Search results for: cloud service models and deciding factors.

Authors: Ö.F. Ursavas, H. Karal

Abstract:

In this study it is aimed to determine the level of preservice teachers- computer phobia. Whether or not computer phobia meaningfully varies statistically according to gender and computer experience has been tested in the study. The study was performed on 430 pre-service teachers at the Education Faculty in Rize/Turkey. Data in the study were collected through the Computer Phobia Scale consisting of the “Personal Knowledge Questionnaire", “Computer Anxiety Rating Scale", and “Computer Thought Survey". In this study, data were analyzed with statistical processes such as t test, and correlation analysis. According to results of statistical analyses, computer phobia of male pre-service teachers does not statistically vary depending on their gender. Although male preservice teachers have higher computer anxiety scores, they have lower computer thought scores. It was also observed that there is a negative and intensive relation between computer experience and computer anxiety. Meanwhile it was found out that pre-service teachers using computer regularly indicated lower computer anxiety. Obtained results were tried to be discussed in terms of the number of computer classes in the Education Faculty curriculum, hours of computer class and the computer availability of student teachers.

Keywords: Computer phobia, computer anxiety, computer thought, pre-service teachers.

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Authors: A. Javed, K. Djidjeli, J. T. Xing, S. J. Cox

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A method for simulating flow around the solid bodies has been presented using hybrid meshfree and mesh-based schemes. The presented scheme optimizes the computational efficiency by combining the advantages of both meshfree and mesh-based methods. In this approach, a cloud of meshfree nodes has been used in the domain around the solid body. These meshfree nodes have the ability to efficiently adapt to complex geometrical shapes. In the rest of the domain, conventional Cartesian grid has been used beyond the meshfree cloud. Complex geometrical shapes can therefore be dealt efficiently by using meshfree nodal cloud and computational efficiency is maintained through the use of conventional mesh-based scheme on Cartesian grid in the larger part of the domain. Spatial discretization of meshfree nodes has been achieved through local radial basis functions in finite difference mode (RBF-FD). Conventional finite difference scheme has been used in the Cartesian ‘meshed’ domain. Accuracy tests of the hybrid scheme have been conducted to establish the order of accuracy. Numerical tests have been performed by simulating two dimensional steady and unsteady incompressible flows around cylindrical object. Steady flow cases have been run at Reynolds numbers of 10, 20 and 40 and unsteady flow problems have been studied at Reynolds numbers of 100 and 200. Flow Parameters including lift, drag, vortex shedding, and vorticity contours are calculated. Numerical results have been found to be in good agreement with computational and experimental results available in the literature.

Keywords: CFD, Meshfree particle methods, Hybrid grid, Incompressible Navier Strokes equations, RBF-FD.

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Authors: Abdeljalil Métioui

Abstract:

This article identifies the conceptual representations of 128 students enrolled in elementary pre-service teachers’ education in the Province of Quebec, Canada (ages 19-24). To construct their conceptual representations relatively to notions of heat and temperature, we use a qualitative research approach. For that, we distributed them a questionnaire including four questions. The result demonstrates that these students tend to view the temperature as a measure of the hotness of an object or person. They also related the sensation of cold (or warm) to the difference in temperature, and for their majority, the physical change of the matter does not require a constant temperature. These representations are inaccurate relatively to the scientific views, and we will see that they are relevant to the design of teaching strategies based on conceptual conflict.

Keywords: Conceptual representations, heat, temperature, pre-service teachers, elementary school.

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Authors: Hao-Hsiang Ku, Ching-Ho Chi

Abstract:

Big data applications have become an imperative for many fields. Many researchers have been devoted into increasing correct rates and reducing time complexities. Hence, the study designs and proposes an Ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy for NoSQL big data applications, which is called ON4NoSQL. ON4NoSQL is responsible for enhancing the performances of classifications in NoSQL and SQL databases to build up mass behavior models. Mass behavior models are made by MapReduce techniques and Hadoop distributed file system based on Hadoop service platform. The reference engine of ON4NoSQL is the ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy. Simulation results indicate that ON4NoSQL can efficiently achieve to construct a high performance environment for data storing, searching, and retrieving.

