Search results for: discrete choice models

Authors: Hermann Kuehnle

Abstract:

Applications of the Hausdorff space and its mappings into tangent spaces are outlined, including their fractal dimensions and self-similarities. The paper details this theory set up and further describes virtualizations and atomization of manufacturing processes. It demonstrates novel concurrency principles that will guide manufacturing processes and resources configurations. Moreover, varying levels of details may be produced by up folding and breaking down of newly introduced generic models. This choice of layered generic models for units and systems aspects along specific aspects allows research work in parallel to other disciplines with the same focus on all levels of detail. More credit and easier access are granted to outside disciplines for enriching manufacturing grounds. Specific mappings and the layers give hints for chances for interdisciplinary outcomes and may highlight more details for interoperability standards, as already worked on the international level. The new rules are described, which require additional properties concerning all involved entities for defining distributed decision cycles, again on the base of self-similarity. All properties are further detailed and assigned to a maturity scale, eventually displaying the smartness maturity of a total shopfloor or a factory. The paper contributes to the intensive ongoing discussion in the field of intelligent distributed manufacturing and promotes solid concepts for implementations of Cyber Physical Systems and the Internet of Things into manufacturing industry, like industry 4.0, as discussed in German-speaking countries.

Keywords: Autonomous unit, Networkability, Smart manufacturing unit, Virtualization.

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

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Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is very important as it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, it helps to reduce the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we make a survey of the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use two dispersed statistical models to analyze data. The models are the Generalized Poisson regression model and the Com-Poisson regression models.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, regression model, generalized poisson, com-poisson.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero truncated model is usually used in modeling count data without zero. It is the opposite of zero inflated model. Zero truncated Poisson and zero truncated negative binomial models are discussed and used by some researchers in analyzing the abundance of rare species and hospital stay. Zero truncated models are used as the base in developing hurdle models. In this study, we developed a new model, the zero truncated strict arcsine model, which can be used as an alternative model in modeling count data without zero and with extra variation. Two simulated and one real life data sets are used and fitted into this developed model. The results show that the model provides a good fit to the data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters.

Keywords: Hurdle models, maximum likelihood estimation method, positive count data.

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Authors: Say Wei Foo, Qi Dong

Abstract:

Digital watermarking is one of the techniques for copyright protection. In this paper, a normalization-based robust image watermarking scheme which encompasses singular value decomposition (SVD) and discrete cosine transform (DCT) techniques is proposed. For the proposed scheme, the host image is first normalized to a standard form and divided into non-overlapping image blocks. SVD is applied to each block. By concatenating the first singular values (SV) of adjacent blocks of the normalized image, a SV block is obtained. DCT is then carried out on the SV blocks to produce SVD-DCT blocks. A watermark bit is embedded in the highfrequency band of a SVD-DCT block by imposing a particular relationship between two pseudo-randomly selected DCT coefficients. An adaptive frequency mask is used to adjust local watermark embedding strength. Watermark extraction involves mainly the inverse process. The watermark extracting method is blind and efficient. Experimental results show that the quality degradation of watermarked image caused by the embedded watermark is visually transparent. Results also show that the proposed scheme is robust against various image processing operations and geometric attacks.

Keywords: Image watermarking, Image normalization, Singularvalue decomposition, Discrete cosine transform, Robustness.

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Authors: Neerja Bhatnagar, Ben A. Juliano, Renee S. Renner

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This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.

Keywords: Annotation query language, data annotations, data annotation models, semantic data annotations.

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.

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Authors: Dr.K.Sri Rama Krishna, J.Lakshmi Narayana, Dr.L.Pratap Reddy

Abstract:

Microstrip lines, widely used for good reason, are broadband in frequency and provide circuits that are compact and light in weight. They are generally economical to produce since they are readily adaptable to hybrid and monolithic integrated circuit (IC) fabrication technologies at RF and microwave frequencies. Although, the existing EM simulation models used for the synthesis and analysis of microstrip lines are reasonably accurate, they are computationally intensive and time consuming. Neural networks recently gained attention as fast and flexible vehicles to microwave modeling, simulation and optimization. After learning and abstracting from microwave data, through a process called training, neural network models are used during microwave design to provide instant answers to the task learned.This paper presents simple and accurate ANN models for the synthesis and analysis of Microstrip lines to more accurately compute the characteristic parameters and the physical dimensions respectively for the required design specifications.

