Search results for: agro meteorological indices

Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

Abstract:

The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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Authors: Xiantong Li, Jianzhong Li

Abstract:

Graph has become increasingly important in modeling complicated structures and schemaless data such as proteins, chemical compounds, and XML documents. Given a graph query, it is desirable to retrieve graphs quickly from a large database via graph-based indices. Different from the existing methods, our approach, called VFM (Vertex to Frequent Feature Mapping), makes use of vertices and decision features as the basic indexing feature. VFM constructs two mappings between vertices and frequent features to answer graph queries. The VFM approach not only provides an elegant solution to the graph indexing problem, but also demonstrates how database indexing and query processing can benefit from data mining, especially frequent pattern mining. The results show that the proposed method not only avoids the enumeration method of getting subgraphs of query graph, but also effectively reduces the subgraph isomorphism tests between the query graph and graphs in candidate answer set in verification stage.

Keywords: Decision Feature, Frequent Feature, Graph Dataset, Graph Query

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Authors: Haodong Wu, Ping Huang, Junsan Wang

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In China, with the rapid urbanization and industrialization, and highly accelerated economic development have resulted in degradation of water resource. The water quality deterioration usual result from eutrophication in most cases, so how to dispose this type pollution water higher efficiently is an urgent task. Hower, different with traditional technology, constructed wetlands are effective treatment systems that can be very useful because they are simple technology and low operational cost. A pilot-scale treatment including constructed wetlands was constructed at XingYun Lake, Yuxi, China, and operated as primary treatment measure before eutrophic-lake water draining to riverine landscape. Water quality indices were determined during the experiment, the results indicated that treatment removal efficiencies were high for Nitrate nitrogen, Chlorophyll–a and Algae, the final removal efficiency reached to 95.20%, 93.33% and 99.87% respectively, but the removal efficiency of Total phosphorous and Total nitrogen only reach to 68.83% and 50.00% respectively.

Keywords: Constructed wetland, Eutrophic-lake water, Nutrientremoval, Removal efficiency

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Authors: Asmatullah Chaudhry, Anwar M. Mirza

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We present a general comparison of punctual kriging based image restoration for different neighbourhood sizes. The formulation of the technique under consideration is based on punctual kriging and fuzzy concepts for image restoration in spatial domain. Three different neighbourhood windows are considered to estimate the semivariance at different lags for studying its effect in reduction of negative weights resulted in punctual kriging, consequently restoration of degraded images. Our results show that effect of neighbourhood size higher than 5x5 on reduction in negative weights is insignificant. In addition, image quality measures, such as structure similarity indices, peak signal to noise ratios and the new variogram based quality measures; show that 3x3 window size gives better performance as compared with larger window sizes.

Keywords: Image restoration, punctual kriging, semi-variance, structure similarity index, negative weights in punctual kriging.

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Authors: Chee-Ming Chan

Abstract:

In spite of the advent of new materials, clay bricks remain, arguably, the most popular construction materials today. Nevertheless the low cost and versatility of clay bricks cannot always be associated with high environmental and sustainable values, especially in terms of raw material sources and manufacturing processes. At the same time, the worldwide agricultural footprint is fast growing, with vast agricultural land cultivation and active expansion of the agro-based industry. The resulting large quantities of agricultural wastes, unfortunately, are not always well managed or utilised. These wastes can be recycled, such as by retrieving fibres from disposed leaves and fruit bunches, and then incorporated in brick-making. This way the clay bricks are made a 'greener' building material and the discarded natural wastes can be reutilised, avoiding otherwise wasteful landfill and harmful open incineration. This study examined the physical and mechanical properties of clay bricks made by adding two natural fibres to a clay-water mixture, with baked and non-baked conditions. The fibres were sourced from pineapple leaves (PF) and oil palm fruit bunch (OF), and added within the range of 0.25-0.75 %. Cement was added as a binder to the mixture at 5-15 %. Although the two fibres had different effects on the bricks produced, cement appeared to dominate the compressive strength. The non-baked bricks disintegrated when submerged in water, while the baked ones displayed cement-dependent characteristics in water-absorption and density changes. Interestingly, further increase in fibre content did not cause significant density decrease in both the baked and non-baked bricks.

