Search results for: stock analysis

Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

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This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Gender plays a vital role in the stock markets because men and women differ in their behavior when investing in stocks. Accordingly, the role of gender differences in investment behavior is an increasingly important strand in the field of behavioral finance research. The investment behaviors of women relative to men have been examined in the behavioral finance literature, mainly for comparison purposes. Women's roles in the stock market have not been examined in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly with respect to the Arab region. This study aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the investment behavior of Arab women (in regards to their risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) relative to Arab men; using a sample from Arab women and men investors living in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In order to achieve the study's main aim, the researcher used non-parametric tests, as Mann-Whitney U test, along with frequency distribution analysis to analyze the study’s primary data. The researcher distributed close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of 550 Arab male and female individuals investing in stocks in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The results confirm that the sample Arab women invest less in stocks compared to Arab men due to their risk-averse behaviors and limited confidence levels. The results also reveal that due to Arab women’s very low investment literacy levels, they fear from taking the risk and invest often in stocks relative to Arab men. Overall, the study’s main variables (risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) have a combined effect on the investment behavior of Arab women and their limited participation in the stock market. Hence, this study is one of the very first studies that indicate the combined effect of the three main variables (which are usually studied separately in the existing literature) on the investment behavior of women, particularly Arab women. This study makes three important contributions to the growing literature on gender differences in investment behavior. First, while the behavioral finance literature documents evidence on gender differences in investment behaviors in many developed countries, there are very limited studies that investigate such differences in Arab countries. Arab women investors, generally, are ignored from the behavioral finance literature due probably to cultural barriers and data collection difficulties. Thus, this study extends the literature to include Arab women and their investment behaviors when trading stock relative to Arab men. Moreover, the study associates women investment literacy and confidence levels with their financial risk behaviors and participation in the stock market. This study provides direct evidence on Arab women's investment behaviors when trading stocks. Overall, studying Arab women investors is important to investigate whether the investment behavior identified for Western women investors are also found in Arab women investors.

Keywords: Arab women, gender differences, investment behavior, stock markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

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Authors: Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir

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This research investigates dividends smoothing among non-financial companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in an era of unclaimed dividends from 2004 to 2013. There has been a raging controversy among Regulatory Authorities, Company Executives, Registrars of Companies, Shareholders and the general public regarding the increasing incidence of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to find out if corporate earnings management through dividends smoothing is implicated in unclaimed dividends among Nigerian non-financial firms. The research used panel data and employed Generalized Method of Moment as method of analysis. The research finds evidence of dividends-smoothing in this era of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The research concludes that dividends-smoothing is a trigger and red flag for unclaimed dividends, an output of earnings management. If earnings management and hence unclaimed dividends in Nigeria is allowed to continue, it will lead to great consequences to the investors and corporate policy of government. It is believed that the research will assist investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Nigeria.

Keywords: dividends smoothing, non financial companies, Nigerian stock exchange, unclaimed dividends, corporate earnings management

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Authors: Asif Iqbal

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Working capital management has its effect on liquidity as well as on profitability of a firm. In this research we have selected a sample of 100 respondents whose firms are listed on Karachi stock exchange. We have studied the effect of different variable s of working capital management. We find that organizations throughout the world as well as in Pakistan have to give immense recognition to the working capital management as it is an effective thing from their long term perspective especially to their shareholders to have a firm confidence over the companies for investment purpose.

Keywords: working capital management, Karachi stock exchange, shareholders, capital management

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Authors: I. R. Keke, C. S. Nwigwe, O. S. Nwanjo, A. S. Egeruoh

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An experiment was carried out at Urban Farm and Fisheries Nigeria Ltd, Owerri Imo State South East Nigeria between February and June 2014 to induce Brood stock of Heterobranchus longifilis (mean wt 1.3kg) in concrete tanks (1.0 x 2.0 x 1.5m) in dimension using a synthetic hormone (Ovaprim) and pituitary extract from Heterobranchus longifilis. Brood stock males were selected as pituitary donors and their weights matched those of females to be injected at 1ml/kg body weight of Fish. Ovaprim, was injected at 0.5ml/kg body weight of female fish. A latency period of 12 hours was allowed after injection of the Brood stock females before stripping the egg and incubation at 23 °C. While incubating the eggs, samples were drawn and the rate of fertilization was determined. Hatching occurred within 33 hours and hatchability rate (%) was determined by counting the active hatchings. The result showed that Ovaprim injected Brood stock eggs fertilized up to 80% while the pituitary from the Heterobranchus longifilis had low fertilization and hatching success 20%. Ovaprim is imported and costly, so more effort is required to enhance the procedures for homoplastic hypophysation.

