Search results for: weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Ati Abdessatar

Abstract:

In the world, agriculture maintains a social and economic importance in the national economy. Its importance is distinguished by its ripple effects not only downstream but also upstream vis-à-vis the non-agricultural sector. However, the situation is relatively fragile because of weather conditions. In this work, we propose a model to highlight the impacts of climate change (CC) on economic growth in the world where agriculture is considered as a strategic sector. The CC is supposed to directly and indirectly affect economic growth by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. The model is tested for Tunisia. The results validate the hypothesis that the potential economic damage of the CC is important. Indeed, an increase in CO2 concentration (temperatures and disruption of rainfall patterns) will have an impact on global economic growth particularly by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. Analysis from a vector error correction model also highlights the magnitude of climate impact on the performance of the agricultural sector and its repercussions on economic growth

Keywords: Climate Change, Agriculture, Economic Growth, World, VECM, Cointegration.

Procedia PDF Downloads 592

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Saifurahman Fayiz

Abstract:

E-government has become a widespread focus of government efforts in various countries around the world. Many governments around the world have been adopted and introduced e-government systems. This research examines the implementation of the Information& communication technology (ICTS) Model in the Kabul Municipality. The objective of this research is to propose an ICT model in the Kabul Municipality to prevent revenue leakage. The research methodology consists qualitative research method based on a comparative case study. The research findings propose that implementing ICT prevent revenue leakage, increases transparency and paves the way for better services. The key conclusion of this research is that the practice of advanced technology in revenue collection paves the way for transparency and provides services in a decent way. The usage of experiences from other Municipalities, especially Jakarta province and Mitaka Municipality Helps KM to improve revenue and provide better services to the citizens

Keywords: E-government, ICT, municipality, revenue

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Victoria Y. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Sergey V. Khudyakov, Aleksandr A. Gajour, Andrei P. Garnov

Abstract:

This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with a spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the Polar Regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under the limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

Abstract:

Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Mohd Adib Abd Muin, Shuhairimi Abdullah, Azizan Bahari

Abstract:

Problem: The research problem is lacking of model on social entrepreneurship that focus on Islamic perspective. Objective: The objective of this paper is to analyse the existing model on social entrepreneurship and to identify the research gap on Islamic perspective from existing models. Research Methodology: The research method used in this study is literature review and comparative analysis from 6 existing models of social entrepreneurship. Finding: The research finding shows that 6 existing models on social entrepreneurship has been analysed and it shows that the existing models on social entrepreneurship do not emphasize on Islamic perspective.

Keywords: social entrepreneurship, Islamic perspective, research gap, business management

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

Abstract:

Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Muneer Abbad

Abstract:

This research explains the e-learning usage in a university in Jordan. Unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model has been used as a base model to explain the usage. UTAUT is a model of individual acceptance that is compiled mainly from different models of technology acceptance. This research is the initial part from full explanations of the users' acceptance model that use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to explain the users' acceptance of the e-learning systems based on UTAUT model. In this part data has been collected and prepared for further analysis. The main factors of UTAUT model has been tested as different factors using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The second phase will be confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and SEM to explain the users' acceptance of e-learning systems.

Keywords: e-learning, moodle, adoption, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Slim Amami

Abstract:

A model is developed to prevent the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a farmer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is mainly based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By a simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is deduced from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. Optimal premium is then deduced, and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect their harvest. The application to wheat production in the French Oise department illustrates the reliability of the present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost every agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, database, meteorological factors, production model, optimal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Kefaifi Aissa, Sahraoui Tahar, Kheloufi Abdelkrim, Anas Sabiha, Hannane Farouk

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The aim of this study is to show how the Design of Experiments Method (DOE) can be put into use as a practical approach for silica sand etching behavior modeling during its primary step of leaching. In the present work, we have studied etching effect on particle size during a primary step of leaching process on Algerian silica sand with florid acid (HF) at 20% and 30 % during 4 and 8 hours. Therefore, a new purity of the sand is noted depending on the time of leaching. This study was expanded by a numerical approach using a method of experiment design, which shows the influence of each parameter and the interaction between them in the process and approved the obtained experimental results. This model is a predictive approach using hide software. Based on the measured parameters experimentally in the interior of the model, the use of DOE method can make it possible to predict the outside parameters of the model in question and can give us the optimize response without making the experimental measurement.

