Search results for: Market Prediction.

Authors: Amel Abdoullah Ahmed Dghais, Mohd Tahir Ismail

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In this paper the core objective is to apply discrete wavelet transform and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform functions namely Haar, Daubechies2, Symmlet4, Coiflet2 and discrete approximation of the Meyer wavelets in non stationary financial time series data from Dow Jones index (DJIA30) of US stock market. The data consists of 2048 daily data of closing index from December 17, 2004 to October 23, 2012. Unit root test affirms that the data is non stationary in the level. A comparison between the results to transform non stationary data to stationary data using aforesaid transforms is given which clearly shows that the decomposition stock market index by discrete wavelet transform is better than maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform for original data.

Keywords: Discrete wavelet transform, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, stationarity, autocorrelation function.

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment, deep neural networks.

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Authors: Josefina Bengoechea, Alex Bell

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Higher education, with its brick-and-mortar facilities and credits-based on hours of study, was developed to serve the needs of a national, industrial, analogue economy. However, the ongoing process of globalization on the one hand, and the emergence of ever-changing needs of employers on the other hand, make this type of process-based education obsolete, and exclusive to students who can afford to pay a full-time tuition and dedicate 4 years of their lives exclusively to study. The creative destruction brought about by new technologies in the 21st century will not only reconfigure the labour market, as millions of jobs will be lost to Artificial Intelligence. The purpose of this paper is to consider if the implementation of technology is the solution to the problems faced in higher education. The paper builds upon a constructivist approach, combining a literature review and research on key publications.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, employability, labour market, new technology in higher education.

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Authors: J. Y. Jang, Y. W. Lee, C. N. Lin, C. H. Wang

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The reheating furnace is used to reheat the steel slabs before the hot-rolling process. The supported system includes the stationary/moving beams, and the skid buttons which block some thermal radiation transmitted to the bottom of the slabs. Therefore, it is important to analyze the steel slab temperature distribution during the heating period. A three-dimensional mathematical transient heat transfer model for the prediction of temperature distribution within the slab has been developed. The effects of different skid button height (H=60mm, 90mm, and 120mm) and different gap distance between two slabs (S=50mm, 75mm, and 100mm) on the slab skid mark formation and temperature profiles are investigated. Comparison with the in-situ experimental data from Steel Company in Taiwan shows that the present heat transfer model works well for the prediction of thermal behavior of the slab in the reheating furnace. It is found that the skid mark severity decreases with an increase in the skid button height. The effect of gap distance is important only for the slab edge planes, while it is insignificant for the slab central planes.

Keywords: 3-D, slab, transient heat conduction, reheating furnace, thermal radiation.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Farnaz Motamediyan Dehkordi, Anthony Thompson, Tobias Larsson

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Market competition and a desire to gain advantages on globalized market, drives companies towards innovation efforts. Project overload is an unpleasant phenomenon, which is happening for employees inside those organizations trying to make the most efficient use of their resources to be innovative. But what are the impacts of project overload on organization-s innovation capabilities? Advanced engineering teams (AE) inside a major heavy equipment manufacturer are suffering from project overload in their quest for innovation. In this paper, Agent-based modeling (ABM) is used to examine the current reality of the company context, and of the AE team, where the opportunities and challenges for reducing the risk of project overload and moving towards innovation were identified. Project overload is more likely to stifle innovation and creativity inside teams. On the other hand, motivations on proper challenging goals are more likely to help individual to alleviate the negative aspects of low level of project overload.

Keywords: Innovation, Creativity, Project overload, Agentbased modelling.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

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This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: Mohammed Saleem Tariq

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The enthusiasm for gluten avoidance in a growing market is met by improvements in sensitive detection methods for analysing gluten content. Paradoxically, manufacturers employ no such systems in the production process but continue to market their product as gluten free, a significant risk posed to an undetermined coeliac population. This paper resonates with an immunological response that causes gastrointestinal scarring and villous atrophy with the conventional description of personal injury. This thesis divulges into evaluating potential inadequacies of gluten labelling laws which not only present a diagnostic challenge for general practitioners in the UK but it also exposes a less than adequate form of available legal protection to those who suffer adverse reactions as a result of gluten digestion. Central to this discussion is whether a claim brought in misrepresentation, negligence and/or under the Consumer Protection Act 1987 could be sustained. An interesting comparison is then made with the legal regimes of neighboring jurisdictions furthering the theme of a legally un-catered for gluten kingdom.

Keywords: Coeliac, litigation, misrepresentation, negligence.

