Search results for: Mitigation Measures.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 988

Search results for: Mitigation Measures.

448 Automatic Inspection of Percussion Caps by Means of Combined 2D and 3D Machine Vision Techniques

Authors: A. Tellaeche, R. Arana, I.Maurtua

Abstract:

The exhaustive quality control is becoming more and more important when commercializing competitive products in the world's globalized market. Taken this affirmation as an undeniable truth, it becomes critical in certain sector markets that need to offer the highest restrictions in quality terms. One of these examples is the percussion cap mass production, a critical element assembled in firearm ammunition. These elements, built in great quantities at a very high speed, must achieve a minimum tolerance deviation in their fabrication, due to their vital importance in firing the piece of ammunition where they are built in. This paper outlines a machine vision development for the 100% inspection of percussion caps obtaining data from 2D and 3D simultaneous images. The acquisition speed and precision of these images from a metallic reflective piece as a percussion cap, the accuracy of the measures taken from these images and the multiple fabrication errors detected make the main findings of this work.

Keywords: critical tolerance, high speed decision makingsimultaneous 2D/3D machine vision.

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447 Measurement and Estimation of Evaporation from Water Surfaces: Application to Dams in Arid and Semi Arid Areas in Algeria

Authors: Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

Abstract:

Many methods exist for either measuring or estimating evaporation from free water surfaces. Evaporation pans provide one of the simplest, inexpensive, and most widely used methods of estimating evaporative losses. In this study, the rate of evaporation starting from a water surface was calculated by modeling with application to dams in wet, arid and semi arid areas in Algeria. We calculate the evaporation rate from the pan using the energy budget equation, which offers the advantage of an ease of use, but our results do not agree completely with the measurements taken by the National Agency of areas carried out using dams located in areas of different climates. For that, we develop a mathematical model to simulate evaporation. This simulation uses an energy budget on the level of a vat of measurement and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (Fluent). Our calculation of evaporation rate is compared then by the two methods and with the measures of areas in situ.

Keywords: Evaporation, Energy budget, Surface water temperature, CFD, Dams

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446 Estimation of the Spent Fuel Pool Water Temperature at a Loss-of-Pool-Cooling Accident

Authors: Chan Hee Park, Arim Lee, Jung Min Lee, Joo Hyun Moon

Abstract:

Accident in spent fuel pool (SFP) of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 showed the importance of continuous monitoring of the key environmental parameters such as water temperature, water level, and radiation level in the SFP at accident conditions. Because the SFP water temperature is one of the key parameters indicating SFP conditions, its behavior at accident conditions shall be understood to prepare appropriate measures. This study estimated temporal change in the SFP water temperature at Kori Unit 1 with 587 MWe for 1 hour after initiation of a loss-of-pool-cooling accident. For the estimation, ANSYS CFX 13.0 code was used. The estimation showed that the increasing rate of the water temperature was 3.90C per hour and the SFP water temperature could reach 1000C in 25.6 hours after the initiation of loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

Keywords: Spent fuel pool, water temperature, Kori Unit 1, a loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

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445 The Economic Cost of Health and Safety in Work Places: An Approach on the Costs Calculating Model

Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari

Abstract:

One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.

Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.

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444 Developing Damage Assessment Model for Bridge Surroundings: A Study of Disaster by Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Authors: Jieh-Haur Chen, Pei-Fen Huang

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated model that automatically measures the change of rivers, damage area of bridge surroundings, and change of vegetation. The proposed model is on the basis of a neurofuzzy mechanism enhanced by SOM optimization algorithm, and also includes three functions to deal with river imagery. High resolution imagery from FORMOSAT-2 satellite taken before and after the invasion period is adopted. By randomly selecting a bridge out of 129 destroyed bridges, the recognition results show that the average width has increased 66%. The ruined segment of the bridge is located exactly at the most scour region. The vegetation coverage has also reduced to nearly 90% of the original. The results yielded from the proposed model demonstrate a pinpoint accuracy rate at 99.94%. This study brings up a successful tool not only for large-scale damage assessment but for precise measurement to disasters.

