problem for b metric space.

Keywords: Fractals, Iterated Function System, Compact set, Reich Contraction, Well posedness.

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1571 Logistical Optimization of Nuclear Waste Flows during Decommissioning

Authors: G. Dottavio, M. F. Andrade, F. Renard, V. Cheutet, A.-L. L. S. Vercraene, P. Hoang, S. Briet, R. Dachicourt, Y. Baizet

Abstract:

An important number of technological equipment and high-skilled workers over long periods of time have to be mobilized during nuclear decommissioning processes. The related operations generate complex flows of waste and high inventory levels, associated to information flows of heterogeneous types. Taking into account that more than 10 decommissioning operations are on-going in France and about 50 are expected toward 2025: A big challenge is addressed today. The management of decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installations represents an important part of the nuclear-based energy lifecycle, since it has an environmental impact as well as an important influence on the electricity cost and therefore the price for end-users. Bringing new technologies and new solutions into decommissioning methodologies is thus mandatory to improve the quality, cost and delay efficiency of these operations. The purpose of our project is to improve decommissioning management efficiency by developing a decision-support framework dedicated to plan nuclear facility decommissioning operations and to optimize waste evacuation by means of a logistic approach. The target is to create an easy-to-handle tool capable of i) predicting waste flows and proposing the best decommissioning logistics scenario and ii) managing information during all the steps of the process and following the progress: planning, resources, delays, authorizations, saturation zones, waste volume, etc. In this article we present our results from waste nuclear flows simulation during decommissioning process, including discrete-event simulation supported by FLEXSIM 3-D software. This approach was successfully tested and our works confirms its ability to improve this type of industrial process by identifying the critical points of the chain and optimizing it by identifying improvement actions. This type of simulation, executed before the start of the process operations on the basis of a first conception, allow ‘what-if’ process evaluation and help to ensure quality of the process in an uncertain context. The simulation of nuclear waste flows before evacuation from the site will help reducing the cost and duration of the decommissioning process by optimizing the planning and the use of resources, transitional storage and expensive radioactive waste containers. Additional benefits are expected for the governance system of the waste evacuation since it will enable a shared responsibility of the waste flows.

Keywords: Nuclear decommissioning, logistical optimization, decision-support framework, waste management.

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1570 Feasible Traits of TV and Web as Media for Advertisements and Their Influences on Buying Behavior– A Comparative Study on Indian Perspective

Authors: K. Pongiannan

Abstract:

Advertising is one of the important marketing strategies and the choice of media is an important aspect of effectiveness of advertising media. The two most popular advertising media, TV and web media are highly effective in creating successful advertisements as they influence the purchase decision of the viewers. Although TV and web are electronic media, they are unique in their features and traits of advertising. Hence, the present study attempts to analyze the influence of these two media towards buying behavior of the viewers. The two media are analyzed separately to determine its level of influence towards buying behavior and finally a comparative analysis of these media is attempted to find the difference in their level of influence.

Keywords: Buying Behavior, TV, web, media for advertisements.

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1569 Unconditionally Secure Quantum Payment System

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A potentially serious problem with current payment systems is that their underlying hard problems from number theory may be solved by either a quantum computer or unanticipated future advances in algorithms and hardware. A new quantum payment system is proposed in this paper. The suggested system makes use of fundamental principles of quantum mechanics to ensure the unconditional security without prior arrangements between customers and vendors. More specifically, the new system uses Greenberger-Home-Zeilinger (GHZ) states and Quantum Key Distribution to authenticate the vendors and guarantee the transaction integrity.

Keywords: Bell state, GHZ state, Quantum key distribution, Quantum payment system.

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1568 Transmission Expansion Planning with Economic Dispatch and N-1Constraints

Authors: A. Charlangsut, M. Boonthienthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

Abstract:

This paper proposes a mathematical model for transmission expansion employing optimization method with scenario analysis approach. Economic transmission planning, on the other hand, seeks investment opportunities so that network expansions can generate more economic benefits than the costs. This approach can be used as a decision model for building new transmission lines added to the existing transmission system minimizing costs of the entire system subject to various system’s constraints and consider of loss value of transmission system and N-1 checking. The results show that the proposed model is efficient to be applied for the larger scale of power system topology.

Keywords: Transmission Expansion Planning, Economic Dispatch, Scenario Analysis, Contingency.

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1567 Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications

Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

Abstract:

Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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