Search results for: tourist variables.
904 Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Management in Tourism Industry- A Case Study from the Island of Taiwan
Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai
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Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.
Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3815903 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems
Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber
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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.
Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 993902 Sensitivity Analysis of Principal Stresses in Concrete Slab of Rigid Pavement Made From Recycled Materials
Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová
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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.
Keywords: Concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2121901 Interaction Effect of Feed Rate and Cutting Speed in CNC-Turning on Chip Micro-Hardness of 304- Austenitic Stainless Steel
Authors: G. H. Senussi
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The present work is concerned with the effect of turning process parameters (cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut) and distance from the center of work piece as input variables on the chip micro-hardness as response or output. Three experiments were conducted; they were used to investigate the chip micro-hardness behavior at diameter of work piece for 30[mm], 40[mm], and 50[mm]. Response surface methodology (R.S.M) is used to determine and present the cause and effect of the relationship between true mean response and input control variables influencing the response as a two or three dimensional hyper surface. R.S.M has been used for designing a three factor with five level central composite rotatable factors design in order to construct statistical models capable of accurate prediction of responses. The results obtained showed that the application of R.S.M can predict the effect of machining parameters on chip micro-hardness. The five level factorial designs can be employed easily for developing statistical models to predict chip micro-hardness by controllable machining parameters. Results obtained showed that the combined effect of cutting speed at it?s lower level, feed rate and depth of cut at their higher values, and larger work piece diameter can result increasing chi micro-hardness.Keywords: Machining Parameters, Chip Micro-Hardness, CNCMachining, 304-Austenic Stainless Steel.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3274900 Latent Factors of Severity in Truck-Involved and Non-Truck-Involved Crashes on Freeways
Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho
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Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.
Keywords: Crash severity, structural equation modeling, truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1325899 Financing Decision and Productivity Growth for the Venture Capital Industry Using High-Order Fuzzy Time Series
Authors: Shang-En Yu
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Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.
Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1379898 Food Safety Management: Concerns from EU Tourists in Thailand
Authors: Kevin Wongleedee
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Culinary culture differences can cause health problems for international tourists in Thailand. This paper drew upon data collected from an international tourist survey conducted in Bangkok, Thailand during summer of 2012. Summer is the period that a variety food safety issues and incidents are often publicized in Thailand. The survey targeted European Union tourists- concerns toward a variety of food safety issues that they encountered during their trip in Thailand. A total of 400 respondents were elicited as data input for t-test, and one way ANOVA test. The findings revealed an astonishing result that up to 46.5 percent of respondents were sick at least one time or more in Thailand. However, the majority of respondents trusted that the Thai hotel and Thai restaurants would ensure food safety, but they did not trust street vendors to ensure food safety. The level of food safety concern can be ranked from most concern to least concern by using the value of mean scores as follows: 1) artificial coloring, 2) use of preservatives, 3) antibiotics, 4) growth hormones, 5) chemical residues, and 6) bacterial contamination. The overall mean score for level of concerns was 3.493 with standard deviation of 1.677 which did not indicate a very high level of concern. In addition, the result for t-test and one way ANOVA test revealed that there was not much effect from the demographic differences to level of food safety concerns.Keywords: Concerns, European Union Tourists, Food Safety Management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2862897 The Design of English Materials to Communicate the Identity of Mueang District, Samut Songkram for Ecotourism
Authors: Kitda Praraththajariya
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The main purpose of this research was to study how to communicate the identity of the Mueang district, SamutSongkram province for ecotourism. The qualitative data was collected through studying related materials, exploring the area, in-depth interviews with three groups of people: three directly responsible officers who were key informants of the district, twenty foreign tourists and five Thai tourist guides. A content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. The two main findings of the study were as follows: 1. The identity of Amphur (District) Mueang, SamutSongkram province. This establishment was near the Mouth of Maekong River for normal people and tourists, consisting of rest accommodations. There are restaurants where food and drinks are served, rich mangrove forests, Hoy Lod (Razor Clam) and mangrove trees. Don Hoy Lod, is characterized by muddy beaches, is a coastal wetland for Ramsar Site. It is at 1099th ranging where the greatest number of Hoy Lod (Razor Clam) can be seen from March to May each year. 2. The communication of the identity of AmphurMueang, SamutSongkram province which the researcher could find and design to present in English materials can be summed up in 4 items: 1) The history of AmphurMueang, SamutSongkram province 2) WatPhetSamutWorrawihan 3) The Learning source of Ecotourism: Don Hoy Lod and Mangrove forest 4) How to keep AmphurMueang, SamutSongkram province for ecotourism.