Keywords: natural fibres, clay bricks, strength, water absorption, density.

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Authors: D.O. Omondi, M.K. Walingo, G.M. Mbagaya, L.O.A. Othuon

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This study applied the Theory of Planned Behavior model in predicting dietary behavior among Type 2 diabetics in a Kenyan environment. The study was conducted for three months within the diabetic clinic at Kisii Hospital in Nyanza Province in Kenya and adopted sequential mixed methods design combing both qualitative and quantitative phases. Qualitative data was analyzed using grounded theory analysis method. Structural equation modeling using maximum likelihood was used to analyze quantitative data. The results based on the common fit indices revealed that the theory of planned behavior fitted the data acceptably well among the Type 2 diabetes and within dietary behavior {χ2 = 223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9, n=237; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)}. This implies that the Theory of Planned Behavior holds and forms a framework for promoting dietary practice among Type 2 diabetics.

Keywords: Dietary practice, Kenya, Theory of PlannedBehavior, Type 2 diabetes, Mixed Methods Design.

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Authors: Ghulam Mueen-ud-Din, Salim-ur-Rehman, Faqir M. Anjum, Haq Nawaz, Mian A. Murtaza

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The effect of wheat flour extraction rates on flour composition, farinographic characteristics and the quality of sourdough naans was investigated. The results indicated that by increasing the extraction rate, the amount of protein, fiber, fat and ash increased, whereas moisture content decreased. Farinographic characteristic like water absorption and dough development time increased with an increase in flour extraction rate but the dough stabilities and tolerance indices were reduced with an increase in flour extraction rates. Titratable acidity for both sourdough and sourdough naans also increased along with flour extraction rate. The study showed that overall quality of sourdough naans were affected by both flour extraction rate and starter culture used. Sensory analysis of sourdough naans revealed that desirable extraction rate for sourdough naan was 76%.

Keywords: Extraction rates, Farinographic characteristics, Flour composition, Sourdough naans, Wheat flour.

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Authors: Dai Miyamoto

Abstract:

This paper examines the factors, which determine R&D outsourcing behaviour at Japanese firms, from the viewpoints of transaction cost and strategic management, since the latter half of the 1990s. This study uses empirical analysis, which involves the application of large-sample data. The principal findings of this paper are listed below. Firms that belong to a wider corporate group are more active in executing R&D outsourcing activities. Diversification strategies such as the expansion of product and sales markets have a positive effect on the R&D outsourcing behaviour of firms. Moreover, while quantitative R&D resources have positive influences on R&D outsourcing, qualitative indices have no effect. These facts suggest that R&D outsourcing behaviour of Japanese firms are consistent with the two perspectives of transaction cost and strategic management. Specifically, a conventional corporate group network plays an important role in R&D outsourcing behaviour. Firms that execute R&D outsourcing leverage 'old' networks to construct 'new' networks and use both networks properly.

Keywords: Corporate Group Networks, R&D Outsourcing, Strategic Management Perspective, Transaction Cost Perspective.

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include the cost of infrastructure, personnel, and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion, and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. This research aims to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using Machine Learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons, like overspeeding, etc., in the United States. These factors range from meteorological elements such as weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity, to human-made structures, like road structure components such as Bumps, Roundabouts, No Exit, Turning Loops, Give Away, etc. The probabilities are categorized into ten distinct classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes in all states collected by the US government. The probability of the crash was determined by employing Multinomial Expected Value, and a classification label was assigned accordingly. We applied three classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-depth insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: Road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

