Search results for: uncertainty of cash flow
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5777

Search results for: uncertainty of cash flow

5537 An Empirical Investigation of Uncertainty and the Lumpy Investment Channel of Monetary Policy

Authors: Min Fang, Jiaxi Yang

Abstract:

Monetary policy could be less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility than during normal times. In this paper, we argue that elevated volatility leads to a decrease in extensive margin investment incentive so that nominal stimulus generates less aggregate investment. To do this, we first empirically document that high volatility weakens firms’ investment responses to monetary stimulus. Such effects depend on the lumpiness nature of the firm-level investment. The findings are that the channel exists for all of the physical investment, innovation investment, and organization investment.

Keywords: investment, irreversibility, volatility, uncertainty, firm heterogeneity, monetary policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
5536 Optimized Real Ground Motion Scaling for Vulnerability Assessment of Building Considering the Spectral Uncertainty and Shape

Authors: Chen Bo, Wen Zengping

Abstract:

Based on the results of previous studies, we focus on the research of real ground motion selection and scaling method for structural performance-based seismic evaluation using nonlinear dynamic analysis. The input of earthquake ground motion should be determined appropriately to make them compatible with the site-specific hazard level considered. Thus, an optimized selection and scaling method are established including the use of not only Monte Carlo simulation method to create the stochastic simulation spectrum considering the multivariate lognormal distribution of target spectrum, but also a spectral shape parameter. Its applications in structural fragility analysis are demonstrated through case studies. Compared to the previous scheme with no consideration of the uncertainty of target spectrum, the method shown here can make sure that the selected records are in good agreement with the median value, standard deviation and spectral correction of the target spectrum, and greatly reveal the uncertainty feature of site-specific hazard level. Meanwhile, it can help improve computational efficiency and matching accuracy. Given the important infection of target spectrum’s uncertainty on structural seismic fragility analysis, this work can provide the reasonable and reliable basis for structural seismic evaluation under scenario earthquake environment.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling method, seismic fragility analysis, spectral shape

Procedia PDF Downloads 288
5535 Effect of Fractional Flow Curves on the Heavy Oil and Light Oil Recoveries in Petroleum Reservoirs

Authors: Abdul Jamil Nazari, Shigeo Honma

Abstract:

This paper evaluates and compares the effect of fractional flow curves on the heavy oil and light oil recoveries in a petroleum reservoir. Fingering of flowing water is one of the serious problems of the oil displacement by water and another problem is the estimation of the amount of recover oil from a petroleum reservoir. To address these problems, the fractional flow of heavy oil and light oil are investigated. The fractional flow approach treats the multi-phases flow rate as a total mixed fluid and then describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. Laboratory experiments are implemented for two different types of oils, heavy oil, and light oil, to experimentally obtain relative permeability and fractional flow curves. Application of the light oil fractional curve, which exhibits a regular S-shape, to the water flooding method showed that a large amount of mobile oil in the reservoir is displaced by water injection. In contrast, the fractional flow curve of heavy oil does not display an S-shape because of its high viscosity. Although the advance of the injected waterfront is faster than in light oil reservoirs, a significant amount of mobile oil remains behind the waterfront.

Keywords: fractional flow, relative permeability, oil recovery, water fingering

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
5534 Gas-Liquid Flow Regimes in Vertical Venturi Downstream of Horizontal Blind-Tee

Authors: Muhammad Alif Bin Razali, Cheng-Gang Xie, Wai Lam Loh

Abstract:

A venturi device is commonly used as an integral part of a multiphase flowmeter (MPFM) in real-time oil-gas production monitoring. For an accurate determination of individual phase fraction and flowrate, a gas-liquid flow ideally needs to be well mixed in the venturi measurement section. Partial flow mixing is achieved by installing a venturi vertically downstream of the blind-tee pipework that ‘homogenizes’ the incoming horizontal gas-liquid flow. In order to study in-depth the flow-mixing effect of the blind-tee, gas-liquid flows are captured at blind-tee and venturi sections by using a high-speed video camera and a purpose-built transparent test rig, over a wide range of superficial liquid velocities (0.3 to 2.4m/s) and gas volume fractions (10 to 95%). Electrical capacitance sensors are built to measure the instantaneous holdup (of oil-gas flows) at the venturi inlet and throat. Flow regimes and flow (a)symmetry are investigated based on analyzing the statistical features of capacitance sensors’ holdup time-series data and of the high-speed video time-stacked images. The perceived homogenization effect of the blind-tee on the incoming intermittent horizontal flow regimes is found to be relatively small across the tested flow conditions. A horizontal (blind-tee) to vertical (venturi) flow-pattern transition map is proposed based on gas and liquid mass fluxes (weighted by the Baker parameters).

Keywords: blind-tee, flow visualization, gas-liquid two-phase flow, MPFM

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5533 Dual-Channel Reliable Breast Ultrasound Image Classification Based on Explainable Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification

Authors: Haonan Hu, Shuge Lei, Dasheng Sun, Huabin Zhang, Kehong Yuan, Jian Dai, Jijun Tang

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the classification task of breast ultrasound images and conducts research on the reliability measurement of classification results. A dual-channel evaluation framework was developed based on the proposed inference reliability and predictive reliability scores. For the inference reliability evaluation, human-aligned and doctor-agreed inference rationals based on the improved feature attribution algorithm SP-RISA are gracefully applied. Uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the predictive reliability via the test time enhancement. The effectiveness of this reliability evaluation framework has been verified on the breast ultrasound clinical dataset YBUS, and its robustness is verified on the public dataset BUSI. The expected calibration errors on both datasets are significantly lower than traditional evaluation methods, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed reliability measurement.

Keywords: medical imaging, ultrasound imaging, XAI, uncertainty measurement, trustworthy AI

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5532 Load Flow Analysis of 5-IEEE Bus Test System Using Matlab

Authors: H. Abaal, R. Skouri

Abstract:

A power flow analysis is a steady-state study of power grid. The goal of power flow analysis is to determine the voltages, currents, and real and reactive power flows in a system under a given load conditions. In this paper, the load flow analysis program by Newton Raphson polar coordinates Method is developed. The effectiveness of the developed program is evaluated through a simple 5-IEEE test system bus by simulations using MATLAB.

Keywords: power flow analysis, Newton Raphson polar coordinates method

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5531 Virtual Modelling of Turbulent Fibre Flow in a Low Consistency Refiner for a Sustainable and Energy Efficient Process

Authors: Simon Ingelsten, Anton Lundberg, Vijay Shankar, Lars-Olof Landström, Örjan Johansson

Abstract:

The flow in a low consistency disc refiner is simulated with the aim of identifying flow structures possibly being of importance for a future study to optimise the energy efficiency in refining processes. A simplified flow geometry is used, where a single groove of a refiner disc is modelled. Two different fibre models are used to simulate turbulent fibre suspension flow in the groove. The first model is a Bingham viscoplastic fluid model where the fibre suspension is treated as a non-Newtonian fluid with a yield stress. The second model is a new model proposed in a recent study where the suspended fibres effect on flow is accounted for through a modelled orientation distribution function (ODF). Both models yielded similar results with small differences. Certain flow characteristics that were expected and that was found in the literature were identified. Some of these flow characteristics may be of importance in a future process to optimise the refiner geometry to increase the energy efficiency. Further study and a more detailed flow model is; however, needed in order for the simulations to yield results valid for quantitative use in such an optimisation study. An outline of the next steps in such a study is proposed.

