Search results for: return distribution

Authors: Mahdy Elhusseiny, Richard Gearhart, Mariam Alyammahi

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In this study we analyse the impact of a number of major macroeconomic variables on industry-specific excess rates of return. In later specifications, we include time and recession fixed effects, to potentially capture time-specific trends that may have been changing over our panel. We have a number of results that bear mentioning. Seasonal and temporal factors found to have very large role in sector-specific excess returns. Increases in M1(money supply) decreases bank, insurance, real estate, and telecommunications, while increases industrial and transportation excess returns. The results indicate that the market return increases every sector-specific rate of return. The 2007 to 2009 recession significantly reduced excess returns in the bank, real estate, and transportation sectors.

Keywords: macroeconomic factors, industry returns, fixed effects, temporal factors

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: K. A. Adepoju, O. I. Shittu, A. U. Chukwu

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In this paper, a new four-parameter generalized version of the Fisher Snedecor distribution called Beta- F distribution is introduced. The comprehensive account of the statistical properties of the new distributions was considered. Formal expressions for the cumulative density function, moments, moment generating function and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as its Fisher information, were obtained. The flexibility of this distribution as well as its robustness using cancer remission time data was demonstrated. The new distribution can be used in most applications where the assumption underlying the use of other lifetime distributions is violated.

Keywords: fisher-snedecor distribution, beta-f distribution, outlier, maximum likelihood method

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Authors: Sabrina Mortet

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The economic crisis, which struck the world economy in mid-2008, had an impact on migration in Europe, especially the employment situation of migrant workers. That’s why migrants tended to be the first to lose their jobs during the crisis, victims of the rule "last–in, first-out”. In the same context, the economic recession which affected the migration flows, immigration level has slowed while emigration has increased in some European countries. Since people go where jobs are, we will try to speak about the mobility of migrants after the crisis by focusing on return migration to see if migrants in the period of recession prefer going home or staying in the host country; and we will take Spain as a case of study, because it had attracted an extraordinarily high inflows of migration and it is one of the EU country which was hardly affected by the financial crisis.

Keywords: economic crisis, international migration, mobility, return migration, employement

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: decision support system, distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Chimezie P. Nnanwa, Thomas C. Urama, Patrick O. Ezepue

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In this paper we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze the eigen-structure of the empirical correlations of 82 stocks which are consistently traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over a 4-year study period 3 August 2009 to 26 August 2013. We apply the Marchenko-Pastur distribution of eigenvalues of a purely random matrix to investigate the presence of investment-pertinent information contained in the empirical correlation matrix of the selected stocks. We use hypothesised standard normal distribution of eigenvector components from RMT to assess deviations of the empirical eigenvectors to this distribution for different eigenvalues. We also use the Inverse Participation Ratio to measure the deviation of eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix from RMT results. These preliminary results on the dynamics of asset price correlations in the NSE are important for improving risk-return trade-offs associated with Markowitz’s portfolio optimization in the stock exchange, which is pursued in future work.

Keywords: correlation matrix, eigenvalue and eigenvector, inverse participation ratio, portfolio optimization, random matrix theory

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Authors: Chin-Huang Huang, Chun-Chu Yeh

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Physical activities have a positive impact on individuals’ health and well-being. They also play an important role in promoting quality of life (QoL). The distance running enhances participants’ life satisfaction and provides positive experiences in physical activity. This study aims to measure the perception of QoL and to find the effect on satisfaction and intent to return for distance runners. Exploratory factor analysis is carried out to extract four major factorial dimensions of QoL, including multiple functions, spiritual, physical and cognitive factors. The main factors of QoL will be introduced into the regression function on satisfaction and return intention. The results show that the QoL factors including multiple functions, spiritual, physical and cognitive factors have a positive and significant impact on satisfaction for participants. The multiple functions and physical factors are also significantly positively correlated to the intent of return for runners.

