Search results for: scenario analysis

Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

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The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

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Authors: Hooman Fallah

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Vast amounts of world oil reservoirs are in natural fractured reservoirs. There are different methods for increasing recovery from fractured reservoirs. Miscible injection of water alternating CO2 is a good choice among this methods. In this method, water and CO2 slugs are injected alternatively in reservoir as miscible agent into reservoir. This paper studies water injection scenario and miscible injection of water and CO2 in a two dimensional, inhomogeneous fractured reservoir. The results show that miscible water alternating CO2¬ gas injection leads to 3.95% increase in final oil recovery and total water production decrease of 3.89% comparing to water injection scenario.

Keywords: simulation study, CO2, water alternating gas injection, fractured reservoirs

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Authors: Subhayan Maity

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Complete scenario of cosmic evolution from emergent phase to late time acceleration (i.e. non-singular ever expanding Universe) is a popular preference in the recent cosmology. Yet one can’t exclude the idea that other type of evolution pattern of the Universe may also be possible. Especially, the bouncing scenario is becoming a matter of interest now a days. The present work is an exhibition of such a different pattern of cosmic evolution where the evolution of Universe has been shown as a cyclic thermodynamic process. Under diffusion mechanism (non-equilibrium thermodynamic process), the cosmic evolution has been modelled as [ emergent - accelerated expansion - decelerated expansion - decelerated contraction - accelerated contraction - emergent] .

Keywords: non-equilibrium thermodynamics, non singular evolution of universe, cyclic evolution, diffusive fluid

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Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

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This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

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Authors: N. R. N. Idris, S. Baharom

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A meta-analysis may be performed using aggregate data (AD) or an individual patient data (IPD). In practice, studies may be available at both IPD and AD level. In this situation, both the IPD and AD should be utilised in order to maximize the available information. Statistical advantages of combining the studies from different level have not been fully explored. This study aims to quantify the statistical benefits of including available IPD when conducting a conventional summary-level meta-analysis. Simulated meta-analysis were used to assess the influence of the levels of data on overall meta-analysis estimates based on IPD-only, AD-only and the combination of IPD and AD (mixed data, MD), under different study scenario. The percentage relative bias (PRB), root mean-square-error (RMSE) and coverage probability were used to assess the efficiency of the overall estimates. The results demonstrate that available IPD should always be included in a conventional meta-analysis using summary level data as they would significantly increased the accuracy of the estimates. On the other hand, if more than 80% of the available data are at IPD level, including the AD does not provide significant differences in terms of accuracy of the estimates. Additionally, combining the IPD and AD has moderating effects on the biasness of the estimates of the treatment effects as the IPD tends to overestimate the treatment effects, while the AD has the tendency to produce underestimated effect estimates. These results may provide some guide in deciding if significant benefit is gained by pooling the two levels of data when conducting meta-analysis.

Keywords: aggregate data, combined-level data, individual patient data, meta-analysis

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Li, H. T. Lin, J. H. Yang, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

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Fuel rod analysis program transient (FRAPTRAN) code was used to study the fuel rod performance during a postulated large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) in Maanshan nuclear power plant (NPP). Previous transient results from thermal hydraulic code, TRACE, with the same LBLOCA scenario, were used as input boundary conditions for FRAPTRAN. The simulation results showed that the peak cladding temperatures and the fuel center line temperatures were all below the 10CFR50.46 LOCA criteria. In addition, the maximum hoop stress was 18 MPa and the oxide thickness was 0.003 mm for the present simulation cases, which are all within the safety operation ranges. The present study confirms that this analysis method, the FRAPTRAN code combined with TRACE, is an appropriate approach to predict the fuel integrity under LBLOCA with operational ECCS.

Keywords: FRAPTRAN, TRACE, LOCA, PWR

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Authors: Adel Gurel, Ozge Ceylin Yildirim

