Search results for: the great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

Authors: Islam Abou El-Magd, Elham Ali, Ali Amasha

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Earthquakes strike without warning and cause widespread damage to social and economic infrastructures and creating life losses. These can neither be predicted nor prevented in terms of their magnitude, place, and time of occurrence. It is a global phenomenon that creates nearly 18% of life losses and nearly 35% of economic damage. The coastal zone of Egypt is considered low to medium risk, however, there is a record of high magnitude earthquakes that created Tsunami in the past. The northern coastal zone of Egypt is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that have considerable earthquakes with variable degrees. This research studied the earthquakes in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean Basin in relation to the geotectonic shear zones. 85% of these earthquakes are in the marine that might create Tsunami. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 37% and 36% respectively. However the least one is the Arabia zone with 1%, and Africa is about 26%. The research proposed three scenarios for the socioeconomic hazards, earthquakes with Tsunami that will destroy one fifth of the economic infrastructures with unpredictable life losses. The estimated cost of recovery of such losses is nearly 400B USD. The second scenario is earthquake without Tsunami that will impact the major urban and infrastructures. The last scenario is tidal gauges events that threaten the low-lying areas particularly the eastern side which has major land subsidence.

Keywords: natural hazards, earthquakes, tusnami, Nile delta, Egypt

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Authors: Toake Endoh

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Cross-border migration of people is a critical driver for sustainable economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the region is susceptible to mega-scale natural disasters, such as tsunami, earthquakes, and typhoons. When migrants are stranded in a foreign country by a disaster, who should be responsible for their safety and security? What legal or moral foundation is there to advocate for the protection and assistance of “migrants at risk (M@R)”? How can the states practice “good governance” in their response to displacement of the foreign migrants? This paper inquires how to protect foreign migrants displaced by a natural disaster under international law and proposes protective actions to be taken by of migrant-receiver governments. First, the paper discusses the theoretical foundation for protection of M@R and argues that the nation-states are charged of responsibility to protect at-risk foreigners as “internally displaced persons” in the light of the United Nations’ Guiding Principles of Internal Displacement (1998). Second, through the case study of the Kobe Earthquake in Japan (1995), the Tsunami in Thailand (2004), and the Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. (2005), the paper evaluates how effectively (or poorly) institutions and state actors addressed the specific vulnerability felt by M@R in these crises.

Keywords: internal displaced persons, natural disaster, international migration, responsibility to protect

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Authors: Suphaporn Rattanaphinanchai

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The purpose of this study is to 1) describe and analyze the travel motivations of tourists visiting Phi Phi Islands after the Tsunami in 2004 and 2) to better understand whether there are significant differences in the tourists’ motivations in visiting Phi Phi Island after the Tsunami hit across tourists with different demographic profile. This study used Phi Phi Islands, which was damaged by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as a case study. The instrument used in the present study is a self-administered questionnaire. A survey with 200 questionnaires was collected in May - December, 2015. Descriptive statistics, Independent Sample Mean T-tests, and Analysis of Variances was used to analyze the data. The result of the study showed that beauty of nature, good climate, and relaxing atmosphere motivated tourists in visiting Phi Phi Islands after the tsunami.

Keywords: motivation, Thailand, Thai tourism, Thai beaches

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Authors: Byron Malaela Sotiata Seiuli

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When a disaster strike, the resultant impact and devastation forces many people, particularly those directly affected, to re-examine the core dimensions of life that do not come from other life events. The way people respond to and try give meaning to their experiences resultant from the ruptures of trauma remains vital in grief recovery. On 29 October 2009, an earthquake of 8.3 magnitudes generated a galulolo (tsunami) wave that destroyed parts of American Samoa, Tonga and Samoa (previously Western Samoa). Aside from the physical and natural devastation, many people lost their lives and their livelihood. For health professionals who were called upon to provide psychosocial support, this calamity provided an ideal setting to examine and explore how those directly impacted recovered from the calamity. The experiences of a Samoan couple, Fia and Ola, becomes the key focus of this article, one that situates their mourning patterns and recovery journey in the context of Samoan culture. Examining grief from this perspective creates a cultural space to extend indigenous understanding on the complexities of grieving and customarily responses of Samoan people, like this couple, to disaster recovery.