Keywords: heterobranchus longifilis, ovaprim, hypophysation, latency period, pituitary

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Authors: Seyedmohsen Mortazavi

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The purpose of this research is to investigate the personality types of internal auditors on the quality of financial reporting in companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Personality type is one of the issues that emphasizes the field of auditors' behavior, and this field has attracted the attention of shareholders and stock companies today, because the auditors' personality can affect the type of financial reporting and its quality. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and correlational in terms of method, and a researcher-made questionnaire was used to check the research hypotheses. The statistical population of the research is all the auditors, accountants and financial managers of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, and due to their large number and the uncertainty of their exact number, 384 people have been considered as a statistical sample using Morgan's table. The researcher-made questionnaire was approved by experts in the field, and then its validity and reliability were obtained using software. For the validity of the questionnaire, confirmatory factor analysis was first examined, and then using divergent and convergent validity; Fornell-Larker and cross-sectional load test of the validity of the questionnaire were confirmed; Then, the reliability of the questionnaire was examined using Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability, and the results of these two tests showed the appropriate reliability of the questionnaire. After checking the validity and reliability of the research hypotheses, PLS software was used to check the hypotheses. The results of the research showed that the personalities of internal auditors can affect the quality of financial reporting; The personalities investigated in this research include neuroticism, extroversion, flexibility, agreeableness and conscientiousness, all of these personality types can affect the quality of financial reporting.

Keywords: flexibility, quality of financial reporting, agreeableness, conscientiousness

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Authors: Najlae Bendou, Jean-Jacques Lilti, Khalid Elbadraoui

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In this paper, we examine stock market integration of emerging markets around the global financial turmoil of 2007-2008. Following Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009), we measure the integration of 46 emerging countries using the adjusted R-square from the regression of each country's daily index returns on global factors extracted from the covariance matrix computed using dollar-denominated daily index returns of 17 developed countries. Our sample surrounds the global financial crisis and ranges between 2000 and 2018. We analyze results using four cohorts of emerging countries: East Asia & Pacific and South Asia, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & Africa. We find that the level of integration of emerging countries increases at the commencement of the crisis and during the booming phase of the business cycles. It reaches a maximum point in the middle of the crisis and then tends to revert to its pre-crisis level. This pattern tends to be common among the four geographic zones investigated in this study. Finally, we investigate the determinants of stock market integration of emerging countries in our sample using panel regressions. Our results suggest that the degree of stock market integration of these countries should be put into perspective by some macro-economic factors, such as the size of the equity market, school enrollment rate, international liquidity level, stocks traded volume, tax revenue level, imports and exports volumes.

Keywords: correlations, determinants of integration, diversification, emerging markets, financial crisis, integration, markets co-movement, panel regressions, r-square, stock markets

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Taisier A. Zoubi, Feras Salama, Mahmud Hossain, Yass A. Alkafaji

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The purpose of this study is to examine the equity pricing of other comprehensive income when earnings are disaggregated into several components. Our findings indicate that other comprehensive income can better explain variation in stock returns when net income is reported in a disaggregated form. Additionally, we found that disaggregating both net income and other comprehensive income can explain more of the variation in the stock returns than the two summary components of comprehensive income. Our results survive a series of robustness checks.

