Search results for: Financial early warning model

Authors: K. Idir, H. Merouani, Y. Tlili.

Abstract:

An effective method for the early detection of breast cancer is the mammographic screening. One of the most important signs of early breast cancer is the presence of microcalcifications. For the detection of microcalcification in a mammography image, we propose to conceive a multiagent system based on a dual irregular pyramid. An initial segmentation is obtained by an incremental approach; the result represents level zero of the pyramid. The edge information obtained by application of the Canny filter is taken into account to affine the segmentation. The edge-agents and region-agents cooper level by level of the pyramid by exploiting its various characteristics to provide the segmentation process convergence.

Keywords: Dual Pyramid, Image Segmentation, Multi-agent System, Region/Edge Cooperation.

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Authors: M. Nogaibayeva, Zh. Kumganbayev

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This article discusses the customs and traditions in Turkestan in the late XIXth and early XXth centuries. Having a long history, Turkestan is well-known as the birthplace of many nations and nationalities. The name of Turkestan is also given to it for a reason - the land of the Turkic peoples who inhabited Central Asia and united under together. Currently, nations and nationalities of the Turkestan region formed their own sovereign states, and every year they prove their country names in the world community. Political, economic importance of Turkestan, which became the gold wire between Asia and Europe was always very high. So systematically various aggressive actions were made by several great powers. As a result of expansionary policy of colonization of the Russian Empire - the Turkestan has appeared.

Keywords: Turkestan, Turkic people, Asia and Europe, Russian Empire, democracy.

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Authors: Maassoumeh Javadi Baygi, Abdul Rahman B Ramli, Borhanuddin Mohd Ali, Syamsiah Mashohor

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The expectation of network performance from the early days of ARPANET until now has been changed significantly. Every day, new advancement in technological infrastructure opens the doors for better quality of service and accordingly level of perceived quality of network services have been increased over the time. Nowadays for many applications, late information has no value or even may result in financial or catastrophic loss, on the other hand, demands for some level of guarantee in providing and maintaining quality of service are ever increasing. Based on this history, having a QoS aware routing system which is able to provide today's required level of quality of service in the networks and effectively adapt to the future needs, seems as a key requirement for future Internet. In this work we have extended the traditional AntNet routing system to support QoS with multiple metrics such as bandwidth and delay which is named Q-Net. This novel scalable QoS routing system aims to provide different types of services in the network simultaneously. Each type of service can be provided for a period of time in the network and network nodes do not need to have any previous knowledge about it. When a type of quality of service is requested, Q-Net will allocate required resources for the service and will guarantee QoS requirement of the service, based on target objectives.

Keywords: Quality of Service, Routing, Ant Colony Optimization, Ant-based algorithms.

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Authors: Hina Gull, Farooque Azam, Wasi Haider Butt, Sardar Zafar Iqbal

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The software system goes through a number of stages during its life and a software process model gives a standard format for planning, organizing and running a project. The article presents a new software development process model named as “Divide and Conquer Process Model", based on the idea first it divides the things to make them simple and then gathered them to get the whole work done. The article begins with the backgrounds of different software process models and problems in these models. This is followed by a new divide and conquer process model, explanation of its different stages and at the end edge over other models is shown.

Keywords: Process Model, Waterfall, divide and conquer, Requirements.

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Authors: Gorazd Karer, Igor Skrjanc, Borut Zupancic

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The complex hybrid and nonlinear nature of many processes that are met in practice causes problems with both structure modelling and parameter identification; therefore, obtaining a model that is suitable for MPC is often a difficult task. The basic idea of this paper is to present an identification method for a piecewise affine (PWA) model based on a fuzzy clustering algorithm. First we introduce the PWA model. Next, we tackle the identification method. We treat the fuzzy clustering algorithm, deal with the projections of the fuzzy clusters into the input space of the PWA model and explain the estimation of the parameters of the PWA model by means of a modified least-squares method. Furthermore, we verify the usability of the proposed identification approach on a hybrid nonlinear batch reactor example. The result suggest that the batch reactor can be efficiently identified and thus formulated as a PWA model, which can eventually be used for model predictive control purposes.

Keywords: Batch reactor, fuzzy clustering, hybrid systems, identification, nonlinear systems, PWA systems.

