Search results for: prediction error

Authors: Mohammad Saleh Tavazoei, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

This paper presents comparison among methods of determination of the characteristic polynomial coefficients. First, the resultant systems from the methods are compared based on frequency criteria such as the closed loop bandwidth, gain and phase margins. Then the step responses of the resultant systems are compared on the basis of the transient behavior criteria including overshoot, rise time, settling time and error (via IAE, ITAE, ISE and ITSE integral indices). Also relative stability of the systems is compared together. Finally the best choices in regards to the above diverse criteria are presented.

Keywords: Characteristic Polynomial, Transient Response, Filters, Stability.

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Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Zahra Mohebi

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In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term temperature forecasting (STTF) Systems for Kermanshah city, west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STTF systems is used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using ten years (1996-2006) meteorological data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STTF systems.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Weather, Multi-layer perceptron.

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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Authors: Ľubomír Gajdoš, Martin Šperl

Abstract:

This study offers a new simple method for assessing an axial part-through crack in a pipe wall. The method utilizes simple approximate expressions for determining the fracture parameters K, J, and employs these parameters to determine critical dimensions of a crack on the basis of equality between the J-integral and the J-based fracture toughness of the pipe steel. The crack tip constraint is taken into account by the so-called plastic constraint factor C, by which the uniaxial yield stress in the J-integral equation is multiplied. The results of the prediction of the fracture condition are verified by burst tests on test pipes.

Keywords: Axial crack, Fracture-mechanics, J integral, Pipeline wall.

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Authors: M. H. Chan

Abstract:

This paper describes an application of a dual satellite geolocation (DSG) system on identifying and locating the unknown source of uplink sweeping interference. The geolocation system integrates the method of joint time difference of arrival (TDOA) and frequency difference of arrival (FDOA) with ephemeris correction technique which successfully demonstrated high accuracy in interference source location. The factors affecting the location error were also discussed.

Keywords: Dual satellite geolocation system, DGS, geolocation, TDOA/FDOA, and sweeping interference

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Authors: Dmitry D. Zakharov

Abstract:

The theoretical prediction of the acoustical polarization effects in the heterogeneous composites, made of thick elastic solids with thin nematic films, is presented. The numericalanalytical solution to the problem of the different wave propagation exhibits some new physical effects in the low frequency domain: the appearance of the critical frequency and the existence of the narrow transition zone where the wave rapidly changes its speed. The associated wave attenuation is highly perturbed in this zone. We also show the possible appearance of the critical frequencies where the attenuation changes the sign. The numerical results of parametrical analysis are presented and discussed.

Keywords: Surface wave, guided wave, heterogeneous composite, nematic coating.

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Authors: Elragig Aiman, Dreiwi Hanan, Townley Stuart, Elmabrook Idriss

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In this paper, we reconsider the analysis of the Oregonator model. We highlight an error in this analysis which leads to an incorrect depiction of the parameter region in which diffusion driven instability is possible. We believe that the cause of the oversight is the complexity of stability analyses based on eigenvalues and the dependence on parameters of matrix minors appearing in stability calculations. We regenerate the parameter space where Turing patterns can be seen, and we use the common Lyapunov function (CLF) approach, which is numerically reliable, to further confirm the dependence of the results on diffusion coefficients intensities.

Keywords: Diffusion driven instability, common Lyapunov function (CLF), turing pattern, positive-definite matrix.

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Authors: Arshia Azam, J. Amarnath, Ch. D. V. Paradesi Rao

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The advantage of solving the complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy logic methodologies is that the experience or expert-s knowledge described as a fuzzy rule base can be directly embedded into the systems for dealing with the problems. The current limitation of appropriate and automated designing of fuzzy controllers are focused in this paper. The structure discovery and parameter adjustment of the Branched T-S fuzzy model is addressed by a hybrid technique of type constrained sparse tree algorithms. The simulation result for different system model is evaluated and the identification error is observed to be minimum.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, branch T-S fuzzy model, tree modeling, complex nonlinear system.

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Authors: Ebrahim Farshidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a new circuit arrangement for a current-mode Wheatstone bridge that is suitable for low-voltage integrated circuits implementation. Compared to the other proposed circuits, this circuit features severe reduction of the elements number, low supply voltage (1V) and low power consumption (<350uW). In addition, the circuit has favorable nonlinearity error (<0.35%), operate with multiple sensors and works by single supply voltage. The circuit employs MOSFET transistors, so it can be used for standard CMOS fabrication. Simulation results by HSPICE show high performance of the circuit and confirm the validity of the proposed design technique.