Keywords: quality of life, physical activity, distance running, satisfaction

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Authors: Sayed Kifayat Shah, Tang Zhongjun, Arfa Tanveer

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This study explores the significant heatwave effect on stock return and volatility. Using an ARCH/GARCH approach, it examines the relationship between the heatwave of Karachi, Islamabad, and Lahore on the KSE-100 index. It also explores the impact of heatwave on returns of the pharmaceutical and electronics industries. The empirical results confirm that that stock return is positively related to the heat waves of Karachi, negatively related to that of Islamabad, and is not affected by the heatwave of Lahore. Similarly, pharmaceutical and electronics indices are also positively related to heatwaves. These differences in results can be ascribed to the change in the behavior of the residents of that city. The outcomes are useful for understanding an investor's behavior reacting to weather and fluxes in stock price related to heatwave severity levels. The results can support investors in fixing biases in behavior.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH model, heat wave, KSE-100 index, stock market return

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

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Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain

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Authors: Akim Borbuev, Francisco de León

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Economic and population growth in densely-populated urban areas introduce major challenges to distribution system operators, planers, and designers. To supply added loads, utilities are frequently forced to invest in new distribution feeders. However, this is becoming increasingly more challenging due to space limitations and rising installation costs in urban settings. This paper proposes the conversion of critical alternating current (ac) distribution feeders into direct current (dc) feeders to increase the power transfer capacity by a factor as high as four. Current trends suggest that the return of dc transmission, distribution, and utilization are inevitable. Since a total system-level transformation to dc operation is not possible in a short period of time due to the needed huge investments and utility unreadiness, this paper recommends that feeders that are expected to exceed their limits in near future are converted to dc. The increase in power transfer capacity is achieved through several key differences between ac and dc power transmission systems. First, it is shown that underground cables can be operated at higher dc voltage than the ac voltage for the same dielectric stress in the insulation. Second, cable sheath losses, due to induced voltages yielding circulation currents, that can be as high as phase conductor losses under ac operation, are not present under dc. Finally, skin and proximity effects in conductors and sheaths do not exist in dc cables. The paper demonstrates that in addition to the increased power transfer capacity utilities substituting ac feeders by dc feeders could benefit from significant lower costs and reduced losses. Installing dc feeders is less expensive than installing new ac feeders even when new trenches are not needed. Case studies using the IEEE 342-Node Low Voltage Networked Test System quantify the technical and economic benefits of dc feeders.

Keywords: DC power systems, distribution feeders, distribution networks, power transfer capacity

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Authors: Euphrasia Susy Suhendra, Lies Handrijaningsih

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The banking sector as an intermediary party or intermediaries occupies a very important position in bridging the needs of working capital investment in the real sector with funds owner. This will certainly make money more effectively to improve the economic value added. As an intermediary, Islamic banks raise funds from the public and then distribute in the form of financing. In practice, the distribution of funding that is run by Islamic Banking is not as easy as, in theory, because, in fact, there are many financing problems; some are caused by lacking the assessment and supervision of banks to customers. This study aims to analyze the influence of the Third Party Funds, Return on Assets (ROA), Non Performing Financing (NPF), and Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) to Total Financing provided to the Community by Islamic Banks in Indonesia. The data used is monthly data released by Bank of Indonesia in Islamic Banking Statistics in the time period of January 2009 - December 2013. This study uses cointegration test to see the long-term relationship, and use error correction models to examine the relationship of short-term. The results of this study indicate that the Third Party Fund has a short-term effect on total funding, Return on Assets has a long term effect on the total financing, Non Performing Financing has long-term effects of total financing, and Financing deposit ratio has the effect of short-term and long-term of the total financing provided by Islamic Banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: Islamic banking, third party fund, return on asset, non-performing financing, financing deposit ratio

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki

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Due to the growing global interest of investment society in innovative enterprises, as the objective of this research was adopted to examine the investment efficiency in shares of companies with innovative characteristics in the risk-return layout. The research was carried out for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange taking into various consideration time ranges of investment. Obtained results show that in shorter periods of time, investors buy expectations connected with innovative companies and therefore the efficiency of investment in their shares is relatively high, but in the longer term expectations are revised by companies financial results, which in turn negatively affects the efficiency of investment in their shares.

Keywords: capital market, innovative company, investment strategies, risk and return analysis

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

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We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of real life data set.

