Search results for: scoring based risk assessment method

Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Noryani Natasha Yahaya, Anas Ibrahim, Juraidah Ahmad, Azura Ahmad, Mohd Ikmal Fazlan Rosli, Zailan Ramli, Muhd Sidek Muhd Norhasri

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The subgrade formation is an important element of the railway structure which holds overall track stability. Conventional track maintenance involves many substructure component replacements, as well as track re-ballasting on a regular basis is partially contributed to the embankment's long-term settlement problem. For subgrade long-term stability analysis, the geophysical method is commonly being used to diagnose those hidden sources/mechanisms of track deterioration problems that the normal visual method is unable to detect. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is one of the applicable geophysical tools that are helpful in railway subgrade inspection/track monitoring due to its flexibility and reliability of the analysis. The ERT was conducted at KM 23.0 of Pinang Tunggal track to investigate the subgrade of railway track through the characterization/mapping on track formation profiling which was directly generated using 2D analysis of Res2dinv software. The profiles will allow examination of the presence and spatial extent of a significant subgrade layer and screening of any poor contact of soil boundary. Based on the finding, there is a mix/interpretation/intermixing of an interlayer between the sub-ballast and the sand. Although the embankment track considered here is at no immediate risk of settlement effect or any failure, the regular monitoring of track’s location will allow early correction maintenance if necessary. The developed data of track formation clearly shows the similarity of the side view with the assessed track. The data visualization in the 2D section of the track embankment agreed well with the initial assumption based on the main element structure general side view.

Keywords: ground track, assessment, resistivity, geophysical railway, method

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: C. Caçador, M. J. Reis Lima, J. Oliveira, M. J. Veiga, M. Teixeira Veríssimo, F. Ramos, M. C. Castilho, E. Teixeira-Lemos

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In the present study we evaluated the nutritional status of 214 institutionalized elderly residents of both genders, aged 65 years and older of 11 care homes located in the district of Viseu (center of Portugal). The evaluation was based on anthropometric measurements and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score. The mean age of the subjects was 82.3 ± 6.1 years-old. Most of the elderly residents were female (72.0%). The majority had 4 years of formal education (51.9%) and was widowed (74.3%) or married (14.0%). Men presented a mean age of 81.2±8.5 years-old, weight 69.3±14.5 kg and BMI 25.33±6.5 kg/m2. In women, the mean age was 84.5±8.2 years-old, weight 61.2±14.7 kg and BMI 27.43±5.6 kg/m2. The evaluation of the nutritional status using the MNA score showed that 24.0% of the residents show a risk of undernutrition and 76.0% of them were well nourished. There was a high prevalence of obese (24.8%) and overweight residents (33.2%) according to the BMI. 7.5% were considered underweight. We also found that according to their waist circumference measurements 88.3% of the residents were at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 64.0% of them presented very high risk for CVD (WC≥88 cm for women and WC ≥102 cm for men). The present study revealed the coexistence of a dual form of malnutrition (undernourished and overweight) among the institutionalized Portuguese concomitantly with an excess of abdominal adiposity. The high prevalence of residents at high risk for CVD should not be overlooked. Given the vulnerability of the group of institutionalized elderly, our study highlights the importance of the classification of nutritional status based on both instruments: the BMI and the MNA.

Keywords: nutritional satus, MNA, BMI, elderly

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori

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The technology of computer audit played a major role in the progress and prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through research in this paper, we propose the causes of audit risk in a computer environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information management

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Authors: Ali Mohaghar, Iman Ghasemian Sahebi, Alireza Arab

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In the last decades, increasing in human and natural disaster occurrence had very irreparable effects on human life. Hence, one of the important issues in humanitarian supply chain management is identifying and prioritizing the different risks and finding suitable solutions for encountering them at the time of disaster occurrence. This study is an attempt to provide a comprehensive review of humanitarian supply chain risks in a case study of Tehran Red Crescent Societies. For this purpose, Best-Worst method (BWM) has been used for analyzing the risks of the humanitarian supply chain. 22 risks of the humanitarian supply chain were identified based on the literature and interviews with four experts. According to BWM method, the importance of each risk was calculated. The findings showed that culture contexts, little awareness of people, and poor education system are the most important humanitarian supply chain risks. This research provides a useful guideline for managers so that they can benefit from the results to prioritize their solutions.