Keywords: market valuation, other comprehensive income, value-relevance, incremental information content

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Authors: Xiangrong Liu, Chuanhui Xiong

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With the concern of large pollution emissions from coal-fired power plants and new commitment to green energy, global solar power industry was emerging recently. Due to the advanced technology, the price of solar photovoltaic(PV) module was reduced at a fast rate, which arose an interesting but challenge question to solar supply chain. This research is modeling the inventory strategies for a PV supply chain with a PV manufacturer, an assembler and an end customer. Through characterizing the manufacturer's and PV assembler's optimal decision in decentralized and centralized situation, this study shed light on how to improve supply chain performance through parameters setting in the contract design. The results suggest the assembler to lower the optimal stock level gradually each period before price reduction and set up a newsvendor base-stock policy in all periods after price reduction. As to the PV module manufacturer, a non-stationary produce-up-to policy is optimal.

Keywords: photovoltaic, supply chain, inventory policy, base-stock policy

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Authors: Tarik Bazgour, Cedric Heuchenne, Danielle Sougne

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We examine time variation in the market beta of portfolios sorted on quality, liquidity level and liquidity beta characteristics across stock market phases. Using US stock market data for the period 1970-2010, we find, first, the US stock market was driven by four regimes. Second, during the crisis regime, low (high) quality, high (low) liquidity beta and illiquid (liquid) stocks exhibit an increase (a decrease) in their market betas. This finding is consistent with the flight-to-quality and liquidity phenomena. Third, we document the same pattern across stocks when the market volatility is low. We argue that, during low volatility times, investors shift their portfolios towards low quality and illiquid stocks to seek portfolio gains. The pattern observed in the tranquil regime can be, therefore, explained by a flight-to-low-quality and to illiquidity. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level is more important than liquidity beta during the crisis regime.

Keywords: financial crises, quality, liquidity, liquidity risk, regime-switching models

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Authors: Nguyen Ngoc Que Tran

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between internal market orientation, external market orientation, employee commitment and job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach: This study collected data through a survey and utilized simple linear regression and multiple regression analysis to determine if there was any support for the research hypotheses as presented in the previous chapter. Findings: Using data from 256 employees of four leading joint stock banks in Vietnam, the empirical results indicates that employee commitment is positively related with external market orientation, job satisfaction is positively related to employee commitment, and employee commitment and job satisfaction are positively related to external market orientation. However, job satisfaction has no significant positive effect on external market orientation. Theoretical contribution: The primary contribution to marketing theory arising from this study is the integration of job satisfaction, employee commitment, and external market orientation in a single research model. Practical implications: The major contribution to practice is an external market oriented bank has to respond rapidly to the future needs and preferences of its customers. This could result in high levels of commitment to the service process and in doing so provide Vietnamese joint-stock commercial banks with a competitive advantage. The finding is important for the banking service sector in general and the Vietnamese banking industry in particular.

Keywords: employee commitment, job satisfaction and external market orientation, vietnam, bank

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Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

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The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

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Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo, Yung-Hsin Lee

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Previous studies applying residual income valuation (RIV) model generally use panel data and single-equation model to forecast stock prices. Unlike these, this paper uses Taiwan longitudinal data to estimate multi-equation time-series models such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and conduct out-of-sample forecasting. Further, this work assesses their forecasting performance by two instruments. In favor of extant research, the major finding shows that VECM outperforms other three models in forecasting for three stock sectors over entire horizons. It implies that an error correction term containing long-run information contributes to improve forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the pattern of composite shows that at longer horizon, VECM produces the greater reduction in errors, and performs substantially better than VAR.

Keywords: residual income valuation model, vector error correction model, out of sample forecasting, forecasting accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Fereshteh Darash

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Reflective tax management corresponds to the Agency Theory since it determines the motivation of managers for tax management actions and short-term and long-term consequences. Therefore, selection of tax strategy contributes to the tax and financial position of the firm in the future. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the effect of tax management components on risk-taking of firms listed in Tehran stock exchange by using regression analysis method. Results show that tax effective rate, tax risk and tax planning have no significant effect on the firm's future risk. Results suggest that stakeholders assess the effective tax rate and delay in tax payment in line with their benefits. They tend to accept the higher risk cost for reduction of tax payments and benefits of higher liquidity in current period. Hence, effective tax rate and tax risk have no significant effect on future risk of the firm. Moreover, tax planning yields no information regarding the predictability of the future profits and as a result, it has no significant effect on the future risk of the firm since specific goals of financial reporting are in priority for the stakeholders and regardless of the firm’s data analysis, they take investment decisions and they less intend to purchase the stocks in a rational manner.