Keywords: remote sensing image, damage assessment, typhoon disaster, bridge, ANN, fuzzy, SOM, optimization.

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443 Towards a Security Model against Denial of Service Attacks for SIP Traffic

Authors: Arellano Karina, Diego Avila-Pesántez, Leticia Vaca-Cárdenas, Alberto Arellano, Carmen Mantilla

Abstract:

Nowadays, security threats in Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are an essential and latent concern for people in charge of security in a corporate network, because, every day, new Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks are developed. These affect the business continuity of an organization, regarding confidentiality, availability, and integrity of services, causing frequent losses of both information and money. The purpose of this study is to establish the necessary measures to mitigate DoS threats, which affect the availability of VoIP systems, based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). A Security Model called MS-DoS-SIP is proposed, which is based on two approaches. The first one analyzes the recommendations of international security standards. The second approach takes into account weaknesses and threats. The implementation of this model in a VoIP simulated system allowed to minimize the present vulnerabilities in 92% and increase the availability time of the VoIP service into an organization.

Keywords: Denial-of-service SIP attacks, MS-DoS-SIP, security model, VoIP-SIP vulnerabilities.

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442 Analysis and Prediction of the Behavior of the Landslide at Ain El Hammam, Algeria Based on the Second Order Work Criterion

Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

Abstract:

The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: Landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers.

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441 A New Concept for Deriving the Expected Value of Fuzzy Random Variables

Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

Abstract:

Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy random variables, Distance measure, Expected value.

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440 Legal Basis for Water Resources Management in Brazil: Case Study of the Rio Grande Basin

Authors: Janaína F. Guidolini, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Angélica Giarolla, Peter M. Toledo, Carlos A. Valera

Abstract:

The water crisis, a major problem of the 21st century, occurs mainly due to poor management. The central issue that should govern the management is the integration of the various aspects that interfere with the use of water resources and their protection, supported by legal basis. A watershed is a unit of water interacting with the physical, biotic, social, economic and cultural variables. The Brazilian law recognized river basin as the territorial management unit. Based on the diagnosis of the current situation of the water resources of the Rio Grande Basin, a discussion informed in the Brazilian legal basis was made to propose measures to fight or mitigate damages and environmental degradation in the Basin. To manage water resources more efficiently, conserve water and optimize their multiple uses, the integration of acquired scientific knowledge and management is essential. Moreover, it is necessary to monitor compliance with environmental legislation.

Keywords: Conservation of soil and water, river basin, sustainability, water governance.

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439 Development of a Weed Suppression Robot for Rice Cultivation: Weed Suppression and Posture Control

Authors: Shohei Nakai, Yasuhiro Yamada

Abstract:

Weed suppression and weeding are necessary measures for rice cultivation. Weed suppression precedes the process of weeding. It means suppressing the growth of young weeds and creating a weed-less environment. If we suppress the growth of weeds, we can reduce the number of weeds in a paddy field. This would result in a reduction of the weeding work load. In this paper, we will show how we developed a weed suppression robot for the purpose of reducing the weeding work load. The robot has a laser range finder for autonomous mobility and a robot arm for weed suppression. It travels along the rice rows without stepping on and injuring the rice plants in a paddy field. The robot arm applies force to the weed seedlings and thereby suppresses the growth of weeds. This paper will explain the methodology of the autonomous mobile, the experiment in weed suppression, and the method of controlling the robot’s posture on uneven ground.

Keywords: Mobile robot, Paddy field, Robot arm, Weed.

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438 Design, Implementation and Testing of Mobile Agent Protection Mechanism for MANETS

Authors: Khaled E. A. Negm

Abstract:

In the current research, we present an operation framework and protection mechanism to facilitate secure environment to protect mobile agents against tampering. The system depends on the presence of an authentication authority. The advantage of the proposed system is that security measures is an integral part of the design, thus common security retrofitting problems do not arise. This is due to the presence of AlGamal encryption mechanism to protect its confidential content and any collected data by the agent from the visited host . So that eavesdropping on information from the agent is no longer possible to reveal any confidential information. Also the inherent security constraints within the framework allow the system to operate as an intrusion detection system for any mobile agent environment. The mechanism is tested for most of the well known severe attacks against agents and networked systems. The scheme proved a promising performance that makes it very much recommended for the types of transactions that needs highly secure environments, e. g., business to business.