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Authors: Peng Yew Wong

Abstract:

House prices in the Australian capital cities were at record levels subsequent to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 and many believed that foreign investors, especially the Chinese investors, were the main reason for the Australian capital cities’ house prices escalation. This research conducted an Australian cross border semi-structured interviews in Shanghai, China to uncover historical evidence and emerging trend supporting the existence of a significant relationship between overseas investors and residential housing markets performance in Australia subsequent to the GFC 2008. Some unique investment strategies of private investors from China which emphasised on non-capitalist factors such as early education were identified, alongside with some insights on the significant China government policies that have incentivised the cross border investments from China. It is believed that this understanding will assist policy makers to effectively manage the overheated Australian residential property market without compromising the steady flow of FREI.

Keywords: Australian housing market, residential property, foreign real estate investment, education, China investor.

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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In many countries, the construction industry relies heavily on outsourcing models in executing their projects and expanding their businesses to fit in the diverse market. Such extensive integration of subcontractors is becoming an influential factor in contractor’s cash flow management. Accordingly, subcontractors’ financial terms are important phenomena and pivotal components for the well-being of the contractor’s cash flow. The aim of this research is to study the contractor’s cash flow with respect to the owner and subcontractor’s payment management plans, considering variable advance payment, payment frequency, and lag and retention policies. The model is developed to provide contractors with a decision support tool that can assist in selecting the optimum subcontracting plan to minimize the contractor’s financing limits and optimize the profit values. The model is built using Microsoft Excel VBA coding, and the genetic algorithm is utilized as the optimization tool. Three objective functions are investigated, which are minimizing the highest negative overdraft value, minimizing the net present worth of overdraft, and maximizing the project net profit. The model is validated on a full-scale project which includes both self-performed and subcontracted work packages. The results show potential outputs in optimizing the contractor’s negative cash flow values and, in the meantime, assisting contractors in selecting suitable subcontractors to achieve the objective function.

Keywords: Cash flow optimization, payment plan, procurement management, subcontracting plan.

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Authors: Morteza Zahedi, Philippe Dreuw, Thomas Deselaers, Hermann Ney

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Sign language is used by the deaf and hard of hearing people for communication. Automatic sign language recognition is a challenging research area since sign language often is the only way of communication for the deaf people. Sign language includes different components of visual actions made by the signer using the hands, the face, and the torso, to convey his/her meaning. To use different aspects of signs, we combine the different groups of features which have been extracted from the image frames recorded directly by a stationary camera. We combine the features in two levels by employing three techniques. At the feature level, an early feature combination can be performed by concatenating and weighting different feature groups, or by concatenating feature groups over time and using LDA to choose the most discriminant elements. At the model level, a late fusion of differently trained models can be carried out by a log-linear model combination. In this paper, we investigate these three combination techniques in an automatic sign language recognition system and show that the recognition rate can be significantly improved.

Keywords: American sign language, appearance-based features, Feature combination, Sign language recognition

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Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, T. Subongkot, T. Ngawhirunpat

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In this project we are interested in studying different kinds of shed snake skins in order to apply them as a model membrane for pharmaceutical purposes instead of human stratum corneum. Many types of shed snake skins as well as model drugs were studied by different techniques. The data will give deeper understanding about the interaction between drugs and model membranes and may allow us to choose the suitable model membrane for studying the effect of pharmaceutical products.

Keywords: DSC, FTIR, permeation, SAXS, shed snake skin.

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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Authors: N. Ghoualmi-Zine, A. Araar

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In this article we propose to model Net-banking system by game theory. We adopt extensive game to model our web application. We present the model in term of players and strategy. We present UML diagram related the protocol game.

Keywords: Game theory, model, state, web application.

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Authors: Risanuri Hidayat

Abstract:

BER analysis of Impulse Radio Ultra Wideband (IRUWB) pulse modulations over S-V channel model is proposed in this paper. The UWB pulse is Gaussian monocycle pulse modulated using Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) and Pulse Position Modulation (PPM). The channel model is generated from a modified S-V model. Bit-error rate (BER) is measured over several of bit rates. The result shows that all modulation are appropriate for both LOS and NLOS channel, but PAM gives better performance in bit rates and SNR. Moreover, as standard of speed has been given for UWB, the communication is appropriate with high bit rates in LOS channel.

Keywords: IR-UWB, S-V Channel Model, LOS NLOS, PAM, PPM

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

Abstract:

Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: Banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management.

