Search results for: economic model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8605

Search results for: economic model

8545 Eco-innovation and Economic Performance in Industrial Clusters: Evidence from Italy

Authors: Sara Tessitore, Tiberio Daddi, Fabio Iraldo

Abstract:

The article aims to investigate the presence of a correlation between eco-innovation and economic performance within industrial districts. The case analyzed in this article is based on a study concerning a sample of 54 Italian industrial clusters entitled "Eco-Districts" that has compiled a list of the most eco-efficient districts at the national level. After selecting two districts, this study assesses the economic performance of the last three years through the analysis of trends in four indicators. The results show that only in some cases there is a connection between eco innovation and economic performance.

Keywords: clusters, industrial districts, eco-innovation, economic performance.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1693
8544 Economic Growth Relations to Domestic and International Air Passenger Transport in Brazil

Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

Abstract:

This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: Air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, granger causality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 964
8543 Modern Kazakhstan in Global World After Independence

Authors: Dmitri Men, Byong-soon Chun, Soon-ok Myong

Abstract:

The article deals with the problems of political and economic processes in Kazakhstan since independence in the context of globalization. It analyzes the geopolitical situation and selfpositioning processes in the world after the end of the "cold war". It examines the problems of internal economization of the Republic for 20 years of independence. The authors argue that the reforms proceeded in the economic sphere have brought ambiguous and tangible results. Despite the difficult economic and political conditions facing a world economical crisis the country has undergone fundamental and radical transformations in the whole socio-economic system

Keywords: Globalization, Kazakhstan, integration, economic processes, financial crisis, multi-vector.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4652
8542 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1577
8541 Impact of Health Sector Economic Reforms in Underdeveloped Countries

Authors: Haga Elimam

Abstract:

This paper investigates the connotation, and some of the realistic implications, of the economic reform of health sector in under developed countries. The paper investigates the issues that economic reforms have to address, and the policy targets they are considered to accomplish. The work argues that the development of economic reform is not connected only with understanding the priorities and refining them, furthermore with reformation and restructuring the organizations through which health policies are employed. Considering various organizational values, that are likely to be regular to all economic reform programs, a regulatory approach to institutional reform is unsuitable. The paper further investigates the selection of economic reform that may as well influence via technical suggestions and analysis, but the verdict to continue, and the consequent success of execution, eventually depends on the progressive political sustainability. The paper concludes by giving examples of institutional reforms from various underdeveloped countries and includes recommendation of the responsibility and control of donor organizations.

Keywords: Economic Reform, Health Sector, underdeveloped Countries.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1661
8540 Modeling ICT Adoption Factors for the Preservation of Indigenous Knowledge

Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2645
8539 An Economic Evaluation of Subjective Well-Being Derived from Sport Participation

Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

This study links up the theories of social psychology, economics and sport management to assess the impact of sport participation on subjective well-being (SWB) and use a simple statistic method to estimate the relative monetary value that sport participation derives SWB for Taiwan-s college students. By constructing proper measurements on sport participation and SWB respectively, a structural equation model (SEM) is developed to perform a confirmatory factory analysis, and the causal relationship between sport participation and SWB as well as the effect of the demographic variables on these two concepts are also discussed.

Keywords: Demographics, Economic value, Sport participation, Structural equation modeling (SEM), Subjective well-being.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1630
8538 Economic Assessment Methodology to Support Decisions for Transport Infrastructure Development

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

Abstract:

The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: Economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1042
8537 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1003
8536 Port Governance Model by International Freight Forwarders’ Point of View: A Study at Port of Santos - Brazil

Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

Abstract:

Due to the importance of ports to trade and economic development of the regions in which they are inserted, in recent decades the number of studies devoted to this subject has increased. Part of these studies considers the ports as business agglomerations and focuses on port governance. This is an important approach since the port performance is the result of activities performed by actors belonging to the port-logistics chain, which need to be properly coordinated. This coordination takes place through a port governance model. Given this context, this study aims to analyze the governance model of the port of Santos from the perspective of port customers. To do this, a closed-ended questionnaire based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance was applied to the international freight forwarders that operate in the port. The results show the applicability of the considered model and highlight improvement opportunities to be implemented at the port of Santos.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Customers’ Perception.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2138
8535 An EOQ Model for Non-Instantaneous Deteriorating Items with Power Demand, Time Dependent Holding Cost, Partial Backlogging and Permissible Delay in Payments

Authors: M. Palanivel, R. Uthayakumar

Abstract:

In this paper, Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) based model for non-instantaneous Weibull distribution deteriorating items with power demand pattern is presented. In this model, the holding cost per unit of the item per unit time is assumed to be an increasing linear function of time spent in storage. Here the retailer is allowed a trade-credit offer by the supplier to buy more items. Also in this model, shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. The backlogging rate is dependent on the waiting time for the next replenishment. This model aids in minimizing the total inventory cost by finding the optimal time interval and finding the optimal order quantity. The optimal solution of the model is illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Finally sensitivity analysis and graphical representations are given to demonstrate the model.

Keywords: Power demand pattern, Partial backlogging, Time dependent holding cost, Trade credit, Weibull deterioration.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3053
8534 A New Fuzzy Mathematical Model in Recycling Collection Networks: A Possibilistic Approach

Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

Abstract:

Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2070
8533 Role of Investment in the Course of Economic Growth in Pakistan

Authors: Maqbool Hussain Sial, Maaida Hussain Hashmi, Sofia Anwar

Abstract:

The present research was focused to investigate the role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth. There was a positive relationship found between economic uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.

Keywords: Investment, Government Consumption, Growth, Co-integration, Pakistan.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2096
8532 Analysis of the Evolution of Social and Economic Indicators of the Mercosur´s Members: 1980-2012

Authors: L. Aparecida Bastos, J. Leige Lopes, J. Crepaldi, R. Monteiro da Silva

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of some social and economic indicators of Mercosur´s economies from 1980 to 2012, based on the statistics of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). The objective is to observe if after the accession of these economies to Mercosur (the first accessions occurred in 1994) these indicators showed better performance, in order to demonstrate if economic integration contributed to improved trade, macroeconomic performance, and level of social and economic development of member countries. To this end, the methodologies used will be a literature review and descriptive statistics. The theoretical framework that guides the work are the theories of Integration: Classical Liberal, Marxist and structural-proactive. The results reveal that most social and economic indicators showed better performance in those economies that joined Mercosur after 1994. This work is the result of an investigation already completed.

Keywords: Economic integration, mercosur, social indicators, economic indicators.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1190
8531 Food Security Model and the Role of Community Empowerment: The Case of a Marginalized Village in Mexico, Tatoxcac, Puebla

Authors: Marco Antonio Lara De la Calleja, María Catalina Ovando Chico, Eduardo Lopez Ruiz

Abstract:

Community empowerment has been proved to be a key element in the solution of the food security problem. As a result of a conceptual analysis, it was found that agricultural production, economic development and governance, are the traditional basis of food security models. Although the literature points to social inclusion as an important factor for food security, no model has considered it as the basis of it. The aim of this research is to identify different dimensions that make an integral model for food security, with emphasis on community empowerment. A diagnosis was made in the study community (Tatoxcac, Zacapoaxtla, Puebla), to know the aspects that impact the level of food insecurity. With a statistical sample integrated by 200 families, the Latin American and Caribbean Food Security Scale (ELCSA) was applied, finding that: in households composed by adults and children, have moderated food insecurity, (ELCSA scale has three levels, low, moderated and high); that result is produced mainly by the economic income capacity and the diversity of the diet on its food. With that being said, a model was developed to promote food security through five dimensions: 1. Regional context of the community; 2. Structure and system of local food; 3. Health and nutrition; 4. Information and technology access; and 5. Self-awareness and empowerment. The specific actions on each axis of the model, allowed a systemic approach needed to attend food security in the community, through the empowerment of society. It is concluded that the self-awareness of local communities is an area of extreme importance, which must be taken into account for participatory schemes to improve food security. In the long term, the model requires the integrated participation of different actors, such as government, companies and universities, to solve something such vital as food security.