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Nora Alomar, Bianca Alexandra Stefa, Saleh Bazi

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This research uncovers the determinants that drive millennial consumers to adhere to product return of fast-fashion products purchases via e-commerce and what effects it has on consumer experience and satisfaction. Online consumption has skyrocketed, with e-commerce being the only, most reliable, and safe method of shopping during and post Covid-19. It has been noted customers are demanding a wide variety of product characteristics and a generous optimal return policy. The authors have selected to examine millennial consumers as they are digital natives and have an affinity for researching, reading product reviews, and shopping online, with a great spending power due to a higher disposable income in comparison to other generations. A multi-study approach is adopted, where study one (interviews, sample of 20 respondents) investigates the factors that drive product return, and study two (PLS-SEM, sample of 250 respondents) looks into the relationships of product return management against behavioral outcomes by having the generated factors (from study one) as moderators. Five themes are generated from study one (return policies, product characteristics, delivery lead time, seasonality, product trial & overspending). The authors identify that two out of the five factors (seasonality, product trial & overspending) have not been highlighted by the literature. The paper examines 11 hypotheses, where 10 are supported. Findings highlight the quality of the product return management influences the overall millennial customer experience and satisfaction. Findings also indicate that product return management was identified to have a significant negative effect on customer experience. Additionally, seasonality has a significant but negative moderation, which means increasing seasonality decreases the relationship between product return management and customer experience and satisfaction. Results highlight that return policies have a significant negative influence on the relationship between returning a product and customer experience and satisfaction. Moreover, product characteristics are also identified to have a significant negative influence on the relationship between returning a product and customer experience and satisfaction. This study further examines the influence of the factors on direct e-commerce websites and third-party e-commerce websites. Findings showcase a strong statistical significance for the increased rate of return of fast-fashion products on third-party websites. This paper aids practitioners in taking strategic decisions related to return management, to improve the quality of logistical services and, in turn, increase profitability.

Keywords: customer experience, customer satisfaction, e-commerce, fast-fashion, product returns

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom

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This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: distribution, court doll, Ang Thong province, business and social sciences

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Authors: Kaltrina Kusari

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Displaced populations have received increasing attention, yet the experiences of return migrants remain largely hidden within social sciences. Existing research, albeit limited, suggests that policies which impact return migrants, especially those forced to return to their home countries, do not reflect their voices. Specifically, the United Nations Hight Commissioner for Refugees has adopted repatriation as a preferred policy solution, despite research which substantiates that returning to one’s home country is neither durable nor the end of the migration cycle; as many of 80% of returnees decide to remigrate. This one-size-fits-all approach to forced displacement does not recognize the impact of intersecting identity categories on return migration, thus failing to consider how ethnicity, gender, and class, among others, shape repatriation. To address this, this qualitative study examined the repatriation experiences of return migrant women from Kosovo and the role of social workers in facilitating return. In 2015, Kosovars constituted the fourth largest group of asylum seekers in the European Union, yet 96% of them were rejected. Additionally, since 1999 Kosovo has ranked among the top 10 countries of origin for return migrants. Considering that return migration trends are impacted by global power dynamics, this study relied on a postcolonial and transnational feminist framework to contextualize the mobility of displaced peoples in terms of globalization and conceptualize migration as a gendered process. Postcolonial and feminist theories suggest that power is partly operationalized through language, thus, Critical Discourse Analysis was used as a research methodology. CDA is concerned with examining how power, language, and discourses shape social processes and relationships of dominance. Data collection included interviews with 15 return migrant women (eight ethnic minorities and seven Albanian) and 18 service providers in Kosovo. The main findings illustrate that both returnee women and service providers rely on discourses which 1) challenge the voluntariness and sustainability of repatriation; 2) construct Kosovo as inferior to EU countries; and 3) highlight the impact of patriarchy and ethnic racism on return migration. A postcolonial transnational feminist analysis demonstrates that despite Kosovars’ challenges with repatriation, European Union countries use their power to impose repatriation as a preferred solution for Kosovo’s government. These findings add to the body of existing repatriation literature and provide important implications for how return migration might be carried out, not only in Kosovo but other countries as well.