For the dearth of reliable cardinal numerical data, the linked phenomena in productivity indices such as operational costs and company turnovers, etc. could not be investigated. This would not give us insight to the root of productivity problems at unique sites. So, ordinal ranking by professionals who were most directly involved with construction sites was applied for Kendall’s concordance. Responses gathered from independent architects, builders/engineers, and quantity surveyors were herein analyzed. They were responses based on factors that affect sites productivity, and these factors were categorized as head office factors, resource management effectiveness factors, motivational factors, and training/skill development factors. It was found that productivity is low and has to be improved in order to facilitate Nigerian efforts in bridging its infrastructure deficit. The significance of this work is underlined with the Kendall’s coefficient of concordance of 0.78, while remedial measures must be emphasized to stimulate better productivity. Further detailed study can be undertaken by using Fuzzy logic analysis on wider Delphi survey.

Keywords: Factors, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, magnitude of agreement, percentage magnitude of dichotomy, ranking variables.

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Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

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The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

Abstract:

The study assessed the levels of some heavy metals in the contaminated soil from a point source using pollution indices to measure the extent of pollution. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point positioned at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Samples were collected after 50 days and analyzed for heavy metal (Zn, Ni, Cu and Cd) using standard methods. The mean concentration of Ni ranged from 5.55-2.65 mg/kg, Zn 3.67-0.85 mg/kg, Cu 1.60-0.93 mg/kg and Cd 1.60-0.15 mg/kg. The richness of metals was in decreasing order: Ni > Zn > Cu > Cd. The metals concentration was found to be maximum at 0.25 m radial distance from the point of leachate application. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) studied revealed that all the metals recovered at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance and at 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and 0.60 m depth from the point of application of leachate fall under unpolluted to moderately polluted range. Ecological risk assessment showed high ecological risk index with values higher than RI > 300. The RI shows that the ecological risk in this study was mostly contributed by Cd ranging from 9-96.

Keywords: Ecological risk, assessment, heavy metals, test soils, landfill leachate.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

Abstract:

Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Constantin Pehoiu

Abstract:

School physical education, through its objectives and contents, efficiently valorizes the pupils- abilities, developing them, especially the coordinative skill component, which is the basis of movement learning, of the development of the daily motility and also of the special, refined motility required by the practice of certain sports. Medium school age offers the nervous and motor substratum needed for the acquisition of complex motor habits, a substratum that is essential for the coordinative skill. Individuals differ as to the level at which this function is performed, the extent to which this function turns an individual into a person that is adapted and adaptable to complex and various situations. Spatio-temporal orientation, together with movement combination and coupling, and with kinesthetic, balance, motor reaction, movement transformation and rhythm differentiation form the coordinative skills. From our viewpoint, these are characteristic features with high levels of manifestation in a complex psychomotor act - valorizing the quality of one-s talent - as well as indices pertaining to one-s psychomotor intelligence and creativity.

Keywords: development, lesson, spatio-temporal orientation, physical education.

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Authors: Muhammad Nizam, Azah Mohamed, Majid Al-Dabbagh, Aini Hussain

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This paper presents dynamic voltage collapse prediction on an actual power system using support vector machines. Dynamic voltage collapse prediction is first determined based on the PTSI calculated from information in dynamic simulation output. Simulations were carried out on a practical 87 bus test system by considering load increase as the contingency. The data collected from the time domain simulation is then used as input to the SVM in which support vector regression is used as a predictor to determine the dynamic voltage collapse indices of the power system. To reduce training time and improve accuracy of the SVM, the Kernel function type and Kernel parameter are considered. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed SVM method, its performance is compared with the multi layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN). Studies show that the SVM gives faster and more accurate results for dynamic voltage collapse prediction compared with the MLPNN.

