Search results for: default risk

Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

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Breast cancer is in the top rate of cancer. We analyzed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer and finally we reviewed 25 article that 320 patient and 320 control which enrolled to our study. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman which is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulates the activities of growth steroids, obesity has confirmed as a risk factor for breast cancer. Our study and other studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And it can be prevented with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: Breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight.

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Authors: Ali Mohaghar, Iman Ghasemian Sahebi, Alireza Arab

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In the last decades, increasing in human and natural disaster occurrence had very irreparable effects on human life. Hence, one of the important issues in humanitarian supply chain management is identifying and prioritizing the different risks and finding suitable solutions for encountering them at the time of disaster occurrence. This study is an attempt to provide a comprehensive review of humanitarian supply chain risks in a case study of Tehran Red Crescent Societies. For this purpose, Best-Worst method (BWM) has been used for analyzing the risks of the humanitarian supply chain. 22 risks of the humanitarian supply chain were identified based on the literature and interviews with four experts. According to BWM method, the importance of each risk was calculated. The findings showed that culture contexts, little awareness of people, and poor education system are the most important humanitarian supply chain risks. This research provides a useful guideline for managers so that they can benefit from the results to prioritize their solutions.

Keywords: Best worst method, humanitarian logistics, humanitarian supply chain, risk management.

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Authors: F. May Liou, Y. C. Edwin Tang

Abstract:

This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework to examine competitive disadvantage of banks that suffer from poor performance. Banks generate revenues mainly from the interest rate spread on taking deposits and making loans while collecting fees in the process. To maximize firm value, banks seek loan growth and expense control while managing risk associated with loans with respect to non-performing borrowers or narrowing interest spread between assets and liabilities. Competitive disadvantage refers to the failure to access imitable resources and to build managing capabilities to gain sustainable return given appropriate risk management. This paper proposes a four-quadrant framework of organizational typology is subsequently proposed to examine the features of competitive disadvantage in the banking sector. A resource configuration model, which is extracted from CAMEL indicators to examine the underlying features of bank failures.

Keywords: Bank failure, CAMEL, competitive disadvantage, resource configuration.

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Authors: R. Mehra

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The measurements of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K using gamma spectrometry and radon concentration and exhalation rates measurements using solid state nuclear track (LR-115, Type-II plastic) detectors are used to asses a first order exposure risk for the persons residing in Fatehbad and Hissar districts of Western Haryana, India. The concentration of Radium, Thorium and Potassium in the soil samples varies from 13.37 Bq m-3 to 24.67 Bq m-3, 34.67 Bq m-3 to 67.34 Bq m-3 and 298.78 Bq m-3 to 405.67 Bq m-3 respectively with average values of 18.78, 47.35 and 361.57 Bq m-3 respectively. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq) calculated for the same soil samples varies from 92.72 Bq m-3 to 140.6 Bq m-3 with an average value of 111.80 Bq m-3. The values of absorbed dose and annual effective dose (indoors and outdoors) are found to vary from 44.18 nGy h-1 to 65.23 nGy h-1, 0.22 mSv y-1 to 0.32 mSv y-1 and 0.05 mSv y-1 to 0.08 mSv y-1 respectively. The radon concentration and exhalation rates have also been reported. The radium equivalent activities in all the soil samples were found to be lower than the limit (370 Bq kg-1) set in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report and the value of Hex in all the samples is less than unity.

Keywords: Gamma ray spectrometry, dose, radon, exhalationrate.

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Authors: N.M. Museisi

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This is a cross-cultural study that determines South African multinational enterprises (MNEs) entry strategies as they invest in Africa. An integrated theoretical framework comprising the transaction cost theory, Uppsala model, eclectic paradigm and the distance framework was adopted. A sample of 40 South African MNEs with 415 existing FDI entries in Africa was drawn. Using an ordered logistic regression model, the impact of culture on the choice of degree of control by South African MNEs in Africa was determined. Cultural distance was one of significant factors that influenced South African MNEs- choice of degree of control. Furthermore, South African MNEs are risk averse in all countries in Africa but minimize the risks differently across sectors. Service sectors chooses to own their subsidiaries 100% and avoid dealing with the locals while manufacturing, resources and construction choose to have a local partner to share the risk.

