Search results for: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Authors: Ceyhun Aksoylu, Rifat Sezer

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In this study, a strengthening method applicable without any evacuation process was investigated. In this analytical study, the pushover analysis results carry out by using the software of SAP2000. For this purpose, 1/3 scaled, 1-bay and 2-story R/C seven frames having usual deficiencies faults produced, one of which were not strengthened, but having brick-infill wall and the other 3 frames with infill walls strengthened with various shaped of high strength-precast diagonal concrete panels. The prepared analytical models investigated under reversed-cyclic loading that resembles the seismic effect. As a result of the analytical study, the properties of the reinforced concrete frames, such as strength, rigidity, energy dissipation capacity, etc. were determined and the strengthened models were compared with the unstrengthened one having the same properties. As a result of this study, the contributions of precast diagonal concrete applied on the infill walls of the existing frame systems against seismic effects were introduced with its advantages and disadvantages.

Keywords: RC frame, seismic effect, infill wall, strengthening, precast diagonal concrete panel, pushover analysis

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Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, Stochastic, seismic hazard

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Authors: Mohammadreza Salek Faramarzi, Touraj Taghikhany

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In this paper, seismic fragility assessment of a recently developed hybrid structural system, known as the strongback system (SBS) is investigated. In this system, to mitigate the occurrence of the soft-story mechanism and improve the distribution of story drifts over the height of the structure, an elastic vertical truss is formed. The strengthened members of the braced span are designed to remain substantially elastic during levels of excitation where soft-story mechanisms are likely to occur and impose a nearly uniform story drift distribution. Due to the distinctive characteristics of near-field ground motions, it seems to be necessary to study the effect of these records on seismic performance of the SBS. To this end, a set of 56 near-field ground motion records suggested by FEMA P695 methodology is used. For fragility assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in OpenSEES based on the recommended procedure in HAZUS technical manual. Four damage states including slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage (collapse) are considered. To evaluate each damage state, inter-story drift ratio and floor acceleration are implemented as engineering demand parameters. Further, to extend the evaluation of the collapse state of the system, a different collapse criterion suggested in FEMA P695 is applied. It is concluded that SBS can significantly increase the collapse capacity and consequently decrease the collapse risk of the structure during its life time. Comparing the observing mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of each damage state against the allowable values presented in performance-based design methods, it is found that using the elastic vertical truss, improves the structural response effectively.

Keywords: IDA, near-fault, probabilistic performance assessment, seismic fragility, strongback system, uncertainty

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Authors: Agnese Natali, Francesco Morelli, Walter Salvatore

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Automated Rack Supported Warehouses (ARSWs) are structures currently designed as steel racks. Even if there are common characteristics, there are differences that don’t allow to adopt the same design approach. Aiming to highlight the factors influencing the design and the behavior of ARSWs, a set of 5 structures designed by 5 European companies specialized in this field is used to perform both a critical analysis of the design approaches and the assessment of the seismic performance, which is used to point out the criticalities and the necessity of new design philosophy.

Keywords: steel racks, automated rack supported warehouse, thin walled cold-formed elements, seismic assessment

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Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm

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Authors: I. Apostol, M. Mosoarca

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Romania is a seismic country, with two major seismic zones, Vrancea and Banat. One of the most important cities from Banat seismic area is Timisoara, where a lot of valuable historical buildings were built before any design codes, but still they kept their stability during past earthquakes. This article presents the influence of the adjacent buildings during an earthquake and the way that the specific failure mechanism is changed when the building is part of an aggregate. The investigation was made using nonlinear analysis based on Tremuri software, first analyzing the buildings as isolated and second, considering the entire aggregate of buildings. There were noticed significant differences through the two situations regarding the specific failure mechanism activated for each building, showing the fact that in some situations, the presence of the adjacent buildings has positive or negative contribution for the seismic behavior of the analyzed one. The difference between the failure mechanism of the same buildings considered isolated and in aggregate aims to provide explications for the good structural state of the existing historical areas of Timisoara, as part of a larger multidisciplinary study, which will help local authorities to prioritize the consolidation works for the historical buildings in order to assure that the history of the city will be kept alive for the next generations.