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Authors: L. Agneni, F. Carta, C. Micheletta, V. Tersigni

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The development of a qualitative method to profile jobseekers is needed to improve the quality of the Public Employment Services (PES) in Italy. This is why the National Agency for Active Labour Market Policies (ANPAL) decided to introduce a Qualitative Profiling Service in the context of the activities carried out by local employment offices’ operators. The qualitative profiling service provides information and data regarding the jobseeker’s personal transition status, through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to PES clients during the guidance interview. The questionnaire responses allow PES staff to identify, for each client, proper activities and policy measures to support jobseekers in their reintegration into the labour market. Data and information gathered by the qualitative profiling tool are the following: frequency, modalities and motivations for clients to apply to local employment offices; clients’ expectations and skills; difficulties that they have faced during the previous working experiences; strategies, actions undertaken and activated channels for job search. These data are used to assess jobseekers’ personal and career characteristics and to measure their employability level (qualitative profiling index), in order to develop and deliver tailor-made action programmes for each client. This paper illustrates the use of the above-mentioned qualitative profiling service on the national territory and provides an overview of the main findings of the survey: concerning the difficulties that unemployed people face in finding a job and their perception of different aspects related to the transition in the labour market. The survey involved over 10.000 jobseekers registered with the PES. Most of them are beneficiaries of the “citizens' income”, a specific active labour policy and social inclusion measure. Furthermore, data analysis allows classifying jobseekers into a specific group of clients with similar features and behaviours, on the basis of socio-demographic variables, customers' expectations, needs and required skills for the profession for which they seek employment. Finally, the survey collects PES staff opinions and comments concerning clients’ difficulties in finding a new job and also their strengths. This is a starting point for PESs’ operators to define adequate strategies to facilitate jobseekers’ access or reintegration into the labour market.

Keywords: Labour market transition, Public Employment Services, qualitative profiling, vocational guidance.

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Authors: Jailan Mohamed El Demerdash

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Millennials are a distinctive and dominant consumer group whose behavior, preferences and purchase decisions are broadly explored but not fully understood yet. Making up the largest market segment in the world, and in Egypt, they have the power to reinvent the hospitality industry and contribute to forming prospective demand for green hotels by showing willingness to adopting their environmental-friendly practices. The current study aims to enhance better understanding of Millennials' perception about sustainable initiatives and to increase the prediction power of their intentions regarding green hotel practices in Egypt. In doing so, the study is exploring the relation among different factors; Millennials' environmental awareness, their acceptance of green practices and their willingness to pay more for them. Millennials' profile, their preferences and environmental decision-making process are brought under light to stimulate actions of hospitality decision-makers and hoteliers. Bearing in mind that responsible consumerism is depending on understanding the different influences on consumption. The study questionnaire was composed of four sections and it was distributed to random Egyptian travelers' blogs and Facebook groups, with approximately 8000 members. Analysis of variance test (ANOVA) was used to examine the study variables. The findings indicated that Millennials' environmental awareness will not be a significant factor in their acceptance of hotel green practices, as well as, their willingness to pay more for them. However, Millennials' acceptance of the level of hotel green practices will have an impact on their willingness to pay more. Millennials were found to have a noticeable level of environmental awareness but lack commitment to tolerating hotel green practices and their associated high prices.

Keywords: Millennials, environment, awareness, green practices, paying more, Egypt.

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Authors: Han Guan Chew, Keith Yong Ngee Ng, Shan-Wei Fan

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In Singapore, talent retention is one of the most persistent and real issue companies have to grapple with due to the tight labour market. Being resource-scarce, Singapore depends solely on its talented pool of high quality human resource to sustain its competitive advantage in the global economy. But the complex and multifaceted nature of turnover phenomenon makes the prescription of effective talent retention strategies in such a competitive labour market very challenging, especially when it comes to monetary incentives, companies struggle to answer the question of “How much is enough?” By examining the interactive effects of perceived alternative employment opportunities, annual salary and satisfaction with compensation on the turnover intention of 102 Singapore Professionals, Managers, Executives and Technicians (PMET) through correlation analyses and multiple regressions, important insights into the psyche of the Singapore talent pool can be drawn. It is found that annual salary influence turnover intention indirectly through mediation and moderation effects on PMET’s satisfaction on compensation. PMET are also found to be heavily swayed by better external opportunities. This implies that talent retention strategies should not adopt a purely monetary based blanket approach but rather a comprehensive and holistic one that considers the dynamics of prevailing market conditions.

Keywords: Employee Turnover, High Performers, Knowledge Workers, Perceived Alternative Employment Opportunities Salary, Satisfaction on Compensation, Singapore PMET, Talent Retention.

