Search results for: multidimensional decision analysis.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9711

Search results for: multidimensional decision analysis.

9681 Joint Use of Factor Analysis (FA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for Ranking of Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: Reza Nadimi, Fariborz Jolai

Abstract:

This article combines two techniques: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Factor analysis (FA) to data reduction in decision making units (DMU). Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a popular linear programming technique is useful to rate comparatively operational efficiency of decision making units (DMU) based on their deterministic (not necessarily stochastic) input–output data and factor analysis techniques, have been proposed as data reduction and classification technique, which can be applied in data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique for reduction input – output data. Numerical results reveal that the new approach shows a good consistency in ranking with DEA.

Keywords: Effectiveness, Decision Making, Data EnvelopmentAnalysis, Factor Analysis

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9680 Facility Location Selection using Preference Programming

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents preference programming technique based multiple criteria decision making analysis for selecting a facility location for a new organization or expansion of an existing facility which is of vital importance for a decision support system and strategic planning process. The implementation of decision support systems is considered crucial to sustain competitive advantage and profitability persistence in turbulent environment. As an effective strategic management and decision making is necessary, multiple criteria decision making analysis supports the decision makers to formulate and implement the right strategy. The investment cost associated with acquiring the property and facility construction makes the facility location selection problem a long-term strategic investment decision, which rationalize the best location selection which results in higher economic benefits through increased productivity and optimal distribution network. Selecting the proper facility location from a given set of alternatives is a difficult task, as many potential qualitative and quantitative multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered. This paper solves a facility location selection problem using preference programming, which is an effective multiple criteria decision making analysis tool applied to deal with complex decision problems in the operational research environment. The ranking results of preference programming are compared with WSM, TOPSIS and VIKOR methods.

Keywords: Facility Location Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, Preference Programming, Location Selection, WSM, TOPSIS, VIKOR

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9679 Defect Cause Modeling with Decision Tree and Regression Analysis

Authors: B. Bakır, İ. Batmaz, F. A. Güntürkün, İ. A. İpekçi, G. Köksal, N. E. Özdemirel

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to identify the most influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare used to model the relationship between process parameters and defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for determining the most important process variables.

Keywords: Casting industry, decision tree algorithm C5.0, logistic regression, quality improvement.

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9678 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)

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9677 Regional Aircraft Selection Using Preference Analysis for Reference Ideal Solution (PARIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis process to determine the most suitable regional aircraft type according to a set of evaluation criteria. The main purpose of this study is to use different decision making methods to determine the most suitable regional aircraft for aviation operators. In this context, the nine regional aircraft types were analyzed using multiple criteria decision making analysis methods. Preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) was used in regional aircraft selection process. The findings of the proposed model show that the ranking results of the multiple criteria decision making models are consistent with each other, and the proposed method is efficient, and the results are valid. Finally, the Embraer E195-E2 model regional aircraft is chosen as the most suitable aircraft type.

Keywords: aircraft, regional aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS

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9676 Multilevel Fuzzy Decision Support Model for China-s Urban Rail Transit Planning Schemes

Authors: Jin-Bao Zhao, Wei Deng

Abstract:

This paper aims at developing a multilevel fuzzy decision support model for urban rail transit planning schemes in China under the background that China is presently experiencing an unprecedented construction of urban rail transit. In this study, an appropriate model using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is developed. In the decision process, the followings are considered as the influential objectives: traveler attraction, environment protection, project feasibility and operation. In addition, consistent matrix analysis method is used to determine the weights between objectives and the weights between the objectives- sub-indictors, which reduces the work caused by repeated establishment of the decision matrix on the basis of ensuring the consistency of decision matrix. The application results show that multilevel fuzzy decision model can perfectly deal with the multivariable and multilevel decision process, which is particularly useful in the resolution of multilevel decision-making problem of urban rail transit planning schemes.

Keywords: Urban rail transit, planning schemes, multilevel fuzzy decision support model, consistent matrix analysis

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9675 Decision Support Framework in Managerial Learning Environment for Organization

Authors: M. Mazhar Manzoor, Nasar.A, A. Sattar

Abstract:

In the open space of decision support system the mental impression of a manager-s decision has been the subject of large importance than the ordinary famous one, when helped by decision support system. Much of this study is an attempt to realize the relation of decision support system usage and decision outcomes that governs the system. For example, several researchers have proposed so many different models to analyze the linkage between decision support system processes and results of decision making. This study draws the important relation of manager-s mental approach with the use of decision support system. The findings of this paper are theoretical attempts to provide Decision Support System (DSS) in a way to exhibit and promote the learning in semi structured area. The proposed model shows the points of one-s learning improvements and maintains a theoretical approach in order to explore the DSS contribution in enhancing the decision forming and governing the system.

