Search results for: Counterparty Risk

Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk

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Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale

Abstract:

This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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Authors: M. N. Huda, S. Yamada, N. Sonehara

Abstract:

Probability-based identity disclosure risk measurement may give the same overall risk for different anonymization strategy of the same dataset. Some entities in the anonymous dataset may have higher identification risks than the others. Individuals are more concerned about higher risks than the average and are more interested to know if they have a possibility of being under higher risk. A notation of overall risk in the above measurement method doesn-t indicate whether some of the involved entities have higher identity disclosure risk than the others. In this paper, we have introduced an identity disclosure risk measurement method that not only implies overall risk, but also indicates whether some of the members have higher risk than the others. The proposed method quantifies the overall risk based on the individual risk values, the percentage of the records that have a risk value higher than the average and how larger the higher risk values are compared to the average. We have analyzed the disclosure risks for different disclosure control techniques applied to original microdata and present the results.

Keywords: Anonymization, microdata, disclosure risk, privacy.

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Authors: Chun-guang Pan, Ying-wu Chen

Abstract:

Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.

Keywords: Software project, risk management, CMMI, riskresponse planning.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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Authors: Hooman Hoodat, Hassan Rashidi

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Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.

Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, risk classification, risk tree.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

Abstract:

Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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Authors: Juan P. Zamora, Wilson Adarme, Laura Palacios

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This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.

Keywords: Supply risk, risk monitoring, supply chain risk management, cancer drugs, traceability systems.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Saadia Drissi, Siham Benhadou, Hicham Medromi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: Cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer.

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: Assessment, environment, agile, model, risk.

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

Abstract:

To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: Manufacturing industries, production output, risk, risk management, SMEs.

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Authors: Tru C. Le, France Cheong

Abstract:

Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming. Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results of the study are discussed to provide implications for various industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors, and developers of new risk management strategies.

Keywords: Aquaculture, catfish farming, sources of risk, riskmanagement, risk strategies, risk mitigation.

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Authors: Michael Todinov, Eberechi Weli

Abstract:

The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expressed as integer number), the worst-case running time of the proposed algorithm is O (n x (B+1)), which makes the proposed method a very efficient tool for solving the optimal risk reduction problem in the railway industry. 

Keywords: Optimisation, railway risk reduction, budget constraints, dynamic programming.

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Authors: Kristýna Pokorná, Petr Teplý

Abstract:

This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.

Keywords: cointegration, credit default swap, credit risk, credit spread, sovereign risk

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Authors: Ümit Morsünbül

Abstract:

Attachment theory focuses on the bond that develops between child and caretaker and the consequences that this bond has on the childs future relationships. Adolescents attempt to define their identity by experiencing various risky behaviors. The first aim of the study was whether risk taking behavior differs according to attachment styles. The second was to examine risk taking behavior differences according to gender. The third aim of this study was to examine attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And final was to investigate attachment styles differences according to gender. Data were collected from 218 participants (114 female and 104 male) who are university students. The results of this study showed that attachment styles differentiated by risk taking behavior and males had higher risk taking score than females. It was also found out that there was significant attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And finally, the results showed that attachment styles differentiated according to gender.KeywordsAttachment style, risk taking

Keywords: Attachment style, risk taking

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Authors: J. Grira, Y. Bédard, S. Roche

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to design a collaborative framework that integrates risk analysis activities into the geospatial database design (GDD) process. Risk analysis is rarely undertaken iteratively as part of the present GDD methods in conformance to requirement engineering (RE) guidelines and risk standards. Accordingly, when risk analysis is performed during the GDD, some foreseeable risks may be overlooked and not reach the output specifications especially when user intentions are not systematically collected. This may lead to ill-defined requirements and ultimately in higher risks of geospatial data misuse. The adopted approach consists of 1) reviewing risk analysis process within the scope of RE and GDD, 2) analyzing the challenges of risk analysis within the context of GDD, and 3) presenting the components of a risk-based collaborative framework that improves the collection of the intended/forbidden usages of the data and helps geo-IT experts to discover implicit requirements and risks.

