Search results for: uplink throughput prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1287

Search results for: uplink throughput prediction.

537 Development of Prediction Tool for Sound Absorption and Sound Insulation for Sound Proof Properties

Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa, Takao Yamaguchi

Abstract:

High frequency automotive interior noise above 500 Hz considerably affects automotive passenger comfort. To reduce this noise, sound insulation material is often laminated on body panels or interior trim panels. For a more effective noise reduction, the sound reduction properties of this laminated structure need to be estimated. We have developed a new calculate tool that can roughly calculate the sound absorption and insulation properties of laminate structure and handy for designers. In this report, the outline of this tool and an analysis example applied to floor mat are introduced.

Keywords: Automobile, acoustics, porous material, Transfer Matrix Method.

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536 Effective Sonar Target Classification via Parallel Structure of Minimal Resource Allocation Network

Authors: W.S. Lim, M.V.C. Rao

Abstract:

In this paper, the processing of sonar signals has been carried out using Minimal Resource Allocation Network (MRAN) and a Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) in differentiation of commonly encountered features in indoor environments. The stability-plasticity behaviors of both networks have been investigated. The experimental result shows that MRAN possesses lower network complexity but experiences higher plasticity than PNN. An enhanced version called parallel MRAN (pMRAN) is proposed to solve this problem and is proven to be stable in prediction and also outperformed the original MRAN.

Keywords: Ultrasonic sensing, target classification, minimalresource allocation network (MRAN), probabilistic neural network(PNN), stability-plasticity dilemma.

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535 Application of Neural Network on the Loading of Copper onto Clinoptilolite

Authors: John Kabuba

Abstract:

The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ionexchange.

Keywords: Clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, Neural network.

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534 Degradation Model of Optical Characteristics of Zno-Pigmented White Paint by Electron Radiation

Authors: Tian Hai, Yang Shengsheng, Jr., Wang Yi

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of the mechanism of degradation of optical characteristics of the ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron irradiation, a model of single molecular color centers is built. An equation that explains the relationship between the changes of variation of the ZnO-pigmented white paint-s spectrum absorptance and electron fluence is derived. The uncertain parameters in the equation can be calculated using the curve fitting by experimental data. The result indicates that the model can be applied to predict the degradation of optical characteristics of ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron radiation.

Keywords: ZnO-pigmented white pain, effects of electron radiation, optical characteristics degradation, prediction model.

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533 Fuzzy Inference Based Modelling of Perception Reaction Time of Drivers

Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

Abstract:

Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: Driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable.

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532 Cooperative Cross Layer Topology for Concurrent Transmission Scheduling Scheme in Broadband Wireless Networks

Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Ramkumar Jayaraman

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider CCL-N (Cooperative Cross Layer Network) topology based on the cross layer (both centralized and distributed) environment to form network communities. Various performance metrics related to the IEEE 802.16 networks are discussed to design CCL-N Topology. In CCL-N topology, nodes are classified as master nodes (Master Base Station [MBS]) and serving nodes (Relay Station [RS]). Nodes communities are organized based on the networking terminologies. Based on CCL-N Topology, various simulation analyses for both transparent and non-transparent relays are tabulated and throughput efficiency is calculated. Weighted load balancing problem plays a challenging role in IEEE 802.16 network. CoTS (Concurrent Transmission Scheduling) Scheme is formulated in terms of three aspects – transmission mechanism based on identical communities, different communities and identical node communities. CoTS scheme helps in identifying the weighted load balancing problem. Based on the analytical results, modularity value is inversely proportional to that of the error value. The modularity value plays a key role in solving the CoTS problem based on hop count. The transmission mechanism for identical node community has no impact since modularity value is same for all the network groups. In this paper three aspects of communities based on the modularity value which helps in solving the problem of weighted load balancing and CoTS are discussed.

Keywords: Cross layer network topology, concurrent scheduling, modularity value, network communities and weighted load balancing.

