Search results for: Numerical methods

Authors: N. Ngadi, J. Abrahamson, C. Fee, K. Morison

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Adsorption of proteins onto a solid surface is believed to be the initial and controlling step in biofouling. A better knowledge of the fouling process can be obtained by controlling the formation of the first protein layer at a solid surface. A number of methods have been investigated to inhibit adsorption of proteins. In this study, the adsorption kinetics of

Keywords: E-casein, QCM-D, stainless steel, bimodal brush, PEG

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Authors: János Levendovszky, András Oláh

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In this paper, novel statistical sampling based equalization techniques and CNN based detection are proposed to increase the spectral efficiency of multiuser communication systems over fading channels. Multiuser communication combined with selective fading can result in interferences which severely deteriorate the quality of service in wireless data transmission (e.g. CDMA in mobile communication). The paper introduces new equalization methods to combat interferences by minimizing the Bit Error Rate (BER) as a function of the equalizer coefficients. This provides higher performance than the traditional Minimum Mean Square Error equalization. Since the calculation of BER as a function of the equalizer coefficients is of exponential complexity, statistical sampling methods are proposed to approximate the gradient which yields fast equalization and superior performance to the traditional algorithms. Efficient estimation of the gradient is achieved by using stratified sampling and the Li-Silvester bounds. A simple mechanism is derived to identify the dominant samples in real-time, for the sake of efficient estimation. The equalizer weights are adapted recursively by minimizing the estimated BER. The near-optimal performance of the new algorithms is also demonstrated by extensive simulations. The paper has also developed a (Cellular Neural Network) CNN based approach to detection. In this case fast quadratic optimization has been carried out by t, whereas the task of equalizer is to ensure the required template structure (sparseness) for the CNN. The performance of the method has also been analyzed by simulations.

Keywords: Cellular Neural Network, channel equalization, communication over fading channels, multiuser communication, spectral efficiency, statistical sampling.

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Authors: D. Hilton

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An analysis of the Australian Diabetes Screening Study estimated undiagnosed diabetes mellitus [DM] prevalence in a high risk general practice based cohort. DM prevalence varied from 9.4% to 18.1% depending upon the diagnostic criteria utilised with age being a highly significant risk factor. Utilising the gold standard oral glucose tolerance test, the prevalence of DM was 22-23% in those aged >= 70 years and <15% in those aged 40-59 years. Opportunistic screening in Australian general practice potentially can identify many persons with undiagnosed type 2 DM. An Australian Bureau of Statistics document published three years ago, reported the highest rate of DM in men aged 65-74 years [19%] whereas the rate for women was highest in those over 75 years [13%]. If you consider that the Australian Bureau of Statistics report in 2007 found that 13% of the population was over 65 years of age and that this will increase to 23-25% by 2056 with a further projected increase to 25-28% by 2101, obviously this information has to be factored into the equation when age related diabetes prevalence predictions are calculated. This 10-15% proportional increase of elderly persons within the population demographics has dramatic implications for the estimated number of elderly persons with DM in these age groupings. Computational methodology showing the age related demographic changes reported in these official statistical documents will be done showing estimates for 2056 and 2101 for different age groups. This has relevance for future diabetes prevalence rates and shows that along with many countries worldwide Australia is facing an increasing pandemic. In contrast Japan is expected to have a decrease in the next twenty years in the number of persons with diabetes.

Keywords: Epidemiological methods, aging, prevalence.

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems.

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Authors: Jahar Sarkar

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In the present study, a steady-state simulation model has been developed to evaluate the system performance of a transcritical carbon dioxide heat pump system for simultaneous water cooling and heating. Both the evaporator (including both two-phase and superheated zone) and gas cooler models consider the highly variable heat transfer characteristics of CO2 and pressure drop. The numerical simulation model of transcritical CO2 heat pump has been validated by test data obtained from experiments on the heat pump prototype. Comparison between the test results and the model prediction for system COP variation with compressor discharge pressure shows a modest agreement with a maximum deviation of 15% and the trends are fairly similar. Comparison for other operating parameters also shows fairly similar deviation between the test results and the model prediction. Finally, the simulation results are presented to study the effects of operating parameters such as, temperature of heat exchanger fluid at the inlet, discharge pressure, compressor speed on system performance of CO2 heat pump, suitable in a dairy plant where simultaneous cooling at 4oC and heating at 73oC are required. Results show that good heat transfer properties of CO2 for both two-phase and supercritical region and efficient compression process contribute a lot for high system COPs.