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Nowadays, design and architecture are being affected and underwent change with the rapid advancements in technology, economics, politics, society and culture. Architecture has been transforming with the latest developments after the inclusion of computers into design. Integration of design into the computational environment has revolutionized the architecture and new perspectives in architecture have been gained. The history of architecture shows the various technological developments and changes in which the architecture has transformed with time. Therefore, the analysis of integration between technology and the history of the architectural process makes it possible to build a consensus on the idea of how architecture is to proceed. In this study, each period that occurs with the integration of technology into architecture is addressed within historical process. At the same time, changes in architecture via technology are identified as important milestones and predictions with regards to the future of architecture have been determined. Developments and changes in technology and the use of technology in architecture within years are analyzed in charts and graphs comparatively. The historical process of architecture and its transformation via technology are supported with detailed literature review and they are consolidated with the examination of focal points of 20th-century architecture under the titles; parametric design, genetic architecture, simulation, and biomimicry. It is concluded that with the historical research between past and present; the developments in architecture cannot keep up with the advancements in technology and recent developments in technology overshadow the architecture, even the technology decides the direction of architecture. As a result, a scenario is presented with regards to the reach of technology in the future of architecture and the role of the architect.

Keywords: computer technologies, future architecture, scientific developments, transformation

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Authors: Tung-Kuang Wu, Hsing-Pei Hsieh, Ying-Ru Meng

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Special Education in Taiwan has been facing difficulties including shortage of teachers and lack in resources. Some students need to receive special education are thus not identified or admitted. Fortunately, information technologies can be applied to relieve some of the difficulties. For example, on-line multimedia courseware can be used to assist the learning of special education students and take pretty much workload from special education teachers. However, there may exist cognitive variations between students in special or regular educations, which suggests the design of online courseware requires different considerations. This study aims to investigate the difference in focus of attention (FOA) between special and regular education students of primary school in viewing the computer screen. The study is essential as it helps courseware developers in determining where to put learning elements that matter the most on the right position of screen. It may also assist special education specialists to better understand the subtle differences among various subtypes of learning disabilities. This study involves 76 special education students (among them, 39 are students with mental retardation, MR, and 37 are students with learning disabilities, LDs) and 42 regular education students. The participants were asked to view a computer screen showing a picture partitioned into 3 × 3 areas with each area filled with text or icon. The subjects were then instructed to mark on the prior given paper sheets, which are also partitioned into 3 × 3 grids, the areas corresponding to the pictures on the computer screen that they first set their eyes on. The data are then collected and analyzed. Major findings are listed: 1. In both text and icon scenario, significant differences exist in the first preferred FOA between special and regular education students. The first FOA for the former is mainly on area 1 (upper left area, 53.8% / 51.3% for MR / LDs students in text scenario; and 53.8% / 56.8% for MR / LDs students in icons scenario), while the latter on area 5 (middle area, 50.0% and 57.1% in text and icons scenarios). 2. The second most preferred area in text scenario for students with MR and LDs are area 2 (upper-middle, 20.5%) and 5 (middle area, 24.3%). In icons scenario, the results are similar, but lesser in percentage. 3. Students with LDs that show similar preference (either in text or icons scenarios) in FOA to regular education students tend to be of some specific sub-type of learning disabilities. For instance, students with LDs that chose area 5 (middle area, either in text or icon scenario) as their FOA are mostly ones that have reading or writing disability. Also, three (out of 13) subjects in this category, after going through the rediagnosis process, were excluded from being learning disabilities. In summary, the findings suggest when designing multimedia courseware for students with MR and LDs, the essential learning elements should be placed on area 1, 2 and 5. In addition, FOV preference may also potentially be used as an indicator for diagnosing students with LDs.

Keywords: focus of attention, learning disabilities, mental retardation, on-line multimedia courseware, special education

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Authors: Feng Huang, Carlos G. Ochoa, Haitao Zhao

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Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is located at the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. It has great value in socioeconomic development and is internationally recognized as an important lacustrine and wetland ecosystem with abundant biodiversity. Impacted by ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities, especially the regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir since 2003, Poyang Lake has experienced significant water regime evolution, resulting in challenges for the management of water resources and the environment. Quantifying the contribution of hydrologic and topographic changes to water regime alteration is necessary for policymakers to design effective adaption strategies. Long term hydrologic data were collected and the back-propagation neural networks were constructed to simulate the lake water level. The impacts of hydrologic and topographic changes were differentiated through scenario analysis that considered pre-impact and post-impact hydrologic and topographic scenarios. The lake water regime was characterized by hydrologic indicators that describe monthly water level fluctuations, hydrologic features during flood and drought seasons, and frequency and rate of hydrologic variations. The results revealed different contributions of hydrologic and topographic changes to different features of the lake water regime.Noticeable changes were that the water level declined dramatically during the period of reservoir impoundment, and the drought was enhanced during the dry season. The hydrologic and topographic changes exerted a synergistic effect or antagonistic effect on different lake water regime features. The findings provide scientific reference for lacustrine and wetland ecological protection associated with water regime alterations.

