Search results for: ASEAN Economic Community – AEC
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2124

Search results for: ASEAN Economic Community – AEC

1344 The Sustainable Strategies Research for Renewal of “Villages in City”: A Case Study of Liuzhou in Southwestern China

Authors: Kai Zhang

Abstract:

Transformation under the reconfiguration of urban-rural relation in Liuzhou city has never been as radical and visible as it has been since the tremendous turn of the last century in China. Huanjiang village is located in Linhuashan Scenic Area in the middle east of Liuzhou city, with spectacular landscape and traditional features. Nowadays Huanjiang village has become a so-called "village in city", which is considered full of great potential for development because of the economic value of regional advantages during the urban sprawl. Communities of village found it difficult to acclimatize with the dramatic changes, which later led to numerous problems including ecological damage, unemployment of landless farmers and loss of traditional culture. Government has started up a series of renewal planings to resolve the problems, which are based on advanced technology and conform to sustainable and integrated strategies of city planning considering the original context and historical culture, superseding the traditional arrangements based on the guide of extensive economic growth. This paper aims to elaborate the context of Liuzhou city and Huanjiang village offered to both the traditional and sustainable planning approaches, in order to understand challenges and solutions of the rebuilding process. Through the analysis of the place relevant to architecture, society and culture, it will establish the corresponding systematic strategies. Considering the local features, it concludes with a comprehensive perspective on organic renewal in the case of Huanjiang village.

Keywords: China, Liuzhou, sustainable strategy, urban renewal, village in city.

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1343 Wind Power Assessment for Turkey and Evaluation by APLUS Code

Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

Abstract:

Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey.

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1342 Israeli Households Caring for Children and Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: An Explorative Study

Authors: Ayelet Gur

Abstract:

Background: In recent years we are witnessing a welcome trend in which more children/persons with disabilities are living at home with their families and within their communities. This trend is related to various policy innovations as the UN Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities that reflect a shift from the medical-institutional model to a human rights approach. We also witness the emergence of family centered approaches that perceive the family and not just the individual with the disability as a worthy target of policy planning, implementation and evaluation efforts. The current investigation aims to explore economic, psychological and social factors among households of families of children or adults with intellectual disabilities in Israel and to present policy recommendation. Methods: A national sample of 301 households was recruited through the education and employment settings of persons with intellectual disability. The main caregiver of the person with the disability (a parent) was interviewed. Measurements included the income and expense surveys; assets and debts questionnaire; the questionnaire on resources and stress; the social involvement questionnaire and Personal Wellbeing Index. Results: Findings indicate significant gaps in financial circumstances between households of families of children with intellectual disabilities and households of the general Israeli society. Households of families of children with intellectual disabilities report lower income and higher expenditures and loans than the general society. They experience difficulties in saving and coping with unexpected expenses. Caregivers (the parents) experience high stress, low social participation, low financial support from family, friend and non-governmental organizations and decreased well-being. They are highly dependent on social security allowances which constituted 40% of the household's income. Conclusions: Households' dependency on social security allowances may seem contradictory to the encouragement of persons with intellectual disabilities to favor independent living in light of the human rights approach to disability. New policy should aim at reducing caregivers' stress and enhance their social participation and support, with special emphasis on families of lower socio-economic status. Finally, there is a need to continue monitoring the economic and psycho-social needs of households of families of children with intellectual disabilities and other developmental disabilities.

Keywords: Disability policy, family policy, intellectual and developmental disabilities, Israel, households study, parents of children with disabilities.

