Search results for: slip distributions

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

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In this paper, we are interested to determine the carbon dioxide pressure in the arterial blood through radial velocity difference. The blood was modeled as a two phase mixture (an aqueous carbon dioxide solution with carbon dioxide gas) by Drift flux model and the Young-Laplace equation. The distributions of mixture velocities determined from the considered model permitted the calculation of the radial velocity distributions with different values of mean mixture pressure and the calculation of the mean carbon dioxide pressure knowing the mean mixture pressure. The radial velocity distributions are used to deduce a calculation method of the mean mixture pressure through the radial velocity difference between two positions which is measured by ultrasound. The mean carbon dioxide pressure is then deduced from the mean mixture pressure.

Keywords: mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity difference

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Authors: Aude Gounelle, Gloria Senfaute, Ludivine Saint-Mard, Thomas Chartier

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The long-term deformation rates of faults are not fully captured by Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). PSHA that use catalogues to develop area or smoothed-seismicity sources is limited by the data available to constraint future earthquakes activity rates. The integration of faults in PSHA can at least partially address the long-term deformation. However, careful treatment of fault sources is required, particularly, in low strain rate regions, where estimated seismic hazard levels are highly sensitive to assumptions concerning fault geometry, segmentation and slip rate. When integrating faults in PSHA various constraints on earthquake rates from geologic and seismologic data have to be satisfied. For low strain rate regions where such data is scarce it would be especially challenging. Faults in PSHA requires conversion of the geologic and seismologic data into fault geometries, slip rates and then into earthquake activity rates. Several approaches exist for translating slip rates into earthquake activity rates. In the most frequently used approach, the background earthquakes are handled using a truncated approach, in which earthquakes with a magnitude lower or equal to a threshold magnitude (Mw) occur in the background zone, with a rate defined by the rate in the earthquake catalogue. Although magnitudes higher than the threshold are located on the fault with a rate defined using the average slip rate of the fault. As high-lighted by several research, seismic events with magnitudes stronger than the selected magnitude threshold may potentially occur in the background and not only at the fault, especially in regions of slow tectonic deformation. It also has been known that several sections of a fault or several faults could rupture during a single fault-to-fault rupture. It is then essential to apply a consistent modelling procedure to allow for a large set of possible fault-to-fault ruptures to occur aleatory in the hazard model while reflecting the individual slip rate of each section of the fault. In 2019, a tool named SHERIFS (Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems) was published. The tool is using a methodology to calculate the earthquake rates in a fault system where the slip-rate budget of each fault is conversed into rupture rates for all possible single faults and faultto-fault ruptures. The objective of this paper is to compare the SHERIFS method with one other frequently used model to analyse the impact on the seismic hazard and through sensibility studies better understand the influence of key parameters and assumptions. For this application, a simplified but realistic case study was selected, which is in an area of moderate to hight seismicity (South Est of France) and where the fault is supposed to have a low strain.

Keywords: deformation rates, faults, probabilistic seismic hazard, PSHA

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Authors: Simon Guerin-Marthe, Marie Violay

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Thermal Pressurization (TP) has been proposed as a key mechanism involved in the weakening of faults during dynamic ruptures. Theoretical and numerical studies clearly show how frictional heating can lead to an increase in pore fluid pressure due to the rapid slip along faults occurring during earthquakes. In addition, recent laboratory studies have evidenced local pore pressure or local temperature variation during rotary shear tests, which are consistent with TP theoretical and numerical models. The aim of this study is to complement previous ones by measuring both local pore pressure and local temperature variations in the vicinity of a water-saturated calcite gouge layer subjected to a controlled slip velocity in direct double shear configuration. Laboratory investigation of TP process is crucial in order to understand the conditions at which it is likely to become a dominant mechanism controlling dynamic friction. It is also important in order to understand the timing and magnitude of temperature and pore pressure variations, to help understanding when it is negligible, and how it competes with other rather strengthening-mechanisms such as dilatancy, which can occur during rock failure. Here we present unique direct measurements of temperature and pressure variations during high-speed friction experiments under various load point velocities and show the timing of these variations relatively to the slip event.