Keywords: Dynamic voltage collapse, prediction, artificial neural network, support vector machines

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Authors: Sh. Gofurov, O. Ismailova, U. Makhmanov, A. Kokhkharov

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The refractometric method has been used to determine optical properties of concentration features of aqueous solutions of ethanol, tetrahydrofuran and dimethylformamide at the room temperature. Changes in dielectric permittivity of aqueous solutions of ethanol, tetrahydrofuran and dimethylformamide in a wide range of concentrations (0÷1.0 molar fraction) have been studied using molecular dynamics method. The curves depending on the concentration of experimental data on excess refractive indices and excess dielectric permittivity were compared. It has been shown that stable heteromolecular complexes in binary solutions are formed in the concentration range of 0.3÷0.4 mole fractions. The real and complex part of dielectric permittivity was obtained from dipole-dipole autocorrelation functions of molecules. At the concentrations of C = 0.3 / 0.4 m.f. the heteromolecular structures with hydrogen bonds are formed. This is confirmed by the extremum values of excessive dielectric permittivity and excessive refractive index of aqueous solutions.

Keywords: Refractometric method, dielectric constant, molecular dynamics, aqueous solution.

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Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk

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Authors: S. Wechmongkhonkon, N.Poomtong, S. Areerachakul

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Water quality is a subject of ongoing concern. Deterioration of water quality has initiated serious management efforts in many countries. This study endeavors to automatically classify water quality. The water quality classes are evaluated using 6 factor indices. These factors are pH value (pH), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Nitrate Nitrogen (NO3N), Ammonia Nitrogen (NH3N) and Total Coliform (TColiform). The methodology involves applying data mining techniques using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models. The data consisted of 11 sites of canals in Dusit district in Bangkok, Thailand. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage Bangkok Metropolitan Administration during 2007-2011. The results of multilayer perceptron neural network exhibit a high accuracy multilayer perception rate at 96.52% in classifying the water quality of Dusit district canal in Bangkok Subsequently, this encouraging result could be applied with plan and management source of water quality.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, surface water quality

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Authors: N. Janjamraj, A. Oonsivilai

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This paper present the harmonic elimination of hybrid multilevel inverters (HMI) which could be increase the number of output voltage level. Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) is one of the most important requirements concerning performance indices. Because of many numbers output levels of HMI, it had numerous unknown variables of eliminate undesired individual harmonic and THD nonlinear equations set. Optimized harmonic stepped waveform (OHSW) is solving switching angles conventional method, but most complicated for solving as added level. The artificial intelligent techniques are deliberation to solve this problem. This paper presents the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for solving switching angles to get minimum THD and eliminate undesired individual harmonics of 15-levels hybrid multilevel inverters. Consequently it had many variables and could eliminate numerous harmonics. Both advantages including high level of inverter and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used as powerful tools for harmonics elimination.

Keywords: Multilevel Inverters, Particle Swarms Optimization, Harmonic Elimination.

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Authors: Desmond B. Keenan, Paul Grossman

Abstract:

In order to provide accurate heart rate variability indices of sympathetic and parasympathetic activity, the low frequency and high frequency components of an RR heart rate signal must be adequately separated. This is not always possible by just applying spectral analysis, as power from the high and low frequency components often leak into their adjacent bands. Furthermore, without the respiratory spectra it is not obvious that the low frequency component is not another respiratory component, which can appear in the lower band. This paper describes an adaptive filter, which aids the separation of the low frequency sympathetic and high frequency parasympathetic components from an ECG R-R interval signal, enabling the attainment of more accurate heart rate variability measures. The algorithm is applied to simulated signals and heart rate and respiratory signals acquired from an ambulatory monitor incorporating single lead ECG and inductive plethysmography sensors embedded in a garment. The results show an improvement over standard heart rate variability spectral measurements.

Keywords: Heart rate variability, vagal tone, sympathetic, parasympathetic, spectral analysis, adaptive filter.

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Authors: M. Elassaly

Abstract:

Damage status of RC buildings is greatly influenced by the characteristics of the imposed ground motion. Peak Ground Acceleration and frequency contents are considered the main two factors that affect ground motion characteristics; hence, affecting the seismic response of RC structures and consequently their damage state. A detailed investigation on the combined effects of these two factors on damage assessment of RC buildings is carried out. Twenty one earthquake records are analyzed and arranged into three groups, according to their frequency contents. These records are used in an investigation to define the expected damage state that would be attained by RC buildings, if subjected to varying ground motion characteristics. The damage assessment is conducted through examining drift ratios and damage indices of the overall structure and the significant structural components of RC building. Base and story shear of RC building model, are also investigated, for cases when the model is subjected to the chosen twenty one earthquake records. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on a 2-dimensional model of a 12-story RC building.

