Search results for: uncertainty

Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Moujib Bahri, Rahim Kallel, Ouafa Sakka

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Corruption is a phenomenon that increases uncertainty and risk of SMEs as it undermines the quality of the business environment and the easy access to public services. Our research builds on existing research on corruption's effects on economic growth at the firm level. Several papers have analyzed the effect of firms’ payments of bribes on their performance; however, only limited research has investigated the link between corruption, innovation, and exports. Drawing on principal-agent theory, we explore how corruption weakens the institutional context and makes the business environment unsound and not conducive to innovation and exports. This study employs data from The Enterprise Surveys conducted in Tunisia between March 2013 and July 2014 by the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). The main objective of this survey was to gain a better understanding of Tunisian firms’ perception of the environment in which they operate. Since 2011, the country's political situation has become fragile and unstable, and public services are perceived as inefficient and corrupt. We test our hypotheses on a sample of 537 Tunisian manufacturing SMEs using structural equation modeling and path analysis. We find that political instability leads to higher level of corruption, and that excessive business licensing regulations create a fertile ground for bribery. Our findings do not support the greasing hypothesis suggesting that corruption can reduce the negative effect of bureaucratic delays and the hard access of companies to public services related to innovation and exports. Instead, our results support the sanding hypothesis according to which corruption hinders innovation activities and exports. Furthermore, corruption is found to, negatively and significantly, impact firms’ ownership of quality certificates. Our results suggest that, in an environment with a high level of corruption, governments and policymakers interested in assisting SMEs with their innovation and export activities should have a better control on corruption to allow them developing those activities without being forced to bribe government officers.

Keywords: corruption, innovation, exports, SMEs

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Authors: Matthew F. Gibson, Narasimha D. Rao, Raphael B. Slade, Joana Portugal Pereira, Joeri Rogelj

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Globally, India’s population is among the most severely impacted by nutrient deficiency, yet millions of tonnes of food are lost before reaching consumers. Across food groups, grains represent the largest share of daily calories and overall losses by mass in India. If current losses remain unresolved and follow projected population rates, we estimate, by 2030, losses from grains for human consumption could increase by 1.3-1.8 million tonnes (Mt) per year against current levels of ~10 Mt per year. This study quantifies energy input to minimise storage losses across India, responsible for a quarter of grain supply chain losses. In doing so, we identify and explore a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) triplet between SDG₂, SDG₇, and SDG₁₂ and provide insight for development of joined up agriculture and health policy in the country. Analyzing rice, wheat, maize, bajra, and sorghum, we quantify one route to reduce losses in supply chains, by modelling the energy input to maintain favorable climatic conditions in modern silo storage. We quantify key nutrients (calories, protein, zinc, iron, vitamin A) contained within these losses and calculate roughly how much deficiency in these dietary components could be reduced if grain losses were eliminated. Our modelling indicates, with appropriate uncertainty, maize has the highest energy input intensity for storage, at 110 kWh per tonne of grain (kWh/t), and wheat the lowest (72 kWh/t). This energy trade-off represents 8%-16% of the energy input required in grain production. We estimate if grain losses across the supply chain were saved and targeted to India’s nutritionally deficient population, average protein deficiency could reduce by 46%, calorie by 27%, zinc by 26%, and iron by 11%. This study offers insight for development of Indian agriculture, food, and health policy by first quantifying and then presenting benefits and trade-offs of tackling food grain losses.

Keywords: energy, food loss, grain storage, hunger, India, sustainable development goal, SDG

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Authors: Andrey Makarov

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This article will focus on the development of antitrust policy in transition economies in the context of preventing explicit and tacit collusion. Experience of BRICS, CIS (Ukraine, Kazakhstan) and CEE countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia) in the creation of antitrust institutions was analyzed, including both legislation and enforcement practice. Most of these countries in the early 90th were forced to develop completely new legislation in the field of protection of competition and it is important to compare different ways of building antitrust institutions and policy results. The article proposes a special approach to evaluation of preventing collusion mechanisms. This approach takes into account such enforcement problems as: classification problems (tacit vs explicit collusion, vertical vs horizontal agreements), flexibility of prohibitions (the balance between “per se” vs “rule of reason” approaches de jure and in practice), design of sanctions, private enforcement challenge, leniency program mechanisms, the role of antitrust authorities etc. The analysis is conducted using both official data, published by competition authorities, and expert assessments. The paper will show how the integration process within the EU predetermined some aspects of the development of antitrust policy in CEE countries, including the trend of the use of "rule of reason" approach. Simultaneously was analyzed the experience of CEE countries in special mechanisms of government intervention. CIS countries in the development of antitrust policy followed more or less original ways, without such a great impact from the European Union, more attention will be given to Russian experience in this field, including the analysis of judicial decisions in antitrust cases. Main problems and challenges for transition economies in this field will be shown, including: Legal uncertainty problem; Problem of rigidity of prohibitions; Enforcement priorities of the regulator; Interaction of administrative and criminal law, limited effectiveness of criminal sanctions in the antitrust field; The effectiveness of leniency program design; Private enforcement challenge.

Keywords: collusion, antitrust policy, leniency program, transition economies, Russia, CEE

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: H. Jung, N. Kim, B. Kang, J. Choe

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History matching is a crucial procedure for predicting reservoir performances and making future decisions. However, it is difficult due to uncertainties of initial reservoir models. Therefore, it is important to have reliable initial models for successful history matching of highly heterogeneous reservoirs such as channel reservoirs. In this paper, we proposed a novel scheme for regenerating geological models using support vector machine (SVM) and principal component analysis (PCA). First, we perform PCA for figuring out main geological characteristics of models. Through the procedure, permeability values of each model are transformed to new parameters by principal components, which have eigenvalues of large magnitude. Secondly, the parameters are projected into two-dimensional plane by multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) based on Euclidean distances. Finally, we train an SVM classifier using 20% models which show the most similar or dissimilar well oil production rates (WOPR) with the true values (10% for each). Then, the other 80% models are classified by trained SVM. We select models on side of low WOPR errors. One hundred channel reservoir models are initially generated by single normal equation simulation. By repeating the classification process, we can select models which have similar geological trend with the true reservoir model. The average field of the selected models is utilized as a probability map for regeneration. Newly generated models can preserve correct channel features and exclude wrong geological properties maintaining suitable uncertainty ranges. History matching with the initial models cannot provide trustworthy results. It fails to find out correct geological features of the true model. However, history matching with the regenerated ensemble offers reliable characterization results by figuring out proper channel trend. Furthermore, it gives dependable prediction of future performances with reduced uncertainties. We propose a novel classification scheme which integrates PCA, MDS, and SVM for regenerating reservoir models. The scheme can easily sort out reliable models which have similar channel trend with the reference in lowered dimension space.