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the political and economic issues that people with disabilities face related to globalization; how people with disabilities have been adapting globalization and surviving under worldwide competition system. It explains that economic globalization exacerbates inequality and deprivation of people with disabilities. The rising tide of neo-liberal welfare policies emphasized efficiency, downsized social expenditure for people with disabilities, excluded people with disabilities against labor market, and shifted them from welfare system to nothing. However, there have been people with disabilities' political responses to globalization, which are characterized by a global network of people with disabilities as well as participation to global governance. Their resistance can be seen as an attempt to tackle the problems that economic globalization has produced. It is necessary paradigm shift of disability policy from dependency represented by disability benefits to independency represented by labor market policies for people with disabilities.

Keywords: Economic Globalization, People with Disability, Deprivation, Welfare Cut, Disability Right Movement, Resistance.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Pei. P. Tan, Don. U.A. Galagedera, Elizabeth A.Maharaj

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This paper examines predictability in stock return in developed and emergingmarkets by testing long memory in stock returns using wavelet approach. Wavelet-based maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional integration estimator is superior to the conventional Hurst exponent and Geweke and Porter-Hudak estimator in terms of asymptotic properties and mean squared error. We use 4-year moving windows to estimate the fractional integration parameter. Evidence suggests that stock return may not be predictable indeveloped countries of the Asia-Pacificregion. However, predictability of stock return insome developing countries in this region such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines may not be ruled out. Stock return in the Thailand stock market appears to be not predictable after the political crisis in 2008.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific stock market, long-memory, return predictability, wavelet

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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Authors: Mojtaba Molaahmadi, Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Abdolrahim Arghavan

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The present study aims to explore the effect of computerization on marketing performance in Snowa Company. In other words, this study intends to respond to this question that whether or not, is there any relationship between utilization of computerization in marketing activities and marketing performance? The statistical population included 60 marketing managers of Snowa Company. In order to test the research hypotheses, Pearson correlation coefficient was employed. The reliability was equal to 96.8%. In this study, computerization was the independent variable and marketing performance was the dependent variable with characteristics of market share, improving the competitive position, and sales volume. The results of testing the hypotheses revealed that there is a significant relationship between utilization of computerization and market share, sales volume and improving the competitive position.

Keywords: Computerization, e-marketing information, information technology, marketing performance.

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Authors: V. Agrawal, A. Sharma

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High Strength Concrete (HSC) is defined as concrete that meets special combination of performance and uniformity requirements that cannot be achieved routinely using conventional constituents and normal mixing, placing, and curing procedures. It is a highly complex material, which makes modeling its behavior a very difficult task. This paper aimed to show possible applicability of Neural Networks (NN) to predict the slump in High Strength Concrete (HSC). Neural Network models is constructed, trained and tested using the available test data of 349 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) gathered from a particular Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) batching plant. The most versatile Neural Network model is selected to predict the slump in concrete. The data used in the Neural Network models are arranged in a format of eight input parameters that cover the Cement, Fly Ash, Sand, Coarse Aggregate (10 mm), Coarse Aggregate (20 mm), Water, Super-Plasticizer and Water/Binder ratio. Furthermore, to test the accuracy for predicting slump in concrete, the final selected model is further used to test the data of 40 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) taken from the other batching plant. The results are compared on the basis of error function (or performance function).

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Concrete, prediction ofslump, slump in concrete

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Authors: Subarna Ferdous, Mitsuru Ikeda

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For the shrimp companies to remain relevant to its local and international consumers, they must offer new shrimp product and services. It must work actively not just to create value for the consumer, but to involve the consumer in co-creating value for shrimp product innovation in the market. In this theoretical work, we conceptualize the business concept of value co-creation in the context of shrimp products, and propose a framework of value co-creation for shrimp product innovation in shrimp industries. With guidance on value co-creation in in shrimp industry, and shrimp value chain actors mapped to the co-creation cycle, companies can use the framework to offer new shrimp product to consumer communities. Although customer co-creation is known approach in the world, it is not commonly used by the companies in Bangladesh. This paper makes an original contribution by conceptualizing co-creation and set the examples of best co-creation practices in food sector. The results of the study provide management with guidelines for successful co-creation projects with an innovation- and market-oriented approach. The framework also provides a basis for further research in this area.

Keywords: Bangladesh, shrimp industry, shrimp product, value co-creation.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Jafari, Mohammad Ghomi Avili, Emad Benhelal

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In this study, a mathematical model was proposed and the accuracy of this model was assessed to predict the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and rhamnolipid production under nitrogen limiting (sodium nitrate) fed-batch fermentation. All of the parameters used in this model were achieved individually without using any data from the literature. The overall growth kinetic of the strain was evaluated using a dual-parallel substrate Monod equation which was described by several batch experimental data. Fed-batch data under different glycerol (as the sole carbon source, C/N=10) concentrations and feed flow rates were used to describe the proposed fed-batch model and other parameters. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed model several verification experiments were performed in a vast range of initial glycerol concentrations. While the results showed an acceptable prediction for rhamnolipid production (less than 10% error), in case of biomass prediction the errors were less than 23%. It was also found that the rhamnolipid production by P. aeruginosa was more sensitive at low glycerol concentrations. Based on the findings of this work, it was concluded that the proposed model could effectively be employed for rhamnolipid production by this strain under fed-batch fermentation on up to 80 g l- 1 glycerol.

