Search results for: Logistic Regression

Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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Authors: Jonas Mayer, Kai-Frederic Seitz, Thorben Kuprat

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In today’s competitive environment production’s logistic objectives such as ‘delivery reliability’ and ‘delivery time’ and distribution’s logistic objectives such as ‘service level’ and ‘delivery delay’ are attributed great importance. Especially for small and mid-sized enterprises (SME) attaining these objectives pose a key challenge. Within this context, one of the difficulties is that interactions between departments within the enterprise and their specific objectives are insufficiently taken into account and aligned. Interdepartmental independencies along with contradicting targets set within the different departments result in enterprises having sub-optimal logistic performance capability. This paper presents a research project which will systematically describe the interactions between departments and convert them into a quantifiable form.

Keywords: Department-specific actuating and control variables, interdepartmental interactions, cybernetic model, logistic objectives.

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Authors: M. Sitoe, O. Zacarias

Abstract:

University education is influenced by several factors that range from the adoption of strategies to strengthen the whole process to the academic performance improvement of the students themselves. This work uses data mining techniques to develop a predictive model to identify students with a tendency to evasion and retention. To this end, a database of real students’ data from the Department of University Admission (DAU) and the Department of Mathematics and Informatics (DMI) was used. The data comprised 388 undergraduate students admitted in the years 2009 to 2014. The Weka tool was used for model building, using three different techniques, namely: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and logistic regression. To allow for training on multiple train-test splits, a cross-validation approach was employed with a varying number of folds. To reduce bias variance and improve the performance of the models, ensemble methods of Bagging and Stacking were used. After comparing the results obtained by the three classifiers, Logistic Regression using Bagging with seven folds obtained the best performance, showing results above 90% in all evaluated metrics: accuracy, rate of true positives, and precision. Retention is the most common tendency.

Keywords: Evasion and retention, cross validation, bagging, stacking.

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Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang

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A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M₀ development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Keywords: Chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID.

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

Abstract:

According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: Dursun Aydin

Abstract:

This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

Abstract:

A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: Logistic Regression LoR, Kernel Density Estimator KDE, Handwriting, Confidence Interval, Repeatability, Reproducibility.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Huda Yasin, Madiha Yasin, C. Ardil

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In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or  absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), binary logistic regression analyses, myocardial ischemia (MI), principle component analysis, unstable angina (U.A.).

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Authors: Kanthida Kusonmano, Michael Netzer, Bernhard Pfeifer, Christian Baumgartner, Klaus R. Liedl, Armin Graber

Abstract:

Availability of high dimensional biological datasets such as from gene expression, proteomic, and metabolic experiments can be leveraged for the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases. Many classification methods in this area have been studied to predict disease states and separate between predefined classes such as patients with a special disease versus healthy controls. However, most of the existing research only focuses on a specific dataset. There is a lack of generic comparison between classifiers, which might provide a guideline for biologists or bioinformaticians to select the proper algorithm for new datasets. In this study, we compare the performance of popular classifiers, which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, and Random Forest based on mock datasets. We mimic common biological scenarios simulating various proportions of real discriminating biomarkers and different effect sizes thereof. The result shows that SVM performs quite stable and reaches a higher AUC compared to other methods. This may be explained due to the ability of SVM to minimize the probability of error. Moreover, Decision Tree with its good applicability for diagnosis and prognosis shows good performance in our experimental setup. Logistic Regression and Random Forest, however, strongly depend on the ratio of discriminators and perform better when having a higher number of discriminators.

Keywords: Classification, High dimensional data, Machine learning

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Authors: R. Kenova, K. Anguelov, R. Nikolova

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The human factor plays a major role in boosting the competitive capacity of logistic enterprises. This is of particular importance when it comes to logistic companies. On the one hand they should be strictly compliant with legislation; on the other hand, they should be competitive in terms of pricing and of delivery timelines. Moreover, their policies should allow them to be as flexible as possible. All these circumstances are reason for very serious challenges for the qualification, motivation and experience of the human resources, working in logistic companies or in logistic departments of trade and industrial enterprises. The geographic place of Bulgaria puts it in position of a country with some specific competitive advantages in the goods transport from Europe to Asia and back. Along with it, there is a number of logistic companies, that operate in this sphere in Bulgaria. In the current paper, the authors aim to establish the condition of the administrative capacity and human resources in the logistic companies and logistic departments of trade and industrial companies in Bulgaria in order to propose some guidelines for improving of their effectiveness. Due to independent empirical research, conducted in Bulgarian logistic, trade and industrial enterprises, the authors investigate both the impact degree and the interdependence of various factors that characterize the administrative capacity. The study is conducted with a prepared questionnaire, in format of direct interview with the respondents. The volume of the poll is 50 respondents, representatives of: general managers of industrial or trade enterprises; logistic managers of industrial or trade enterprises; general managers of forwarding companies – either with own or with hired transport; experts from Bulgarian association of logistics; logistic lobbyist and scientists of the relevant area. The data are gathered for 3 months, then arranged by a specialized software program and analyzed by preset criteria. Based on the results of this methodological toolbox, it can be claimed that there is a correlation between the individual criteria. Also, a commitment between the administrative capacity and other factors that determine the competitiveness of the studied companies is established. In this paper, the authors present results of the empirical research that concerns the number and the workload in the logistic departments of the enterprises. Also, what is commented is the experience, related to logistic processes management and human resources competence. Moreover, the overload level of the logistic specialists is analyzed as one of the main threats for making mistakes and losing clients. The paper stands behind the thesis that there is indispensability of forming an effective and efficient administrative capacity, based on the number, qualification, experience and motivation of the staff in the logistic companies. The paper ends with recommendations about the qualification and experience of the specialists in logistic departments; providing effective and efficient administrative capacity in the logistic departments; interdependence of the human factor and the other factors that influence the enterprise competitiveness.