Keywords: Foreigner tourists, signified, semiotics, ecotourism.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1843896 Retrospective Reconstruction of Time Series Data for Integrated Waste Management
Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy
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The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modeling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modeling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modeling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.
Keywords: Content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2011895 Large Deviations for Lacunary Systems
Authors: Bainian Li, Kongsheng Zhang
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Let Xi be a Lacunary System, we established large deviations inequality for Lacunary System. Furthermore, we gained Marcinkiewicz Larger Number Law with dependent random variables sequences.Keywords: Lacunary system, larger deviations, Locally GeneralizedGaussian, Strong law of large numbers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1070894 Classification of Business Models of Italian Bancassurance by Balance Sheet Indicators
Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi
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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.
Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1255893 Stock Price Forecast by Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec
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In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2603892 Factors Influencing Bank Profitability of Czech Banks and Their International Parent Companies
Authors: Libena Cernohorska
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The goal of this paper is to specify factors influencing the profitability of selected banks. Next, a model will be created to help establish variables that have a demonstrable influence on the development of the selected banks' profitability ratios. Czech banks and their international parent companies were selected for analyzing profitability. Banks categorized as large banks (according to the Czech National Bank's system, which ranks banks according to balance sheet total) were selected to represent the Czech banks. Two ratios, the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the return on equity ratio (ROE) are used to assess bank profitability. Six endogenous and four external indicators were selected from among other factors that influence bank profitability. The data analyzed were for 2001–2013. First, correlation analysis, which was supposed to eliminate correlated values, was conducted. A large number of correlated values were established on the basis of this analysis. The strongly correlated values were omitted. Despite this, the subsequent regression analysis of profitability for the individual banks that were selected did not confirm that the selected variables influenced their profitability. The studied factors' influence on bank profitability was demonstrated only for Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka and Société Générale using regression analysis. For Československa Obchodni Banka, it was demonstrated that inflation level and the amount of the central bank's interest rate influenced the return on assets ratio and that capital adequacy and market concentration influenced the return on equity ratio for Société Générale.Keywords: Banks, profitability, regression analysis, ROA, ROE.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1880891 Emergentist Metaphorical Creativity: Towards a Model of Analysing Metaphorical Creativity in Interactive Talk
Authors: Afef Badri
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Metaphorical creativity does not constitute a static property of discourse. It is an interactive dynamic process created online. There has been a lack of research concerning online produced metaphorical creativity. This paper intends to account for metaphorical creativity in online talk-in-interaction as a dynamic process that emerges as discourse unfolds. It brings together insights from the emergentist approach to the study of metaphor in verbal interactions and insights from conceptual blending approach as a model for analysing online metaphorical constructions to propose a model for studying metaphorical creativity in interactive talk. The model is based on three focal points. First, metaphorical creativity is a dynamic emergent and open-to-change process that evolves in real time as interlocutors constantly blend and re-blend previous metaphorical contributions. Second, it is not a product of isolated individual minds but a joint achievement that is co-constructed and co-elaborated by interlocutors. The third and most important point is that the emergent process of metaphorical creativity is tightly shaped by contextual variables surrounding talk-in-interaction. It is grounded in the framework of interpretation of interlocutors. It is constrained by preceding contributions in a way that creates textual cohesion of the verbal exchange and it is also a goal-oriented process predefined by the communicative intention of each participant in a way that reveals the ideological coherence/incoherence of the entire conversation.
Keywords: Communicative intention, conceptual blending, contextual variables, the emergentist approach, ideological coherence, metaphorical creativity, textual cohesion
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1033890 Ψ-Eventual Stability of Differential System with Impulses
Authors: Bhanu Gupta
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In this paper, the criteria of Ψ-eventual stability have been established for generalized impulsive differential systems of multiple dependent variables. The sufficient conditions have been obtained using piecewise continuous Lyapunov function. An example is given to support our theoretical result.