Keywords: Damage, frequency content, ground motion, PGA, RC building, seismic.

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Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya, L. O. A. Othuon

Abstract:

Understanding patient factors related to physical activity behavior is important in the management of Type 2 Diabetes. This study applied the Theory of Planned Behavior model to understand physical activity behavior among sampled Type 2 diabetics in Kenya. The study was conducted within the diabetic clinic at Kisii Level 5 Hospital and adopted sequential mixed methods design beginning with qualitative phase and ending with quantitative phase. Qualitative data was analyzed using grounded theory analysis method. Structural equation modeling using maximum likelihood was used to analyze quantitative data. The common fit indices revealed that the theory of planned behavior fitted the data acceptably well among the Type 2 diabetes and within physical activity behavior {¤ç2 = 213, df = 84, n=230, p = .061, ¤ç2/df = 2.53; TLI = .97; CFI =.96; RMSEA (90CI) = .073(.029, .08)}. This theory proved to be useful in understanding physical activity behavior among Type 2 diabetics.

Keywords: Physical activity, Theory of Planned Behavior, Type2 diabetes, Kenya.

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: Multiple energy storage system, energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints.

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Authors: Amer A. Boushaala

Abstract:

The heuristic decision rules used for project scheduling will vary depending upon the project-s size, complexity, duration, personnel, and owner requirements. The concept of project complexity has received little detailed attention. The need to differentiate between easy and hard problem instances and the interest in isolating the fundamental factors that determine the computing effort required by these procedures inspired a number of researchers to develop various complexity measures. In this study, the most common measures of project complexity are presented. A new measure of project complexity is developed. The main privilege of the proposed measure is that, it considers size, shape and logic characteristics, time characteristics, resource demands and availability characteristics as well as number of critical activities and critical paths. The degree of sensitivity of the proposed measure for complexity of project networks has been tested and evaluated against the other measures of complexity of the considered fifty project networks under consideration in the current study. The developed measure showed more sensitivity to the changes in the network data and gives accurate quantified results when comparing the complexities of networks.

Keywords: Activity networks, Complexity index, Networkcomplexity measure, Network topology, Project Network.

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Authors: M. F. Nawaz, S. Gul, T. H. Farooq, M. T. Siddiqui, M. Asif, I. Ahmad, N. K. Niazi

Abstract:

In Pakistan, major demands of fuel wood and timber wood are fulfilled by agroforestry. However, the information regarding economic significance of agroforestry and its productivity in Pakistan is still insufficient and unreliable. Survey of field conditions to examine the agroforestry status at local level helps us to know the future trends and to formulate the policies for sustainable wood supply. The objectives of this research were to examine the actual status and potential of agroforestry and to point out the barriers that are faced by farmers in the adoption of agroforestry. Research was carried out in Chiniot district, Pakistan because it is the famous city for furniture industry that is largely dependent on farm trees. A detailed survey of district Chiniot was carried out from 150 randomly selected farmer respondents using multi-objective oriented and pre-tested questionnaire. It was found that linear tree planting method was more adopted (45%) as compared to linear + interplanting (42%) and/or compact planting (12.6%). Chi-square values at P-value <0.5 showed that age (11.35) and education (17.09) were two more important factors in the quick adoption of agroforestry as compared to land holdings (P-value of 0.7). The major reason of agroforestry adoption was to obtain income, fodder and fuelwood. The most dominant species in farmlands was shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) but since last five years, mostly farmers were growing Sufeida (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), kikar (Acacia nilotica) and popular (Populus deltoides) on their fields due to “Shisham die-back” problem. It was found that agro-forestry can be increased by providing good quality planting material to farmers and improving wood markets.

