Search results for: regression test.

Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: J. Nesleha, H. Florianova

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The goal of the study is to provide results of a conducted study devoted to financial literacy in the Czech Republic and to introduce a project related to financial education in the Czech Republic. Financial education has become an important part of education in the country, yet it is still neglected on the lowest level of formal education–primary schools. The project is based on investigation of financial literacy on primary schools in the Czech Republic. Consequently, the authors aim to formulate possible amendments related to this type of education. The gained dataset is intended to be used for analysis concerning financial education in the Czech Republic. With regard to used methods, the most important one is regression analysis for disclosure of predictors causing different levels of financial literacy. Furthermore, comparison of different groups is planned, for which t-tests are intended to be used. The study also employs descriptive statistics to introduce basic relationship in the data file.

Keywords: Czech Republic, financial education, financial literacy, primary school, regression analysis.

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Authors: Hannachi Med Tahar, H. Djebaili, B. Daheche

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In this approach, we have tried to describe the flattening of welded tubes, and its experimental application. The test is carried out at the (National product processing company dishes and tubes production). Usually, the final products (tubes) undergo a series of non-destructive inspection online and offline welding, and obviously destructive mechanical testing (bending, flattening, flaring, etc.). For this and for the purpose of implementing the flattening test, which applies to the processing of round tubes in other forms, it took four sections of welded tubes draft (before stretching hot) and welded tubes finished (after drawing hot and annealing), it was also noted the report 'health' flattened tubes must not show or crack or tear. The test is considered poor if it reveals a lack of ductility of the metal.

Keywords: Flattening, destructive testing, tube drafts, finished tube, Castem 2001.

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Authors: Zainudin Arsad, Norul Baine Mat Johor

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Tourism industry is an important sector in Malaysia economy and this motivates the examination of long-run relationships between tourist arrivals from three selected European countries in Malaysia and four possible determinants; relative prices, exchange rates, transportation cost and relative prices of substitute destination. The study utilizes data from January 1999 to September 2008 and employs standard econometric techniques that include unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated demand model indicates that depreciation of local currency and increases in prices at substitute destination have positive impact on tourist arrivals while increase in transportation cost has negative impact on tourist arrivals. In addition, the model suggests that higher rate of increase in local prices relative to prices at tourist country of origin may not deter tourists from coming to Malaysia

Keywords: origin country, unit root test, cointegration test

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Authors: Bao Thach Nguyen, Abbas Mohajerani

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The California Bearing Ratio (CBR) has been acknowledged as an important parameter to characterize the bearing capacity of earth structures, such as earth dams, road embankments, airport runways, bridge abutments and pavements. Technically, the CBR test can be carried out in the laboratory or in the field. The CBR test is time-consuming and is infrequently performed due to the equipment needed and the fact that the field moisture content keeps changing over time. Over the years, many correlations have been developed for the prediction of CBR by various researchers, including the dynamic cone penetrometer, undrained shear strength and Clegg impact hammer. This paper reports and discusses some of the results from a study on the prediction of CBR. In the current study, the CBR test was performed in the laboratory on some finegrained subgrade soils collected from various locations in Victoria. Based on the test results, a satisfactory empirical correlation was found between the CBR and the physical properties of the experimental soils.

Keywords: California bearing ratio, fine-grained soils, pavement, soil physical properties.

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Authors: Khashayar Jafari, Mostafa Jafarian Abyaneh, Vahab Toufigh

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Polymer concrete (PC) is a distinct concrete with superior characteristics in comparison to ordinary cement concrete. It has become well-known for its applications in thin overlays, floors and precast components. In this investigation, the mechanical properties of PC with different epoxy resin contents, ordinary cement concrete (OCC) and lightweight concrete (LC) have been studied under uniaxial compression test. The study involves five types of concrete, with each type being tested four times. Their complete elastic-plastic behavior was compared with each other through the measurement of volumetric strain during the tests. According to the results, PC showed higher strength, ductility and energy absorption with respect to OCC and LC.

Keywords: Polymer concrete, ordinary cement concrete, lightweight concrete, uniaxial compression test, volumetric strain.

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Authors: T. Motsima

Abstract:

The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.

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Authors: M. O. Hamzah, M. R. M. Hasan

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Binder drainage test is widely used to set an upper limit to the design binder content of porous asphalt. However, the presence of high amount of fine particles in the drained binder may affect the accuracy of the test result. This paper presents a study to characterize the composition and particle size distribution of fine particles accumulated in the drained binder. Fine aggregates and filler in the drained binder were extracted using a suitable solvent. Then, wet and dry sieve analysis was carried out to identify the actual composition of the extracted fine aggregates and filler. From the results, almost half of the drained binder consisted of fine aggregates and this significantly affects the accuracy of the design binder content of porous asphalt mix. This simple finding highlights the importance of taking into account the presence of fine aggregates in the calculation of drained binder.