Keywords: history matching, principal component analysis, reservoir modelling, support vector machine

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Authors: Alexis Winfield, Carly Sugar, Barbara Fenesi

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The COVID-19 pandemic uprooted regular routines forcing many children to learn from home, requiring many adults to work from home, and cutting families off from support outside the home. Public health restrictions associated with the pandemic caused widespread psychological distress, including depression and anxiety, increased fear, panic, and stress. These trends are particularly concerning for families raising neuroatypical children, such as those with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), as these children are already more likely than their typically developing peers to experience comorbid mental health issues and to experience greater distress when required to stay indoors. Families with children who have ADHD are also at greater risk for experiencing heightened familial stress due to the challenges associated with managing ADHD behavioural symptoms, greater parental discord and divorce, and greater financial difficulties compared to other families. The current study engaged families comprised of at least one child diagnosed with ADHD to elucidate 1) the unique ways that the COVID-19 pandemic affected their mental health and 2) the specific barriers these families faced to maintaining optimal mental wellbeing. A total of 33 participants (15 parent-child dyads) engaged in virtual interviews. Content analysis revealed that the most frequently identified mental health effects for families were increased child anxiety and disconnectedness, as well as deteriorating parental mental health. The most frequently identified barriers to maintaining optimal mental well-being were lack of routine, lack of social interaction and social support, and uncertainty and fear. Findings underscore areas of need during times of large-scale social isolation, bring voice to the families of children with ADHD, and contribute to our understanding of the pandemic’s impact on the wellbeing of vulnerable families. This work contributes to a growing body of research aimed at creating safeguards to support mental wellbeing for vulnerable families during times of crisis.

Keywords: attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, COVID-19, mental health, vulnerable families

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Mkpoikanke Sunday Otu

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Introduction: Career anxiety is a common issue among university students, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This anxiety can significantly impact students' academic performance, overall well-being, and future career prospects. Therefore, it is crucial to explore effective interventions that can alleviate career anxiety among university students. The primary aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a psychosocial intervention in reducing career anxiety among Nigerian university students. The study employed a group randomized trial research design to further analyze the impact on career anxiety. Methodology: A total of 306 university students from various universities in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, were recruited for this study. The participants were purposively selected to ensure diversity and represent a range of academic disciplines. A group randomized trial research design was employed, with participants randomly assigned to either the treatment group or the control group. The treatment group received a comprehensive psychosocial intervention, while the control group served as a comparison group. The Career Anxiety Questionnaire (CAQ) was used to assess career anxiety levels among the participants. The CAQ is a validated and reliable tool that assesses various aspects of career-related anxiety, including uncertainty, fear, and self-doubt. It was administered to the participants at baseline (before the intervention), immediately after the intervention, and at follow-up (after the intervention). Results: Data analysis was conducted using statistical techniques, including analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results demonstrated that the treatment group showed a significantly lower mean score of career anxiety compared to the control group (p-value<0.05). This finding suggests that the psychosocial intervention was effective in reducing the career anxiety levels of the participants at post-test and follow-up. Conclusion: The findings of this study provide compelling evidence that psychosocial interventions have a significant impact on the reduction of career anxiety among Nigerian university students. The treatment group demonstrated a significant reduction in career anxiety scores, indicating the effectiveness of this intervention. Additionally, this study highlights the importance of addressing the career anxiety challenges faced by university students. By implementing targeted interventions, educational institutions can play a vital role in supporting the overall well-being and success of their students, both academically and professionally.

Keywords: psychosocial intervention, career anxiety, psychoeducation, university students

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Authors: Lundqvist M., Alwin J., Levin L-A.

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Background: Assistance dogs are dogs trained to assist persons with functional impairment or chronic diseases. The assistance dog concept includes different types: guide dogs, hearing dogs, and service dogs. The service dog can further be divided into subgroups of physical services dogs, diabetes alert dogs, and seizure alert dogs. To examine the long-term effects of health care interventions, both in terms of resource use and health outcomes, cost-effectiveness analyses can be conducted. This analysis can provide important input to decision-makers when setting priorities. Little is known when it comes to the cost-effectiveness of assistance dogs. The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of certified service or hearing dogs in comparison to regular companion dogs. Methods: The main data source for the analysis was the “service and hearing dog project”. It was a longitudinal interventional study with a pre-post design that incorporated fifty-five owners and their dogs. Data on all relevant costs affected by the use of a service dog such as; municipal services, health care costs, costs of sick leave, and costs of informal care were collected. Health-related quality of life was measured with the standardized instrument EQ-5D-3L. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per gained quality-adjusted life year was the primary outcome. The analysis employed a societal perspective. Results: The result of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that compared to a regular companion dog, a certified dog is cost-effective with both lower total costs [-32,000 USD] and more quality-adjusted life-years [0.17]. Also, we will present subgroup results analyzing the cost-effectiveness of physicals service dogs and diabetes alert dogs. Conclusions: The study shows that a certified dog is cost-effective in comparison with a regular companion dog for individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases. Analyses of uncertainty imply that further studies are needed.