Keywords: Wheatstone bridge, current-mode, low-voltage, MOS.

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Authors: P. R. Jayathilaka, K.L. Jayaratne, H.L. Premaratne

Abstract:

This research presented in this paper is an on-going project of an application of neural network and fuzzy models to evaluate the sociological factors which affect the educational performance of the students in Sri Lanka. One of its major goals is to prepare the grounds to device a counseling tool which helps these students for a better performance at their examinations, especially at their G.C.E O/L (General Certificate of Education-Ordinary Level) examination. Closely related sociological factors are collected as raw data and the noise of these data are filtered through the fuzzy interface and the supervised neural network is being utilized to recognize the performance patterns against the chosen social factors.

Keywords: Education, Fuzzy, neural network, prediction, Sociology

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Authors: Krzysztof Fujarewicz

Abstract:

This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.

Keywords: Mobile robot, sensors, prediction, anticipation.

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Authors: H. B. Kekre, Tanuja K. Sarode

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Mostly transforms are used for speech data compressions which are lossy algorithms. Such algorithms are tolerable for speech data compression since the loss in quality is not perceived by the human ear. However the vector quantization (VQ) has a potential to give more data compression maintaining the same quality. In this paper we propose speech data compression algorithm using vector quantization technique. We have used VQ algorithms LBG, KPE and FCG. The results table shows computational complexity of these three algorithms. Here we have introduced a new performance parameter Average Fractional Change in Speech Sample (AFCSS). Our FCG algorithm gives far better performance considering mean absolute error, AFCSS and complexity as compared to others.

Keywords: Vector Quantization, Data Compression, Encoding, , Speech coding.

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Authors: J. T. Manhire

Abstract:

A tax authority wants to take actions it knows will foster the greatest degree of voluntary taxpayer compliance to reduce the “tax gap.” This paper suggests that even if a tax authority could attain a state of complete knowledge, there are constraints on whether and to what extent such actions would result in reducing the macro-level tax gap. These limits are not merely a consequence of finite agency resources. They are inherent in the system itself. To show that this is one possible interpretation of the tax gap data, the paper formulates known results in a different way by analyzing tax compliance as a population with a single covariate. This leads to a standard use of the logistic map to analyze the dynamics of non-compliance growth or decay over a sequence of periods. This formulation gives the same results as the tax gap studies performed over the past fifty years in the U.S. given the published margins of error. Limitations and recommendations for future work are discussed, along with some implications for tax policy.

Keywords: Tax law, tax compliance, tax gap, income tax.

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Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

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This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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Authors: S. Hajeb, M. Javadi, S. M. Hashemi, P. Parvizi

Abstract:

Road Traffic Accidents are a major cause of disability and death throughout the world. The control of intelligent vehicles in order to reduce human error and boost ease congestion is not accomplished solely by the aid of human resources. The present article is an attempt to introduce an intelligent control system based on RFID technology. By the help of RFID technology, vehicles are connected to computerized systems, intelligent light poles and other available hardware along the way. In this project, intelligent control system is capable of tracking all vehicles, crisis management and control, traffic guidance and recording Driving offences along the highway.

Keywords: RFID, Intelligent highway, Traffic violation

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Authors: Archit Yajnik

Abstract:

Part of Speech Tagging has always been a challenging task in the era of Natural Language Processing. This article presents POS tagging for Nepali text using Hidden Markov Model and Viterbi algorithm. From the Nepali text, annotated corpus training and testing data set are randomly separated. Both methods are employed on the data sets. Viterbi algorithm is found to be computationally faster and accurate as compared to HMM. The accuracy of 95.43% is achieved using Viterbi algorithm. Error analysis where the mismatches took place is elaborately discussed.

Keywords: Hidden Markov model, Viterbi algorithm, POS tagging, natural language processing.

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Authors: Taiwo. M. Akinmuyisitan, John Cosmas

Abstract:

This paper practically demonstrates the theories and concepts of an Advanced Convolutional Neural Network in the design and development of a scalable artificial intelligence model for the detection of criminal masterminds. The technique uses machine vision algorithms to compute the facial characteristics of suspects and classify actors as criminal or non-criminal faces. The paper proceeds further to compare the results of the error accuracy of two popular custom convolutional pre-trained networks, VGG16 and Resnet50. The result shows that VGG16 is probably more efficient than ResNet50 for the dataset we used.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, Resnet50, VGG16.

