Search results for: high risk cardiac patients.

Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux

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Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.

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Authors: Emad Alenany, M. Adel El-Baz

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In this paper, the flow of different classes of patients into a hospital is modelled and analyzed by using the queueing network analyzer (QNA) algorithm and discrete event simulation. Input data for QNA are the rate and variability parameters of the arrival and service times in addition to the number of servers in each facility. Patient flows mostly match real flow for a hospital in Egypt. Based on the analysis of the waiting times, two approaches are suggested for improving performance: Separating patients into service groups, and adopting different service policies for sequencing patients through hospital units. The separation of a specific group of patients, with higher performance target, to be served separately from the rest of patients requiring lower performance target, requires the same capacity while improves performance for the selected group of patients with higher target. Besides, it is shown that adopting the shortest processing time and shortest remaining processing time service policies among other tested policies would results in, respectively, 11.47% and 13.75% reduction in average waiting time relative to first come first served policy.

Keywords: Queueing network, discrete-event simulation, health applications, SPT.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Dwitya Elvira, Raveinal Masri, Rohayat Bilmahdi

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) pandemic increased significantly worldwide. The rise in cases of HIV/AIDS was also followed by an increase in the incidence of opportunistic infection, with tuberculosis being the most opportunistic infection found in HIV/AIDS and the main cause of mortality in HIV/AIDS patients. Diagnosis of tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS patients is often difficult because of the uncommon symptom in HIV/AIDS patients compared to those without the disease. Thus, diagnostic tools are required that are more effective and efficient to diagnose tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS. CXCL-10/IP-10 is a chemokine that binds to the CXCR3 receptor found in HIV/AIDS patients with a weakened immune system. Tuberculosis infection in HIV/AIDS activates chemokine IP-10 in urine, which is used as a marker for diagnosis of infection. The aim of this study was to prove whether IP-10 urine can be a biomarker diagnosis of active lung tuberculosis in HIV-AIDS patients. Design of this study is a cross sectional study involving HIV/AIDS patients with lung tuberculosis as the subject of this study. Forty-seven HIV/AIDS patients with tuberculosis based on clinical and biochemical laboratory were asked to collect urine samples and IP-10/CXCL-10 urine being measured using ELISA method with 18 healthy human urine samples as control. Forty-seven patients diagnosed as HIV/AIDS were included as a subject of this study. HIV/AIDS were more common in male than in women with the percentage in male 85.1% vs. 14.5% of women. In this study, most diagnosed patients were aged 31-40 years old, followed by those 21-30 years, and > 40 years old, with one case diagnosed at age less than 20 years of age. From the result of the urine IP-10 using ELISA method, there was significant increase of the mean value of IP-10 urine in patients with TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection compared to the healthy control with mean 61.05 pg/mL ± 78.01 pg/mL vs. mean 17.2 pg/mL. Based on this research, there was significant increase of urine IP-10/CXCL-10 in active lung tuberculosis with HIV/AIDS compared to the healthy control. From this finding, it is necessary to conduct further research into whether urine IP-10/CXCL-10 plays a significant role in TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection, which can also be used as a biomarker in the early diagnosis of TB-HIV.

Keywords: Chemokine, IP-10 urine, HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis.

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Authors: Firas Salih, Luban Hameed, Afaf Kamil, Armin Bolz

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Diagnostic and detection of the arterial stiffness is very important; which gives indication of the associated increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. To make a cheap and easy method for general screening technique to avoid the future cardiovascular complexes , due to the rising of the arterial stiffness ; a proposed algorithm depending on photoplethysmogram to be used. The photoplethysmograph signals would be processed in MATLAB. The signal will be filtered, baseline wandering removed, peaks and valleys detected and normalization of the signals should be achieved .The area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmogram pulse curve is calculated using trapezoidal algorithm ; then will used in cooperation with other parameters such as age, height, blood pressure in neural network for arterial stiffness detection. The Neural network were implemented with sensitivity of 80%, accuracy 85% and specificity of 90% were got from the patients data. It is concluded that neural network can detect the arterial STIFFNESS depending on risk factor parameters.