Keywords: acid leaching, design of experiments method(DOE), purity silica, silica etching

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Luisa Kynast

Abstract:

It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Ana Gabriela Diaz, Luis Fermín Córdova, Jr., Roberto Lamazares

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The island of Cuba, the largest of the Greater Antilles, is located in the tropical North Atlantic. It is annually affected by numerous weather events, which have caused severe damage to our coastal areas. In the same way that many other coastlines around the world, the beautiful beaches of the Hicacos Peninsula also suffer from erosion. This leads to a structural regression of the coastline. If measures are not taken, the hotels will be exposed to the advance of the sea, and it will be a serious problem for the economy. With the aim of studying the intensity of this type of activity, specialists of group of coastal and marine engineering from CIH, in the framework of the research conducted within the project MEGACOSTAS 2, provide their research to simulate extreme events and assess their impact in coastal areas, mainly regarding the definition of flood volumes and morphodynamic changes in sandy beaches. The main objective of this work is the evaluation of the process of Varadero beach erosion (the coastal sector has an important impact in the country's economy) on the Hicacos Peninsula for different paths of hurricanes. The mathematical model XBeach, which was integrated into the Coastal engineering system introduced by the project of MEGACOSTA 2 to determine the area and the more critical profiles for the path of hurricanes under study, was applied. The results of this project have shown that Center area is the greatest dynamic area in the simulation of the three paths of hurricanes under study, showing high erosion volumes and the greatest average length of regression of the coastline, from 15- 22 m.

Keywords: beach, erosion, mathematical model, coastal areas

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H.Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

Abstract:

The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Aleksandr A. Gajour, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Vladimir I. Veselov

Abstract:

This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with the spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the polar regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Sujit K. Basak

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of literature review software on researchers. The aim of this study was achieved by analyzing models in terms of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and acceptance level. Collected data was analyzed using WarpPLS 4.0 software. This study used two theoretical frameworks namely Technology Acceptance Model and the Training Needs Assessment Model. The study was experimental and was conducted at a public university in South Africa. The results of the study showed that acceptance level has a high impact on research workload and productivity followed by perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use.

Keywords: technology acceptance model, training needs assessment model, literature review software, research productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Flevy Lasrado

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the service quality dimensions and model them to propose quality improvements using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). Methodology: This paper used an interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The data was collected from the expert opinions that included a questionnaire. The detailed method of using ISM is discussed in the paper. Findings: The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions. Practical implications or Original Value: An ISM based model has been developed for healthcare facility for improving customer satisfaction and increasing market share. Although there is lot of research on SERVQUAL model adapted to healthcare sector, no study has been done to understand the interactions among these dimensions. So the major contribution of this research work is the development of contextual relationships among identified variables through a systematic framework. The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions.

Keywords: SERQUAL, healthcare, quality, service quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Shoaib Yousaf

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to the empirical investigation of the bullwhip effect under sensitivity analysis in the two-tier supply chain. The simulation modeling technique has been applied in this research as a research methodology to see the sensitivity analysis of the bullwhip effect in the rice industry of Pakistan. The research comprises two case studies that have been chosen as a sample. The results of this research have confirmed that reduction in production delay reduces the bullwhip effect, which conforms to the time compressing paradigm and the significance of the reduction in production delay to lessen demand amplification. The result of this research also indicates that by increasing the value of time to adjust inventory decreases the bullwhip effect. Furthermore, by decreasing the value of alpha increases the damping effect of the exponential smoother, it is not surprising that it also reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, by reducing the value of time to work in progress also reduces the bullwhip effect. This research will help practitioners and operation managers to reduces the major costs of their products in three ways. They can reduce their i) inventory levels, ii) better utilize their capacity and iii) improve their forecasting techniques. However, this study is based on two tier supply chain, while in reality the supply chain has got many tiers. Hence, future work will be extended across more than two-tier supply chains.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, rice industry, supply chain dynamics, simulation, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin

Abstract:

The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.

Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: A. Lashkari, H. Khalafi, H. Khazeminejad, S. Khakshourniya

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In this paper, a numerical model is presented. The model is used to analyze a steady state thermo-hydraulic and reactivity insertion transient in TRR reference cores respectively. The model predictions are compared with the experiments and PARET code results. The model uses the piecewise constant and lumped parameter methods for the coupled point kinetics and thermal-hydraulics modules respectively. The advantages of the piecewise constant method are simplicity, efficiency and accuracy. A main criterion on the applicability range of this model is that the exit coolant temperature remains below the saturation temperature, i.e. no bulk boiling occurs in the core. The calculation values of power and coolant temperature, in steady state and positive reactivity insertion scenario, are in good agreement with the experiment values. However, the model is a useful tool for the transient analysis of most research reactor encountered in practice. The main objective of this work is using simple calculation methods and benchmarking them with experimental data. This model can be used for training proposes.

Keywords: thermal-hydraulic, research reactor, reactivity insertion, numerical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Ashish Ashish

Abstract:

In the last few decades, the discrete chaos of difference equations has gained a massive attention of academicians and scholars due to its tremendous applications in each and every branch of science, such as cryptography, traffic control models, secure communications, weather forecasting, and engineering. In this article, a generalized logistic discrete map is established and discrete chaos is reported through period doubling bifurcation, period three orbit and Lyapunov exponent. It is interesting to see that the generalized logistic map exhibits superior chaos due to the presence of an extra degree of freedom of an ordered parameter. The period doubling bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent are demonstrated for some particular values of parameter and the discrete chaos is determined in the sense of Devaney's definition of chaos theoretically as well as numerically. Moreover, the study discusses an extended chaos based image encryption and decryption scheme in cryptography using this novel system. Surprisingly, a larger key space for coding and more sensitive dependence on initial conditions are examined for encryption and decryption of text messages, images and videos which secure the system strongly from external cyber attacks, coding attacks, statistic attacks and differential attacks.

Keywords: chaos, period-doubling, logistic map, Lyapunov exponent, image encryption

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Rabaa Tlili Yaakoubi, Hind Nakouri, Olivier Blanpain

Abstract:

The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of the CARDIO project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 40 to 100%. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 60% of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 80 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: RTC, paradigm, optimization, automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Ammar S. M. Moohialdin, Bambang T. Suhariadi, Mohsin Siddiqui

Abstract:

This paper addresses the application of physiological status monitoring (PSM) for assessing the impact of harsh weather conditions on sports activities in universities in Saudi Arabia. Real sports measurement was conducted during sports activities such that the physiological status (HR and BR) of five students were continuously monitored by using Zephyr BioHarness^TM 3.0 sensors in order to identify the physiological bonds and zones. These bonds and zones were employed as indicators of the associated physiological risks of the performed sports activities. Furthermore, a short yes/no questionnaire was applied to collect information on participants’ health conditions and opinions of the applied PSM sensors. The results show the absence of a warning system as a protective aid for the hazardous levels of extremely hot and humid weather conditions that may cause dangerous and fatal circumstances. The applied formulas for estimating maximum HR provides accurate estimations for Maximum Heart Rate (HR_max). The physiological results reveal that the performed activities by the participants are considered the highest category (90–100%) in terms of activity intensity. This category is associated with higher HR, BR and physiological risks including losing the ability to control human body behaviors. Therefore, there is a need for immediate intervention actions to reduce the intensity of the performed activities to safer zones. The outcomes of this study assist the safety improvement of sports activities inside universities and athletes performing their sports activities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to represent a special case of the application of PSM technology for assessing sports activities in universities considering the impacts of harsh weather conditions on students’ health and safety.