Keywords: tax management, tax effective rate, tax risk, tax planning, firm risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Ali Akber Jaffri, Asad Naseem, Javeria Khan

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The purpose of this study is to determine safety stock, maximum inventory level, reordering point, and reordering quantity by rearranging lot sizes for supplier and customer in MRO (maintenance repair operations) warehouse of Engro Polymers & Chemicals. To achieve the aim, physical analysis method and excel commands were carried out to elicit the customer and supplier data provided by the company. Initially, we rearranged the current lot sizes and MOUs (measure of units) in SAP software. Due to change in lot sizes we have to determine the new quantities for safety stock, maximum inventory, reordering point and reordering quantity as per company's demand. By proposed system, we saved extra cost in terms of reducing the time of receiving from vendor and in issuance to customer, ease of material handling in MRO warehouse and also reduce human efforts. The information requirements identified in this study can be utilized in calculating Economic Order Quantity.

Keywords: carrying cost, economic order quantity, fast moving, lead time, lot size, MRO, maximum inventory, ordering cost, physical inspection, reorder point

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Yih-Wenn Laih

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In recent times, the dependence and co-movement among international financial markets have become stronger than in the past, as evidenced by commentaries in the news media and the financial sections of newspapers. Studying the co-movement between returns in financial markets is an important issue for portfolio management and risk management. The realization of co-movement helps investors to identify the opportunities for international portfolio management in terms of asset allocation and pricing. Since the election of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in November 2012, the yen has weakened against the US dollar from the 80 to the 120 level. The policies, known as “Abenomics,” are to encourage private investment through a more aggressive mix of monetary and fiscal policy. Given the close economic relations and competitions among Asia markets, it is interesting to discover the co-movement relations, affected by the depreciation of yen, between stock market of Japan and 5 major Asia stock markets, including China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Specifically, we devote ourselves to measure the co-movement of stock markets between Japan and each one of the 5 Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. To compute the coefficients, return series of each stock market is first fitted by a skewed-t GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Secondly, to measure the dependence structure between matched stock markets, we employ the symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula to calculate the probability density function of paired skewed-t distributions. The joint probability density function is then utilized as the scoring scheme to optimize the sequence alignment by dynamic programming method. Finally, we compute the rank correlation coefficients (Kendall's  and Spearman's ) between matched stock markets based on their aligned sequences. We collect empirical data of 6 stock indexes from Taiwan Economic Journal. The data is sampled at a daily frequency covering the period from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2015. The empirical distributions of returns indicate fatter tails than the normal distribution. Therefore, the skewed-t distribution and SJC copula are appropriate for characterizing the data. According to the computed Kendall’s τ, Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan, followed by Taiwan, China, and Singapore; the weakest is Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Spearman’s ρ reveals that the strength of co-movement between markets with Japan in decreasing order are Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We explore the effects of “Abenomics” on Asia stock markets by measuring the co-movement relation between Japan and five major Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. The matched markets are aligned by a hybrid method consisting of GARCH, copula and sequence alignment. Empirical experiments indicate that Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan. The strength of China and Taiwan are better than Singapore. The Hong Kong market has the weakest co-movement relation with Japan.

Keywords: co-movement, depreciation of Yen, rank correlation, stock market

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Semedo

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

Procedia PDF Downloads 495

Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, SEEZ

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Authors: H. Florianová, J. Nešleha

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Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.

Keywords: capital markets, financial derivatives, investors' behavior, regulation

