Search results for: Kohlbergian approach

Authors: T. Balogh, L. G. Vigh

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Seismic design may require non-conventional concept, due to the fact that the stiffness and layout of the structure have a great effect on the overall structural behaviour, on the seismic load intensity as well as on the internal force distribution. To find an economical and optimal structural configuration the key issue is the optimal design of the lateral load resisting system. This paper focuses on the optimal design of regular, concentric braced frame (CBF) multi-storey steel building structures. The optimal configurations are determined by a numerical method using genetic algorithm approach, developed by the authors. Aim is to find structural configurations with minimum structural cost. The design constraints of objective function are assigned in accordance with Eurocode 3 and Eurocode 8 guidelines. In this paper the results are presented for various building geometries, different seismic intensities, and levels of energy dissipation.

Keywords: Dissipative Structures, Genetic Algorithm, Seismic Effects, Structural Optimization.

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Authors: Antonis Constantinides, Christos Yiallouras, Christakis Damianou

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The application of today's semiconductor transistors in high power UHF DVB-T linear amplifiers has evolved significantly by utilizing LDMOS technology. This fact provides engineers with the option to design a single transistor signal amplifier which enables output power and linearity that was unobtainable previously using bipolar junction transistors or later type first generation MOSFETS. The quiescent current stability in terms of thermal variations of the LDMOS guarantees a robust operation in any topology of DVB-T signal amplifiers. Otherwise, progressively uncontrolled heat dissipation enhancement on the LDMOS case can degrade the amplifier’s crucial parameters in regards to the gain, linearity and RF stability, resulting in dysfunctional operation or a total destruction of the unit. This paper presents one more sophisticated approach from the traditional biasing circuits used so far in LDMOS DVB-T amplifiers. It utilizes a microprocessor control technology, providing stability in topologies where IDQ must be perfectly accurate.

Keywords: Amplifier, DVB-T, LDMOS, MOSFETS.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis that is a quantitative study of the disciplines of science based on published literature to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The publication under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: Food Supply Chain, Risk Assessment, Scientometrics, Web of science.

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Authors: M. R. Abbasifard, M. Rahgozar, A. Bayati, P. Pournemati

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One important problem in today organizations is the existence of non-integrated information systems, inconsistency and lack of suitable correlations between legacy and modern systems. One main solution is to transfer the local databases into a global one. In this regards we need to extract the data structures from the legacy systems and integrate them with the new technology systems. In legacy systems, huge amounts of a data are stored in legacy databases. They require particular attention since they need more efforts to be normalized, reformatted and moved to the modern database environments. Designing the new integrated (global) database architecture and applying the reverse engineering requires data normalization. This paper proposes the use of database reverse engineering in order to integrate legacy and modern databases in organizations. The suggested approach consists of methods and techniques for generating data transformation rules needed for the data structure normalization.

Keywords: Reverse Engineering, Database Integration, System Integration, Data Structure Normalization

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Authors: Alina Trifan, António J. R. Neves

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Although most digital cameras acquire images in a raw format, based on a Color Filter Array that arranges RGB color filters on a square grid of photosensors, most image compression techniques do not use the raw data; instead, they use the rgb result of an interpolation algorithm of the raw data. This approach is inefficient and by performing a lossless compression of the raw data, followed by pixel interpolation, digital cameras could be more power efficient and provide images with increased resolution given that the interpolation step could be shifted to an external processing unit. In this paper, we conduct a survey on the use of lossless compression algorithms with raw Bayer images. Moreover, in order to reduce the effect of the transition between colors that increase the entropy of the raw Bayer image, we split the image into three new images corresponding to each channel (red, green and blue) and we study the same compression algorithms applied to each one individually. This simple pre-processing stage allows an improvement of more than 15% in predictive based methods.

Keywords: Bayer images, CFA, losseless compression, image coding standards.

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Authors: Abdu Masanawa Sagir

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In this paper, linear multistep technique using power series as the basis function is used to develop the block methods which are suitable for generating direct solution of the special second order ordinary differential equations of the form y′′ = f(x,y), a < = x < = b with associated initial or boundary conditions. The continuaous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain two different three discrete schemes, each of order (4,4,4)T, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. The computational burden and computer time wastage involved in the usual reduction of second order problem into system of first order equations are avoided by this approach. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on linear and non-linear ordinary differential equations whose solutions are oscillatory or nearly periodic in nature, and the results obtained compared favourably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, Hybrid, Linear Multistep Method, Self – starting, Special Second Order.