Keywords: CO2 heat pump, dairy system, experiment, simulation model, validation.

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Authors: Azadeh Rouhandeh, Chris Joslin, Zhen Qu, Yuu Ono

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The centre of rotation of the hip joint is needed for an accurate simulation of the joint performance in many applications such as pre-operative planning simulation, human gait analysis, and hip joint disorders. In human movement analysis, the hip joint center can be estimated using a functional method based on the relative motion of the femur to pelvis measured using reflective markers attached to the skin surface. The principal source of errors in estimation of hip joint centre location using functional methods is soft tissue artefacts due to the relative motion between the markers and bone. One of the main objectives in human movement analysis is the assessment of soft tissue artefact as the accuracy of functional methods depends upon it. Various studies have described the movement of soft tissue artefact invasively, such as intra-cortical pins, external fixators, percutaneous skeletal trackers, and Roentgen photogrammetry. The goal of this study is to present a non-invasive method to assess the displacements of the markers relative to the underlying bone using optical motion capture data and tissue thickness from ultrasound measurements during flexion, extension, and abduction (all with knee extended) of the hip joint. Results show that the artefact skin marker displacements are non-linear and larger in areas closer to the hip joint. Also marker displacements are dependent on the movement type and relatively larger in abduction movement. The quantification of soft tissue artefacts can be used as a basis for a correction procedure for hip joint kinematics.

Keywords: Hip joint centre, motion capture, soft tissue artefact, ultrasound depth measurement.

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Authors: L. Al Ahmad, C. Latrille, D. Hainos, D. Blanc, M. Clausse

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A two-dimensional finite volume axisymmetric model is developed to predict the simultaneous heat and mass transfers during the drying of industrial sludge. The simulations were run using COMSOL-Multiphysics 3.5a. The input parameters of the numerical model were acquired from a preliminary experimental work. Results permit to establish correlations describing the evolution of the various parameters as a function of the drying temperature and the sludge water content. The selection and coupling of the equation are validated based on the drying kinetics acquired experimentally at a temperature range of 45-65 °C and absolute pressure range of 200-1000 mbar. The model, incorporating the heat and mass transfer mechanisms at different operating conditions, shows simulated values of temperature and water content. Simulated results are found concordant with the experimental values, only at the first and last drying stages where sludge shrinkage is insignificant. Simulated and experimental results show that sludge drying is favored at high temperatures and low pressure. As experimentally observed, the drying time is reduced by 68% for drying at 65 °C compared to 45 °C under 1 atm. At 65 °C, a 200-mbar absolute pressure vacuum leads to an additional reduction in drying time estimated by 61%. However, the drying rate is underestimated in the intermediate stage. This rate underestimation could be improved in the model by considering the shrinkage phenomena that occurs during sludge drying.

Keywords: Industrial sludge drying, heat transfer, mass transfer, mathematical modelling.

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Authors: Anton A. Bykov, Irina O. Glot, Igor N. Shardakov, Alexey P. Shestakov

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This paper presents the results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the mechanisms of crack formation in reinforced concrete beams subjected to quasi-static bending. The boundary-value problem has been formulated in the framework of brittle fracture mechanics and has been solved by using the finite-element method. Numerical simulation of the vibrations of an uncracked beam and a beam with cracks of different size serves to determine the pattern of changes in the spectrum of eigenfrequencies observed during crack evolution. Experiments were performed on the sequential quasistatic four-point bending of the beam leading to the formation of cracks in concrete. At each loading stage, the beam was subjected to an impulse load to induce vibrations. Two stages of cracking were detected. At the first stage the conservative process of deformation is realized. The second stage is an active cracking, which is marked by a sharp change in eingenfrequencies. The boundary of a transition from one stage to another is well registered. The vibration behavior was examined for the beams strengthened by carbon-fiber sheet before loading and at the intermediate stage of loading after the grouting of initial cracks. The obtained results show that the vibrodiagnostic approach is an effective tool for monitoring of cracking and for assessing the quality of measures aimed at strengthening concrete structures.