Keywords: disc refiner, fibre flow, sustainability, turbulence modelling

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5530 Implementation of a Lattice Boltzmann Method for Pulsatile Flow with Moment Based Boundary Condition

Authors: Zainab A. Bu Sinnah, David I. Graham

Abstract:

The Lattice Boltzmann Method has been developed and used to simulate both steady and unsteady fluid flow problems such as turbulent flows, multiphase flow and flows in the vascular system. As an example, the study of blood flow and its properties can give a greater understanding of atherosclerosis and the flow parameters which influence this phenomenon. The blood flow in the vascular system is driven by a pulsating pressure gradient which is produced by the heart. As a very simple model of this, we simulate plane channel flow under periodic forcing. This pulsatile flow is essentially the standard Poiseuille flow except that the flow is driven by the periodic forcing term. Moment boundary conditions, where various moments of the particle distribution function are specified, are applied at solid walls. We used a second-order single relaxation time model and investigated grid convergence using two distinct approaches. In the first approach, we fixed both Reynolds and Womersley numbers and varied relaxation time with grid size. In the second approach, we fixed the Womersley number and relaxation time. The expected second-order convergence was obtained for the second approach. For the first approach, however, the numerical method converged, but not necessarily to the appropriate analytical result. An explanation is given for these observations.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, single relaxation time, pulsatile flow, moment based boundary condition

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5529 Introducing the Accounting Reform of Public Finance in the Czech Republic

Authors: M. Otrusinova, E. Pastuszkova

Abstract:

The article is addressing the currently ongoing reform processes of transforming the public finance accounting based on cash flow principle to accrual principle. The presented analysis concerns the issues associated with the introduction of the state accounting from the perspective of municipal employees in compiling the opinions of financial experts in conditions of the Czech Republic. The aim of this paper is to present outcomes of analysis focused on currently discussed topics which are related to introducing the accrual principle into accounting of selected entities, especially municipalities and municipality-funded institutions. The output of the paper consists of comparing the application of the accrual principle in the financial reporting of municipalities in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In conclusion and based on the survey, respondents from Slovak municipalities that have already adopted the accrual accounting principle show better opinion than Czech municipalities.

Keywords: accrual principle, accounting, accounting reform, Czech Republic, municipalities, public finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
5528 Numerical Investigation of Blood Flow around a Leaflet Valve through a Perforating Vein

Authors: Zohreh Sheidaei, Farhad Sadegh Moghanlou, Rahim Vesal

Abstract:

Diseases related to leg venous system are common worldwide. An incompetent vein with deformed wall and insufficient valves affects flow field of blood and disrupts the process of blood circulating system. Having enough knowledge about the flow field through veins will help find new ways to cure the related diseases. In the present study, blood flow around a leaflet valve of a perforating vein is investigated numerically by Finite Element Method. Flow behavior and vortexes, generated around the leaflet valves, are studied considering valve opening percentage. Obtained velocity and pressure fields show mechanical stresses on vein wall and these valves and consequently introduce the regions susceptible to deformation.

Keywords: fluid flow, leaflet valve, numerical investigation, perforating vein

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5527 Effect of Hydraulic Diameter on Flow Boiling Instability in a Single Microtube with Vertical Upward Flow

Authors: Qian You, Ibrahim Hassan, Lyes Kadem

Abstract:

An experiment is conducted to fundamentally investigate flow oscillation characteristics in different sizes of single microtubes in vertical upward flow direction. Three microtubes have 0.889 mm, 0.533 mm, and 0.305 mm hydraulic diameters with 100 mm identical heated length. The mass flux of the working fluid FC-72 varies from 700 kg/m2•s to 1400 kg/m2•s, and the heat flux is uniformly applied on the tube surface up to 9.4 W/cm2. The subcooled inlet temperature is maintained around 24°C during the experiment. The effect of hydraulic diameter and mass flux are studied. The results showed that they have interactions on the flow oscillations occurrence and behaviors. The onset of flow instability (OFI), which is a threshold of unstable flow, usually appears in large microtube with diversified and sustained flow oscillations, while the transient point, which is the point when the flow turns from one stable state to another suddenly, is more observed in small microtube without characterized flow oscillations due to the bubble confinement. The OFI/transient point occurs early as hydraulic diameter reduces at a given mass flux. The increased mass flux can delay the OFI/transient point occurrence in large hydraulic diameter, but no significant effect in small size. Although the only transient point is observed in the smallest tube, it appears at small heat flux and is not sensitive to mass flux; hence, the smallest microtube is not recommended since increasing heat flux may cause local dryout.

