Search results for: Exchange rate volatility

Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic.

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Authors: Seung Yeon Son

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In today’s rapidly changing and increasingly complex environment, organizations have relied on their members’ positive attitude toward their employers. In particular, employees’ organizational commitment (primarily, the affective component) has been recognized as an essential component of organizational functioning and success. Hence, identifying the determinants of affective commitment is one of the most important research issues. This study tested the influence of leader-member exchange (LMX) and exchange ideology on employee’s affective commitment. In addition, the interactive effect of LMX and exchange ideology was examined. Data from 198 members of the Korean military supports each of the hypotheses. Lastly, implications for research and directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: Affective commitment, exchange ideology, leader-member exchange, commitment.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: Dong-Woo Lim, Chang-Jae Chun, Hyung-Myung Kim

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We consider a two-way relay network where two sources exchange information. A relay helps the two sources exchange information using the decode-and-XOR-forward protocol. We investigate the power minimization problem with minimum rate constraints. The system needs two time slots and in each time slot the required rate pair should be achievable. The power consumption is minimized in each time slot and we obtained the closed form solution. The simulation results confirm that the proposed power allocation scheme consumes lower total power than the conventional schemes.

Keywords: Decode-and-XOR-forward, power minimization, two-way relay

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Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

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By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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Authors: Cheng-Chi Lee, Min-Shiang Hwang, Shu-Yin Hsiao

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Network exchange is now widely used. However, it still cannot avoid the problems evolving from network exchange. For example. A buyer may not receive the order even if he/she makes the payment. For another example, the seller possibly get nothing even when the merchandise is sent. Some studies about the fair exchange have proposed protocols for the design of efficiency and exploited the signature property to specify that two parties agree on the exchange. The information about purchased item and price are disclosed in this way. This paper proposes a new fair network payment protocol with off-line trusted third party. The proposed protocol can protect the buyers- purchase message from being traced. In addition, the proposed protocol can meet the proposed requirements. The most significant feature is Non-transfer property we achieved.

Keywords: E-commerce, digital signature, fair exchange, security.

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: Tak-Hyun Kim, Youn-Ku Nam, Myunjoo Lee

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The ionizing radiation of livestock wastewater for the removal of nitrogen and phosphorus was studied in the presence of a natural zeolite. The feasibility of a combined process of zeolite ion exchange and electron beam irradiation of livestock wastewater was also investigated. The removal efficiencies of NH4 +-N, T-N and T-P were significantly enhanced by electron beam irradiation after zeolite ion exchange as a pre-treatment. The presence of silica zeolite accelerated the decomposition rate of livestock wastewater in the electron beam irradiation process. These results indicate that the combined process of zeolite ion exchange and electron beam irradiation has the potential for the treatment of livestock wastewater

Keywords: Zeolite, electron beam, livestock wastewater, ammonia nitrogen, phosphorus.

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Authors: Zeynep İltüzer Samur, Gül Tekin Temur

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Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.

Keywords: Option Pricing, Neural Network, S&P 100 Index, American/European options

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Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo

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This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in ten Asian countries. Furthermore, we examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (2007) and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005), we found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for ten Asian countries.

Keywords: Current account, stock price, foreign exchange rate, country characteristics, bivariate cointegration, bi-directional causal relationships.

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Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Thomas Condra, Kim Sørensen

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Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase, where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc. When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not change significantly using the new approach.

Keywords: CFD, coupling, discrete phase, parcel.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

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This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Berna Ulutas

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Single Minute Exchange of Dies (SMED) mainly focuses on recognition of internal and external activities. It is concerned particularly with transferring internal activities into external ones in as many numbers as possible, by also minimizing the internal ones. The validity of the method and procedures are verified by an application a Styrofoam manufacturing process where setup times are critical for time reduction. Significant time savings have been achieved with minimum investment. Further, the issues related with employer safety and ergonomics principles during die exchange are noted.

Keywords: Die exchange, internal-external set-up, lean manufacturing, single minute die exchange.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

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Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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A dynamic development of financial market is accompanied by the emergence of new products on stock exchanges which give absolutely new possibilities of investing money. Currently, the most innovative financial instruments offered to investors are exchange traded products (ETP). They can be defined as financial instruments whose price depends on the value of the underlying instrument. Thus, they offer investors a possibility of making a profit that results from the change in value of the underlying instrument without having to buy it. Currently, the Warsaw Stock Exchange offers many types of ETPs. They are investment products with full or partial capital protection, products without capital protection as well as leverage products, issued on such underlying instruments as indices, sector indices, commodity indices, prices of energy commodities, precious metals, agricultural produce or prices of shares of domestic and foreign companies. This paper presents the mechanism of functioning of ETP available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the results of the analysis of statistical data on these financial instruments.