Keywords: service dogs, hearing dogs, health economics, Markov model, quality-adjusted, life years

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Authors: Bindhiya Thomas, Rehana Hafeez

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Background: The Surgical Ambulatory Unit (SAU) also known as the Same Day Emergency Care (SDEC) is an established part of many hospitals providing same day emergency care service to surgical patients who would have otherwise required admission through the A&E. Prior to Covid, the SAU was functioning as a 12-hour service, but during the Covid crisis this service was transformed to a 24 hour functioning Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit (SAAU). We studied the effects that this change brought about in-patient care in our hospital. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess the impact of a 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit on patient care during the time of Covid, in particular its role in freeing A&E capacity and delivering effective patient care. Methods: We collected two sets of data retrospectively. The first set was collected over a 6-week period when the SAU was functioning at the Princess Royal University Hospital. On March 23rd, 2020, the SAU was transformed into a 24-hour SAAU. Following this transformation, a second set of patient data was collected over a period of 6 weeks. A comparison was made between data collected from when the hospital had a 12-hour Surgical Ambulatory unit and later when it was transformed into a 24-hour facility. Its effects on the change in the number of patients breaching the four hour waiting period and the number of emergency surgical admissions. Results: The 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment unit brought significant reductions in the number of patients breaching the waiting period of 4 hours in A&E from 44% during the period of the 12-hour Surgical Ambulatory care facility to 0% from when the 24-hour Surgical Ambulatory Assessment Unit was established. A 28% reduction was also seen in the number of surgical patients' admissions from A&E. Conclusions: The 24-hour SAAU was found to have a profound positive impact on emergency care of surgical patients. Especially during the Covid crisis, it played a crucial role in providing not only effective and accessible patient care but also in reducing the A&E workload and admissions. It thus proved to be a strategic tool that helped to deal with the immense workload in emergency care during the Covid crisis and helped free much needed headspace at a time of uncertainty for the A&E to better configure their services. If sustained, the 24-hour SAAU could be relied on to augment the NHS emergency services in the future, especially in the event of another crisis.

Keywords: Princess Royal University Hospital, surgical ambulatory assessment unit, surgical ambulatory unit, same day emergency care

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Authors: Juan C. Gutierrez-Estrada, Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, Ignacio De La Rosa, Antonio Peregrin, Fernando Gomez-Bravo, Samuel Lopez-Dominguez, Alejandro Garrocho-Cruz, Jairo Castro-Gutierrez

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The semi-intensive aquaculture in traditional earth ponds is the main rearing system in Southern Spain. These fish rearing systems are approximately two thirds of aquatic production in this area which has made a significant contribution to the regional economy in recent years. In this type of rearing system, a crucial aspect is the correct quantification and control of the fish abundance in the ponds because the fish farmer knows how many fishes he puts in the ponds but doesn’t know how many fishes will harvest at the end of the rear period. This is a consequence of the mortality induced by different causes as pathogen agents as parasites, viruses and bacteria and other factors as predation of fish-eating birds and poaching. Track the fish abundance in these installations is very difficult because usually the ponds take up a large area of land and the management of the water flow is not automatized. Therefore, there is a very high degree of uncertainty on the abundance fishes which strongly hinders the management and planning of the sales. A novel and non-invasive procedure to count fishes in the ponds is by the means of imaging sonars, particularly fixed systems and/or linked to aquatic vehicles as Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs). In this work, a method based on census stations procedures is proposed to evaluate the fish abundance estimation accuracy using images obtained of multibeam sonars. The results indicate that it is possible to obtain a realistic approach about the number of fishes, sizes and therefore the biomass contained in the ponds. This research is included in the framework of the KTTSeaDrones Project (‘Conocimiento y transferencia de tecnología sobre vehículos aéreos y acuáticos para el desarrollo transfronterizo de ciencias marinas y pesqueras 0622-KTTSEADRONES-5-E’) financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg V-A Spain-Portugal Programme (POCTEP) 2014-2020.

Keywords: census station procedure, fish biomass, semi-intensive aquaculture, multibeam sonars

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Authors: Alice Huffman, Joseph Hartland, Sam Gibbs

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Dermatology is often a neglected specialty in low-resource settings, despite the high morbidity associated with skin disease. This becomes even more significant when associated with HIV infection, as dermatological conditions are more common and aggressive in HIV positive patients. African countries have the highest HIV infection rates and skin conditions are frequently misdiagnosed and mismanaged, because of a lack of dermatological training and educational material. The frequent lack of diagnostic tests in the African setting renders basic clinical skills all the more vital. This project aimed to improve diagnosis and treatment of skin disease in the HIV population in a district hospital in Malawi. A basic dermatological clinical tool was developed and produced in collaboration with local staff and based on available literature and data collected from clinics. The aim was to improve diagnostic accuracy and provide guidance for the treatment of skin disease in HIV positive patients. A literature search within Embase, Medline and Google scholar was performed and supplemented through data obtained from attending 5 Antiretroviral clinics. From the literature, conditions were selected for inclusion in the resource if they were described as specific, more prevalent, or extensive in the HIV population or have more adverse outcomes if they develop in HIV patients. Resource-appropriate treatment options were decided using Malawian Ministry of Health guidelines and textbooks specific to African dermatology. After the collection of data and discussion with local clinical and pharmacy staff a list of 15 skin conditions was included and a booklet created using the simple layout of a picture, a diagnostic description of the disease and treatment options. Clinical photographs were collected from local clinics (with full consent of the patient) or from the book ‘Common Skin Diseases in Africa’ (permission granted if fully acknowledged and used in a not-for-profit capacity). This tool was evaluated by the local staff, alongside an educational teaching session on skin disease. This project aimed to reduce uncertainty in diagnosis and provide guidance for appropriate treatment in HIV patients by gathering information into one practical and manageable resource. To further this project, we hope to review the effectiveness of the tool in practice.