Keywords: Best-Worst Method, humanitarian logistics, humanitarian supply chain, risk management

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Authors: K. Ivandic, F. Dodigovic, D. Stuhec, S. Strelec

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A characteristic value of certain geotechnical parameter results from an engineering assessment. Its selection has to be based on technical principles and standards of engineering practice. It has been shown that the results of engineering assessment of different authors for the same problem and input data are significantly dispersed. A survey was conducted in which participants had to estimate the force that causes a 10 cm displacement at the top of a axially in-situ compressed pile. Fifty experts from all over the world took part in it. The lowest estimated force value was 42% and the highest was 133% of measured force resulting from a mentioned static pile load test. These extreme values result in significantly different technical solutions to the same engineering task. In case of selecting a characteristic value of a geotechnical parameter the importance of the influence of an engineering assessment can be reduced by using statistical methods. An informative annex of Eurocode 1 prescribes the method of selecting the characteristic values of material properties. This is followed by Eurocode 7 with certain specificities linked to selecting characteristic values of geotechnical parameters. The paper shows the procedure of selecting characteristic values of a geotechnical parameter by using a statistical method with different initial conditions. The aim of the paper is to quantify an engineering assessment in the example of determining a characteristic value of a specific geotechnical parameter. It is assumed that this assessment is a random variable and that its statistical features will be determined. For this purpose, a survey research was conducted among relevant experts from the field of geotechnical engineering. Conclusively, the results of the survey and the application of statistical method were compared.

Keywords: characteristic values, engineering judgement, Eurocode 7, statistical methods

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Md. Abid Khan

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Arc Flash safety assessment is a critical component for continuous improvement of any company’s safe electrical arc flash standard (SEAFS). The standard requires periodic internal or external audits to verify compliance and assess implementation. Assessments will identify strengths and opportunities for improvement, and serve as the basis for corrective actions. An arc flash safety assessment is comprised of a review of any existing safe electrical arc flash standard documentation (e.g., such as work procedures or other supporting documents), onsite interviews, and observations (e.g., facility inspections and work task observations). Substation-based arc flash assessment is very popular as it is more specific for each substation. The enhanced department-based arc flash safety assessment will shift focus to more effective hazard control measures and emphasis will be placed on highlighting inherently unsafe equipment to support resolution actions by facility management, rather than relying on lessor effective control methods in the hierarchy of controls currently deployed at a number of facilities.

Keywords: assessment, remote racking device (RRD), key performance indicator (KPI), personal protective equipment (PPE), operation & maintenance (O&M), safety management system (SMS), safe electrical arc flash standard (SEAFS)

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Authors: Van Thien NGO

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The purpose of the study is to examine the effect of student response systems in computer-based formative assessment on learning outcomes. The backward design course is a tool to be applied for collecting necessary assessment evidence. The quasi-experimental research design involves collecting pre and posttest data on students assigned to the control group and the experimental group. The sample group consists of 150 college students randomly selected from two of the eight classes of electrical and electronics students at Cao Thang Technical College in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Findings from this research revealed that the experimental group, in which student response systems were applied, got better results than the controlled group, who did not apply them. Results show that using student response systems for technology-based formative assessment is vital and meaningful not only for teachers but also for students in the teaching and learning process.

Keywords: student response system, computer-based formative assessment, learning outcome, backward design course

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

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Authors: Oktay Nusratov, Ramin Rzaev, Aydin Goyushov

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Fuzzy inference method based approach to the forming of modular intellectual system of assessment the quality of communication services is proposed. Developed under this approach the basic fuzzy estimation model takes into account the recommendations of the International Telecommunication Union in respect of the operation of packet switching networks based on IP-protocol. To implement the main features and functions of the fuzzy control system of quality telecommunication services it is used multilayer feedforward neural network.

Keywords: quality of communication, IP-telephony, fuzzy set, fuzzy implication, neural network

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Sh Norliza Sy Salim, Pedram Hatami Abdullah

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Civil and structural assets normally have an average of more than 30 years of design life. Adding to this advantage, the assets are normally subjected to slow degradation process. Due to the fact that repair and strengthening work for these assets are normally not dependent on plant shut down, the maintenance and integrity restoration of these assets are mostly done based on “as required” and “run to failure” basis. However unlike other industries, the exposure in oil and gas environment is harsher as the result of corrosive soil and groundwater, chemical spill, frequent wetting and drying, icing and de-icing, steam and heat, etc. Due to this type of exposure and the increasing level of structural defects and rectification in line with the increasing age of plants, assets integrity assessment requires a more defined scope and procedures that needs to be based on risk and assets criticality. This leads to the establishment of risk based inspection and proactive maintenance procedure for civil and structural assets. To date there is hardly any procedure and guideline as far as integrity assessment and systematic inspection and maintenance of civil and structural assets (onshore) are concerned. Group Technical Solutions has developed a procedure and guideline that takes into consideration credible failure scenario, assets risk and criticality from process safety and structural engineering perspective, structural importance, modeling and analysis among others. Detailed inspection that includes destructive and non-destructive tests (DT & NDT) and structural monitoring is also being performed to quantify defects, assess severity and impact on integrity as well as identify the timeline for integrity restoration. Each defect and its credible failure scenario is assessed against the risk on people, environment, reputation and production loss. This technical paper is intended to share on the established procedure and guideline and their execution in oil & gas plants. In line with the overall roadmap, the procedure and guideline will form part of specialized solutions to increase production and to meet the “Operational Excellence” target while extending service life of civil and structural assets. As the result of implementation, the management of civil and structural assets is now more systematically done and the “fire-fighting” mode of maintenance is being gradually phased out and replaced by a proactive and preventive approach. This technical paper will also set the criteria and pose the challenge to the industry for innovative repair and strengthening methods for civil & structural assets in oil & gas environment, in line with safety, constructability and continuous modification and revamp of plant facilities to meet production demand.