Keywords: Neural Models, Algorithms, Microstrip Lines, Analysis, Synthesis

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Authors: Yvonne T. Haigh

Abstract:

Public sector corruption has long-term and damaging effects that are deep and broad. Addressing corruption relies on understanding the drivers that precipitate acts of corruption and developing educational programs that target areas of vulnerability. This paper provides an innovative approach to explore the nature of corruption by drawing on the perceptions and ideas of a group of public servants who have been part of a corruption investigation. The paper examines these reflections through the ideas of Pierre Bourdieu and Alfred Schutz to point to some of the steps that can lead to corrupt activity. The paper demonstrates that phenomenological inquiry is useful in the exploration of corruption and, as a theoretical framework, it highlights that corruption emerges through a combination of conflict, doubt and uncertainty. The paper calls for anti-corruption education programs to be attentive to way in which these conditions can influence the steps into corruption.

Keywords: Phenomenology, choice, conflict, corruption.

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Authors: M. Ismail, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming, Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain. In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of cambered NACA 64-210 and symmetric NACA 0012 airfoils. Our results show significant increase in drag and decrease in lift. We used preprocessing software gridgen for creation of geometry and mesh, used fluent as solver and techplot as postprocessor. Discrete phase modeling called DPM is used to model the rain particles using two phase flow approach. The rain particles are assumed to be inert. Both airfoils showed significant decrease in lift and increase in drag in simulated rain environment. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the NACA 64-210 more sensitivity than NACA 0012 to liquid water content (LWC). We believe that the results showed in this paper will be useful for the designer of the commercial aircrafts and UAVs, and will be helpful for training of the pilots to control the airplanes in heavy rain.

Keywords: airfoil, discrete phase modeling, heavy rain, Reynolds

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Authors: Mohammed M. Siddeq, Mohammed H. Rasheed, Omar M. Salih, Marcos A. Rodrigues

Abstract:

This research proposes a data encoding and decoding method based on the Matrix Minimization algorithm. This algorithm is applied to high-frequency coefficients for compression/encoding. The algorithm starts by converting every three coefficients to a single value; this is accomplished based on three different keys. The decoding/decompression uses a search method called QSS (Quick Sequential Search) Decoding Algorithm presented in this research based on the sequential search to recover the exact coefficients. In the next step, the decoded data are saved in an auxiliary array. The basic idea behind the auxiliary array is to save all possible decoded coefficients; this is because another algorithm, such as conventional sequential search, could retrieve encoded/compressed data independently from the proposed algorithm. The experimental results showed that our proposed decoding algorithm retrieves original data faster than conventional sequential search algorithms.

Keywords: Matrix Minimization Algorithm, Decoding Sequential Search Algorithm, image compression, Discrete Cosine Transform, Discrete Wavelet Transform.

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Authors: B. A. Gobin, R. K. Subramanian

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This paper gives an overview of how an OWL ontology has been created to represent template knowledge models defined in CML that are provided by CommonKADS. CommonKADS is a mature knowledge engineering methodology which proposes the use of template knowledge model for knowledge modelling. The aim of developing this ontology is to present the template knowledge model in a knowledge representation language that can be easily understood and shared in the knowledge engineering community. Hence OWL is used as it has become a standard for ontology and also it already has user friendly tools for viewing and editing.

Keywords: Ontology, OWL, Template Knowledge Models, CommonKADS

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

Abstract:

Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows drawing conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stageby- stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: Pankaj K. Gupta, Krishnan V. Pagalthivarthi

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The present work compares the performance of three turbulence modeling approach (based on the two-equation k -ε model) in predicting erosive wear in multi-size dense slurry flow through rotating channel. All three turbulence models include rotation modification to the production term in the turbulent kineticenergy equation. The two-phase flow field obtained numerically using Galerkin finite element methodology relates the local flow velocity and concentration to the wear rate via a suitable wear model. The wear models for both sliding wear and impact wear mechanisms account for the particle size dependence. Results of predicted wear rates using the three turbulence models are compared for a large number of cases spanning such operating parameters as rotation rate, solids concentration, flow rate, particle size distribution and so forth. The root-mean-square error between FE-generated data and the correlation between maximum wear rate and the operating parameters is found less than 2.5% for all the three models.

