Search results for: route risk estimation

Authors: Emad Al-Abdallat, Faris G. Bakri, Azmi Mahafza, Rayyan Al Ali, Nidaa Ababneh, Ahmed Idhair

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Background: Morgues are high-risk areas for the spread of infection from the cadavers to the staff during the postmortem examination. Infection can spread from corpses to workers by the airborne route, by direct contact, or from needle and sharp object injuries. Objective: Knowledge about the prevalence of these infections among autopsies is prudent to appreciate any risk of transmission and to further enforce safety measures. Method: A total of 242 autopsies were tested. Age ranged from 3 days to 94 years (median 75.5 years, mean 45.3 (21.9 ± SD)). There were 172 (71%) males. Results: The cause of death was considered natural in 137 (56.6%) cases, accidental in 89 (36.8%), homicidal in 9 (3.7%), suicidal in 4 (1.7%), and unknown in 3 (1.2%). Hepatitis B surface antigen was positive in 5 (2.1%) cases. Hepatitis C virus antibody was detected in 5 (2.1%) cases and the hepatitis C virus polymerase chain reaction was positive in 2 of them (0.8%). HIV antibody was not detected in any of the cases. Conclusions: Autopsies can be associated with exposure to blood borne viruses. Autopsies performed during the study period were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen, hepatitis C virus antibody, and human immunodeficiency virus antibody. Positive tests were subsequently confirmed by polymerase chain reaction. There is low prevalence of infections with these viruses in our autopsy cases. However, the risk of transmission remains a threat. Healthcare workers in the forensic departments should adhere to standard precautions.

Keywords: autopsy, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, Jordan

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Authors: Zdenek Silar, Martin Dobrovolny

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This article deals with the obstacle detection on a railway crossing (clearance detection). Detection is based on the optical flow estimation and classification of the flow vectors by K-means clustering algorithm. For classification of passing vehicles is used optical flow direction determination. The optical flow estimation is based on a modified Lucas-Kanade method.

Keywords: background estimation, direction of optical flow, K-means clustering, objects detection, railway crossing monitoring, velocity vectors

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Authors: James Brown, Stella Kortekaas, Ian Finnie, George Zhang, Christine Devine, Neil Healy

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The use of GIS as an analysis tool for engineering decision making is now best practice in the offshore industry. GIS enables multidisciplinary data integration, analysis and visualisation which allows the presentation of large and intricate datasets in a simple map-interface accessible to all project stakeholders. Presenting integrated geoscience and geotechnical data in GIS enables decision makers to be well-informed. This paper is a successful case study of how GIS spatial analysis techniques were applied to help select the most favourable pipeline route. Routing a pipeline through any natural environment has numerous obstacles, whether they be topographical, geological, engineering or financial. Where the pipeline is subjected to external hydrostatic water pressure and is carrying pressurised hydrocarbons, the requirement to safely route the pipeline through hazardous terrain becomes absolutely paramount. This study illustrates how the application of modern, GIS-based pipeline routing techniques enabled the identification of a single most-favourable pipeline route crossing of a challenging seabed terrain. Conventional approaches to pipeline route determination focus on manual avoidance of primary constraints whilst endeavouring to minimise route length. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective and is liable to bias towards the discipline and expertise that is involved in the routing process. For very short routes traversing benign seabed topography in shallow water this approach may be sufficient, but for deepwater geohazardous sites, the need for an automated, multi-criteria, and quantitative approach is essential. This study combined multiple routing constraints using modern least-cost-routing algorithms deployed in GIS, hitherto unachievable with conventional approaches. The least-cost-routing procedure begins with the assignment of geocost across the study area. Geocost is defined as a numerical penalty score representing hazard posed by each routing constraint (e.g. slope angle, rugosity, vulnerability to debris flows) to the pipeline. All geocosted routing constraints are combined to generate a composite geocost map that is used to compute the least geocost route between two defined terminals. The analyses were applied to select the most favourable pipeline route for a potential gas development in deep water. The study area is geologically complex with a series of incised, potentially active, canyons carved into a steep escarpment, with evidence of extensive debris flows. A similar debris flow in the future could cause significant damage to a poorly-placed pipeline. Protruding inter-canyon spurs offer lower-gradient options for ascending an escarpment but the vulnerability of periodic failure of these spurs is not well understood. Close collaboration between geoscientists, pipeline engineers, geotechnical engineers and of course the gas export pipeline operator guided the analyses and assignment of geocosts. Shorter route length, less severe slope angles, and geohazard avoidance were the primary drivers in identifying the most favourable route.