Keywords: impulsive differential equations, Lyapunov function, eventual stability
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4040889 Cascaded ANN for Evaluation of Frequency and Air-gap Voltage of Self-Excited Induction Generator
Authors: Raja Singh Khela, R. K. Bansal, K. S. Sandhu, A. K. Goel
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Self-Excited Induction Generator (SEIG) builds up voltage while it enters in its magnetic saturation region. Due to non-linear magnetic characteristics, the performance analysis of SEIG involves cumbersome mathematical computations. The dependence of air-gap voltage on saturated magnetizing reactance can only be established at rated frequency by conducting a laboratory test commonly known as synchronous run test. But, there is no laboratory method to determine saturated magnetizing reactance and air-gap voltage of SEIG at varying speed, terminal capacitance and other loading conditions. For overall analysis of SEIG, prior information of magnetizing reactance, generated frequency and air-gap voltage is essentially required. Thus, analytical methods are the only alternative to determine these variables. Non-existence of direct mathematical relationship of these variables for different terminal conditions has forced the researchers to evolve new computational techniques. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are very useful for solution of such complex problems, as they do not require any a priori information about the system. In this paper, an attempt is made to use cascaded neural networks to first determine the generated frequency and magnetizing reactance with varying terminal conditions and then air-gap voltage of SEIG. The results obtained from the ANN model are used to evaluate the overall performance of SEIG and are found to be in good agreement with experimental results. Hence, it is concluded that analysis of SEIG can be carried out effectively using ANNs.Keywords: Self-Excited Induction Generator, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Exciting Capacitance and Saturated magnetizingreactance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1678888 Factors Affecting Slot Machine Performance in an Electronic Gaming Machine Facility
Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre
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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.
Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1548887 Network Effects and QoS as Determining Factors in Selection of Mobile Operator: A Case Study from Higher Learning Institution in Dodoma Municipality in Tanzania
Authors: Justinian Anatory, Ekael Stephen Manase
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The use of mobile phones is growing tremendously all over the world. In Tanzania there are a number of operators licensed by Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) aiming at attracting customers into their networks. So far telecommunications market competition has been very stiff. Various measures are being taken by mobile operators to survive in the market. Such measure include introducing of different air time bundles on daily, weekly and monthly at lower tariffs. Other measures include the introduction of normal tariff, tourist package and one network. Despite of all these strategies, there is a dynamic competition in the market which needs to be explored. Some influences which attract customers to choose a certain mobile operator are of particular interest. This paper is investigating if the network effects and Quality of Services (QoS) influence mobile customers in selection of their mobile network operators. Seventy seven students from high learning institutions in Dodoma Municipality in Tanzania participated in responding to prepared questionnaires. The data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Software. The results indicate that, network coverage does influence customers in selection of mobile operators. In addition, this paper proposes further research in some areas especially where the study came up with different findings from what the theory has in place.
Keywords: Network effects, Quality of services, Consumer Buying, mobile operators.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2331886 Performance of BLDC Motor under Kalman Filter Sensorless Drive
Authors: Yuri Boiko, Ci Lin, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap
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The performance of a permanent magnet brushless direct current (BLDC) motor controlled by the Kalman filter based position-sensorless drive is studied in terms of its dependence from the system’s parameters variations. The effects of the system’s parameters changes on the dynamic behavior of state variables are verified. Simulated is the closed loop control scheme with Kalman filter in the feedback line. Distinguished are two separate data sampling modes in analyzing feedback output from the BLDC motor: (1) equal angular separation and (2) equal time intervals. In case (1), the data are collected via equal intervals of rotor’s angular position i, i.e. keeping = const. In case (2), the data collection time points ti are separated by equal sampling time intervals t = const. Demonstrated are the effects of the parameters changes on the sensorless control flow, in particular, reduction of the instability torque ripples, switching spikes, and torque load balancing. It is specifically shown that an efficient suppression of commutation induced instability torque ripples is an achievable selection of the sampling rate in the Kalman filter settings above a certain critical value. The computational cost of such suppression is shown to be higher for the motors with lower induction values of the windings.