Keywords: dermatology, HIV, Malawi, skin disease

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Authors: Sadaf Rafiq, Muhammad Waqas, Shakeel Ahmad Khan, Nisar Ahmad

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Everyday life information seeking (ELIS) is considered as the mastery of life. It plays an important role in daily problem solving activities. Female students living in university hostels need variety of information to fulfil their everyday information needs. To find accurate and timely information is really challenging for females students who move from rural areas for educational purposes. These challenges involve culture differences, stress, financial issues, homesickness, diet needs and change in sleeping and eating habits. These complications create numerous problems for female students to adjust themselves in new and unfamiliar environment. Although the Internet has increased the ease of seeking everyday life information to survive successfully but there is still uncertainty to fully rely on the quality of information available on the web. Pakistan is an underdeveloped country where limited budget is allocated for educational institutions to enable them in developing well established hostels for their students. Female students who pursue for higher education has to stay at hostels for years to obtain education goals. It really becomes very difficult for them to spend life in hostels if they are not properly facilitated with relevant information sources to acquire everyday life information. The proposed study attempts to investigate the everyday life information seeking behavior of female students who are living in university and private hostels of Lahore. It investigates the various sources of information used by female students. It also identifies the problems faced by the female students in accessing everyday life information. The results of this study will be helpful for university management to understand their information need and provide required information sources which are essential for them to spend a comfortable, successful and peaceful life in hostels and achieve their educational goals. To achieve the objectives of the study, we will use quantitative research approach by using questionnaire as a data collection tool. The population of this study will be the university students living in public and private hostels of Lahore, Pakistan. This study will increase the understanding of everyday life information seeking behavior of female students living in hostels. Results of the study will be helpful for hostel administrations to better understand the students’ everyday life information needs and provide high quality of information services and living environment.

Keywords: everyday, information seeking, hostel, female

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Authors: Muhammad Akmal Putera, Noriyuki Yasufuku, Adel Alowaisy, Ahmad Rifai

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Indonesia’s government has planned a project for a high-speed railway connecting the capital cities, Jakarta and Surabaya, about 700 km. Based on that location, it has been planning construction above the lowland soil region. The lowland soil region comprises cohesive soil with high water content and high compressibility index, which in fact, led to a settlement problem. Among the variety of railway track structures, the adoption of the ballastless track was used effectively to reduce the settlement; it provided a lightweight structure and minimized workspace. Contradictorily, deploying this thin layer structure above the lowland area was compensated with several problems, such as lack of bearing capacity and deflection behavior during traffic loading. It is necessary to combine with ground improvement to assure a settlement behavior on the clayey soil. Reflecting on the assurance of strength increment and working period, those were convinced by adopting methods such as cement-treated soil as the substructure of railway track. Particularly, evaluating mechanical properties in the field has been well known by using the plate load test and cone penetration test. However, observing an increment of mechanical properties has uncertainty, especially for evaluating cement-treated soil on the substructure. The current quality control of cement-treated soils was established by laboratory tests. Moreover, using small strain devices measurement in the laboratory can predict more reliable results that are identical to field measurement tests. Aims of this research are to show an intercorrelation of confining pressure with the initial condition of the Young modulus (E_o), Poisson ratio (υ_o) and Shear modulus (G_o) within small strain ranges. Furthermore, discrepancies between those parameters were also investigated. Based on the experimental result confirmed the intercorrelation between cement content and confining pressure with a power function. In addition, higher cement ratios have discrepancies, conversely with low mixing ratios.

Keywords: amount of cement, elastic zone, high-speed railway, lightweight structure

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Authors: Daphne Sobolev, Niklas Voege

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During the last three decades, consumer ethics perceptions have attracted the attention of a large number of researchers. Nevertheless, little is known about the effect of the cognitive and situational contexts of the decision on ethics judgments. In this paper, the interrelationship between consumers’ ethics perceptions, legality evaluations and mind-sets are explored. Legality evaluations represent the cognitive context of the ethical judgments, whereas mind-sets represent their situational context. Drawing on moral development theories and priming theories, it is hypothesized that both factors are significantly related to consumer ethics perceptions. To test this hypothesis, 289 participants were allocated to three mind-set experimental conditions and a control group. Participants in the mind-set conditions were primed for aggressiveness, politeness or awareness to the negative legal consequences of breaking the law. Mind-sets were induced using a sentence-unscrambling task, in which target words were included. Ethics and legality judgments were assessed using consumer ethics and internet ethics questionnaires. All participants were asked to rate the ethicality and legality of consumer actions described in the questionnaires. The results showed that consumer ethics and legality perceptions were significantly correlated. Moreover, including legality evaluations as a variable in ethics judgment models increased the predictive power of the models. In addition, inducing aggressiveness in participants reduced their sensitivity to ethical issues; priming awareness to negative legal consequences increased their sensitivity to ethics when uncertainty about the legality of the judged scenario was high. Furthermore, the correlation between ethics and legality judgments was significant overall mind-set conditions. However, the results revealed conflicts between ethics and legality perceptions: consumers considered 10%-14% of the presented behaviors unethical and legal, or ethical and illegal. In 10-23% of the questions, participants indicated that they did not know whether the described action was legal or not. In addition, an asymmetry between the effects of aggressiveness and politeness priming was found. The results show that the legality judgments and mind-sets interact with consumer ethics perceptions. Thus, they portray consumer ethical judgments as dynamical processes which are inseparable from other cognitive processes and situational variables. They highlight that legal and ethical education, as well as adequate situational cues at the service place, could have a positive effect on consumer ethics perceptions. Theoretical contribution is discussed.