Keywords: Fa'asamoa, galulolo, tsunami disaster, trauma and grief recovery, pacific psychology

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Authors: Takhul Bakhtiar

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In South Sulawesi Province, there is an active Walanae Fault causing this area to frequently experience earthquakes. This study aims to determine the level of seismicity of the earthquake in order to obtain the potential for earthquakes in the future. The estimation of the potential for earthquakes is then made a scenario model determine the estimated level of shocks as an effort to mitigate earthquake disasters in the region. The method used in this study is the Gutenberg Richter Method through the statistical likelihood approach. This study used earthquake data in the South Sulawesi region in 1972 - 2022. The research location is located at the coordinates of 3.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119.5° – 120.5° East Longitude and divided into two segments, namely the northern segment at the coordinates of 3.5° – 4.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120,5° East Longitude then the southern segment with coordinates of 4.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120.5° East Longitude. This study uses earthquake parameters with a magnitude > 1 and a depth < 50 km. The results of the analysis show that the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 in the northern segment is estimated at 98.81% with an estimated shock level of VI-VII MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng then IV - V MMI in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa. In the southern segment, the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 is estimated at 32.89% with an estimated VI-VII MMI shock level in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa, then III-IV MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng.

Keywords: Gutenberg Richter, likelihood method, seismicity, shakemap and MMI scale

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Authors: Abhishek Mukherjee, Juan C. Cajas, Jenny Suckale, Guillaume Houzeaux, Oriol Lehmkuhl, Simone Marras

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The investigation of tsunami flow characteristics and the quantification of tsunami energy reduction through the coastal vegetation is important to understand the protective benefits of nature-based mitigation parks. In the present study, a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics model with a two-way coupling enabled fluid-structure interaction approach (FSI) is used. After validating the numerical model against experimental data, tsunami flow characteristics have been investigated by varying vegetation density, modulus of elasticity, the gap between stems, and arrangement or distribution of vegetation patches. Streamwise depth average velocity profiles, turbulent kinetic energy, energy flux reflection, and dissipation extracted by the numerical study will be presented in this study. These diagnostics are essential to assess the importance of different parameters to design the proper coastal defense systems. When a tsunami wave reaches the shore, it transforms into undular bores, which induce scour around offshore structures and sediment transport. The bed shear stress, instantaneous turbulent kinetic energy, and the vorticity near-bed will be presented to estimate the importance of vegetation to prevent tsunami-induced scour and sediment transport.

Keywords: coastal defense, energy flux, fluid-structure interaction, natural hazards, sediment transport, tsunami mitigation

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Authors: Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

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Many problems in oceanography and environmental sciences require the solution of shallow water equations on physical domains having curvilinear coastlines and abrupt changes of ocean depth near the shore. Finite-difference technique for the shallow water equations representing the boundary as stair step may give inaccurate results near the coastline where results are of greatest interest for various applications. This suggests the use of methods which are capable of incorporating the irregular boundary in coastal belts. At the same time, large velocity gradient is expected near the beach and islands as water depth vary abruptly near the coast. A nested numerical scheme with fine resolution is the best resort to enhance the numerical accuracy with the least grid numbers for the region of interests where the velocity changes rapidly and which is unnecessary for the away of the region. This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. In this paper, we develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Boundary-fitted nested grid model, Southern Thailand, finite difference method

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Authors: Keiko Shimazu, Yasuhiro Maida, Tetsuya Sugata, Daisuke Tamakoshi, Kenji Makabe, Haruki Suzuki

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In this paper, we report how to acquire serious victims’ locations in the Acute Stage of Large-scale Disasters, in an Emergency Information Network System designed by us. The background of our concept is based on the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11^th, 2011. Through many experiences of national crises caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, we have established advanced communication systems and advanced disaster medical response systems. However, Japan was devastated by huge tsunamis swept a vast area of Tohoku causing a complete breakdown of all the infrastructures including telecommunications. Therefore, we noticed that we need interdisciplinary collaboration between science of disaster medicine, regional administrative sociology, satellite communication technology and systems engineering experts. Communication of emergency information was limited causing a serious delay in the initial rescue and medical operation. For the emergency rescue and medical operations, the most important thing is to identify the number of casualties, their locations and status and to dispatch doctors and rescue workers from multiple organizations. In the case of the Tohoku earthquake, the dispatching mechanism and/or decision support system did not exist to allocate the appropriate number of doctors and locate disaster victims. Even though the doctors and rescue workers from multiple government organizations have their own dedicated communication system, the systems are not interoperable.