Keywords: thermal pressurization, double-shear test, high-speed friction, dilatancy

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Authors: Carl-Magnus Everitt, Bo Alfredsson

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Contact mechanics and tribology have been combined with fundamental fatigue and fracture mechanics to form the asperity mechanism which supplies an explanation for the surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue damage, called pitting or spalling. The cracks causing the pits initiates at one surface point and thereafter they slowly grow into the material before chipping of a material piece to form the pit. In the current study, the lubrication aspects on fatigue initiation are simulated by passing a single asperity through a thermal elastohydrodynamic lubricated, TEHL, contact. The physics of the lubricant was described with Reynolds equation and the lubricants pressure-viscosity relation was modeled by Roelands equation, formulated to include temperature dependence. A pressure dependent shear limit was incorporated. To capture the full phenomena of the sliding contact the temperature field was resolved through the incorporation of the energy flow. The heat was mainly generated due to shearing of the lubricant and from dry friction where metal contact occurred. The heat was then transported, and conducted, away by the solids and the lubricant. The fatigue damage caused by the asperities was evaluated through Findley’s fatigue criterion. The results show that asperities, in the size of surface roughness found in applications, may cause surface initiated fatigue damage and crack initiation. The simulations also show that the asperities broke through the lubricant in the inlet, causing metal to metal contact with high friction. When the asperities thereafter moved through the contact, the sliding provided the asperities with lubricant releasing the metal contact. The release of metal contact was possible due to the high viscosity the lubricant obtained from the high pressure. The metal contact in the inlet caused higher friction which increased the risk of fatigue damage. Since the metal contact occurred in the inlet it increased the fatigue risk more for asperities subjected to negative slip than positive slip. Therefore the fatigue evaluations showed that the asperities subjected to negative slip yielded higher fatigue stresses than the asperities subjected to positive slip of equal magnitude. This is one explanation for why pitting is more common in the dedendum than the addendum on pinion gear teeth. The simulations produced further validation for the asperity mechanism by showing that asperities cause surface initiated fatigue and crack initiation.

Keywords: fatigue, rolling, sliding, thermal elastohydrodynamic

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Authors: M. K. Kim, C. H. Shin, W. G. Park

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Recently, natural gas resources are issued due to alternative and eco-friendly energy policies, and development of even unconventional gas resources including tight gas, coal bed methane and shale gas is being rapidly expanded from North America all over the world. For developing these gas reservoirs, it is necessary to investigate reservoir characteristics by using reservoir simulation. In reservoir simulation, calculation of permeability of fractured zone is very important to predict the gas production. However, it is difficult to accurately calculate the permeability by using conventional methods which use analytic solution for laminar flow. The flow in gas reservoirs exhibits complex flow behavior such as slip around the wall roughness effect and turbulence because the size of the apertures of fractures is ranged over various scales from nano-scale to centi-scale. Therefore, it is required to apply new reservoir flow analysis methods which can accurately consider complex gas flow owing to the geometric characteristics and distributions of various pores and flow paths within gas reservoirs. Hence, in this study, the flow characteristics and the relation between each characteristic variable was investigated and multi-effect was quantified when the fractures are compounded for devising a new calculation model of permeability of fractured zone in gas reservoirs by using CFD.

Keywords: fractured zone, gas reservoir, permeability, CFD

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Authors: A. Asaga, N. I. Basuki

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The research area is located in Cisarua, Bogor Regency, West Java, with 12,8 km2 wide. This area belongs to mining region of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. The purpose of this research is to study geological condition, alteration type and pattern, and type of mineralization. Geomorphology of the research area is at young to mature stage, which can be divided into Ciparigi’s Parasite Volcanic Cone Unit, Ciparigi Caldera Valley Unit, Ciparigi Caldera Rim Hill Unit, and Pongkor Volcanic Hill. Stratigraphy of the research area consist of five units, they are Laharic Breccia (Pliocene), Pyroclastic Breccia, Lapilli Tuff, Flow Tuff, Fall Tuff, and Andesite Lava (Pleistocene). Based on mineral composition, it is interpreted that there is magma composition changing from rhyolite to andesitic. Geological structures in the research area are caused by NE-SW and N-S stress direction; they are Ciparay Right Strike-Slip Fault (Pliocene), Cisarua Right Strike-Slip Fault, G. Singa Left Strike-Slip Fault, and Cinyuncung Right Strike-Slip Fault (Pleistocene). Weak to strong hydrothermal alteration can be found in the research area.They are Chlorite ± Smectite ± Halloysite Zone, Smectite - Illite - Quartz Zone, Smectite - Kaolinite - Illite - Chlorite Zone, and Smectite - Chlorite - Calcite - Quartz Zone. The distribution and assemblage of alteration minerals is controlled by lithology and geological structures in Pleistocene. Mineralization produce ore minerals, those are pyrite, marcasite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, galena, and chalcocite. There are calcite and quartz veins that show colloform, comb, and crystalline textures. Hydrothermal alteration assemblages, ore minerals, and cavity filling textures suggest that mineralization type in research area is epithermal low sulphidation.