Keywords: Arterial stiffness, area under the catacrotic phase of the photoplethysmograph pulse, neural network

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

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Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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Authors: Mai Miyabe, Taku Fukushima, Takashi Yoshino, Aguri Shigeno

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The need for multilingual communication in Japan has increased due to an increase in the number of foreigners in the country. When people communicate in their nonnative language, the differences in language prevent mutual understanding among the communicating individuals. In the medical field, communication between the hospital staff and patients is a serious problem. Currently, medical translators accompany patients to medical care facilities, and the demand for medical translators is increasing. However, medical translators cannot necessarily provide support, especially in cases in which round-the-clock support is required or in case of emergencies. The medical field has high expectations from information technology. Hence, a system that supports accurate multilingual communication is required. Despite recent advances in machine translation technology, it is very difficult to obtain highly accurate translations. We have developed a support system called M3 for multilingual medical reception. M3 provides support functions that aid foreign patients in the following respects: conversation, questionnaires, reception procedures, and hospital navigation; it also has a Q&A function. Users can operate M3 using a touch screen and receive text-based support. In addition, M3 uses accurate translation tools called parallel texts to facilitate reliable communication through conversations between the hospital staff and the patients. However, if there is no parallel text that expresses what users want to communicate, the users cannot communicate. In this study, we have developed a circulating support environment for multilingual medical communication using parallel texts. The proposed environment can circulate necessary parallel texts through the following procedure: (1) a user provides feedback about the necessary parallel texts, following which (2) these parallel texts are created and evaluated.

Keywords: multilingual medical communication, parallel texts.

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Authors: Rainer Schneider, Stephan Lau, Levin Kuhlmann, Simon Vogrin, Maciej Gratkowski, Mark Cook, Jens Haueisen

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Cardiac pulse-related artifacts in the EEG recorded simultaneously with fMRI are complex and highly variable. Their effective removal is an unsolved problem. Our aim is to develop an adaptive removal algorithm based on the matching pursuit (MP) technique and to compare it to established methods using a visual evoked potential (VEP). We recorded the VEP inside the static magnetic field of an MR scanner (with artifacts) as well as in an electrically shielded room (artifact free). The MP-based artifact removal outperformed average artifact subtraction (AAS) and optimal basis set removal (OBS) in terms of restoring the EEG field map topography of the VEP. Subsequently, a dipole model was fitted to the VEP under each condition using a realistic boundary element head model. The source location of the VEP recorded inside the MR scanner was closest to that of the artifact free VEP after cleaning with the MP-based algorithm as well as with AAS. While none of the tested algorithms offered complete removal, MP showed promising results due to its ability to adapt to variations of latency, frequency and amplitude of individual artifact occurrences while still utilizing a common template.

Keywords: matching pursuit, ballistocardiogram, artifactremoval, EEG/fMRI.

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

Abstract:

For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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Authors: Hamed Alizadeh Dashagholi, Hossein Yousefi-Banaem, Mina Naeimi

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Current study established for EEG signal analysis in patients with language disorder. Language disorder can be defined as meaningful delay in the use or understanding of spoken or written language. The disorder can include the content or meaning of language, its form, or its use. Here we applied Z-score, power spectrum, and coherence methods to discriminate the language disorder data from healthy ones. Power spectrum of each channel in alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and theta frequency bands was measured. In addition, intra hemispheric Z-score obtained by scoring algorithm. Obtained results showed high Z-score and power spectrum in posterior regions. Therefore, we can conclude that peoples with language disorder have high brain activity in frontal region of brain in comparison with healthy peoples. Results showed that high coherence correlates with irregularities in the ERP and is often found during complex task, whereas low coherence is often found in pathological conditions. The results of the Z-score analysis of the brain dynamics showed higher Z-score peak frequency in delta, theta and beta sub bands of Language Disorder patients. In this analysis there were activity signs in both hemispheres and the left-dominant hemisphere was more active than the right.

Keywords: EEG, electroencephalography, coherence methods, language disorder, power spectrum, z-score.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

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This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Mecheri Zeid Belmecheri, Maamar Ahfir, Izzet Kale

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Automatic cardiac auscultation is still a subject of research in order to establish an objective diagnosis. Recorded heart sounds as Phonocardiogram (PCG) signals can be used for automatic segmentation into components that have clinical meanings. These are the first sound, S1, the second sound, S2, and the systolic and diastolic components, respectively. In this paper, an automatic method is proposed for the robust segmentation of heart sounds. This method is based on calculating an intermediate sawtooth-shaped signal from the length variation of the recorded PCG signal in the time domain and, using its positive derivative function that is a binary signal in training a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Results obtained in the context of a large database of recorded PCGs with their simultaneously recorded Electrocardiograms (ECGs) from different patients in clinical settings, including normal and abnormal subjects, show on average a segmentation testing performance average of 76% sensitivity and 94% specificity.