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531 Geographic Profiling Based on Multi-point Centrography with K-means Clustering

Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

Abstract:

Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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530 A Study on Metal Hexagonal Honeycomb Crushing Under Quasi-Static Loading

Authors: M. Zarei Mahmoudabadi, M. Sadighi

Abstract:

In the study of honeycomb crushing under quasistatic loading, two parameters are important, the mean crushing stress and the wavelength of the folding mode. The previous theoretical models did not consider the true cylindrical curvature effects and the flow stress in the folding mode of honeycomb material. The present paper introduces a modification on Wierzbicki-s model based on considering two above mentioned parameters in estimating the mean crushing stress and the wavelength through implementation of the energy method. Comparison of the results obtained by the new model and Wierzbicki-s model with existing experimental data shows better prediction by the model presented in this paper.

Keywords: Crush strength, Flow stress, Honeycomb, Quasistatic load.

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529 Numerical Investigation of Flow Past Cylinderin Cross Flow

Authors: M. H. Alhajeri, Jasem Alrajhi, Mohsen Alardhi, Saleh Alhajeri

Abstract:

A numerical prediction of flow in a tube bank is reported. The flow regimes considered cover a wide range of Reynolds numbers, which range from 380 to 99000 and which are equivalent to a range of inlet velocities from very low (0.072 m/s) to very high (60 m/s). In this study, calculations were made using the standard k-e model with standard wall function. The drag coefficient, skin friction drag, pressure drag, and pressure distribution around a tube were investigated. As the velocity increased, the drag coefficient decreased until the velocity exceeded 45 m/s, after which it increased. Furthermore, the pressure drag and skin friction drag depend on the velocity.

Keywords: Numerical, Fluid, Flow, Turbine, Cooling, Blade.

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528 The State-of-Art Environmental Impact Assessment: An Overview

Authors: Tsolmon Tumenjargal, Muhammad Hassan Khalil, Wu Yao Guo

Abstract:

The research on the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) is a milestone effort to evaluate the state of the field, including many contributors related with a lot of countries since more than two decades. In the 1960s, there was a surge of interest between modern industrialized countries over unexpected opposite effects of technical invention. The interest led to choice of approaches for assessing and prediction the impressions of technology and advancement for social and economic, state health and safety, solidity and the circumstances. These are consisting of risk assessment, technology assessment, environmental impact assessment and costbenefit analysis. In this research contribution, the authors have described the research status for environmental assessment in cumulative environmental system. This article discusses the methods for cumulative effect assessment (CEA).

Keywords: Cumulative effect assessment, Environmental impact assessment.

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527 Combined Fuzzy and Predictive Controller for Unity Power Factor Converter

Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

Abstract:

This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: Boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, prediction, unity power factor.

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526 Performance Analysis of Search Medical Imaging Service on Cloud Storage Using Decision Trees

Authors: González A. Julio, Ramírez L. Leonardo, Puerta A. Gabriel

Abstract:

Telemedicine services use a large amount of data, most of which are diagnostic images in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and Health Level Seven (HL7) formats. Metadata is generated from each related image to support their identification. This study presents the use of decision trees for the optimization of information search processes for diagnostic images, hosted on the cloud server. To analyze the performance in the server, the following quality of service (QoS) metrics are evaluated: delay, bandwidth, jitter, latency and throughput in five test scenarios for a total of 26 experiments during the loading and downloading of DICOM images, hosted by the telemedicine group server of the Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, Bogotá, Colombia. By applying decision trees as a data mining technique and comparing it with the sequential search, it was possible to evaluate the search times of diagnostic images in the server. The results show that by using the metadata in decision trees, the search times are substantially improved, the computational resources are optimized and the request management of the telemedicine image service is improved. Based on the experiments carried out, search efficiency increased by 45% in relation to the sequential search, given that, when downloading a diagnostic image, false positives are avoided in management and acquisition processes of said information. It is concluded that, for the diagnostic images services in telemedicine, the technique of decision trees guarantees the accessibility and robustness in the acquisition and manipulation of medical images, in improvement of the diagnoses and medical procedures in patients.

Keywords: Cloud storage, decision trees, diagnostic image, search, telemedicine.