Keywords: flow boiling instability, hydraulic diameter effect, a single microtube, vertical upward flow

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5526 Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Analysis of Computational Fluid Dynamics Designed Flow Regulating Liner (Smart Ditch)

Authors: Saman Mostafazadeh-Fard, Zohrab Samani, Kenneth Suazo

Abstract:

Agricultural ditch liners are used to prevent soil erosion and reduce seepage losses. This paper introduced an approach to validate a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) platform FLOW-3D code and its use to design a flow-regulating corrugated agricultural ditch liner system (Smart Ditch (SM)). Hydrodynamic and sediment transport analyses were performed on the proposed liner flow using the CFD platform FLOW-3D code. The code's hydrodynamic and scour and sediment transport models were calibrated and validated using lab data with an accuracy of 94 % and 95%, respectively. The code was then used to measure hydrodynamic parameters of sublayer turbulent intensity, kinetic energy, dissipation, and packed sediment mass normalized with respect to sublayer flow velocity. Sublayer turbulent intensity, kinetic energy, and dissipation in the SM flow were significantly higher than CR flow. An alternative corrugated liner was also designed, and sediment transport was measured and compared to SM and CR flows. Normalized packed sediment mass with respect to average sublayer flow velocity was 27.8 % lower in alternative flow compared to SM flow. CFD platform FLOW-3D code could effectively be used to design corrugated ditch liner systems and perform hydrodynamic and sediment transport analysis under various corrugation designs.

Keywords: CFD, hydrodynamic, sediment transport, ditch, liner design

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5525 Consideration of Failed Fuel Detector Location through Computational Flow Dynamics Analysis on Primary Cooling System Flow with Two Outlets

Authors: Sanghoon Bae, Hanju Cha

Abstract:

Failed fuel detector (FFD) in research reactor is a very crucial instrument to detect the anomaly from failed fuels in the early stage around primary cooling system (PCS) outlet prior to the decay tank. FFD is considered as a mandatory sensor to ensure the integrity of fuel assemblies and mitigate the consequence from a failed fuel accident. For the effective function of FFD, the location of them should be determined by contemplating the effect from coolant flow around two outlets. For this, the analysis on computational flow dynamics (CFD) should be first performed how the coolant outlet flow including radioactive materials from failed fuels are mixed and discharged through the outlet plenum within certain seconds. The analysis result shows that the outlet flow is well mixed regardless of the position of failed fuel and ultimately illustrates the effect of detector location.

Keywords: computational flow dynamics (CFD), failed fuel detector (FFD), fresh fuel assembly (FFA), spent fuel assembly (SFA)

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5524 Aerodynamic Designing of Supersonic Centrifugal Compressor Stages

Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

Abstract:

Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrated ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φdes deserves additional study.

Keywords: centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser

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5523 Exploring Time-Series Phosphoproteomic Datasets in the Context of Network Models

Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

Abstract:

Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
5522 Numerical Study for Examination of Flow Characteristics in Fractured Gas Reservoirs

Authors: M. K. Kim, C. H. Shin, W. G. Park

Abstract:

Recently, natural gas resources are issued due to alternative and eco-friendly energy policies, and development of even unconventional gas resources including tight gas, coal bed methane and shale gas is being rapidly expanded from North America all over the world. For developing these gas reservoirs, it is necessary to investigate reservoir characteristics by using reservoir simulation. In reservoir simulation, calculation of permeability of fractured zone is very important to predict the gas production. However, it is difficult to accurately calculate the permeability by using conventional methods which use analytic solution for laminar flow. The flow in gas reservoirs exhibits complex flow behavior such as slip around the wall roughness effect and turbulence because the size of the apertures of fractures is ranged over various scales from nano-scale to centi-scale. Therefore, it is required to apply new reservoir flow analysis methods which can accurately consider complex gas flow owing to the geometric characteristics and distributions of various pores and flow paths within gas reservoirs. Hence, in this study, the flow characteristics and the relation between each characteristic variable was investigated and multi-effect was quantified when the fractures are compounded for devising a new calculation model of permeability of fractured zone in gas reservoirs by using CFD.