Keywords: geocost, geohazard, pipeline route determination, pipeline route optimisation, spatial analysis

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

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Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Sung Hyun You, Jeong Hoon Kim, Dae Ki Kim, Choon Ki Ahn

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In this paper, we proposed a new strategy for estimating indoor temperature based on the modified resistance capacitance (R–C) network thermal dynamic model. Using minimum variance finite impulse response (FIR) filter, accurate indoor temperature estimation can be achieved. Our study is clarified by the experimental validation of the proposed indoor temperature estimation method. This experiment scenario environment is composed of a demand response (DR) server and home energy management system (HEMS) in a test bed.

Keywords: energy consumption, resistance-capacitance network model, demand response, finite impulse response filter

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Nizar Tayem, AbuMuhammad Moinuddeen, Ahmed A. Hussain, Redha M. Radaydeh

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This research paper introduces an approach for estimating the direction of arrival (DOA) of multiple RF noncoherent sources in a uniform linear array (ULA). The proposed method utilizes a Capon-like estimation algorithm and incorporates LU decomposition to enhance the accuracy of DOA estimation while significantly reducing computational complexity compared to existing methods like the Capon method. Notably, the proposed method does not require prior knowledge of the number of sources. To validate its effectiveness, the proposed method undergoes validation through both software simulations and practical experimentation on a prototype testbed constructed using a software-defined radio (SDR) platform and GNU Radio software. The results obtained from MATLAB simulations and real-time experiments provide compelling evidence of the proposed method's efficacy.

Keywords: DOA estimation, real-time validation, software defined radio, computational complexity, Capon's method, GNU radio

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

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Intelligent Transportation System is an integrated application of communication, control and monitoring and display process technologies for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. In fact, the development of a country and the progress of its transportation system are complementary to each other. Urban traffic has been growing vigorously due to population growth as well as escalation of vehicle ownership causing congestion, delays, pollution, accidents, high-energy consumption and low productivity of resources. The development and management of urban transport in developing countries like India however, is at tryout stage with very few accumulations. Under the umbrella of ITS, urban corridor management strategy have proven to be one of the most successful system in accomplishing these objectives. The present study interprets and figures out the performance of the 27.4 km long Urban Bus route having six intersections, five flyovers and 29 bus stops that covers significant area of the city by causality analysis. Performance interpretations incorporate Passenger Boarding and Alighting, Dwell time, Distance between Bus Stops and Total trip time taken by bus on selected urban route.

Keywords: congestion, dwell time, passengers boarding alighting, travel time

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Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu

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The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.

Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Taonga Temwani Chibaka

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This qualitative research study was conducted to identify the common risk factors that affect the construction industry in Malawi in the building and infrastructure (civil works) projects. The study then evaluates the possible risk responses that are done to mitigate the various risk factors that were identified. I addition the research also established the barriers to risk management implementation with lastly mapping out as where the identified risk factors fall on which stage of the project and then also map out the knowledge areas that need to be worked on the cases on Malawian construction industry in order to mitigate most of the identified risk factors. The study involved the interviewing the professionals from the construction industry in Malawi where insights and ideas were collected, analysed and interpreted. The key study findings show that risks related to clients group are perceived as most critical followed by the contractor related, consultant related and then external group related factors respectively where preventive measures are the most applied risk response technique where the aim to avoid most of the risk factors from happening. Most of the risk factors identified were internal risks and in managerial category which suggested that risk planning was to be emphasized at pre-contract stage to minimize these risks since a bigger percentage of the risk factors were mapped out at implementation stage. Furthermore, barriers to risk management were identified and the key barriers were lack of awareness; lack of knowledge; lack of formal policies in place; regarded as costly and limited time which resulted in proposing that regulating authorities to purposefully introduce intense training on risk management to make known of this new knowledge area. The study then recommends that organisation should formally implement risk management where policies should be introduced to enforce all parties to undertake this. Risk planning was regarded as paramount and this to be done from pre-contract phase so as to mitigate 80% of the risk factors. Finally, training should be done on all project management knowledge areas.

Keywords: risk management, risk factors, risks, malawi

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Authors: V. Geza, J. Vencels, G. Zageris, S. Pavlovs

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One of the most perspective methods to produce SoG-Si is refinement via metallurgical route. The most critical part of this route is refinement from boron and phosphorus. Therefore, a new approach could address this problem. We propose an approach of creating surface waves on silicon melt’s surface in order to enlarge its area and accelerate removal of boron via chemical reactions and evaporation of phosphorus. A two dimensional numerical model is created which includes coupling of electromagnetic and fluid dynamic simulations with free surface dynamics. First results show behaviour similar to experimental results from literature.