Keywords: assets criticality, credible failure scenario, proactive and preventive maintenance, risk based inspection

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Authors: Jennifer Holbein, Maritza Wiedel

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Background: Aging is associated with an increased risk of falls in older adults, and as a result, falls have become public health crises. However, the incidence of falls can be reduced through healthy aging and the implementation of a regular exercise and strengthening program. Public health and healthcare professionals authorize the use of evidence‐based, exercise‐focused fall interventions, but there are major obstacles to translating and disseminating research findings into healthcare practices. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of an intervention, A Matter of Balance, in terms of demand, acceptability, and implementation into current exercise programs. Subjects: Seventy-five participants from rural communities, above the age of sixty, were randomized to an intervention or attention-control of the standardized senior fitness test. Methods: Subject completes the intervention, which combines two components: (1) motivation and (2) fall-reducing physical activities with protocols derived from baseline strength and balanced assessments. Participants (n=75) took part in the program after completing baseline functional assessments as well as evaluations of their personal knowledge, health outcomes, demand, and implementation interventions. After 8-weeks of the program, participants were invited to complete follow-up assessments with results that were compared to their baseline functional analyses. Out of all the participants in the study who complete the initial assessment, approximately 80% are expected to maintain enrollment in the implemented prescription. Furthermore, those who commit to the program should show mitigation of fall risk upon completion of their final assessment.

Keywords: aging population, exercise, falls, functional assessment, healthy aging

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Authors: H. Ben Salah, A. Gannoun, C. de Peretti, A. Trabelsi

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The Downside Risk (DSR) model for portfolio optimisation allows to overcome the drawbacks of the classical mean-variance model concerning the asymetry of returns and the risk perception of investors. This model optimization deals with a positive definite matrix that is endogenous with respect to portfolio weights. This aspect makes the problem far more difficult to handle. For this purpose, Athayde (2001) developped a new recurcive minimization procedure that ensures the convergence to the solution. However, when a finite number of observations is available, the portfolio frontier presents an appearance which is not very smooth. In order to overcome that, Athayde (2003) proposed a mean kernel estimation of the returns, so as to create a smoother portfolio frontier. This technique provides an effect similar to the case in which we had continuous observations. In this paper, taking advantage on the the robustness of the median, we replace the mean estimator in Athayde's model by a nonparametric median estimator of the returns. Then, we give a new version of the former algorithm (of Athayde (2001, 2003)). We eventually analyse the properties of this improved portfolio frontier and apply this new method on real examples.

Keywords: Downside Risk, Kernel Method, Median, Nonparametric Estimation, Semivariance

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

Abstract:

the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

Abstract:

This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

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Authors: Alexey Abilov

Abstract:

Sociological research in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population in the last decade has become an essential part of a comprehensive assessment of the territory in the practice of urban planning in Kazakhstan. This method was successfully used for developing master plans of settlements, urban agglomerations, and projects of detailed planning of individual sections of the urban environment. Also, it greatly contributes to the objectification of design solutions, since in addition to the traditional expert multifactorial assessment of urban development territories by professional designers, they provide an opportunity to consider existing urban development problems at the local level from the inside, through the eyes of the living population. A comparison of two areas of assessment of the territory -expert and social- allows us to give a more balanced final assessment, which can serve as a strong basis for making correct design decisions. The author of the article shows this by the example of the social assessment of the territory of the Almaty urban agglomeration in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population conducted in order to assess the quality of the living environment of the population, preferences in place and forms of recreation, as well as to delimitation the boundaries of the agglomeration. At the same time, the author's methodology of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the territory divided into polling stations is used, based on a comparison of the percentage of respondents' responses to various questionnaire questions with the total number of respondents.