Keywords: fractured zone, gas reservoir, permeability, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
5521 Investigating Salience Theory’s Implications for Real-Life Decision Making: An Experimental Test for Whether the Allais Paradox Exists under Subjective Uncertainty

Authors: Christoph Ostermair

Abstract:

We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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5520 Analysis of Behavior and Determinants of Cost Stickiness in Manufacturing Companies in Indonesia

Authors: Farizy Yunaz, Catur Sasongko

Abstract:

This research aims to provide the empirical evidence regarding cost stickiness behavior and its determinants on listed manufacturing companies. Hypothesis testing is performed using pooled least square method. The result concludes that there is cost stickiness behavior in selling, general and administrative costs. In term of determinants, firm-specific adjustment costs measured by asset intensity and employee intensity have significant positive impact on the level of cost stickiness. Meanwhile, earnings target and leverage have significant negative impact on the level of cost stickiness. However, the management empire building incentives measured by free cash flow has no significant positive impact.

Keywords: adjustment cost, cost behavior, cost stickiness, earnings target, leverage, management empire building incentive

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5519 A Comparative CFD Study on the Hemodynamics of Flow through an Idealized Symmetric and Asymmetric Stenosed Arteries

Authors: B. Prashantha, S. Anish

Abstract:

The aim of the present study is to computationally evaluate the hemodynamic factors which affect the formation of atherosclerosis and plaque rupture in the human artery. An increase of atherosclerosis disease in the artery causes geometry changes, which results in hemodynamic changes such as flow separation, reattachment, and adhesion of new cells (chemotactic) in the artery. Hence, geometry plays an important role in the determining the nature of hemodynamic patterns. Influence of stenosis in the non-bifurcating artery, under pulsatile flow condition, has been studied on an idealized geometry. Analysis of flow through symmetric and asymmetric stenosis in the artery revealed the significance of oscillating shear index (OSI), flow separation, low WSS zones and secondary flow patterns on plaque formation. The observed characteristic of flow in the post-stenotic region highlight the importance of plaque eccentricity on the formation of secondary stenosis on the arterial wall.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, oscillatory shear index, stenosis nature, wall shear stress

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5518 An Axisymmetric Finite Element Method for Compressible Swirling Flow

Authors: Raphael Zanella, Todd A. Oliver, Karl W. Schulz

Abstract:

This work deals with the finite element approximation of axisymmetric compressible flows with swirl velocity. We are interested in problems where the flow, while weakly dependent on the azimuthal coordinate, may have a strong azimuthal velocity component. We describe the approximation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations with H1-conformal spaces of axisymmetric functions. The weak formulation is implemented in a C++ solver with explicit time marching. The code is first verified with a convergence test on a manufactured solution. The verification is completed by comparing the numerical and analytical solutions in a Poiseuille flow case and a Taylor-Couette flow case. The code is finally applied to the problem of a swirling subsonic air flow in a plasma torch geometry.

Keywords: axisymmetric problem, compressible Navier-Stokes equations, continuous finite elements, swirling flow

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5517 Assessment of Procurement-Demand of Milk Plant Using Quality Control Tools: A Case Study

Authors: Jagdeep Singh, Prem Singh

Abstract:

Milk is considered as an essential and complete food. The present study was conducted at Milk Plant Mohali especially in reference to the procurement section where the cash inflow was maximum, with the objective to achieve higher productivity and reduce wastage of milk. In milk plant it was observed that during the month of Jan-2014 to March-2014 the average procurement of milk was Rs. 4, 19, 361 liter per month and cost of procurement of milk is Rs 35/- per liter. The total cost of procurement thereby equal to Rs. 1crore 46 lakh per month, but there was mismatch in procurement-production of milk, which leads to an average loss of Rs. 12, 94, 405 per month. To solve the procurement-production problem Quality Control Tools like brainstorming, Flow Chart, Cause effect diagram and Pareto analysis are applied wherever applicable. With the successful implementation of Quality Control tools an average saving of Rs. 4, 59, 445 per month is done.

