Search results for: risk mitigation

Authors: Bahareh Zare

Abstract:

The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: V. Davaakhuu, D. Tserendagva, D. Amarsaikhan, T. Altanstetseg

Abstract:

In this study we aimed to detect main risk factors for diabetes in Mongolia and obtain data we used survey modified questionnaire. Survey data were obtained from 634 valid nurses (day work nurses-317, shift work nurses-317). Participants who were pregnant, less than 20 years old and no check for fasting glucose level were excluded from the survey in order to determine the risk factors of diabetes. Our study result shows the main risk factors of diabetes were physical inactivity, overweight and obesity, alcohol and tobacco use and lack of vegetable and fruit consumption. Peripheral blood glucose level was normal in subjects with BMI 26.28 ± 0.56, but 20 % of the subjects with normal blood glucose level were obese. Blood glucose level was higher in subjects with BMI 28.63 ± 2.32 and 36 % of them were obese. According to our study results, 3.62% of the surveyed population were identified having no diabetes risk factors, 52.3% were at risk, 28.8% were in higher risk for diabetes by the WHO criteria. In general, the prevalence of blood glucose were especially higher in shift work nurses.

Keywords: day work nurses, shift work nurses, BMI, WHR

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Min-Ming Wen

Abstract:

Applying the U.S. lodging and tourism industry as a research sample, we examine the relation between the corporate governance structure and managerial risk-taking behavior. In light of the global financial crisis, the importance of effective governance structures is essential in protecting claimholder interests. We propose a governance structure consisting of shareholder governance measured by anti-takeover provisions to examine whether the governance structure has a significant impact on managerial risk-taking behaviors in terms of the investment policy. We will use capital expenditure and R&D investment to measure managerial risk-taking and the firm’s investment policy. In addition, we will examine whether the effects of governance on investment policy differ significantly between speculative and investment-grade firms.

Keywords: corporate governance, risk-taking, firm value, lodging industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 590

Authors: Fouad M. Bendimerad, Jerome B. Zayas, Michael Adrian T. Padilla

Abstract:

With the increasing scale of severity and frequency of disasters worldwide, the performance of governance systems for disaster risk reduction and management in many countries are being put to the test. In the Philippines, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Act of 2010 (Republic Act 10121 or RA 10121) as the framework for disaster risk reduction and management was tested when Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the eastern provinces of the Philippines in November 2013. Typhoon Haiyan is considered to be the strongest recorded typhoon in history to make landfall with winds exceeding 252 km/hr. In assessing the performance of RA 10121 the authors conducted document reviews of related policies, plans, programs, and key interviews and focus groups with representatives of 21 national government departments, two (2) local government units, six (6) private sector and civil society organizations, and five (5) development agencies. Our analysis will argue that enhancements are needed in RA 10121 in order to meet the challenges of large-scale disasters. The current structure where government agencies and departments organize along DRRM thematic areas such response and relief, preparedness, prevention and mitigation, and recovery and response proved to be inefficient in coordinating response and recovery and in mobilizing resources on the ground. However, experience from various disasters has shown the Philippine government’s tendency to organize major recovery programs along development sectors such as infrastructure, livelihood, shelter, and social services, which is consistent with the concept of DRM mainstreaming. We will argue that this sectoral approach is more effective than the thematic approach to DRRM. The council-type arrangement for coordination has also been rendered inoperable by Typhoon Haiyan because the agency responsible for coordination does not have decision-making authority to mobilize action and resources of other agencies which are members of the council. Resources have been devolved to agencies responsible for each thematic area and there is no clear command and direction structure for decision-making. However, experience also shows that the Philippine government has appointed ad-hoc bodies with authority over other agencies to coordinate and mobilize action and resources in recovering from large-scale disasters. We will argue that this approach be institutionalized within the government structure to enable a more efficient and effective disaster risk reduction and management system.

Keywords: risk reduction and management, recovery, governance, typhoon haiyan response and recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

Abstract:

The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

Procedia PDF Downloads 603

Authors: Seyed Vahid Kamal Alavi

Abstract:

Italy has experienced a notable quantity and impact of disasters due to natural hazards and technological accidents caused by diverse risk sources on its physical, technological, and human/sociological infrastructures during past decade. This study discusses the frequency and impacts of the most three physical devastating natural hazards in Italy for the period 2000–2013. The approach examines the reliability of a range of open source WebGIS techniques versus a proposed multi-hazard risk management methodology. Spatial and attribute data which include USGS publically available hazard data and thirteen years Munich RE recorded data for Italy with different severities have been processed, visualized in a GIS (Geographic Information System) framework. Comparison of results from the study showed that the multi-hazard risk maps generated using open source techniques do not provide a reliable system to analyze the infrastructures losses in respect to national risk sources while they can be adopted for general international risk management purposes. Additionally, this study establishes the possibility to critically examine and calibrate different integrated techniques in evaluating what better protection measures can be taken in an area.

