Search results for: multiple econometric model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8564

Search results for: multiple econometric model

7604 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

Abstract:

ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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7603 Error Correction Method for 2D Ultra-Wideband Indoor Wireless Positioning System Using Logarithmic Error Model

Authors: Phornpat Chewasoonthorn, Surat Kwanmuang

Abstract:

Indoor positioning technologies have been evolved rapidly. They augment the Global Positioning System (GPS) which requires line-of-sight to the sky to track the location of people or objects. In this study, we developed an error correction method for an indoor real-time location system (RTLS) based on an ultra-wideband (UWB) sensor from Decawave. Multiple stationary nodes (anchor) were installed throughout the workspace. The distance between stationary and moving nodes (tag) can be measured using a two-way-ranging (TWR) scheme. The result has shown that the uncorrected ranging error from the sensor system can be as large as 1 m. To reduce ranging error and thus increase positioning accuracy, we present an online correction algorithm using the Kalman filter. The results from experiments have shown that the system can reduce ranging error down to 5 cm.

Keywords: Indoor positioning, ultra-wideband, error correction, Kalman filter.

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7602 Bifurcations of a Delayed Prototype Model

Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, a delayed prototype model is studied. Regarding the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that a sequence of Hopf bifurcations will occur at the positive equilibrium when the delay increases. Using the normal form method and center manifold theory, some explicit formulae are worked out for determining the stability and the direction of the bifurcated periodic solutions. Finally, Computer simulations are carried out to explain some mathematical conclusions.

Keywords: Prototype model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Periodic solution.

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7601 Pure and Mixed Nash Equilibria Domain of a Discrete Game Model with Dichotomous Strategy Space

Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

Abstract:

We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: Coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash Equilibrium, game theory.

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7600 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

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7599 Generic Model for Timetabling Problems by Integer Linear Programming Approach

Authors: N. A. H. Aizam, V. Uvaraja

Abstract:

The agenda of showing the scheduled time for performing certain tasks is known as timetabling. It is widely used in many departments such as transportation, education, and production. Some difficulties arise to ensure all tasks happen in the time and place allocated. Therefore, many researchers invented various programming models to solve the scheduling problems from several fields. However, the studies in developing the general integer programming model for many timetabling problems are still questionable. Meanwhile, this thesis describes about creating a general model which solves different types of timetabling problems by considering the basic constraints. Initially, the common basic constraints from five different fields are selected and analyzed. A general basic integer programming model was created and then verified by using the medium set of data obtained randomly which is much similar to realistic data. The mathematical software, AIMMS with CPLEX as a solver has been used to solve the model. The model obtained is significant in solving many timetabling problems easily since it is modifiable to all types of scheduling problems which have same basic constraints.

Keywords: AIMMS mathematical software, integer linear programming, scheduling problems, timetabling.

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7598 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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7597 Appling Eyring-s Accelerated Life Testing Model to “Times to Breakdown“ of Insulating Fluid: A Combined Approach of an Accelerated and a Sequential Life Testing

Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, D. Kipper

Abstract:

In this paper, the test purpose will be to assess whether or not the accelerated model proposed by Eyring will be able to translate results for the shape and scale parameters of an underlying Weibull model, obtained under two accelerating using conditions, to expected normal using condition results for these parameters. The product being analyzed is a new type of insulate fluid, and the accelerating factor is the voltage stresses applied to the fluid at two different levels (30KV and 40KV). The normal operating voltage is 25KV. In this case, it was possible to test the insulate fluid at normal voltage using condition. Both results for the two parameters of the Weibull model, obtained under normal using condition and translated from accelerated using conditions to normal conditions, will be compared to each other to assess the accuracy of the Eyring model when the accelerating factor is only the voltage stress.

Keywords: Eyring Accelerated Model, Sequential Life Testing, Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Voltage Stresses.

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7596 Determinate Fuzzy Set Ranking Analysis for Combat Aircraft Selection with Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Using the aid of Hausdorff distance function and Minkowski distance function, this study proposes a novel method for selecting combat aircraft for Air Force. In order to do this, the proximity measure method was developed with determinate fuzzy degrees based on the relationship between attributes and combat aircraft alternatives. The combat aircraft selection attributes were identified as payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthability, and survivability. Determinate fuzzy data from the combat aircraft attributes was then aggregated using the determinate fuzzy weighted arithmetic average operator. For the selection of combat aircraft, correlation analysis of the ranking order patterns of options was also examined. A numerical example from military aviation is used to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Combat aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, determinate fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Hausdorff distance function, Minkowski distance function, PMM, MCDM

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7595 Port Governance in Santos, Brazil: A Qualitative Approach

Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

Abstract:

Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the portlogistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Managers’ Perception.