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1341 A Nodal Transmission Pricing Model based on Newly Developed Expressions of Real and Reactive Power Marginal Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets

Authors: Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

Abstract:

In competitive electricity markets all over the world, an adoption of suitable transmission pricing model is a problem as transmission segment still operates as a monopoly. Transmission pricing is an important tool to promote investment for various transmission services in order to provide economic, secure and reliable electricity to bulk and retail customers. The nodal pricing based on SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) is found extremely useful by researchers for sending correct economic signals. The marginal prices must be determined as a part of solution to optimization problem i.e. to maximize the social welfare. The need to maximize the social welfare subject to number of system operational constraints is a major challenge from computation and societal point of views. The purpose of this paper is to present a nodal transmission pricing model based on SRMC by developing new mathematical expressions of real and reactive power marginal prices using GA-Fuzzy based optimal power flow framework. The impacts of selecting different social welfare functions on power marginal prices are analyzed and verified with results reported in literature. Network revenues for two different power systems are determined using expressions derived for real and reactive power marginal prices in this paper.

Keywords: Deregulation, electricity markets, nodal pricing, social welfare function, short run marginal cost.

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1340 TRS: System for Recommending Semantic Web Service Composition Approaches

Authors: Sandeep Kumar, R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

A large number of semantic web service composition approaches are developed by the research community and one is more efficient than the other one depending on the particular situation of use. So a close look at the requirements of ones particular situation is necessary to find a suitable approach to use. In this paper, we present a Technique Recommendation System (TRS) which using a classification of state-of-art semantic web service composition approaches, can provide the user of the system with the recommendations regarding the use of service composition approach based on some parameters regarding situation of use. TRS has modular architecture and uses the production-rules for knowledge representation.

Keywords: Classification, composition techniques, recommendation system, rule-based, semantic web service.

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1339 Multi-Temporal Mapping of Built-up Areas Using Daytime and Nighttime Satellite Images Based on Google Earth Engine Platform

Authors: S. Hutasavi, D. Chen

Abstract:

The built-up area is a significant proxy to measure regional economic growth and reflects the Gross Provincial Product (GPP). However, an up-to-date and reliable database of built-up areas is not always available, especially in developing countries. The cloud-based geospatial analysis platform such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) provides an opportunity with accessibility and computational power for those countries to generate the built-up data. Therefore, this study aims to extract the built-up areas in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), Thailand using day and nighttime satellite imagery based on GEE facilities. The normalized indices were generated from Landsat 8 surface reflectance dataset, including Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Built-up Index (BUI), and Modified Built-up Index (MBUI). These indices were applied to identify built-up areas in EEC. The result shows that MBUI performs better than BUI and NDBI, with the highest accuracy of 0.85 and Kappa of 0.82. Moreover, the overall accuracy of classification was improved from 79% to 90%, and error of total built-up area was decreased from 29% to 0.7%, after night-time light data from the Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB). The results suggest that MBUI with night-time light imagery is appropriate for built-up area extraction and be utilize for further study of socioeconomic impacts of regional development policy over the EEC region.

Keywords: Built-up area extraction, Google earth engine, adaptive thresholding method, rapid mapping.

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1338 Identifying Business Opportunities Based on Patent and Trademark Portfolios: A Technology-Based Service Industry Case

Authors: Mingook Lee, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

As technology-based service industries grow drastically worldwide; companies are recognizing the importance of market preoccupancy and have made an effort to capture a large market to gain the upper hand. To this end, a focus on patents can be used to determine the properties of a technology, as well as to capture advantages in technical skills, in comparison with the firm’s competitors. However, technology-based services largely depend not only on their technological value but also their economic value, due to the recognized worth that is passed to a plurality of users. Thus, it is important to determine whether there are any competitors in the target areas and what services they provide in any field. Despite this importance, little effort has been made to systematically benchmark competitors in order to identify business opportunities. Thus, this study aims to not only identify each position of technology-centered service companies in complex market dynamics, but also to discover new business opportunities. For this, we try to consider both technology and market environments simultaneously by utilizing patent data as a representative proxy for technology and trademark dates as an index for a firm’s target goods and services. Theoretically, this is one of the earliest attempts to combine patent data and trademark data to analyze corporate strategies. In practice, the research results are expected to be used as a decision criterion to diagnose the economic value that companies can obtain by entering the market, as well as the technological value to be passed onto their customers. Thus, the proposed approach can be useful to support effective technology and business strategies in a firm.

Keywords: Business opportunity, patent, Portfolio analysis, trademark.