Keywords: Porous asphalt, Binder drainage test, Drained binder, Fine particle proportion

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Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) fuel consumption and air pollutants including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Particulate Matter (PM), and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models.

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Authors: Simin Sadeghi-Saeb

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Metacognitive strategies consistently play important roles in reading comprehension. The metacognitive strategies involve the active monitoring and consequent regulation and orchestration of the cognitive processes in relation to the cognitive objects or data on which they bear. In this paper, the effect of instruction in using metacognitive strategies on reading academic materials, type of metacognitive strategies were mostly used by college university students before and after the instruction and the level they use those strategies before and after the instruction were studied. For these aims, 50 female college students were chosen. Then, they were divided randomly into two groups, experimental and control groups. At first session, students in both groups took the standard TOFEL exam. After the pre-test had been administered, the instruction began. After treatment, a post-test was taken. It is useful to state that after pre-test and post-test the same questionnaire was handed to the students of experimental group. The results of this research show that the instruction of metacognitive strategies has positive effect on the students' scores in reading comprehension tests. Furthermore, it showed that before and after the instruction, the students' usage of metacognitive strategies changed. Also, it demonstrated that the instruction affected the students' level of metacognitive strategies' usage.

Keywords: EFL students, English reading comprehension, instruction, metacognitive strategies.

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Authors: Andreas Theissler, Ian Dear

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In the automotive industry test drives are being conducted during the development of new vehicle models or as a part of quality assurance of series-production vehicles. The communication on the in-vehicle network, data from external sensors, or internal data from the electronic control units is recorded by automotive data loggers during the test drives. The recordings are used for fault analysis. Since the resulting data volume is tremendous, manually analysing each recording in great detail is not feasible. This paper proposes to use machine learning to support domainexperts by preventing them from contemplating irrelevant data and rather pointing them to the relevant parts in the recordings. The underlying idea is to learn the normal behaviour from available recordings, i.e. a training set, and then to autonomously detect unexpected deviations and report them as anomalies. The one-class support vector machine “support vector data description” is utilised to calculate distances of feature vectors. SVDDSUBSEQ is proposed as a novel approach, allowing to classify subsequences in multivariate time series data. The approach allows to detect unexpected faults without modelling effort as is shown with experimental results on recordings from test drives.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, fault detection, test drive analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: F. Rezaie Moghaddam, T. Rezaie Moghaddam, M. Pasbani Khiavi, M. Ali Ghorbani

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Identifying and classifying intersections according to severity is very important for implementation of safety related counter measures and effective models are needed to compare and assess the severity. Highway safety organizations have considered intersection safety among their priorities. In spite of significant advances in highways safety, the large numbers of crashes with high severities still occur in the highways. Investigation of influential factors on crashes enables engineers to carry out calculations in order to reduce crash severity. Previous studies lacked a model capable of simultaneous illustration of the influence of human factors, road, vehicle, weather conditions and traffic features including traffic volume and flow speed on the crash severity. Thus, this paper is aimed at developing the models to illustrate the simultaneous influence of these variables on the crash severity in urban highways. The models represented in this study have been developed using binary Logit Models. SPSS software has been used to calibrate the models. It must be mentioned that backward regression method in SPSS was used to identify the significant variables in the model. Consider to obtained results it can be concluded that the main factor in increasing of crash severity in urban highways are driver age, movement with reverse gear, technical defect of the vehicle, vehicle collision with motorcycle and bicycle, bridge, frontal impact collisions, frontal-lateral collisions and multi-vehicle crashes in urban highways which always increase the crash severity in urban highways.

Keywords: Backward regression, crash severity, speed, urbanhighways.

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Authors: Ponco Iswanto, Mochammad Chasani, Muhammad Hanafi, Iqmal Tahir, Eva Vaulina YD, Harjono, Lestari Solikhati, Winkanda S. Putra, Yayuk Yuliantini

Abstract:

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) approach for discovering novel more active Calanone derivative as anti-leukemia compound has been conducted. There are 6 experimental activities of Calanone compounds against leukemia cell L1210 that are used as material of the research. Calculation of theoretical predictors (independent variables) was performed by AM1 semiempirical method. The QSAR equation is determined by Principle Component Regression (PCR) analysis, with Log IC50 as dependent variable and the independent variables are atomic net charges, dipole moment (μ), and coefficient partition of noctanol/ water (Log P). Three novel Calanone derivatives that obtained by this research have higher activity against leukemia cell L1210 than pure Calanone.

