Search results for: large language models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5206

Search results for: large language models

4876 Performance Evaluation of Acoustic-Spectrographic Voice Identification Method in Native and Non-Native Speech

Authors: E. Krasnova, E. Bulgakova, V. Shchemelinin

Abstract:

The paper deals with acoustic-spectrographic voice identification method in terms of its performance in non-native language speech. Performance evaluation is conducted by comparing the result of the analysis of recordings containing native language speech with recordings that contain foreign language speech. Our research is based on Tajik and Russian speech of Tajik native speakers due to the character of the criminal situation with drug trafficking. We propose a pilot experiment that represents a primary attempt enter the field.

Keywords: Speaker identification, acoustic-spectrographic method, non-native speech.

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4875 Massive Open Online Course about Content Language Integrated Learning: A Methodological Approach for Content Language Integrated Learning Teachers

Authors: M. Zezou

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the design of a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) about Content Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) and more specifically about how teachers can use CLIL as an educational approach incorporating technology in their teaching as well. All the four weeks of the MOOC will be presented and a step-by-step analysis of each lesson will be offered. Additionally, the paper includes detailed lesson plans about CLIL lessons with proposed CLIL activities and games in which technology plays a central part. The MOOC is structured based on certain criteria, in order to ensure success, as well as a positive experience that the learners need to have after completing this MOOC. It addresses to all language teachers who would like to implement CLIL into their teaching. In other words, it presents the methodology that needs to be followed so as to successfully carry out a CLIL lesson and achieve the learning objectives set at the beginning of the course. Firstly, in this paper, it is very important to give the definitions of MOOCs and LMOOCs, as well as to explore the difference between a structure-based MOOC (xMOOC) and a connectivist MOOC (cMOOC) and present the criteria of a successful MOOC. Moreover, the notion of CLIL will be explored, as it is necessary to fully understand this concept before moving on to the design of the MOOC. Onwards, the four weeks of the MOOC will be introduced as well as lesson plans will be presented: The type of the activities, the aims of each activity and the methodology that teachers have to follow. Emphasis will be placed on the role of technology in foreign language learning and on the ways in which we can involve technology in teaching a foreign language. Final remarks will be made and a summary of the main points will be offered at the end.

Keywords: Content language integrated learning, connectivist massive open online course, lesson plan, language MOOC, massive open online course criteria, massive open online course, technology, structure-based massive open online course.

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4874 Modeling and Simulation for Physical Vapor Deposition: Multiscale Model

Authors: Jürgen Geiser, Robert Röhle

Abstract:

In this paper we present modeling and simulation for physical vapor deposition for metallic bipolar plates. In the models we discuss the application of different models to simulate the transport of chemical reactions of the gas species in the gas chamber. The so called sputter process is an extremely sensitive process to deposit thin layers to metallic plates. We have taken into account lower order models to obtain first results with respect to the gas fluxes and the kinetics in the chamber. The model equations can be treated analytically in some circumstances and complicated multi-dimensional models are solved numerically with a software-package (UG unstructed grids, see [1]). Because of multi-scaling and multi-physical behavior of the models, we discuss adapted schemes to solve more accurate in the different domains and scales. The results are discussed with physical experiments to give a valid model for the assumed growth of thin layers.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion equations, multi-scale problem, physical vapor deposition, reaction equations, splitting methods.

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4873 On the Study of the Electromagnetic Scattering by Large Obstacle Based on the Method of Auxiliary Sources

Authors: Sami Hidouri, Taoufik Aguili

Abstract:

We consider fast and accurate solutions of scattering problems by large perfectly conducting objects (PEC) formulated by an optimization of the Method of Auxiliary Sources (MAS). We present various techniques used to reduce the total computational cost of the scattering problem. The first technique is based on replacing the object by an array of finite number of small (PEC) object with the same shape. The second solution reduces the problem on considering only the half of the object.These t

Keywords: Method of Auxiliary Sources, Scattering, large object, RCS, computational resources.

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4872 Effects of Multimedia-based Instructional Designs for Arabic Language Learning among Pupils of Different Achievement Levels

Authors: Aldalalah, M. Osamah, Soon Fook Fong & Ababneh, W. Ziad

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of modality principles in instructional software among first grade pupils- achievements in the learning of Arabic Language. Two modes of instructional software were systematically designed and developed, audio with images (AI), and text with images (TI). The quasi-experimental design was used in the study. The sample consisted of 123 male and female pupils from IRBED Education Directorate, Jordan. The pupils were randomly assigned to any one of the two modes. The independent variable comprised the two modes of the instructional software, the students- achievement levels in the Arabic Language class and gender. The dependent variable was the achievements of the pupils in the Arabic Language test. The theoretical framework of this study was based on Mayer-s Cognitive Theory of Multimedia Learning. Four hypotheses were postulated and tested. Analyses of Variance (ANOVA) showed that pupils using the (AI) mode performed significantly better than those using (TI) mode. This study concluded that the audio with images mode was an important aid to learning as compared to text with images mode.