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7594 Numerical Simulation of Progressive Collapse for a Reinforced Concrete Building

Authors: Han-Soo Kim, Jae-Gyun Ahn, Hyo-Seung Ahn

Abstract:

Though nonlinear dynamic analysis using a specialized hydro-code such as AUTODYN is accurate and useful tool for progressive collapse assessment of a multi-story building subjected to blast load, it takes too much time to be applied to a practical simulation of progressive collapse of a tall building. In this paper, blast analysis of a RC frame structure using a simplified model with Reinforcement Contact technique provided in Ansys Workbench was introduced and investigated on its accuracy. Even though the simplified model has a fraction of elements of the detailed model, the simplified model with this modeling technique shows similar structural behavior under the blast load to the detailed model. The proposed modeling method can be effectively applied to blast loading progressive collapse analysis of a RC frame structure.

Keywords: Autodyn, Blast Load, Progressive Collapse, Reinforcement Contact.

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7593 A New SIR-based Model for Influenza Epidemic

Authors: Kang-Hung Yang, Jin-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and negative social or economical influence on people and society. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1

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7592 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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7591 Artificial Visual Percepts for Image Understanding

Authors: Jeewanee Bamunusinghe, Damminda Alahakoon

Abstract:

Visual inputs are one of the key sources from which humans perceive the environment and 'understand' what is happening. Artificial systems perceive the visual inputs as digital images. The images need to be processed and analysed. Within the human brain, processing of visual inputs and subsequent development of perception is one of its major functionalities. In this paper we present part of our research project, which aims at the development of an artificial model for visual perception (or 'understanding') based on the human perceptive and cognitive systems. We propose a new model for perception from visual inputs and a way of understaning or interpreting images using the model. We demonstrate the implementation and use of the model with a real image data set.

Keywords: Image understanding, percept, visual perception.

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7590 A Study on Metal Hexagonal Honeycomb Crushing Under Quasi-Static Loading

Authors: M. Zarei Mahmoudabadi, M. Sadighi

Abstract:

In the study of honeycomb crushing under quasistatic loading, two parameters are important, the mean crushing stress and the wavelength of the folding mode. The previous theoretical models did not consider the true cylindrical curvature effects and the flow stress in the folding mode of honeycomb material. The present paper introduces a modification on Wierzbicki-s model based on considering two above mentioned parameters in estimating the mean crushing stress and the wavelength through implementation of the energy method. Comparison of the results obtained by the new model and Wierzbicki-s model with existing experimental data shows better prediction by the model presented in this paper.

Keywords: Crush strength, Flow stress, Honeycomb, Quasistatic load.

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7589 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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7588 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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7587 Dynamic Slope Scaling Procedure for Stochastic Integer Programming Problem

Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

Mathematical programming has been applied to various problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented as random variables, since they represent information about the future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk. Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful for a variety of design and operational problems.

Keywords: stochastic programming problem with recourse, simple integer recourse, dynamic slope scaling procedure

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7586 A Business Model Design Process for Social Enterprises: The Critical Role of the Environment

Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

Abstract:

Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: Social enterprise, business model, business model design.

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7585 Modeling ICT Adoption Factors for the Preservation of Indigenous Knowledge

Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

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7584 Advanced Model for Calculation of the Neutral Axis Shifting and the Wall Thickness Distribution in Rotary Draw Bending Processes

Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

Abstract:

Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf =bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf = diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: Rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution.

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7583 Gendered Power Relations in the School:Construction of Schoolgirl Femininities in a Turkish High School

Authors: Alev Ozkazanc, Fevziye Sayılan

Abstract:

In this paper our aim is to explore the construction of schoolgirl femininities, drawing on the results of an ethnographic study conducted in a high school in Ankara, Turkey. In this case study which tries to explore the complexities of gender discourses, we were initially motivated by the questions that have been put forward by critical and feminist literature on education which emphasize the necessarily conflicting and partial nature of both reproduction and resistance and the importance of gendered power relations in the school context. Drawing on this paradigm our research tries to address to a more specific question: how are multiple schoolgirl femininities constructed within the context of gendered school culture, and especially in relation to hegemonic masculinity? Our study reveals that the general framework of multiple femininities is engendered by a tension between two inter-related positions. The first one is different strategies of accommodation and resistance to the gender-related problems of education. The second one is the school experience of girls which is conditioned by their differential position vis-à-vis the masculine resistance culture that is dominant in the school.

Keywords: Femininity, gender relations, masculinity, school, education in Turkey

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7582 Modeling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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7581 Phenomenological and Semi-microscopic Analysis for Elastic Scattering of Protons on 6,7Li

Authors: A. Amar, N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Kerimkulov Zhambul, N. Amangieldy

Abstract:

Analysis of the elastic scattering of protons on 6,7Li nuclei has been done in the framework of the optical model at the beam energies up to 50 MeV. Differential cross sections for the 6,7Li + p scattering were measured over the proton laboratory–energy range from 400 to 1050 keV. The elastic scattering of 6,7Li+p data at different proton incident energies have been analyzed using singlefolding model. In each case the real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Normalization factor NR is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 0.84.