Keywords: Crack formation. experiment. mathematical modeling. reinforced concrete. vibrodiagnostics.

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Authors: Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian, Reza Dinarvand

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This paper is going to discuss two issues encountered in using PLAXIS. Both issues were monitored during application of PLAXIS to estimate the excavation-induced displacement. Column Soil Mixing (CSM) was applied to stabilise the excavation. It was understood that the estimated excavation induced deformation at the top of the CSM blocks highly depends on the material type defining pavement material adjacent to the CSM blocks. Cohesive material for pavement will result in the unrealistic connection between pavement and CSM even by defining an interface element. To find the most realistic approach, the interface defined in three different manners (1) no interface elements were applied (2) a non-cohesive soil layer was defined between pavement and CSM block to represent the friction between these materials (3) built-in interface elements in PLAXIS was used to define the boundary between the pavement and the CSM block. The result showed that the option 2 would result in more realistic results. The second issue was in the modelling of the contact line between the CSM block and an inclined layer underneath. The analysis result showed that the excavation-induced deformation highly depends on how the PLAXIS user defines the contact area. It was understood that if the contact area had defined as a point in which CSM block had intersected the layer underneath the estimated lateral displacement of CSM block would be unrealistically lower than the model in which the contact area was defined as a line.

Keywords: PLAXIS, FEM, CSM, excavation-induced deformation.

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Authors: M. J. Pourvaghar, Sh. Khoshemehry

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Adopting inappropriate body posture during addiction can cause muscular and skeletal deformities. This study is aimed at investigating the effects of a program of the selected corrective exercises on the kyphosis of addicted male patients. Materials and methods: This was a quasi-experimental study. This study has been carried out using the semi-experimental method. The subjects of the present study included 104 addicted men between 25 to 45 years of age. In 2014, these men were referred to one of the NA (Narcotic Anonymous) centres in Kashan in 2015. A total of 24 people suffering from drug withdrawal, who had abnormal kyphosis, were purposefully selected as a sample. The sample was randomly divided into two groups, experimental and control; each group consisted of 12 people. The experimental group participated in a training program for 12 weeks consisting of three 60 minute sessions per week. That includes strengthening, stretching and PNF exercises (deep stretching of the muscle). The control group did no exercise or corrective activity. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to assess normal distribution of data; and a paired t-test and covariance analysis test were used to assess the effectiveness of the exercises, with a significance level of P≤0.05 by using SPSS18. The results showed that three months of the selected corrective exercises had a significant effect (P≤ 0.005) on the correction of the kyphosis of the addicted male patients after three months of rehabilitation (drug withdrawal) in the experimental group, while there was no significant difference recorded in the control group (P≥0.05). The results show that exercise and corrective activities can be used as non-invasive and non-pharmacological methods to rehabilitate kyphosis abnormalities after drug withdrawal and treatment for addiction.

Keywords: Kyphosis, corrective exercises, addict, drug withdrawal.

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Authors: M. Wasy Akhtar

Abstract:

Multi-modal film boiling simulations are carried out on adaptive octree grids. The liquid-vapor interface is captured using the volume-of-fluid framework adjusted to account for exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy across the interface. Surface tension effects are included using a volumetric source term in the momentum equations. The phase change calculations are conducted based on the exact location and orientation of the interface; however, the source terms are calculated using the mixture variables to be consistent with the one field formulation used to represent the entire fluid domain. The numerical model on octree representation of the computational grid is first verified using test cases including advection tests in severely deforming velocity fields, gravity-based instabilities and bubble growth in uniformly superheated liquid under zero gravity. The model is then used to simulate both single and multi-modal film boiling simulations. The octree grid is dynamically adapted in order to maintain the highest grid resolution on the instability fronts using markers of interface location, volume fraction, and thermal gradients. The method thus provides an efficient platform to simulate fluid instabilities with or without phase change in the presence of body forces like gravity or shear layer instabilities.

Keywords: Boiling flows, dynamic octree grids, heat transfer, interface capturing, phase change.