Keywords: numerical modelling, silicon refinement, surface waves, VOF method

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Authors: Kudu Dangana

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The occurrences of disaster often call for the support of both government and non-government organization. Consequently, disaster relief remains extremely important in disaster management. However, this approach alone does not proactively address the need to adduce the human and environment impacts of future disasters. Recent thinking in the area of disaster management is indicative of the need for a new paradigm that focuses on reducing the risk of disasters with the involvement and participation of communities. This paper reviews the need for communities to place more emphasis on a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction. This approach involves risk assessment, risk reduction, early warning and disaster preparedness in order to effectively address the reduction of social, economic, and environmental costs of disasters nationally and at the global level.

Keywords: disaster, early, management, warning, relief, risk vulnerability

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Authors: Seyedeh Mandan Kazzazi, Elena Kranioti

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In the field of human osteology, sex estimation is an important step in developing biological profile. There are a number of methods that can be used to estimate the sex of human remains varying from visual assessments to metric analysis of sexually dimorphic traits. Teeth are one of the most durable physical elements in human body that can be used for this purpose. The present study investigated the utility of cervical measurements for sex estimation through discriminant analysis. The permanent molar teeth of 75 skeletons (28 females and 52 males) from Hasanlu site in North-western Iran were studied. Cervical mesiodistal and buccolingual measurements were taken from both maxillary and mandibular first and second molars. Discriminant analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of each diameter in assessing sex. The results showed that males had statistically larger teeth than females for maxillary and mandibular molars and both measurements (P < 0.05). The range of classification rate was from (75.7% to 85.5%) for the original and cross-validated data. The most dimorphic teeth were maxillary and mandibular second molars providing 85.5% and 83.3% correct classification rate respectively. The data generated from the present study suggested that cervical mesiodistal and buccolingual measurements of the molar teeth can be useful and reliable for sex estimation in Iranian archaeological populations.

Keywords: cervical measurements, Hasanlu, premolars, sex estimation

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Pedram Hatami Abdullah, M. Fakhrur Razi Ahmad Faizul

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With the issuance of Malaysian National Annex 2017 as a part of MS EN 1998-1:2015, the seismic mapping of Malaysian Peninsular including Sabah and Sarawak has undergone some changes in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value. The revision to the PGA has raised a concern on the safety of oil and gas onshore structures as these structures were not designed to accommodate the new PGA values which are much higher than the previous values used in the original design. In view of the high numbers of structures and buildings to be re-assessed, a risk assessment methodology has been developed to prioritize and rank the assets in terms of their criticality against the new seismic loading. To-date such risk assessment method for oil and gas onshore structures is lacking, and it is the main intention of this technical paper to share the risk assessment methodology and risk elements scoring finalized via Delphi Method. The finalized methodology and the values used to rank the risk elements have been established based on years of relevant experience on the subject matter and based on a series of rigorous discussions with professionals in the industry. The risk scoring is mapped against the risk matrix (i.e., the LOF versus COF) and hence, the overall risk for the assets can be obtained. The overall risk can be used to prioritize and optimize integrity assessment, repair and strengthening work against the new seismic mapping of the country.

Keywords: methodology, PGA, risk, seismic

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Authors: Ammara Mehmood, Aneela Zameer, Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja, Muhammad Faisal Fateh

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In this work, the strength of bio-inspired computational intelligence based technique is exploited for parameter estimation for the periodic signals using Continuous Differential Evolution (CDE) by defining an error function in the mean square sense. Multidimensional and nonlinear nature of the problem emerging in sinusoidal signal models along with noise makes it a challenging optimization task, which is dealt with robustness and effectiveness of CDE to ensure convergence and avoid trapping in local minima. In the proposed scheme of Continuous Differential Evolution based Signal Parameter Estimation (CDESPE), unknown adjustable weights of the signal system identification model are optimized utilizing CDE algorithm. The performance of CDESPE model is validated through statistics based various performance indices on a sufficiently large number of runs in terms of estimation error, mean squared error and Thiel’s inequality coefficient. Efficacy of CDESPE is examined by comparison with the actual parameters of the system, Genetic Algorithm based outcomes and from various deterministic approaches at different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) levels.

Keywords: parameter estimation, bio-inspired computing, continuous differential evolution (CDE), periodic signals

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah

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In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.

Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Lassaad Smirani

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In this paper we propose a Neurosymbolic Learning System (NLS) as a channel estimator for Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A) uplink. The proposed system main idea based on Neural Network has modules capable of performing bidirectional information transfer between symbolic module and connectionist module. We demonstrate various strengths of the NLS especially the ability to integrate theoretical knowledge (rules) and experiential knowledge (examples), and to make an initial knowledge base (rules) converted into a connectionist network. Also to use empirical knowledge witch by learning will have the ability to revise the theoretical knowledge and acquire new one and explain it, and finally the ability to improve the performance of symbolic or connectionist systems. Compared with conventional SC-FDMA channel estimation systems, The performance of NLS in terms of complexity and quality is confirmed by theoretical analysis and simulation and shows that this system can make the channel estimation accuracy improved and bit error rate decreased.