Keywords: Cross-cultural, emerging MNEs, entry strategies, internationalization.

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Authors: Anca E. Gurzau, Alexandru Coman, Eugen S. Gurzau, Marinela Penes, Daniela Dumitrescu, DorinMarchean, Ioan Chera

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The environment pollution with pesticides and heavy metals is a recognized problem nowadays, with extension to the global scale the tendency of amplification. Even with all the progress in the environmental field, both in the emphasize of the effect of the pollutants upon health, the linked studies environment-health are insufficient, not only in Romania but all over the world also. We aim to describe the particular situation in Romania regarding the uncontrolled use of pesticides, to identify and evaluate the risk zones for health and the environment in Romania, with the final goal of designing adequate programs for reduction and control of the risk sources. An exploratory study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the pesticide use problem in a population living in Saliste, a rural setting in Transylvania, Romania. The significant stakeholders in Saliste region were interviewed and a sample from the population living in Saliste area was selected to fill in a designed questionnaire. All the selected participants declared that they used pesticides in their activities for more than one purpose. They declared they annually applied pesticides for a period of time between 11 and 30 years, from 5 to 9 days per year on average, mainly on crops situated at some distance from the houses but high risk behavior was identified as the volunteers declared the use of pesticides in the backyard gardens, near their homes, where children were playing. The pesticide applicators did not have the necessary knowledge about safety and exposure. The health data must be correlated with exposure biomarkers in attempt to identify the possible health effects of the pesticides exposure. Future plans include educational campaigns to raise the awareness of the population on the danger of uncontrolled use of pesticides.

Keywords: Pesticides, health effects, Romania, Saliste.

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Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari

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One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.

Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.

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Authors: Yıldırım I. Tosun, Halim Cevizci, Hakan Ceylan

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By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Keywords: Slope stability, GEO5, rockfills, rock stability.

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Authors: Dragan Kljajic, Nikola Djuric, Karolina Kasas-Lazetic, Danka Antic

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Wireless communications have been expanded very fast in recent decades. This technology relies on an extensive network of base stations and antennas, using radio frequency signals to transmit information. Devices that use wireless communication, while offering various services, basically act as sources of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields (EMF). Such devices are permanently present in human vicinity and almost constantly radiate, causing EMF pollution of the environment. This fact has initiated development of modern systems for observation of the EMF pollution, as well as for risk assessment. This paper presents the Serbian electromagnetic field monitoring network – SEMONT, designed for automated, remote and continuous broadband monitoring of EMF in the environment. Measurement results of the SEMONT monitoring at one of the test locations, within the main campus of the University of Novi Sad, are presented and discussed, along with corresponding exposure assessment of the general population, regarding the Serbian legislation.

Keywords: EMF monitoring, exposure assessment, sensor nodes, wireless network.

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Authors: Aumnad Phdungsilp, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

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Decision support based upon risk analysis into comparison of the electricity generation from different renewable energy technologies can provide information about their effects on the environment and society. The aim of this paper is to develop the assessment framework regarding risks to health and environment, and the society-s benefits of the electric power plant generation from different renewable sources. The multicriteria framework to multiattribute risk analysis technique and the decision analysis interview technique are applied in order to support the decisionmaking process for the implementing renewable energy projects to the Bangkok case study. Having analyses the local conditions and appropriate technologies, five renewable power plants are postulated as options. As this work demonstrates, the analysis can provide a tool to aid decision-makers for achieving targets related to promote sustainable energy system.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Bangkok, MultiattributeRisk Analysis, Renewable Energy Technology.

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk., L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: Decision making support systems, Emergency risk assessment, Natural and anthropogenic safety, On-line control, Territory.