Keywords: back-propagation neural network, scenario analysis, water regime, Poyang Lake

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Authors: Petra Gergelova, Sofia Ioannidou, Davide Arcella, Alexandra Tard, Polly E. Boon, Oliver Lindtner, Christina Tlustos, Jean-Charles Leblanc

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Objectives: To assess chronic dietary exposure to food additives in different European countries and population groups. Method and Design: The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) estimates chronic dietary exposure to food additives with the purpose of re-evaluating food additives that were previously authorized in Europe. For this, EFSA uses concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) reported through regular public calls for data by food industry and European countries. These are combined, at individual level, with national food consumption data from the EFSA Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database including data from 33 dietary surveys from 19 European countries and considering six different population groups (infants, toddlers, children, adolescents, adults and the elderly). EFSA ANS Panel estimates dietary exposure for each individual in the EFSA Comprehensive Database by combining the occurrence levels per food group with their corresponding consumption amount per kg body weight. An individual average exposure per day is calculated, resulting in distributions of individual exposures per survey and population group. Based on these distributions, the average and 95th percentile of exposure is calculated per survey and per population group. Dietary exposure is assessed based on two different sets of data: (a) Maximum permitted levels (MPLs) of use set down in the EU legislation (defined as regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario) and (b) usage levels and/or analytical occurrence data (defined as refined exposure assessment scenario). The refined exposure assessment scenario is sub-divided into the brand-loyal consumer scenario and the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario. For the brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the highest reported usage/analytical level for one food group, and at the mean level for the remaining food groups. For the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the mean reported usage/analytical level for all food groups. An additional exposure from sources other than direct addition of food additives (i.e. natural presence, contaminants, and carriers of food additives) is also estimated, as appropriate. Results: Since 2014, this methodology has been applied in about 30 food additive exposure assessments conducted as part of scientific opinions of the EFSA ANS Panel. For example, under the non-brand-loyal scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 5.9 and 8.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. The same estimates under the brand-loyal scenario in toddlers resulted in exposures of 8.1 and 20.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. For the regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 11.9 and 30.3 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. Conclusions: Detailed and up-to-date information on food additive concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) and food consumption data enable the assessment of chronic dietary exposure to food additives to more realistic levels.

Keywords: α-tocopherol, ammonium phosphatides, dietary exposure assessment, European Food Safety Authority, food additives, food consumption data

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Authors: Carolina Silva Ansélmo

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Airports are demand-generating poles that affect the flow of traffic around them. The airport access system must be fast, convenient, and adequately planned, considering its potential users. An airport with good ground access conditions can provide the user with a more satisfactory access experience. When several transport options are available, service providers must understand users' preferences and the expected quality of service. The present study focuses on airport access in a comparative scenario between bus, private vehicle, subway, taxi and urban mobility transport applications to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. The objectives are (i) to identify the factors that influence the choice, (ii) to measure Willingness to Pay (WTP), and (iii) to estimate the market share for each modal. The applied method was Adaptive Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (ACBC) technique using Sawtooth Software. Conjoint analysis, rooted in Utility Theory, is a survey technique that quantifies the customer's perceived utility when choosing alternatives. Assessing user preferences provides insights into their priorities for product or service attributes. An additional advantage of conjoint analysis is its requirement for a smaller sample size compared to other methods. Furthermore, ACBC provides valuable insights into consumers' preferences, willingness to pay, and market dynamics, aiding strategic decision-making to provide a better customer experience, pricing, and market segmentation. In the present research, the ACBC questionnaire had the following variables: (i) access time to the boarding point, (ii) comfort in the vehicle, (iii) number of travelers together, (iv) price, (v) supply power, and (vi) type of vehicle. The case study questionnaire reached 213 valid responses considering the scenario of access from the São Paulo city center to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. As a result, the price and the number of travelers are the most relevant attributes for the sample when choosing airport access. The market share of the selection is mainly urban mobility transport applications, followed by buses, private vehicles, taxis and subways.