Keywords: migration, gender, repatriation, transnational feminism

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Authors: Ramanamurthi Botlagunta

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Return migrate on is a process; it’s not a new phenomenal. People are migrating since civilization started. In the case of Indian Diaspora, peoples migrated before the Independence of India. Even after the independence. There are various reasons for the migration. According to the characteristics of the migrants, geographical, political, and economic factors there are many changes occur in the mode of migration. In India currently almost 25 million peoples are outside of the country. But all of them not able to get the immigrants status in their respective host society due to the nature of individual perception and the immigration policies of the host countries. They came back to homeland after spending days/months/years. They are known as the return migrants. Returning migrants are 'persons returning to their country of citizenship after having been international migrants, whether short term or long-term'. Increasingly, migration is seen very differently from what was once believed to be a one-way phenomenon. The renewed interest of return migration can be seen through two aspects one is that growing importance of temporary migration programmers in other countries and other one is that potential role of migrants in developing their home countries. Conceptualized return migration in several ways: occasional return, seasonal return, temporary return, permanent return, and circular return. The reasons for the return migration are retirement, failure to assimilate in the host country, problems with acculturation in the destination country, being unsuccessful in the emigrating country, acquiring the desired wealth, innovate and to serve as change agents in the birth country. With the advent of globalization and the rapid development of transportation systems and communication technologies, this is a process by which immigrants forge and sustain simultaneous multi-stranded social relations that link together their societies of origin and settlement. We can find that Current theories of transnational migration are greatly focused on the economic impacts on the home countries, while social, cultural and political impacts have recently started gaining momentum. This, however, has been changing as globalization is radically transforming the way people move around the world. One of the reasons for the return migration is that lack of proportionate representation of Asian immigrants in positions of authority and decision-making can be a result of challenges confronted in cultural and structural assimilation. The present study mainly focuses socioeconomic and demographic profile of return migration of Indians from other countries in general and particularly on Andhra Pradesh the people who are returning from other countries. Migration is that lack of proportionate representation of Asian immigrants in positions of authority and decision-making can be a result of challenges confronted in cultural and structural assimilation. The present study mainly focuses socioeconomic and demographic profile of return migration of Indians from other countries in general and particularly on Andhra Pradesh the people who are returning from other countries.

Keywords: migration, return migration, globalization, development, socio- economic, Asian immigrants, UN, Andhra Pradesh

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Authors: Milena Serzante, Viktoriia Stankevich, Yousre Badir

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Companies have a significant impact on the environment and society, and sustainability is important not only for ethical concerns but also for financial and economic reasons. The aim of the study is to analyze how the sustainable performance of the company impacts the economy and the business's economic performance. To achieve this goal, such methods as the Pearson correlation, Multiple Linear Regression, Cook's distance method, K-nearest neighbor and COPRAS technique were implemented. The results revealed that there is no significant correlation between different indicators of sustainable development of the company and both GDP and Return on Equity. It indicates that the methodology of evaluating sustainability causes the difference in ranking companies based on sustainable performance.

Keywords: economic impact, sustainability evaluation, sustainable companies, economic indicators, sustainability, GDP, return on equity

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Authors: Elida Cena

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Return migration is receiving increased attention as the phenomenon challenges assumptions of natural ‘homecomings’. This talk outlines preliminary findings from an ongoing PhD study which explores return migration of Albanian migrants (aged 30-50 years) and their children (aged 7-18 years). Participants (n=51) were purposively recruited from two Albanian cities with divergent social and economic conditions, and the majority had returned from Greece following the recent economic downturn in that country. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with respondents aged 13 years and above, and were augmented with focus groups and family case studies. Data collection for case studies was aided by photo elicitation, interviews and participatory techniques (drawing) were employed for children aged 7-12 years. Through a multidisciplinary perspective, findings will uncover experiences of migrants and children upon return, the quest to identify with the originating country and create a sense of belongingness. Narrative analysis reveals that the abrupt return was associated with ambivalent feelings and disillusionment about their (re)settlement for both younger and older participants. Faced with unexpected realities and lack of opportunities, particularly for the children of migrants, Albania is viewed as a ‘transit country’, a temporary solution to escape the crisis in the destination country and move to a more developed western country. Adult return migrants articulate lack of employment and insecurity for the future. Apart from school difficulties, children experience isolation and social exclusion, marked by stigmatized labelling from other peers which exacerbates their belonging. Such mobilities have had deeper effects in complicating family relationships as influenced by many disintegration factors. Feelings of alienation and being emigrant for the second time were common in participants' accounts. Findings concerning the difficulties of individuals (re)connecting with their ethnic background and the impact on their identities are discussed in relation to the literature on return migration and identification.