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Authors: Anam Azam, Muhammad Rafiq

Abstract:

The study identified the socio-economic and demographic factors of both married and unmarried females in third world countries. Almost all the countries have same problems but we have selected Pakistan as a sample country. The main purpose of this study was to examine which factors forced women to participate in labor market. So the best technique of data collection was survey of both married and unmarried females between the ages of 20 to 49. Two models (probit and logit) were used to analyze the factors which effect on FLFP. The result showed that some factors e.g. age; education and marital status have significant effect on FLFP. The findings showed that educated women and those who belong to joint families are more participate because of financial pressure.

Keywords: Education, Financial status, Family pressure Labor Market participation.

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Authors: Huei-Wen Lin

Abstract:

This study explored the relationship between psychological traits, demographics and financial behavioral biases for individual investors in Taiwan stock market. By using questionnaire survey method conducted in 2010, there are 554 valid convenient samples collected to examine the determinants of three types of behavioral biases. Based on literature review, two hypothesized models are constructed and further used to evaluate the effects of big five personality traits and demographic variables on investment biases through Structural Equation Model (SEM) analysis. The results showed that investment biases of individual investors are significantly related to four personality traits as well as some demographics.

Keywords: Behavioral finance, Big Five, Disposition effect, Herding, Overconfidence, Personality traits.

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Authors: Sheel Chakraborty

Abstract:

Modern society in developed countries has distanced itself from the earlier norm of joint family living, and with the increase of economic pressure, parents' availability for their children during their infant years has been consistently decreasing over the past three decades. This has been promoted in the US through the legislature and funding. Early care and education may have a positive impact on young minds, but a growing number of kids facing social challenges in making friendships in their teenage years raises serious concerns about its effectiveness. The survey-based primary research presented here shows that a statistically significant number of millennials between the ages of 10 and 25 years prefer to build friendships virtually than face-to-face interactions. Moreover, many teenagers depend more on their virtual friends whom they never met. Contrary to the belief that early social interactions in a non-home setup make the kids confident and more prepared for the real world, many shy-natured kids seem to develop a sense of shakiness in forming social relationships, resulting in loneliness by the time they are young adults. Reflecting on George Mead’s theory of self that is made up of “I” and “Me”, most functioning homes provide the required freedom and forgivable, congenial environment for building the "I" of a toddler; however, daycare or preschools can barely match that. It seems social images created from the “Me” perspective in preschoolers in a daycare environment has interfered and greatly overpowered the formation of a confident "I" thus created a crisis around the inability to form friendships face to face when they grow older. Though the pervasive nature of social media cannot be ignored, the non-parental early care and education practices adopted largely by the urban population have created a favorable platform of teen psychology on which social media popularity thrived, especially providing refuge to shy Gen-Z teenagers. This can explain why young adults today perceive social media as their preferred outlet of expression and a place to form dependable friendships, despite the risk of being cyberbullied.

Keywords: Digital socialization, shyness, developmental psychology, friendship, early education.

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Authors: Chokri Jebali, Noureddine Boulejfen, Ali Gharsallah, Fadhel M. Ghannouchi

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In this paper, a system level behavioural model for RF power amplifier, which exhibits memory effects, and based on multibranch system is proposed. When higher order terms are included, the memory polynomial model (MPM) exhibits numerical instabilities. A set of memory orthogonal polynomial model (OMPM) is introduced to alleviate the numerical instability problem associated to MPM model. A data scaling and centring algorithm was applied to improve the power amplifier modeling accuracy. Simulation results prove that the numerical instability can be greatly reduced, as well as the model precision improved with nonlinear model.

Keywords: power amplifier, orthogonal model, polynomialmodel , memory effects.

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag.

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Authors: Ömer Faruk Baykoç, Ümit Sami Sakalli

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In this paper, we propose a fuzzy aggregate production planning (APP) model for blending problem in a brass factory which is the problem of computing optimal amounts of raw materials for the total production of several types of brass in a period. The model has deterministic and imprecise parameters which follows triangular possibility distributions. The brass casting APP model can not always be solved by using common approaches used in the literature. Therefore a mathematical model is presented for solving this problem. In the proposed model, the Lai and Hwang-s fuzzy ranking concept is relaxed by using one constraint instead of three constraints. An application of the brass casting APP model in a brass factory shows that the proposed model successfully solves the multi-blend problem in casting process and determines the optimal raw material purchasing policies.

Keywords: Aggregate production planning, Blending, brasscasting, possibilistic programming.

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the egovernment portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an egovernment maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: Best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model.