Keywords: failure mechanism, analysis, aggregate, masonry, earthquake

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Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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A key issue in seismic risk analysis within the context of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering is the evaluation of the expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. The assessment of the seismic performance strongly depends on the choice of the seismic Intensity Measure (IM), which quantifies the characteristics of a ground motion that are important to the nonlinear structural response. Several conventional IMs of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them has been proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage. Therefore, alternative, scalar intensity measures, which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. Some of these IMs are based on integration of spectral values over a range of periods, in an attempt to account for the information that the shape of the acceleration, velocity or displacement spectrum provides. The adequacy of a number of these IMs in predicting the structural damage of 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. The investigated IMs, some of which are structure specific and some are nonstructure-specific, are defined via integration of spectral values. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan R/C buildings are studied. The buildings are subjected to 59 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes. The response is determined by nonlinear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are correlated with seven scalar ground motion IMs. The comparative assessment of the results revealed that the structure-specific IMs present higher correlation with the seismic damage of the three buildings. However, the adequacy of the IMs for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage measures, bidirectional excitation, spectral based IMs, R/C buildings

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Authors: Aditya Setyo Rahman, Dwikorita Karnawati, Muzli, Dadang Permana, Sigit Pramono, Fajri Syukur Rahmatullah, Oriza Sativa, Moehajirin, Edy Santoso, Nur Hidayati Oktavia, Ardian Yudhi Octantyo, Robby Wallansha, Juwita Sari Pradita, Nur Fani Habibah, Audia Kaluku, Amelia Chelcea, Yoga Dharma Persada, Anton Sugiharto

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Earthquake vibrations on the surface are not only affected by the magnitude of the earthquake and the distance from the hypocenter but also by the characteristics of the local soil. Variations and changes in soil characteristics from the depth of the bedrock to the surface can cause an amplification of earthquake vibrations that also affect the impact they may have on the surface. Soil characteristics vary widely even at relatively close distances, so for earthquake hazard mapping in cities with earthquake threats, it is necessary to study the characteristics of the local soil on a detailed or micro-scale (microzonation). This study proposes seismic microzonation and liquefaction potential based on microtremor observations. We carried out 143 microtremor observations, and the observation sites were spread across all populated sub-districts in Bengkulu City; the results showed that the dominance of Bengkulu City had medium soil types with a dominant period value of 0.4 < T₀ < 0.6, and there was one location with soft soil characteristics in the river, shaved with T₀ > 0.6. These results correlate with the potential for liquefaction as indicated by a seismic vulnerability index (K𝓰) greater than 5.

Keywords: microtremor, dominant period, microzonation, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

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In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

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The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment

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Authors: Atikah Binti Azudin, Nurin Nazlah Binti Muhamad Yani, Nur Alya Nadhirah Binti Naaidith, Nur Amylia Wahida Binti Mat Ayob, Nurshamimi Shakirah Binti Suboh, Nur Auni Batrisyia Binti Md. Zaini, Nur Aziemah Binti Mohamad, Nurul Suffiyah Binti Sa’Dun, Sabrina Sasha Izzati Binti Zubaile, Umi Huwaina Binti Ahmiruddin, Wan Nur Shafawati Binti Wan Ghazali

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A hazard alert is intended to provide brief information about significant incidents or existing difficulties in Department workplaces. The alert gives guidelines for proper processes, practices, and controls to be applied. When operated in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions, any machine or tool utilized at work provides a safe and dependable platform for workers to accomplish job duties. However, when not utilized appropriately, the machine might pose a major hazard to employees. Employers have a duty to keep employees safe in this scenario. This Hazard Alert outlines specific occupational dangers and the controls that employers must apply to prevent injury or fatal accidents. There have been several cases of hazard alerts in Malaysia, which have had a negative impact on a few workers. Looking on the bright side, we can overcome every incident in a variety of ways. One of these is that only qualified individuals operate mobile machinery and equipment. In addition, employees may also perform frequent pre-use inspections of machinery to discover and fix flaws. Hazard alert is very important, and this study would cover a variety of subjects, including the methods employed.

Keywords: safe, hazard, impacts, duties.