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Authors: R. Rajeswari

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An investigation was carried out to know the SOC stock and its change over time in benchmark soils of different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern. Soil map prepared on 1:50,000 scale from Natural Resources Information System (NRIS) employed under satellite data (IRS-1C/1D-PAN sharpened LISS-III image) was used to estimate SOC stock in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Fifteen benchmark soils were selected in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu based on their land use and the areal extent to assess SOC level and its change overtime. This revealed that, between eleven years of period (1997 - 2007). SOC buildup was higher in soils under horticulture system, followed by soils under rice cultivation. Among different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu hilly zone have the highest SOC stock, followed by north eastern, southern, western, cauvery delta, north western, and high rainfall zone. Although organic carbon content in the soils of North eastern, southern, western, North western, Cauvery delta were less than high rainfall zone, the SOC stock was high. SOC density was higher in high rainfall and hilly zone than other agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Among low rainfall regions of Tamil Nadu cauvery delta zone recorded higher SOC density. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern in viz., Periyanaickenpalayam series (western zone), Peelamedu series (southern zone), Vallam series (north eastern zone), Vannappatti series (north western zone) and Padugai series (cauvery delta zone). Padugai series recorded higher TOC, BIO, and HUM, followed by Periyanaickenpalayam series, Peelamedu series, Vallam series, and Vannappatti series. Vannappatti and Padugai series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under existing cropping pattern. Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Vallam series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under alternate cropping pattern. Among five selected soil series, Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Padugai series recorded 0.75 per cent TOC during 2025 and 2018, 2100 and 2035, 2013 and 2014 under existing and alternate cropping pattern, respectively.

Keywords: agro climatic zones, benchmark soil, land use, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Syed Jamil H. Kazmi, Faiza Sarwar

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The Indus delta of Sindh Province forms the largest creeks zone of Pakistan. The Sindh coast starts from the mouth of Hab River and terminates at Sir Creek area. In this paper, we have considered the major creeks from the site of Bin Qasim Port in Karachi to Jetty of Keti Bunder in Thatta District. A general decline in the mangrove forest has been observed that within a span of last 25 years. The unprecedented human interventions damage the creeks habitat badly which includes haphazard urban development, industrial and sewage disposal, illegal cutting of mangroves forest, reduced and inconsistent fresh water flow mainly from Jhang and Indus rivers. These activities not only harm the creeks habitat but affected the fish stock substantially. Fishing is the main livelihood of coastal people but with the above-mentioned threats, it is also under enormous pressure by fish catches resulted in unchecked overutilization of the fish resources. This pressure is almost unbearable when it joins with deleterious fishing methods, uncontrolled fleet size, increase trash and by-catch of juvenile and illegal mesh size. Along with these anthropogenic interventions study area is under the red zone of tropical cyclones and active seismicity causing floods, sea intrusion, damage mangroves forests and devastation of fish stock. In order to sustain the natural resources of the Indus Creeks, this study was initiated with the support of FAO, WWF and NIO, the main purpose was to develop a Geo-Spatial dataset for fish stock assessment. The study has been spread over a year (2013-14) on monthly basis which mainly includes detailed fish stock survey, water analysis and few other environmental analyses. Environmental analysis also includes the habitat classification of study area which has done through remote sensing techniques for 22 years’ time series (1992-2014). Furthermore, out of 252 species collected, fifteen species from estuarine and marine groups were short-listed to measure the weight, health and growth of fish species at each creek under GIS data through SPSS system. Furthermore, habitat suitability analysis has been conducted by assessing the surface topographic and aspect derivation through different GIS techniques. The output variables then overlaid in GIS system to measure the creeks productivity. Which provided the results in terms of subsequent classes: extremely productive, highly productive, productive, moderately productive and less productive. This study has revealed the Geospatial tools utilization along with the evaluation of the fisheries resources and creeks habitat risk zone mapping. It has also been identified that the geo-spatial technologies are highly beneficial to identify the areas of high environmental risk in Sindh Creeks. This has been clearly discovered from this study that creeks with high rugosity are more productive than the creeks with low levels of rugosity. The study area has the immense potential to boost the economy of Pakistan in terms of fish export, if geo-spatial techniques are implemented instead of conventional techniques.

Keywords: fish stock, geo-spatial, productivity analysis, risk

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Authors: Roohollah Jamshidpour, Elaheh Ahmadi, Farhad Shah Veisi

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Present research seeks to answer this question: Is there any relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and decision on corporate investments? Percentages of institutional, board of director’s, and stockholder’s ownership are among internal mechanisms of corporate governance relationship of which with investment-based decisions are studied by this research. Information on 103 companies during 1388 (2009)- 1393 (2014). Initially, research variables are identified; next, Rah Avard-e Novin software is used to gather Information. SPSS software is employed to test hypotheses with respect to descriptive and inferential statistics like correlation analysis. Research results show that percentage of institutional stockholders’ ownership has a significant direct relationship with investment decisions. For other cases, no significant relationship is observed between corporate governance mechanisms and investment decisions.