Keywords: Rotating channel, maximum wear rate, multi-sizeparticulate flow, k −ε turbulence models.

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Authors: K. Kamalanand, S. Srinivasan

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Analysis of blood vessel mechanics in normal and diseased conditions is essential for disease research, medical device design and treatment planning. In this work, 3D finite element models of normal vessel and atherosclerotic vessel with 50% plaque deposition were developed. The developed models were meshed using finite number of tetrahedral elements. The developed models were simulated using actual blood pressure signals. Based on the transient analysis performed on the developed models, the parameters such as total displacement, strain energy density and entropy per unit volume were obtained. Further, the obtained parameters were used to develop artificial neural network models for analyzing normal and atherosclerotic blood vessels. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented.

Keywords: Blood vessel, atherosclerosis, finite element model, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Integral square error, Least-squares, Markovparameters, Moment matching, Order reduction.

Abstract:

The concept of order reduction by least-squares moment matching and generalised least-squares methods has been extended about a general point ?a?, to obtain the reduced order models for linear, time-invariant dynamic systems. Some heuristic criteria have been employed for selecting the linear shift point ?a?, based upon the means (arithmetic, harmonic and geometric) of real parts of the poles of high order system. It is shown that the resultant model depends critically on the choice of linear shift point ?a?. The validity of the criteria is illustrated by solving a numerical example and the results are compared with the other existing techniques.

Keywords: Integral square error, Least-squares, Markovparameters, Moment matching, Order reduction.

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Authors: M. Madiajagan, B. Vijayakumar

Abstract:

The ability of information systems to operate in conjunction with each other encompassing communication protocols, hardware, software, application, and data compatibility layers. There has been considerable work in industry on the development of component interoperability models, such as CORBA, (D)COM and JavaBeans. These models are intended to reduce the complexity of software development and to facilitate reuse of off-the-shelf components. The focus of these models is syntactic interface specification, component packaging, inter-component communications, and bindings to a runtime environment. What these models lack is a consideration of architectural concerns – specifying systems of communicating components, explicitly representing loci of component interaction, and exploiting architectural styles that provide well-understood global design solutions. The development of complex business applications is now focused on an assembly of components available on a local area network or on the net. These components must be localized and identified in terms of available services and communication protocol before any request. The first part of the article introduces the base concepts of components and middleware while the following sections describe the different up-todate models of communication and interaction and the last section shows how different models can communicate among themselves.

Keywords: Interoperability, component packaging, communication technology, heterogeneous platform, component interface, middleware.

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Authors: S. J. Arif

Abstract:

In the presented technique, a simple method is given for accurate measurement and control of power frequency deviation. The sinusoidal signal for which the frequency deviation measurement is required is transformed to a low voltage level and passed through a zero crossing detector to convert it into a pulse train. Another stable square wave signal of 10 KHz is obtained using a crystal oscillator and decade dividing assemblies (DDA). These signals are combined digitally and then passed through decade counters to give a unique combination of pulses or levels, which are further encoded to make them equally suitable for both control applications and display units. The developed circuit using discrete components has a resolution of 0.5 Hz and completes measurement within 20 ms. The realized circuit is simulated and synthesized using Verilog HDL and subsequently implemented on FPGA. The results of measurement on FPGA are observed on a very high resolution logic analyzer. These results accurately match the simulation results as well as the results of same circuit implemented with discrete components. The proposed system is suitable for accurate measurement and control of power frequency deviation.

Keywords: Digital encoder for frequency measurement, frequency deviation measurement, measurement and control systems, power systems.