Keywords: milk, procurement-demand, quality control tools,

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5516 Impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program on Household Dietary Diversity and Child Nutrition in Rural Ethiopia

Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

Abstract:

Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

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5515 Automatic Teller Machine System Security by Using Mobile SMS Code

Authors: Husnain Mushtaq, Mary Anjum, Muhammad Aleem

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is used to develop a high security in Automatic Teller Machine (ATM). In these system bankers will collect the mobile numbers from the customers and then provide a code on their mobile number. In most country existing ATM machine use the magnetic card reader. The customer is identifying by inserting an ATM card with magnetic card that hold unique information such as card number and some security limitations. By entering a personal identification number, first the customer is authenticated then will access bank account in order to make cash withdraw or other services provided by the bank. Cases of card fraud are another problem once the user’s bank card is missing and the password is stolen, or simply steal a customer’s card & PIN the criminal will draw all cash in very short time, which will being great financial losses in customer, this type of fraud has increase worldwide. So to resolve this problem we are going to provide the solution using “Mobile SMS code” and ATM “PIN code” in order to improve the verify the security of customers using ATM system and confidence in the banking area.

Keywords: PIN, inquiry, biometric, magnetic strip, iris recognition, face recognition

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5514 On the Fixed Rainfall Intensity: Effects on Overland Flow Resistance, Shear Velocity and on Soil Erosion

Authors: L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

Raindrops and overland flow both are erosive parameters but they do not act by the same way. The overland flow alone tends to shear the soil horizontally and concentrates into rills. In the presence of rain, the soil particles are removed from the soil surface in the form of a uniform sheet layer. In addition to this, raindrops falling on the flow roughen the water and soil surface depending on the flow depth, and retard the velocity, therefore influence shear velocity and Manning’s factor. To investigate this part, agricultural sandy soil, rainfall simulator and a laboratory soil tray of 0.2x1x3 m were the base of this work. Five overland flow depths of 0; 3.28; 4.28; 5.16; 5.60; 5.80 mm were generated under a rainfall intensity of 217.2 mm/h. Sediment concentration control is based on the proportionality of depth/microtopography. The soil loose is directly related to the presence of rain splash on thin sheet flow. The effect of shear velocity on sediment concentration is limited by the value of 5.28 cm/s. In addition to this, the rain splash reduces the soil roughness by breaking the soil crests. The rainfall intensity is the major factor influencing depth and soil erosion. In the presence of rainfall, the shear velocity of the flow is due to two simultaneous effects. The first, which is horizontal, comes from the flow and the second, vertical, is due to the raindrops.

Keywords: flow resistance, laboratory experiments, rainfall simulator, sediment concentration, shear velocity, soil erosion

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5513 Numerical Investigation of Flow Past in a Staggered Tube Bundle

Authors: Kerkouri Abdelkadir

Abstract:

Numerical calculations of turbulent flows are one of the most prominent modern interests in various engineering applications. Due to the difficulty of predicting, following up and studying this flow for computational fluid dynamic (CFD), in this paper, we simulated numerical study of a flow past in a staggered tube bundle, using CFD Code ANSYS FLUENT with several models of turbulence following: k-ε, k-ω and SST approaches. The flow is modeled based on the experimental studies. The predictions of mean velocities are in very good agreement with detailed LDA (Laser Doppler Anemometry) measurements performed in 8 stations along the depth of the array. The sizes of the recirculation zones behind the cylinders are also predicted. The simulations are conducted for Reynolds numbers of 12858. The Reynolds number is set to depend experimental results.