Keywords: consumer ethics, legality judgments, mind-set, priming, aggressiveness

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Authors: Maggie Hui

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Risk management is not a new concept; however, it is an uncharted area as applied to the translation process and translator training. Risk managers are responsible for managing risk, i.e. adopting strategies with the intention to minimize loss and maximize gains in spite of uncertainty. Which risk strategy to use often depends on the frequency of an event (i.e. probability) and the severity of its outcomes (i.e. impact). This is basically the way translation/localization project managers handle risk management. Although risk management could involve both positive and negative impacts, impact seems to be always negative in professional translators’ management models, e.g. how many days of project time are lost or how many clients are lost. However, for analysis of translation performance, the impact should be possibly positive (e.g. increased readability of the translation) or negative (e.g. loss of source-text information). In other words, the straight business model of risk management is not directly applicable to the study of risk management in the rendition process. This research aims to explore trainee translators’ risk managing while translating in a simulated setting that involves translator-client relations. A two-cycle experiment involving two roles, the translator and the simulated client, was carried out with a class of translation students to test the effects of the main variable of peer-group interaction. The researcher made use of a user-friendly screen-voice recording freeware to record subjects’ screen activities, including every word the translator typed and every change they made to the rendition, the websites they browsed and the reference tools they used, in addition to the verbalization of their thoughts throughout the process. The research observes the translation procedures subjects considered and finally adopted, and looks into the justifications for their procedures, in order to interpret their risk management. The qualitative and quantitative results of this study have some implications for translator training: (a) the experience of being a client seems to reinforce the translator’s risk aversion; (b) there is a wide gap between the translator’s internal risk management and their external presentation of risk; and (c) the use of role-playing simulation can empower students’ learning by enhancing their attitudinal or psycho-physiological competence, interpersonal competence and strategic competence.

Keywords: risk management, role-playing simulation, translation pedagogy, translator-client relations

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Authors: Mehran Barani Shikhrobat, Roger Flanagan

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The construction planning and scheduling based on using the current tools and techniques is resulted deterministic in nature (Gantt chart, CPM) or applying a very little probability of completion (PERT) for each task. However, every project embodies assumptions and influences and should start with a complete set of clearly defined goals and constraints that remain constant throughout the duration of the project. Construction planners continue to apply the traditional methods and tools of “hard” project management that were developed for “ideal projects,” neglecting the potential influence of complexity on the design and construction process. The aim of this research is to investigate the emergence and growth of complexity in project planning and to provide a model to consider the influence of complexity on the total project duration at the post-contract award pre-construction stage of a project. The literature review showed that complexity originates from different sources of environment, technical, and workflow interactions. They can be divided into two categories of complexity factors, first, project tasks, and second, project organisation management. Project tasks may originate from performance, lack of resources, or environmental changes for a specific task. Complexity factors that relate to organisation and management refer to workflow and interdependence of different parts. The literature review highlighted the ineffectiveness of traditional tools and techniques in planning for complexity. However, this research focus on understanding the fundamental causes of the complexity of construction projects were investigated through a questionnaire with industry experts. The results were used to develop a model that considers the core complexity factors and their interactions. System dynamics were used to investigate the model to consider the influence of complexity on project planning. Feedback from experts revealed 20 major complexity factors that impact project planning. The factors are divided into five categories known as core complexity factors. To understand the weight of each factor in comparison, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis method is used. The comparison showed that externalities are ranked as the biggest influence across the complexity factors. The research underlines that there are many internal and external factors that impact project activities and the project overall. This research shows the importance of considering the influence of complexity on the project master plan undertaken at the post-contract award pre-construction phase of a project.

Keywords: project planning, project complexity measurement, planning uncertainty management, project risk management, strategic project scheduling

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Authors: Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu

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Despite the significance of finance as a major trade lubricant, evidence in the literature alludes to its scarcity and increasing cost, especially in developing countries where small and medium-scale enterprises are worst affected. The creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) in 2018, an organ of the African Union (AU), was meant to serve as a beacon for deepening economic integration through the removal of trade barriers inhibiting intra-African trade and movement of persons, among others. Hence, this research explores the role Islamic trade finance (ITF) could play in spurring intra- and inter-African trade. The study involves six countries; Egypt, Kenya, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia, and employs survey research, a total of 430 sample data, and SmartPLS Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) techniques in its analyses. We find strong evidence that Shari’ah, legal and regulatory compliance issues of the ITF institutions rhythm with the internal, national, and international compliance requirements equally as the unique instruments applied in ITF. In addition, ITF was found to be largely driven by global economic and political stability, socially responsible finance, ethical and moral considerations, risk-sharing, and resilience of the global Islamic finance industry. Further, SMEs, Governments, and Importers are the major beneficiary sectors. By and large, AfCFTA’s protocols align with the principles of ITF and are therefore suited for the proliferation of Islamic finance in the continent. And, while AML/KYC and BASEL requirements, compliance to AAOIFI and IFSB standards, paucity of Shari'ah experts, threats to global security, and increasing global economic uncertainty pose as major impediments, the future of ITF would be shaped by a greater need for institutional and policy support, global economic cum political stability, robust regulatory framework, and digital technology/fintech. The study calls for the licensing of more ITF institutions in the continent, participation of multilateral institutions in ITF, and harmonization of Shariah standards.

Keywords: AfCFTA, islamic trade finance, murabaha, letter of credit, forwarding

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Authors: Dejenie Birile Gemeda, Wilhelm Stork

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The power system is one of the most important systems in modern society. The existing power system is approaching the critical operating limits as views of several power system operators. With the increase of load demand, high capacity and long transmission networks are widely used to meet the requirement. With the integration of renewable energies such as wind and solar, the uncertainty, intermittence bring bigger challenges to the operation of power systems. These dynamic uncertainties in the power system lead to power disturbances. The disturbances in a heavily stressed power system cause distance relays to mal-operation or false alarms during post fault power oscillations. This unintended operation of these relays may propagate and trigger cascaded trappings leading to total power system blackout. This is due to relays inability to take an appropriate tripping decision based on ensuing power swing. According to the N-1 criterion, electric power systems are generally designed to withstand a single failure without causing the violation of any operating limit. As a result, some overloaded components such as overhead transmission lines can still work for several hours under overload conditions. However, when a large power swing happens in the power system, the settings of the distance relay of zone 3 may trip the transmission line with a short time delay, and they will be acting so quickly that the system operator has no time to respond and stop the cascading. Misfiring of relays in absence of fault due to power swing may have a significant loss in economic performance, thus a loss in revenue for power companies. This research paper proposes a method to distinguish stable power swing from unstable using dynamic line rating (DLR) in response to power swing or disturbances. As opposed to static line rating (SLR), dynamic line rating support effective mitigation actions against propagating cascading outages in a power grid. Effective utilization of existing transmission lines capacity using machine learning DLR predictions will improve the operating point of distance relay protection, thus reducing unintended power outages due to power swing.