Keywords: Collaborative risk analysis, intention of use, Geospatial database design, Geospatial data misuse.

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Authors: Thamer Al-Rousan, Shahida Sulaiman, Rosalina Abdul Salam

Abstract:

Risk management is an essential fraction of project management, which plays a significant role in project success. Many failures associated with Web projects are the consequences of poor awareness of the risks involved and lack of process models that can serve as a guideline for the development of Web based applications. To circumvent this problem, contemporary process models have been devised for the development of conventional software. This paper introduces the WPRiMA (Web Project Risk Management Assessment) as the tool, which is used to implement RIAP, the risk identification architecture pattern model, which focuses upon the data from the proprietor-s and vendor-s perspectives. The paper also illustrates how WPRiMA tool works and how it can be used to calculate the risk level for a given Web project, to generate recommendations in order to facilitate risk avoidance in a project, and to improve the prospects of early risk management.

Keywords: Architecture pattern model, risk factors, risk identification, web project, web project risk management assessment.

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Authors: Ali Hajiha, Farhad Ghaffari, Nooshin Gholamali Tehrani

Abstract:

This study aims at investigating the empirical relationships between risk preference, internet preference, and internet knowledge which are known as user characteristics, in addition to perceived risk of the customers on the internet purchase intention. In order to test the relationships between the variables of model 174, a questionnaire was collected from the students with previous online experience. For the purpose of data analysis, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation model (SEM) was used. Test results show that the perceived risk affects the internet purchase intention, and increase or decrease of perceived risk influences the purchase intention when the customer does the internet shopping. Other factors such as internet preference, knowledge of the internet, and risk preference affect the internet purchase intention.

Keywords: Perceived risk, Internet preference, Internetknowledge, Risk preference, Internet purchase intention

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the viability of business liquidity models.

Keywords: liquidity, risk management, regulation, global crisis

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: Job safety, small and medium-size companies, SME, work risk, risk management.

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Authors: M. M. Mortula

Abstract:

Bottle water is getting very popular all through the world; especially in the gulf countries as the main source of drinking water. However, concerns over leaching of toxic chemicals are increasing. In this study, a health risk assessment was conducted in accordance with the guidelines indicated by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). It is conducted based on leaching of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) from Polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The toxicity and exposure assessment of diethyl phthalate was conducted to characterize its risk on human health. Risk management is also discussed.

Keywords: Toxicity, diethyl phthalate, PET, risk Assessment.

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Authors: Abdullahi Mohamud Sharif, Mohd. Zaidi Abd. Rozan

Abstract:

Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) is an expert system that assesses, monitors, and gives preliminary treatments automatically based on the project plan. In this paper, a review was taken out for the current project time management risk assessment tools for SME software development projects, analyze risk assessment parameters, conditions, scenarios, and finally propose risk assessment tool (RAT) model to assess, treat, and monitor risks. An implementation prototype system is developed to validate the model.

Keywords: Project Time Management, Risk Assessment Tool(RAT), Small and Medium Enterprises (SME).

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Authors: Esad Kadušić, Petar Bojović, Amela Žgalj

Abstract:

Mobile banking services present a unique growth opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have already made good progress in bringing financial services to the previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile banking services.

Keywords: Consumer Adoption, Mobile Banking, Risk

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Authors: B. Salmasian, A. Rabiee, T. Yousefzadeh

Abstract:

In this research, the risk assessment of radiation hazard for the Research Nuclear Reactor has been studied. In the current study, the MCNPx computational code has been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In this study, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated for ten years after exposure, in each of body organs of different ages and sexes. Also, the risk assessment of cancer has been calculated in each of body organs of different ages and sexes due to exposure after the retirement of the reactor staff. According to obtained results, a conservative whole-body dose rate, during a year, is 0.261 Sv and the probability the cancer risk for women is more than men and for children is more than adults. It has been shown that thyroid cancer was more possible than others.

Keywords: MCNPx code, BEIR equation, equivalent dose, risk analysis.

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