Keywords: adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis, ground access to airport, market share, willingness to pay

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Vera Rodrigues, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes

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Air pollution is an environmental and social issue at different spatial scales, especially in a climate change context, with an expected decrease of air quality. Air pollution is a combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions, where wind speed and wind direction play a key role. The urban design (location and structure of buildings and trees) can both promote the air pollutants dispersion as well as promote their retention within the urban area. Today, most of the urban areas are applying measures to adapt to future extreme climatic events. Most of these measures are grounded on nature-based solutions, namely green roofs and green areas. In this sense, studies are required to evaluate how the implementation of these actions will influence the wind flow within the urban area and, consequently, how this will influence air pollutants' dispersion. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of a set of urban morphologies in the wind conditions and in the dispersion of air pollutants, in a built-up area in Portugal. For that, two pollutants were analysed (NOx and PM10) and four scenarios were developed: i) a baseline scenario, which characterizes the current status of the study area, ii) an urban green scenario, which implies the implementation of a green area inside the domain, iii) a green roof scenario, which consists in the implementation of green roofs in a specific area of the domain; iv) a 'grey' scenario, which consists in a scenario with absence of vegetation. For that, two models were used, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the CFD model VADIS (pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere under variable wind conditions). The WRF model was used to initialize the CFD model, while the last was used to perform the set of numerical simulations, on an hourly basis. The implementation of the green urban area promoted a reduction of air pollutants' concentrations, 16% on average, related to the increase in the wind flow, which promotes air pollutants dispersion; while the application of green roofs showed an increase of concentrations (reaching 60% during specific time periods). Overall the results showed that a strategic placement of vegetation in cities has the potential to make an important contribution to increase air pollutants dispersion and so promote the improvement of air quality and sustainability of urban environments.

Keywords: air pollutants dispersion, wind conditions, urban morphologies, road traffic emissions

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Authors: Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh, Amin Dehghani, Majid Mirzaei, Nurulhuda Binti Mohammad Ramli, Adnan Dehghani

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Flood is Malaysia's most common and serious natural disaster. Kelantan River Basin is a tropical basin that experiences a rainy season during North-East Monsoon from November to March. It is also one of the hardest hit areas in Peninsular Malaysia during the heavy monsoon rainfall. Considering the consequences of the flood events, it is essential to develop the flood inundation map as part of the mitigation approach. In this study, the delineation of flood inundation zone in the area of Kelantan River basin using a hydrodynamic model is done by HEC-RAS, QGIS and ArcMap. The streamflow data has been generated with the weather generator based on the observation data. Then, the data is statistically analyzed with the Extreme Value (EV1) method for 2-, 5-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The minimum depth, maximum depth, mean depth, and the standard deviation of all the scenarios, including the OBS, are observed and analyzed. Based on the results, generally, the value of the data increases with the return period for all the scenarios. However, there are certain scenarios that have different results, which not all the data obtained are increasing with the return period. Besides, OBS data resulted in the middle range within Scenario 1 to Scenario 40.

Keywords: flood inundation, kelantan river basin, hydrodynamic model, extreme value analysis

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Authors: I. P. Singh, Ajesh Kumar Kapoor

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Rapid globalization have led to a change towards massive uncontrolled urbanization. Whereas during initial years negligence was there in the name of development, growth and vision toward healthier and better tomorrow. Considering the scenario of developing nations (India) where 70% of their population is living on 30% (urban areas) of their total land available. The need of an hour is to consider the ethical values of each and every person living in urban fringes, whereby the sustainable urban development is promoted which encompasses the move toward low carbon developments. It would help reviving a city lung space and reducing carbon credits as per Kyoto Protocol 1991. This paper would provide an overview about Indian scenario of current urban areas, ongoing developments, series of regulatory policy measures, materials innovative use and policies framed and opted for low carbon development.

Keywords: urban sustainability, indicators for sustainable development, low carbon development, Indian Policies toward low carbon development

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Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

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Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining

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Authors: Utkrash Sarkar, Vineet Tiwari, Shailendra Singh

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The development of social media has brought about a tremendous change in the marketing scenario for every industry. It has become a new hybrid element of the promotional mix in the marketing segment. This paper tries to show some light on the fact that in today’s scenario social media is a platform that everyone should take in consideration for any type of marketing campaign. In this paper, we have formulated a questionnaire, and through it, we have tried to gather information from the respondents that how social media is influencing their decision when they choose their travel destinations for tourism purpose, does it help in creating any awareness about places which they don’t have an idea? As a result, guiding the state government and providing them with a marketing strategy that how they can use social media in a better manner so that they could help increase their revenue and can make people aware about the places of the state which the target audience can plan to go for their next vacation.