Keywords: Agroforestry, trees, services, agriculture, farmers.

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Authors: Mohamed Ali

Abstract:

The boundary layer flow and heat transfer on a stretched surface moving with prescribed skin friction is studied for permeable surface. The surface temperature is assumed to vary inversely with the vertical direction x for n = -1. The skin friction at the surface scales as (x-1/2) at m = 0. The constants m and n are the indices of the power law velocity and temperature exponent respectively. Similarity solutions are obtained for the boundary layer equations subject to power law temperature and velocity variation. The effect of various governing parameters, such as the buoyancy parameter λ and the suction/injection parameter fw for air (Pr = 0.72) are studied. The choice of n and m ensures that the used similarity solutions are x independent. The results show that, assisting flow (λ > 0) enhancing the heat transfer coefficient along the surface for any constant value of fw. Furthermore, injection increases the heat transfer coefficient but suction reduces it at constant λ.

Keywords: Stretching surface, Boundary layers, Prescribed skin friction, Suction or injection, similarity solutions, buoyancy effects.

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Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

Abstract:

North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean Region, North Sea Caspian Pattern, precipitation, temperature.

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Authors: Hani M. Aburas

Abstract:

“Dengue" is an African word meaning “bone breaking" because it causes severe joint and muscle pain that feels like bones are breaking. It is an infectious disease mainly transmitted by female mosquito, Aedes aegypti, and causes four serotypes of dengue viruses. In recent years, a dramatic increase in the dengue fever confirmed cases around the equator-s belt has been reported. Several conventional indices have been designed so far to monitor the transmitting vector populations known as House Index (HI), Container Index (CI), Breteau Index (BI). However, none of them describes the adult mosquito population size which is important to direct and guide comprehensive control strategy operations since number of infected people has a direct relationship with the vector density. Therefore, it is crucial to know the population size of the transmitting vector in order to design a suitable and effective control program. In this context, a study is carried out to report a new statistical index, ABURAS Index, using Poisson distribution based on the collection of vector population in Jeddah Governorate, Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Poisson distribution, statistical index, prediction, Aedes aegypti.

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Authors: H. Fallah, Z. Naddaf Baghdadabadi

Abstract:

Planning of economic activities development has various dimensions one of which determines adequate capacity of economic activities in provinces regarding the government-s goals. Paralleling planning goals of economic activities development including subjects being focused on the view statement is effective to better realize the statement's goals. Current paper presents a native framework for economic activities development in provincial level. Triple steps within the framework are concordant with the view statement-s goals achievement. At first step of the proposed framework, economic activities are being prioritized in terms of employment indices, and secondly economic activities regarding to the province's relative advantages are being recognized. In the third step, desirable capacity of economic activities is determined with regards to the government's goals and effective constraints in economic activities development. Development of economic activities related to the provinces- relative advantages, contributes on regional balance and on equal development of economic activities. Furthermore, results of the framework enable more confident investment, affect employment development and remove unemployment concern as the main goals of the view statement.

Keywords: Development, economic activity, regional planning, view statement.

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Authors: Ali Faal Ghayoumi, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Manouchehre Ansari, Taha Raeesi

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate empirically the valuerelevance of accounting information to domestic investors in Tehran stock exchange from 1999 to 2006. During the present research impacts of two factors, including positive vs. negative earnings and the firm size are considered as well. The authors used earnings per share and annual change of earnings per share as the income statement indices, and book value of equity per share as the balance sheet index. Return and Price models through regression analysis are deployed in order to test the research hypothesis. Results depicted that accounting information is value-relevance to domestic investors in Tehran Stock Exchange according to both studied models. However, income statement information has more value-relevance than the balance sheet information. Furthermore, positive vs. negative earnings and firm size seems to have significant impact on valuerelevance of accounting information.

Keywords: Value-Relevance of Accounting Information, Iranianstock exchange, Return Model, Price Model

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