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Authors: Shih-Bin Wang, Ping Yuan, Syu-Fang Liu, Ming-Jun Kuo

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By the application of an improved back-propagation neural network (BPNN), a model of current densities for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) with 10 layers is established in this study. To build the learning data of BPNN, Taguchi orthogonal array is applied to arrange the conditions of operating parameters, which totally 7 factors act as the inputs of BPNN. Also, the average current densities achieved by numerical method acts as the outputs of BPNN. Comparing with the direct solution, the learning errors for all learning data are smaller than 0.117%, and the predicting errors for 27 forecasting cases are less than 0.231%. The results show that the presented model effectively builds a mathematical algorithm to predict performance of a SOFC stack immediately in real time. Also, the calculating algorithms are applied to proceed with the optimization of the average current density for a SOFC stack. The operating performance window of a SOFC stack is found to be between 41137.11 and 53907.89. Furthermore, an inverse predicting model of operating parameters of a SOFC stack is developed here by the calculating algorithms of the improved BPNN, which is proved to effectively predict operating parameters to achieve a desired performance output of a SOFC stack.

Keywords: a SOFC stack, BPNN, inverse predicting model of operating parameters, optimization of the average current density

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Authors: Y. Zheng, W. Sun

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This paper describes a new approach which can be used to interpret the experimental creep deformation data obtained from miniaturized thin plate bending specimen test to the corresponding uniaxial data based on an inversed application of the reference stress method. The geometry of the thin plate is fully defined by the span of the support, l, the width, b, and the thickness, d. Firstly, analytical solutions for the steady-state, load-line creep deformation rate of the thin plates for a Norton’s power law under plane stress (b→0) and plane strain (b→∞) conditions were obtained, from which it can be seen that the load-line deformation rate of the thin plate under plane-stress conditions is much higher than that under the plane-strain conditions. Since analytical solution is not available for the plates with random b-values, finite element (FE) analyses are used to obtain the solutions. Based on the FE results obtained for various b/l ratios and creep exponent, n, as well as the analytical solutions under plane stress and plane strain conditions, an approximate, numerical solutions for the deformation rate are obtained by curve fitting. Using these solutions, a reference stress method is utilised to establish the conversion relationships between the applied load and the equivalent uniaxial stress and between the creep deformations of thin plate and the equivalent uniaxial creep strains. Finally, the accuracy of the empirical solution was assessed by using a set of “theoretical” experimental data.

Keywords: Bending, Creep, Miniature Specimen, Thin Plate.

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Authors: Manop Aorpimai, Ponthep Navakitkanok

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In this paper, the development of the ephemeris generation module used for the Thaichote satellite operations is presented. It is a vital part of the flight dynamics system, which comprises, the orbit determination, orbit propagation, event prediction and station-keeping maneouvre modules. In the generation of the spacecraft ephemeris data, the estimated orbital state vector from the orbit determination module is used as an initial condition. The equations of motion are then integrated forward in time to predict the satellite states. The higher geopotential harmonics, as well as other disturbing forces, are taken into account to resemble the environment in low-earth orbit. Using a highly accurate numerical integrator based on the Burlish-Stoer algorithm the ephemeris data can be generated for long-term predictions, by using a relatively small computation burden and short calculation time. Some events occurring during the prediction course that are related to the mission operations, such as the satellite’s rise/set viewed from the ground station, Earth and Moon eclipses, the drift in groundtrack as well as the drift in the local solar time of the orbital plane are all detected and reported. When combined with other modules to form a flight dynamics system, this application is aimed to be applied for the Thaichote satellite and successive Thailand’s Earth-observation missions. 

Keywords: Flight Dynamics System, Orbit Propagation, Satellite Ephemeris, Thailand’s Earth Observation Satellite.

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Authors: Y.C. Yeh, Y.S. Tsay, C.M. Chiang

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A good green building design project, designers should consider not only energy consumption, but also healthy and comfortable needs of inhabitants. In recent years, the Taiwan government paid attentions on both carbon reduction and indoor air quality issues, which be presented in the legislation of Building Codes and other regulations. Taiwan located in hot and humid climates, dampness in buildings leads to significant microbial pollution and building damage. This means that the high temperature and humidity present a serious indoor air quality issue. The interactions between vapor transfers and energy fluxes are essential for the whole building Heat Air and Moisture (HAM) response. However, a simulation tool with short calculation time, property accuracy and interface is needed for practical building design processes. In this research, we consider the vapor transfer phenomenon of building materials as well as temperature and humidity and energy consumption in a building space. The simulation bases on the EMPD method, which was performed by EnergyPlus, a simulation tool developed by DOE, to simulate the indoor moisture variation in a one-zone residential unit based on the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Method, which is more suitable for practical building design processes.