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1337 Technological Innovation Persistence Organizational Innovation Matters

Authors: H. Naciba, C. Le Bas, C. Mothe, T.U. Nguyen-Thi

Abstract:

Organizational innovation favors technological innovation, but does it also influence technological innovation persistence? This article investigates empirically the pattern of technological innovation persistence and tests the potential impact of organizational innovation using firm-level data from three waves of the French Community Innovation Surveys. Evidence shows a positive effect of organizational innovation on technological innovation persistence, according to various measures of organizational innovation. Moreover, this impact is more significant for complex innovators (i.e., those who innovate in both products and processes). These results highlight the complexity of managing organizational practices with regard to the firm-s technological innovation. They also add to comprehension of the drivers of innovation persistence, through a focus on an often forgotten dimension of innovation in a broader sense.

Keywords: Organizational Innovation, Technological Innovation, Persistence

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1336 Virtual Reality Design Platform to Easily Create Virtual Reality Experiences

Authors: J. Casteleiro- Pitrez

Abstract:

The interest in Virtual Reality (VR) keeps increasing among the community of designers. To develop this type of immersive experience, the understanding of new processes and methodologies is as fundamental as its complex implementation which usually implies hiring a specialized team. In this paper, we introduce a case study, a platform that allows designers to easily create complex VR experiences, present its features, and its development process. We conclude that this platform provides a complete solution for the design and development of VR experiences, no-code needed.

Keywords: Designers, virtual reality, virtual reality design platform, virtual reality system, no-coding.

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1335 Svision: Visual Identification of Scanning and Denial of Service Attacks

Authors: Iosif-Viorel Onut, Bin Zhu, Ali A. Ghorbani

Abstract:

We propose a novel graphical technique (SVision) for intrusion detection, which pictures the network as a community of hosts independently roaming in a 3D space defined by the set of services that they use. The aim of SVision is to graphically cluster the hosts into normal and abnormal ones, highlighting only the ones that are considered as a threat to the network. Our experimental results using DARPA 1999 and 2000 intrusion detection and evaluation datasets show the proposed technique as a good candidate for the detection of various threats of the network such as vertical and horizontal scanning, Denial of Service (DoS), and Distributed DoS (DDoS) attacks.

Keywords: Anomaly Visualization, Network Security, Intrusion Detection.

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1334 Evaluating Efficiency of Nina Distribution Company Using Window Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist Index

Authors: Hossein Taherian Far, Ali Bazaee

Abstract:

Achieving continuous sustained economic growth and following economic development can be the target for all countries which are looking for it. In this regard, distribution industry plays an important role in growth and development of any nation. So, estimating the efficiency and productivity of the so called industry and identifying factors influencing it, is very necessary. The objective of the present study is to measure the efficiency and productivity of seven branches of Nina Distribution Company using window data envelopment analysis and Malmquist productivity index from spring 2013 to summer 2015. In this study, using criteria of fixed assets, payroll personnel, operating costs and duration of collection of receivables were selected as inputs and people and net sales, gross profit and percentage of coverage to customers were selected as outputs. Then, the process of performance window data envelopment analysis was driven and process efficiency has been measured using Malmquist index. The results indicate that the average technical efficiency of window Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and fluctuating trend is sustainable. But the average management efficiency in window DEA model is related with negative growth (decline) of about 13%. The mean scale efficiency in all windows, except in the second one which is faced with 8%, shows growth of 18% compared to the first window. On the other hand, the mean change in total factor productivity in all branches of the industry shows average negative growth (decrease) of 12% which are the result of a negative change in technology.

Keywords: Nina Distribution Company branches, window data envelopment analysis, Malmquist productivity index.