Keywords: Decision Support System , Learning Organization,

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9674 Freighter Aircraft Selection Using Entropic Programming for Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper proposes entropic programming for the freighter aircraft selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive framework by focusing on the perspective of freighter aircraft selection. In order to achieve this goal, an integrated entropic programming approach was proposed to evaluate and rank alternatives. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the research data analysis. The objective criteria weights were determined by the mean weight method and the standard deviation method. The proposed entropic programming model was applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting freighter aircraft. The proposed entropic programming technique gives robust, reliable, and efficient results in modeling decision making analysis problems. As a result of entropic programming analysis, Boeing B747-8F, a freighter aircraft alternative ( a3), was chosen as the most suitable freighter aircraft candidate.   

Keywords: entropic programming, additive weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, aircraft selection, freighter aircraft, Boeing B747-8F, Boeing B777F, Airbus A350F

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9673 Aircraft Selection Problem Using Decision Uncertainty Distance in Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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9672 Parametric and Nonparametric Analysis of Breast Cancer Treatments

Authors: Chunling Cong, Chris.P.Tsokos

Abstract:

The objective of the present research manuscript is to perform parametric, nonparametric, and decision tree analysis to evaluate two treatments that are being used for breast cancer patients. Our study is based on utilizing real data which was initially used in “Tamoxifen with or without breast irradiation in women of 50 years of age or older with early breast cancer" [1], and the data is supplied to us by N.A. Ibrahim “Decision tree for competing risks survival probability in breast cancer study" [2]. We agree upon certain aspects of our findings with the published results. However, in this manuscript, we focus on relapse time of breast cancer patients instead of survival time and parametric analysis instead of semi-parametric decision tree analysis is applied to provide more precise recommendations of effectiveness of the two treatments with respect to reoccurrence of breast cancer.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer treatments, parametricanalysis, non-parametric analysis

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9671 Empirical and Indian Automotive Equity Portfolio Decision Support

Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

Abstract:

A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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9670 Integrating Security Indifference Curve to Formal Decision Evaluation

Authors: Anon Yantarasri, Yachai Limpiyakorn

Abstract:

Decisions are regularly made during a project or daily life. Some decisions are critical and have a direct impact on project or human success. Formal evaluation is thus required, especially for crucial decisions, to arrive at the optimal solution among alternatives to address issues. According to microeconomic theory, all people-s decisions can be modeled as indifference curves. The proposed approach supports formal analysis and decision by constructing indifference curve model from the previous experts- decision criteria. These knowledge embedded in the system can be reused or help naïve users select alternative solution of the similar problem. Moreover, the method is flexible to cope with unlimited number of factors influencing the decision-making. The preliminary experimental results of the alternative selection are accurately matched with the expert-s decisions.

Keywords: Decision Analysis and Resolution, Indifference Curve, Multi-criteria Decision Making.

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9669 A Bayesian Classification System for Facilitating an Institutional Risk Profile Definition

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining.

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9668 Airline Quality Rating Using PARIS and TOPSIS in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria evaluation analysis for airline quality rating using the preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) approaches. The airline quality rating was developed as an objective method for assessing airline quality on combined multiple performance criteria and the importance weights of criteria. The selected multiple performance criteria were determined as on-time arrivals, mishandled baggage, involuntary denied boardings, and consumer complaints. The multiple criteria decision making analysis results show that the alternative ( a2) airline is the best-rated airline.

Keywords: airline quality rating, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS

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9667 Decision-Making Criteria of PPP Projects: Stakeholder Theoretic Perspective

Authors: Xueqin Shan, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye, Chuanming Wu

Abstract:

Any decision-making is based on certain theory. Taking the public rental housing in Chongqing municipality as an example, this essay states that the stakeholder theory can provide innovative criteria and evaluation methods for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. It gives an analysis of how to choose decision-making criteria for different stakeholders in the PPP model and what measures to take to meet the criteria to form “symbiotic" decision-making mode through contracts and to boost the application of PPP model in large-scale public programs in China.