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Authors: Ahmed Mohammed K. Alsalama

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Recommendation systems are widely used in e-commerce applications. The engine of a current recommendation system recommends items to a particular user based on user preferences and previous high ratings. Various recommendation schemes such as collaborative filtering and content-based approaches are used to build a recommendation system. Most of current recommendation systems were developed to fit a certain domain such as books, articles, and movies. We propose1 a hybrid framework recommendation system to be applied on two dimensional spaces (User × Item) with a large number of Users and a small number of Items. Moreover, our proposed framework makes use of both favorite and non-favorite items of a particular user. The proposed framework is built upon the integration of association rules mining and the content-based approach. The results of experiments show that our proposed framework can provide accurate recommendations to users.

Keywords: Data Mining, Association Rules, Recommendation Systems, Hybrid Systems.

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Authors: Neamat El Gayar

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Learning using labeled and unlabelled data has received considerable amount of attention in the machine learning community due its potential in reducing the need for expensive labeled data. In this work we present a new method for combining labeled and unlabeled data based on classifier ensembles. The model we propose assumes each classifier in the ensemble observes the input using different set of features. Classifiers are initially trained using some labeled samples. The trained classifiers learn further through labeling the unknown patterns using a teaching signals that is generated using the decision of the classifier ensemble, i.e. the classifiers self-supervise each other. Experiments on a set of object images are presented. Our experiments investigate different classifier models, different fusing techniques, different training sizes and different input features. Experimental results reveal that the proposed self-supervised ensemble learning approach reduces classification error over the single classifier and the traditional ensemble classifier approachs.

Keywords: Multiple Classifier Systems, classifier ensembles, learning using labeled and unlabelled data, K-nearest neighbor classifier, Bayes classifier.

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Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

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This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21^st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: Fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow.

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Authors: D. Prangchumpol

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Server provisioning is one of the most attractive topics in virtualization systems. Virtualization is a method of running multiple independent virtual operating systems on a single physical computer. It is a way of maximizing physical resources to maximize the investment in hardware. Additionally, it can help to consolidate servers, improve hardware utilization and reduce the consumption of power and physical space in the data center. However, management of heterogeneous workloads, especially for resource utilization of the server, or so called provisioning becomes a challenge. In this paper, a new concept for managing workloads based on user behavior is presented. The experimental results show that user behaviors are different in each type of service workload and time. Understanding user behaviors may improve the efficiency of management in provisioning concept. This preliminary study may be an approach to improve management of data centers running heterogeneous workloads for provisioning in virtualization system.

Keywords: association rule, provisioning, server virtualization.

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Authors: M. Zerikat, S. Chekroun

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This paper proposes an effective algorithm approach to hybrid control systems combining fuzzy logic and conventional control techniques of controlling the speed of induction motor assumed to operate in high-performance drives environment. The introducing of fuzzy logic in the control systems helps to achieve good dynamical response, disturbance rejection and low sensibility to parameter variations and external influences. Some fundamentals of the fuzzy logic control are preliminary illustrated. The developed control algorithm is robust, efficient and simple. It also assures precise trajectory tracking with the prescribed dynamics. Experimental results have shown excellent tracking performance of the proposed control system, and have convincingly demonstrated the validity and the usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy controller in high-performance drives with parameter and load uncertainties. Satisfactory performance was observed for most reference tracks.

Keywords: Fuzzy controller, high-performance, inductionmotor, intelligent control, robustness.

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Authors: Meredith Stevenson, John E. Porter

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Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

Keywords: Fuzzy forecasting, fuzzy time series, fuzzified enrollments, time-invariant model

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Authors: Arellano Karina, Diego Avila-Pesántez, Leticia Vaca-Cárdenas, Alberto Arellano, Carmen Mantilla

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Nowadays, security threats in Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are an essential and latent concern for people in charge of security in a corporate network, because, every day, new Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks are developed. These affect the business continuity of an organization, regarding confidentiality, availability, and integrity of services, causing frequent losses of both information and money. The purpose of this study is to establish the necessary measures to mitigate DoS threats, which affect the availability of VoIP systems, based on the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). A Security Model called MS-DoS-SIP is proposed, which is based on two approaches. The first one analyzes the recommendations of international security standards. The second approach takes into account weaknesses and threats. The implementation of this model in a VoIP simulated system allowed to minimize the present vulnerabilities in 92% and increase the availability time of the VoIP service into an organization.

Keywords: Denial-of-service SIP attacks, MS-DoS-SIP, security model, VoIP-SIP vulnerabilities.

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Authors: Simon Samwel Msanjila

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Networked environments which provide platforms for business organizations are configured in different forms depending on many factors including life time, member characteristics, communication structure, and business objectives, among others. With continuing advances in digital technologies the distance has become a less barrier for business minded collaboration among organizations. With the need and ease to make business collaborate nowadays organizations are sometimes forced to co-work with others that are either unknown or less known to them in terms of history and performance. A promising approach for sustaining established collaboration has been establishment of trust relationship among organizations based on assessed trustworthiness for each participating organization. It has been stated in research that trust in organization is dynamic and thus assessment of trust level must address such dynamic nature. This paper assesses relevant aspects of trust and applies the assessed concepts to propose a semi-automated system for the management of Sustainability and Evolution of trust in organizations participating in specific objective in a networked organizations environment.