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1333 Impact Assessment using Path Models of Microentrepreneurs developed by a Business Corporation in India

Authors: M. J. Xavier, J. Raja, S. Usha Nandhini

Abstract:

For scores of years now, several microfinance organizations, non governmental organizations and other welfare organizations have, with a view to aiding the progress of communities rooted in poverty have been focusing on creating microentrepreneurs, besides taking several other measures. In recent times, business corporations have joined forces to combat poverty by taking up microenterprise development. Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL), the Indian subsidiary of Unilever Limited exemplifies this through its Project Shakti. The company through the Project creates rural women entrepreneurs by making them direct to home sales distributors of its products in villages that have thus far been ignored by multinational corporations. The members participating in Project Shakti are largely self help group members. The paper focuses on assessing the impact made by the company on the members engaged in Project Shakti. The analysis involves use of quantitative methods to study the effect of Project Shakti on those self help group members engaged in Project Shakti and those not engaged with Project Shakti. Path analysis has been used to study the impact made on those members engaged in Project Shakti. Significant differences were observed on fronts of entrepreneurial development, economic empowerment and social empowerment between members associated with Project Shakti and those not associated with Project Shakti. Path analysis demonstrated that involvement in Project Shakti led to entrepreneurial development resulting in economic empowerment that in turn led to social empowerment and that these three elements independently induced a feeling of privilege in the women for being associated with the Project.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship development, economicempowerment, impact assessment, microentrepreneurs, pathanalysis, social empowerment.

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1332 Social Media as a ‘Service’ for Value Co-Creation by Integrating Sponsoring Companies, Sports Entities and Fans

Authors: Harri Jalonen

Abstract:

Social media has changed the ways we communicate, collaborate and connect with each other. It has also influenced our habits of consuming sports. Social media has allowed direct interaction between sponsoring companies, athletes/players and fans. Drawing on the service dominant logic of value co-creation, the conceptual paper identifies three operant resources which are beneficial for value co-creation: i) social identity and sense of community, ii) congruence and brand personality, and iii) participatory culture and fan activation. The paper contributes to the theoretical discussion on how social can be media used for value co-creation purposes in the sports industry.

Keywords: Sport, value co-creation, social media, service.

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1331 Promoting Reflection through Action Learning in a 3D Virtual World

Authors: R.L. Sanders, L. McKeown

Abstract:

An international cooperation between educators in Australia and the US has led to a reconceptualization of the teaching of a library science course at Appalachian State University. The pedagogy of Action Learning coupled with a 3D virtual learning environment immerses students in a social constructivist learning space that incorporates and supports interaction and reflection. The intent of this study was to build a bridge between theory and practice by providing students with a tool set that promoted personal and social reflection, and created and scaffolded a community of practice. Besides, action learning is an educational process whereby the fifty graduate students experienced their own actions and experience to improve performance.

Keywords: action learning, action research, reflection, metacognition, virtual worlds

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1330 The Importance of Zakat in Struggle against Circle of Poverty and Income Redistribution

Authors: Hasan Bulent Kantarcı

Abstract:

This paper examines how “Zakat” provides fair income redistribution and aids the struggle against poverty. Providing fair income redistribution and combating poverty constitutes some of the fundamental tasks performed by countries all over the world. Each country seeks a solution for these problems according to their political, economic and administrative styles through applying various economic and financial policies. The same situation can be handled via “zakat” association in Islam. Nowadays, we observe different versions of “zakat” in developed countries. Applications such as negative income tax denote merely a different form of “zakat” that is being applied almost in the same way but under changed names. However, the minimum values to donate under zakat (e.g. 85 gr. gold and 40 animals) get altered and various amounts are put into practice. It might be named as negative income tax instead of zakat, nonetheless, these applications are based on the Holy Koran and the hadith released 1400 years ago. Besides, considering the savage and slavery in the world at those times, we might easily recognize the true value of the zakat being applied for the first time then in the Islamic system. Through zakat, governments are able to transfer incomes to the poor as a means of enabling them achieve the minimum standard of living required. With regards to who benefits from the Zakat, an objective and fair criteria was used to determine who benefits from the zakat contrary to the notion that it was based on peoples’ own choices. Since the zakat is obligatory, the transfers do not get forwarded directly but via the government and get distributed, which requires vast governmental organizations. Through the application of Zakat, reduced levels of poverty can be achieved and also ensure the fair income redistribution.