Keywords: multi-hazard risk mapping, risk management, GIS, Italy

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

Abstract:

Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

Abstract:

Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Febrian Tegar Wicaksana, Niqmatul Kurniati, Surya Nandika

Abstract:

Indonesia is one of the countries that have great number of disaster occurrence and threat because it is located in not only between three tectonic plates such as Eurasia plates, Indo-Australia plates and Pacific plates, but also in the Ring of Fire path, like earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption and many more. Recently, research shows that there are potential areas that will be devastated by Tsunami in southern coast of Java. Tsunami is a series of waves in a body of water caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean. When the waves enter shallow water, they may rise to several feet or, in rare cases, tens of feet, striking the coast with devastating force. The parameter for reference such as magnitude, the depth of epicentre, distance between epicentres with land, the depth of every points, when reached the shore and the growth of waves. Interaction between parameters will bring the big variance of Tsunami wave. Based on that, we can formulate preparation that needed for disaster mitigation strategies. The mitigation strategies will take the important role in an effort to reduce the number of victims and damage in the area. It will reduce the number of victim and casualties. Reducing is directed to the most difficult mobilization casualties in the tsunami disaster area like old people, sick people and disabilities people. Until now, the method that used for rescuing people from Tsunami is basic horizontal evacuation. This evacuation system is not optimal because it needs so long time and it cannot be used by people with disabilities. The writers propose to create a vertical evacuation model with an escape bunker system. This bunker system is chosen because the downward vertical evacuation is considered more efficient and faster. Especially in coastal areas without any highlands surround it. The downward evacuation system is better than upward evacuation because it can avoid the risk of erosion at the ground around the structure which can affect the building. The structure of the bunker and the evacuation process while, and even after, disaster are the main priority to be considered. The power of bunker has quake’s resistance, the durability from water stream, variety of interaction to the ground, and waterproof design. When the situation is back to normal, victim and casualties can go into the safer place. The bunker will be located near the hospital and public places, and will have wide entrance supported by large slide in it so it will ease the disabilities people. The technology of the escape bunker system is expected to reduce the number of victims who have low mobility in the Tsunami.

Keywords: escape bunker, tsunami, vertical evacuation, mitigation, disaster management

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Manzurul Alam, John Griffiths, David Holloway, Megan Paull, Anne Clear

Abstract:

Background: This paper investigates the nature of risk management practices in non-profit organizations. It is argued here that the risk exposure of these organizations has increased as a result of their entrepreneurial activities. This study explores how a particular non-profit organization formulates its risk strategies in the face funding restrictions. Design/Method/Approach: The study adopts a case study approach to report the results on how a non-profit organization diversifies its activities, tackles risks arising from such activities and improves performance. Results: The findings show that the organization made structural adjustments and leadership changes which helped to adjust their risk strategies. It also reports the organizational processes to deal with risks arising from both related and unrelated diversification strategies. Implications: Any generalization from this case example needs to be taken with caution as there are significant differences between non-profit organizations operating in different sectors. Originality: The paper makes a significant contribution to the non-profit literature by highlighting the diversification strategies along with risk performance.

Keywords: risk management, performance management, non-profit organizations, financial management

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

Procedia PDF Downloads 461

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Mario A. Blanco, Nicholas Burkhardt

Abstract:

An important problem in satellite communication systems which operate in the Ka and EHF frequency bands consists of the overall degradation in link performance of mobile terminals due to various types of degradations in the link/channel, such as fading, blockage of the link to the satellite (especially in urban environments), intentional as well as other types of interference, etc. In this paper, we focus primarily on the interference problem, and we develop a very efficient and cost-effective solution based on the use of fountain codes. We first introduce a satellite communications (SATCOM) terminal uplink interference channel model that is classically used against communication systems that use spread-spectrum waveforms. We then consider the use of fountain codes, with focus on Raptor codes, as our main mitigation technique to combat the degradation in link/receiver performance due to the interference signal. The performance of the receiver is obtained in terms of average probability of bit and message error rate as a function of bit energy-to-noise density ratio, Eb/N0, and other parameters of interest, via a combination of analysis and computer simulations, and we show that the use of fountain codes is extremely effective in overcoming the effects of intentional interference on the performance of the receiver and associated communication links. We then show this technique can be extended to mitigate other types of SATCOM channel degradations, such as those caused by channel fading, shadowing, and hard-blockage of the uplink signal.