Keywords: physiological status monitoring (PSM), heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR), Arabian Gulf

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Mamta Rana, K. K. Singh, Nisha Kumari

Abstract:

The simulation models with its soil-weather-plant atmosphere interacting system are important tools for assessing the crops in changing climate conditions. The CERES-Wheat & Rice vs. 4.6 DSSAT was calibrated and evaluated for one of the major producers of wheat and rice state- Haryana, India. The simulation runs were made under irrigated conditions and three fertilizer applications dose of N-P-K to estimate crop yield and other growth parameters along with the phenological development of the crop. The genetic coefficients derived by iteratively manipulating the relevant coefficients that characterize the phenological process of wheat and rice crop to the best fit match between the simulated and observed anthesis, physological maturity and final grain yield. The model validated by plotting the simulated and remote sensing derived LAI. LAI product from remote sensing provides the edge of spatial, timely and accurate assessment of crop. For validating the yield and yield components, the error percentage between the observed and simulated data was calculated. The analysis shows that the model can be used to simulate crop yield and yield components for wheat and rice cultivar under different management practices. During the validation, the error percentage was less than 10%, indicating the utility of the calibrated model for climate risk assessment in the selected region.

Keywords: simulation model, CERES-wheat and rice model, crop yield, genetic coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Eti Mizrahi, Gizem İntepe

Abstract:

The geographical location of Turkey that stretches from Asia to Europe and Russia to Africa makes it an important logistics hub in the region. Although logistics is a developing sector in Turkey, the stock market representation is still low with only two companies listed in Turkey’s stock exchange since 2010. In this paper, we use the daily values of these two listed stocks as a benchmark for the logistics sector. After modeling logistics stock prices, an empirical examination is conducted between the existing logistics indices and these stock prices. The paper investigates whether the measures of logistics stocks are correlated with newly available logistics indices. It also shows the reflection of the economic activity in the logistics sector on the stock exchange market. The results presented in this paper are the first analysis of the behavior of logistics indices and logistics stock prices for Turkey.

Keywords: forecasting, logistic stock exchange, modeling, Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 512

Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

Abstract:

The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

Abstract:

There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Zahara Abdulhussan Al-Awadai

Abstract:

In recent years, serious games have started to gain an increasing interest as a tool to support learning across different educational and training fields. It began to serve as a powerful educational tool for improving learning outcomes. In this research, we discuss the potential of virtual experiences and games research outside of the games industry and explore the multifaceted impact of serious games and related technologies on various aspects of our lives. We highlight the usage of serious games as a tool to improve education and other applications with a purpose beyond the entertainment industry. One of the main contributions of this research is proposing a model that facilitates the design and development of serious games in a flexible and easy-to-use way. This is achieved by exploring different requirements to develop a model that describes a serious game structure with a focus on both aspects of serious games (educational and entertainment aspects).

Keywords: game development, requirements, serious games, serious game model

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

Abstract:

New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Manea Viorel, Puscoci Sorin, Stoichescu Dan Alexandru

Abstract:

Free Space Optics (FSO) is an optical telecommunication system that uses laser beam to transmit data at high bit rates via terrestrial atmosphere. This article describes a method to obtain higher bit rates, under unfavorable weather conditions using multiple optical beams, which carry information with low optical power. Optical link quality assessment is given by the attenuation on different weather conditions. The goal of this paper is to compare two transmission techniques: mono and multi beam, both affected by atmospheric attenuation, using OOK and L-PPM modulation. Link availability is evaluated using eye-diagram that provides information about the overall bit error rate of the system.

Keywords: free space optics, wireless optic, laser communication, spatial diversity

Procedia PDF Downloads 486