Keywords: BLDC motor, Kalman filter, sensorless drive, state variables, instability torque ripples reduction, sampling rate.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 704885 Crashworthiness Optimization of an Automotive Front Bumper in Composite Material
Authors: S. Boria
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In the last years, the crashworthiness of an automotive body structure can be improved, since the beginning of the design stage, thanks to the development of specific optimization tools. It is well known how the finite element codes can help the designer to investigate the crashing performance of structures under dynamic impact. Therefore, by coupling nonlinear mathematical programming procedure and statistical techniques with FE simulations, it is possible to optimize the design with reduced number of analytical evaluations. In engineering applications, many optimization methods which are based on statistical techniques and utilize estimated models, called meta-models, are quickly spreading. A meta-model is an approximation of a detailed simulation model based on a dataset of input, identified by the design of experiments (DOE); the number of simulations needed to build it depends on the number of variables. Among the various types of meta-modeling techniques, Kriging method seems to be excellent in accuracy, robustness and efficiency compared to other ones when applied to crashworthiness optimization. Therefore the application of such meta-model was used in this work, in order to improve the structural optimization of a bumper for a racing car in composite material subjected to frontal impact. The specific energy absorption represents the objective function to maximize and the geometrical parameters subjected to some design constraints are the design variables. LS-DYNA codes were interfaced with LS-OPT tool in order to find the optimized solution, through the use of a domain reduction strategy. With the use of the Kriging meta-model the crashworthiness characteristic of the composite bumper was improved.
Keywords: Composite material, crashworthiness, finite element analysis, optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1115884 Chemical and Hydro-Geologic Analysis of Ikogosi Warm Spring Water in Nigeria
Authors: Akinola Ikudayisi, Folasade Adeyemo, Josiah Adeyemo
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This study focuses on the hydro-geology and chemical constituents analysis of Ikogosi Warm Spring waters in South West Nigeria. Ikogosi warm spring is a global tourist attraction because it has both warm and cold spring sources. Water samples from the cold spring, warm spring and the meeting point were collected, analyzed and the result shows close similarity in temperature, hydrogen iron concentration (pH), alkalinity, hardness, Calcium, Magnesium, Sodium, Iron, total dissolved solid and heavy metals. The measured parameters in the water samples are within World Health Organisation standards for fresh water. The study of the geology of the warm spring reveals that the study area is underlain by a group of slightly migmatised to non-migmatised paraschists and meta-igneous rocks. Also, concentration levels of selected heavy metals, (Copper, Cadmium, Zinc, Arsenic and Cromium) were determined in the water (ppm) samples. Chromium had the highest concentration value of 1.52ppm (an average of 49.67%) and Cadmium had the lowest concentration with value of 0.15ppm (an average of 4.89%). Comparison of these results showed that, their mean levels are within the standard values obtained in Nigeria. It can be concluded that both warm and spring water are safe for drinking.Keywords: Cold spring, Ikogosi, melting point, warm spring, water samples.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2291883 Anthropometric Correlates of Balance Performance in Non-Institutionalized Elderly
Authors: Okafor UAC, Ibeabuchimn, Omidina JO, Igwesi-Chidobe CN, Akinbo SRA
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Purpose: The fear of falling is a major concern among the elderly. Sixty-five percent of individuals older than 60 years of age experience loss of balance often on a daily basis. Therefore, balance assessment in the elderly deserves special attention due to its importance in functional mobility and safety. This study aimed at assessing balance performance and comparing some anthropometric parameters among a Nigerian non-institutionalized elderly population.
Methods: Sixty one elderly subjects (31 males and 30 females) participated in this study. Their ages ranged between 62 and 84 years. Ability to maintain balance was assessed using Functional Reach Test (FRT) and Sharpened Romberg Test (SRT). Anthropometric data including age, weight, height, arm length, leg length, bi-acromial breadth, foot length and trunk length were also collected. Analysis was done using Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient and Independent T-test, while level of significance was set as p<0.05.