Keywords: Cycle of poverty, Islamic finance, income redistribution, zakat.

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1329 The Problems of Legal Regulation of Intellectual Property Rights in Innovation Activities in Russia (Institutional Approach)

Authors: Zhanna Mingaleva, Irina Mirskikh

Abstract:

Part IV of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation dedicated to legal regulation of Intellectual property rights came into force in 2008. It is a first attempt of codification in Intellectual property sphere in Russia. That is why a lot of new norms appeared. The main problem of the Russian Civil Code (part IV) is that many rules (norms of Law) contradict the norms of International Intellectual property Law (i.e. protection of inventions, creations, ideas, know-how, trade secrets, innovations). Intellectual property rights protect innovations and creations and reward innovative and creative activity. Intellectual property rights are international in character and in that respect they fit in rather well with the economic reality of the global economy. Inventors prefer not to take out a patent for inventions because it is a very difficult procedure, it takes a lot of time and is very expensive. That-s why they try to protect their inventions as ideas, know-how, confidential information. An idea is the main element of any object of Intellectual property (creation, invention, innovation, know-how, etc.). But ideas are not protected by Civil Code of Russian Federation. The aim of the paper is to reveal the main problems of legal regulation of Intellectual property in Russia and to suggest possible solutions. The authors of this paper have raised these essential issues through different activities. Through the panel survey, questionnaires which were spread among the participants of intellectual activities the main problems of implementation of innovations, protecting of the ideas and know-how were identified. The implementation of research results will help to solve economic and legal problems of innovations, transfer of innovations and intellectual property.1

Keywords: Innovation activities, intellectual property rights, know-how, patents, indicators of innovation activities

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1328 Analysis of Energy Consumption Based on Household Appliances in Jodhpur, India

Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

Abstract:

Energy is the basic element for any country’s economic development. India is one of the most populated countries, and is dependent on fossil fuel and nuclear-based energy generation. The energy sector faces huge challenges and is dependent on the import of energy from neighboring countries to fulfill the gap in demand and supply. India has huge setbacks for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, therefore they consume more quantity of energy to produce the same amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the developed countries. Technology and technique use, availability, and affordability in the various sectors are varying according to their economic status. In this paper, an attempt is made to quantify the domestic electrical energy consumption in Jodhpur, India. Survey research methods have been employed and stratified sampling technique-based households were chosen for conducting the investigation. Pre-tested survey schedules are used to investigate the grassroots level study. The collected data are analyzed by employing statistical techniques. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is developed to understand the functions of total electricity consumption in the domestic sector corresponding to other independent variables including electrical appliances, age of the building, household size, education, etc. The study resulted in identifying the governing variable in energy consumption at the household level and their relationship with the efficiency of household-based electrical and energy appliances. The analysis is concluded with the recommendation for optimizing the gap in peak electrical demand and supply in the domestic sector.

Keywords: Appliance, consumption, electricity, households.

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1327 Construction Unit Rate Factor Modelling Using Neural Networks

Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

Abstract:

Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility and overhead & profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: Construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian Construction Industry.

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1326 The Recession as an Opportunity for Curbing Transport Emissions

Authors: Gabor Szendro, Maria Csete

Abstract:

The effects of the transport sector on the environment are a well-recognized issue in the European Union and around the world. This area is a subject of much discussion as to how these negative effects could be minimized, especially with regards to impacts contributing to climate change. This paper aims to investigate the results of the economic crisis and how its consequences could be exploited to combat air pollution.

Keywords: Air pollution, climate change, recession, transport

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1325 Household Indebtedness Risks in the Czech Republic

Authors: Jindřiška Šedová

Abstract:

In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the development was affected by the transformation which sought to establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic development and the quality of institutional framework in comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the question of whether and to which extent the economic development of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services. It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the EU countries, or selected OECD countries.