Keywords: Exchange traded products, financial market, investment, stock exchange.

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Authors: Yingjeng James Li, Lung-Yu Sung, Andrew S. Lin, Huan-Jyun Ciou

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Durability of Membrane Electrode Assembly for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells was evaluated in both steady state and accelerated decay modes. Steady state mode was carried out at constant current of 800mA/cm2 for 2500 hours using air as cathode feed and pure hydrogen as anode feed. The degradation of the cell voltage was 0.015V after such 2500 hrs operation. The degradation rate was therefore calculated to be 6uV/hr. Continuously Vigorous fluctuation of the cell voltage, which was switched between OCV and 0.2V, was employed for the accelerated decay mode. No obvious change in performance of the MEA was observed after 10000 cycles of such operation.

Keywords: Durability, lifetime, membrane electrode assembly, proton exchange membrane fuel cells.

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Authors: Souleymane Oumtanaga, Falilu Abudul Kadiri

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Internet is without any doubt the fastest and effective mean of communication making it possible to reach a great number of people in the world. It draws its base from exchange points. Indeed exchange points are used to inter-connect various Internet suppliers and operators in order to allow them to exchange traffic and it is with these interconnections that Internet made its great strides. They thus make it possible to limit the traffic delivered via the operators of transits. This limitation allows a significant improvement of the quality of service, a reduction in the latency time just as a reduction of the cost of connection for the final subscriber. Through this article we will show how the installation of an IXP allows an improvement and a diversification of the services just as a reduction of the Internet connection costs.

Keywords: Quality of service, Exchange point, interconnection, Service providers, bandwidth, traffic, routers, routing table.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Halil Fidan

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In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions, the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance, causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the innovations of the REER on the agricultural export and import is not very great and the duration of the effects is short. It displays that REER has an immediate positive effect, after the tenth year it displays smooth results on the agricultural export. Evidence of a vector exists co integration, In short run, REER has smaller effects on export and import, compared to the long-run effects.

Keywords: Agricultural import, agricultural export, autoregressive causality of granger, impulse-response function, long run, short run.

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Authors: Somphoom Sawaengkun

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The purpose of this study was primarily assessing how important economic factors namely: The Thai export price of white rice, the exchange rate, and the world rice consumption affect the overall Thai white rice export, using historical data during the period 1989-2013 from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. The co-integration method, regression analysis, and error correction model were applied to investigate the econometric model. The findings indicated that in the long-run, the world rice consumption, the exchange rate, and the Thai export price of white rice were the important factors affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice respectively, as indicated by their significant coefficients. Meanwhile, the rice export price was an important factor affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice in the short-run. This information is useful in the business, export opportunities, price competitiveness, and policymaker in Thailand.

Keywords: Economic Factors, Rice Export, White Rice.

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, F. Allahyari

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Soil stabilization has been widely used to improve soil strength and durability or to prevent erosion and dust generation. Generally to reduce problems of clayey soils in engineering work and to stabilize these soils additional materials are used. The most common materials are lime, fly ash and cement. Using this materials, although improve soil property , but in some cases due to financial problems and the need to use special equipment are limited .One of the best methods for stabilization clayey soils is neutralization the clay particles. For this purpose we can use ion exchange materials. Ion exchange solution like CBR plus can be used for soil stabilization. One of the most important things in using CBR plus is determination the amount of this solution for various soils with different properties. In this study a laboratory experiment is conduct to evaluate the ion exchange capacity of three soils with various plasticity index (PI) to determine amount or required CBR plus solution for soil stabilization.

Keywords: CBR plus, clayey soils, ion exchange, soil stabilization

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Authors: M. Chomczyńska

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The studies concerned an effect of six variants of ion exchange substrate (nutrient carriers with a different potential impact on pH of soil solution) on vegetation of orchard grass during two different periods (42 and 84 days). In the pot experiment plants were grown on sand (model of degraded soil) and six mixtures of sand and 2% (v/v) additions of particular variants of ion exchange substrate (with pH ranged from 5.5 to 8.0). The study results showed that the addition of the substrate at pH=6.5 caused the highest increase in plant yield after shorter vegetation period whereas the addition of the substrate at pH=5.5 increased dry stem and root biomass of orchard grass after longer vegetation period. Thus, the ion exchange substrate at pH=6.5 can be recommended for restoration of exhausted soils when shorter vegetation period is planned; the ion exchange substrate at pH=5.5 can be used for the same purpose when longer periods of vegetative growth are considered.