Results: Age-related significant relationship was observed between balance performance and bi-acromial breadth among the elderly population. Gender and visual input also had a significant influence on balance performance. Other anthropometric variables (age, weight, height, arm length, leg length, foot length and trunk length) showed no significant relationship with balance performance among this elderly sample.
Conclusion: Only specific anthropometric variables may affect balance performances among the healthy elderly. The study further highlights the need for routine assessment of both static and dynamic balance to detect and appropriately manage aging-related diseases which could affect balance in the elderly.
Keywords: Balance Performance, Anthropometry, Non-institutionalized Elderly.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2421882 Effect of Muscle Energy Technique on Anterior Pelvic Tilt in Lumbar Spondylosis Patients
Authors: Enas Elsayed Abutaleb, Mohamed Taher Eldesoky, Shahenda Abd El Rasol
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Background: Muscle Energy Techniques (MET) have been widely used by manual therapists over the past years, but still limited research validated its use and there was limited evidence to substantiate the theories used to explain its effects. Objective: To investigate the effect of Muscle Energy Technique (MET) on anterior pelvic tilt in patients with lumbar spondylosis. Design: Randomized controlled trial. Subjects: Thirty patients with anterior pelvic tilt from both sexes were involved, aged between 35 to 50 years old and they were divided into MET and control groups with 15 patients in each. Methods: All patients received 3sessions/week for 4 weeks where the study group received MET, Ultrasound and Infrared, and the control group received U.S and I.R only. Pelvic angle was measured by palpation meter, pain severity by the visual analogue scale and functional disabilities by the Oswestry disability index. Results: Both groups showed significant improvement in all measured variables. The MET group was significantly better than the control group in pelvic angle, pain severity, and functional disability as p-value were (0.001, 0.0001, 0.0001) respectively. Conclusion and implication: the study group fulfilled greater improvement in all measured variables than the control group which implies that application of MET in combination with U.S and I.R were more effective in improving pelvic tilting angle, pain severity and functional disabilities than using electrotherapy only.Keywords: Anterior pelvic tilt, lumbar spondylosis, muscle energy technique exercise, palpation meter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4002881 Analyzing the Impact of Spatio-Temporal Climate Variations on the Rice Crop Calendar in Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad
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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.
Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 902880 Main Variables Competition in DFB Lasers under Dual Optical Injection
Authors: Najm M. Al-Hosiny
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We theoretically investigate the effects of frequency detuning and injection power on the nonlinear dynamics of DFB lasers under dual external optical injection.Keywords: Optical injection, DFB laser, frequency detuning, injection power.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1366879 Opportunities for Precision Feed in Apiculture for Managing the Efficacy of Feed and Medicine
Authors: John Michael Russo
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Honeybees are important to our food system and continue to suffer from high rates of colony loss. Precision feed has brought many benefits to livestock cultivation and these should transfer to apiculture. However, apiculture has unique challenges. The objective of this research is to understand how principles of precision agriculture, applied to apiculture and feed specifically, might effectively improve state-of-the-art cultivation. The methodology surveys apicultural practice to build a model for assessment. First, a review of apicultural motivators is made. Feed method is then evaluated. Finally, precision feed methods are examined as accelerants with potential to advance the effectiveness of feed practice. Six important motivators emerge: colony loss, disease, climate change, site variance, operational costs, and competition. Feed practice itself is used to compensate for environmental variables. The research finds that the current state-of-the-art in apiculture feed focuses on critical challenges in the management of feed schedules which satisfy requirements of the bees, preserve potency, optimize environmental variables, and manage costs. Many of the challenges are most acute when feed is used to dispense medication. Technology such as RNA treatments have even more rigorous demands. Precision feed solutions focus on strategies which accommodate specific needs of individual livestock. A major component is data; they integrate precise data with methods that respond to individual needs. There is enormous opportunity for precision feed to improve apiculture through the integration of precision data with policies to translate data into optimized action in the apiary, particularly through automation.