Keywords: Hadoop, NoSQL, ontology, backpropagation neural network, and high distributed file system.

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Authors: G. Lingam, N. Lingam, K. Raghuwaiya

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The reported study focuses on pre-service teachers’ professional development during the teaching practice. The cohort studied comprised participants in their final year in the Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science with Graduate Certificate in Education programmes of a university in Fiji. Analysis of the data obtained using a survey questionnaire indicates that overall, the pre-service teachers were satisfied with the practicum experience. This is assumed to demonstrate that the practicum experience contributed well towards their professional preparation for work expected of them in Fiji secondary schools. Participants also identified some concerns as needing attention. To conclude, the paper provides suggestions for improving the preparation of teachers by strengthening the identified areas of the practicum offered by the university. The study has implications for other teacher education providers in small developing island states and even beyond for the purpose of enhancing learning in student teachers’ for future work.

Keywords: Pre-service, teacher education, practicum, teachers’ world of work, student teachers.

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Authors: Liliana Mâţă

Abstract:

The focus of the study is to understand the factors of curriculum innovation from the perspective of Language teacher education. The overall aim of the study is to investigate Language educators- perceptions of factors of curriculum innovation. In the theoretical framework the main focus is on discussion about different curriculum approaches for language teacher education and limiting and facilitating factors of innovation. In order to achieve the aim of the study, an observational research is employed. The empirical basis of the study consists of questionnaire with sixty-three language teachers from eight Romanian higher education institutions. The findings reveal variation in Language teachers- conceptions of the dominant factors of curricular innovation.

Keywords: curriculum innovation, factors, Language teacher education

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Authors: Pinaki Pratim Acharjya, Dibyendu Ghoshal

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Image matching methods play a key role in deciding correspondence between two image scenes. This paper presents a method for the matching of digital images using mathematical morphology. The proposed method has been applied to real life images. The matching process has shown successful and promising results.

Keywords: Digital image, gradients, image matching, mathematical morphology.

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Authors: Ehab N. Alkhanak, Salimah Mokhtar

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The main aim of this paper is to present the research findings on the solution of centralized Web-Services for students by adopting a framework and a prototype for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Web-Services. The current situation of students- Web-based application services has been identified and proposed an effective SOA to increase the operational efficiency of Web-Services for them it was necessary to identify the challenges in delivering a SOA technology to increase operational efficiency of Web-Services. Moreover, the SOA is an emerging concept, used for delivering efficient student SOA Web-Services. Therefore, service reusability from SOA Web-Services is provided and logically divided services into smaller services to increase reusability and modularity. In this case each service is a modular unit by itself and interoperability services.

Keywords: Services Oriented Architecture (SOA), Web-based Application services, and Web-Services.

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Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.

Keywords: Crash severity, structural equation modeling, truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway.

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Authors: Vivek V, Hafeez Syed, Darren W Terrell, Harit Naik, Halliburton

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Applying a rigorous process to optimize the elements of a supply-chain network resulted in reduction of the waiting time for a service provider and customer. Different sources of downtime of hydraulic pressure controller/calibrator (HPC) were causing interruptions in the operations. The process examined all the issues to drive greater efficiencies. The issues included inherent design issues with HPC pump, contamination of the HPC with impurities, and the lead time required for annual calibration in the USA. HPC is used for mandatory testing/verification of formation tester/pressure measurement/logging-while drilling tools by oilfield service providers, including Halliburton. After market study andanalysis, it was concluded that the current HPC model is best suited in the oilfield industry. To use theexisting HPC model effectively, design andcontamination issues were addressed through design and process improvements. An optimum network is proposed after comparing different supply-chain models for calibration lead-time reduction.

Keywords: Hydraulic Pressure Controller/Calibrator, M/LWD, Pressure, FTWD

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

Abstract:

This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine.