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Authors: Jixin Liu, Zheming Lu

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel multipurpose audio watermarking algorithm is proposed based on Vector Quantization (VQ) in Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) domain using the codeword labeling and index-bit constrained method. By using this algorithm, it can fulfill the requirements of both the copyright protection and content integrity authentication at the same time for the multimedia artworks. The robust watermark is embedded in the middle frequency coefficients of the DCT transform during the labeled codeword vector quantization procedure. The fragile watermark is embedded into the indices of the high frequency coefficients of the DCT transform by using the constrained index vector quantization method for the purpose of integrity authentication of the original audio signals. Both the robust and the fragile watermarks can be extracted without the original audio signals, and the simulation results show that our algorithm is effective with regard to the transparency, robustness and the authentication requirements

Keywords: Copyright Protection, Discrete Cosine Transform, Integrity Authentication, Multipurpose Audio Watermarking, Vector Quantization.

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Authors: M. Ismail, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming

Abstract:

Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain. In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of NACA 64-210 & NACA 0012 airfoils. For our analysis, CFD method and preprocessing grid generator are used as our main analytical tools, and the simulation of rain is accomplished via two phase flow approach-s Discrete Phase Model (DPM). Raindrops are assumed to be non-interacting, non-deforming, non-evaporating and non-spinning spheres. Both airfoil sections exhibited significant reduction in lift and increase in drag for a given lift condition in simulated rain. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the sensitivity of the NACA 64-210 to liquid water content (LWC), while NACA 0012 performance losses in the rain environment is not a function of LWC . It is expected that the quantitative information gained in this paper will be useful to the operational airline industry and greater effort such as small scale and full scale flight tests should put in this direction to further improve aviation safety.

Keywords: airfoil, discrete phase modeling, heavy rain, Reynolds number

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Madzlan Napiah, Mohd. Faris Khamidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a conceptual model of agreement options on negotiation support for civil engineering decision. The negotiation support facilitates the solving of group choice decision making problems in civil engineering decision to reduce the impact of mud volcano disaster in Sidoarjo, Indonesia. The approach based on application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method for multi criteria decision on three level of decision hierarchy. Decisions for reducing impact is very complicated since many parties involved in a critical time. Where a number of stakeholders are involved in choosing a single alternative from a set of solution alternatives, there are different concern caused by differing stakeholder preferences, experiences, and background. Therefore, a group choice decision support is required to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. Such civil engineering solutions as alternatives are referred to as agreement options that are determined by identifying the possible stakeholder choice, followed by determining the optimal solution for each group of stakeholder. Determination of the optimal solution is based on a game theory model of n-person general sum game with complete information that involves forming coalitions among stakeholders.

Keywords: Agreement options, AHP, agent, negotiation, multicriteria, game theory, and coalition.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Changhyuk Jang, Keechul Jung

Abstract:

Human pose estimation can be executed using Active Shape Models. The existing techniques for applying to human-body research using Active Shape Models, such as human detection, primarily take the form of silhouette of human body. This technique is not able to estimate accurately for human pose to concern two arms and legs, as the silhouette of human body represents the shape as out of round. To solve this problem, we applied the human body model as stick-figure, “skeleton". The skeleton model of human body can give consideration to various shapes of human pose. To obtain effective estimation result, we applied background subtraction and deformed matching algorithm of primary Active Shape Models in the fitting process. The images which were used to make the model were 600 human bodies, and the model has 17 landmark points which indicate body junction and key features of human pose. The maximum iteration for the fitting process was 30 times and the execution time was less than .03 sec.

Keywords: Active shape models, skeleton, pose estimation.

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Authors: P.L.D.N.M. de Silva, S.G. Edirisinghe, R. Weerasuriya

Abstract:

High Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) is a concern of Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) based Visible Light Communication (VLC) systems. Discrete Fourier Transform spread (DFT-s) OFDM is an alternative single carrier modulation scheme which would address this concern. Employing channel coding techniques is another mechanism to reduce the PAPR. In this study, the improvement which can be harnessed by hybridizing these two techniques for VLC system is being studied. Within the study, efficient techniques such as Hamming coding and Convolutional coding have been studied. Thus, we present the impact of the hybrid of DFT-s OFDM and Channel coding (Hamming coding and Convolutional coding) on PAPR in VLC systems, using MATLAB simulations.