Keywords: corporate governance, company size, free floating stock, institutional investors, major shareholders

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Authors: Omar Hussein El Ayadi, EmadY. El-Mansouri, Mohamed B. Dozan

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Production oil process require specific details i.e. oil composition. Generally, types of oil or differentiation between reservoir fluids depend specifically on composition. The main purpose of this study is to correlate and predict the Libyan oil (reservoir fluid and residual) composition utilizing tri-angle-coordinate plots discovered and tasked with Excel. The reservoir fluid data (61 old + 47 new), the residual oil data (33 new) collected from most of Libyan reservoirs were correlated with each others. Moreover, find a relation between stock tank molecular weight and stock tank oil gravity (oAPI), the molecular weight oh (C7+) versus residual oil gravity (oAPI). The average value of every oil composition was estimated including non-hydrocarbon (H2S, CO2, and N2). Nevertheless, the isomers (i-…) and normal (n-…) structure of (C4) and (C5) were also obtained. The summary of the conclusion is; utilizing excel Microsoft office to draw triangle coordinates to find two unknown component if only one is known. However, it is recommended to use the obtained oil composition plots and equations for any oil composition dependents i.e. optimum separator pressure.

Keywords: PVT, phase behavior, petroleum, chemical engineering

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

Abstract:

One of the major assumptions of mainstream macroeconomics is the path independence of capital stock. This paper challenges this assumption by employing an agent-based approach. The simulation results showed the existence of multiple "quasi-steady state" equilibria of the capital stock, which may cast serious doubt on the validity of the assumption. The finding would give a better understanding of many phenomena that involve hysteresis, including the causes of poverty. The "market-clearing view" has been widely shared among major schools of macroeconomics. They understand that the capital stock, the labor force, and technology, determine the "full-employment" equilibrium growth path and demand/supply shocks can move the economy away from the path only temporarily: the dichotomy between the short-run business cycles and the long-run equilibrium path. The view then implicitly assumes the long-run capital stock to be independent of how the economy has evolved. In contrast, "Old Keynesians" have recognized fluctuations in output as arising largely from fluctuations in real aggregate demand. It will then be an interesting question to ask if an agent-based macroeconomic model, which is known to have path dependence, can generate multiple full-employment equilibrium trajectories of the capital stock in the super-long run. If the answer is yes, the equilibrium level of capital stock, an important supply-side factor, would no longer be independent of the business cycle phenomenon. This paper attempts to answer the above question by using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Takahashi and Okada (2010). The model would serve this purpose well because it has neither population growth nor technology progress. The objective of the paper is twofold: (1) to explore the causes of long-term business cycle, and (2) to examine the super-long behaviors of the capital stock of full-employment economies. (1) The simulated behaviors of the key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, real wages showed widely diversified macro-economies. They were often remarkably stable but exhibited both short-term and long-term fluctuations. The long-term fluctuations occur through the following two adjustments: the quantity and relative cost adjustments of capital stock. The first one is obvious and assumed by many business cycle theorists. The reduced aggregate demand lowers prices, which raises real wages, thereby decreasing the relative cost of capital stock with respect to labor. (2) The long-term business cycles/fluctuations were synthesized with the hysteresis of real wages, interest rates, and investments. In particular, a sequence of the simulation runs with a super-long simulation period generated a wide range of perfectly stable paths, many of which achieved full employment: all the macroeconomic trajectories, including capital stock, output, and employment, were perfectly horizontal over 100,000 periods. Moreover, the full-employment level of capital stock was influenced by the history of unemployment, which was itself path-dependent. Thus, an experience of severe unemployment in the past kept the real wage low, which discouraged a relatively costly investment in capital stock. Meanwhile, a history of good performance sometimes brought about a low capital stock due to a high-interest rate that was consistent with a strong investment.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, hysteresis, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 184