Keywords: Trust evolution, trust sustainability, networked organizations, dynamic trust.

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Authors: M. Kaggwa

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Technology or lack of it will play an important role in Africa-s effort to achieve inclusive development. Although a key determinant of competitiveness, new technology can exacerbate exclusion of the majority from the mainstream economic activities. To minimise potential technology exclusion while leveraging its critical role in African-s development, requires insight into technology diffusion process. Using system dynamics approach, a technology diffusion model is presented. The frequency of interaction of people exposed to and those not exposed to technology, and the technology adoption rate - the fraction of people who embrace new technologies once they are exposed, are identified as the broad factors critical to technology diffusion to wider society enabling more people to be part of the economic growth process. Based on simulation results, it is recommends that these two broad factors should form part of national policy aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable development in Africa.

Keywords: Inclusive Development, System Dynamics, Technology, Technology diffusion.

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Authors: Mourad Moussa, Ali Douik, Hassani Messaoud

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In this paper, we present a comparative study between two computer vision systems for objects recognition and tracking, these algorithms describe two different approach based on regions constituted by a set of pixels which parameterized objects in shot sequences. For the image segmentation and objects detection, the FCM technique is used, the overlapping between cluster's distribution is minimized by the use of suitable color space (other that the RGB one). The first technique takes into account a priori probabilities governing the computation of various clusters to track objects. A Parzen kernel method is described and allows identifying the players in each frame, we also show the importance of standard deviation value research of the Gaussian probability density function. Region matching is carried out by an algorithm that operates on the Mahalanobis distance between region descriptors in two subsequent frames and uses singular value decomposition to compute a set of correspondences satisfying both the principle of proximity and the principle of exclusion.

Keywords: Image segmentation, objects tracking, Parzen window, singular value decomposition, target recognition.

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Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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Authors: Suhartini M. Jainury, Rizauddin Ramli, Mohd Nizam A. Rahman

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Lean, which was initially developed by Toyota, is widely implemented in other companies to improve competitiveness. This research is an attempt to identify the adoption of lean in the production system of Malaysian car manufacturer, Proton using case study approach. To gain the in-depth information regarding lean implementation, an activity on the assembly line called Set Parts Supply (SPS) was studied. The result indicates that by using lean principles, tools and techniques in the implementation of SPS enabled to achieve the goals on safety, quality, cost, delivery and morale. The implementation increased the size of the workspace, improved the quality of assembly and the delivery of parts supply, reduced the manpower, achieved cost savings on electricity and also increased the motivation of manpower in respect of attendance at work. A framework of SPS implementation is suggested as a contribution for lean practices in production system.

Keywords: Assembly line, lean manufacturing, production, parts supply.

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Authors: M. Pushpalatha, Revathi Venkataraman, T. Ramarao

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Trust and Energy consumption is the most challenging issue in routing protocol design for Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), since mobile nodes are battery powered and nodes behaviour are unpredictable. Furthermore replacing and recharging batteries and making nodes co-operative is often impossible in critical environments like military applications. In this paper, we propose a trust based energy aware routing model in MANET. During route discovery, node with more trust and maximum energy capacity is selected as a router based on a parameter called 'Reliability'. Route request from the source is accepted by a node only if its reliability is high. Otherwise, the route request is discarded. This approach forms a reliable route from source to destination thus increasing network life time, improving energy utilization and decreasing number of packet loss during transmission.

Keywords: Mobile Ad Hoc Networks, Trust, Energy, Reliability, AODV, TEA-AODV.

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Authors: Andreas Jede, Frank Teuteberg

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Cloud computing (CC) has already gained overall appreciation in research and practice. Whereas the willingness to integrate cloud services in various IT environments is still unbroken, the previous CC procurement processes run mostly in an unorganized and non-standardized way. In practice, a sufficiently specific, yet applicable business process for the important acquisition phase is often lacking. And research does not appropriately remedy this deficiency yet. Therefore, this paper introduces a field-tested approach for CC procurement. Based on an extensive literature review and augmented by expert interviews, we designed a model that is validated and further refined through an in-depth real-life case study. For the detailed process description, we apply the event-driven process chain notation (EPC). The gained valuable insights into the case study may help CC research to shift to a more socio-technical area. For practice, next to giving useful organizational instructions we will provide extended checklists and lessons learned.

Keywords: Cloud Procurement Process, IT-Organization, Event-driven Process Chain, In-depth Case Study.