Keywords: blackout, cascading outages, dynamic line rating, power swing, overhead transmission lines

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Tamara Vagg, Cathy Shortt, Claire Hickey, Joseph A. Eustace, Barry J. Plant, Sabin Tabirca

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Introduction: Paper-based patient passports have been used advantageously for older patients, patients with diabetes, and patients with learning difficulties. However, these passports can experience issues with data security, patients forgetting to bring the passport, patients being over encumbered, and uncertainty with who is responsible for entering and managing data in this passport. These issues could be resolved by transferring the paper-based system to a convenient platform such as a smartphone application (app). Background: Life expectancy for some Cystic Fibrosis (CF) patients are rising and as such new complications and procedures are predicted. Subsequently, there is a need for education and management interventions that can benefit CF adults. This research proposes a CF patient passport to record basic medical information through a smartphone app which will allow CF adults access to their basic medical information. Aim: To provide CF patients with their basic medical information via mobile multimedia so that they can receive care when traveling abroad or between CF centres. Moreover, by recording their basic medical information, CF patients may become more aware of their own condition and more active in their health care. Methods: This app is designed by a CF multidisciplinary team to be a lightweight reflection of a hospital patient file. The passport app is created using PhoneGap so that it can be deployed for both Android and iOS devices. Data entered into the app is encrypted and stored locally only. The app is password protected and includes the ability to set reminders and a graph to visualise weight and lung function over time. The app is introduced to seven participants as part of a stress test. The participants are asked to test the performance and usability of the app and report any issues identified. Results: Feedback and suggestions received via this testing include the ability to reorder the list of clinical appointments via date, an open format of recording dates (in the event specifics are unknown), and a drop down menu for data which is difficult to enter (such as bugs found in mucus). The app is found to be usable and accessible and is now being prepared for a pilot study with adult CF patients. Conclusions: It is anticipated that such an app will be beneficial to CF adult patients when travelling abroad and between CF centres.

Keywords: Cystic Fibrosis, digital patient passport, mHealth, self management

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Authors: Kangrij Roeksiripat

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Street vending is one of the informal economy activities which considered significance to Thai people in the economic and the day-to-day social life. It had been believed that the street vendor is a group of the poor and uneducated people. With the increasing numbers of the street vendor occupying space on public sidewalks especially in central business districts, it becomes unclear whether street vending continues as a solution to unemployment for access labors. This research attempts to study and analyze types of street vendors in Bangkok under the informal economy framework. The debate on the heterogeneous informal economy has categorized into four schools; the dualism, the structuralism, the legalism and the voluntarism. The examination also embodies with market concept with Porter’s Five Forces of Competitive Position Model analysis and the interviews with the street vendors in three case study areas: Inner zone (Pathumwan district - the sidewalk on the opposite side of Siam Paragon mall), Middle zone (Ramkhamhaeng district - the sidewalk on the opposite side of Ramkhamhaeng University) and Outer zone (Minburi district- the sidewalk of Sriburanukit Road). The result indicates that most of street vendors in Siam square are voluntarily choose to make a living in vending on a sidewalk and tend to take it as a long-term occupation even though they can be in formal wage employment. Moreover, average income and positive attitude towards self-employed are the important factors that drive them to operate street vending businesses. Meanwhile, street vending is often a family enterprise in Ramkhamhaeng area and most vendors do not wish to transform their businesses into the formal sectors. Whereas the survey conducted in Sriburankit Road reveals that almost all of street vendors migrated from other provinces and were previously paid as the unskilled workers in formal sectors. They moved to informal trades because of the uncertainty of employment in the mainstream sectors and the inconsistent income with knowledge support of friends and relatives from the same hometown. In particular, the result reveals a common pattern that street vending is the very first occupation of some group of vendors and they will continue to engage in this activity. Thus, it is important for the government to design optimal policy which not only integrating informal workers into the formal economy but also monitoring the enforcement of regulations on the modern informal economy.

Keywords: informal economy, sidewalks, street vendors, occupation

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Authors: Stacy Jarvis

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A silent culmination is a musical technique that creates or increases tension in a piece of music. It is a type of cadence in which the music gradually builds to a climax but suddenly stops without any resolution. This technique can create suspense and anticipation in the listener as they wait to find out what will happen next. It can also draw attention to a particular element of the music, such as a particular instrument or vocal line. Silent culminations can evoke a sense of mystery or ambiguity by not resolving the tension created. This technique has been used by composers of all musical genres, from classical to jazz, as well as in film scores. Silent culminations can also make a piece of music more dynamic and exciting. Verdi’s Aida is a classic example of the use of silent culminations to create tension and suspense. Throughout the opera, Verdi uses a technique of gradually building to a climax, only to abruptly stop without any resolution. This technique brings out the story's drama and intensity and creates anticipation for the climactic moments. For example, at the end of the second act, Verdi reaches a crescendo of tension as Aida and Radamès swear their undying love for one another, only to stop with a moment of silence. This technique also helps to draw attention to the important moments in the story, such as the duets between Aida and Radamès. By stopping the music just before it resolves, Verdi can create an atmosphere of anticipation and suspense that carries through to the opera's end. Silent culminations are used greatly in Aida and are integral to Verdi’s dramatic style. In his symphonic poem Mazeppa, Tchaikovsky uses silent culminations to emphasize the piece's drama and powerful emotions. The piece begins with a gentle introduction but quickly builds to a powerful climax. Throughout the piece, Tchaikovsky uses silent culminations to create tension and suspense, drawing the listener in and heightening the intensity of the music 2. The most dramatic moment of the piece comes when the music builds to a frantic climax and then suddenly cuts out, leaving the listener hanging in anticipation of what will happen next. This technique creates an intense atmosphere and leaves the listener eager to hear what comes next. In addition, the use of silent culminations helps to emphasize the strong emotions of the piece, such as fear, horror, and despair. By not resolving the tension with a resolution, the listener is left with a feeling of uneasiness and uncertainty that helps to convey the story of Mazeppa’s tragic fate.