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, K. Czarnocki, E. Błazik-Borowa

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People on construction scaffoldings work in dynamically changing, often unfavourable climate. Additionally, this kind of work is performed on low stiffness structures at high altitude, which increases the risk of accidents. It is therefore desirable to define the parameters of the work environment that contribute to increasing the construction worker occupational safety level. The aim of this article is to present how changes in microclimate parameters on scaffolding can impact the development of dangerous situations and accidents. For this purpose, indicators based on the human thermal balance were used. However, use of this model under construction conditions is often burdened by significant errors or even impossible to implement due to the lack of precise data. Thus, in the target model, the modified parameter was used – apparent environmental temperature. Apparent temperature in the proposed Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model has been a perceived outdoor temperature, caused by the combined effects of air temperature, radiative temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (wind chill index, heat index). In the paper, correlations between component factors and apparent temperature for facade scaffolding with a width of 24.5 m and a height of 42.3 m, located at south-west side of building are presented. The distribution of factors on the scaffolding has been used to evaluate fitting of the microclimate model. The results of the studies indicate that observed ranges of apparent temperature on the scaffolds frequently results in a worker’s inability to adapt. This leads to reduced concentration and increased fatigue, adversely affects health, and consequently increases the risk of dangerous situations and accidental injuries

Keywords: Apparent temperature, health, safety work, scaffoldings.

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Authors: Z. Nurzaireena, K. Azalea, T. Azirawaty, S. Jameela, G. Muralitharan

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The aim of this study is the review of the management practices of sickle cell disease patients during pregnancy, as well as the maternal and neonatal outcome at Ampang Hospital, Selangor. The study consisted of a review of pregnant patients with sickle cell disease under follow up at the Hematology Clinic, Ampang Hospital over the last seven years to assess their management and maternal-fetal outcome. The results of the review show that Ampang Hospital is considered the public hematology centre for sickle cell disease and had successfully managed three pregnancies throughout the last seven years. Patients’ presentations, managements and maternal-fetal outcome were compared and reviewed for academic improvements. All three patients were seen very early in their pregnancy and had been given a regime of folic acid, antibiotics and thrombo-prophylactic drugs. Close monitoring of maternal and fetal well being was done by the hematologists and obstetricians. Among the patients, there were multiple admissions during the pregnancy for either a painful sickle cell bone crisis, haemolysis following an infection and anemia requiring phenotype- matched blood and exchange transfusions. Broad spectrum antibiotics coverage during and infection, hydration, pain management and venous-thrombolism prophylaxis were mandatory. The pregnancies managed to reach near term in the third trimester but all required emergency caesarean section for obstetric indications. All pregnancies resulted in live births with good fetal outcome. During post partum all were nursed closely in the high dependency units for further complications and were discharged well. Post partum follow up and contraception counseling was comprehensively given for future pregnancies. Sickle cell disease is uncommonly seen in the East, especially in the South East Asian region, yet more cases are seen in the current decade due to improved medical expertise and advance medical laboratory technologies. Pregnancy itself is a risk factor for sickle cell patients as increased thrombosis event and risk of infections can lead to multiple crisis, haemolysis, anemia and vaso-occlusive complications including eclampsia, cerebrovasular accidents and acute bone pain. Patients mostly require multiple blood product transfusions thus phenotype-matched blood is required to reduce the risk of alloimmunozation. Emphasizing the risks and complications in preconception counseling and establishing an ultimate pregnancy plan would probably reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality to the mother and unborn child. Early management for risk of infection, thromboembolic events and adequate hydration is mandatory. A holistic approach involving multidisciplinary team care between the hematologist, obstetricians, anesthetist, neonatologist and close nursing care for both mother and baby would ensure the best outcome. In conclusion, sickle cell disease by itself is a high risk medical condition and pregnancy would further amplify the risk. Thus, close monitoring with combine multidisciplinary care, counseling and educating the patients are crucial in achieving the safe outcome.

Keywords: Anemia, haemoglobinopathies, pregnancy, sickle cell disease.