Keywords: flow, tube bundle, ANSYS Fluent, CFD, turbulence, LDA, RANS (k-ε, k-ω, SST)

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5512 Effects of the Flow Direction on the Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer in the Rod Bundle

Authors: Huirui Han, Chao Zhang

Abstract:

The rod bundle is used in the fuel assembly of the supercritical water-cooled nuclear reactor. In the rod bundle, the coolant absorbs the heat contributed by the fission process. Because of the dramatic variations in the thermophysical properties of water at supercritical conditions, it is essential to investigate the heat transfer characteristics of supercritical water in the rod bundle to ensure the safety of the nuclear power plant. In this study, the effects of the flow direction, including horizontal, upward, and downward, on the fluid flow and heat transfer of the supercritical water in the rod bundle were studied numerically. The results show the possibility of gap vortices in the flow subchannels of the rod bundle. In addition, the distributions of the circumferential wall temperature show differences in different flow direction conditions. It was also found that the circumferential cladding surface temperature distribution in the upward flow condition is extremely non-uniform, and there is a large difference between the maximum wall temperatures for different fuel rods.

Keywords: heat transfer, rod bundle, supercritical water, wall temperature

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5511 Numerical Study of Effects of Air Dam on the Flow Field and Pressure Distribution of a Passenger Car

Authors: Min Ye Koo, Ji Ho Ahn, Byung Il You, Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

Everything that is attached to the outside of the vehicle to improve the driving performance of the vehicle by changing the flow characteristics of the surrounding air or to pursue the external personality is called a tuning part. Typical tuning components include front or rear air dam, also known as spoilers, splitter, and side air dam. Particularly, the front air dam prevents the airflow flowing into the lower portion of the vehicle and increases the amount of air flow to the side and front of the vehicle body, thereby reducing lift force generation that lifts the vehicle body, and thus, improving the steering and driving performance of the vehicle. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of anterior air dam in the flow around a sedan passenger car using computational fluid dynamics. The effects of flow velocity, trajectory of fluid particles on static pressure distribution and pressure distribution on body surface were investigated by varying flow velocity and size of air dam. As a result, it has been confirmed that the front air dam improves the flow characteristics, thereby reducing the generation of lift force of the vehicle, so it helps in steering and driving characteristics.

Keywords: numerical study, air dam, flow field, pressure distribution

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5510 Numerical Analysis of Liquid Metal Magnetohydrodynamic Flows in a Manifold with Three Sub-Channels

Authors: Meimei Wen, Chang Nyung Kim

Abstract:

In the current study, three-dimensional liquid metal (LM) magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) flows in a manifold with three sub-channels under a uniform magnetic field are numerically investigated. In the manifold, the electrical current can cross channel walls, thus having influence on the flow distribution in each sub-channel. A case with various arrangements of electric conductivity for different parts of channel walls is considered, yielding different current distributions as well as flow distributions in each sub-channel. Here, the imbalance of mass flow rates in the three sub-channels is addressed. Meanwhile, predicted are detailed behaviors of the flow velocity, pressure, current and electric potential of LM MHD flows with three sub-channels. Commercial software CFX is used for the numerical simulation of LM MHD flows.

Keywords: CFX, liquid metal, manifold, MHD flow

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5509 Representation Data without Lost Compression Properties in Time Series: A Review

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

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5508 Numerical Investigation of Improved Aerodynamic Performance of a NACA 0015 Airfoil Using Synthetic Jet

Authors: K. Boualem, T. Yahiaoui, A. Azzi

Abstract:

Numerical investigations are performed to analyze the flow behavior over NACA0015 and to evaluate the efficiency of synthetic jet as active control device. The second objective of this work is to investigate the influence of momentum coefficient of synthetic jet on the flow behaviour. The unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations of the turbulent flow are solved using, k-ω SST provided by ANSYS CFX-CFD code. The model presented in this paper is a comprehensive representation of the information found in the literature. Comparison of obtained numerical flow parameters with the experimental ones shows that the adopted computational procedure reflects nearly the real flow nature. Also, numerical results state that use of synthetic jets devices has positive effects on the flow separation, and thus, aerodynamic performance improvement of NACA0015 airfoil. It can also be observed that the use of synthetic jet increases the lift coefficient about 13.3% and reduces the drag coefficient about 52.7%.

Keywords: active control, synthetic jet, NACA airfoil, CFD

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