Keywords: Cognitive theory of Multimedia Learning, ModalityPrinciple, Multimedia, Arabic Language learning

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4871 Language and Retrieval Accuracy

Authors: Ahmed Abdelali, Jim Cowie, Hamdy S. Soliman

Abstract:

One of the major challenges in the Information Retrieval field is handling the massive amount of information available to Internet users. Existing ranking techniques and strategies that govern the retrieval process fall short of expected accuracy. Often relevant documents are buried deep in the list of documents returned by the search engine. In order to improve retrieval accuracy we examine the issue of language effect on the retrieval process. Then, we propose a solution for a more biased, user-centric relevance for retrieved data. The results demonstrate that using indices based on variations of the same language enhances the accuracy of search engines for individual users.

Keywords: Information Search and Retrieval, LanguageVariants, Search Engine, Retrieval Accuracy.

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4870 Managing HR Knowledge in a Large Privately Owned Enterprise: An Empirical Case Analysis

Authors: Cindy Wang-Cowham, Judy Ningyu Tang

Abstract:

The paper contributes towards the development of scarce literature on HR knowledge management. Drawing literature from knowledge management, the authors define the meaning of HR knowledge and propose that there are social mechanisms in organizations that facilitate the management and sharing of HR knowledge. Instead of investigating the subject in large multinational corporations, the present paper examines it in a large Chinese privately owned enterprise, which has an international standing. The main finding of the case analysis is that communication and feedback plays a pivotal role when managing HR knowledge. Social mechanisms can stimulate the communication and feedback between employees, thus facilitate knowledge exchange.

Keywords: HR knowledge, knowledge management, large privately owned enterprises, China.

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4869 Efficient Large Numbers Karatsuba-Ofman Multiplier Designs for Embedded Systems

Authors: M.Machhout, M.Zeghid, W.El hadj youssef, B.Bouallegue, A.Baganne, R.Tourki

Abstract:

Long number multiplications (n ≥ 128-bit) are a primitive in most cryptosystems. They can be performed better by using Karatsuba-Ofman technique. This algorithm is easy to parallelize on workstation network and on distributed memory, and it-s known as the practical method of choice. Multiplying long numbers using Karatsuba-Ofman algorithm is fast but is highly recursive. In this paper, we propose different designs of implementing Karatsuba-Ofman multiplier. A mixture of sequential and combinational system design techniques involving pipelining is applied to our proposed designs. Multiplying large numbers can be adapted flexibly to time, area and power criteria. Computationally and occupation constrained in embedded systems such as: smart cards, mobile phones..., multiplication of finite field elements can be achieved more efficiently. The proposed designs are compared to other existing techniques. Mathematical models (Area (n), Delay (n)) of our proposed designs are also elaborated and evaluated on different FPGAs devices.

Keywords: finite field, Karatsuba-Ofman, long numbers, multiplication, mathematical model, recursivity.

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4868 Compressible Lattice Boltzmann Method for Turbulent Jet Flow Simulations

Authors: K. Noah, F.-S. Lien

Abstract:

In Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), there are a variety of numerical methods, of which some depend on macroscopic model representatives. These models can be solved by finite-volume, finite-element or finite-difference methods on a microscopic description. However, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is considered to be a mesoscopic particle method, with its scale lying between the macroscopic and microscopic scales. The LBM works well for solving incompressible flow problems, but certain limitations arise from solving compressible flows, particularly at high Mach numbers. An improved lattice Boltzmann model for compressible flow problems is presented in this research study. A higher-order Taylor series expansion of the Maxwell equilibrium distribution function is used to overcome limitations in LBM when solving high-Mach-number flows. Large eddy simulation (LES) is implemented in LBM to simulate turbulent jet flows. The results have been validated with available experimental data for turbulent compressible free jet flow at subsonic speeds.

Keywords: Compressible lattice Boltzmann metho-, large eddy simulation, turbulent jet flows.

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4867 E-government Security Modeling: Explaining Main Factors and Analysing Existing Models

Authors: N. Alharbi

Abstract:

E-government is becoming more important these days. However, the adoption of e-government is often slowed down by technical and non-technical security factors. Nowadays, there many security models that can make the e-government services more secure. This paper will explain the main security factors that affected the level of e-government security. Moreover, it will also analyse current existing models. Finally, the paper will suggest a comprehensive security model that will contain most of technical and non-technical factors.