Keywords: SATCOM, interference mitigation, fountain codes, turbo codes, cross-layer

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Teresa Smith, Farrah Jacquez

Abstract:

Health-risk behaviors (e.g., smoking, poor diet) directly increase the risk for chronic disease and morbidity. There is substantial evidence of a negative association between socioeconomic status (SES) and engagement in health-risk behaviors. However, due to the complexity of SES, researchers have suggested looking beyond this factor to fully understand the mechanisms that underlie engagement in health-risk behaviors. Stress is one plausible mechanism through which SES impacts health-risk behaviors. Currently, it remains unclear how stress occurring across the life course might impact health behaviors and explain the association between SES and these behaviors. To address the gaps in the literature, 172 adults between the ages of 18-49 were surveyed about their lifetime stress exposure, sociodemographic variables, and health-risk behaviors via an online recruitment portal, Prolific. Five major findings emerged from the current study. First, SES was negatively associated with engagement in health-risk behaviors and lifetime stress above and beyond current stress and other relevant demographics. Second, lifetime stress was significantly associated with health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and relevant demographic variables. Third, lifetime stress fully mediated the association between SES and health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and other demographics. Fourth, the severity of stress experienced emerged as the most significant lifetime stress variable that explains the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors. Fifth and finally, lower SES and experiencing financial and legal/crime stressors increased the likelihood of engaging in health-risk behaviors. The current study results align with previous research and suggest that stress occurring over the lifespan impacts the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors, which are in turn known to impact health outcomes. However, our findings move the current literature forward by providing a more nuanced understanding of the specific aspects of stress that influence this association. Specifically, the severity of stress experienced across the entire lifespan was the most important aspect of stress when examining the association between SES and health-risk behaviors. Further, individuals most at risk for engaging in health-risk behaviors are those of the lowest SES and experience financial and legal/crime stressors. These findings have the potential to inform interventions and policies aimed at addressing health-risk behaviors by providing a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of stress.

Keywords: stress, health behaviors, socioeconomic status, health

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

Abstract:

The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Rudzani Lusunzi, Frans Waanders, Elvis Fosso-Kankeu, Robert Khashane Netshitungulwana

Abstract:

The Sabie Goldfield has a history of gold mining dating back more than a century. Acid mine drainage (AMD) from the Nestor mine tailings storage facility (MTSF) poses a serious threat to the nearby ecosystem, specifically the Sabie River system. This study aims at developing mitigation measures for the AMD emanating from the Nestor MTSF using materials from the Glynns Lydenburg MTSF. The Nestor MTSF (NM) and the Glynns Lydenburg MTSF (GM) each provided about 20 kg of bulk composite samples. Using samples from the Nestor MTSF and the Glynns Lydenburg MTSF, two mixtures were created. MIX-A is a mixture that contains 25% weight percent (GM) and 75% weight percent (NM). MIX-B is the name given to the second mixture, which contains 50% AN and 50% AG. The same static test, i.e., acid–base accounting (ABA), net acid generation (NAG), and acid buffering characteristics curve (ABCC) was used to estimate the acid-generating probabilities of samples NM and GM for MIX-A and MIX-B. Furthermore, the mineralogy of the Nestor MTSF samples consists of the primary acid-producing mineral pyrite as well as the secondary minerals ferricopiapite and jarosite, which are common in acidic conditions. The Glynns Lydenburg MTSF samples, on the other hand, contain primary acid-neutralizing minerals calcite and dolomite. Based on the assessment conducted, materials from the Glynns Lydenburg are capable of neutralizing AMD from Nestor MTSF. Therefore, the alkaline tailings materials from the Glynns Lydenburg MTSF can be used to rehabilitate the acidic Nestor MTSF.

Keywords: Nestor Mine, acid mine drainage, mitigation, Sabie River system

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

Abstract:

In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Sarah A. Alotaibi, Mohammed A. Almutairi, Abdullah A. Alsayari, Adibah M. Almutairi, Somaiah K. Almubayedh

Abstract:

Concerns over the presence of acrylamide in food date back to 2002, when Swedish scientists stated that, in carbohydrate-rich foods, amounts of acrylamide were formed when cooked at high temperatures. Similar findings were reported by other researchers which, consequently, caused major international efforts to investigate dietary exposure and the subsequent health complications in order to properly manage this issue. Due to this issue, in this work, we aim to determine the acrylamide level in different foods (coffee, potato chips, biscuits, and baby food) commonly consumed by the Saudi population. In a total of forty-three samples, acrylamide was detected in twenty-three samples at levels of 12.3 to 2850 µg/kg. In reference to the food groups, the highest concentration of acrylamide was found in coffee samples (<12.3-2850 μg/kg), followed by potato chips (655-1310 μg/kg), then biscuits (23.5-449 μg/kg), whereas the lowest acrylamide level was observed in baby food (<14.75 – 126 μg/kg). Most coffee, biscuits and potato chips products contain high amount of acrylamide content and also the most commonly consumed product. Saudi adults had a mean exposure of acrylamide for coffee, potato, biscuit, and cereal (0.07439, 0.04794, 0.01125, 0.003371 µg/kg-b.w/day), respectively. On the other hand, exposure to acrylamide in Saudi infants and children to the same types of food was (0.1701, 0.1096, 0.02572, 0.00771 µg/kg-b.w/day), respectively. Most groups have a percentile that exceeds the tolerable daily intake (TDI) cancer value (2.6 µg/kg-b.w/day). Overall, the MOE results show that the Saudi population is at high risk of acrylamide-related disease in all food types, and there is a chance of cancer risk in all age groups (all values ˂10,000). Furthermore, it was found that in non-cancer risks, the acrylamide in all tested foods was within the safe limit (˃125), except for potato chips, in which there is a risk for diseases in the population. With potato and coffee as raw materials, additional studies were conducted to assess different factors, including temperature, cocking time, and additives affecting the acrylamide formation in fried potato and roasted coffee, by systematically varying processing temperatures and time values, a mitigation of acrylamide content was achieved when lowering the temperature and decreasing the cooking time. Furthermore, it was shown that the combination of the addition of chitosan and NaCl had a large impact on the formation.

Keywords: risk assessment, dietary exposure, MOA, acrylamide, hazard

Procedia PDF Downloads 23

Authors: Francesca Nicolosi, Teresa Cosola

Abstract:

Climate changes in Mediterranean areas, such as the increase of average seasonal temperatures, the urban heat island phenomenon, the intensification of solar radiation and the extreme weather threats, cause disruption events, so that climate adaptation has become a pressing issue. Due to the strategic role that the built heritage holds in terms of environmental impact and energy waste and its potentiality, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of the existing building to climate change, in order to define different mitigation scenarios. The aim of this research work is to define an optimized and integrated methodology for the assessment of resilience levels and adaptation scenarios for existing buildings in Mediterranean urban areas. Moreover, the study of resilience indicators allows us to define building environmental and energy performance in order to identify the design and technological solutions for the improvement of the building and its urban area potentialities. The methodology identifies step-by-step different phases, starting from the detailed study of characteristic elements of urban system: climatic, natural, human, typological and functional components are analyzed in their critical factors and their potential. Through the individuation of the main perturbing factors and the vulnerability degree of the system to the risks linked to climate change, it is possible to define mitigation and adaptation scenarios. They can be different, according to the typological, functional and constructive features of the analyzed system, divided into categories of intervention, and characterized by different analysis levels (from the single building to the urban area). The use of software simulations allows obtaining information on the overall behavior of the building and the urban system, to generate predictive models in the medium and long-term environmental and energy retrofit and to make a comparative study of the mitigation scenarios identified. The studied methodology is validated on a case study.

Keywords: climate impact mitigation, energy efficiency, existing building heritage, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

Abstract:

Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: R. Rezaeipour

Abstract:

One of the key aspects of power quality improvement in power system is the mitigation of voltage sags/swells and flicker. Custom power devices have been known as the best tools for voltage disturbances mitigation as well as reactive power compensation. Dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) which is the most efficient and effective modern custom power device can provide the most commercial solution to solve several problems of power quality in distribution networks. This paper deals with analysis and simulation technique of DVR based on instantaneous power theory which is a quick control to detect signals. The main purpose of this work is to remove three important disturbances including voltage sags/swells and flicker. Simulation of the proposed method was carried out on two sample systems by using MATLAB software environment and the results of simulation show that the proposed method is able to provide desirable power quality in the presence of wide range of disturbances.

Keywords: DVR, power quality, voltage sags, voltage swells, flicker

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

Abstract:

Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

Abstract:

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

Procedia PDF Downloads 540

Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

Abstract:

During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: C. W. Kwak, I. J. Park, D. I. Jang

Abstract:

The importance of cost-wise effective application and construction is getting increase due to the surge of traffic volume in the metropolitan cities. Accordingly, the necessity of the tunnel has large section becomes more critical. Double deck tunnel can be one of the most appropriate solutions to the necessity. The dynamic stability of double deck tunnel is essential against seismic load since it has large section and connection between perimeter lining and interim slab. In this study, 3-dimensional dynamic numerical analysis was conducted based on the Finite Difference Method to investigate the seismic behavior of double deck tunnel. Seismic joint for dynamic stability and the mitigation of seismic impact on the lining was considered in the modeling and analysis. Consequently, the mitigation of acceleration, lining displacement and stress were verified successfully.

Keywords: double deck tunnel, interim slab, 3-dimensional dynamic numerical analysis, seismic joint

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

Abstract:

Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Atia Alam

Abstract:

Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 331