Keywords: AM1 semiempirical calculation, Calanone, Principle Component Regression, QSAR approach.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: Thaniya Kaosol, Narumol Sohgrathok

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In this paper, a Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) test provides a measure of the energy production potential from codigestion between the frozen seafood wastewater and the decanter cake. The experiments were conducted in laboratory-scale. The suitable ratio of the frozen seafood wastewater and the decanter cake was observed in the BMP test. The ratio of the co-digestion between the frozen seafood wastewater and the decanter cake has impacts on the biogas production and energy production potential. The best performance for energy production potential using BMP test observed from the 180 ml of the frozen seafood wastewater and 10 g of the decanter cake ratio. This ratio provided the maximum methane production at 0.351 l CH4/g TCODremoval. The removal efficiencies are 76.18%, 83.55%, 43.16% and 56.76% at TCOD, SCOD, TS and VS, respectively. The result can be concluded that the decanter cake can improve the energy production potential of the frozen seafood wastewater. The energy provides from co-digestion between frozen seafood wastewater and decanter cake approximately 19x109 MJ/year in Thailand.

Keywords: Frozen seafood wastewater, decanter cake, biogas, methane, BMP test.

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Authors: Chang S. Woo, Hyun S. Park, Wan D. Kim

Abstract:

Fatigue life prediction and evaluation are the key technologies to assure the safety and reliability of automotive rubber components. The objective of this study is to develop the fatigue analysis process for vulcanized rubber components, which is applicable to predict fatigue life at initial product design step. Fatigue life prediction methodology of vulcanized natural rubber was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter of maximum strain appearing at the critical location determined from fatigue test. In order to develop an appropriate fatigue damage parameter of the rubber material, a series of displacement controlled fatigue test was conducted using threedimensional dumbbell specimen with different levels of mean displacement. It was shown that the maximum strain was a proper damage parameter, taking the mean displacement effects into account. Nonlinear finite element analyses of three-dimensional dumbbell specimens were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from the uni-axial tension, equi-biaxial tension and planar test. Fatigue analysis procedure employed in this study could be used approximately for the fatigue design.

Keywords: Rubber, Material test, Finite element analysis, Strain, Fatigue test, Fatigue life prediction.

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: Asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index.

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Authors: I. Parkova, A. Vališevskis, A. Viļumsone

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Nocturnal enuresis or bed-wetting is intermittent incontinence during sleep of children after age 5 that may precipitate wide range of behavioral and developmental problems. One of the non-pharmacological treatment methods is the use of a bed-wetting alarm system. In order to improve comfort conditions of nocturnal enuresis alarm system, modular moisture sensor should be replaced by a textile sensor. In this study behavior and moisture detection speed of woven and sewn sensors were compared by analyzing change in electrical resistance after solution (salt water) was dripped on sensor samples. Material of samples has different structure and yarn location, which affects solution detection rate. Sensor system circuit was designed and two sensor tests were performed: system activation test and false alarm test to determine the sensitivity of the system and activation threshold. Sewn sensor had better result in system’s activation test – faster reaction, but woven sensor had better result in system’s false alarm test – it was less sensitive to perspiration simulation. After experiments it was found that the optimum switching threshold is 3V in case of 5V input voltage, which provides protection against false alarms, for example – during intensive sweating.

Keywords: Conductive yarns, moisture textile sensor.

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Authors: M. M. Seraj, M. S. Gadala

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This study presents a systematic analysis of wetted region due to cooling of aluminum plate by water spray impingement with respect to different water flow rates, spray nozzle heights, and subcooling. Unlike jet impingement, the wetting is not commenced upon spray impingement and there is a delay in wetness of hot test surface. After initiation, the wetting (black zone) progresses gradually to cover all test plate and provides efficient cooling in nucleate boiling regime. Generally, spray cooling is found function of spray flow rate, spray-to-surface distance and water subcooling. Wetting delay is decreasing by increasing of spray flow rate until spray impact area is not become bigger that test surface. Otherwise, higher spray flow rate is not practically accelerated start of wetting. Very fast wetting due to spray cooling can be obtained by dense spray (high floe rate) discharged from adjacent nozzle to the test surface. Highly subcooling water spray also triggers earlier wetting of hot aluminum plate.

Keywords: Water spray, wetting, aluminum plate, flow rate.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Lawal, Benjamin O. Olley

Abstract:

Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. Questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. Intervention had significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test (t{7}= 6.01, p<.01) and at follow up (t{7} = 6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14} = - 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14} = -9.56, p<.05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in control group. Drivers in experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers’ sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, Long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, Sexual risk behaviours.