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Authors: Shu-Hsien. Liao, Chi-Chuan. Wu, Da-Chian. Hu, Guang An. Tsuei

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This study investigates the roles of knowledge acquisition, absorptive capacity, and innovation capability in finance and manufacturing industries. With 362 valid questionnaires from manufactures and financial industries in Taiwan, we examine the relationships between absorptive capacity, knowledge acquisition and innovation capability using a structural equation model. The results indicate that absorptive capacity is the mediator between knowledge acquisition and innovation capability, and that knowledge acquisition has a positive effect on absorptive capacity.

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, knowledge acquisition, innovation capability.

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Authors: Joanna Sooknanan, Donna Comissiong

Abstract:

We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit the usual theoretical approach of incorporating a fictitious viscoelastic stress term into the flux equation. As a result, we obtain a model that captures the essence of the phenomenon of trapping skinning, while preserving the integrity of the experimentally verified Fickian law for diffusion. An appropriate asymptotic analysis is carried out, and a parameter is introduced to represent the speed of the desorption front. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the desorption dynamics of the model. Recommendations are made for future modifications of the model, and provisions are made for the inclusion of experimentally determined frontal speeds.

Keywords: Phenomenological Model, Polymer, Desorption, Trapping Skinning

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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Authors: Rui. Zhang, Yiming. Pi

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for human Body configuration based on the Silhouette. We propose to address this problem under the Bayesian framework. We use an effective Model based MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method to solve the configuration problem, in which the best configuration could be defined as MAP (maximize a posteriori probability) in Bayesian model. This model based MCMC utilizes the human body model to drive the MCMC sampling from the solution space. It converses the original high dimension space into a restricted sub-space constructed by the human model and uses a hybrid sampling algorithm. We choose an explicit human model and carefully select the likelihood functions to represent the best configuration solution. The experiments show that this method could get an accurate configuration and timesaving for different human from multi-views.

Keywords: Bayesian framework, MCMC, model based, human body configuration.

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Authors: E. Mulliner, V. Maliene

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The concept of housing affordability is a contested issue, but a pressing and widespread problem for many countries. Simple ratio measures based on housing expenditure and income are habitually used to defined and assess housing affordability. However, conceptualising and measuring affordability in this manner focuses only on financial attributes and fails to deal with wider issues such as housing quality, location and access to services and facilities. The research is based on the notion that the housing affordability problem encompasses more than the financial costs of housing and a households ability to meet such costs and must address larger issues such as social and environmental sustainability and the welfare of households. Therefore, the need arises for a broad and more encompassing set of attributes by which housing affordability can be assessed. This paper presents a system of criteria by which the affordability of different housing locations could be assessed in a comprehensive and sustainable manner. Moreover, the paper explores the way in which such criteria could be measured.

Keywords: Affordable housing, attributes, housing affordability, sustainable communities

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Authors: S.Ali Al-Mawsawi

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In this paper, a new developed construction model of the UPFC is proposed. The construction of this model consists of one shunt compensation block and two series compensation blocks. In this case, the UPFC with the new construction model will be investigated when it is installed in multi-machine systems with nonlinear load model. In addition, the steady–state performance of the new model operating as impedance compensation will be presented and compared with that obtained from the system without compensation.

Keywords: UPFC, PWM, Nonlinear load, Multi-Machines system

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Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

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This paper addresses one of the most important issues have been considered in hybrid MTS/MTO production environments. To cope with the problem, a mathematical programming model is applied from a tactical point of view. The model is converted to a fuzzy goal programming model, because a degree of uncertainty is involved in hybrid MTS/MTO context. Finally, application of the proposed model in an industrial center is reported and the results prove the validity of the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets theory, Hybrid MTS/MTO, Order penetration point, Quadratic programming.

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Authors: Zh.Mingaleva, K.Balkova

Abstract:

Innovations and innovative activity get the increasing value for successful financial and economic activity of the countries and regions. The level of innovative sphere development determines place of a country or a region in world economy and forms a basis of steady economic growth. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the national economic safety in the conditions of innovative development, its problems, risks and threats. Economy can be considered as aspiring for transition to innovative way only with finding of economic safety: financial independence, power stability and technological progress. There are statistical indicators, defining the level of economic security and factors, threatening economic safety of the state. The research is based on the analysis of factors and indicators in conditions of innovative development. The paper is illustrated by the examples of possible estimated system of the economic safety level.

Keywords: Economic safety, innovative activity, innovative development, innovative economy

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Authors: Krzysztof Fujarewicz

Abstract:

This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.

Keywords: Mobile robot, sensors, prediction, anticipation.

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Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite

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Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.

Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.

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