Keywords: Administrative capacity, human resources, logistic competitiveness, staff qualification.

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Authors: Rajvir Kaur, Jeewani Anupama Ginige

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With recent trends in Big Data and advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, the healthcare industry is at the stage of its transition from clinician oriented to technology oriented. Many people around the world die of cancer because the diagnosis of disease was not done at an early stage. Nowadays, the computational methods in the form of Machine Learning (ML) are used to develop automated decision support systems that can diagnose cancer with high confidence in a timely manner. This paper aims to carry out the comparative evaluation of a selected set of ML classifiers on two existing datasets: breast cancer and cervical cancer. The ML classifiers compared in this study are Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Logistic Regression, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The evaluation is carried out based on standard evaluation metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), F1-score and Accuracy. The experimental results based on the evaluation metrics show that ANN showed the highest-level accuracy (99.4%) when tested with breast cancer dataset. On the other hand, when these ML classifiers are tested with the cervical cancer dataset, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) technique gave better accuracy (93.1%) in comparison to other classifiers.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, breast cancer, cancer dataset, classifiers, cervical cancer, F-score, logistic regression, machine learning, precision, recall, support vector machine.

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Authors: Mohd Iskandar Illyas Tan, Raziah Noor Razali, Zuhra Junaida Husny

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The purpose of this study is i) to investigate the driving factors and barriers of the adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Halal logistic and ii) to develop an ICT adoption framework for Halal logistic service provider. The Halal LSPs selected for the study currently used ICT service platforms, such as accounting and management system for Halal logistic business. The study categorizes the factors influencing the adoption decision and process by LSPs into four groups: technology related factors, organizational and environmental factors, Halal assurance related factors, and government related factors. The major contribution in this study is the discovery that technology related factors (ICT compatibility with Halal requirement) and Halal assurance related factors are the most crucial factors among the Halal LSPs applying ICT for Halal control in transportation-s operation. Among the government related factors, ICT requirement for monitoring Halal included in Halal Logistic Standard on Transportation (MS2400:2010) are the most influencing factors in the adoption of ICT with the support of the government. In addition, the government related factors are very important in the reducing the main barriers and the creation of the atmosphere of ICT adoption in Halal LSP sector.

Keywords: Information and communication technology (ICT), Halal logistic, Halal transportation, Technology adoption

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Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

Abstract:

Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: Grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression.

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Authors: Johannes Nywlt, Julian Becker, Sebastian Bertsch

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Due to high dynamics in current markets the expectations regarding logistics increase steadily. However, the complexity and variety of products and production make it difficult to understand the interdependencies between logistical objectives and their determining factors. Therefore specific models are needed to meet this challenge. The Logistic Operating Curves Theory is such a model. With its aid the basic correlations between the logistic objectives can be described. Within this model the capacity flexibility represents an important parameter. However, a proper mathematical description for this parameter is still missing. Within this paper such a description will be developed in order to make the Logistic Operating Curves Theory more accurate.

Keywords: Capacity flexibility, Production controlling, Production logistics, Production management.

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Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

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As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Hossein Riazoshams, Midi Habshah, Jr., Mohamad Bakri Adam

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The detection of outliers is very essential because of their responsibility for producing huge interpretative problem in linear as well as in nonlinear regression analysis. Much work has been accomplished on the identification of outlier in linear regression, but not in nonlinear regression. In this article we propose several outlier detection techniques for nonlinear regression. The main idea is to use the linear approximation of a nonlinear model and consider the gradient as the design matrix. Subsequently, the detection techniques are formulated. Six detection measures are developed that combined with three estimation techniques such as the Least-Squares, M and MM-estimators. The study shows that among the six measures, only the studentized residual and Cook Distance which combined with the MM estimator, consistently capable of identifying the correct outliers.

Keywords: Nonlinear Regression, outliers, Gradient, LeastSquare, M-estimate, MM-estimate.