Keywords: PPP, Stakeholder Theory, Stakeholders, Decision- making Criteria

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9666 Fighter Aircraft Evaluation and Selection Process Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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9665 Easy-Interactive Ordering of the Pareto Optimal Set with Imprecise Weights

Authors: Maria Kalinina, Aron Larsson, Leif Olsson

Abstract:

In the multi objective optimization, in the case when generated set of Pareto optimal solutions is large, occurs the problem to select of the best solution from this set. In this paper, is suggested a method to order of Pareto set. Ordering the Pareto optimal set carried out in conformity with the introduced distance function between each solution and selected reference point, where the reference point may be adjusted to represent the preferences of a decision making agent. Preference information about objective weights from a decision maker may be expressed imprecisely. The developed elicitation procedure provides an opportunity to obtain surrogate numerical weights for the objectives, and thus, to manage impreciseness of preference. The proposed method is a scalable to many objectives and can be used independently or as complementary to the various visualization techniques in the multidimensional case.

Keywords: Imprecise weights, Multiple objectives, Pareto optimality, Visualization.

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9664 A Contribution to the Application of the Structural Analysis Method in Entrepreneurial Practice

Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel

Abstract:

Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.

Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient

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9663 District Selection for Geotechnical Settlement Suitability Using GIS and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis: A Case Study in Denizli, Turkey

Authors: Erdal Akyol, Mutlu Alkan, Ali Aydin

Abstract:

Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria are well evaluated.

Keywords: GIS, spatial analysis, multi criteria decision analysis, geotechnics.

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9662 Scholar Index for Research Performance Evaluation Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper aims to present an objective quantitative methodology on how to evaluate individual’s scholarly research output using multiple criteria decision analysis. A multiple criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA) methodological process is adopted to build a multiple criteria evaluation model. With the introduction of the scholar index, which gives significant information about a researcher's productivity and the scholarly impact of his or her publications in a single number (s is the number of publications with at least s citations); cumulative research citation index; the scholar index is included in the citation databases to cover the multidimensional complexity of scholarly research performance and to undertake objective evaluations with scholar index. The scholar index, one of publication activity indexes, is analyzed by considering it to be the most appropriate sciencemetric indicator which allows to smooth over many drawbacks of scholarly output assessment by mere calculation of the number of publications (quantity) and citations (quality). Hence, this study includes a set of indicators-based scholar index to be used for evaluating scholarly researchers. Google Scholar open science database was used to assess and discuss scholarly productivity and impact of researchers. Based on the experiment of computing the scholar index, and its derivative indexes for a set of researchers on open research database platform, quantitative methods of assessing scholarly research output were successfully considered to rank researchers. The proposed methodology considers the ranking, and the selection of data on which a scholarly research performance evaluation was based, the analysis of the data, and the presentation of the multiple criteria analysis results.

Keywords: Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Research Performance Evaluation, Scholar Index, h index, Science Citation Index, Science Efficiency, Cumulative Citation Index, Sciencemetrics

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9661 A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Methods for Strategic, Tactical, and Operational Decisions in Military Fighter Aircraft Selection

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper considers a comparative analysis of multiple criteria decision making analysis methods for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in military fighter aircraft selection for the air force fleet planning. The evaluation criteria governing the decision analysis process are determined from the literature for the three existing military combat aircraft. Military fighter aircraft selection problem is structured using "preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS)” approach in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDMA). Systematic comparisons were made with existing MCDMA methods (PARIS, and TOPSIS) to verify the stability and accuracy of the results obtained. The proposed integrated MCDMA systematic approach is expected to address the issues encountered in the aircraft selection process. The comparative analysis results show that the proposed method is an effective and accurate tool that can help analysts make better strategic, tactical, and operational decisions.

Keywords: aircraft, military fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS, Saab Gripen, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon

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9660 Digital Transformation as the Subject of the Knowledge Model of the Discursive Space

Authors: Rafal Maciag

Abstract:

Due to the development of the current civilization, one must create suitable models of its pervasive massive phenomena. Such a phenomenon is the digital transformation, which has a substantial number of disciplined, methodical interpretations forming the diversified reflection. This reflection could be understood pragmatically as the current temporal, a local differential state of knowledge. The model of the discursive space is proposed as a model for the analysis and description of this knowledge. Discursive space is understood as an autonomous multidimensional space where separate discourses traverse specific trajectories of what can be presented in multidimensional parallel coordinate system. Discursive space built on the world of facts preserves the complex character of that world. Digital transformation as a discursive space has a relativistic character that means that at the same time, it is created by the dynamic discourses and these discourses are molded by the shape of this space.

Keywords: Knowledge, digital transformation, discourse, discursive space, complexity.

