Search results for: Population modeling.

Authors: Arun Goel

Abstract:

Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly & Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly & Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicate the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly & Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: Modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly & Rbf kernels).

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Authors: Aurélie Mabrouk, Vincent Lagneau, Caroline De Dieuleveult, Martin Bachet, Hélène Schneider, Christophe Coquelet

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Resins are used in nuclear power plants for water ultrapurification. Two approaches are considered in this work: column experiments and simulations. A software called OPTIPUR was developed, tested and used. The approach simulates the onedimensional reactive transport in porous medium with convectivedispersive transport between particles and diffusive transport within the boundary layer around the particles. The transfer limitation in the boundary layer is characterized by the mass transfer coefficient (MTC). The influences on MTC were measured experimentally. The variation of the inlet concentration does not influence the MTC; on the contrary of the Darcy velocity which influences. This is consistent with results obtained using the correlation of Dwivedi&Upadhyay. With the MTC, knowing the number of exchange site and the relative affinity, OPTIPUR can simulate the column outlet concentration versus time. Then, the duration of use of resins can be predicted in conditions of a binary exchange.

Keywords: ion exchange resin, mass transfer coefficient, modeling, OPTIPUR

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study examined the mental health and behavioral problems in early adolescence with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose of the study was stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. Multiple regression models and hierarchical regression models were applied to examine the relations between the background variables and internalizing problems, and the ones between students’ performance and internalizing problems. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem; reading and social study scores could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem. However the class as a hierarchical macro factor did not indicate the significant effect. In brief, the majority of these models represented that the background variables, behaviors and academic performance were significantly related to the anxious/depressed problem.

Keywords: Behavioral problems, anxious/depression problems, empirical-based assessment, hierarchical modeling.

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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Authors: Jürgen Geiser, Robert Röhle

Abstract:

In this paper we present modeling and simulation for physical vapor deposition for metallic bipolar plates. In the models we discuss the application of different models to simulate the transport of chemical reactions of the gas species in the gas chamber. The so called sputter process is an extremely sensitive process to deposit thin layers to metallic plates. We have taken into account lower order models to obtain first results with respect to the gas fluxes and the kinetics in the chamber. The model equations can be treated analytically in some circumstances and complicated multi-dimensional models are solved numerically with a software-package (UG unstructed grids, see [1]). Because of multi-scaling and multi-physical behavior of the models, we discuss adapted schemes to solve more accurate in the different domains and scales. The results are discussed with physical experiments to give a valid model for the assumed growth of thin layers.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion equations, multi-scale problem, physical vapor deposition, reaction equations, splitting methods.

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Authors: Walsh Joe, Climstein Mike, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

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Whilst there is growing evidence that activity across the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are also many changes involved with the aging process and subsequently the potential for reduced indices of health. The nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted approached is necessary in order to counteract a growing obesity epidemic. By investigating age based trends within a population adhering to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing this relationship. BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071 masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91 years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample. This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing age for both the sample as a whole and these individual subgroups. This evidence of improved classification in one index of health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to the general population) implies there are either improved levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to masters sport at older ages. Demonstration of this proportionately under-investigated World Masters Games population having an improved relationship between BMI and increasing age over the general population is of particular interest in the context of the measures being taken globally to curb an obesity epidemic.

Keywords: Aging, masters athlete, Quetelet Index, sport.

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Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

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There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states, and, if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) there is a confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the most influential predictive factors are identified, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) Florida is identified as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, ASD, clustering, Machine Learning, predictive modeling.

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Authors: Costa, E.S., Borges, E.N.M., Afonso, M.M.

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The modeling of sound radiation is of fundamental importance for understanding the propagation of acoustic waves and, consequently, develop mechanisms for reducing acoustic noise. The propagation of acoustic waves, are involved in various phenomena such as radiation, absorption, transmission and reflection. The radiation is studied through the linear equation of the acoustic wave that is obtained through the equation for the Conservation of Momentum, equation of State and Continuity. From these equations, is the Helmholtz differential equation that describes the problem of acoustic radiation. In this paper we obtained the solution of the Helmholtz differential equation for an infinite cylinder in a pulsating through free and homogeneous. The analytical solution is implemented and the results are compared with the literature. A numerical formulation for this problem is obtained using the Boundary Element Method (BEM). This method has great power for solving certain acoustical problems in open field, compared to differential methods. BEM reduces the size of the problem, thereby simplifying the input data to be worked and reducing the computational time used.