Keywords: crisis management, disaster mitigation, messing, MGRS, military grid reference system, satellite communication system

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Authors: Zakiul Fuady, Michaela Spiske

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Inundation events, such as storms and tsunamis can leave onshore sedimentary evidence like sand deposits or large boulders. These deposits store indirect information on the related inundation parameters (e.g., flow velocity, flow depth, wave height). One tool to reveal these parameters are inverse models that use the physical characteristics of the deposits to refer to the magnitude of inundation. This study used boulders of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami from Thailand (Pakarang Cape) and form a historical tsunami event that inundated the outer British Virgin Islands (Anegada). For the largest boulder found in Pakarang Cape with a volume of 26.48 m³ the required tsunami wave height is 0.44 m and storm wave height are 1.75 m (for a bulk density of 1.74 g/cm³. In Pakarang Cape the highest tsunami wave height is 0.45 m and storm wave height are 1.8 m for transporting a 20.07 m³ boulder. On Anegada, the largest boulder with a diameter of 2.7 m is the asingle coral head (species Diploria sp.) with a bulk density of 1.61 g/cm³, and requires a minimum tsunami wave height of 0.31 m and storm wave height of 1.25 m. The highest required tsunami wave height on Anegada is 2.12 m for a boulder with a bulk density of 2.46 g/cm³ (volume 0.0819 m³) and the highest storm wave height is 5.48 m (volume 0.216 m³) from the same bulk density and the coral type is limestone. Generally, the higher the bulk density, volume, and weight of the boulders, the higher the minimum tsunami and storm wave heights required to initiate transport. It requires 4.05 m/s flow velocity by Nott’s equation (2003) and 3.57 m/s by Nandasena et al. (2011) to transport the largest boulder in Pakarang Cape, whereas on Anegada, it requires 3.41 m/s to transport a boulder with diameter 2.7 m for both equations. Thus, boulder equations need to be handled with caution because they make many assumptions and simplifications. Second, the physical boulder parameters, such as density and volume need to be determined carefully to minimize any errors.

Keywords: tsunami wave height, storm wave height, flow velocity, boulders, Anegada, Pakarang Cape

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: Mehmet Akköse

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In ground motions recorded in recent major earthquakes such as 1994 Northridge earthquake in US, 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, and 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey, it is noticed that they have large velocity pulses. The ground motions with the velocity pulses recorded in the vicinity of an earthquake fault are quite different from the usual far-fault earthquake ground motions. The velocity pulse duration in the near-fault ground motions is larger than 1.0 sec. In addition, the ratio of the peak ground velocity (PGV) to the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the near-fault ground motions is larger than 0.1 sec. The ground motions having these characteristics expose the structure to high input energy in the beginning of the earthquake and cause large structural responses. Therefore, structural response to near-fault ground motions has received much attention in recent years. Interactions between neighboring, inadequately separated buildings have been repeatedly observed during earthquakes. This phenomenon often referred to as earthquake-induced structural pounding, may result in substantial damage or even total destruction of colliding structures during strong ground motions. This study focuses on effects of near-fault ground motions on earthquake-induced pounding response of RC buildings. The program SAP2000 is employed in the response calculations. The results obtained from the pounding analyses for near-fault and far-fault ground motions are compared with each other.

Keywords: near-fault ground motion, pounding analysis, RC buildings, SAP2000

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Authors: Sarada Nivedita Bhuyan

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Earthquake is the sudden, rapid movement of the earth’s crust and is the natural means of releasing stress. Tectonic plates play a major role for earthquakes as tectonic plates are the crust of the planet. The boundary lines of tectonic plates are usually known as fault lines. To understand an earthquake before its occurrence, different types of earthquake precursors are studied by different researchers. Surface temperature, strange cloud cover, earth’s electric field, geomagnetic phenomena, ground water level, active faults, ionospheric anomalies, tectonic movements are taken as parameters for earthquake study by different researchers. In this paper we tried to gather complete and helpful information of earthquake precursors which have been studied until now.