Keywords: household indebtedness, household consumption, credits, financial literacy

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1324 Simulation Aided Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Framework for Manufacturing Design and Management

Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

Abstract:

Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

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1323 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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1322 Analyzing Factors Impacting COVID-19 Vaccination Rates

Authors: Dongseok Cho, Mitchell Driedger, Sera Han, Noman Khan, Mohammed Elmorsy, Mohamad El-Hajj

Abstract:

Since the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine in late 2020, vaccination rates have varied around the globe. Access to a vaccine supply, mandated vaccination policy, and vaccine hesitancy contribute to these rates. This study used COVID-19 vaccination data from Our World in Data and the Multilateral Leaders Task Force on COVID-19 to create two COVID-19 vaccination indices. The first index is the Vaccine Utilization Index (VUI), which measures how effectively each country has utilized its vaccine supply to doubly vaccinate its population. The second index is the Vaccination Acceleration Index (VAI), which evaluates how efficiently each country vaccinated their populations within their first 150 days. Pearson correlations were created between these indices and country indicators obtained from the World Bank. Results of these correlations identify countries with stronger Health indicators such as lower mortality rates, lower age-dependency ratios, and higher rates of immunization to other diseases display higher VUI and VAI scores than countries with lesser values. VAI scores are also positively correlated to Governance and Economic indicators, such as regulatory quality, control of corruption, and GDP per capita. As represented by the VUI, proper utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine supply by country is observed in countries that display excellence in health practices. A country’s motivation to accelerate its vaccination rates within the first 150 days of vaccinating, as represented by the VAI, was largely a product of the governing body’s effectiveness and economic status, as well as overall excellence in health practises.

Keywords: Data mining, Pearson Correlation, COVID-19, vaccination rates, hesitancy.

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1321 Regional Economy under the Prism of National Security

Authors: Raziya Ashimova

Abstract:

This article is devoted to the problems of the disproportional development of regions in the Republic Kazakhstan. The threats proceeding from problem regions, make strong impact on the country-s sustainable development, therefore they are necessary to be considered at the level of national security.

Keywords: Economic development, Kazakhstan, National security regional economy.

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1320 Rainfall and Flood Forecast Models for Better Flood Relief Plan of the Mae Sot Municipality

Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

Abstract:

This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: Global rainfall, flood forecasting, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system.

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1319 Inclusive Housing in Australia – A Voluntary Response

Authors: M. Ward, J. Franz, B. Adkins

Abstract:

The lack of inclusive housing in Australia contributes to the marginalization and exclusion of people with disability and older people from family and community life. The Australian government has handed over the responsibility of increasing the supply of inclusive housing to the housing industry through an agreed national access standard and a voluntary strategy. Voluntary strategies have not been successful in other constituencies and little is known about what would work in Australia today. Findings from a research project into the voluntariness of the housing industry indicate that a reliable and consistent supply is unlikely without an equivalent increase in demand. The strategy has, however, an important role to play in the task of changing housing industry practices towards building more inclusive communities.

Keywords: Australia, housing, inclusion, voluntary, industry

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1318 A Theoretical Hypothesis on Ferris Wheel Model of University Social Responsibility

Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, Achievement model, Ferris wheel model.

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1317 Ranking - Convex Risk Minimization

Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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1316 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

Keywords: subgraph, expander, random graph, giant component, percolation.

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1315 Valorization of Industrial Wastes on Hybrid Low Embodied Carbon Cement Based Mortars

Authors: Z. Abdollahnejad, M. Mastali, F. Pacheco-Torgal

Abstract:

Waste reuse is crucial in a context of circular economy and zero waste sustainable needs. Some wastes deserve further studies by the scientific community not only because they are generated in high amount but also because they have a low reuse rate. This paper reports results of 32 hybrid cement mortars based on fly ash and waste glass. They allow to explore the influence of mix design on the cost and on the embodied carbon of the hybrid cement mortars. The embodied carbon data for all constituents were taken from the database Ecoinvent. This study led to the development of a mixture with just 70 kg CO2e.

Keywords: Waste reuse, fly ash, waste glass, hybrid cements, cost, embodied carbon.

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