Keywords: Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Method, Moisture Buffering Effect, Interior Material, Green Material, EnergyPlus

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Authors: Ali Soleymani, Zulkarnain Md Ali, Md Jan Nordin

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This paper is a review on the aspects and approaches of design an image cryptosystem. First a general introduction given for cryptography and images encryption and followed by different techniques in image encryption and related works for each technique surveyed. Finally, general security analysis methods for encrypted images are mentioned.

Keywords: Image, cryptography, encryption, security, analysis.

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Authors: Yuri A. Gruber, Matheus Rosendo, Ulisses G. A. Casemiro, Klaus de Geus, Rafael T. Bee

Abstract:

Lightning strikes can cause severe negative impacts to the electrical sector causing direct damage to equipment as well as shutdowns, especially when occurring in power substations. In order to mitigate this problem, a meticulous planning of the power substation protection system is of vital importance. A critical part of this is the distribution of shielding wires through the substation, which creates a 3D imaginary protection mesh similar to a circus tarpaulin. Equipment enclosed in the volume defined by that 3D mesh is considered protected against lightning strikes. The use of traditional methods of longitudinal cutting analysis based on 2D CAD tools makes the process laborious and the results obtained may not guarantee satisfactory protection of electrical equipment. This work describes the application of a Game Engine to the problem of lightning protection of power substations providing the visualization of the 3D protection mesh, the amount of protected components and the highlight of equipment which remain unprotected. In addition, aspects regarding the implementation and the advantages of approaching the problem using Unreal® Engine 4 are described. In order to validate results, a comparison with traditional 2D methods is applied to the same case study to which the proposed technique has been applied. Finally, a comparative study involving different levels of protection using the technique developed in this work is presented, showing that modern game engines can be a powerful accessory for simulations in several areas of engineering.

Keywords: Game engine, rolling spheres method, substation protection, UE4, Unreal® Engine 4.

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Authors: Willi Zschiebsch, Alrik Dargel, Sebastian Spitzer, Philipp Johst, Robert Böhm, Niels Modler

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In this article, we investigate an approach that digitally links individual development process steps by using the drive shaft of an aircraft engine as representative example of a fiber polymer composite. Such high-performance lightweight composite structures have many adjustable parameters that influence the mechanical properties. Only a combination of optimal parameter values can lead to energy efficient lightweight structures. The development tools required for the Engineering Design Process (EDP) are often isolated solutions and their compatibility with each other is limited. A digital framework is presented in this study, which allows individual specialised tools to be linked via the generated data in such a way that automated optimization across programs becomes possible. This is demonstrated using the example of linking geometry generation with numerical structural analysis. The proposed digital framework for automated design optimization demonstrates the feasibility of developing a complete digital approach to design optimization. The methodology shows promising potential for achieving optimal solutions in terms of mass, material utilization, eigenfrequency and deformation under lateral load with less development effort. The development of such a framework is an important step towards promoting a more efficient design approach that can lead to stable and balanced results.

Keywords: Digital Linked Process, composite, CFRP, multi-objective, EDP, NSGA-2, NSGA-3, TPE.

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Authors: C. S. Saini

Abstract:

The composite flour blend consisting of corn, pearl millet, black gram and wheat bran in the ratio of 80:5:10:5 was taken to prepare the extruded product and their effect on physical properties of extrudate was studied. The extrusion process was conducted in laboratory by using twin screw extruder. The physical characteristics evaluated include lateral expansion, bulk density, water absorption index, water solubility index, and rehydration ratio and moisture retention. The Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD) was used to decide the level of processing variables i.e. feed moisture content (%), screw speed (rpm), and barrel temperature (oC) for the experiment. The data obtained after extrusion process were analyzed by using response surface methodology. A second order polynomial model for the dependent variables was established to fit the experimental data. The numerical optimization studies resulted in 127°C of barrel temperature, 246 rpm of screw speed, and 14.5% of feed moisture as optimum variables to produce acceptable extruded product. The responses predicted by the software for the optimum process condition resulted in lateral expansion 126%, bulk density 0.28 g/cm3, water absorption index 4.10 g/g, water solubility index 39.90%, rehydration ratio 544% and moisture retention 11.90% with 75% desirability.