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Authors: Midiya Khademi, Ali Nikoo, Shabnam Rahimnezhad Baghche Jooghi

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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death globally. Most CVDs can be prevented by avoiding habitual risk factors. Separate from the habitual risk factors, there are some inherent factors in each individual that can increase the risk potential of CVDs. Vessel shapes and geometry are influential factors, having great impact on the blood flow and the hemodynamic behavior of the vessels. In the present study, the influence of bifurcation angle on blood flow characteristics is studied. In order to approach this topic, by simplifying the details of the bifurcation, three models with angles 30°, 45°, and 60° were created, then by using CFD analysis, the response of these models for stable flow and pulsatile flow was studied. In the conducted simulation in order to eliminate the influence of other geometrical factors, only the angle of the bifurcation was changed and other parameters remained constant during the research. Simulations are conducted under dynamic and stable condition. In the stable flow simulation, a steady velocity of 0.17 m/s at the inlet plug was maintained and in dynamic simulations, a typical LAD flow waveform is implemented. The results show that the bifurcation angle has an influence on the maximum speed of the flow. In the stable flow condition, increasing the angle lead to decrease the maximum flow velocity. In the dynamic flow simulations, increasing the bifurcation angle lead to an increase in the maximum velocity. Since blood flow has pulsatile characteristics, using a uniform velocity during the simulations can lead to a discrepancy between the actual results and the calculated results.

Keywords: Coronary artery, cardiovascular disease, bifurcation, atherosclerosis, CFD, artery wall shear stress.

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: Risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk.

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Authors: S. Pullteap, M. Pathomsuriyaporn

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In this article, a study of employee’s opinion to the factors that affect to the flood preventive and the corrective action plan in an electronic industry at the Sharp Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. has been investigated. The surveys data of 175 workers and supervisors have, however, been selected for data analysis. The results is shown that the employees emphasize about the needs in a subsidy at the time of disaster at high levels of 77.8%, as the plan focusing on flood prevention of the rehabilitation equipment is valued at the intermediate level, which is 79.8%. Demonstration of the hypothesis has found that the different education levels has thus been affected to the needs factor at the flood disaster time. Moreover, most respondents give priority to flood disaster risk management factor. Consequently, we found that the flood prevention plan is valued at high level, especially on information monitoring, which is 93.4% for the supervisor item. The respondents largely assume that the flood will have impacts on the industry, up to 80%, thus to focus on flood management plans is enormous.

Keywords: Flood prevention plan, flood event, electronic industrial plant, disaster, risk management.

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

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This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑₇ PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g⁻¹, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area.  However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority. 

Keywords: Residue, Risk assessment, PBDEs, Sediment.

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Authors: S. Fallah, M. Seifi, M. Firoozrai, T. Godarzi, M. Jafarzadeh, L. H. Ghohari

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The ε4 allele of the ε2, ε3 and ε4 protein isoform polymorphism in the gene encoding apolipoprotein E (Apo E) has previously been associated with increased cardiac artery disease (CAD); therefore to investigate the significance of this polymorphism in pathogenesis of CAD in Iranian patients with stenosis and control subjects. To investigate the association between  Apo E polymorphism and coronary artery disease we performed a comparative case control study of the frequency of Apo E  polymorphism in One hundred CAD patients with stenosis who underwent coronary angiography (>50% stenosis) and 100 control subjects (<10% stenosis). The Apo E alleles and genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). We observed an association between the Apo E polymorphism and CAD in this study. These data suggest that the Apo ε4 and ε2 alleles increase the risk for CAD in Iranian population (χ2 =4.26, p= 0.05, OR=2 and χ2 =0.38, p=0.53, OR=1.2). These results suggest that ε4 and ε2 alleles are risk factors for stenosis.

Keywords: Arterial blood vessels, atherosclerosis, cholesterol.

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Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

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The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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Authors: Maria Luskova, Maria Hudakova, Katarina Buganova

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Established objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship, forming the business organically related whole, are the necessary condition of successful entrepreneurial activities. Objective preconditions for entrepreneurship are developed by market economy that should stimulate entrepreneurship by allowing the use of economic opportunities for all those who want to do business in respective field while providing guarantees to all owners and creating a stable business environment for entrepreneurs. Subjective preconditions of entrepreneurship are formed primarily by personal characteristics of the entrepreneur. These are his properties, abilities, skills, physiological and psychological preconditions which may be inherited, inborn or sequentially developed and obtained during his life on the basis of education and influences of surrounding environment. The paper is dealing with issues of objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship and provides their analysis in view of the current situation in Slovakia. It presents risks of the business environment in Slovakia that the Slovak managers considered the most significant in 2014 and defines the dominant attributes of the entrepreneur in the current business environment in Slovakia.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, innovations, opportunity, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Siti Juryiah Mohd Khalid, Norazlina Dol