Keywords: Acoustic radiation, boundary element

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Authors: Jouhra Dad, Mohammed Ouali, Yahia Lebbah

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Urban road network traffic has become one of the most studied research topics in the last decades. This is mainly due to the enlargement of the cities and the growing number of motor vehicles traveling in this road network. One of the most sensitive problems is to verify if the network is congestion-free. Another related problem is the automatic reconfiguration of the network without building new roads to alleviate congestions. These problems require an accurate model of the traffic to determine the steady state of the system. An alternative is to simulate the traffic to see if there are congestions and when and where they occur. One key issue is to find an adequate model for road intersections. Once the model established, either a large scale model is built or the intersection is represented by its performance measures and simulation for analysis. In both cases, it is important to seek the queueing model to represent the road intersection. In this paper, we propose to model the road intersection as a BCMP queueing network and we compare this analytical model against a simulation model for validation.

Keywords: Queueing theory, transportation systems, BCMPqueueing network, performance measures, modeling, simulation

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Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc

Abstract:

In the present study, an attempt was made to state the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transformation over three decades around the urban regions of Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale provincial centers (PCs) in Turkey. Landsat imageries acquired in 1984, 1999 and 2014 were used to determine the LULC change. Images were classified using the supervised classification technique and five main LULC classes were considered including forest (F), agricultural land (A), residential area (urban) - bare soil (R-B), water surface (W), and other (O). Change detection analyses were conducted for 1984-1999 and 1999-2014, and the results were evaluated. Conversions of LULC types to R-B class were investigated. In addition, population changes (1985-2014) were assessed depending on census data, the relations between population and the urban areas were stated, and future populations and urban area needs were forecasted for 2030. The results of LULC analysis indicated that urban areas, which are covered under R-B class, were expanded in all PCs. During 1984-1999 R-B class within Balıkesir, Bursa and Çanakkale PCs were found to have increased by 7.1%, 8.4%, and 2.9%, respectively. The trend continued in the 1999-2014 term and the increment percentages reached to 15.7%, 15.5%, and 10.2% at the end of 30-year period (1984-2014). Furthermore, since A class in all provinces was found to be the principal contributor for the R-B class, urban sprawl lead to the loss of agricultural lands. Moreover, the areas of R-B classes were highly correlated with population within all PCs (R²>0.992). Depending on this situation, both future populations and R-B class areas were forecasted. The estimated values of increase in the R-B class areas for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale PCs were 1,586 ha, 7,999 ha and 854 ha, respectively. Due to this fact, the forecasted values for 2,030 are 7,838 ha, 27,866, and 2,486 ha for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale, and thus, 7.7%, 8.2%, and 9.7% more R-B class areas are expected to locate in PCs in respect to the same order.

Keywords: Landsat, LULC change, population, urban sprawl.

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Authors: Ching-hui Lin, Yen-Chieh Wen

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The main purpose of this study is to analyze the feelings of tourists for the service quality of the bikeway. In addition, this study also analyzed the causal relationship between service quality and satisfaction to visitor-s lane loyalty. In this study, the Ya Tam San bikeway visitor-s subjects, using the designated convenience sampling carried out the survey, a total of 651 questionnaires were validly. Valid questionnaires after statistical analysis, the following findings: 1. Visitor-s lane highest quality of service project: the routes through the region weather pleasant. Lane "with health and sports," the highest satisfaction various factors of service quality and satisfaction, loyal between correlations exist. 4. Guided tours of bikeways, the quality of the environment, and modeling imagery can effectively predict visitor satisfaction. 5. Quality of bikeway, public facilities, guided tours, and modeling imagery can effectively predict visitor loyalty. According to the above results, the study not only makes recommendations to the government units and the bicycle industry, also asked the research direction for future researchers.

Keywords: Service quality, satisfaction, loyal, bikeway.