Keywords: E-government, technical, non-technical, security model.

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4866 Assessing Semantic Consistency of Business Process Models

Authors: Bernhard G. Humm, Janina Fengel

Abstract:

Business process modeling has become an accepted means for designing and describing business operations. Thereby, consistency of business process models, i.e., the absence of modeling faults, is of upmost importance to organizations. This paper presents a concept and subsequent implementation for detecting faults in business process models and for computing a measure of their consistency. It incorporates not only syntactic consistency but also semantic consistency, i.e., consistency regarding the meaning of model elements from a business perspective.

Keywords: Business process modeling, model analysis, semantic consistency, Semantic Web

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4865 Calculating Strain Energy in Multi-Surface Models of Cyclic Plasticity

Authors: S. Shahrooi, I. H. Metselaar, Z. Huda

Abstract:

When considering the development of constitutive equations describing the behavior of materials under cyclic plastic strains, different kinds of formulations can be adopted. The primary intention of this study is to develop computer programming of plasticity models to accurately predict the life of engineering components. For this purpose, the energy or cyclic strain is computed in multi-surface plasticity models in non-proportional loading and to present their procedures and codes results.

Keywords: Strain energy, cyclic plasticity model, multi-surface model, codes result.

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4864 Pose-Dependency of Machine Tool Structures: Appearance, Consequences, and Challenges for Lightweight Large-Scale Machines

Authors: S. Apprich, F. Wulle, A. Lechler, A. Pott, A. Verl

Abstract:

Large-scale machine tools for the manufacturing of large work pieces, e.g. blades, casings or gears for wind turbines, feature pose-dependent dynamic behavior. Small structural damping coefficients lead to long decay times for structural vibrations that have negative impacts on the production process. Typically, these vibrations are handled by increasing the stiffness of the structure by adding mass. This is counterproductive to the needs of sustainable manufacturing as it leads to higher resource consumption both in material and in energy. Recent research activities have led to higher resource efficiency by radical mass reduction that is based on controlintegrated active vibration avoidance and damping methods. These control methods depend on information describing the dynamic behavior of the controlled machine tools in order to tune the avoidance or reduction method parameters according to the current state of the machine. This paper presents the appearance, consequences and challenges of the pose-dependent dynamic behavior of lightweight large-scale machine tool structures in production. It starts with the theoretical introduction of the challenges of lightweight machine tool structures resulting from reduced stiffness. The statement of the pose-dependent dynamic behavior is corroborated by the results of the experimental modal analysis of a lightweight test structure. Afterwards, the consequences of the pose-dependent dynamic behavior of lightweight machine tool structures for the use of active control and vibration reduction methods are explained. Based on the state of the art of pose-dependent dynamic machine tool models and the modal investigation of an FE-model of the lightweight test structure, the criteria for a pose-dependent model for use in vibration reduction are derived. The description of the approach for a general posedependent model of the dynamic behavior of large lightweight machine tools that provides the necessary input to the aforementioned vibration avoidance and reduction methods to properly tackle machine vibrations is the outlook of the paper.

Keywords: Dynamic behavior, lightweight, machine tool, pose-dependency.

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4863 A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

Abstract:

The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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4862 A Survey of the Applications of Sentiment Analysis

Authors: Pingping Lin, Xudong Luo

Abstract:

Natural language often conveys emotions of speakers. Therefore, sentiment analysis on what people say is prevalent in the field of natural language process and has great application value in many practical problems. Thus, to help people understand its application value, in this paper, we survey various applications of sentiment analysis, including the ones in online business and offline business as well as other types of its applications. In particular, we give some application examples in intelligent customer service systems in China. Besides, we compare the applications of sentiment analysis on Twitter, Weibo, Taobao and Facebook, and discuss some challenges. Finally, we point out the challenges faced in the applications of sentiment analysis and the work that is worth being studied in the future.

Keywords: Natural language processing, sentiment analysis, application, online comments.

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4861 Sounds Alike Name Matching for Myanmar Language

Authors: Yuzana, Khin Marlar Tun

Abstract:

Personal name matching system is the core of essential task in national citizen database, text and web mining, information retrieval, online library system, e-commerce and record linkage system. It has necessitated to the all embracing research in the vicinity of name matching. Traditional name matching methods are suitable for English and other Latin based language. Asian languages which have no word boundary such as Myanmar language still requires sounds alike matching system in Unicode based application. Hence we proposed matching algorithm to get analogous sounds alike (phonetic) pattern that is convenient for Myanmar character spelling. According to the nature of Myanmar character, we consider for word boundary fragmentation, collation of character. Thus we use pattern conversion algorithm which fabricates words in pattern with fragmented and collated. We create the Myanmar sounds alike phonetic group to help in the phonetic matching. The experimental results show that fragmentation accuracy in 99.32% and processing time in 1.72 ms.