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Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

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Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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Authors: Xin Bai, Han Yu, Yongchang Ji, Dan C. Marinescu

Abstract:

We discuss the application of matching in the area of resource discovery and resource allocation in grid computing. We present a formal definition of matchmaking, overview algorithms to evaluate different matchmaking expressions, and develop a matchmaking service for an intelligent grid environment.

Keywords: Grid, Matchmaking, Ontology

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Authors: Charru Malhotra, Girija Krishnaswamy

Abstract:

Setting up of rural telecentres, popularly referred to as Common Service Centres (CSCs), are considered one of the initial forerunners of rural e-Governance initiatives under the Government of India-s National e-Governance Plan (NeGP). CSCs are implemented on public-private partnership (PPP) – where State governments play a major role in facilitating the establishment of CSCs and investments are made by private companies referred to as Service Centre Agencies (SCAs). CSC implementation is expected to help in improving public service delivery in a transparent and efficient manner. However, there is very little research undertaken to study the actual impact of CSC implementation at the grassroots level. This paper addresses the gap by identifying the circumstances, concerns and expectations from the point-of-view of citizens and examining the finer aspects of social processes in the context of rural e-Governance.

Keywords: Capacity Building, Citizens' Participation, e- Government, NeGP, PPP, Rural Telecentres

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Authors: Ziad Abdeldayem, Jakub Markiewicz, Kunal Kansara, Laura Edwards

Abstract:

Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is one of the main technologies for generating high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs). DTMs are crucial to several applications, such as topographic mapping, flood zone delineation, geographic information systems (GIS), hydrological modelling, spatial analysis, etc. Laser scanning system generates irregularly spaced three-dimensional cloud of points. Raw ALS data are mainly ground points (that represent the bare earth) and non-ground points (that represent buildings, trees, cars, etc.). Removing all the non-ground points from the raw data is referred to as filtering. Filtering heavily forested areas is considered a difficult and challenging task as the canopy stops laser pulses from reaching the terrain surface. This research presents an approach for removing non-ground points from raw ALS data in densely forested areas. Smoothing splines are exploited to interpolate and fit the noisy ALS data. The presented filter utilizes a weight function to allocate weights for each point of the data. Furthermore, unlike most of the methods, the presented filtering algorithm is designed to be automatic. Three different forested areas in the United Kingdom are used to assess the performance of the algorithm. The results show that the generated DTMs from the filtered data are accurate (when compared against reference terrain data) and the performance of the method is stable for all the heavily forested data samples. The average root mean square error (RMSE) value is 0.35 m.

Keywords: Airborne laser scanning, digital terrain models, filtering, forested areas.

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Authors: Khalid Albishi

Abstract:

This paper participates in giving new vision and explains the learning and acquisition processes of English language by analyzing a certain context. Five important factors in English language acquisition and learning are discussed and suitable solutions are provided. The factors are compared with the learners' linguistic background at Bisha College of Technology BCT attempting to link the issues faced by students and the research done on similar situations. These factors are phonology, age of acquisition, motivation, psychology and courses of English. These factors are very important; because they interfere and affect specific learning processes at BCT context and general English learning situations.

Keywords: Acquisition, age, factors, language, learning.

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Authors: Rumyana Peytcheva-Forsyth, Blagovesna Yovkova

Abstract:

This paper presents the outcomes of a qualitative study which aims to investigate the pedagogical potentials of serious games in the preparation of future teachers. The authors discuss the existing problems and barriers associated with the organization of teaching practices in Bulgaria as part of the pre-service teacher training, as well as the attitudes and perceptions of the interviewed academics, teachers and trainees concerning the integration of serious games in the teaching practicum. The study outcomes strongly confirm the positive attitudes of the respondents to the introduction of virtual learning environments for the development of professional skills of future teachers as a supplement to the traditional forms of education. Through the inclusion of serious games it is expected to improve the quality of practical training of pre-service teachers as they overcome many of the problems identified in the existing teaching practices. The outcomes of the study will inform the design of the educational simulation software which is part of the project SimAula Tomorrow's Teachers Training.