Keywords: scattering of protons on 6, 7Li nuclei, Esis88 Codesingle-folding model, phenomenological.

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7580 Multiple Organ Manifestation in Neonatal Lupus Erythematous (Report of Two Cases)

Authors: Lubis A., Widayanti R., Hikmah Z., Endaryanto A., Harsono A., Harianto A., Etika R., Handayani D. K., Sampurna M.

Abstract:

Neonatal lupus erythematous (NLE) is a rare disease marked by clinical characteristic and specific maternal autoantibody. Many cutaneous, cardiac, liver, and hematological manifestations could happen with affect of one organ or multiple. In this case, both babies were premature, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA) and born through caesarean section from a systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) mother. In the first case, we found a baby girl with dyspnea and grunting. Chest X ray showed respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) great I and echocardiography showed small atrial septal defect (ASD) and ventricular septal defect (VSD). She also developed anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated C-reactive protein, hypoalbuminemia, increasing coagulation factors, hyperbilirubinemia, and positive blood culture of Klebsiella pneumonia. Anti-Ro/SSA and Anti-nRNP/sm were positive. Intravenous fluid, antibiotic, transfusion of blood, thrombocyte concentrate, and fresh frozen plasma were given. The second baby, male presented with necrotic tissue on the left ear and skin rashes, erythematous macula, athropic scarring, hyperpigmentation on all of his body with various size and facial haemorrhage. He also suffered from thrombocytopenia, mild elevated transaminase enzyme, hyperbilirubinemia, anti-Ro/SSA was positive. Intravenous fluid, methyprednisolone, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), blood, and thrombocyte concentrate transfution were given. Two cases of neonatal lupus erythematous had been presented. Diagnosis based on clinical presentation and maternal auto antibody on neonate. Organ involvement in NLE can occur as single or multiple manifestations.

Keywords: Neonatus lupus erythematous, maternal autoantibody, clinical characteristic.

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7579 Problems and Possible Solutions with the Development of a Computer Model of Quantum Theory

Authors: Hans H. Diel

Abstract:

A computer model of Quantum Theory (QT) has been developed by the author. Major goal of the computer model was support and demonstration of an as large as possible scope of QT. This includes simulations for the major QT (Gedanken-) experiments such as, for example, the famous double-slit experiment. Besides the anticipated difficulties with (1) transforming exacting mathematics into a computer program, two further types of problems showed up, namely (2) areas where QT provides a complete mathematical formalism, but when it comes to concrete applications the equations are not solvable at all, or only with extremely high effort; (3) QT rules which are formulated in natural language and which do not seem to be translatable to precise mathematical expressions, nor to a computer program. The paper lists problems in all three categories and describes also the possible solutions or circumventions developed for the computer model.

Keywords: Computability, Foundation of Quantum Mechanics, Measurement Process, Modeling.

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7578 A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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7577 Assessment of Channel Unavailability Effect on the Wireless Networks Teletraffic Modeling and Analysis

Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

Abstract:

Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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7576 Definition and Implementation of a Simulation Model for the Physical Layer and the Radio Channel in Dedicated Short Range Communication Systems

Authors: Mounir Frikha, Michael Meincke, Semia Barouni

Abstract:

This paper proposes a vehicle-to-vehicle propagation model implemented with SDL. To estimate the channel characteristics for Inter-Vehicle communication, we first define a predicted propagation pathloss between the moving vehicles under three typical scenarios. A Ray-tracing method is used for the simple gamma model performance.

Keywords: Inter-vehicle communication (IVC), propagationmodel, road traffic, road vicinity, pathloss.

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7575 An Experimental Study of a Self-Supervised Classifier Ensemble

Authors: Neamat El Gayar

Abstract:

Learning using labeled and unlabelled data has received considerable amount of attention in the machine learning community due its potential in reducing the need for expensive labeled data. In this work we present a new method for combining labeled and unlabeled data based on classifier ensembles. The model we propose assumes each classifier in the ensemble observes the input using different set of features. Classifiers are initially trained using some labeled samples. The trained classifiers learn further through labeling the unknown patterns using a teaching signals that is generated using the decision of the classifier ensemble, i.e. the classifiers self-supervise each other. Experiments on a set of object images are presented. Our experiments investigate different classifier models, different fusing techniques, different training sizes and different input features. Experimental results reveal that the proposed self-supervised ensemble learning approach reduces classification error over the single classifier and the traditional ensemble classifier approachs.

Keywords: Multiple Classifier Systems, classifier ensembles, learning using labeled and unlabelled data, K-nearest neighbor classifier, Bayes classifier.

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