Keywords: Convolutional Coding, Discrete Fourier Transform spread Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (DFT-s OFDM), Hamming Coding, Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), Visible Light Communications (VLC).

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Authors: R. Bremananth

Abstract:

Acoustic Imaging based sound localization using microphone array is a challenging task in digital-signal processing. Discrete Fourier transform (DFT) based near-field acoustical holography (NAH) is an important acoustical technique for sound source localization and provide an efficient solution to the ill-posed problem. However, in practice, due to the usage of small curtailed aperture and its consequence of significant spectral leakage, the DFT could not reconstruct the active-region-of-sound (AROS) effectively, especially near the edges of aperture. In this paper, we emphasize the fundamental problems of DFT-based NAH, provide a solution to spectral leakage effect by the extrapolation based on linear predictive coding and 2D Tukey windowing. This approach has been tested to localize the single and multi-point sound sources. We observe that incorporating extrapolation technique increases the spatial resolution, localization accuracy and reduces spectral leakage when small curtail aperture with a lower number of sensors accounts.

Keywords: Acoustic Imaging, Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), k-space wavenumber, Near-Field Acoustical Holography (NAH), Source Localization, Spectral Leakage.

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Authors: Xuanyu Bai

Abstract:

“The Communist Manifesto”, written by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, is one of the most significant documents throughout the whole history which covers across different fields including Economic, Politic, Sociology and Philosophy. Instead of discussing the Communist ideas presented in the Communist Manifesto, the essay focuses on exploring the reasons that contributed to the popularization of the document and its influence on political revolutions in 19^th century Europe by concentrating on the document itself along with other primary and secondary sources and temporal artwork. Combining the details from the Communist Manifesto and other documents, Marx’s writing style and word choice, his convincible notions about a new society dominated by proletariats, and the revolutionary idea of class destruction has led to the popularization of the Communist Manifesto and influenced the latter political revolutions.

Keywords: Communist Manifesto, The Wealth of Nations, 19th century Europe, word choice, capitalism, communism.

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Authors: Emad Alenany, M. Adel El-Baz

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In this paper, the flow of different classes of patients into a hospital is modelled and analyzed by using the queueing network analyzer (QNA) algorithm and discrete event simulation. Input data for QNA are the rate and variability parameters of the arrival and service times in addition to the number of servers in each facility. Patient flows mostly match real flow for a hospital in Egypt. Based on the analysis of the waiting times, two approaches are suggested for improving performance: Separating patients into service groups, and adopting different service policies for sequencing patients through hospital units. The separation of a specific group of patients, with higher performance target, to be served separately from the rest of patients requiring lower performance target, requires the same capacity while improves performance for the selected group of patients with higher target. Besides, it is shown that adopting the shortest processing time and shortest remaining processing time service policies among other tested policies would results in, respectively, 11.47% and 13.75% reduction in average waiting time relative to first come first served policy.

Keywords: Queueing network, discrete-event simulation, health applications, SPT.

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Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

Abstract:

Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

Abstract:

Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.

Keywords: multiple criteria threshold algorithm, serviceoriented architecture, SOA operational risks, efficiency criteria for IS architecture, projects ranking.

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Authors: Asfaw Gezae Daful

Abstract:

In the present study, two distinctly different approaches are followed for modeling of reactive distillation column, the equilibrium stage model and the nonequilibrium stage model. These models are simulated with a computer code developed in the present study using MATLAB programming. In the equilibrium stage models, the vapor and liquid phases are assumed to be in equilibrium and allowance is made for finite reaction rates, where as in the nonequilibrium stage models simultaneous mass transfer and reaction rates are considered. These simulated model results are validated from the experimental data reported in the literature. The simulated results of equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared for concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles in a reactive distillation column for Methyl Tert Butyle Ether (MTBE) production. Both the models show similar trend for the concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles but the nonequilibrium model predictions are higher and closer to the experimental values reported in the literature.

Keywords: Reactive Distillation, Equilibrium model, Nonequilibrium model, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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