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Authors: Raid R. O. Al-Nima, S. S. Dlay, W. L. Woo

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A relationship between face and signature biometrics is established in this paper. A new approach is developed to predict faces from signatures by using artificial intelligence. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is used to generate face details from features extracted from signatures, here face is the physical biometric and signatures is the behavioural biometric. The new method establishes a relationship between the two biometrics and regenerates a visible face image from the signature features. Furthermore, the performance efficiencies of our new technique are demonstrated in terms of minimum error rates compared to published work.

Keywords: Behavioural biometric, Face biometric, Neural network, Physical biometric, Signature biometric.

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Authors: Magdalena Pejas

Abstract:

This article concerns the presentation of an integrated method for detection of steganographic content embedded by new unknown programs. The method is based on data mining and aggregated hypothesis testing. The article contains the theoretical basics used to deploy the proposed detection system and the description of improvement proposed for the basic system idea. Further main results of experiments and implementation details are collected and described. Finally example results of the tests are presented.

Keywords: Steganography, steganalysis, data embedding, data mining, feature extraction, knowledge base, system learning, hypothesis testing, error estimation, black box program, file structure.

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Hwan-Jun Choi, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Among spatial diversity scheme, orthogonal space-time block code (OSTBC) and cyclic delay diversity (CDD) have been widely studied for the cooperative wireless relaying system. However, conventional OSTBC and CDD cannot cope with change in the number of relays owing to low throughput or error performance. In this paper, we propose a cooperative cyclic delay diversity (CDD) scheme that use hierarchical modulation at the source and adaptive modulation based on cyclic redundancy check (CRC) code at the relays.

Keywords: Adaptive modulation, Cooperative communication, CDD, OSTBC.

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Authors: Cristian Chacha, David Asiain, Jesús Ponce de León, José Ramón Beltrán

Abstract:

This work explores and characterizes the behavior of the AFE AD5941 in impedance measurement using an embedded algorithm that allows using a constant current AC source. The main aim of this research is to improve the exact measurement of impedance values for their application in EDA-focused wearable devices. Through comprehensive study and characterization, it has been observed that employing a measurement sequence with a constant current source produces results with increased dispersion but higher accuracy and a more linear behavior with respect to error. As a result, this approach leads to a more accurate system for impedance measurement.

Keywords: Electrodermal Activity, constant current AC source, wearable, precision, accuracy, impedance.

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Authors: H. W. Ker

Abstract:

Longitudinal data typically have the characteristics of changes over time, nonlinear growth patterns, between-subjects variability, and the within errors exhibiting heteroscedasticity and dependence. The data exploration is more complicated than that of cross-sectional data. The purpose of this paper is to organize/integrate of various visual-graphical techniques to explore longitudinal data. From the application of the proposed methods, investigators can answer the research questions include characterizing or describing the growth patterns at both group and individual level, identifying the time points where important changes occur and unusual subjects, selecting suitable statistical models, and suggesting possible within-error variance.

Keywords: Data exploration, exploratory analysis, HLMs/LMEs, longitudinal data, visual-graphical methods.

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Authors: K.H.Khairul Anuar, K.I.Othman, F.Ishak, Z.B.Ibrahim, Z.Majid

Abstract:

Solving Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) by using Partitioning Block Intervalwise (PBI) technique is our aim in this paper. The PBI technique is based on Block Adams Method and Backward Differentiation Formula (BDF). Block Adams Method only use the simple iteration for solving while BDF requires Newtonlike iteration involving Jacobian matrix of ODEs which consumes a considerable amount of computational effort. Therefore, PBI is developed in order to reduce the cost of iteration within acceptable maximum error

Keywords: Adam Block Method, BDF, Ordinary Differential Equations, Partitioning Block Intervalwise

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Authors: Lenka Krulikovská, Jaroslav Polec

Abstract:

In this paper we present a method of abrupt cut detection with a novel logic of frames- comparison. Actual frame is compared with its motion estimated prediction instead of comparison with successive frame. Four different similarity metrics were employed to estimate the resemblance of compared frames. Obtained results were evaluated by standard used measures of test accuracy and compared with existing approach. Based on the results, we claim the proposed method is more effective and Pearson correlation coefficient obtained the best results among chosen similarity metrics.