Keywords: channel estimation, SC-FDMA, neural network, hybrid system, BER, LTE-A

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Authors: Hasik Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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Nowadays, automatic fare collection (AFC) system is widely used in many countries. However, smart card data from many of cities does not contain alighting information which is necessary to build OD matrices. Therefore, in order to utilize smart card data, destinations of passengers should be estimated. In this paper, kernel density estimation was used to forecast probabilities of alighting stations of bus passengers and applied to smart card data in Seoul, Korea which contains boarding and alighting information. This method was also validated with actual data. In some cases, stochastic method was more accurate than deterministic method. Therefore, it is sufficiently accurate to be used to build OD matrices.

Keywords: destination estimation, Kernel density estimation, smart card data, validation

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao

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This research analyzes the effect of credit risk management practices of commercial banks in India and the relationship with their non-performing assets (NPAs). Required data on credit risk performance was collected through a survey questionnaire from top risk officers of 38 Indian banks. NPA data (period from 2012 to 2016) was collected from Prowess database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was assessed utilizing cross sectional regression method. As expected, the results indicate a negative significant relationship between credit risk management in India banks and their NPA growth. The research has implications for banks given the high level of losses in India and other economies as well, and the implementation of Basel III standards by the central banks. This research would be an evidence on credit risk performance and its relationship with the level of non-performing assets (NPAs) in Indian banks.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, banks, Non-Performing Assets (NPAs)

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Authors: Witthaya Mekhum, Waleerak Sittisom

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This research investigated the effect on occupational health safety and environment at work from metal handicraft using Rattanakosin local wisdom focusing on pollution, accidents, and injuries from work. The sample group in this study included 48 metal handicraft workers in 5 communities by using questionnaires and interview to collect data. The evaluation form TISI 18001 was used to analyze job safety analysis (JSA). The results showed that risk at work reduced after applying the developed model. Banbu Community produces alloy bowl rubbed with stone. The high risk process is melting and hitting process. Before the application, the work risk was 82.71%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 50.61%. Banbart Community produces monk’s food bowl. The high risk process is blow pipe welding. Before the application, the work risk was 93.59%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 48.14%. Bannoen Community produces circle gong. The high risk process is milling process. Before the application, the work risk was 85.18%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 46.91%. Teethong Community produces gold leaf. The high risk process is hitting and spreading process. Before the application, the work risk was 86.42%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 64.19%. Ban Changthong Community produces gold ornament. The high risk process is gold melting process. Before the application, the work risk was 67.90%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 37.03%. It can be concluded that with the application of the developed model, the work risk of 5 communities was reduced in the 3 main groups: (1) Work illness reduced by 16.77%; (2) Pollution from work reduced by 10.31%; (3) Accidents and injuries from work reduced by 15.62%.

Keywords: occupational health, safety, local wisdom, Rattanakosin

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Authors: Kalu Ram Meena, Aditi Kar Gangopadhyay, Satrajit Mandal

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Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variances are known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the method of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

Keywords: estimation after selection, Brewster-Zidek technique, estimators, selected populations

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Authors: Ludovic Fabre, Paola Melani, Patrick Lemaire

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to test whether and how emotions influence drone operators in estimation skills. The empirical study was run in the context of numerical estimation. Participants saw a two-digit number together with a collection of cars. They had to indicate whether the stimuli collection was larger or smaller than the number. The two-digit numbers ranged from 12 to 27, and collections included 3-36 cars. The presentation of the collections was dynamic (each car moved 30 deg. per second on the right). Half the collections were smaller collections (including fewer than 20 cars), and the other collections were larger collections (i.e., more than 20 cars). Splits between the number of cars in a collection and the two-digit number were either small (± 1 or 2 units; e.g., the collection included 17 cars and the two-digit number was 19) or larger (± 8 or 9 units; e.g., 17 cars and '9'). Half the collections included more items (and half fewer items) than the number indicated by the two-digit number. Before and after each trial, participants saw an image inducing negative emotions (e.g., mutilations) or neutral emotions (e.g., candle) selected from International Affective Picture System (IAPS). At the end of each trial, participants had to say if the second picture was the same as or different from the first. Results showed different effects of emotions on RTs and percent errors. Participants’ performance was modulated by emotions. They were slower on negative trials compared to the neutral trials, especially on the most difficult items. They errored more on small-split than on large-split problems. Moreover, participants highly overestimated the number of cars when in a negative emotional state. These findings suggest that emotions influence numerical estimation, that effects of emotion in estimation interact with stimuli characteristics. They have important implications for understanding the role of emotions on estimation skills, and more generally, on how emotions influence cognition.

Keywords: drone operators, emotion, numerical estimation, arithmetic

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