Keywords: social media, marketing, information, decision making

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Authors: Martha Serrano-Arias, Martha Frías-Armenta

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Significant results have been found both supporting universality of emotion recognition and cultural background influence. Thus, the aim of this research was to test a Mexican version of the MTSI in different cultures to find differences in their performance. The MTSI-Mx assesses through a scenario approach were subjects must evaluate real persons. Two target persons were used for the construction, a man (FS) and a woman (AD). The items were grouped in four variables: Picture, Video, and FS and AD scenarios. The test was applied to 201 students from Mexico and Germany. T-test for picture and FS scenario show no significance. Video and AD had a significance at the 5% level. Results show slight differences between cultures, although a more comprehensive research is needed to conclude which culture can perform better in this kind of assessments.

Keywords: emotion recognition, MTSI, social intelligence, transcultural study

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Authors: Aparna Bhat, Rajeshwari Hegde

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Renewable energy sources also called non-conventional energy sources that are continuously replenished by natural processes. For example, solar energy, wind energy, bio-energy- bio-fuels grown sustain ably), hydropower etc., are some of the examples of renewable energy sources. A renewable energy system converts the energy found in sunlight, wind, falling-water, sea-waves, geothermal heat, or biomass into a form, we can use such as heat or electricity. Most of the renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from sun and wind and can never be exhausted, and therefore they are called renewable. This paper presents a review about conventional and renewable energy scenario of India. The paper also presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India and implementing renewable for the future is also been presented.

Keywords: solar energy, renewabe energy, wind energy, bio-diesel, biomass, feedin

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Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

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In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

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Authors: Sulayman Adrees Mohammed, Ahmed Faraj Abd Alsameea

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The ongoing hindrance for Libyan oil and gas companies is the persistent challenge of eradicating maintenance program failures that result in exorbitant costs and production setbacks. Accordingly, this research is prompted to introduce the concept of lean philosophy in maintenance, which aims to eliminate waste and enhance productivity in maintenance procedures through the identification and differentiation of value-adding (VA) and non-value-adding (NVA) activities. The purpose of this paper was to explore and describe the benefits that can be gained by adopting the Lean philosophy towards the enhancement of maintenance programs' efficiency from theoretical perspectives. The oil industry maintenance community in Libya now has an introduced tool by which they can effectively evaluate their maintenance program functionality and reduce the areas of non-value added activities within maintenance, thereby enhancing the availability of the equipment and the capacity of the oil and gas facilities.

Keywords: efficiency, lean philosophy, Libyan oil and gas scenario, maintenance programs

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Authors: Ayalkibet Mekonnen, Adane Abebe

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In hydrological cycle there are many water-related human interventions that modify the natural systems. Rainwater harvesting is one such intervention that involves harnessing of water in the upstream. Water harvesting used in upstream prevents water runoff on downstream mainly disturbance on biodiversity and ecosystems. The main objectives of the study are to assess the effects of water harvesting technologies on downstream water availability in the Woreda. To address the above problem, SWAT model, cost-benefit ratio and optimal control approach was used to analyse the hydrological and socioeconomic impact and tradeoffs on water availability of the community, respectively. The downstream impacts of increasing water consumption in the upstream rain-fed areas of the Bilate and Shala Catchment are simulated using the semi-distributed SWAT model. The two land use scenarios tested at sub basin levels (1) conventional land use represents the current land use practice (Agri-CON) and (2) in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), improving soil water availability through rainwater harvesting land use scenario. The simulated water balance results showed that the highest peak mean monthly direct flow obtained from Agri-CON land use (127.1 m3/ha), followed by Agri-IRWH land use (11.5 mm) and LULC 2005 (90.1 m3/ha). The Agri-IRWH scenario reduced direct flow by 10% compared to Agri-CON and more groundwater flow contributed by Agri-IRWH (190 m3/ha) than Agri-CON (125 m3/ha). The overall result suggests that the water yield of the Woreda may not be negatively affected by the Agri-IRWH land use scenario. The technology in the Woreda benefited positively having an average benefit cost ratio of 4.2. Water harvesting for domestic use was not optimal that the value of the water per demand harvested was less than the amount of water needed. Storage tanks, series of check dams, gravel filled dams are an alternative solutions for water harvesting.