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Authors: Daniel L. Clinciu, Ikrom Abdulaev, Brian D. Oscar

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Various personality profile tests are used to identify personality strengths and limits in individuals, helping both individuals and managers to optimize work and team effort in organizations. One such test, the Hartman’s personality profile, emphasizes four driving "core motives" influenced or affected by both strengths and limitations classified into four colors: Red - motivated by power; Blue - discipline and loyalty; White - peace; and Yellow – fun loving. Two shortcomings of Hartman’s personality test are noted; 1) only one selection for every item / situation allowed and 2) selection of an item / option even if not applicable. A test taker may be as much nurturing as he is opinionated but since “opinionated” seems less attractive the individual would likely select nurturing, causing a misidentification in personality strengths and limits. Since few individuals have a “strong” personality, it is difficult to assess their true personality strengths and limits allowing only one choice or requiring unwanted choices, undermining the potential of the test. We modified Hartman’s personality profile allowing test takers to make either multiple choices for any item / situation or leave them blank if applicable. Sixty-eight participants (38 males and 30 females), 17 - 49 years old, from countries in Asia, Europe, N. America, CIS, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania were included. 58 participants (85.3%) reported the modified test, allowing multiple / no choices better identified their personality strengths and limits, while 10 participants (14.7%) expressed the original (one choice version) was sufficient. The overall results show that our modified test enhanced the identification and balance of core personalities’ strengths and limits, aiding test takers, managers and organizations to better assess individual characteristics, particularly useful in making task-related, teamwork, and management decisions.

Keywords: Organizational behavior, personality tests, personality limitations, personality strengths, task management, team work.

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Authors: Wael M. El-Mamlouk, Metwally A. El-Sharkawy, Hossam. E. Mostafa

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In this paper, we analyze and test a scheme for the estimation of electrical fundamental frequency signals from the harmonic load current and voltage signals. The scheme was based on using two different Multi Layer Artificial Neural Networks (ML-ANN) one for the current and the other for the voltage. This study also analyzes and tests the effect of choosing the optimum artificial neural networks- sizes which determine the quality and accuracy of the estimation of electrical fundamental frequency signals. The simulink tool box of the Matlab program for the simulation of the test system and the test of the neural networks has been used.

Keywords: Harmonics, Neural Networks, Modeling, Simulation, Active filters, electric Networks.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies a simple and powerful nonlinear unit root test to test the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP)  in a sample of 10 East-Asian countries (i.e., China, Hong Kong,  Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan  and Thailand) over the period of March 1985 to September 2008. The empirical results indicate that PPP holds true for half of these 10  East-Asian countries under study, and the adjustment toward PPP is found to be nonlinear and in an asymmetric way. 

 

Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity, East-Asian Countries, Nonlinear Unit Root Test, Asymmetry.

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Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

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With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: Traffic App, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

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This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road(18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road(7.62%). The result from Dusit District, onlyareasresponsibleofSamsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R² = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Ŷ=-7.977+0.044X6

Keywords: Form of Traffic Distribution, Environmental Factors of road, Traffic Accidents, Dusit District.

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Authors: Paramet Nualmuenwai, Chutima Prommak

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This paper presents the IP traffic analysis. The traffic was collected from the network of Suranaree University of Technology using the software based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). In particular, we analyze the distribution of the aggregated traffic during the hours of peak load and light load. The traffic profiles including the parameters described the traffic distributions were derived. From the statistical analysis applying three different methods, including the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson Darling test, and Chi-Squared test, we found that the IP traffic distribution is a non-normal distribution and the distributions during the peak load and the light load are different. The experimental study and analysis show high uncertainty of the IP traffic.

Keywords: IP traffic analysis, IP traffic distribution, Traffic uncertainty

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Abdul Hadi Abdul Razak, Mohd Hairy Manap

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to highlight the design and development of an educational game prototype as an evaluation instrument for the Malaysia driving license static test. This educational game brings gaming technology into the conventional objective static test to make it more effective, real and interesting. From the feeling of realistic, the future driver can learn something, memorized and use it in the real life. The current online objective static test only make the user memorized the answer without knowing and understand the true purpose of the question. Therefore, in real life, they will not behave as expected due to behavior and moral lacking. This prototype has been developed inform of multiple-choice questions integrated with 3D gaming environment to make it simulate the real environment and scenarios. Based on the testing conducted, the respondent agrees with the use of this game prototype it can increase understanding and promote obligation towards traffic rules.

Keywords: Educational game, evaluation instrument, game, game prototype.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the P^th percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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