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9659 Decision Support for the Selection of Electric Power Plants Generated from Renewable Sources

Authors: Aumnad Phdungsilp, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

Abstract:

Decision support based upon risk analysis into comparison of the electricity generation from different renewable energy technologies can provide information about their effects on the environment and society. The aim of this paper is to develop the assessment framework regarding risks to health and environment, and the society-s benefits of the electric power plant generation from different renewable sources. The multicriteria framework to multiattribute risk analysis technique and the decision analysis interview technique are applied in order to support the decisionmaking process for the implementing renewable energy projects to the Bangkok case study. Having analyses the local conditions and appropriate technologies, five renewable power plants are postulated as options. As this work demonstrates, the analysis can provide a tool to aid decision-makers for achieving targets related to promote sustainable energy system.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Bangkok, MultiattributeRisk Analysis, Renewable Energy Technology.

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9658 Modeling Uncertainty in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution for the Selection of Stealth Combat Aircraft

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Uncertainty set theory is a generalization of fuzzy set theory and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. It serves as an effective tool for dealing with inconsistent, imprecise, and vague information. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is a multiple-attribute method used to identify solutions from a finite set of alternatives. It simultaneously minimizes the distance from an ideal point and maximizes the distance from a nadir point. In this paper, an extension of the TOPSIS method for multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) based on uncertainty sets is presented. In uncertainty decision analysis, decision-makers express information about attribute values and weights using uncertainty numbers to select the best stealth combat aircraft.

Keywords: Uncertainty set, stealth combat aircraft selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis, MCDM, uncertainty decision analysis, TOPSIS

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9657 Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Turkish Air Force Stealth Fighter Aircraft Selection

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Neutrosophic logic decision analysis is proposed as a method of stealth fighter aircraft selection for Turkish Air Force. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses neutrosophic logic numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in stealth fighter aircraft selection. Neutrosophic logic numbers can consider the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as stealth analysis, survivability analysis, and performance analysis. Neutrosophic logic ranking is achieved using weighted arithmetic operator and weighted geometric operator and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. 

Keywords: Neutrosophic set theory, stealth fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision-making, neutrosophic logic decision making, Turkish Air Force, MCDM

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9656 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: Bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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9655 Advanced Jet Trainer and Light Attack Aircraft Selection Using Composite Programming in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, composite programming is discussed for aircraft evaluation and selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the literature review. The importance of criteria weights was determined by the standard deviation method. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft. The proposed technique gives robust and efficient results in modeling multiple criteria decisions. As a result of composite programming analysis, Hürjet, an advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft alternative (a3), was chosen as the most suitable aircraft candidate.  

Keywords: composite programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection, advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft, M-346, FA-50, Hürjet

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9654 Value–based Group Decision on Support Bridge Selection

Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus

Abstract:

Value-based group decision is very complicated since many parties involved. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Therefore, a support system is required to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. The support system is based on combination between value-based analysis, multi criteria group decision making based on satisfying options, and negotiation process based on coalition formation. This paper presents the group decision and negotiation on the selection of suitable material for a support bridge structure involving three decision makers, who are an estate manager, a project manager, and an engineer. There are three alternative solutions for the material of the support bridge structure, which are (a1) steel structure, (a2) reinforced concrete structure and (a3) wooden structure.

Keywords: Value-based, group decision, negotiation support, construction.

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9653 A Study on the Differences of Academic Achievement, Self-Efficacy, and Engineering Self-Efficacy with Gender of Engineering Students

Authors: Seung hee Kang, Jee-Hong Kim, Ji Seong Jang,

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity of engineering college students by performing correlation analysis. Gender differences in between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity were also examined by T-test. The results T-test revealed gender differences in only career decision efficacy. Male Students scored significantly higher than did female students on career decision efficacy and satisfaction with major. The results of correlation analysis showed a) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career decision efficacy, b) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career attitude maturity, and c) career decision efficacy were significantly associated with career attitude maturity. As a result,we found the importance of satisfaction in engineering college students- major studies when deciding their career.

Keywords: Satisfaction with major, career decision efficacy, career attitude maturity, engineering college student.

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9652 Employing Operations Research at Universities to Build Management Systems

Authors: Abdallah A. Hlayel

Abstract:

Operations research science (OR) deals with good success in developing and applying scientific methods for problem solving and decision-making. However, by using OR techniques, we can enhance the use of computer decision support systems to achieve optimal management for institutions. OR applies comprehensive analysis including all factors that effect on it and builds mathematical modeling to solve business or organizational problems. In addition, it improves decision-making and uses available resources efficiently. The adoption of OR by universities would definitely contributes to the development and enhancement of the performance of OR techniques. This paper provides an understanding of the structures, approaches and models of OR in problem solving and decisionmaking.

Keywords: Best candidates' method, decision making, decision support system, operations research.

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