Keywords: water harvesting, SWAT model, land use scenario, Agri-CON, Agri-IRWH, trade off, benefit cost ratio

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Authors: Huan Li, Jianchun Li, Yancheng Li, Yang Yu

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As a seismic protection method of civil and engineering structures, weakening and damping is effective during the elastic region, while it somehow leads to the early yielding of the entire structure accompanying with large excursions and permanent deformations. Adaptive negative stiffness device is attractive for realizing yielding property without changing the stiffness of the primary structure. In this paper, a new modification negative stiffness device (MNSD) with constant force-displacement characteristic is proposed by combining a magnetic negative stiffness spring, a piecewise linear positive spring and a passive damper with a certain adaptive stiffness device. The proposed passive control MNSD preserves no effect under small excitation. When the displacement amplitude increases beyond the pre-defined yielding point, the force-displacement characteristics of the system with MNSD will keep constant. The seismic protection effect of the MNSD is evaluated by employing it to a single-degree-of-freedom system under sinusoidal excitation, and real earthquake waves. By comparative analysis, the system with MNSD performs better on reducing acceleration and displacement response under different displacement amplitudes than the scenario without it and the scenario with unmodified certain adaptive stiffness device.

Keywords: negative stiffness, adaptive stiffness, weakening and yielding, constant force-displacement characteristic

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Authors: Fabiola Xavier Leal, Lara Campanharo, Sueli Aparecida Rodrigues Lucas

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The phenomenon of judicialization in health policy brings with it a great deal of problematization, but in general, it means that some issues that were previously solved by traditional political bodies are being decided by the Judiciary bodies. It is, therefore, a controversial topic that has generated many reflections both in the academic and political fields, considering that not only a dispute of public funds is at stake, but also the debate on access to social rights provided for in the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988 and in the various public policies, such as healthcare. With regard to the phenomenon in the Mental Health Policy focusing on people who use drugs, the disputes that permeate this scenario are evident: moral, cultural, sanitary, economic, psychological aspects. There are also the individual and collective dimensions of suffering. And in this process, we all question: What is the role of the Brazilian State in this matter? In this context, another question that needs to be answered is the amount spent on this procedure in the state of Espírito Santo (ES), Brazil (in the last 04 years, around R$121,978,591.44 were paid only for compulsory hospitalization of individuals) in the field in question, which is the financing of the services of the Psychosocial Care Network (RAPS). Therefore, this article aims to problematize the phenomenon of judicialization in Mental Health Policy through the compulsory hospitalization of people who use drugs in Espírito Santo (ES). We proposed a study that sought to understand how this has been occurring and making an impact on the provision of RAPS services in the Espírito Santo scenario. Therefore, the general objective of this study is to analyze the expenses with compulsory hospitalizations for drug use carried out by the State Health Department (SESA) between 2014 and 2019, in which we will seek to identify its destination and the impact of these actions on public health policy. For the purposes of this article, we will present the preliminary data of this study, such as the amount spent by the state and the receiving institutions. For data collection, the following data sources were used: documents available publicly on the Transparency Portal (payments made per year, institutions that received, subjects hospitalized, period and the amount of the daily rates paid); as well as the processes generated by SESA through its own system - ONBASE. For qualitative analysis, content analysis was used; and for quantitative analysis, descriptive statistics was used. Thus, we seek to problematize the issue of judicialization for compulsory hospitalizations, considering the current situation in which this resource has been widely requested to legitimize the war on drugs. This scenario highlights the moral-legal discourse, pointing out strategies through the control of bodies and through faith as an alternative.

Keywords: compulsory hospitalization, drugs, judicialization, mental health

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: climate change, Lars WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Eylem G. Cengiz, Ersin Çilek, Gözde Başkaya, Havva Nur Taş