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525 Predictions of Values in a Causticizing Process

Authors: R. Andreola, O. A. A. Santos, L. M. M, Jorge

Abstract:

An industrial system for the production of white liquor of a paper industry, Klabin Paraná Papéis, formed by ten reactors was modeled, simulated, and analyzed. The developed model considered possible water losses by evaporation and reaction, in addition to variations in volumetric flow of lime mud across the reactors due to composition variations. The model predictions agreed well with the process measurements at the plant and the results showed that the slaking reaction is nearly complete at the third causticizing reactor, while causticizing ends by the seventh reactor. Water loss due to slaking reaction and evaporation occurs more pronouncedly in the slaking reaction than in the final causticizing reactors; nevertheless, the lime mud flow remains nearly constant across the reactors.

Keywords: Causticizing, lime, prediction, process.

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524 Comparison of the Distillation Curve Obtained Experimentally with the Curve Extrapolated by a Commercial Simulator

Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

Abstract:

True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: Distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve.

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523 Two Day Ahead Short Term Load Forecasting Neural Network Based

Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

Abstract:

This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.

The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Back propagation learning.

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522 Chikungunya Protease Domain–High Throughput Virtual Screening

Authors: Surender Singh Jadav, Venkatesan Jayaprakash, Arijit Basu, Barij Nayan Sinha

Abstract:

Chikungunya virus (CHICKV) is an arboviruses belonging to family Tagoviridae and is transmitted to human through by mosquito (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) bite. A large outbreak of chikungunya has been reported in India between 2006 and 2007, along with several other countries from South-East Asia and for the first time in Europe. It was for the first time that the CHICKV outbreak has been reported with mortality from Reunion Island and increased mortality from Asian countries. CHICKV affects all age groups, and currently there are no specific drugs or vaccine to cure the disease. The need of antiviral agents for the treatment of CHICKV infection and the success of virtual screening against many therapeutically valuable targets led us to carry out the structure based drug design against Chikungunya nSP2 protease (PDB: 3TRK). Highthroughput virtual screening of publicly available databases, ZINC12 and BindingDB, has been carried out using the Openeye tools and Schrodinger LLC software packages. Openeye Filter program has been used to filter the database and the filtered outputs were docked using HTVS protocol implemented in GLIDE package of Schrodinger LLC. The top HITS were further used for enriching the similar molecules from the database through vROCS; a shape based screening protocol implemented in Openeye. The approach adopted has provided different scaffolds as HITS against CHICKV protease. Three scaffolds: Indole, Pyrazole and Sulphone derivatives were selected based on the docking score and synthetic feasibility. Derivatives of Pyrazole were synthesized and submitted for antiviral screening against CHICKV.

Keywords: Chikungunya, nsP2 protease, ADME filter, HTVS, Docking, Active site.

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521 Slip Limit Prediction of High-Strength Bolt Joints Based on Local Approach

Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

Abstract:

In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: Bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution.

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520 Process Modeling of Electric Discharge Machining of Inconel 825 Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

Abstract:

Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness.

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519 Predicting the Success of Bank Telemarketing Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Mokrane Selma

Abstract:

The shift towards decision making (DM) based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques will change the way in which consumer markets and our societies function. Through AI, predictive analytics is being used by businesses to identify these patterns and major trends with the objective to improve the DM and influence future business outcomes. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. To validate the proposed model, we uses the bank marketing data of 41188 phone calls. The ANN attains 98.93% of accuracy which outperforms other conventional classifiers and confirms that it is credible and valuable approach for telemarketing campaign managers.

Keywords: Bank telemarketing, prediction, decision making, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network.

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518 Protein-Protein Interaction Detection Based on Substring Sensitivity Measure

Authors: Nazar Zaki, Safaai Deris, Hany Alashwal

Abstract:

Detecting protein-protein interactions is a central problem in computational biology and aberrant such interactions may have implicated in a number of neurological disorders. As a result, the prediction of protein-protein interactions has recently received considerable attention from biologist around the globe. Computational tools that are capable of effectively identifying protein-protein interactions are much needed. In this paper, we propose a method to detect protein-protein interaction based on substring similarity measure. Two protein sequences may interact by the mean of the similarities of the substrings they contain. When applied on the currently available protein-protein interaction data for the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the proposed method delivered reasonable improvement over the existing ones.