Keywords: Verdi, Tchaikovsky, opera, culmination

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Authors: Aya Al Masri, Stefaan Carpentier, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, an accurate calculation of the patient skin-dose mapping is essential. For most machines, the 'Dose Area Product (DAP)' and fluoroscopy time are the only information available for the operator. These two parameters are a very poor indicator of the peak skin dose. We developed a mathematical model that reconstructs the magnitude (delivered dose), shape, and localization of each irradiation field on the patient skin. In case of critical dose exceeding, the system generates warning alerts. We present the results of its comparison with clinical studies. Materials and methods: Two series of comparison of the skin-dose mapping of our mathematical model with clinical studies were performed: 1. At a first time, clinical tests were performed on patient phantoms. Gafchromic films were placed on the table of the IR machine under of PMMA plates (thickness = 20 cm) that simulate the patient. After irradiation, the film darkening is proportional to the radiation dose received by the patient's back and reflects the shape of the X-ray field. After film scanning and analysis, the exact dose value can be obtained at each point of the mapping. Four experimentation were performed, constituting a total of 34 acquisition incidences including all possible exposure configurations. 2. At a second time, clinical trials were launched on real patients during real 'Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)' procedures for a total of 80 cases. Gafchromic films were placed at the back of patients. We performed comparisons on the dose values, as well as the distribution, and the shape of irradiation fields between the skin dose mapping of our mathematical model and Gafchromic films. Results: The comparison between the dose values shows a difference less than 15%. Moreover, our model shows a very good geometric accuracy: all fields have the same shape, size and location (uncertainty < 5%). Conclusion: This study shows that our model is a reliable tool to warn physicians when a high radiation dose is reached. Thus, deterministic effects can be avoided.

Keywords: clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, mathematical model, patient's skin-dose mapping.

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Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sushovan Ghosh, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosols directly affect Earth’s radiation budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. While the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) has decreased over the years, it is still higher than that of greenhouse gas forcing, particularly in the South Asian region, due to high heterogeneity in their chemical properties. Understanding the Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aerosol composition is critical in improving climate prediction. Studies using satellite data, in-situ and aircraft measurements, and models have investigated the Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol characteristics. In this study, we have taken aerosol data from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) level-2 version 23 aerosol products retrieved at 4.4 km and radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 21 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. MISR aerosol product includes size and shapes segregated aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA). Additionally, 74 aerosol mixtures are included in version 23 data that is used for aerosol speciation. We have seasonally mapped aerosol optical and microphysical properties from MISR for India at quarter degrees resolution. Results show strong Spatio-temporal variability, with a constant higher value of AOD for the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The contribution of small-size particles is higher throughout the year, spatially during winter months. SSA is found to be overestimated where absorbing particles are present. The climatological map of short wave (SW) ARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) shows a strong cooling except in only a few places (values ranging from +2.5o to -22.5o). Cooling due to aerosols is higher in the absence of clouds. Higher negative values of ARF are found over the IGP region, given the high aerosol concentration above the region. Surface ARF values are everywhere negative for our study domain, with higher values in clear conditions. The results strongly correlate with AOD from MISR and ARF from CERES.

Keywords: aerosol Radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, single scattering albedo (SSA), CERES

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Authors: Kseniia Zviagintseva, Brett Buttliere

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Science is fundamentally a problem-solving enterprise, and scientists pay more attention to the negative things, that cause them dissonance and negative affective state of uncertainty or contradiction. While this is agreed upon by philosophers of science, there are few empirical demonstrations. Here we examine the keywords from those papers published by PLoS in 2014 and show with several sentiment analyzers that negative keywords are studied more than positive keywords. Our dataset is the 927,406 keywords of 32,870 scientific articles in all fields published in 2014 by the journal PLOS ONE (collected from Altmetric.com). Counting how often the 47,415 unique keywords are used, we can examine whether those negative topics are studied more than positive. In order to find the sentiment of the keywords, we utilized two sentiment analysis tools, Hu and Liu (2004) and SentiStrength (2014). The results below are for Hu and Liu as these are the less convincing results. The average keyword was utilized 19.56 times, with half of the keywords being utilized only 1 time and the maximum number of uses being 18,589 times. The keywords identified as negative were utilized 37.39 times, on average, with the positive keywords being utilized 14.72 times and the neutral keywords - 19.29, on average. This difference is only marginally significant, with an F value of 2.82, with a p of .05, but one must keep in mind that more than half of the keywords are utilized only 1 time, artificially increasing the variance and driving the effect size down. To examine more closely, we looked at those top 25 most utilized keywords that have a sentiment. Among the top 25, there are only two positive words, ‘care’ and ‘dynamics’, in position numbers 5 and 13 respectively, with all the rest being identified as negative. ‘Diseases’ is the most studied keyword with 8,790 uses, with ‘cancer’ and ‘infectious’ being the second and fourth most utilized sentiment-laden keywords. The sentiment analysis is not perfect though, as the words ‘diseases’ and ‘disease’ are split by taking 1st and 3rd positions. Combining them, they remain as the most common sentiment-laden keyword, being utilized 13,236 times. More than just splitting the words, the sentiment analyzer logs ‘regression’ and ‘rat’ as negative, and these should probably be considered false positives. Despite these potential problems, the effect is apparent, as even the positive keywords like ‘care’ could or should be considered negative, since this word is most commonly utilized as a part of ‘health care’, ‘critical care’ or ‘quality of care’ and generally associated with how to improve it. All in all, the results suggest that negative concepts are studied more, also providing support for the notion that science is most generally a problem-solving enterprise. The results also provide evidence that negativity and contradiction are related to greater productivity and positive outcomes.