Keywords: earthquake precursors, earthquake, tectonic plates, fault

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank Desai

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In the last few years, it has been observed that earthquake is proving a threat to the scientist across the world. With a large number of earthquakes occurring in day to day life, the threat to life and property has increased manifolds which call for an urgent attention of all the researchers globally to carry out the research in the field of Earthquake Engineering. Any hazard related to the earthquake and seismicity is considered to be seismic hazards. The common forms of seismic hazards are Ground Shaking, Structure Damage, Structural Hazards, Liquefaction, Landslides, Tsunami to name a few. Among all the natural hazards, the most devastating and damaging is the earthquake as all other hazards are triggered only after the occurrence of an earthquake. In order to quantify and estimate the seismicity and seismic hazards, many methods and approaches have been proposed in the past few years. Such approaches are Mathematical, Conventional and Computational. Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function are some of the Mathematical Approaches whereas the Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches are the Conventional Approach for the estimation of the seismic Hazards. Ground response and Ground Shaking of a particular area or region plays an important role in the damage caused due to the earthquake. In this paper, seismic study using Deterministic Approach and 1 D Ground Response Analysis has been carried out for Madhya Pradesh Tourism Office in Indore Region in Madhya Pradesh in Central India. Indore lies in the seismic zone III (IS: 1893, 2002) in the Seismic Zoning map of India. There are various faults and lineament in this area and Narmada Some Fault and Gavilgadh fault are the active sources of earthquake in the study area. Deepsoil v6.1.7 has been used to perform the 1 D Linear Ground Response Analysis for the study area. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of the city ranges from 0.1g to 0.56g.

Keywords: seismicity, seismic hazards, deterministic, probabilistic methods, ground response analysis

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Authors: Aldilla Damayanti Purnama Ratri, Hendri Subakti, Buldan Muslim

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Ionosphere’s anomalies as an effect of earthquake activity is a phenomenon that is now being studied in seismo-ionospheric coupling. Generally, variation in the ionosphere caused by earthquake activity is weaker than the interference generated by different source, such as geomagnetic storms. However, disturbances of geomagnetic storms show a more global behavior, while the seismo-ionospheric anomalies occur only locally in the area which is largely determined by magnitude of the earthquake. It show that the earthquake activity is unique and because of its uniqueness it has been much research done thus expected to give clues as early warning before earthquake. One of the research that has been developed at this time is the approach of seismo-ionospheric-coupling. This study related the state in the lithosphere-atmosphere and ionosphere before and when earthquake occur. This paper choose the total electron content in a vertical (VTEC) in the ionosphere as a parameter. Total Electron Content (TEC) is defined as the amount of electron in vertical column (cylinder) with cross-section of 1m2 along GPS signal trajectory in ionosphere at around 350 km of height. Based on the analysis of data obtained from the LAPAN agency to identify abnormal signals by statistical methods, obtained that there are an anomaly in the ionosphere is characterized by decreasing of electron content of the ionosphere at 1 TECU before the earthquake occurred. Decreasing of VTEC is not associated with magnetic storm that is indicated as an earthquake precursor. This is supported by the Dst index showed no magnetic interference.

Keywords: earthquake, DST Index, ionosphere, seismoionospheric coupling, VTEC

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Authors: Sayed Abdallah Mohamed Dahy

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Northeastern part of Egypt is considered one of the few regions of the world whereas evidence of historical activities has been documented during the last 48 centuries or more. Instrumental, historical and pre-historical seismicity data indicate that large destructive earthquakes have occurred quite frequently in the investigated area. The main aims in the present study were to redraw attention to the fact that the northeastern part of Egypt is seismically active and this result is associated with earthquake risk in the region. The interaction of the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and Sinai subplate, is the main factor behind the earthquake activities of northeastern part of Egypt. All earthquakes occur at shallow depth and are concentrated at four seismic zones, these zones including the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, around the entrance of the Gulf of Suez and the fourth one is located at the south-west of great Cairo (Dahshour area). The seismicity map of the previous zones shows that the activity is coincide with the major tectonic trends of the Suez rift, Aqaba rift with their connection with the great rift system of the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez-Cairo-Alexandria trend.