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Authors: Loay A. Al-Zu'be, Asma A. Al-Tamimi, Thakir D. Al-Momani, Ayat J. Alkarala, Maryam A. Alzawahreh

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A two dimensional three segments coupled pendulum system that mathematically models human arm configuration was developed along with constructing and solving the equations of motions for this model using the energy (work) based approach of Lagrange. The equations of motion of the model were solved iteratively both as an initial value problem and as a two point boundary value problem. In the initial value problem solutions, both the initial system configuration (segment angles) and initial system velocity (segment angular velocities) were used as inputs, whereas, in the two point boundary value problem solutions initial and final configurations and time were used as inputs to solve for the trajectory of motion. The results suggest that the model solutions are sensitive to small changes in the dynamic forces applied to the system as well as to the initial and boundary conditions used. To overcome the system sensitivity a new approach is suggested.

Keywords: Body Configurations, Equations of Motion, Mathematical Modeling, Movement Trajectories.

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Authors: Gangmin Li, Fan Yang

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Personalized recommendation is crucial for any recommendation system. One of the techniques for personalized recommendation is to identify the intention. Traditional user intention identification uses the user’s selection when facing multiple items. This modeling relies primarily on historical behavior data resulting in challenges such as the cold start, unintended choice, and failure to capture intention when items are new. Motivated by recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, we present an approach for user intention identification by embracing LLMs with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. We use the initial user profile as input to LLMs and design a collection of prompts to align the LLM's response through various recommendation tasks encompassing rating prediction, search and browse history, user clarification, etc. Our tests on real-world datasets demonstrate the improvements in recommendation by explicit user intention identification and, with that intention, merged into a user model.

Keywords: Personalized recommendation, generative user modeling, user intention identification, large language models, chain-of-thought prompting.

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Authors: Le Ngoc Hung, Abriak Nor Edine, Binetruy Christophe, Benzerzour Mahfoud, Shahrour Isam, Patrice Rivard

Abstract:

Bottom ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration (MSWI) can be viewed as a typical granular material because these industrial by-products result from the incineration of various domestic wastes. MSWI bottom ash is mainly used in road engineering in substitution of the traditional natural aggregates. As the characterization of their mechanical behavior is essential in order to use them, specific studies have been led over the past few years. In the first part of this paper, the mechanical behavior of MSWI bottom ash is studied with triaxial tests. After, analysis of the experiment results, the simulation of triaxial tests is carried out by using the software package CESAR-LCPC. As the first approach in modeling of this new class material, the Mohr-Coulomb model was chosen to describe the evolution of material under the influence of external mechanical actions.

Keywords: Bottom ash, granular material, triaxial test, mechanical behavior, simulation, Mohr-Coulomb model, CESARLCPC.

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Authors: Elhameh Narimani, Mikhail Sorin, Philippe Micheau, Hakim Nesreddine

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Numerical models of the heat exchangers in ejector refrigeration system (ERS) were developed and validated with the experimental data. The models were based on the switched heat exchangers model using the moving boundary method, which were capable of estimating the zones’ lengths, the outlet temperatures of both sides and the heat loads at various experimental points. The developed models were utilized to investigate the influence of the primary flow pressure on the performance of an R245fa ERS based on its coefficient of performance (COP) and exergy efficiency. It was illustrated numerically and proved experimentally that increasing the primary flow pressure slightly reduces the COP while the exergy efficiency goes through a maximum before decreasing.

Keywords: Coefficient of performance, ejector refrigeration system, exergy efficiency, heat exchangers modeling, moving boundary method.

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Authors: Mehrdad Azimzadeh, Seyed Mohammadreza Jabbari, Mohammadreza Hosseinzadeh Alherd

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This paper includes experimental results and analytical studies about increasing resistance of single-span reinforced concreted frames against impact factor and their modeling according to optimization methods and optimizing the behavior of these frames under impact loads. During this study, about 30 designs for different frames were modeled and made using specialized software like ANSYS and Sap and their behavior were examined under variable impacts. Then suitable strategies were offered for frames in terms of concrete mixing in order to optimize frame modeling. To reduce the weight of the frames, we had to use fine-grained stones. After designing about eight types of frames for each type of frames, three samples were designed with the aim of controlling the impact strength parameters, and a good shape of the frame was created for the impact resistance, which was a solid frame with muscular legs, and as a bond away from each other as much as possible with a 3 degree gradient in the upper part of the beam.

Keywords: Optimization, reinforced concrete, single-span frames, optimization methods of impact load.