Keywords: Abrupt cut, mutual information, shot cut detection, Pearson correlation coefficient.

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Authors: M. Zarebnia, R. Parvaz

Abstract:

In this paper the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation is solved numerically by collocation method. The solution is approximated as a linear combination of septic B-spline functions. Applying the Von-Neumann stability analysis technique, we show that the method is unconditionally stable. The method is applied on some test examples, and the numerical results have been compared with the exact solutions. The global relative error and L∞ in the solutions show the efficiency of the method computationally.

Keywords: Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, Septic B-spline, Collocation method, Finite difference.

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Authors: Susmita Sahoo, Madhumanti Datta, Rajib Kar

Abstract:

This work proposes an accurate crosstalk noise estimation method in the presence of multiple RLC lines for the use in design automation tools. This method correctly models the loading effects of non switching aggressors and aggressor tree branches using resistive shielding effect and realistic exponential input waveforms. Noise peak and width expressions have been derived. The results obtained are at good agreement with SPICE results. Results show that average error for noise peak is 4.7% and for the width is 6.15% while allowing a very fast analysis.

Keywords: Crosstalk, distributed RLC segments, On-Chip interconnect, output response, VLSI, noise peak, noise width.

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Authors: Aiping Liu, Xiaoping Ying, Jing Luo

Abstract:

53 college students answered questions regarding the circumstances in which they first heard about the news of Wenchuan earthquake or the news of their acceptance to college which took place approximately one year ago, and answered again two years later. The number of details recalled about their circumstances for both events was high and didn-t decline two years later. However, consistency in reported details over two years was low. Participants were more likely to construct central (e.g., Where were you?) than peripheral information (What were you wearing?), and the confidence of the central information was higher than peripheral information, which indicated that they constructed more when they were more confident.

Keywords: flashbulb memory, consistency, reconstructive error, confidence

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Authors: Y. Bentoutou, A.M. Si Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper presents a review of an 8-year study on radiation effects in commercial memory devices operating within the main on-board computer system OBC386 of the Algerian microsatellite Alsat-1. A statistical analysis of single-event upset (SEU) and multiple-bit upset (MBU) activity in these commercial memories shows that the typical SEU rate at alsat-1's orbit is 4.04 × 10-7 SEU/bit/day, where 98.6% of these SEUs cause single-bit errors, 1.22% cause double-byte errors, and the remaining SEUs result in multiple-bit and severe errors.

Keywords: Radiation effects, error detection and correction, satellite computer, small satellite mission.

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Authors: Hoda Waguih

Abstract:

A serious problem on the WWW is finding reliable information. Not everything found on the Web is true and the Semantic Web does not change that in any way. The problem will be even more crucial for the Semantic Web, where agents will be integrating and using information from multiple sources. Thus, if an incorrect premise is used due to a single faulty source, then any conclusions drawn may be in error. Thus, statements published on the Semantic Web have to be seen as claims rather than as facts, and there should be a way to decide which among many possibly inconsistent sources is most reliable. In this work, we propose a trust model for the Semantic Web. The proposed model is inspired by the use trust in human society. Trust is a type of social knowledge and encodes evaluations about which agents can be taken as reliable sources of information or services. Our proposed model allows agents to decide which among different sources of information to trust and thus act rationally on the semantic web.

Keywords: Semantic Web, Trust, Web of Trust, WWW.

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Authors: Ram Kumar Soni, Alok Jain, Rajiv Saxena

Abstract:

The tree structured approach of non-uniform filterbank (NUFB) is normally used in perfect reconstruction (PR). The PR is not always feasible due to certain limitations, i.e, constraints in selecting design parameters, design complexity and some times output is severely affected by aliasing error if necessary and sufficient conditions of PR is not satisfied perfectly. Therefore, there has been generalized interest of researchers to go for near perfect reconstruction (NPR). In this proposed work, an optimized tree structure technique is used for the design of NPR non-uniform filterbank. Window functions of Blackman family are used to design the prototype FIR filter. A single variable linear optimization is used to minimize the amplitude distortion. The main feature of the proposed design is its simplicity with linear phase property.

Keywords: Tree structure, NUFB, QMF, NPR.

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