Keywords: Apiculture, precision apiculture, RNA varroa treatment, honeybee feed applications.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 207878 Psychological Variables of Sport Participation and Involvement among Student-Athletes of Tertiary Institutions in South-West, Nigeria
Authors: Mayowa Adeyeye
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This study was conducted to investigate the psychological variables motivating sport participation and involvement among student-athletes of tertiary institutions in southwest Nigeria. One thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) studentathletes were randomly selected in all sports from nine tertiary institutions in south-west Nigeria. These tertiary institutions include University of Lagos, Lagos State University, Obafemi Awolowo University, Osun State University, University of Ibadan, University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Federal University of Technology Akungba, University of Ilorin, and Kwara State University. The descriptive survey research method was adopted while a self developed validated Likert type questionnaire named Sport Participation Scale (SPS) was used to elicit opinion from respondents. The test-retest reliability value obtained for the instrument, using Pearson Product Moment Correlation Co-efficient was 0.96. Out of the one thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) questionnaire administered, only one thousand two hundred and five (N-1286) were correctly filled, coded and analysed using inferential statistics of Chi-Square (X2) while all the tested hypotheses were set at. 05 alpha level. Based on the findings of this study, the result revealed that several psychological factors influence student athletes to continue participation in sport one which includes love for the game, famous athletes as role model and family support. However, the analysis further revealed that the stipends the student-athletes get from their universities have no influence on their participation and involvement in sport.Keywords: Family support, peer, role model, sport participation, student-athletes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2954877 Crash Severity Modeling in Urban Highways Using Backward Regression Method
Authors: F. Rezaie Moghaddam, T. Rezaie Moghaddam, M. Pasbani Khiavi, M. Ali Ghorbani
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Identifying and classifying intersections according to severity is very important for implementation of safety related counter measures and effective models are needed to compare and assess the severity. Highway safety organizations have considered intersection safety among their priorities. In spite of significant advances in highways safety, the large numbers of crashes with high severities still occur in the highways. Investigation of influential factors on crashes enables engineers to carry out calculations in order to reduce crash severity. Previous studies lacked a model capable of simultaneous illustration of the influence of human factors, road, vehicle, weather conditions and traffic features including traffic volume and flow speed on the crash severity. Thus, this paper is aimed at developing the models to illustrate the simultaneous influence of these variables on the crash severity in urban highways. The models represented in this study have been developed using binary Logit Models. SPSS software has been used to calibrate the models. It must be mentioned that backward regression method in SPSS was used to identify the significant variables in the model. Consider to obtained results it can be concluded that the main factor in increasing of crash severity in urban highways are driver age, movement with reverse gear, technical defect of the vehicle, vehicle collision with motorcycle and bicycle, bridge, frontal impact collisions, frontal-lateral collisions and multi-vehicle crashes in urban highways which always increase the crash severity in urban highways.Keywords: Backward regression, crash severity, speed, urbanhighways.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1903876 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling
Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao
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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1279875 Strategic Thinking to Change Behavior and Improve Sanitation in Jodipan and Kesatrian, Malang, East Java, Indonesia
Authors: Prasanti Widyasih Sarli, Prayatni Soewondo
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Greater access to sanitation in developing countries is urgent. However even though sanitation is crucial, overall budget for sanitation is limited. With this budget limitation, it is important to (1) allocate resources strategically to maximize impact and (2) take into account communal agency to potentially be a source for sanitation improvements. The Jodipan and Kesatrian Project in Malang, Indonesia is an interesting alternative for solving the sanitation problem in which resources were allocated strategically and communal agency was also observed. Although the projects initial goal was only to improve visually the situation in the slums, it became a new tourist destination, and the economic benefit that came with it had an effect also on the change of behavior of the residents and the government towards sanitation. It also grew from only including the Kesatrian Village to expanding to the Jodipan Village in the course of less than a year. To investigate the success of this project, in this paper a descriptive model will be used and data will be drawn from intensive interviews with the initiators of the project, residents affected by the project and government officials. In this research it is argued that three points mark the success of the project: (1) the strategic initial impact due to choice of location, (2) the influx of tourists that triggered behavioral change among residents and, (3) the direct economic impact which ensured its sustainability and growth by gaining government officials support and attention for more public spending in the area for slum development and sanitation improvement.Keywords: Behavior change, sanitation, slum, strategic thinking.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 985