Keywords: return migration, belonging, identity, disintegration, integration

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Authors: Deike Janssen

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In the scenery of the Tyrolean mountains, at an altitude of 1300 meters, stands a building. Residents and activists call it a prison. However, it is not a prison -according to authorities, it is a 'Return Counseling Facility' where migrants and refugees should be "motivated" to return "voluntary" to their countries of origin. This paper argues that the geographical location of the camp functions as a site of exclusion, isolation, and coercion where no one can decide “voluntary” to return, but where people are brought to despair to leave Austria. Through a qualitative case study, this paper documents the heavy impact of offshore detention on the mental, physical and social state of the residents and a variety of human rights problems in the centre. Different developments at the Return Counselling Facility and the law that back up the centre uncover a worrying dynamic that deliberately accepts human rights problems in order to enforce borders, a policy that disregards humanitarian, legal, and ethical stands in order to deport people at all hazards. It, therefore, can be seen as a creative and ultimate exercise of state power, which uses isolated locations to control migration. While the analysis revises the micro and macro implications of the facility and, therefore, the legal and political facets, it also sheds light on the role of the civil society, which tries to increase through constant and collective efforts the human rights efforts of the government.

Keywords: deportation, human rights, migration, refugee detention, voluntary return

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Authors: Shourav Ahmed, M. Gulam Kibria, Kais Zaman

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Control charts graphically verify variation in quality parameters. Attribute type control charts deal with quality parameters that can only hold two states, e.g., good or bad, yes or no, etc. At present, p-control chart is most commonly used to deal with attribute type data. In construction of p-control chart using binomial distribution, the value of proportion non-conforming must be known or estimated from limited sample information. As the probability distribution of fraction non-conforming (p) is considered in hyperbinomial distribution unlike a constant value in case of binomial distribution, it reduces the risk of false detection. In this study, a statistical control chart is proposed based on hyperbinomial distribution when prior estimate of proportion non-conforming is unavailable and is estimated from limited sample information. We developed the control limits of the proposed modified p-chart using the mean and variance of hyperbinomial distribution. The proposed modified p-chart can also utilize additional sample information when they are available. The study also validates the use of modified p-chart by comparing with the result obtained using cumulative distribution function of hyperbinomial distribution. The study clearly indicates that the use of hyperbinomial distribution in construction of p-control chart yields much accurate estimate of quality parameters than using binomial distribution.

Keywords: binomial distribution, control charts, cumulative distribution function, hyper binomial distribution

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah, Mehdi Jorabloo

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Water flow management is one of the most important parts of river engineering. Non-uniformity distribution of rainfall and various flow demand with unreasonable flow management will be caused destroyed of the river ecosystem. Then, it is severe to determine ecosystem flow requirement. In this paper, Flow duration curve indices method which has hydrological based was used to evaluate environmental flow in Gharasou River, Ardabil, Iran. Using flow duration curve, Q90 and Q95 for different return periods were calculated. Their magnitude was determined as 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, and 30 days. According to the second method, hydraulic alteration indices often had low and medium range. To maintain river at an acceptable ecological condition, minimum daily discharge of index Q95 is 0.7 m^3.s^-1.

Keywords: Gharasou River, water flow management, non-uniformity distribution, ecosystem flow requirement, hydraulic alteration

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Authors: Seung Yoon Hyun, Hyeong Seung An, Myeong Ho Choi, Sung Hwan Bae, Yu Jong Sim

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In 2015, the southern part of the Korean Peninsula has 8.6 million poles, 1.25 million km power lines, and 2 million transformers, etc. It is the massive amount of distribution equipments which could cover a round-trip distance from the earth to the moon and 11 turns around the earth. These distribution equipments are spread out like capillaries and supplying power to every corner of the Korean Peninsula. In order to manage these huge power facility efficiently, KEPCO use DAS (Distribution Automation System) to operate distribution power system since 1997. DAS is integrated system that enables to remotely supervise and control breakers and switches on distribution network. Using DAS, we can reduce outage time and power loss. KEPCO has about 160,000 switches, 50%(about 80,000) of switches are automated, and 41 distribution center monitoring&control these switches 24-hour 365 days to get the best efficiency of distribution networks. However, the rapid increasing renewable energy sources become the problem in the efficient operation of distributed power system. (currently 2,400 MW, 75,000 generators operate in distribution power system). In this paper, it suggests the way to interconnect between renewable energy source and distribution power system.