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Authors: Fernanda M. Assef, Maria Teresinha A. Steiner

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The aim of this paper is to compare and discuss better classifier algorithm options for credit risk assessment by applying different Machine Learning techniques. Using records from a Brazilian financial institution, this study uses a database of 5,432 companies that are clients of the bank, where 2,600 clients are classified as non-defaulters, 1,551 are classified as defaulters and 1,281 are temporarily defaulters, meaning that the clients are overdue on their payments for up 180 days. For each case, a total of 15 attributes was considered for a one-against-all assessment using four different techniques: Artificial Neural Networks Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), Artificial Neural Networks Radial Basis Functions (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR) and finally Support Vector Machines (SVM). For each method, different parameters were analyzed in order to obtain different results when the best of each technique was compared. Initially the data were coded in thermometer code (numerical attributes) or dummy coding (for nominal attributes). The methods were then evaluated for each parameter and the best result of each technique was compared in terms of accuracy, false positives, false negatives, true positives and true negatives. This comparison showed that the best method, in terms of accuracy, was ANN-RBF (79.20% for non-defaulter classification, 97.74% for defaulters and 75.37% for the temporarily defaulter classification). However, the best accuracy does not always represent the best technique. For instance, on the classification of temporarily defaulters, this technique, in terms of false positives, was surpassed by SVM, which had the lowest rate (0.07%) of false positive classifications. All these intrinsic details are discussed considering the results found, and an overview of what was presented is shown in the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, classifier algorithms, credit risk assessment, logistic regression, machine learning, support vector machines.

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Authors: Mansoor Momeni, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Ali Faal Ghayoumi, Hoda Ghorbani

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This research is aimed to describe the application of robust regression and its advantages over the least square regression method in analyzing financial data. To do this, relationship between earning per share, book value of equity per share and share price as price model and earning per share, annual change of earning per share and return of stock as return model is discussed using both robust and least square regressions, and finally the outcomes are compared. Comparing the results from the robust regression and the least square regression shows that the former can provide the possibility of a better and more realistic analysis owing to eliminating or reducing the contribution of outliers and influential data. Therefore, robust regression is recommended for getting more precise results in financial data analysis.

Keywords: Financial data analysis, Influential data, Outliers, Robust regression.

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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Authors: Walid S. Abd El-hamid, Sherif S. El-Etriby, Mohiy M. Hadhoud

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Regression testing is a maintenance activity applied to modified software to provide confidence that the changed parts are correct and that the unchanged parts have not been adversely affected by the modifications. Regression test selection techniques reduce the cost of regression testing, by selecting a subset of an existing test suite to use in retesting modified programs. This paper presents the first general regression-test-selection technique, which based on code and allows selecting test cases for any programs written in any programming language. Then it handles incomplete program. We also describe RTSDiff, a regression-test-selection system that implements the proposed technique. The results of the empirical studied that performed in four programming languages java, C#, Cµ and Visual basic show that the efficiency and effective in reducing the size of test suit.

Keywords: Regression testing, testing, test selection, softwareevolution, software maintenance.

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: Dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test.

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming.

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Authors: Sohrab Mahmoodi, Ali Rahimi

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The critical period for weed control (CPWC) is the period in the crop growth cycle during which weeds must be controlled to prevent unacceptable yield losses. Field studies were conducted in 2005 and 2006 in the University of Birjand at the south east of Iran to determine CPWC of corn using a randomized complete block design with 14 treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of two different periods of weed interference, a critical weed-free period and a critical time of weed removal, were imposed at V3, V6, V9, V12, V15, and R1 (based on phonological stages of corn development) with a weedy check and a weed-free check. The CPWC was determined with the use of 2.5, 5, 10, 15 and 20% acceptable yield loss levels by non-linear Regression method and fitting Logistic and Gompertz nonlinear equations to relative yield data. The CPWC of corn was from 5- to 15-leaf stage (19-55 DAE) to prevent yield losses of 5%. This period to prevent yield losses of 2.5, 10 and 20% was 4- to 17-leaf stage (14-59 DAE), 6- to 12-leaf stage (25-47 DAE) and 8- to 9-leaf stage (31-36 DAE) respectively. The height and leaf area index of corn were significantly decreased by weed competition in both weed free and weed infested treatments (P<0.01). Results also showed that there was a significant positive correlation between yield and LAI of corn at silk stage when competing with weeds (r= 0.97).

Keywords: Corn, Critical period, Gompertz, Logistic, Weed control.

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Baoguang Tian, Nan Chen

Abstract:

A new relative efficiency in linear model in reference is instructed into the linear weighted regression, and its upper and lower bound are proposed. In the linear weighted regression model, for the best linear unbiased estimation of mean matrix respect to the least-squares estimation, two new relative efficiencies are given, and their upper and lower bounds are also studied.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Mean matrix, Trace.

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Authors: Michael Grigutsch, Marco Kennemann, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Due to the recovering global economy, enterprises are increasingly focusing on logistics. Investing in logistic measures for a production generates a large potential for achieving a good starting point within a competitive field. Unlike during the global economic crisis, enterprises are now challenged with investing available capital to maximize profits. In order to be able to create an informed and quantifiably comprehensible basis for a decision, enterprises need an adequate model for logistically and monetarily evaluating measures in production. The Collaborate Research Centre 489 (SFB 489) at the Institute for Production Systems (IFA) developed a Logistic Information System which provides support in making decisions and is designed specifically for the forging industry. The aim of a project that has been applied for is to now transfer this process in order to develop a universal approach to logistically and monetarily evaluate measures in production.

Keywords: Measures in Production, Logistic Operating Curves, Transfer Functions, Production Logistics

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