Keywords: Pongkor, hydrothermal alteration, epithermal, geochemistry

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Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Ali Kadri, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The Tunisian dorsal backland is located on the Eastern Atlas side of the Maghrebides (North Africa). The analysis of collected field data in the Rouas and Ruissate mountains area allowed us to develop new interpretations for its structural framework. Our kinematic analysis of fault-slip data reveals the presence of an extensional tectonic regime with NE-SW Shmin, characterizing the Mesozoic times. In addition, geophysical data shows that the synsedimentary normal faulting is accompanied by thickness variations of sedimentary sequences and Triassic salt movements. Then, after the Eurasia-Africa plate’s convergence during the Eocene, compressive tectonic deformations affected and reactivated the inherited NW-SE and N-S trending normal faults as dextral strike-slip and reverse faults, respectively. This tectonic inversion, with compression to the transpressional tectonic regime and NW-SE SHmax, continued during the successive shortening phases of the upper Miocene and Quaternary. The geometry of the Rouas and Ruissate belt is expressed as a fault propagation fold, affecting Jurassic and Cretaceous deposits. The Triassic evaporates constitute the decollement levels, facilitating the detachment and deformation of the sedimentary cover. The backland of this thrust belt is defined by NNE-SSW trending imbrication features that are controlled by a basement N-S fault.

Keywords: Tunisian dorsal backland, fault slip data; synsedimentary faults, tectonic inversion, decollement level, fault propagation fold

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Jee-Sang Kim, Jong Ho Park

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Geopolymer concretes are a new class of construction materials that have emerged as an alternative to Ordinary Portland cement concrete. Considerable researches have been carried out on material development of geopolymer concrete, however, a few studies have been reported on the structural use of them. This paper presents the bond behaviors of reinforcement embedded in fly ash based geopolymer concrete. The development lengths of reinforcement for various compressive strengths of concrete, 20, 30 and 40 MPa, and reinforcement diameters, 10, 16, and 25 mm are investigated. Total 27 specimens were manufactured and pull-out test according to EN 10080 was applied to measure bond strength and slips between concrete and reinforcements. The average bond strengths decreased from 23.06MPa to 17.26 MPa, as the diameters of reinforcements increased from 10mm to 25mm. The compressive strength levels of geopolymer concrete showed no significant influence on bond strengths in this study. Also, the bond-slip relations between geopolymer concrete and reinforcement are derived using non-linear regression analysis for various experimental conditions.

Keywords: bond-slip relation, bond strength, geopolymer concrete, pull-out test

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. Finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: bootstrap, Instrumental Variable, Edgeworth expansions, Saddlepoint expansions

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Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman

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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.

Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters

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Authors: Sadoon Abdallah, Mizi Fan, Xiangming Zhou

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In this study, a comprehensive approach has been adopted to examine in detail the effect of various hook geometries on bond-slip characteristics. Extensive single fibre pull-out tests on ultra-high performance matrix with three different W/B ratios and embedded lengths have been carried out. Test results showed that the mechanical deformation of fibre hook is the main mechanism governing the pull-out behaviour. Furthermore, the quantitative analyses have been completed to compare the hook design contribution of 3D, 4D and 5D fibres to assess overall pull-out behaviour. It was also revealed that there is a strong relationship between the magnitude of hook contribution and W/B ratio (i.e. matrix strength). Reducing the W/B ratio from 0.20 to 0.11 greatly optimizes the interfacial transition zone (ITZ) and enables better mobilization, straightening of the hook and results in bond-slip-hardening behaviour.