Keywords: pre-service teacher training, serious games, virtual practicum, simulations

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of periodic model for each season are selected through the examination of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models are established by examining the properties of the residual for each season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount future environmental problems.

Keywords: Exchange of Gases, Goodness of Fit, Open Sewer Channel, PAR(p) Models, Periodicities, Season Wise Models.

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Authors: Satya Pilla

Abstract:

This study explores how the mechanics of learning paves the way to engineering innovation. Theories related to learning in the new product/service innovation are reviewed from an organizational perspective, behavioral perspective, and engineering perspective. From this, an engineering team-s external interactions for knowledge brokering and internal composition for skill balance are examined from a learning and innovation viewpoints. As a result, an integrated learning model is developed by reconciling the theoretical perspectives as well as developing propositions that emphasize the centrality of learning, and its drivers, in the engineering product/service development. The paper also provides a review and partial validation of the propositions using the results of a previously published field study in the aerospace industry.

Keywords: Engineering Services, Integrated Learning, NewProduct Development, Service Innovation

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Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

Abstract:

Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of the solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulated the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar Cycles (SC) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Coronal Hole Area Feed-Forward neural network models, solar High-Speed Streams, HSSs.

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Authors: C. Temaneh Nyah

Abstract:

The analysis of electromagnetic environment using deterministic mathematical models is characterized by the impossibility of analyzing a large number of interacting network stations with a priori unknown parameters, and this is characteristic, for example, of mobile wireless communication networks. One of the tasks of the tools used in designing, planning and optimization of mobile wireless network is to carry out simulation of electromagnetic environment based on mathematical modelling methods, including computer experiment, and to estimate its effect on radio communication devices. This paper proposes the development of a statistical model of electromagnetic environment of a mobile wireless communication network by describing the parameters and factors affecting it including the propagation channel and their statistical models.

Keywords: Electromagnetic Environment, Statistical model, Wireless communication network.

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Authors: S. Alotaibi, D. Roussinov

Abstract:

Mobile government services implementation faces several challenges in developing countries. This paper studies some of those challenges in the context of Saudi Arabia. The study aims to investigate factors affecting m-government acceptance in Saudi Arabia, including ease of use, usefulness, service quality, trust, intention to use and users’ satisfaction. Our investigation will help in integrating the m-government services in citizens’ everyday life. We collected and analyzed our data from focus groups. These focus groups are from King Saud University and Imam Muhammed Bin Saud University, so the samples size are five and seven participants, respectively. We found that there are some factors to identifying citizen requirements to Saudi mobile government services. These services should be easy to use and not require too much effort. Also, these services must be fully trusted.

Keywords: E-government, M-government, focus group, Saudi mobile government services.

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Authors: A. Pereira, S. Haffner, L. V. Gasperin

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This paper presents two simplified models to determine nodal voltages in power distribution networks. These models allow estimating the impact of the installation of reactive power compensations equipments like fixed or switched capacitor banks. The procedure used to develop the models is similar to the procedure used to develop linear power flow models of transmission lines, which have been widely used in optimization problems of operation planning and system expansion. The steady state non-linear load flow equations are approximated by linear equations relating the voltage amplitude and currents. The approximations of the linear equations are based on the high relationship between line resistance and line reactance (ratio R/X), which is valid for power distribution networks. The performance and accuracy of the models are evaluated through comparisons with the exact results obtained from the solution of the load flow using two test networks: a hypothetical network with 23 nodes and a real network with 217 nodes.

Keywords: Distribution network models, distribution systems, optimization, power system planning.

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Authors: R. Kara, M. Can

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In this paper we study a food chain model with three trophic levels and Michaelis-Menten type ratio-dependent functional response. Distinctive feature of this model is the sensitive dependence of the dynamical behavior on the initial populations and parameters of the real world. The stability of the equilibrium points are also investigated.