Keywords: Heart sounds, PCG segmentation, event detection, Recurrent Neural Networks, PCG curve length.

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Authors: N. Tsvetkova, R. Harizanov A. Ivanova, I. Rainova, N. Yancheva-Petrova, D. Strashimirov, R. Enikova, M. Videnova, E. Kaneva, I. Kaftandjiev, V. Levterova, I. Simeonovski, N. Yanev, G. Hinkov

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The Pneumocystis jirovecii (P. jirovecii) and protozoan of the genera Acanthamoeba, Cryptosporidium, and Toxoplasma gondii are opportunistic pathogens that can cause life-threatening infections in immunocompromised patients. Aim of the study was to evaluate the coinfection rate with opportunistic protozoal agents among Bulgarian patients diagnosed with P. jirovecii pneumonia. 38 pulmonary samples were collected from 38 patients (28 HIV-infected) with P. jirovecii infection. P. jirovecii DNA was detected by real-time PCR targeting the large mitochondrial subunit ribosomal RNA gene. Acanthamoeba was determined by genus-specific conventional PCR assay. Real-time PCR for the detection of a Toxoplasma gondii and Cryptosporidium DNA fragment was used. Pneumocystis DNA was detected in all 38 specimens; 28 (73.7%) were from HIV-infected patients. Three (10,7%) of them were coinfected with T. gondii and 1 (3.6%) with Cryptosporidium. In the group of non-HIV-infected (n = 10), Cryptosporidium DNA was detected in an infant (10%). Acanthamoeba DNA was not found in the tested samples. The current study showed a relatively low rate of coinfections of Cryptosporidium spp./T. gondii and P. jirovecii in the Bulgarian patients studied.

Keywords: Coinfection, opportunistic protozoal agents, Pneumocystis jirovecii, pulmonary infections.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Huda Yasin, Madiha Yasin, C. Ardil

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In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or  absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), binary logistic regression analyses, myocardial ischemia (MI), principle component analysis, unstable angina (U.A.).

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Spexin, expressed in the central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as the negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. Eosinophils are early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. 34 children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and 51 morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. BMI values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p < 0.05) and platelets (p > 0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p > 0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p < 0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases, eosinophils, fetuin A, pediatric morbid obesity, platelets, spexin.

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

Abstract:

This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

Abstract:

Generally the natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1km to the factory, within 1km to 5km and above 5km to the factory. Also questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that fall between less than 1km and 1km to 5km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce health risk problems.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Ewekoro, GIS, Health risk, Satellite imagery.

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Authors: Jahangir Jafari, Nematollah Khorasani, Afshin Danehkar

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Having a very many number of pipelines all over the country, Iran is one of the countries consists of various ecosystems with variable degrees of fragility and robusticity as well as geographical conditions. This study presents a state-of-the-art method to estimate environmental risks of pipelines by recommending rational equations including FES, URAS, SRS, RRS, DRS, LURS and IRS as well as FRS to calculate the risks. This study was carried out by a relative semi-quantitative approach based on land uses and HVAs (High-Value Areas). GIS as a tool was used to create proper maps regarding the environmental risks, land uses and distances. The main logic for using the formulas was the distance-based approaches and ESI as well as intersections. Summarizing the results of the study, a risk geographical map based on the ESIs and final risk score (FRS) was created. The study results showed that the most sensitive and so of high risk area would be an area comprising of mangrove forests located in the pipeline neighborhood. Also, salty lands were the most robust land use units in the case of pipeline failure circumstances. Besides, using a state-of-the-art method, it showed that mapping the risks of pipelines out with the applied method is of more reliability and convenience as well as relative comprehensiveness in comparison to present non-holistic methods for assessing the environmental risks of pipelines. The focus of the present study is “assessment" than that of “management". It is suggested that new policies are to be implemented to reduce the negative effects of the pipeline that has not yet been constructed completely