Keywords: Mobile agent security, mobile accesses, agent encryption.

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437 Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures and Their Consequences

Authors: Aleksandra Nocoń (Szunke)

Abstract:

The study is a review of the literature concerning the consequences of non-standard monetary policy, which are used by central banks during unconventional periods, threatening banking sector instability. In particular, the attention was paid to the effects of non-standard monetary policy tools for financial markets. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for financial markets is still not final. The main aim of the study is to survey consequences of standard and non-standard monetary policy instruments, implemented during the global financial crisis in the United States, United Kingdom and euro area, with particular attention to the results for the stabilization of global financial markets. The study consists mainly of the empirical review, indicating the impact of the implementation of these tools for financial markets. The following research methods were used in the study: literature studies, including domestic and foreign literature, cause and effect analysis and statistical analysis.

Keywords: Asset purchase facility, consequences of monetary policy instruments, non-standard monetary policy, Quantitative Easing.

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436 Fairness in Tech-Driven Assessment: Strategies to Safeguard Academic Integrity and Security in Virtual Environment

Authors: B. Ferdousi, J. Bari

Abstract:

Advanced technology can provide vital tools to promote authentic, meaningful, and efficient assessments that measure students' achievement of learning objectives in higher education. However, it also brings several challenges in the learning process. This literature review-based paper describes the challenges in ensuring academic integrity and cybersecurity when students' knowledge and performance are assessed in a digital environment. The paper also reviews the strategies that can be implemented to address these challenges. Using students' authentication and authorship verification of their classwork, designing and developing e-assessments, technology accessibility and instructor training are probable solutions to address these challenges. Given the increasing adoption of digital technology in assessing students' effective learning achievement, this paper will help enhance knowledge and in-depth understanding of measures needed in using technology in academic assessment.

Keywords: Fairness, cybersecurity, e-authentication, academic integrity, e-assessment.

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435 The Effect of Closed Circuit Television Image Patch Layout on Performance of a Simulated Train-Platform Departure Task

Authors: Aaron J. Small, Craig A. Fletcher

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of closed circuit television (CCTV) image patch layout on performance of a simulated train-platform departure task. The within-subjects experimental design measures target detection rate and response latency during a CCTV visual search task conducted as part of the procedure for safe train dispatch. Three interface designs were developed by manipulating CCTV image patch layout. Eye movements, perceived workload and system usability were measured across experimental conditions. Task performance was compared to identify significant differences between conditions. The results of this study have not been determined.

Keywords: Rail human factors, workload, closed circuit television, platform departure, attention, information processing, interface design.

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434 Analysis of Impact of Land Use Regulations against Urban Spatial Structure - Centering around Shiheung City

Authors: Chang-il Kang, Yoon-Hong Park, Tae-Hyun Kim, Yu Wann

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyzed the pattern of urban spatial structure of Siheung City that had been divided into two parts and presented alternative plans in order to get rid of these phenomena. Concerning patterns of urban spatial structure, we examined it through means of analyzing status of land use, population density and distribution of residence, status of distribution of main facilities, medical facilities, status of distribution of cultural facilities, distribution of land prices and traffic volume trends. The results of study revealed that status of facilities distribution and distribution of land prices, etc. were bisected by the surrounding area of former municipal office and the district of Sihwa, which were both regarded as one apex of the city divide, forming a duo-centric city. In order to get rid of this problem concerned with urban spatial structure that has been bisected, it is required that measures in order to expand facilities in Siheung City should be taken.

Keywords: Urban Spatial Structure, Duo-centric City, Siheung City.

