Search results for: predictions

Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a two-neuron system with time-delayed connections between neurons. By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcation is demonstrated. Some explicit formulae for determining the stability and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation periodic solutions bifurcating from Hopf bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory and center manifold theory. Some numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: Two-neuron system, delay, stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

Abstract:

According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: Amir. AL-Haddad, Hisham. Ettouney, Samiya. Saqer

Abstract:

The main objectives of this paper are to measure pollutants concentrations in the oil refinery area in Kuwait over three periods during one year, obtain recent emission inventory for the three refineries of Kuwait, use AERMOD and the emission inventory to predict pollutants concentrations and distribution, compare model predictions against measured data, and perform numerical experiments to determine conditions at which emission rates and the resulting pollutant dispersion is below maximum allowable limits.

Keywords: Emissions, ISCST3 model, Modeling, Pollutants, Refinery

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Authors: S. Mousavian, F. Mousavian, V. Nikkhah Rashidabad

Abstract:

Cubic equations of state like Redlich–Kwong (RK)  EOS have been proved to be very reliable tools in the prediction of  phase behavior. Despite their good performance in compositional  calculations, they usually suffer from weaknesses in the predictions  of saturated liquid density. In this research, RK equation was  modified. The result of this study show that modified equation has  good agreement with experimental data.

 

Keywords: Equation of state, modification, ammonia, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

Abstract:

Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: Pieter C. M. Cornelis

Abstract:

(European) theme parks invest approximately 10 percent of their yearly turnover into new rides and park improvements. Without these investments these parks assume not to be a very competitive and appealing daytrip for their target audiences. However, the impact of investments in attracting new visitors is not well-known and seems to differ dramatically between parks. This paper presents a case study from the Netherlands in which a small amusement park applied a suggested, not yet proven, investment method. The results of the investment are discussed in (a) the form of return on investment and (b) the success of the predictions with regard to this investment. Suggestions for future research are presented.

Keywords: Entertainment industry, innovation, investments, theme parks.

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Authors: Damith Senanayake, Lakmal Muthugama, Laksheen Mendis, Tiroshan Madushanka

Abstract:

Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning methods.

Keywords: Growing Self Organizing Maps, Kernel Methods, Churn Prediction.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Jalali, Mohammad M. Jalali

Abstract:

The earliest theories of sloshing waves and solitary waves based on potential theory idealisations and irrotational flow have been extended to be applicable to more realistic domains. To this end, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods are widely used. Three-dimensional CFD methods such as Navier-Stokes solvers with volume of fluid treatment of the free surface and Navier-Stokes solvers with mappings of the free surface inherently impose high computational expense; therefore, considerable effort has gone into developing depth-averaged approaches. Examples of such approaches include Green–Naghdi (GN) equations. In Cartesian system, GN velocity profile depends on horizontal directions, x-direction and y-direction. The effect of vertical direction (z-direction) is also taken into consideration by applying weighting function in approximation. GN theory considers the effect of vertical acceleration and the consequent non-hydrostatic pressure. Moreover, in GN theory, the flow is rotational. The present study illustrates the application of GN equations to propagation of sloshing waves and solitary waves. For this purpose, GN equations solver is verified for the benchmark tests of Gaussian hump sloshing and solitary wave propagation in shallow basins. Analysis of the free surface sloshing of even harmonic components of an initial Gaussian hump demonstrates that the GN model gives predictions in satisfactory agreement with the linear analytical solutions. Discrepancies between the GN predictions and the linear analytical solutions arise from the effect of wave nonlinearities arising from the wave amplitude itself and wave-wave interactions. Numerically predicted solitary wave propagation indicates that the GN model produces simulations in good agreement with the analytical solution of the linearised wave theory. Comparison between the GN model numerical prediction and the result from perturbation analysis confirms that nonlinear interaction between solitary wave and a solid wall is satisfactorilly modelled. Moreover, solitary wave propagation at an angle to the x-axis and the interaction of solitary waves with each other are conducted to validate the developed model.