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It is possible to define the abuse and neglect of the child as a social problem. Such adverse experiences of the child are witnessed by wider social circles as well as his or her immediate environment. The most effective institution among these social circles is the school. The awareness of teachers, administrators, and even auxiliary personnel on this issue can act as a protective and preventive buffer because teachers have the opportunity to be with children every day and constantly observe them; therefore, they can notice the physical and mental changes in students. Furthermore, school administrators have an undeniable role in recognizing and responding to the risk of neglect and abuse. This study aims to evaluate the awareness of school administrators on the risk factors, clues, and ways of intervention towards abuse and neglect through the scenarios given to them. Data were collected from 37 primary, secondary, and high school administrators working in various provinces of Turkey through descriptive and scenario-based questions to determine their general knowledge of the concepts of neglect and abuse and their general tendencies towards practice. Descriptive questions were evaluated with content analysis, and scenario-based questions were evaluated with numerical qualitative data analysis. Concepts and themes were tried to be reached by content analysis from the descriptive data collected. When the results are evaluated in general, it is striking that the concept of child abuse means only sexual abuse for some school administrators. There is an important uncertainty for school administrators in the content of the idea of neglect. When the views on the causes of neglect and abuse are examined, the family factor was seen as the primary source of both neglect and abuse. In addition, among the prevention strategies applied by school administrators, intervention for the family -interviewing and informing- was recommended by only 9 (29%) out of 31 administrators. When the responses to the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse scenarios are examined, it is revealed that the administrators generally realize the abuse but fail to develop an appropriate/whole intervention method. The research results show that school administrators' awareness should be increased. Although administrators have sensitivity towards children, they should be empowered to recognize all types of neglect and abuse and develop appropriate intervention tools.

Keywords: assessment child abuse and neglect, child abuse, child neglect, school administrators

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

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Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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Authors: Michael Mertel, Lars Friedrich, Kai-Ingo Voigt

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Based on principle-agent theory, an information asymmetry exists in the traditional donation process. Consumers cannot comprehend whether nonprofit organizations (NPOs) use raised funds according to the designated cause after the transaction took place (hidden action). Therefore, charity organizations have tried to appear transparent and gain trust by using the same marketing instruments for decades (e.g., releasing project success reports). However, none of these measures can guarantee consumers that charities will use their donations for the purpose. With awareness of misuse of donations rising due to the Ukraine conflict (e.g., funding crime), consumers are increasingly concerned about the destination of their charitable purposes. Therefore, innovative charities like the Human Rights Foundation have started to offer donations via blockchain. Blockchain technology has the potential to establish profound trust and transparency in the donation process: Consumers can publicly track the progress of their donation at any time after deciding to donate. This ensures that the charity is not using donations against its original intent. Hence, the aim is to investigate the effect of blockchain-enabled transactions on the willingness to donate. Sample and Design: To investigate consumers' behavior, we use a scenario-based experiment. After removing participants (e.g., due to failed attention checks), 3192 potential donors participated (47.9% female, 62.4% bachelor or above). Procedure: We randomly assigned the participants to one of two scenarios. In all conditions, the participants read a scenario about a fictive charity organization called "Helper NPO." Afterward, the participants answered questions regarding their perception of the charity. Manipulation: The first scenario (n = 1405) represents a typical donation process, where consumers donate money without any option to track and trace. The second scenario (n = 1787) represents a donation process via blockchain, where consumers can track and trace their donations respectively. Using t-statistics, the findings demonstrate a positive effect of donating via blockchain on participants’ willingness to donate (mean difference = 0.667, p < .001, Cohen’s d effect size = 0.482). A mediation analysis shows significant effects for the mediation of transparency (Estimate = 0.199, p < .001), trust (Estimate = 0.144, p < .001), and transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.158, p < .001). The total effect of blockchain usage on participants’ willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.690, p < .001) consists of the direct effect (Estimate = 0.189, p < .001) and the indirect effects of transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.501, p < .001). Furthermore, consumers' affinity for technology moderates the direct effect of blockchain usage on participants' willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.150, p < .001). Donating via blockchain is a promising way for charities to engage consumers for several reasons: (1) Charities can emphasize trust and transparency in their advertising campaigns. (2) Established charities can target new customer segments by specifically engaging technology-affine consumers in the future. (3) Charities can raise international funds without previous barriers (e.g., setting up bank accounts). Nevertheless, increased transparency can also backfire (e.g., disclosure of costs). Such cases require further research.