Keywords: Black gram, corn flour, extrusion, physical characteristics.

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Authors: R. B. Ibrahim, M. S. Argungu, I. M. Mungadi

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It is obvious in this present time, internet has become an indispensable part of human life since its inception. The Internet has provided diverse opportunities to make life so easy for human beings, through the adoption of various channels. Among these channels are email, internet banking, video conferencing, and the like. Email is one of the easiest means of communication hugely accepted among individuals and organizations globally. But over decades the security integrity of this platform has been challenged with malicious activities like Phishing. Email phishing is designed by phishers to fool the recipient into handing over sensitive personal information such as passwords, credit card numbers, account credentials, social security numbers, etc. This activity has caused a lot of financial damage to email users globally which has resulted in bankruptcy, sudden death of victims, and other health-related sicknesses. Although many methods have been proposed to detect email phishing, in this research, the results of multiple machine-learning methods for predicting email phishing have been compared with the use of filter-wrapper feature selection. It is worth noting that all three models performed substantially but one outperformed the other. The dataset used for these models is obtained from Kaggle online data repository, while three classifiers: decision tree, Naïve Bayes, and Logistic regression are ensemble (Bagging) respectively. Results from the study show that the Decision Tree (CART) bagging ensemble recorded the highest accuracy of 98.13% using PEF (Phishing Essential Features). This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, hybrid, filter-wrapper, phishing.

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Authors: M. Daoud-Marrakchi, S. Fendri-Elouze, Ch. Ill, B. Bejar-Ghadhab

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The aim of this research is to propose a Measurement Scale for Patient Satisfaction (MSPS) in the context of Tunisian private clinics. This scale is developed using value management methods and is validated by statistic tools with SPSS.

Keywords: Functional analysis, Patient satisfaction, Questionnaire, Reliability, Validity.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft supplier selection process, which is considered as a fundamental supply chain problem, is a multi-criteria group decision problem that has a significant impact on the performance of the entire supply chain. In practical situations are frequently incomplete and uncertain information, making it difficult for decision-makers to communicate their opinions on candidates with precise and definite values. To solve the aircraft supplier selection problem in an environment of incomplete and uncertain information, proximity measure method is proposed. It uses determinate fuzzy numbers. The weights of each decision maker are equally predetermined and the entropic criteria weights are calculated using each decision maker's decision matrix. Additionally, determinate fuzzy numbers, it is proposed to use the weighted normalized Minkowski distance function and Hausdorff distance function to determine the ranking order patterns of alternatives. A numerical example for aircraft supplier selection is provided to further demonstrate the applicability, effectiveness, validity and rationality of the proposed method.

Keywords: Aircraft supplier selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, determinate fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Minkowski distance function, Hausdorff distance function, PMM, MCDM

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Authors: H. Anıl, G. Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations, since the geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning and time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Doğal Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was predicted for the first one-week and first two-weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting.

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: Risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk.

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Authors: Werner Sandmann, Verena Wolf

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Stochastic models of biological networks are well established in systems biology, where the computational treatment of such models is often focused on the solution of the so-called chemical master equation via stochastic simulation algorithms. In contrast to this, the development of storage-efficient model representations that are directly suitable for computer implementation has received significantly less attention. Instead, a model is usually described in terms of a stochastic process or a "higher-level paradigm" with graphical representation such as e.g. a stochastic Petri net. A serious problem then arises due to the exponential growth of the model-s state space which is in fact a main reason for the popularity of stochastic simulation since simulation suffers less from the state space explosion than non-simulative numerical solution techniques. In this paper we present transition class models for the representation of biological network models, a compact mathematical formalism that circumvents state space explosion. Transition class models can also serve as an interface between different higher level modeling paradigms, stochastic processes and the implementation coded in a programming language. Besides, the compact model representation provides the opportunity to apply non-simulative solution techniques thereby preserving the possible use of stochastic simulation. Illustrative examples of transition class representations are given for an enzyme-catalyzed substrate conversion and a part of the bacteriophage λ lysis/lysogeny pathway.