Keywords: Even harmonic components of sloshing waves, Green–Naghdi equations, nonlinearity, solitary waves.

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Authors: Sh. Hamada, N. Burtebayev, N. Amangeldi, A. Amar

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to study the elastic transfer phenomenon which takes place in the elastic scattering of 16O on 12C at energies near the Coulomb barrier. Where, the angular distribution decrease steadily with increasing the scattering angle, then the cross section will increase at backward angles due to the α-transfer process. This reaction was also studied at different energies for tracking the nuclear rainbow phenomenon. The experimental data of the angular distribution at these energies were compared to the calculation predictions. The optical potential codes such as SPIVAL and Distorted Wave Born Approximation (DWUCK5) were used in analysis.

Keywords: Transfer reaction, DWBA, Elastic Scattering, Optical Potential Codes.

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Authors: A. Dal Monte, M. Raciti Castelli, G. B. Bellato, L. Stevanato, E. Benini

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The wind resource in the Italian site of Lendinara (RO) is analyzed through a systematic anemometric campaign performed on the top of the bell tower, at an altitude of over 100 m above the ground. Both the average wind speed and the Weibull distribution are computed. The resulting average wind velocity is in accordance with the numerical predictions of the Italian Wind Atlas, confirming the accuracy of the extrapolation of wind data adopted for the evaluation of wind potential at higher altitudes with respect to the commonly placed measurement stations.

Keywords: Anemometric campaign, wind resource, Weibull distribution, wind atlas

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Authors: Mogens Frank Mikkelsen

Abstract:

Special Relativity Theory (SRT) includes only one characteristic of light, the speed is equal to all observers, and by excluding other relevant characteristics of light, the common interpretation of SRT should be regarded as merely an approximative theory. By rethinking the iconic double light cones, a revised version of SRT can be developed. The revised concept of light cones acknowledges an asymmetry of past and future light cones and introduced a concept of the extended past to explain the predictions as something other than the future. Combining this with the concept of photon-paired events, led to the inference that SRT can support the existence of Now. The paper takes a critical approach to the mathematical assumption behind current interpretation of SRT.

Keywords: Relativity, light cone, Minkowski, time.

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Authors: P.-W. Tsai, J.-W. Chen, C.-W. Chen, C.-Y. Chen

Abstract:

In recent years, many researchers are involved in the field of fuzzy theory. However, there are still a lot of issues to be resolved. Especially on topics related to controller design such as the field of robot, artificial intelligence, and nonlinear systems etc. Besides fuzzy theory, algorithms in swarm intelligence are also a popular field for the researchers. In this paper, a concept of utilizing one of the swarm intelligence method, which is called Bacterial-GA Foraging, to find the stabilized common P matrix for the fuzzy controller system is proposed. An example is given in in the paper, as well.

Keywords: Half-circle fuzzy numbers, predictions, swarm intelligence, Lyapunov method.

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Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

Abstract:

Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nanoparticles under the influence of electric field in Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined fielddiffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multichannel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with no uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: Aerosol Nano-Particle, CFD, Electrical Mobility Spectrometer, Von Neumann entropy.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, P. Cioppa, E. Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow around a 30° inclined flat plate of infinite span. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a flat plate invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested and flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been numerically investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional inclined plate.

Keywords: CFD, lift, drag, flat plate

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Authors: Sylvia Encheva

Abstract:

Students in high education are presented with new terms and concepts in nearly every lecture they attend. Many of them prefer Web-based self-tests for evaluation of their concepts understanding since they can use those tests independently of tutors- working hours and thus avoid the necessity of being in a particular place at a particular time. There is a large number of multiple-choice tests in almost every subject designed to contribute to higher level learning or discover misconceptions. Every single test provides immediate feedback to a student about the outcome of that test. In some cases a supporting system displays an overall score in case a test is taken several times by a student. What we still find missing is how to secure delivering of personalized feedback to a user while taking into consideration the user-s progress. The present work is motivated to throw some light on that question.