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Academic libraries in Malaysia are still not prepared for disaster even though several occasions have been reported. The study sets out to assess the current status of preparedness in disaster management among Malaysian academic libraries in the State of Selangor and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. To obtain a base level of knowledge on disaster preparedness of current practices, a questionnaire was distributed to chief librarians or their assignees in charge of disaster or emergency preparedness at 40 academic libraries and 34 responses were received. The study revolved around the current status of preparedness, on various issues including existence of disaster preparedness plan among academic libraries in Malaysia, disaster experiences by the academic libraries, funding, risk assessment activities and involvement of library staff in disaster management. Frequency and percentage tables were used in the analysis of the data collected. Some of the academic libraries under study have experienced one form of disaster or the other. Most of the academic libraries do not have a written disaster preparedness plan. The risk assessments and staff involvement in disaster preparedness by these libraries were generally adequate.

Keywords: Academic libraries, disaster preparedness plan, disaster management, emergency plan.

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Authors: A. J. Al-Graitti, G. A. Khalid, P. Berthelson, A. Mason-Jones, R. Prabhu, M. D. Jones

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Motor vehicle related pedestrian road traffic collisions are a major road safety challenge, since they are a leading cause of death and serious injury worldwide, contributing to a third of the global disease burden. The auto rickshaw, which is a common form of urban transport in many developing countries, plays a major transport role, both as a vehicle for hire and for private use. The most common auto rickshaws are quite unlike ‘typical’ four-wheel motor vehicle, being typically characterised by three wheels, a non-tilting sheet-metal body or open frame construction, a canvas roof and side curtains, a small drivers’ cabin, handlebar controls and a passenger space at the rear. Given the propensity, in developing countries, for auto rickshaws to be used in mixed cityscapes, where pedestrians and vehicles share the roadway, the potential for auto rickshaw impacts with pedestrians is relatively high. Whilst auto rickshaws are used in some Western countries, their limited number and spatial separation from pedestrian walkways, as a result of city planning, has not resulted in significant accident statistics. Thus, auto rickshaws have not been subject to the vehicle impact related pedestrian crash kinematic analyses and/or injury mechanics assessment, typically associated with motor vehicle development in Western Europe, North America and Japan. This study presents a parametric analysis of auto rickshaw related pedestrian impacts by computational simulation, using a Finite Element model of an auto rickshaw and an LS-DYNA 50^th percentile male Hybrid III Anthropometric Test Device (dummy). Parametric variables include auto rickshaw impact velocity, auto rickshaw impact region (front, centre or offset) and relative pedestrian impact position (front, side and rear). The output data of each impact simulation was correlated against reported injury metrics, Head Injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Neck injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Abbreviated Injury Scale and reported risk level and adds greater understanding to the issue of auto rickshaw related pedestrian injury risk. The parametric analyses suggest that pedestrians are subject to a relatively high risk of injury during impacts with an auto rickshaw at velocities of 20 km/h or greater, which during some of the impact simulations may even risk fatalities. The present study provides valuable evidence for informing a series of recommendations and guidelines for making the auto rickshaw safer during collisions with pedestrians. Whilst it is acknowledged that the present research findings are based in the field of safety engineering and may over represent injury risk, compared to “Real World” accidents, many of the simulated interactions produced injury response values significantly greater than current threshold curves and thus, justify their inclusion in the study. To reduce the injury risk level and increase the safety of the auto rickshaw, there should be a reduction in the velocity of the auto rickshaw and, or, consideration of engineering solutions, such as retro fitting injury mitigation technologies to those auto rickshaw contact regions which are the subject of the greatest risk of producing pedestrian injury.

Keywords: Auto Rickshaw, finite element analysis, injury risk level, LS-DYNA, pedestrian impact.

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Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: Accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum, New Zealand.