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Authors: A. Saghaei, R. Ghasemi

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Through 1980s, management accounting researchers described the increasing irrelevance of traditional control and performance measurement systems. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a critical business tool for a lot of organizations. It is a performance measurement system which translates mission and strategy into objectives. Strategy map approach is a development variant of BSC in which some necessary causal relations must be established. To recognize these relations, experts usually use experience. It is also possible to utilize regression for the same purpose. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is one of the most powerful methods of multivariate data analysis, obtains more appropriate results than traditional methods such as regression. In the present paper, we propose SEM for the first time to identify the relations between objectives in the strategy map, and a test to measure the importance of relations. In SEM, factor analysis and test of hypotheses are done in the same analysis. SEM is known to be better than other techniques at supporting analysis and reporting. Our approach provides a framework which permits the experts to design the strategy map by applying a comprehensive and scientific method together with their experience. Therefore this scheme is a more reliable method in comparison with the previously established methods.

Keywords: BSC, SEM, Strategy map.

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Authors: Vytautas Galvanauskas, Vykantas Grincas, Rimvydas Simutis

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This paper investigates a possible practical solution for reasonable oxygen supply during the pluripotent stem cells expansion processes, where the stem cells propagate as aggregates in stirred-suspension bioreactors. Low glucose and low oxygen concentrations are preferred for efficient proliferation of pluripotent stem cells. However, strong oxygen limitation, especially inside of cell aggregates, can lead to cell starvation and death. In this research, the oxygen concentration profile inside of stem cell aggregates in a stem cell expansion process was predicted using a modified oxygen diffusion model. This profile can be realized during the stem cells cultivation process by manipulating the oxygen concentration in inlet gas or inlet gas flow. The proposed approach is relatively simple and may be attractive for installation in a real pluripotent stem cell expansion processes.

Keywords: Aggregated stem cells, dissolved oxygen profiles, modeling, stirred-tank, 3D expansion.

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Authors: Hojjat Saberinejad, Adel Hashiehbaf, Ehsan Afrasiabian

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Among the various cooling processes in industrial applications such as: electronic devices, heat exchangers, gas turbines, etc. Gas turbine blades cooling is the most challenging one. One of the most common practices is using ribbed wall because of the boundary layer excitation and therefore making the ultimate cooling. Vortex formation between rib and channel wall will result in a complicated behavior of flow regime. At the other hand, selecting the most efficient method for capturing the best results comparing to experimental works would be a fascinating issue. In this paper 4 common methods in turbulence modeling: standard k-e, rationalized k-e with enhanced wall boundary layer treatment, k-w and RSM (Reynolds stress model) are employed to a square ribbed channel to investigate the separation and thermal behavior of the flow in the channel. Finally all results from different methods which are used in this paper will be compared with experimental data available in literature to ensure the numerical method accuracy.

Keywords: boundary layer, turbulence, numerical method, rib cooling

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Authors: Moaz H. Ali, M. N. M. Ansari

Abstract:

This paper presents a study the effect of nose radius (Rz-mm) on cutting force components and temperatures during the machining simulation in an orthogonal cutting process for titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V). The cutting process was performed at various nose radiuses (Rz-mm) while the depth of cut (d-mm), feed rate (fmm/ tooth) and cutting speed (vc-m/ min) were remained constant. The main cutting force (Fc), feed cutting force (Ft) and temperatures were estimated by using finite element modeling (FEM) through ABAQUS/EXPLICIT software and the simulation was developed the two-dimension via an orthogonal cutting process during machining titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V). The results led to the conclusion that the nose radius (Rz-mm) has affected directly on the cutting force components. However, temperature gave no indication or has no significant relation with nose radius during machining titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V). Hence, any increase or decrease in the nose radius (Rzmm) during machining operation led to effect on the cutting forces and thus it will be effective on surface finish, quality, and quantity of products.

Keywords: Finite element modeling (FEM), nose radius, cutting force, temperature, titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V).