Keywords: Clustering, rough sets, many valued logic, predictions

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Authors: S.Asadi, H.Panahi

Abstract:

The Navier–Stokes equations for unsteady, incompressible, viscous fluids in the axisymmetric coordinate system are solved using a control volume method. The volume-of-fluid (VOF) technique is used to track the free-surface of the liquid. Model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. It is found that the dynamic processes after impact are sensitive to the initial droplet velocity and the liquid pool depth. The time evolution of the crown height and diameter are obtained by numerical simulation. The critical We number for splashing (Wecr) is studied for Oh (Ohnesorge) numbers in the range of 0.01~0.1; the results compares well with those of the experiments.

Keywords: Droplet impingement, free surface flows, liquid crown, numerical simulation, thin liquid film.

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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Authors: B. R. Shen, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih, Y. Chiang, Y. F. Chang, Y. H. Huang

Abstract:

In this research, TRACE code with the interface code-SNAP was used to simulate and analyze the SBO (station blackout) accident which occurred in Maanshan PWR (pressurized water reactor) nuclear power plant (NPP). There are four main steps in this research. First, the SBO accident data of Maanshan NPP were collected. Second, the TRACE/SNAP model of Maanshan NPP was established by using these data. Third, this TRACE/SNAP model was used to perform the simulation and analysis of SBO accident. Finally, the simulation and analysis of SBO with mitigation equipments was performed. The analysis results of TRACE are consistent with the data of Maanshan NPP. The mitigation equipments of Maanshan can maintain the safety of Maanshan in the SBO according to the TRACE predictions.

Keywords: PWR, TRACE, SBO, Maanshan.

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Authors: Vimala Balakrishnan, Mohammad R. Shakouri, Hooman Hoodeh, Loo, Huck-Soo

Abstract:

Diabetes is one of the high prevalence diseases worldwide with increased number of complications, with retinopathy as one of the most common one. This paper describes how data mining and case-based reasoning were integrated to predict retinopathy prevalence among diabetes patients in Malaysia. The knowledge base required was built after literature reviews and interviews with medical experts. A total of 140 diabetes patients- data were used to train the prediction system. A voting mechanism selects the best prediction results from the two techniques used. It has been successfully proven that both data mining and case-based reasoning can be used for retinopathy prediction with an improved accuracy of 85%.

Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, Data Mining, Prediction, Retinopathy.

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Authors: Phoevos K. Koukouvinis, John S. Anagnostopoulos, Dimitris E. Papantonis

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This work is an attempt to use the standard Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics methodology for the simulation of the complex unsteady, free-surface flow in a rotating Turgo impulse water turbine. A comparison of two different geometries was conducted. The SPH method due to its mesh-less nature is capable of capturing the flow features appearing in the turbine, without diffusion at the water/air interface. Furthermore results are compared with a commercial CFD package (Fluent®) and the SPH algorithm proves to be capable of providing similar results, in much less time than the mesh based CFD program. A parametric study was also performed regarding the turbine inlet angle.

Keywords: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics, Mesh-lessmethods, Impulse turbines, Turgo turbine.

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Authors: L. Torchane

Abstract:

The study is devoted to define the optimal conditions for the nitriding of pure iron at atmospheric pressure by using NH3- Ar-C3H8 gas mixtures. After studying the mechanisms of phase formation and mass transfer at the gas-solid interface, a mathematical model is developed in order to predict the nitrogen transfer rate in the solid, the ε-carbonitride layer growth rate and the nitrogen and carbon concentration profiles. In order to validate the model and to show its possibilities, it is compared with thermogravimetric experiments, analyses and metallurgical observations (X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and electron microprobe analysis). Results obtained allow us to demonstrate the sound correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Gaseous Nitrocarburizing, Kinetic Model, Diffusion, Layer Growth Kinetic.