Keywords: earthquake ectivities, Egypt, northeastern, tectonic setting

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Authors: Fitri Nugraheni, Adwitya Bhaskara, N. Faried Hanafi

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Coastal is one area that can be a place to live. Various buildings can be built in the area around the beach. Many Indonesians use beaches as housing and work, but we know that coastal areas are identical to tsunami and wind. Costs incurred due to permanent damage caused by tsunamis and wind disasters in Indonesia can be minimized by replacing permanent buildings into semi-permanent buildings. Semi-permanent buildings can be realized by using cold-formed steel as a building. Thus, the purpose of this research is to provide efficient semi-permanent building recommendations for residents around the coast. The research is done by first designing the building model by using sketch-up software, then the validation phase is done in consultation with the expert consultant of cold form steel structure. Based on the results of the interview there are several revisions on several sides of the building by adding some bracing rods on the roof, walls and floor frame. The result of this research is recommendation of semi-permanent building model, where the nature of the building; easy to disassemble and install (knockdown), tsunami-friendly (continue the tsunami load), cost and time efficient (using cold-formed-steel and prefabricated GRC), zero waste, does not require many workers (less labor). The recommended building design concept also keeps the architecture side in mind thus it remains a comfortable occupancy for the residents.

Keywords: construction method, cold-formed steel, efficiency, semi-permanent building, tsunami

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Authors: Csaba Barnabas Horvath

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The Belt and Road initiative of China is one that can change the face of Eurasia as we know it. Instead of four major, densely populated subcontinents defined by Mackinder (East Asia, Europe, the Indian Subcontinent, and the Middle East) isolated from each other by vast, sparsely populated and underdeveloped regions, it can at last start to function as a geographic whole, with a sophisticated infrastructure linking its different parts to each other. This initiative, however, happens not in a geopolitical vacuum, but in a space of conflicting great power interests. In Central Asia, the influence of China and Russia are in a setting of competition, where despite the cooperation between the two powers to a great degree, issues causing mutual mistrust emerge repeatedly. In Afghanistan, besides western military presence, even India’s efforts can be added to the picture. In Southeast Asia, a key region regarding the maritime Silk Road, India’s Act East policy meets with China’s Belt and Road, not always in consensus, not to mention US and Japanese interests in the region. The presentation aims to take an overview on how conflicting great power interests are likely to influence the outcome of the Belt and Road initiative. The findings show, that overall success of the Belt and Road Initiative may not be as smooth, as hoped by China, but at the same time, in a limited number of strategically important countries (such as Pakistan, Laos, and Cambodia), this setting is actually a factor favoring China, providing at least a selected number of reliable corridors, where the initiative is actually likely to be successful.

Keywords: belt and road initiative, geostrategic corridors, geopolitics, great power rivalry

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Authors: Hussain Jiffry, Kypros Pilakoutas, Reyes Garcia Lopez

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This study examines the effect of tsunami loads on reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings analytically. The impact of tsunami wave loads and waterborne objects are analyzed using a typical substandard full-scale two-story RC frame building tested as part of the EU-funded Ecoleader project. The building was subjected to shake table tests in bare condition and subsequently strengthened using Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites and retested. Numerical models of the building in both bare and CFRP-strengthened conditions are calibrated in DRAIN-3DX software to match the test results. To investigate the response of wave loads and impact forces, the numerical models are subjected to nonlinear dynamic analyses using force-time history input records. The analytical results are compared in terms of displacements at the floors and the 'impact point' of a boat. The results show that the roof displacement of the CFRP-strengthened building reduced by 63% when compared to the bare building. The results also indicate that strengthening only the mid-height of the impact column using CFRP is more efficient at reducing damage when compared to strengthening other parts of the column. Alternative solutions to mitigate damage due to tsunami loads are suggested.

Keywords: tsunami loads, hydrodynamic load, impact load, waterborne objects, RC buildings

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Authors: Woo Young Jung, Sung Min Park, Ho Young Son, Viriyavudh Sim

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This study presents a way to reduce earthquake damage and emergency rehabilitation of critical structures such as schools, high-tech factories, and hospitals due to strong ground motions associated with climate changes. Regarding recent trend, a strong earthquake causes serious damage to critical structures and then the critical structure might be influenced by sequence aftershocks (or tsunami) due to fault plane adjustments. Therefore, in order to improve seismic performance of critical structures, retrofitted or strengthening study of the structures under aftershocks sequence after emergency rehabilitation of the structures subjected to strong earthquakes is widely carried out. Consequently, this study used composite material for emergency rehabilitation of the structure rather than concrete and steel materials because of high strength and stiffness, lightweight, rapid manufacturing, and dynamic performance. Also, this study was to develop or improve the seismic performance or seismic retrofit of critical structures subjected to strong ground motions and earthquake aftershocks, by utilizing GFRP-Corrugated Infill Panels (GCIP).