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433 Installation Stability of Low Temperature Steel Mesh in LNG Storage

Authors: Rui Yu, Huiqing Ying

Abstract:

To enhance installation security, a LNG storage in Rudong of Jiangsu province was adopted as a practical work, and it was analyzed by nonlinear finite element method to research overall and local stability performance, as well as the stress and deformation under the action of wind load and self-weight. Results indicate that deformation is tiny when steel mesh maintains as an overall ring, and stress caused by vertical bending moment and tension of bottom tie wire are also in the safe range. However, axial forces of lap reinforcement in adjacent steel mesh exceed the ultimate bearing capacity of tie wire. Hence, tie wires are ruptured; single mesh loses lateral connection and turns into monolithic status as the destruction of overall structure. Further more, monolithic steel mesh is led to collapse by the damage of bottom connection. So, in order to prevent connection failure and enhance installation security, the overlapping parts of steel mesh should be taken more reliable measures.

Keywords: low temperature steel mesh, installation stability, nonlinear finite element, tie wire.

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432 Definition of Foot Size Model using Kohonen Network

Authors: Khawla Ben Abderrahim

Abstract:

In order to define a new model of Tunisian foot sizes and for building the most comfortable shoes, Tunisian industrialists must be able to offer for their customers products able to put on and adjust the majority of the target population concerned. Moreover, the use of models of shoes, mainly from others country, causes a mismatch between the foot and comfort of the Tunisian shoes. But every foot is unique; these models become uncomfortable for the Tunisian foot. We have a set of measures produced from a 3D scan of the feet of a diverse population (women, men ...) and we try to analyze this data to define a model of foot specific to the Tunisian footwear design. In this paper we propose tow new approaches to modeling a new foot sizes model. We used, indeed, the neural networks, and specially the Kohonen network. Next, we combine neural networks with the concept of half-foot size to improve the models already found. Finally, it was necessary to compare the results obtained by applying each approach and we decide what-s the best approach that give us the most model of foot improving more comfortable shoes.

Keywords: Morphology of the foot, foot size, half foot size, neural network, Kohonen network, model of foot size.

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431 The Role of Business Survey Measures in Forecasting Croatian Industrial Production

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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430 A Conceptual Framework on Review of E-Service Quality in Banking Industry

Authors: Vivek Agrawal, Vikas Tripathi, Nitin Seth

Abstract:

E-service quality plays a significant role to achieve success or failure in any organization, offering services online. It will increase the competition among the organizations, to attract the customers on the basis of the quality of service provided by the organization. Better e-service quality will enhance the relationship with customers and their satisfaction. So the measurement of eservice quality is very important but it is a complex process due to the complex nature of services. Literature predicts that there is a lack of universal definition of e-service quality. The e-service quality measures in banking have great importance in achieving high customer base. This paper proposes a conceptual model for measuring e-service quality in Indian Banking Industry. Nine dimensions reliability, ease of use, personalization, security and trust, website aesthetic, responsiveness, contact and fulfillment had been identified. The results of this paper may help to develop a proper scale to measure the e-service quality in Indian Banking Industry, which may assist to maintain and improve the performance and effectiveness of e-service quality to retain customers.

Keywords: Banking, Service Quality, e-service quality, Dimensions.

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429 Simulation of Agri-Food Supply Chains

Authors: Sherine Beshara, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Noha M. Galal

Abstract:

Supply chain management has become more challenging with the emerging trend of globalization and sustainability. Lately, research related to perishable products supply chains, in particular agricultural food products, has emerged. This is attributed to the additional complexity of managing this type of supply chains with the recently increased concern of public health, food quality, food safety, demand and price variability, and the limited lifetime of these products. Inventory management for agrifood supply chains is of vital importance due to the product perishability and customers- strive for quality. This paper concentrates on developing a simulation model of a real life case study of a two echelon production-distribution system for agri-food products. The objective is to improve a set of performance measures by developing a simulation model that helps in evaluating and analysing the performance of these supply chains. Simulation results showed that it can help in improving overall system performance.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chains, inventory model, modelling and Simulation, supply chain.