Keywords: Computational Modeling, Biological Networks, Stochastic Models, Markov Chains, Transition Class Models.

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Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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Authors: Hadas Sopher, Davide Schaumann, Yehuda E. Kalay

Abstract:

This paper addresses the shortcomings of architectural computation tools in representing human behavior in built environments, prior to construction and occupancy of those environments. Evaluating whether a design fits the needs of its future users is currently done solely post construction, or is based on the knowledge and intuition of the designer. This issue is of high importance when designing complex buildings such as hospitals, where the quality of treatment as well as patient and staff satisfaction are of major concern. Existing computational pre-occupancy human behavior evaluation methods are geared mainly to test ergonomic issues, such as wheelchair accessibility, emergency egress, etc. As such, they rely on Agent Based Modeling (ABM) techniques, which emphasize the individual user. Yet we know that most human activities are social, and involve a number of actors working together, which ABM methods cannot handle. Therefore, we present an event-based model that manages the interaction between multiple Actors, Spaces, and Activities, to describe dynamically how people use spaces. This approach requires expanding the computational representation of Actors beyond their physical description, to include psychological, social, cultural, and other parameters. The model presented in this paper includes cognitive abilities and rules that describe the response of actors to their physical and social surroundings, based on the actors’ internal status. The model has been applied in a simulation of hospital wards, and showed adaptability to a wide variety of situated behaviors and interactions.

Keywords: Agent based modeling, architectural design evaluation, event modeling, human behavior simulation, spatial cognition.

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Authors: Min-Hsun Kuo, Yun-Shiow Chen

Abstract:

The running logs of a process hold valuable information about its executed activity behavior and generated activity logic structure. Theses informative logs can be extracted, analyzed and utilized to improve the efficiencies of the process's execution and conduction. One of the techniques used to accomplish the process improvement is called as process mining. To mine similar processes is such an improvement mission in process mining. Rather than directly mining similar processes using a single comparing coefficient or a complicate fitness function, this paper presents a simplified heuristic process mining algorithm with two similarity comparisons that are able to relatively conform the activity logic sequences (traces) of mining processes with those of a normalized (regularized) one. The relative process conformance is to find which of the mining processes match the required activity sequences and relationships, further for necessary and sufficient applications of the mined processes to process improvements. One similarity presented is defined by the relationships in terms of the number of similar activity sequences existing in different processes; another similarity expresses the degree of the similar (identical) activity sequences among the conforming processes. Since these two similarities are with respect to certain typical behavior (activity sequences) occurred in an entire process, the common problems, such as the inappropriateness of an absolute comparison and the incapability of an intrinsic information elicitation, which are often appeared in other process conforming techniques, can be solved by the relative process comparison presented in this paper. To demonstrate the potentiality of the proposed algorithm, a numerical example is illustrated.

Keywords: process mining, process similarity, artificial intelligence, process conformance.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: M. Hossain, H. P. Zhu, A. B. Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical investigation of regime transition of flow of ellipsoidal particles and a comparison with that of spherical particle assembly. Particle assemblies constituting spherical and ellipsoidal particle of 2.5:1 aspect ratio are examined at separate instances in similar flow conditions in a shear cell model that is numerically developed based on the discrete element method. Correlations among elastically scaled stress, kinetically scaled stress, coordination number and volume fraction are investigated, and show important similarities and differences for the spherical and ellipsoidal particle assemblies. In particular, volume fractions at points of regime transition are identified for both types of particles. It is found that compared with spherical particle assembly, ellipsoidal particle assembly has higher volume fraction for the quasistatic to intermediate regime transition and lower volume fraction for the intermediate to inertial regime transition. Finally, the relationship between coordination number and volume fraction shows strikingly distinct features for the two cases, suggesting that different from spherical particles, the effect of the shear rate on the coordination number is not significant for ellipsoidal particles. This work provides a glimpse of currently running work on one of the most attractive scopes of research in this field and has a wide prospect in understanding rheology of more complex shaped particles in light of the strong basis of simpler spherical particle rheology.

Keywords: Discrete element method, granular rheology, non-spherical particles, regime transition

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