Keywords: aftershock, composite material, GFRP, infill panel

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Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, A. N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno

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Molluca Collision Zone is located at the junction of the Eurasian plate, Australian, Pacific, and the Philippines. Between the Sangihe arc, west of the collision zone, and to the east of Halmahera arc is active collision and convex toward the Molluca Sea. This research will analyze the behavior of earthquake occurrence in Molluca Collision Zone related to the distributions of an earthquake in each partition regions, determining the type of distribution of a occurrence earthquake of partition regions, and the mean occurrence of earthquakes each partition regions, and the correlation between the partitions region. We calculate number of earthquakes using partition method and its behavioral using conventional statistical methods. The data used is the data type of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 4 SR for the period 1964-2013 in the Molluca Collision Zone. From the results, we can classify partitioned regions based on the correlation into two classes: strong and very strong. This classification can be used for early warning system in disaster management.

Keywords: molluca collision zone, partition regions, conventional statistical methods, earthquakes, classifications, disaster management

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Authors: Arash Sharghi, Irina Dotu

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The developments in the Middle East region have activated the involvement of a numerous diverse state and non-state actors in the regional affairs. The goals, positions, ideologies, different, and even contrast policy behaviors had procured the spreading and continuity of crisis. Non-state actors varying from Islamic organizations to takfiri-terrorist movements on one hand and regional and trans- regional actors, from another side, seek to reach their interests in the power struggle. Here, a research worthy question comes on the agenda: taking into consideration actors’ contradictory interests and constraints what are the regional peace and stability perspectives? Therein, different actors’ aims definition, their actions and behaviors, which affect instability, can be regarded as independent variables; whereas, on the contrary, Middle East peace and stability perspective analysis is a dependent variable. Though, this regional peace and war theory based research admits the significant influence of trans-regional actors, it asserts the roots of violence to derive from region itself. Consequently, hot war and conflict prevention and hot peace assurance in the Middle East region cannot be attained only by demands and approaches of trans-regional actors. Moreover, capacity of trans-regional actors is sufficient only for a cold war or cold peace to be reached in the region. Furthermore, within the framework of current conflict (struggle) between regional actors it seems to be difficult and even impossible to turn the cold war into a cold peace in the region.

Keywords: cold peace, cold war, hot war, Middle East, non-state actors, regional and Great powers, war theory

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Authors: S. M. Amin Hosseini, Oriol Pons, Carmen Mendoza Arroyo, Albert de la Fuente

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In the aftermath of a natural disaster, the major challenge most cities and societies face, regardless of their diverse level of prosperity, is to provide temporary housing (TH) for the displaced population (DP). However, the features of TH, which have been applied in previous recovery programs, greatly varied from case to case. This situation demonstrates that providing temporary accommodation for DP in a short period time and usually in great numbers is complicated in terms of satisfying all the beneficiaries’ needs, regardless of the societies’ welfare levels. Furthermore, when previously used strategies are applied to different areas, the chosen strategies are most likely destined to fail, unless the strategies are context and culturally based. Therefore, as the population of disaster-prone cities are increasing, decision-makers need a platform to help to determine all the factors, which caused the outcomes of the prior programs. To this end, this paper aims to assess the problems, requirements, limitations, potential responses, chosen strategies, and their outcomes, in order to determine the main elements that have influenced the TH process. In this regard, and in order to determine a customizable strategy, this study analyses the TH programs of five different cases as: Marmara earthquake, 1999; Bam earthquake, 2003; Aceh earthquake and tsunami, 2004; Hurricane Katrina, 2005; and, L’Aquila earthquake, 2009. The research results demonstrate that the main vertexes of TH are: (1) local characteristics, including local potential and affected population features, (2) TH properties, which needs to be considered in four phases: planning, provision/construction, operation, and second life, and (3) natural hazards impacts, which embraces intensity and type. Accordingly, this study offers decision-makers the opportunity to discover the main vertexes, their subsets, interactions, and the relation between strategies and outcomes based on the local conditions of each case. Consequently, authorities may acquire the capability to design a customizable method in the face of complicated post-disaster housing in the wake of future natural disasters.