Keywords: Protein-Protein Interaction, support vector machine, feature extraction, pairwise alignment, Smith-Waterman score.

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517 Multipath Routing Protocol Using Basic Reconstruction Routing (BRR) Algorithm in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: K. Rajasekaran, Kannan Balasubramanian

Abstract:

A sensory network consists of multiple detection locations called sensor nodes, each of which is tiny, featherweight and portable. A single path routing protocols in wireless sensor network can lead to holes in the network, since only the nodes present in the single path is used for the data transmission. Apart from the advantages like reduced computation, complexity and resource utilization, there are some drawbacks like throughput, increased traffic load and delay in data delivery. Therefore, multipath routing protocols are preferred for WSN. Distributing the traffic among multiple paths increases the network lifetime. We propose a scheme, for the data to be transmitted through a dominant path to save energy. In order to obtain a high delivery ratio, a basic route reconstruction protocol is utilized to reconstruct the path whenever a failure is detected. A basic reconstruction routing (BRR) algorithm is proposed, in which a node can leap over path failure by using the already existing routing information from its neighbourhood while the composed data is transmitted from the source to the sink. In order to save the energy and attain high data delivery ratio, data is transmitted along a multiple path, which is achieved by BRR algorithm whenever a failure is detected. Further, the analysis of how the proposed protocol overcomes the drawback of the existing protocols is presented. The performance of our protocol is compared to AOMDV and energy efficient node-disjoint multipath routing protocol (EENDMRP). The system is implemented using NS-2.34. The simulation results show that the proposed protocol has high delivery ratio with low energy consumption.

Keywords: Multipath routing, WSN, energy efficient routing, alternate route, assured data delivery.

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516 Inexact Alternating Direction Method for Variational Inequality Problems with Linear Equality Constraints

Authors: Min Sun, Jing Liu

Abstract:

In this article, a new inexact alternating direction method(ADM) is proposed for solving a class of variational inequality problems. At each iteration, the new method firstly solves the resulting subproblems of ADM approximately to generate an temporal point ˜xk, and then the multiplier yk is updated to get the new iterate yk+1. In order to get xk+1, we adopt a new descent direction which is simple compared with the existing prediction-correction type ADMs. For the inexact ADM, the resulting proximal subproblem has closedform solution when the proximal parameter and inexact term are chosen appropriately. We show the efficiency of the inexact ADM numerically by some preliminary numerical experiments.

Keywords: variational inequality problems, alternating direction method, global convergence

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515 An Investigative Study into Observer based Non-Invasive Fault Detection and Diagnosis in Induction Motors

Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

Abstract:

A new observer based fault detection and diagnosis scheme for predicting induction motors- faults is proposed in this paper. Prediction of incipient faults, using different variants of Kalman filter and their relative performance are evaluated. Only soft faults are considered for this work. The data generation, filter convergence issues, hypothesis testing and residue estimates are addressed. Simulink model is used for data generation and various types of faults are considered. A comparative assessment of the estimates of different observers associated with these faults is included.

Keywords: Extended Kalman Filter, Fault detection and diagnosis, Induction motor model, Unscented Kalman Filter

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514 A New Predictor of Coding Regions in Genomic Sequences using a Combination of Different Approaches

Authors: Aníbal Rodríguez Fuentes, Juan V. Lorenzo Ginori, Ricardo Grau Ábalo

Abstract:

Identifying protein coding regions in DNA sequences is a basic step in the location of genes. Several approaches based on signal processing tools have been applied to solve this problem, trying to achieve more accurate predictions. This paper presents a new predictor that improves the efficacy of three techniques that use the Fourier Transform to predict coding regions, and that could be computed using an algorithm that reduces the computation load. Some ideas about the combination of the predictor with other methods are discussed. ROC curves are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed predictor, based on the computation of 25 DNA sequences from three different organisms.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Coding region prediction, Computational load reduction, Digital Signal Processing, Fourier Transform.

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513 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.