Keywords: ERM, ESI, ERA, Pipeline, Assalouyeh

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Obesity is a low-grade inflammatory disease and may lead to health problems such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes. It is also associated with important risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. This requires the detailed evaluation of obesity, particularly in children. The aim of this study is to enlighten the potential associations between lipid ratios and obesity indices and to introduce those with discriminating features among children with obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 408 children (aged between six and eighteen years) participated in the scope of the study. Informed consent forms were taken from the participants and their parents. Ethical Committee approval was obtained. Anthropometric measurements such as weight, height as well as waist, hip, head, neck circumferences and body fat mass were taken. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were recorded. Body mass index (BMI), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-II (D2 index), waist-to-hip, head-to-neck ratios were calculated. Total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLChol), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLChol) analyses were performed in blood samples drawn from 110 children with normal body weight, 164 morbid obese (MO) children and 134 children with MetS. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentiles tabulated by World Health Organization were used to classify groups; normal body weight, MO and MetS. 15^th-to-85^th percentiles were used to define normal body weight children. Children, whose values were above the 99th percentile, were described as MO. MetS criteria were defined. Data were evaluated statistically by SPSS Version 20. The degree of statistical significance was accepted as p≤0.05. Mean±standard deviation values of BMI for normal body weight children, MO children and those with MetS were 15.7±1.1, 27.1±3.8 and 29.1±5.3 kg/m², respectively. Corresponding values for the D2 index were calculated as 3.4±0.9, 14.3±4.9 and 16.4±6.7. Both BMI and D2 index were capable of discriminating the groups from one another (p≤0.01). As far as other obesity indices were considered, waist-to hip and head-to-neck ratios did not exhibit any statistically significant difference between MO and MetS groups (p≥0.05). Diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-II was correlated with the triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio in normal body weight and MO (r=0.413, p≤0.01 and r=0.261, (p≤0.05, respectively). Total cholesterol-to-HDL-C and LDL-C-to-HDL-C showed statistically significant differences between normal body weight and MO as well as MO and MetS (p≤0.05). The only group in which these two ratios were significantly correlated with waist-to-hip ratio was MetS group (r=0.332 and r=0.334, p≤0.01, respectively). Lack of correlation between the D2 index and the triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio was another important finding in MetS group. In this study, parameters and ratios, whose associations were defined previously with increased cardiovascular risk or cardiac death have been evaluated along with obesity indices in children with morbid obesity and MetS. Their profiles during childhood have been investigated. Aside from the nature of the correlation between the D2 index and triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio, total cholesterol-to-HDL-C as well as LDL-C-to- HDL-C ratios along with their correlations with waist-to-hip ratio showed that the combination of obesity-related parameters predicts better than one parameter and appears to be helpful for discriminating MO children from MetS group.

Keywords: Children, lipid ratios, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices.

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Authors: Vimala Balakrishnan, Mohammad R. Shakouri, Hooman Hoodeh, Loo, Huck-Soo

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Diabetes is one of the high prevalence diseases worldwide with increased number of complications, with retinopathy as one of the most common one. This paper describes how data mining and case-based reasoning were integrated to predict retinopathy prevalence among diabetes patients in Malaysia. The knowledge base required was built after literature reviews and interviews with medical experts. A total of 140 diabetes patients- data were used to train the prediction system. A voting mechanism selects the best prediction results from the two techniques used. It has been successfully proven that both data mining and case-based reasoning can be used for retinopathy prediction with an improved accuracy of 85%.

Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, Data Mining, Prediction, Retinopathy.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, Dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

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Cerebellar ataxia is a steadily progressive neurodegenerative disease associated with loss of motor control, leaving patients unable to walk, talk, or perform activities of daily living. Direct motor instruction in cerebella ataxia patients has limited effectiveness, presumably because an inappropriate closed-loop cerebellar response to the inevitable observed error confounds motor learning mechanisms. Could the use of EEG based BCI provide advanced biofeedback to improve motor imagery and provide a “backdoor” to improving motor performance in ataxia patients? In order to determine the feasibility of using EEG-based BCI control in this population, we compare the ability to modulate mu-band power (8-12 Hz) by performing a cued motor imagery task in an ataxia patient and healthy control.

Keywords: Cerebellar ataxia, Electroencephalogram, brain-computer interface, motor imagery.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflected the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: Food Risk Assessment, FMEA, Human Factor.

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: Civil engineering, occupational health, productivity, safety climate.

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