Keywords: post-disaster temporary accommodation, urban resilience, natural disaster, local characteristic

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Authors: Eylem Güzel, Soner Guler, Mustafa Gulen

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Van province which has a very rich historical heritage is located in eastern part of Turkey, between Lake Van and the Iranian border. Many civilizations prevailing in Van until today have built up many historical structures such as castles, mosques, churches, bridges, baths, etc. In 2011, a devastating earthquake with magnitude 7.2 Mw, epicenter in Tabanlı Village, occurred in Van, where a large part of the city locates in the first-degree earthquake zone. As a result of this earthquake, 644 people were killed; a lot of reinforced, unreinforced and historical structures were badly damaged. Many historical structures damaged due to this earthquake have been restored. In this study, the damages observed in Seven churches (Yedi Kilise) after 2011 Van earthquake is evaluated with regard to architecture and civil engineering perspective.

Keywords: earthquake, historical structures, Van province, church

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Authors: Agustin Maciel-Padilla

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This paper explores the most significant change to Japan’s security strategy since the end of World War II, in particular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government publication, in late 2022, of 3 policy documents (the National Security Strategy [NSS], the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program) that basically propose to expand the country’s military capabilities and to increase military spending over a 5-year period. These policies represent a remarkable transformation of Japan’s defense-oriented policy followed since 1946. These proposals have been under analysis and debate since they were announced, as it was also Japan’s historic ambition to strengthening its deterrence capabilities in the context of a more complex regional security environment. Even though this new defense posture has attracted significant international attention, it is far from representing a done deal because of the fact that there is still a long way to go to implement this vision because of a wide variety of political and economic issues. Japan is currently experiencing the most dangerous security environment since the end of World War II, and this situation led Japan to intensify its dialogue with the United States to reflect a re-evaluation of deterrence in the face of a rapidly worsening security environment, a changing balance of power in East Asia, and the arrival of a new era of “great power competition”. Japan’s new documents, for instance, identify China and North Korea’s as posing, respectively, a strategic challenge and an imminent threat. Japan has also noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed to erode the foundation of the international order. It is considered that Russia’s aggression was possible because Ukraine’s defense capability was not enough for effective deterrence. Moreover, Japan’s call for “counterstrike capabilities” results from a recognition that China and North Korea’s ballistic and cruise missiles could overwhelm Japan’s air and missile defense systems, and therefore there is an urgent need to strengthen deterrence and resilience. In this context, this paper will focus on the impact of these changes on the US-Japan alliance. Adapting this alliance to Tokyo’s new ambitions and capabilities could be critical in terms of updating their traditional protection/access to bases arrangement, interoperability and joint command and control issues, as well as regarding the security–economy nexus. While China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and trade between the two has been growing, US-Japan economic relationship has been slower, notwithstanding the fact that US-Japan security cooperation has strengthened significantly in recent years.

Keywords: us-japan alliance, japan security, great power competition, interoperability

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Authors: Naser Charkhsaz, Ashraf Sadat Mousavi, Navvab Shamspour

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This study aimed to evaluate the role of state education in increasing public awareness through mass media (with emphasis on newspapers and TV) coping with possible earthquake in Tehran. All residents aged 15 to 65 who live in the five regions of Tehran (North, South, East, West and Center) during the plan implementation were selected and studied. The required sample size in each region was calculated based on the Cochran formula (n=380). In order to collect and analyze the data, a questionnaire with reliability (82%) and a one-sample t-test has been used, respectively. The results showed that warnings related to the Tehran earthquake affected people in the pre-contemplation stage, while public education through mass media did not promote public awareness about prevention, preparedness and rehabilitation.

Keywords: media, disaster, knowledge, Iranian Red Crescent society

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Authors: Aurore Cauquis, Philippe Heinrich, Mario Ricchiuto, Audrey Gailler

Abstract:

In this talk, we look for an accurate time scheme to model the propagation of waves. Several numerical schemes have been developed to solve the extended weakly nonlinear weakly dispersive Boussinesq Equations. The temporal schemes used are two Lax-Wendroff schemes, second or third order accurate, two Runge-Kutta schemes of second and third order and a simplified third order accurate Lax-Wendroff scheme. Spatial derivatives are evaluated with fourth order accuracy. The numerical model is applied to two monodimensional benchmarks on a flat bottom. It is also applied to the simulation of the Algerian tsunami generated by a Mw=6 seism on the 18th March 2021. The tsunami propagation was highly dispersive and propagated across the Mediterranean Sea. We study here the effects of the order of temporal discretization on the accuracy of the results and on the time of computation.