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Authors: Rujijan Vichivanives

Abstract:

This research aims to create a knowledge-based system as a database for self-healthcare analysis, diagnosis of simple illnesses, and the use of Thai herbs instead of modern medicine by using principles of Thai traditional medication theory. These were disseminated by website network programs within Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The population used in this study was divided into two groups: the first group consisted of four experts of Thai traditional medication and the second group was 300 website users. The methods used for collecting data were paper questionnaires and poll questionnaires on the website. The statistics used for analyzing data was at an average level. The results were divided into three parts: the first part was the development of a knowledge-based system and the second part was applied programs on website. Both parts could be fulfilled and achieved according to the set goal. The third part was the evaluation of the study: The evaluation of the viewpoints of the experts towards website designs were evaluated at a good level of 4.20. The satisfaction evaluation of the users was found at a good level of average satisfactory level at 4.24. It was found that the young population of those under the age of 16 had less cares about their health than the population of other teenagers, working age adults and those of older age. The research findings should be extended in order to encourage the lifestyle modifications to people of all ages by using the self-healthcare principles.

Keywords: Developing, Herbs, Knowledge-based system, Medical treatment.

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Authors: Wala A. Bagunaid, Maram Meccawy, Arwa Allinjawi, Zilal Meccawy

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Continuous self-assessment becomes crucial in self-paced online learning environments. Students often depend on themselves to assess their progress; which is considered an essential requirement for any successful learning process. Today’s education institutions face major problems around student motivation and engagement. Thus, personalized e-learning systems aim to help and guide the students. Gamification provides an opportunity to help students for self-assessment and social comparison with other students through attempting to harness the motivational power of games and apply it to the learning environment. Furthermore, Open Social Student Modeling (OSSM) as considered as the latest user modeling technologies is believed to improve students’ self-assessment and to allow them to social comparison with other students. This research integrates OSSM approach and gamification concepts in order to provide self-assessment for English language learners at King Abdulaziz University (KAU). This is achieved through an interactive visual representation of their learning progress.

Keywords: E-learning system, gamification, motivation, social comparison, visualization.

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Authors: Karima Qayumi, Alex Norta

Abstract:

The rapid generation of high volume and a broad variety of data from the application of new technologies pose challenges for the generation of business-intelligence. Most organizations and business owners need to extract data from multiple sources and apply analytical methods for the purposes of developing their business. Therefore, the recently decentralized data management environment is relying on a distributed computing paradigm. While data are stored in highly distributed systems, the implementation of distributed data-mining techniques is a challenge. The aim of this technique is to gather knowledge from every domain and all the datasets stemming from distributed resources. As agent technologies offer significant contributions for managing the complexity of distributed systems, we consider this for next-generation data-mining processes. To demonstrate agent-based business intelligence operations, we use agent-oriented modeling techniques to develop a new artifact for mining massive datasets.

Keywords: Agent-oriented modeling, business Intelligence management, distributed data mining, multi-agent system.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun, I.M. Tang

Abstract:

Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from P. falciparum malaria in that a person suffering from P. vivax infection can suffer relapses of the disease. This is due the parasite being able to remain dormant in the liver of the patients where it is able to re-infect the patient after a passage of time. During this stage, the patient is classified as being in the dormant class. The model to describe the transmission of P. vivax malaria consists of a human population divided into four classes, the susceptible, the infected, the dormant and the recovered. The effect of a time delay on the transmission of this disease is studied. The time delay is the period in which the P. vivax parasite develops inside the mosquito (vector) before the vector becomes infectious (i.e., pass on the infection). We analyze our model by using standard dynamic modeling method. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease free state E0 and an endemic state E1, are found to be possible. It is found that the E0 state is stable when a newly defined basic reproduction number G is less than one. If G is greater than one the endemic state E1 is stable. The conditions for the endemic equilibrium state E1 to be a stable spiral node are established. For realistic values of the parameters in the model, it is found that solutions in phase space are trajectories spiraling into the endemic state. It is shown that the limit cycle and chaotic behaviors can only be achieved with unrealistic parameter values.

Keywords: Equilibrium states, Hopf bifurcation, limit cyclebehavior, local stability, Plasmodium Vivax, time delay.

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Authors: P. V. V. Rama Rao, B. Kali Prasanna, Y. T. R. Palleswari

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Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly. Included in the definition is electricity and heat generated from solar, wind, ocean, hydropower, biomass, geothermal resources, and bio-fuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources. Each of these sources has unique characteristics which influence how and where they are used. This paper presents the modeling the simulation of solar and hydro hybrid energy sources in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. It simulates all quantities of Hybrid Electrical Power system (HEPS) such as AC output current of the inverter that injected to the load/grid, load current, grid current. It also simulates power output from PV and Hydraulic Turbine Generator (HTG), power delivered to or from grid and finally power factor of the inverter for PV, HTG and grid. The proposed circuit uses instantaneous p-q (real-imaginary) power theory.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Array, Hydraulic Turbine Generator, Electrical Utility (EU), Hybrid Electrical Power Supply.