Keywords: Community empowerment, food security, model, systemic approach.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1358
8530 Dynamic Shock Bank Liquidity Analysis

Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

Abstract:

Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1894
8529 Economic Dispatch Fuzzy Linear Regression and Optimization

Authors: A. K. Al-Othman

Abstract:

This study presents a new approach based on Tanaka's fuzzy linear regression (FLP) algorithm to solve well-known power system economic load dispatch problem (ELD). Tanaka's fuzzy linear regression (FLP) formulation will be employed to compute the optimal solution of optimization problem after linearization. The unknowns are expressed as fuzzy numbers with a triangular membership function that has middle and spread value reflected on the unknowns. The proposed fuzzy model is formulated as a linear optimization problem, where the objective is to minimize the sum of the spread of the unknowns, subject to double inequality constraints. Linear programming technique is employed to obtain the middle and the symmetric spread for every unknown (power generation level). Simulation results of the proposed approach will be compared with those reported in literature.

Keywords: Economic Dispatch, Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLP)and Optimization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2264
8528 Modeling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2532
8527 Child Care Policy in Kazakhstan: A New Model

Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

Abstract:

Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: Children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3382
8526 Trade Policy and Economic Growth of Turkey in Global Economy: New Empirical Evidences

Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

Abstract:

This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: Globalization, Trade Policy, Economic Growth, Openness, Co-integration, Turkey.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1913
8525 A Shift in the Structure of Economy and Synergy of University: Developing Potential through Research and Development Center of SMEs in Jember

Authors: Muhamad Nugraha

Abstract:

Economic growth always correlate positively with the magnitude of the unemployment rate. This is caused by labor which one of important variable to keep growth in the real sector of the region. Meanwhile, the economic structure in districts of Jember showed an increase of economic activity began to shift towards the industrial sector and some other economic sectors, so they have an affects to considerations for policy makers to increase economic growth in Jember as an autonomous region in East Java Province. At the fact, SMEs is among the factors driving economic growth in the region. This is shown by the high amount of SMEs. However, employment in the sector grew slightly slowed. It is caused by a lack of productivity in SMEs. Through the analysis of the transformation of economic structure theory, and the theory of Triple Helix using descriptive analytical method Location Quotient and Shift - Share, found that the results of the economic structure in Jember slowly shifting from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector, because it is dominated by trade sector, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition, SMEs is the potential sector of economic growth in Jember. While to maximizing role and functions of the institution's Research and Development Center of SMEs, there are three points to be known, that are Business Landscape, Business Architecture and Value Added.

Keywords: Economic Growth, SMEs, Labor, Research and Development Center of SMEs.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1914
8524 Governance and Economic Growth: Evidence of Ten Asian Countries

Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

Abstract:

This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and “Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in “Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve their predictions of the future economic growth.

Keywords: Economic growth, frequency domain, governance, Granger causality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2304
8523 Creation of Economic and Social Value by Social Entrepreneurship for Sustainable Development

Authors: Ahaskar Pandey, Gaurav Mukherjee, Sushil Kumar

Abstract:

The ever growing sentiment of environmentalism across the globe has made many people think on the green lines. But most of such ideas halt short of implementation because of the short term economic viability issues with the concept of going green. In this paper we have tried to amalgamate the green concept with social entrepreneurship for solving a variety of issues faced by the society today. In addition the paper also tries to ensure that the short term economic viability does not act as a deterrent. The paper comes up three sustainable models of social entrepreneurship which tackle a wide assortment of issues such as nutrition problem, land problems, pollution problems and employment problems. The models described fall under the following heads: - Spirulina cultivation: The model addresses nutrition, land and employment issues. It deals with cultivation of a blue green alga called Spirulina which can be used as a very nutritious food. Also, the implementation of this model would bring forth employment to the poor people of the area. - Biocomposites: The model comes up with various avenues in which biocomposites can be used in an economically sustainable manner. This model deals with the environmental concerns and addresses the depletion of natural resources. - Packaging material from empty fruit bunches (EFB) of oil palm: This one deals with air and land pollution. It is intended to be a substitute for packaging materials made from Styrofoam and plastics which are non-biodegradable. It takes care of the biodegradability and land pollution issues. It also reduces air pollution as the empty fruit bunches are not incinerated. All the three models are sustainable and do not deplete the natural resources any further. This paper explains each of the models in detail and deals with the operational/manufacturing procedures and cost analysis while also throwing light on the benefits derived and sustainability aspects.

Keywords: Biodegradable, Pollution, Social entrepreneurship, Sustainability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1794
8522 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 593
8521 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1657
8520 Korea and Japan Economic Relations: An Analysis through the World Trade Organization

Authors: Caroline S. Dutra, Tatiana C. Squeff

Abstract:

It is well known that the history between South Korea and Japan influences their international relations; thus, also encompassing their economic relations. In this sense, it is impossible to analyze the latter without understanding the development of the former, which is known for episodes of hostility, like on Japanese colonization, but also had moments of cultural and trade interexchange. Indeed, since 1965, with the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, their trade relations have improved, especially after both nations have signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Thereafter, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, another chapter of their diplomatic and economic relations have been inaugurated. Hence, bearing in mind this history between both nations, this research intends to examine their relations through the analysis of the WTO panels they have engaged in between each other, which are, in chronological order, “DS323: Japan – Import Quotas on Dried Laver and Seasoned Laver”, “DS336: Japan - Countervailing Duties on Dynamic Random Access Memories from Korea”, “DS495: Korea - Import Band, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides”, “DS553: Korea - Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Stainless Steel Bars” and “DS571: Korea - Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels”. The objective of this case analysis is to point out what are the areas that are more conflictual between Japan and South Korea in regard to their economic relations so that it is possible to assert on their future (economic) relations and other possible outcomes. And in order to do so, bibliographic and documental research will be made, particularly those involving the WTO and the nations under consideration. Regarding the methods used, it is important to highlight that this is applied research in the field of international economic relations and international law, which follows a hypothetic-deductive model.

Keywords: International economic relations, Japan, South Korea, World Trade Organization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 912
8519 A Review of the Theoretical Context of the Role of Innovation in Economic Development

Authors: Maria E. Eggink

Abstract:

It is the aim of this paper to place the role of innovation in economic development in its theoretical context through a literature review. The review compares classical economic theory and the neoclassical theories of “equilibrium in the markets” and “perfectly competitive markets” with the Schumpeterian theory. It was found that Schumpeter’s role in contributing towards economic development theories, and by creating awareness of the role of innovation in these theories is of immeasurable importance. His contribution led to a change in economic thinking, although this was only realized much later than when his theories were first published. The neo-Schumpeterian thinking expanded on the Schumpeterian theory by studying innovation within a system of interaction among different role players. Studies on innovation should be founded in the neo-Schumpeterian school of thought in order to accommodate the complexity of the innovation system concept.

Keywords: Economic development, evolutionary economics, innovation, Schumpeter.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4383
8518 A Survey of Model Comparison Strategies and Techniques in Model Driven Engineering

Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar

Abstract:

This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.

Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2144
8517 A Performance Model for Designing Network in Reverse Logistic

Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: Reverse logistics, Network design, Performance model, Open loop configuration.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2030
8516 An Overview of Georgia’s Economic Growth Since 2012: Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities for Future Development

Authors: V. Benidze

Abstract:

After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: Challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 923