Keywords: numerical analysis, tsunami propagation, water wave, boussinesq equations

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Authors: Naoki Okamura

Abstract:

From a perspective of moral education, this study has examined the experiences of a group of college students who volunteered in disaster areas after the magnitude 9.0 Earthquake, which struck the Northeastern region of Japan in March, 2011. The research, utilizing the method of grounded theory, has uncovered that most of the students have gone through positive changes in their development of moral and social characters, such as attaining deeper sense of empathy and caring personalities. The study expresses, in identifying the nature of those transformations, that the importance of volunteer work should strongly be recognized by the colleges and universities in Japan, in fulfilling their public responsibility of creating and building learning communities that are responsible and caring.

Keywords: moral development, moral education, service learning, volunteer learning

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Authors: Christian Klettner, Ian Eames, Tristan Robinson

Abstract:

Tsunami is characterised by their very long time periods and can have devastating consequences when these inundate through built-up coastal regions as in the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. This work aims to investigate the effect of these long waves on the flow through and around a group of buildings, which are abstracted to circular cylinders. The research approach used in this study was using experiments and numerical simulations. Large-scale experiments were carried out at HR Wallingford. The novelty of these experiments is (I) the number of bodies present (up to 64), (II) the long wavelength of the input waves (80 seconds) and (III) the width of the tank (4m) which gives the unique opportunity to investigate three length scales, namely the diameter of the building, the diameter of the array and the width of the tank. To complement the experiments, dam break flow past the same arrays is investigated using three-dimensional numerical simulations in OpenFOAM. Dam break flow was chosen as it is often used as a surrogate for the tsunami in previous research and is used here as there are well defined initial conditions and high quality previous experimental data for the case of a single cylinder is available. The focus of this work is to better understand the effect of the solid void fraction on the force and flow through and around the array. New qualitative and quantitative diagnostics are developed and tested to analyse the complex coupled interaction between the cylinders.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, tsunami, forces, complex geometry

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Authors: Ming Lu, Xiaojun Li, Bodi Lu, Juehui Xing

Abstract:

Earthquake damage phenomenon of each large earthquake gives comprehensive and profound real test to the dynamic performance and failure mechanism of different engineering structures. Cognitive engineering structure characteristics through seismic damage phenomenon are often far superior to expensive shaking table experiments. After the earthquake, people will record a variety of different types of engineering damage photos. However, a large number of earthquake damage photographs lack sufficient information and reduce their using value. To improve the research value and the use efficiency of engineering seismic damage photographs, this paper objects to explore and show seismic damage background information, which includes the earthquake magnitude, earthquake intensity, and the damaged structure characteristics. From the research requirement in earthquake engineering field, the authors use the 2008 China Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake photographs, and provide four kinds of attribute indexes and classification, which are seismic information, structure types, earthquake damage parts and disaster causation factors. The final object is to set up an engineering structural seismic damage database based on these four attribute indicators and classification, and eventually build a website providing seismic damage photographs.

Keywords: attribute index, classification method, earthquake damage picture, engineering structure

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Authors: Diego Diaz H., Cristian Larroulet

Abstract:

Although a large earthquake has clear and immediate consequences such as deaths, destruction of infrastructure and displacement (at least temporary) of part of the population, scientific research about the impact of a geological disaster in economic activity is inconclusive, especially when looking beyond the very short term. Estimating the economic impact years after a disaster strike is non-trivial since there is an unavoidable difficulty in attributing the observed effect to the disaster and not to other economic shocks. Case studies are performed that determine the impact of earthquakes in Chile, Japan, and New Zealand at a regional level by applying the synthetic control method, using the natural disaster as treatment. This consisted in constructing a counterfactual from every region in the same country that is not affected (or is slightly affected) by the earthquake. The results show that the economies of Canterbury and Tohoku achieved greater levels of GDP per capita in the years after the disaster than they would have in the absence of the disaster. For the case of Chile, however, the region of Maule experiences a decline in GDP per capita because of the earthquake. All the results are robust according to the placebo tests. Also, the results suggest that national institutional quality improve the growth process after the disaster.

Keywords: earthquake, economic growth, institutional quality, synthetic control

Procedia PDF Downloads 193