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428 Modeling and Analysis of an SIRS Epidemic Model with Effect of Awareness Programs by Media

Authors: Navjot Kaur, Mini Ghosh, S.S. Bhatia

Abstract:

This paper proposes and analyzes an SIRS epidemic model incorporating the effects of the awareness programs driven by the media. Media and media driven awareness programs play a promising role in disseminating the information about outbreak of any disease across the globe. This motivates people to take precautionary measures and guides the infected individuals to get hospitalized. Timely hospitalization helps to reduce diagnostic delays and hence results in fast recovery of infected individuals. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the media on the spread and control of infectious diseases. This model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. The sensitivity of parameters has been discussed and it has been found that the awareness programs driven by the media have positive impact in reducing the infection prevalence of the infective population in the region under consideration.

Keywords: Infectious diseases, SIRS model, Media, Stability theory, Simulation.

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427 Adaptive Noise Reduction Algorithm for Speech Enhancement

Authors: M. Kalamani, S. Valarmathy, M. Krishnamoorthi

Abstract:

In this paper, Least Mean Square (LMS) adaptive noise reduction algorithm is proposed to enhance the speech signal from the noisy speech. In this, the speech signal is enhanced by varying the step size as the function of the input signal. Objective and subjective measures are made under various noises for the proposed and existing algorithms. From the experimental results, it is seen that the proposed LMS adaptive noise reduction algorithm reduces Mean square Error (MSE) and Log Spectral Distance (LSD) as compared to that of the earlier methods under various noise conditions with different input SNR levels. In addition, the proposed algorithm increases the Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Segmental SNR improvement (ΔSNRseg) values; improves the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) as compared to that of the various existing LMS adaptive noise reduction algorithms. From these experimental results, it is observed that the proposed LMS adaptive noise reduction algorithm reduces the speech distortion and residual noise as compared to that of the existing methods.

Keywords: LMS, speech enhancement, speech quality, residual noise.

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426 The Linkage of Urban and Energy Planning for Sustainable Cities: The Case of Denmark and Germany

Authors: Jens-Phillip Petersen

Abstract:

The reduction of GHG emissions in buildings is a focus area of national energy policies in Europe, because buildings are responsible for a major share of the final energy consumption. It is at local scale where policies to increase the share of renewable energies and energy efficiency measures get implemented. Municipalities, as local authorities and responsible entity for land-use planning, have a direct influence on urban patterns and energy use, which makes them key actors in the transition towards sustainable cities. Hence, synchronizing urban planning with energy planning offers great potential to increase society’s energy-efficiency; this has a high significance to reach GHG-reduction targets. In this paper, the actual linkage of urban planning and energy planning in Denmark and Germany was assessed; substantive barriers preventing their integration and driving factors that lead to successful transitions towards a holistic urban energy planning procedures were identified.

Keywords: Energy planning, urban planning, renewable energies, sustainable cities.

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425 Natural Emergence of a Core Structure in Networks via Clique Percolation

Authors: A. Melka, N. Slater, A. Mualem, Y. Louzoun

Abstract:

Networks are often presented as containing a “core” and a “periphery.” The existence of a core suggests that some vertices are central and form the skeleton of the network, to which all other vertices are connected. An alternative view of graphs is through communities. Multiple measures have been proposed for dense communities in graphs, the most classical being k-cliques, k-cores, and k-plexes, all presenting groups of tightly connected vertices. We here show that the edge number thresholds for such communities to emerge and for their percolation into a single dense connectivity component are very close, in all networks studied. These percolating cliques produce a natural core and periphery structure. This result is generic and is tested in configuration models and in real-world networks. This is also true for k-cores and k-plexes. Thus, the emergence of this connectedness among communities leading to a core is not dependent on some specific mechanism but a direct result of the natural percolation of dense communities.

Keywords: Networks, cliques, percolation, core structure, phase transition.

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424 A Fuzzy Swarm Optimized Approach for Piece Selection in Bit Torrent Like Peer to Peer Network

Authors: M. Padmavathi, R. M. Suresh

Abstract:

Every machine plays roles of client and server simultaneously in a peer-to-peer (P2P) network. Though a P2P network has many advantages over traditional client-server models regarding efficiency and fault-tolerance, it also faces additional security threats. Users/IT administrators should be aware of risks from malicious code propagation, downloaded content legality, and P2P software’s vulnerabilities. Security and preventative measures are a must to protect networks from potential sensitive information leakage and security breaches. Bit Torrent is a popular and scalable P2P file distribution mechanism which successfully distributes large files quickly and efficiently without problems for origin server. Bit Torrent achieved excellent upload utilization according to measurement studies, but it also raised many questions as regards utilization in settings, than those measuring, fairness, and Bit Torrent’s mechanisms choice. This work proposed a block selection technique using Fuzzy ACO with optimal rules selected using ACO.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Bit Torrent, Download time, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network, Performance.