Keywords: natural language processing, name matching, phonetic matching

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4860 The Implementation of Word Study Wall in an Online English Word Memorization Class

Authors: Yidan Shao

Abstract:

With the advancement of the economy, technology promotes online teaching, and learning has become one of the common features in the educational field. Meanwhile, the dramatic expansion of the online environment provides opportunities for more learners, including second language learners. A greater command of vocabulary improves students’ learning capacity, and word acquisition and development play a critical role in learning. Furthermore, the Word Wall is an effective tool to improve students’ knowledge of words, which works for a wide range of age groups. Therefore, this study is going to use the Word Wall as an intervention to examine whether it can bring some memorization changes in an online English language class for a second language learner based on the word morphology method. The participant will take ten courses in the experiment as it plans. The findings show that the Word Wall activity plays a slight role in improving word memorizing, but it does affect instant memorization. If longer periods and more comprehensive designs of research can be applied, it is expected to have more value.

Keywords: Second language acquisition, word morphology, word memorization, the Word Wall.

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4859 Comparing and Combining the Axial with the Network Maps for Analyzing Urban Street Pattern

Authors: Nophaket Napong

Abstract:

Rooted in the study of social functioning of space in architecture, Space Syntax (SS) and the more recent Network Pattern (NP) researches demonstrate the 'spatial structures' of city, i.e. the hierarchical patterns of streets, junctions and alley ends. Applying SS and NP models, planners can conceptualize the real city-s patterns. Although, both models yield the optimal path of the city their underpinning displays of the city-s spatial configuration differ. The Axial Map analyzes the topological non-distance-based connectivity structure, whereas, the Central-Node Map and the Shortcut-Path Map, in contrast, analyze the metrical distance-based structures. This research contrasts and combines them to understand various forms of city-s structures. It concludes that, while they reveal different spatial structures, Space Syntax and Network Pattern urban models support each the other. Combining together they simulate the global access and the locally compact structures namely the central nodes and the shortcuts for the city.

Keywords: Street pattern, space syntax, syntactic and metrical models, network pattern models.

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4858 Application of RP Technology with Polycarbonate Material for Wind Tunnel Model Fabrication

Authors: A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, S. Daneshmand, C. Aghanajafi

Abstract:

Traditionally, wind tunnel models are made of metal and are very expensive. In these years, everyone is looking for ways to do more with less. Under the right test conditions, a rapid prototype part could be tested in a wind tunnel. Using rapid prototype manufacturing techniques and materials in this way significantly reduces time and cost of production of wind tunnel models. This study was done of fused deposition modeling (FDM) and their ability to make components for wind tunnel models in a timely and cost effective manner. This paper discusses the application of wind tunnel model configuration constructed using FDM for transonic wind tunnel testing. A study was undertaken comparing a rapid prototyping model constructed of FDM Technologies using polycarbonate to that of a standard machined steel model. Testing covered the Mach range of Mach 0.3 to Mach 0.75 at an angle-ofattack range of - 2° to +12°. Results from this study show relatively good agreement between the two models and rapid prototyping Method reduces time and cost of production of wind tunnel models. It can be concluded from this study that wind tunnel models constructed using rapid prototyping method and materials can be used in wind tunnel testing for initial baseline aerodynamic database development.

Keywords: Polycarbonate, Fabrication, FDM, Model, RapidPrototyping, Wind Tunnel.

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4857 Spurious Crests in Second-Order Waves

Authors: M. A. Tayfun

Abstract:

Occurrences of spurious crests on the troughs of large, relatively steep second-order Stokes waves are anomalous and not an inherent characteristic of real waves. Here, the effects of such occurrences on the statistics described by the standard second-order stochastic model are examined theoretically and by way of simulations. Theoretical results and simulations indicate that when spurious occurrences are sufficiently large, the standard model leads to physically unrealistic surface features and inaccuracies in the statistics of various surface features, in particular, the troughs and thus zero-crossing heights of large waves. Whereas inaccuracies can be fairly noticeable for long-crested waves in both deep and shallower depths, they tend to become relatively insignificant in directional waves.

Keywords: Large waves, non-linear effects, simulation, spectra, spurious crests, Stokes waves, wave breaking, wave statistics.