Keywords: blockchain, social sector, transparency, trust

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Authors: Frederick Huie, Lauren Fusfeld, William Burchenal, Scott Howell, Alyssa McVey, Thomas F. Goss

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Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease characterized by memory loss and cognitive decline that presents a substantial economic burden for patients and health insurers in the US. This study evaluates the payer budget impact of the DISCERN™ test in the diagnosis and management of patients with symptoms of dementia evaluated for AD. DISCERN™ comprises three assays that assess critical factors related to AD that regulate memory, formation of synaptic connections among neurons, and levels of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain and can provide a quicker, more accurate diagnosis than tests in the current diagnostic pathway (CDP). An Excel-based model with a three-year horizon was developed to assess the budget impact of DISCERN™ compared with CDP in a Medicare Advantage plan with 1M beneficiaries. Model parameters were identified through a literature review and were verified through consultation with clinicians experienced in diagnosis and management of AD. The model assesses direct medical costs/savings for patients based on the following categories: •Diagnosis: costs of diagnosis using DISCERN™ and CDP. •False Negative (FN) diagnosis: incremental cost of care avoidable with a correct AD diagnosis and appropriately directed medication. •True Positive (TP) diagnosis: AD medication costs; cost from a later TP diagnosis with the CDP versus DISCERN™ in the year of diagnosis, and savings from the delay in AD progression due to appropriate AD medication in patients who are correctly diagnosed after a FN diagnosis.•False Positive (FP) diagnosis: cost of AD medication for patients who do not have AD. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of varying key clinical and cost parameters ±10%. An additional scenario analysis was developed to evaluate the impact of individual inputs. In the base scenario, DISCERN™ is estimated to decrease costs by $4.75M over three years, equating to approximately $63.11 saved per test per year for a cohort followed over three years. While the diagnosis cost is higher with DISCERN™ than with CDP modalities, this cost is offset by the higher overall costs associated with CDP due to the longer time needed to receive a TP diagnosis and the larger number of patients who receive a FN diagnosis and progress more rapidly than if they had received appropriate AD medication. The sensitivity analysis shows that the three parameters with the greatest impact on savings are: reduced sensitivity of DISCERN™, improved sensitivity of the CDP, and a reduction in the percentage of disease progression that is avoided with appropriate AD medication. A scenario analysis in which DISCERN™ reduces the utilization for patients of computed tomography from 21% in the base case to 16%, magnetic resonance imaging from 37% to 27% and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker testing, positive emission tomography, electroencephalograms, and polysomnography testing from 4%, 5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, in the base case to 0%, results in an overall three-year net savings of $14.5M. DISCERN™ improves the rate of accurate, definitive diagnosis of AD earlier in the disease and may generate savings for Medicare Advantage plans.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, budget, dementia, diagnosis.

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Authors: M. H. Ahmadi, A. Mortazavi, H. Zarei

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Several authors have described the main mechanism of formation of cracks in the segment lining during the construction of tunnels with tunnel boring machines. A comprehensive analysis of segmental lining joints may help to guarantee a safe construction during Tunneling and serviceable stages. The most frequent types of segment damage are caused by a condition of uneven segment matching due to contact deficiencies. This paper investigated the interaction mechanism of precast concrete lining joints in tunnels. The Discrete Element Method (DEM) was used to analyze a typical segmental lining model consisting of six segment rings. In the analyses, typical segmental lining design parameters of the Ghomrood water conveyance tunnel, Iran were employed in the study. In the conducted analysis, the worst-case scenario of loading faced during the boring of Ghomrood tunnel was considered. This was associated with the existence of a crushed zone dipping at 75 degree at the location of the key segment. In the analysis, moreover, the effect of changes in horizontal stress ratio on the loads on the segment was assessed. The boundary condition associated with K (ratio of the horizontal to the vertical stress) values of 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 were applied to the model and separate analysis was conducted for each case. Important parameters such as stress, moments, and displacements were measured at joint locations and the surrounding rock. Accordingly, the segment joint interactions were assessed and analyzed. Moreover, rock mass properties of the Ghomrood in Ghom were adopted. In this study, the load acting on segments joints are included a crushed zone stratum force that intersect tunnel with 75 slopes in the location of the key segment, gravity force of segments and earth pressures. A numerical investigation was used for different coefficients of stress concentration of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and different geological conditions of saturated crushed zone under the critical scenario. The numerical results also demonstrate that maximum bending moments in longitudinal joints occurred for crushed zone with the weaken strengths (Sandstone). Besides that, increasing the load in segment-stratum interfaces affected radial stress in longitudinal joints and finally the opening of joints occurred.

Keywords: joint, interface, segment, contact

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