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423 Forecasting e-Learning Efficiency by Using Artificial Neural Networks and a Balanced Score Card

Authors: Petar Halachev

Abstract:

Forecasting the values of the indicators, which characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.

Keywords: artificial neural network, balanced scorecard, e-learning

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422 Class Outliers Mining: Distance-Based Approach

Authors: Nabil M. Hewahi, Motaz K. Saad

Abstract:

In large datasets, identifying exceptional or rare cases with respect to a group of similar cases is considered very significant problem. The traditional problem (Outlier Mining) is to find exception or rare cases in a dataset irrespective of the class label of these cases, they are considered rare events with respect to the whole dataset. In this research, we pose the problem that is Class Outliers Mining and a method to find out those outliers. The general definition of this problem is “given a set of observations with class labels, find those that arouse suspicions, taking into account the class labels". We introduce a novel definition of Outlier that is Class Outlier, and propose the Class Outlier Factor (COF) which measures the degree of being a Class Outlier for a data object. Our work includes a proposal of a new algorithm towards mining of the Class Outliers, presenting experimental results applied on various domains of real world datasets and finally a comparison study with other related methods is performed.

Keywords: Class Outliers, Distance-Based Approach, Outliers Mining.

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421 Health and Greenhouse Gas Emission Implications of Reducing Meat Intakes in Hong Kong

Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

Abstract:

High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: Burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption.

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420 Application of Sensory Thermography as Measuring Method to Study Median Nerve Temperatures

Authors: Javier Ordorica Villalvazo, Claudia Camargo Wilson, Jesus Everardo Olguin Tiznado

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental case using sensory thermography to describe temperatures behavior on median nerve once an activity of repetitive motion was done. Thermography is a noninvasive technique without biological hazard and not harm at all times and has been applied in many experiments to seek for temperature patterns that help to understand diseases like cancer and cumulative trauma disorders (CTD’s). An infrared sensory thermography technology was developed to execute this study. Three women in good shape were selected for the repetitive motion tests for 4 days, two right-handed women and 1 left handed woman, two sensory thermographers were put on both median nerve wrists to get measures. The evaluation time was of 3 hours 30 minutes in a controlled temperature, 20 minutes of stabilization time at the beginning and end of the operation. Temperatures distributions are statistically evaluated and showed similar temperature patterns behavior.

Keywords: Median nerve, temperature, sensory thermography, wrists, CTD’s.

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419 Learning Objects Content Presentation Adaptation Model Considering Students' Learning Styles

Authors: Zenaide Carvalho da Silva, Andrey Ricardo Pimentel, Leandro Rodrigues Ferreira

Abstract:

Learning styles (LSs) correspond to the individual preferences of a person regarding the modes and forms in which he/she prefers to learn throughout the teaching/learning process. The content presentation of learning objects (LOs) using knowledge about the students’ LSs offers them digital educational resources tailored to their individual learning preferences. In this context, the most relevant characteristics of the LSs along with the most appropriate forms of LOs' content presentation were mapped and associated. Such was performed in order to define the composition of an adaptive model of LO's content presentation considering the LSs, which was called Adaptation of Content Presentation of Learning Objects Considering Learning Styles (ACPLOLS). LO prototypes were created with interfaces that were adapted to students' LSs. These prototypes were based on a model created for validation of the approaches that were used, which were established through experiments with the students. The results of subjective measures of students' emotional responses demonstrated that the ACPLOLS has reached the desired results in relation to the adequacy of the LOs interface, in accordance with the Felder-Silverman LSs Model.

Keywords: Adaptation, interface, learning styles, learning objects, students.

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