Keywords: bobond mechanisms, fibre-matrix interface, hook geometry, pullout behaviour and water to binder ratio

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Authors: A. T. Siacara, A. T. Beck, M. M. Futai

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This paper shows how accurately and efficiently reliability analyses of geotechnical installations can be performed by directly coupling geotechnical software with a reliability solver. An earth slope is used as the study object. The limit equilibrium method of Morgenstern-Price is used to calculate factors of safety and find the critical slip surface. The deterministic software package Seep/W and Slope/W is coupled with the StRAnD reliability software. Reliability indexes of critical probabilistic surfaces are evaluated by the first-order reliability methods (FORM). By means of sensitivity analysis, the effective cohesion (c') is found to be the most relevant uncertain geotechnical parameter for slope equilibrium. The slope was tested using different geometries, taking into account unsaturated soil properties. Finally, a critical slip surface, identified in terms of minimum factor of safety, is shown here not to be the critical surface in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: slope, unsaturated, reliability, safety, seepage

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: K. A. Adepoju, O. I. Shittu, A. U. Chukwu

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In this paper, a new four-parameter generalized version of the Fisher Snedecor distribution called Beta- F distribution is introduced. The comprehensive account of the statistical properties of the new distributions was considered. Formal expressions for the cumulative density function, moments, moment generating function and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as its Fisher information, were obtained. The flexibility of this distribution as well as its robustness using cancer remission time data was demonstrated. The new distribution can be used in most applications where the assumption underlying the use of other lifetime distributions is violated.

Keywords: fisher-snedecor distribution, beta-f distribution, outlier, maximum likelihood method

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Authors: M. Sumida, T. Fujimoto

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Fiber-concentration distributions in pulp liquid flows behind dispersion promoters were experimentally investigated to explore the feasibility of improving operational performance of hydraulic headboxes in papermaking machines. The proposed research was performed in the form of a basic test conducted on a screen-type model comprising a circular cylinder inserted within a channel. Tests were performed using pulp liquid possessing fiber concentrations ranging from 0.3-1.0 wt% under different flow velocities of 0.016-0.74 m/s. Fiber-concentration distributions were measured using the transmitted light attenuation method. Obtained test results were analyzed, and the influence of the flow velocities on wake characteristics behind the cylinder has been investigated with reference to findings of our preceding studies concerning pulp liquid flows in straight channels. Changes in fiber-concentration distribution along the flow direction were observed to be substantially large in the section from the cylinder to four times its diameter downstream of its centerline. Findings of this study provide useful information concerning the development of hydraulic headboxes.

Keywords: dispersion promoter, fiber-concentration distribution, hydraulic headbox, pulp liquid flow

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Authors: Jian Huang, Weixin Qian, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

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Cobalt-gadolinium catalyst for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was prepared by impregnation method with commercial silica gel, and its texture properties were characterized by BET, XRD, and TPR. The catalytic performance of the catalyst was tested in a fixed bed reactor. The results showed that the addition of gadolinium to the cobalt catalyst might decrease the size of cobalt particles, and increased the dispersion of catalytic active cobalt phases. The carbon number distributions for the catalysts was calculated by ASF equation.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, cobalt-based catalysts, gadolinium, carbon number distributions

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar, Roopali Dogra, Puneet Aggarwal

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In recent advancements in electric machine and drives, wound rotor motor is extensively used. The merit of using wound rotor induction motor is to control speed/torque characteristics by inserting external resistance. Wound rotor induction motor can be used in the cases such as (a) low inrush current, (b) load requiring high starting torque, (c) lower starting current is required, (d) loads having high inertia, and (e) gradual built up of torque. Examples include conveyers, cranes, pumps, elevators, and compressors. This paper includes speed control of wound induction motor using MATLAB/Simulink for rotor resistance and slip power recovery method. The characteristics of these speed control methods are hence analyzed.

Keywords: MATLAB/Simulink, rotor resistance method, slip power recovery method, wound rotor induction motor

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Authors: Chia-Yung Chou, Che-Chuan Cheng, Chin Chi Hsu, Chun-Hui Wu

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This study investigates the fluid of boundary layer flow as it flows through the superhydrophobic surface. The superhydrophobic surface will be assembled into an observation channel for fluid experiments. The fluid in the channel will be doped with visual flow field particles, which will then be pumped by the syringe pump and introduced into the experimentally observed channel through the pipeline. Through the polarized light irradiation, the movement of the particles in the channel is captured by a high-speed camera, and the velocity of the particles is analyzed by MATLAB to find out the particle velocity field changes caused on the fluid boundary layer. This study found that the superhydrophobic surface can effectively increase the velocity near the wall surface, and the faster with the flow rate increases. The superhydrophobic surface also had longer the slip length compared with the plan surface. In the calculation of the drag coefficient, the superhydrophobic surface produces a lower drag coefficient, and there is a more significant difference when the Re reduced in the flow field.