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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Authors: Krzysztof Walczak

Abstract:

Fractional delay FIR filters design method based on the differential evolution algorithm is presented. Differential evolution is an evolutionary algorithm for solving a global optimization problems in the continuous search space. In the proposed approach, an evolutionary algorithm is used to determine the coefficients of a fractional delay FIR filter based on the Farrow structure. Basic differential evolution is enhanced with a restricted mating technique, which improves the algorithm performance in terms of convergence speed and obtained solution. Evolutionary optimization is carried out by minimizing an objective function which is based on the amplitude response and phase delay errors. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm leads to a reduction in the amplitude response and phase delay errors relative to those achieved with the Least-Squares method.

Keywords: Fractional Delay Filters, Farrow Structure, Evolutionary Computation, Differential Evolution

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Authors: P. Subbaraj, V. Rajasekaran

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This paper presents a new approach using Combined Artificial Neural Network (CANN) module for daily peak load forecasting. Five different computational techniques –Constrained method, Unconstrained method, Evolutionary Programming (EP), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) – have been used to identify the CANN module for peak load forecasting. In this paper, a set of neural networks has been trained with different architecture and training parameters. The networks are trained and tested for the actual load data of Chennai city (India). A set of better trained conventional ANNs are selected to develop a CANN module using different algorithms instead of using one best conventional ANN. Obtained results using CANN module confirm its validity.

Keywords: Combined ANN, Evolutionary Programming, Particle Swarm Optimization, Genetic Algorithm and Peak load forecasting.

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Authors: C.Kia, M.R.Arshad, A.H.Adom, P.A.Wilson

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This paper presents recent work on the improvement of the robotics vision based control strategy for underwater pipeline tracking system. The study focuses on developing image processing algorithms and a fuzzy inference system for the analysis of the terrain. The main goal is to implement the supervisory fuzzy learning control technique to reduce the errors on navigation decision due to the pipeline occlusion problem. The system developed is capable of interpreting underwater images containing occluded pipeline, seabed and other unwanted noise. The algorithm proposed in previous work does not explore the cooperation between fuzzy controllers, knowledge and learnt data to improve the outputs for underwater pipeline tracking. Computer simulations and prototype simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. The system accuracy level has also been discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Underwater target tracking, Autonomous underwater vehicles, Artificial intelligence, Simulations, Robot navigation, Vision system.

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Authors: Abdallah A. Alshennawy, Ayman A. Aly

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The fuzzy technique is an operator introduced in order to simulate at a mathematical level the compensatory behavior in process of decision making or subjective evaluation. The following paper introduces such operators on hand of computer vision application. In this paper a novel method based on fuzzy logic reasoning strategy is proposed for edge detection in digital images without determining the threshold value. The proposed approach begins by segmenting the images into regions using floating 3x3 binary matrix. The edge pixels are mapped to a range of values distinct from each other. The robustness of the proposed method results for different captured images are compared to those obtained with the linear Sobel operator. It is gave a permanent effect in the lines smoothness and straightness for the straight lines and good roundness for the curved lines. In the same time the corners get sharper and can be defined easily.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Edge detection, Image processing, computer vision, Mechanical parts, Measurement.

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: R. J. Chang

Abstract:

A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: Cyclostationary, Duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal signal and white noise.

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Authors: Khaled. M. Faqih

Abstract:

A model of vortex wake is suggested to determine the induced power during animal hovering flight. The wake is modeled by a series of equi-spaced rigid rectangular vortex plates, positioned horizontally and moving vertically downwards with identical speeds; each plate is generated during powering of the functionally wing stroke. The vortex representation of the wake considered in the current theory allows a considerable loss of momentum to occur. The current approach accords well with the nature of the wingbeat since it considers the unsteadiness in the wake as an important fluid dynamical characteristic. Induced power in hovering is calculated as the aerodynamic power required to generate the vortex wake system. Specific mean induced power to mean wing tip velocity ratio is determined by solely the normal spacing parameter (f) for a given wing stroke amplitude. The current theory gives much higher specific induced power estimate than anticipated by classical methods.

Keywords: vortex theory, hovering flight, induced power, Prandlt's tip theory.

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

It is suggested to evaluate environmental performance of energy sector using Data Envelopment Analysis with nondiscretionary factors (DEA-ND) with relative indicators as inputs and outputs. The latter allows for comparison of the objects essentially different in size. Inclusion of non-discretionary factors serves separation of the indicators that are beyond the control of the objects. A virtual perfect object comprised of maximal outputs and minimal inputs was added to the group of actual ones. In this setting, explicit solution of the DEA-ND problem was obtained. Energy sector of the United States was analyzed using suggested approach for the period of 1980 – 2006 with expected values of economic indicators for 2030 used for forming the perfect object. It was obtained that environmental performance has been increasing steadily for the period from 7.7% through 50.0% but still remains well below the prospected level

Keywords: DEA with Non Discretionary Factors, Environmental Performance, Energy Sector, Explicit Solution, Perfect Object.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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