Keywords: bibliometrics, keywords analysis, negativity bias, positive and negative words, scientific papers, scientometrics

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Authors: Vinod Ponnagandla, Brenton McLaury, Siamack Shirazi

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Sand production can lead to deposition of particles or erosion. Low production rates resulting in deposition can partially clog systems and cause under deposit corrosion. Commercially available nonintrusive acoustic sand detectors are attractive as they claim to detect sand production. Acoustic sand detectors are used during oil and gas production; however, operators often do not know the threshold detection limits of these devices. It is imperative to know the detection limits to appropriately plan for cleaning of separation equipment or examine risk of erosion. These monitors are based on detecting the acoustic signature of sand as the particles impact the pipe walls. The objective of this work is to determine threshold detection limits for acoustic sand monitors that are commercially available. The minimum threshold sand concentration that can be detected in a pipe are determined as a function of flowing gas and liquid velocities. A large scale flow loop with a 4-inch test section is utilized. Commercially available sand monitors (ClampOn and Roxar) are evaluated for different flow regimes, sand sizes and pipe orientation (vertical and horizontal). The manufacturers’ recommend that the monitors be placed on a bend to maximize the number of particle impacts, so results are shown for monitors placed at 45 and 90 degree positions in a bend. Acoustic sand monitors that clamp to the outside of pipe are passive and listen for solid particle impact noise. The threshold sand rate is calculated by eliminating the background noise created by the flow of gas and liquid in the pipe for various flow regimes that are generated in horizontal and vertical test sections. The average sand sizes examined are 150 and 300 microns. For stratified and bubbly flows the threshold sand rates are much higher than other flow regimes such as slug and annular flow regimes that are investigated. However, the background noise generated by slug flow regime is very high and cause a high uncertainty in detection limits. The threshold sand rates for annular flow and dry gas conditions are the lowest because of high gas velocities. The effects of monitor placement around elbows that are in vertical and horizontal pipes are also examined for 150 micron. The results show that the threshold sand rates that are detected in vertical orientation are generally lower for all various flow regimes that are investigated.

Keywords: acoustic monitor, sand, multiphase flow, threshold

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Authors: Hammad T. Janjuhah, Josep Sanjuan, Mohamed K. Salah

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Biological and chemical activities in carbonates are responsible for the complexity of the pore system. Primary porosity is generally of natural origin while secondary porosity is subject to chemical reactivity through diagenetic processes. To understand the integrated part of hydrocarbon exploration, it is necessary to understand the carbonate pore system. However, the current porosity classification scheme is limited to adequately predict the petrophysical properties of different reservoirs having various origins and depositional environments. Rock classification provides a descriptive method for explaining the lithofacies but makes no significant contribution to the application of porosity and permeability (poro-perm) correlation. The Central Luconia carbonate system (Malaysia) represents a good example of pore complexity (in terms of nature and origin) mainly related to diagenetic processes which have altered the original reservoir. For quantitative analysis, 32 high-resolution images of each thin section were taken using transmitted light microscopy. The quantification of grains, matrix, cement, and macroporosity (pore types) was achieved using a petrographic analysis of thin sections and FESEM images. The point counting technique was used to estimate the amount of macroporosity from thin section, which was then subtracted from the total porosity to derive the microporosity. The quantitative observation of thin sections revealed that the mouldic porosity (macroporosity) is the dominant porosity type present, whereas the microporosity seems to correspond to a sum of 40 to 50% of the total porosity. It has been proven that these Miocene carbonates contain a significant amount of microporosity, which significantly complicates the estimation and production of hydrocarbons. Neglecting its impact can increase uncertainty about estimating hydrocarbon reserves. Due to the diversity of geological parameters, the application of existing porosity classifications does not allow a better understanding of the poro-perm relationship. However, the classification can be improved by including the pore types and pore structures where they can be divided into macro- and microporosity. Such studies of microporosity identification/classification represent now a major concern in limestone reservoirs around the world.

Keywords: overview of porosity classification, reservoir characterization, microporosity, carbonate reservoir

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Authors: Yi-Chun Kuo, Jo-Chieh Lin

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The objective of a supply chain strategy is to reduce waste and increase efficiency to attain cost benefits, and to guarantee supply chain flexibility when facing the ever-changing market environment in order to meet customer requirements. Strategy implementation aims to fulfill common goals and attain benefits by integrating upstream and downstream enterprises, sharing information, conducting common planning, and taking part in decision making, so as to enhance the overall performance of the supply chain. With the rise of outsourcing and globalization, the increasing dependence on suppliers and customers and the rapid development of information technology, the complexity and uncertainty of the supply chain have intensified, and supply chain vulnerability has surged, resulting in adverse effects on supply chain performance. Thus, this study aims to use supply chain vulnerability as a moderating variable and apply structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the relationships among supply chain strategy, supply chain integration, and supply chain performance, as well as the moderating effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance. The data investigation of this study was questionnaires which were collected from the management level of enterprises in Taiwan and China, 149 questionnaires were received. The result of confirmatory factor analysis shows that the path coefficients of supply chain strategy on supply chain integration and supply chain performance are positive (0.497, t= 4.914; 0.748, t= 5.919), having a significantly positive effect. Supply chain integration is also significantly positively correlated to supply chain performance (0.192, t = 2.273). The moderating effects of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain strategy and supply chain integration to supply chain performance are significant (7.407; 4.687). In Taiwan, 97.73% of enterprises are small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focusing on receiving original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) orders. In order to meet the needs of customers and to respond to market changes, these enterprises especially focus on supply chain flexibility and their integration with the upstream and downstream enterprises. According to the observation of this research, the effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance is significant, and so enterprises need to attach great importance to the management of supply chain risk and conduct risk analysis on their suppliers in order to formulate response strategies when facing emergency situations. At the same time, risk management is incorporated into the supply chain so as to reduce the effect of supply chain vulnerability on the overall supply chain performance.

Keywords: supply chain integration, supply chain performance, supply chain vulnerability, structural equation modeling

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