Keywords: ion exchanger, ion exchange substrate, soilrestoration

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Authors: Namchul Do, Jihun Cho

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Modeling product configurations needs large amounts of knowledge about technical and marketing restrictions on the product. Previous attempts to automate product configurations concentrate on representations and management of the knowledge for specific domains in fixed and isolated computing environments. Since the knowledge about product configurations is subject to continuous change and hard to express, these attempts often failed to efficiently manage and exchange the knowledge in collaborative product development. In this paper, XML Topic Map (XTM) is introduced to represent and exchange the knowledge about product configurations in collaborative product development. A product configuration model based on XTM along with its merger and inference facilities enables configuration engineers in collaborative product development to manage and exchange their knowledge efficiently. A prototype implementation is also presented to demonstrate the proposed model can be applied to engineering information systems to exchange the product configuration knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge exchange, product configurations, XML topic map.

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Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which, in turn, are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: Valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience.

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Authors: Hae-Soon Ahn, Eun-Jun Yoon

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Three-party password authenticated key exchange (3PAKE) protocols are widely deployed on lots of remote user authentication system due to its simplicity and convenience of maintaining a human-memorable password at client side to achieve secure communication within a hostile network. Recently, an improvement of 3PAKE protocol by processing a built-in data attached to other party for identity authentication to individual data was proposed by some researchers. However, this paper points out that the improved 3PAKE protocol is still vulnerable to undetectable on-line dictionary attack and off-line dictionary attack.

Keywords: Three-party key exchange, 3PAKE, Passwordauthenticated key exchange, Network security, Dictionary attack

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Authors: A. Andreasyan, C. Connors

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The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm-based X509v3 certificates are becoming more popular due to their short public and private key sizes. Moreover, these certificates can be stored in Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with limited resources, using less memory and transmitted in network security protocols, such as Internet Key Exchange (IKE), Transport Layer Security (TLS) and Secure Shell (SSH) with less bandwidth. The proposed method gives another advantage, in that it increases the performance of the above-mentioned protocols in terms of key exchange by saving one scalar multiplication operation.

Keywords: Cryptography, elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, key exchange, network security protocols.

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Authors: H. L. Yim, S. H. Lee, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim

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This study proposes a materials procurement contracts model to which the zero-cost collar option is applied for heading price fluctuation risks in construction.The material contract model based on the collar option that consists of the call option striking zone of the construction company(the buyer) following the materials price increase andthe put option striking zone of the material vendor(the supplier) following a materials price decrease. This study first determined the call option strike price Xc of the construction company by a simple approach: it uses the predicted profit at the project starting point and then determines the strike price of put option Xp that has an identical option value, which completes the zero-cost material contract.The analysis results indicate that the cost saving of the construction company increased as Xc decreased. This was because the critical level of the steel materials price increasewas set at a low level. However, as Xc decreased, Xpof a put option that had an identical option value gradually increased. Cost saving increased as Xc decreased. However, as Xp gradually increased, the risk of loss from a construction company increased as the steel materials price decreased. Meanwhile, cost saving did not occur for the construction company, because of volatility. This result originated in the zero-cost features of the two-way contract of the collar option. In the case of the regular one-way option, the transaction cost had to be subtracted from the cost saving. The transaction cost originated from an option value that fluctuated with the volatility. That is, the cost saving of the one-way option was affected by the volatility. Meanwhile, even though the collar option with zero transaction cost cut the connection between volatility and cost saving, there was a risk of exercising the put option.

Keywords: Construction materials, Supply chain management, Procurement, Payment, Collar option

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Monis Akhlaq, M Noman Jafri, Muzammil A Khan, Baber Aslam

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The Ad Hoc on demand distance vector (AODV) routing protocol is designed for mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). AODV offers quick adaptation to dynamic link conditions; it is characterized by low memory overhead and low network utilization. The security issues related to the protocol remain challenging for the wireless network designers. Numerous schemes have been proposed for establishing secure communication between end users, these schemes identify that the secure operation of AODV is a bi tier task (routing and secure exchange of information at separate levels). Our endeavor in this paper would focus on achieving the routing and secure data exchange in a single step. This will facilitate the user nodes to perform routing, mutual authentications, generation and secure exchange of session key in one step thus ensuring confidentiality, integrity and authentication of data exchange in a more suitable way.

Keywords: AODV, key management, security, wirelessnetworks.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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