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Authors: Aníbal Rodríguez Fuentes, Juan V. Lorenzo Ginori, Ricardo Grau Ábalo

Abstract:

Identifying protein coding regions in DNA sequences is a basic step in the location of genes. Several approaches based on signal processing tools have been applied to solve this problem, trying to achieve more accurate predictions. This paper presents a new predictor that improves the efficacy of three techniques that use the Fourier Transform to predict coding regions, and that could be computed using an algorithm that reduces the computation load. Some ideas about the combination of the predictor with other methods are discussed. ROC curves are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed predictor, based on the computation of 25 DNA sequences from three different organisms.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Coding region prediction, Computational load reduction, Digital Signal Processing, Fourier Transform.

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Authors: Ikmal Hisyam Mohamad Paris, Lilly Suriani Affendey, Norwati Mustapha

Abstract:

In this paper we compare the accuracy of data mining methods to classifying students in order to predicting student-s class grade. These predictions are more useful for identifying weak students and assisting management to take remedial measures at early stages to produce excellent graduate that will graduate at least with second class upper. Firstly we examine single classifiers accuracy on our data set and choose the best one and then ensembles it with a weak classifier to produce simple voting method. We present results show that combining different classifiers outperformed other single classifiers for predicting student performance.

Keywords: Classification, Data Mining, Prediction, Combination of Multiple Classifiers.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: K. Vakhshouri, M.M. Y. Motamed Hashemi

Abstract:

A rigorous two-dimensional model is developed for simulating the operation of a less-investigated type steam reformer having a considerably lower operating Reynolds number, higher tube diameter, and non-availability of extra steam in the feed compared with conventional steam reformers. Simulation results show that reasonable predictions can only be achieved when certain correlations for wall to fluid heat transfer equations are applied. Due to severe operating conditions, in all cases, strong radial temperature gradients inside the reformer tubes have been found. Furthermore, the results show how a certain catalyst loading profile will affect the operation of the reformer.

Keywords: Steam reforming, direct reduction, heat transfer, two-dimensional model, simulation.

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Authors: Chen-Yuan Chen, Wan-I Lee, Yi-Chaio Sui, Cheng-Wu Chen

Abstract:

This study focuses on the development of triangular fuzzy numbers, the revising of triangular fuzzy numbers, and the constructing of a HCFN (half-circle fuzzy number) model which can be utilized to perform more plural operations. They are further transformed for trigonometric functions and polar coordinates. From half-circle fuzzy numbers we can conceive cylindrical fuzzy numbers, which work better in algebraic operations. An example of fuzzy control is given in a simulation to show the applicability of the proposed half-circle fuzzy numbers.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number, half-circle fuzzy numbers, predictions, polar coordinates, Lyapunov method

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, P. Cioppa, E. Benini

Abstract:

The flow field around a flat plate of infinite span has been investigated for several values of the angle of attack. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to examine the effect of turbulence model and grid resolution on the resultant aerodynamic forces acting on the plate. Also the influence of the free-stream turbulence intensity, at the entrance of the computational domain, has been investigated. A full campaign of simulations has been conducted for three inclination angles (9°, 15° and 30°), in order to obtain some practical guidelines to be used for the simulation of the flow field around inclined plates and discs.

Keywords: CFD, lift, drag, flat plate

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

Abstract:

The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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Authors: Yiping Wang, Zhengqi Gu, Weiping Li, Xiaohui Lin

Abstract:

The aerodynamic noise radiation from a side view mirror (SVM) in the high-speed airflow is calculated by the combination of unsteady incompressible fluid flow analysis and acoustic analysis. The transient flow past the generic SVM is simulated with variable turbulence model, namely DES Detached Eddy Simulation and LES (Large Eddy Simulation). Detailed velocity vectors and contour plots of the time-varying velocity and pressure fields are presented along cut planes in the flow-field. Mean and transient pressure are also monitored at several points in the flow field and compared to corresponding experimentally data published in literature. The acoustic predictions made using the Ffowcs-Williams-Hawkins acoustic analogy (FW-H) and the boundary element (BEM).

Keywords: Aerodynamic noise, BEM, DES, FW-H acousticanalogy, LES

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