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Authors: M. Nosik, I. Rymanova, N. Adamovich, S. Sevostyanihin, K. Ryzhov, Y. Kuimova, A. Kravtchenko, N. Sergeeva, A. Sobkin

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HIV and Tuberculosis (TB) infections each speed the other's progress. HIV-infection increases the risk of TB disease. At the same time, TB infection is associated with clinical progression of HIV-infection. HIV+TB co-infected patients are also at higher risk of acquiring new opportunistic infections. An important feature of disease progression and clinical outcome is the innate and acquired immune responses. HIV and TB, however, have a spectrum of dysfunctions of the immune response. As cytokines play a crucial role in the immunopathology of both infections, it is important to study immune interactions in patients with dual infection HIV+TB. Plasma levels of proinflammatory cytokines IL-2, IFN-γ and immunoregulating cytokines IL-4, IL-10 were evaluated in 75 patients with dual infection HIV+TB, 58 patients with HIV monoinfection and 50 patients with TB monoinfection who were previously naïve for HAART. The decreased levels of IL-2, IFN-γ, IL-4 and IL-10 were observed in patients with dual infection HIV+TB in comparison with patients who had only HIV or TB which means the profound suppression of Th1 and Th2 cytokine secretion. Thus, those cytokines could possibly serve as immunological markers of progression of HIV-infection in patients with TB.

Keywords: HIV, Tuberculosis, TB, HIV associated with TB, Th1/ Th2 cytokine expression.

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Authors: M. Okan Tasar

Abstract:

Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis.

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Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: Forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody.

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Authors: Firas Salih, Luban Hameed, Afaf Kamil, Armin Bolz

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Diagnostic and detection of the arterial stiffness is very important; which gives indication of the associated increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. To make a cheap and easy method for general screening technique to avoid the future cardiovascular complexes , due to the rising of the arterial stiffness ; a proposed algorithm depending on photoplethysmogram to be used. The photoplethysmograph signals would be processed in MATLAB. The signal will be filtered, baseline wandering removed, peaks and valleys detected and normalization of the signals should be achieved .The area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmogram pulse curve is calculated using trapezoidal algorithm ; then will used in cooperation with other parameters such as age, height, blood pressure in neural network for arterial stiffness detection. The Neural network were implemented with sensitivity of 80%, accuracy 85% and specificity of 90% were got from the patients data. It is concluded that neural network can detect the arterial STIFFNESS depending on risk factor parameters.

Keywords: Arterial stiffness, area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmograph pulse, neural network

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Authors: Hakim Aguedal, Hafida Hentit, Abdallah Aziz, Djillali Rida Merouani, Abdelkader Iddou

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The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants which can cause a serious menace. To prevent this risk and to protect the groundwater, we proceeded in this study to test the reliability of a biosolid as barrier to prevent the migration of very dangerous pollutants as ‘Cadmium’ through the different soil layers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effect of several parameters such as: turbidity (different cycle of Hydration/Dehydration), rainfall, effect of initial Cd(II) concentration and the type of soil. These parameters allow us to find the most effective manner to integrate this barrier in the soil. From the results obtained, we found a significant effect of the barrier. Indeed, the recorded passing quantities are lowest for the highest rainfall; we noted also that the barrier has a better affinity towards higher concentrations; the most retained amounts of cadmium has been in the top layer of the two types of soil tested, while the lowest amounts of cadmium are recorded in the bottom layers of soils.

Keywords: Adsorption of Cadmium, Barrier, Groundwater Pollution, Protection.

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Authors: Haidar Safa, Hassan Artail, Ahmad Mehio, Hicham Zahr, Ziad Matragi

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The Mobile IP Standard has been developed to support mobility over the Internet. This standard contains several drawbacks as in the cases where packets are routed via sub-optimal paths and significant amount of signaling messages is generated due to the home registration procedure which keeps the network aware of the current location of the mobile nodes. Recently, a dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy for mobile IP networks (DHMIP) has been proposed to reduce home registrations costs. However, this strategy induces a packet delivery delay and increases the risk of packet loss. In this paper, we propose an enhanced version of the dynamic hierarchical strategy that reduces the packet delivery delay and minimizes the risk of packet loss. Preliminary results obtained from simulations are promising. They show that the enhanced version outperforms the original dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy version.

Keywords: Location management, Mobile IP (MIP), Home Agent, Foreign Agent.

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