Keywords: social assessment of territory, comprehensive assessment, urban agglomeration, correct design decisions

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Authors: Bechir Hbibi, Lamine Mili

Abstract:

Understanding the condition of comatose patients can be difficult, but it is crucial to their optimal treatment. Consequently, numerous scoring systems have been developed around the world to categorize patient states based on physiological assessments. Although validated and widely adopted by medical communities, these scores still present numerous limitations and obstacles. Even with the addition of additional tests and extensions, these scoring systems have not been able to overcome certain limitations, and it appears unlikely that they will be able to do so in the future. On the other hand, physiological tests are not the only way to extract ideas about comatose patients. EEG signal analysis has helped extensively to understand the human brain and human consciousness and has been used by researchers in the classification of different levels of disease. The use of EEG in the ICU has become an urgent matter in several cases and has been recommended by medical organizations. In this field, the EEG is used to investigate epilepsy, dementia, brain injuries, and many other neurological disorders. It has recently also been used to detect pain activity in some regions of the brain, for the detection of stress levels, and to evaluate sleep quality. In our recent findings, our aim was to use multifractal analysis, a very successful method of handling multifractal signals and feature extraction, to establish a state of awareness scale for comatose patients based on their electrical brain activity. The results show that this score could be instantaneous and could overcome many limitations with which the physiological scales stock. On the contrary, multifractal analysis stands out as a highly effective tool for characterizing non-stationary and self-similar signals. It demonstrates strong performance in extracting the properties of fractal and multifractal data, including signals and images. As such, we leverage this method, along with other features derived from EEG signal recordings from comatose patients, to develop a scale. This scale aims to accurately depict the vigilance state of patients in intensive care units and to address many of the limitations inherent in physiological scales such as the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the FOUR score. The results of applying version V0 of this approach to 30 patients with known GCS showed that the EEG-based score similarly describes the states of vigilance but distinguishes between the states of 8 sedated patients where the GCS could not be applied. Therefore, our approach could show promising results with patients with disabilities, injected with painkillers, and other categories where physiological scores could not be applied.

Keywords: coma, vigilance state, EEG, multifractal analysis, feature extraction

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Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

Abstract:

Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

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Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, ϵ - constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Aida Nurul Safitri, Rosita Sari

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Physics is science, which in its learning there are some product such as theory, fact, concept, law and formula. So that to understand physics lesson students not only need a theory or concept but also mathematical calculation to solve physics problem through formula or equation. This is can be taken from mathematics lesson which obtained by students. This research is to know the influence of mathematics learning outcomes towards physics ability in Senior High School through authentic assessment system. Based on the researches have been discussed, is obtained that mathematic lesson have an important role in physics learning but it according to one aspect only, namely cognitive aspect. In Indonesia, curriculum of 2013 reinforces displacement in the assessment, from assessment through test (measuring the competence of knowledge based on the result) toward authentic assessment (measuring the competence of attitudes, skills, and knowledge based on the process and results). In other researches are mentioned that authentic assessment system give positive responses for students to improve their motivation and increase the physics learning in the school.

Keywords: authentic assessment, curriculum of 2013, mathematic, physics

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Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: A. Karunasena, P. Bandara, J. A. T. P. Jayasuriya, P. D. Gallage, J. M. S. D. Jayasundara, L. A. P. Y. P. Nuwanjaya

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Usage of smart learning concepts has increased rapidly all over the world recently as better teaching and learning methods. Most educational institutes such as universities are experimenting those concepts with their students. Smart learning concepts are especially useful for students to learn better in large classes. In large classes, the lecture method is the most popular method of teaching. In the lecture method, the lecturer presents the content mostly using lecture slides, and the students make their own notes based on the content presented. However, some students may find difficulties with the above method due to various issues such as speed in delivery. The purpose of this research is to assist students in large classes in the following content. The research proposes a solution with four components, namely note-taker, slide matcher, reference finder, and question presenter, which are helpful for the students to obtain a summarized version of the lecture note, easily navigate to the content and find resources, and revise content using questions.

Keywords: automatic summarization, extractive text summarization, speech recognition library, sentence extraction, automatic web search, automatic question generator, sentence scoring, the term weight

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Authors: Fu-Pei Hsiao, Fung-Chung Tu, Chien-Kuo Chiu

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In this work, to develop a method for detailed assesses of post-earthquake seismic performance for RC buildings in Taiwan, experimental data for several column specimens with various failure modes (flexural failure, flexural-shear failure, and shear failure) are used to derive reduction factors of seismic capacity for specified damage states. According to the damage states of RC columns and their corresponding seismic reduction factors suggested by experimental data, this work applies the detailed seismic performance assessment method to identify the seismic capacity of earthquake-damaged RC buildings. Additionally, a post-earthquake emergent assessment procedure is proposed that can provide the data needed for decision about earthquake-damaged buildings in a region with high seismic hazard. Finally, three actual earthquake-damaged school buildings in Taiwan are used as a case study to demonstrate application of the proposed assessment method.

Keywords: seismic assessment, seismic reduction factor, residual seismic ratio, post-earthquake, reinforced concrete, building

Procedia PDF Downloads 372