Keywords: distribution, renewable, connect, DAS (Distribution Automation System)

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Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

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Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Umesh Kumar, Arun Kumar Shukla, B. V. V. Ravindra Babu

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The paper presents a compact tri band Curved U-Slot patch antenna with improved bandwidth and isolation characteristics. The proposed antenna excited by coaxial feed resonates at tri band of 2.8 GHz, 4.1 GHz and 5.7 GHz for VSWR ≤ 1.5 with an improved bandwidth of 99.7% and also for getting high gain antenna of 11.31 dB. A 2×2 MIMO is developed using the proposed antenna giving an excellent isolation of 28 dB between the two antennas. The simulation results of return loss, Mutual Coupling, Gain, VSWR, Surface Current Distribution and Electrical Distribution are presented. By keeping the substrate thickness constant over various dielectric constants, simulations were carried out using MATLAB® and HFSS (High Frequency Structure Simulator) software.

Keywords: performance analysis, curved U-slot patch, antenna with enhanced bandwidth, isolation for mimo systems

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Authors: Nada Souissi, Mourad Mroua

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between financial asset volatility, economic factors and investor's behavioral indicators related to both the company's and the markets stocks for the period from January 2000 to January2020. Using multiple linear regression and Bayesian Networks modeling, results show a positive and negative relationship between investor's psychology index, economic factors and predicted stock market return. We reveal that the application of the Bayesian Discrete Network contributes to identify the different cause and effect relationships between all economic, financial variables and psychology index.

Keywords: Financial asset return predictability, Economic factors, Investor's psychology index, Bayesian approach, Probabilistic networks, Parametric learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Raghav Lakhotia, Sameer Ganu, Anshul Goel, Abhishek Kumar

Abstract:

In the age and times where women’s empowerment is a significant topic of discussion, we aim to analyze the potential gender diversity influence on box office revenues. The following research is carried out by collecting data from 400 Hollywood movies between the years 2014-2017 and performing regression analysis to find a correlation between the presence of female characters in movies and their return on investment (ROI). The paper finds that there is a positive relationship between the performance of the movies (its ROI) and the gender diversity i.e. the more the number of female characters, the higher the revenue generated. Another factor such as Number of Votes also has a direct impact on the revenue of the movie. The research not only takes into consideration the mere presence of women on screen but also the exchange of at least one dialogue among themselves, which is presented by the Bechdel Score of the movie.

Keywords: Bechdel, diversity, Hollywood, return on investment

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Manal Osman

Abstract:

Sprinkler irrigation system became more popular to reduce water consumption and increase irrigation efficiency. The water distribution uniformity plays an important role in the performance of the sprinkler irrigation system. The use of low operating pressure instead of high operating pressure can be achieved many benefits including energy and water saving. An experimental study was performed to investigate the water distribution uniformity of the solid-set sprinkler irrigation system under low operating pressure. Different low operating pressures (62, 82, 102 and 122 kPa) were selected. The range of operating pressure was lower than the recommended in the previous studies to investigate the effect of low pressure on the water distribution uniformity. Different nozzle diameters (4, 5, 6 and 7 mm) were used. The outdoor single sprinkler test was performed. The water distribution of single sprinkler, the coefficients of uniformity such as coefficient of uniformity (CU), distribution uniformity of low quarter (DUlq), distribution uniformity of low half (DUlh), coefficient of variation (CV) and the distribution characteristics like rotation speed, throw radius and overlapping distance are presented in this paper.

Keywords: low operating pressure, sprinkler irrigation system, water distribution uniformity

Procedia PDF Downloads 560