Keywords: Fed-batch culture, glycerol, kinetic parameters, modelling, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, rhamnolipid.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: P.Cordero, R.Poler, R.Sanchis

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The environmental impacts caused by the current production and consumption models, together with the impact that the current economic crisis, bring necessary changes in the European industry toward new business models based on sustainability issues that could allow them to innovate and improve their competitiveness. This paper analyzes the key environmental issues and the current and future market trends in one of the most important industrial sectors in Spain, the furniture sector. It also proposes new decision support tools -diagnostic kit, roadmap and guidelines- to guide companies to implement sustainability criteria into their organizations, including eco-design strategies and other economical and social strategies in accordance with the sustainability definition, and other available tools such as eco-labels, environmental management systems, etc., and to use and combine them to obtain the results the company expects to help improve its competitiveness.

Keywords: Furniture sector, eco-design, sustainability, economical crisis, market trends, roadmap

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Authors: Achut Manandhar, Kenneth D. Morton, Peter A. Torrione, Leslie M. Collins

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The current trends in affect recognition research are to consider continuous observations from spontaneous natural interactions in people using multiple feature modalities, and to represent affect in terms of continuous dimensions, incorporate spatio-temporal correlation among affect dimensions, and provide fast affect predictions. These research efforts have been propelled by a growing effort to develop affect recognition system that can be implemented to enable seamless real-time human-computer interaction in a wide variety of applications. Motivated by these desired attributes of an affect recognition system, in this work a multi-dimensional affect prediction approach is proposed by integrating multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM) with a recently developed Output-associative Relevance Vector Machine (OARVM) approach. The resulting approach can provide fast continuous affect predictions by jointly modeling the multiple affect dimensions and their correlations. Experiments on the RECOLA database show that the proposed approach performs competitively with the OARVM while providing faster predictions during testing.

Keywords: Dimensional affect prediction, Output-associative RVM, Multivariate regression.

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Authors: Rute Abreu, Fátima David, Liliane Cristina Segura

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The Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) and its communication with the Society, in general, and with the deposit client of Financial Institutions, in particular, is discussed through the challenges of the accounting and financial report. The Bank of Portugal promotes the Portuguese Deposit Guarantee Fund (PDGF) as a financial institution that enhanced the market confidence and stability on the deposit-insurance system. Due to the nature of their functions, it must be subject to regulation and supervision that provides a first line of defense against adversely affect confidence on the Portuguese financial market. First, this research provides evidence of the effectiveness of the protection mechanisms on the deposit insurance system, which provides high and equal protection to all stakeholders. Second, it emphasizes the need of requirements of rigorous accounting process and effective financial report to reduce the moral hazard implications. Third, this research focuses on the need of total disclosure of the financial information which gives higher transparency and protection to deposit client of financial institutions.

Keywords: Deposit Guarantee Fund, Portugal, Accounting, Financial Report.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: X. Wang, J. S. Kuang

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The Fixed-angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-stiffening (FASTMT) has a superior performance in predicting the shear behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) membrane elements, especially for the post-cracking behaviour. Nevertheless, massive computational work is inevitable due to the multiple transcendental equations involved in the stress-strain relationship. In this paper, an iterative root-finding technique is introduced to FASTMT for solving quickly the transcendental equations of the tension-stiffening effect of RC membrane elements. This fast FASTMT, which performs in MATLAB, uses the bisection method to calculate the tensile stress of the membranes. By adopting the simplification, the elapsed time of each loop is reduced significantly and the transcendental equations can be solved accurately. Owing to the high efficiency and good accuracy as compared with FASTMT, the fast FASTMT can be further applied in quick prediction of shear behaviour of complex large-scale RC structures.

Keywords: Bisection method, fixed-angle softened truss model with tension-stiffening, iterative root-finding technique, reinforced concrete membrane.

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Authors: P. V. Pramila, V. Mahesh

Abstract:

Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients resulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF25, PEF, FEF25-75, FEF50 and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects) with the aforementioned input features. It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, as well as yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV1, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Pulmonary Function Test, Random Forest.

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

Abstract:

How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

Abstract:

To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: Travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, neural network model, traffic resource allocation.

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Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

Abstract:

Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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