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4856 On the Dynamic Model of Service Innovation in Manufacturing Industry

Authors: Yongyoon Suh, Chulhyun Kim, Moon-soo Kim

Abstract:

As the trend of manufacturing is being dominated depending on services, products and processes are more and more related with sophisticated services. Thus, this research starts with the discussion about integration of the product, process, and service in the innovation process. In particular, this paper sets out some foundations for a theory of service innovation in the field of manufacturing, and proposes the dynamic model of service innovation related to product and process. Two dynamic models of service innovation are suggested to investigate major tendencies and dynamic variations during the innovation cycle: co-innovation and sequential innovation. To structure dynamic models of product, process, and service innovation, the innovation stages in which two models are mainly achieved are identified. The research would encourage manufacturers to formulate strategy and planning for service development with product and process.

Keywords: dynamic model, service innovation, service innovation models, innovation cycle, manufacturing industry.

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4855 Business Domain Modelling Using an Integrated Framework

Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of a “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft systems approach to domain-driven design of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework have been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, and a real case study “Information Retrieval System for academic research” is used, in this paper, to show further practice and evaluation of the framework in different business domain. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way for business domain modelling. The framework is overviewed and justified as multimethodology using Mingers multimethodology ideas.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domaindriven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology.

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4854 Group Contribution Parameters for Nonrandom Lattice Fluid Equation of State involving COSMO-RS

Authors: Alexander Breitholz, Wolfgang Arlt, Ki-Pung Yoo

Abstract:

Group contribution based models are widely used in industrial applications for its convenience and flexibility. Although a number of group contribution models have been proposed, there were certain limitations inherent to those models. Models based on group contribution excess Gibbs free energy are limited to low pressures and models based on equation of state (EOS) cannot properly describe highly nonideal mixtures including acids without introducing additional modification such as chemical theory. In the present study new a new approach derived from quantum chemistry have been used to calculate necessary EOS group interaction parameters. The COSMO-RS method, based on quantum mechanics, provides a reliable tool for fluid phase thermodynamics. Benefits of the group contribution EOS are the consistent extension to hydrogen-bonded mixtures and the capability to predict polymer-solvent equilibria up to high pressures. The authors are confident that with a sufficient parameter matrix the performance of the lattice EOS can be improved significantly.

Keywords: COSMO-RS, Equation of State, Group contribution, Lattice Fluid, Phase equilibria.

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4853 SQL Generator Based On MVC Pattern

Authors: Chanchai Supaartagorn

Abstract:

Structured Query Language (SQL) is the standard de facto language to access and manipulate data in a relational database. Although SQL is a language that is simple and powerful, most novice users will have trouble with SQL syntax. Thus, we are presenting SQL generator tool which is capable of translating actions and displaying SQL commands and data sets simultaneously. The tool was developed based on Model-View-Controller (MVC) pattern. The MVC pattern is a widely used software design pattern that enforces the separation between the input, processing, and output of an application. Developers take full advantage of it to reduce the complexity in architectural design and to increase flexibility and reuse of code. In addition, we use White-Box testing for the code verification in the Model module.

Keywords: MVC, relational database, SQL, White-Box testing.

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4852 Corporate Credit Rating using Multiclass Classification Models with order Information

Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, Kyoung-Jae Kim

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has been one of the attractive research topics in the literature. In recent years, multiclass classification models such as artificial neural network (ANN) or multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have become a very appealing machine learning approaches due to their good performance. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories, thus the unique characteristic of the credit rating - ordinality - has been seldom considered in their approaches. This study proposes new types of ANN and MSVM classifiers, which are named OMANN and OMSVM respectively. OMANN and OMSVM are designed to extend binary ANN or SVM classifiers by applying ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. These models can handle ordinal multiple classes efficiently and effectively. To validate the usefulness of these two models, we applied them to the real-world bond rating case. We compared the results of our models to those of conventional approaches. The experimental results showed that our proposed models improve classification accuracy in comparison to typical multiclass classification techniques with the reduced computation resource.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Corporate credit rating, Support vector machines, Ordinal pairwise partitioning

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4851 Hydrological Modeling of Watersheds Using the Only Corresponding Competitor Method: The Case of M’Zab Basin, South East Algeria

Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

Abstract:

Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: Empirical model, modeling, OCC, rainfall-runoff relationship.

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4850 Estimating Regression Parameters in Linear Regression Model with a Censored Response Variable

Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.

Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.

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4849 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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4848 Parameter Tuning of Complex Systems Modeled in Agent Based Modeling and Simulation

Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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4847 Statistical Analysis for Overdispersed Medical Count Data

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

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