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512 Prediction of the Rear Fuselage Temperature with Radiation Shield

Authors: Kyung Joo Yi, Seung Wook Baek, Sung Nam Lee, Man Young Kim, Won Cheol Kim, Gun Yung Go

Abstract:

In order to enhance the aircraft survivability, the infrared signatures emitted by hot engine parts should be determined exactly. For its reduction it is necessary for the rear fuselage temperature to be decreased. In this study, numerical modeling of flow fields and heat transfer characteristics of an aircraft nozzle is performed and its temperature distribution along each component wall is predicted. The radiation shield is expected to reduce the skin temperature of rear fuselage. The effect of material characteristic of radiation shield on the heat transfer is also investigated. Through this numerical analysis, design parameters related to the susceptibility of aircraft are examined.

Keywords: Infrared signature, Nozzle flow, Radiation shield, Rear fuselage temperature, Susceptibility

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511 Modeling and Investigation of Elongation in Free Explosive Forming of Aluminum Alloy Plate

Authors: R. Alipour, F.Najarian

Abstract:

Because of high ductility, aluminum alloys, have been widely used as an important base of metal forming industries. But the main week point of these alloys is their low strength so in forming them with conventional methods like deep drawing, hydro forming, etc have been always faced with problems like fracture during of forming process. Because of this, recently using of explosive forming method for forming of these plates has been recommended. In this paper free explosive forming of A2024 aluminum alloy is numerically simulated and during it, explosion wave propagation process is studied. Consequences of this simulation can be effective in prediction of quality of production. These consequences are compared with an experimental test and show the superiority of this method to similar methods like hydro forming and deep drawing.

Keywords: Free explosive forming, CEL, Johnson cook.

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510 Increase Success by Decreasing Admission for Maths– Fairytale or Reality?

Authors: L.A du Plessis

Abstract:

South Africa is facing a crisis with not being able to produce enough graduates in the scarce skills areas to sustain economic growth. The crisis is fuelled by a school system that does not produce enough potential students with Mathematics, Accounting and Science. Since the introduction of the new school curriculum in 2008, there is no longer an option to take pure maths on a standard grade level. Instead, only two mathematical subjects are offered: pure maths (which is on par with higher grade maths) and mathematical literacy. It is compulsory to take one or the other. As a result, lees student finishes Grade 12 with pure mathematics every year. This national problem needs urgent attention if South Africa is to make any headway in critical skills development as mathematics is a gateway to scarce skills professions. Higher education institutions initiated several initiatives in an attempt to address the above, including preparatory courses, bridging programmes and extended curricula with foundation provisions. In view of the above, and government policy directives to broaden access in the scarce skills areas to increase student throughput, foundation provision was introduced for Commerce and Information Technology programmes at the Vaal Triangle Campus (VTC) of North-West University (NWU) in 2010. Students enrolling for extended programmes do not comply with the minimum prerequisites for the normal programmes. The question then arises as to whether these programmes have the intended impact? This paper reports the results of a two year longitudinal study, tracking the first year academic achievement of the two cohorts of enrolments since 2010. The results provide valuable insight into the structuring of an extended programme and its potential impact.

Keywords: Access, extended programmes, foundation provision, mathematics.

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509 Using Fractional Factorial Designs for Variable Importance in Random Forest Models

Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

Abstract:

Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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508 Dynamics of Nutrients Pool in the Baltic Sea Using the Ecosystem Model 3D-CEMBS

Authors: L. Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, M. Janecki

Abstract:

Seasonal variability of nutrients concentration in the Baltic Sea using the 3D ecosystem numerical model 3D-CEMBS has been investigated. Additionally this study shows horizontal and vertical distribution of nutrients in the Baltic Sea. Model domain is an extended Baltic Sea area divided into 600x640 horizontal grid cells. Aside from standard hydrodynamic parameters 3D-CEMBS produces modeled ecological variables such as: three types of phytoplankton, two detrital classes, dissolved oxygen and the nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate). The presented model allows prediction of parameters that describe distribution of nutrients concentration and phytoplankton biomass. 3D-CEMBS can be used to study the effect of different hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes on distributions of these variables in a larger scale.

Keywords: ecosystem model, nutrients, Baltic Sea

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