Keywords: Food chain, Ratio dependent models, Three level models.

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Authors: R. K. Dubey

Abstract:

Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.

Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling (G) and Cosmological Constant term (β).

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Authors: H. Al-Sholigom, Z. Al-Mostafa

Abstract:

Many associations and experimental models have been developed to estimate solar radiation around the world. The duration of sunshine is the most commonly used parameter for estimating global solar radiation because it can be easily and reliably measured. To estimate the global monthly solar average on horizontal surfaces, we used 52 models with widely available data in Hutat Suder, Saudi Arabia. After testing the models, some were not suitable for use in this area, while others differed in performance. The best models have been identified.

Keywords: Earth, Global solar radiation, Hutat Suder, Saudi Arabia, sunshine, measured data.

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Authors: Shuh Liang

Abstract:

This article provides empirical evidence on the effect of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986 to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.

Keywords: Current account deficit, productivity growth, foreign demand, vector autoregression.

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Authors: Kgabo H. Badimo, Sheryl Buckley

Abstract:

Knowledge is increasingly recognised in this, the knowledge era, as a strategic resource, by public sector organisations, in view of the public sector reform initiatives. People and knowledge play a vital role in attaining improved organisational performance and high service quality. Many government departments in the public sector have started to realise the importance of knowledge management in streamlining their operations and processes. This study focused on knowledge management in the public healthcare service organisations, where the concept of service provider competitiveness pales to insignificance, considering the huge challenges emanating from the healthcare and public sector reforms. Many government departments are faced with challenges of improving organisational performance and service delivery, improving accountability, making informed decisions, capturing the knowledge of the aging workforce, and enhancing partnerships with stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to examine the knowledge management practices of the Gauteng Department of Health in South Africa, in order to understand how knowledge management practices influence improvement in organisational performance and healthcare service delivery. This issue is explored through a review of literature on dominant views on knowledge management and healthcare service delivery, as well as results of interviews with, and questionnaire responses from, the general staff of the Gauteng Department of Health. Web-based questionnaires, face-to-face interviews and organisational documents were used to collect data. The data were analysed using both the quantitative and qualitative methods. The central question investigated was: To what extent can the conditions required for successful knowledge management be observed, in order to improve organisational performance and healthcare service delivery in the Gauteng Department of Health. The findings showed that the elements of knowledge management capabilities investigated in this study, namely knowledge creation, knowledge sharing and knowledge application, have a positive, significant relationship with all measures of organisational performance and healthcare service delivery. These findings thus indicate that by employing knowledge management principles, the Gauteng Department of Health could improve its ability to achieve its operational goals and objectives, and solve organisational and healthcare challenges, thereby improving organisational performance and enhancing healthcare service delivery in Gauteng.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, Healthcare Service Delivery, Public Healthcare, Public Sector.

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Authors: Andreas Ahrens, Ojaras Purvinis Jelena Zāšcerinska

Abstract:

A successful shopping experience without overcrowded shops and long waiting times undoubtedly leads to the release of happiness hormones and is generally considered as the goal of any optimization. Factors influencing the shopping experience can be divided into internal and external ones. External factors are related e. g. to the arrival of the customers to the shop whereas internal factors are linked with the service process itself when checking out (waiting in the queue to the cash register and the scanning of the goods as well as the payment process itself) or any other non-expected delay when changing the status from a visitor to a buyer by choosing goods or items. This paper divides the customer-server interaction in five phases starting with the customer arrival at the shop, the selection of goods, the buyer waiting in the queue to the cash register, the payment process and ending with the customer or buyer departure. Our simulation results show how five phases are intertwined and influence the overall shopping experience. Parameters for measuring the shopping experience based on a burstiness level in each of the five phases of the customer-server interaction are estimated.

Keywords: Customers’ burstiness, cash register, customers’ waiting time, gap distribution function.

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Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

Abstract:

Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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