Keywords: hydrophobic, boundary layer, slip length, friction

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Authors: Ayman Baklizi

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Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.

Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles

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Authors: Jawad Zakir, Syed Irtiza Ali Shah, Rana Shaharyar, Sidra Mahmood

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Y-force equation comprises aerodynamic forces, drag and side force with side slip angle β and weight component along with the coupled roll (φ) and pitch angles (θ). This research deals with the linearization of Y-force equation using Small Disturbance theory assuming equilibrium flight conditions for different state variables of aircraft. By using assumptions of Small Disturbance theory in non-linear Y-force equation, finally reached at linearized lateral rigid body equation of motion; which says that in linearized Y-force equation, the lateral acceleration is dependent on the other different aerodynamic and propulsive forces like vertical tail, change in roll rate (Δp) from equilibrium, change in yaw rate (Δr) from equilibrium, change in lateral velocity due to side force, drag and side force components due to side slip, and the lateral equation from coupled rotating frame to decoupled rotating frame. This paper describes implementation of this lateral linearized equation for aircraft control systems. Another significant parameter considered on which y-force equation depends is ‘c’ which shows that any change bought in the weight of aircrafts wing will cause Δφ and cause lateral force i.e. Y_c. This simplification also leads to lateral static and dynamic stability. The linearization of equations is required because much of mathematics control system design for aircraft is based on linear equations. This technique is simple and eases the linearization of the rigid body equations of motion without using any high-speed computers.

Keywords: Y-force linearization, small disturbance theory, side slip, aerodynamic force drag, lateral rigid body equation of motion

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

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A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

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Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: arctangent transformation, tail classification, heavy-tailed distributions, distributional moments

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Authors: Gennaro Marino

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This paper concerns a case of a 10.75 inch diameter buried gas transmission line which was exposed to mine subsidence ground movements. The pipeline was buried about 4ft. below the surface with maximum operating pressure of 1440 psi. The mine subsidence movement was the result of long walling ore at a depth of approximately 1600 ft. As ore extraction progressed, the stress in the monitored pipeline worsened and was approaching unacceptable levels. The excessive pipe compression resulted when it was exposed to the compression zone of subsidence basin created by mining. The pipe stress reached a significant compressive level due to the extensive length of the pipe exposed to frictional ground-pipe slip resistance. The backfill ground movement slip resistance depends on normal stress around the pipe, the rate of slip, and the backfill characteristics. Normal stress depends on the burial depth of the backfill density and the lateral subsidence induced stress. The backfill in this site has a soil dry density of approximately 90 PCF. A suite of direct shear tests was conducted a residual friction angle of 36 was determined for the ambient backfill. These tests showed that the residual shearing resistance was reached within a fraction of an inch. The pipe was coated with fusion-bonded epoxy, so friction reduce factory of 0.6 can be considered. To relieve ground movement induced compressive stress, the line was uncovered. As more of the pipeline was exposed, the pipe abruptly bowed in the excavation. An analysis of this pipe formation which was performed is provided in this paper. Also discussed in this paper are ways to mitigate this pipe deformation or upheaval buckling from occurring. Keywords: Pipe Upheaval, Pipe Buckling, Ground subsidence, Buried Pipeline, Pipe Stress Mitigation.

Keywords: pipe upheaval, pipe buckling, ground subsidence, buried pipeline, pipe stress mitigation

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Meimei Wen, Chang Nyung Kim

Abstract:

In the current study, three-dimensional liquid metal (LM) magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) flows in a manifold with three sub-channels under a uniform magnetic field are numerically investigated. In the manifold, the electrical current can cross channel walls, thus having influence on the flow distribution in each sub-channel. A case with various arrangements of electric conductivity for different parts of channel walls is considered, yielding different current distributions as well as flow distributions in each sub-channel. Here, the imbalance of mass flow rates in the three sub-channels is addressed. Meanwhile, predicted are detailed behaviors of the flow velocity, pressure, current and electric potential of LM MHD flows with three sub-channels. Commercial software CFX is used for the numerical simulation of LM MHD flows.

Keywords: CFX, liquid metal, manifold, MHD flow

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

Abstract:

Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

Procedia PDF Downloads 317