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Authors: Charbel Geryes Aoun, Loic Lagadec

Abstract:

A Sensor Network (SN) is considered as an operation of two phases: (1) the observation/measuring, which means the accumulation of the gathered data at each sensor node; (2) transferring the collected data to some processing center (e.g. Fusion Servers) within the SN. Therefore, an underwater sensor network can be defined as a sensor network deployed underwater that monitors underwater activity. The deployed sensors, such as hydrophones, are responsible for registering underwater activity and transferring it to more advanced components. The process of data exchange between the aforementioned components perfectly defines the Marine Observatory (MO) concept which provides information on ocean state, phenomena and processes. The first step towards the implementation of this concept is defining the environmental constraints and the required tools and components (Marine Cables, Smart Sensors, Data Fusion Server, etc). The logical and physical components that are used in these observatories perform some critical functions such as the localization of underwater moving objects. These functions can be orchestrated with other services (e.g. military or civilian reaction). In this paper, we present an extension to our MO meta-model that is used to generate a design tool (ArchiMO). We propose constraints to be taken into consideration at design time. We illustrate our proposal with an example from the MO domain. Additionally, we generate the corresponding simulation code using our self-developed domain-specific model compiler. On the one hand, this illustrates our approach in relying on Enterprise Architecture (EA) framework that respects: multiple-views, perspectives of stakeholders, and domain specificity. On the other hand, it helps reducing both complexity and time spent in design activity, while preventing from design modeling errors during porting this activity in the MO domain. As conclusion, this work aims to demonstrate that we can improve the design activity of complex system based on the use of MDE technologies and a domain-specific modeling language with the associated tooling. The major improvement is to provide an early validation step via models and simulation approach to consolidate the system design.

Keywords: Smart sensors, data fusion, distributed fusion architecture, sensor networks, domain specific modeling language, enterprise architecture, underwater moving object, localization, marine observatory, NS-3, IMS.

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Authors: M. A. Ghorbani, M. Pasbani Khiavi

Abstract:

In this paper, the dam-reservoir interaction is analyzed using a finite element approach. The fluid is assumed to be incompressible, irrotational and inviscid. The assumed boundary conditions are that the interface of the dam and reservoir is vertical and the bottom of reservoir is rigid and horizontal. The governing equation for these boundary conditions is implemented in the developed finite element code considering the horizontal and vertical earthquake components. The weighted residual standard Galerkin finite element technique with 8-node elements is used to discretize the equation that produces a symmetric matrix equation for the damreservoir system. A new boundary condition is proposed for truncating surface of unbounded fluid domain to show the energy dissipation in the reservoir, through radiation in the infinite upstream direction. The Sommerfeld-s and perfect damping boundary conditions are also implemented for a truncated boundary to compare with the proposed far end boundary. The results are compared with an analytical solution to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed formulation and other truncated boundary conditions in modeling the hydrodynamic response of an infinite reservoir.

Keywords: Reservoir, finite element, truncated boundary, hydrodynamic pressure

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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Authors: Rida B. Arieby

Abstract:

This study deals with the experimental investigation and theoretical modeling of Semi crystalline polymeric materials with a rubbery amorphous phase (HDPE) subjected to a uniaxial cyclic tests with various maximum strain levels, even at large deformation. Each cycle is loaded in tension up to certain maximum strain and then unloaded down to zero stress with N number of cycles. This work is focuses on the measure of the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage during this kind of tests. On the basis of thermodynamics of relaxation processes, a constitutive model for large strain deformation has been developed, taking into account the damage effect, to predict the complex elasto-viscoelastic-viscoplastic behavior of material. A direct comparison between the model predictions and the experimental data show that the model accurately captures the material response. The model is also capable of predicting the influence damage causing volume variation.

Keywords: Cyclic test, large strain, polymers semi-crystalline, Volume strain, Thermodynamics of Irreversible Processes.

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