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Authors: M. Z. Ramli, A. Adnan, Chee Wei Tan

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To gain a better understanding of earthquake forces on reinforced concrete bridge piers with different bearing condition, a series of experiments was conducted on a realistic, 1:4 scale reinforced concrete bridge pier. The normal practices of laminated seismic isolation bearing is compared with the new design spring seismic isolation bearing where invented by Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research (e-SEER), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. The nonlinear behavior of piers is modeled using the fibre beam theory to verify the experimental works. The hysteresis of bridge pier with different bearing condition was illustrated under different Peak Ground Acceleration (PGAs). The average slope of the hysteresis respectively to the global stiffness was also investigated.

Keywords: bridge, laminated seismic isolation, spring seismic isolation, Peak Ground Acceleration, stiffness

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Authors: Collins Chiemeke, Stephen Ibe, Godwin Onyedim

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This research work on high-resolution seismic tomography method was carried out with the aim of investigating how near-surface geology influences the initial distribution of infrastructural development in an area like Otuoke and its environs. To achieve this objective, seismic tomography method was employed. The result revealed that the overburden (highly-weathered layer) thickness ranges from 27 m to 50 m within the survey area, with an average value of 37 m. The 3D surface analysis for the overburden thickness distribution within the survey area showed that the thickness of the overburden is more in regions with less infrastructural development, and least in built-up areas. The range of velocity distribution from the surface to within a depth of 5 m is about 660 m/s to 1160 m/s, with an average value of 946 m/s. The 3D surface analysis of the velocity distribution also revealed that the areas with large infrastructural development are characterized with large velocity values compared with the undeveloped regions that has average low-velocity values. Hence, one can conclusively say that the initial settlement of Otuoke and its environs and the subsequent infrastructural development was influenced by the underlying near surface geology (rigid earth), among other factors.

Keywords: geology, seismic, infrastructural, near-surface

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Authors: Ariel Barel, Rotem Manor, Alfred M. Bruckstein

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We present a probabilistic gathering algorithm for agents that can only detect the presence of other agents in front of or behind them. The agents act in the plane and are identical and indistinguishable, oblivious, and lack any means of direct communication. They do not have a common frame of reference in the plane and choose their orientation (direction of possible motion) at random. The analysis of the gathering process assumes that the agents act synchronously in selecting random orientations that remain fixed during each unit time-interval. Two algorithms are discussed. The first one assumes discrete jumps based on the sensing results given the randomly selected motion direction, and in this case, extensive experimental results exhibit probabilistic clustering into a circular region with radius equal to the step-size in time proportional to the number of agents. The second algorithm assumes agents with continuous sensing and motion, and in this case, we can prove gathering into a very small circular region in finite expected time.

Keywords: control, decentralized, gathering, multi-agent, simple sensors

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Authors: Jikhil Joseph, Satish Kumar S R.

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Cold-formed steel frames are preferable for framed constructions due to its low seismic weights and results into low seismic forces, but on the contrary, significant lateral deflections are expected under seismic/wind loading. The various factors affecting the lateral stiffness of steel frames are the stiffness of connections, beams and columns. So, by increasing the stiffness of beam, column and making the connections rigid will enhance the lateral stiffness. The present study focused on Structural elements made of rectangular hollow sections and fastened with screwed in-plane moment connections for the building frames. The self-drilling screws can be easily drilled on either side of the connection area with the help of gusset plates. The strength of screwed connections can be made 1.2 times the connecting elements. However, achieving high stiffness in connections is also a challenging job. Hence in addition to beam and column stiffness’s the connection stiffness are also going to be a governing parameter in the lateral deflections of the frames. SAP 2000 Non-linear static analysis has been planned to study the seismic behavior of steel frames. The SAP model will be consisting of nonlinear spring model for the connection to account the semi-rigid connections and the nonlinear hinges will be assigned for beam and column sections according to FEMA 273 guidelines. The reliable spring and hinge parameters will be assigned based on an experimental and analytical database. The non-linear static analysis is mainly focused on the identification of various hinge formations and the estimation of lateral deflection and these will contribute as an inputs for the direct displacement-based Seismic design. The research output from this study are the modelling techniques and suitable design guidelines for the performance-based seismic design of cold-formed steel frames.

Keywords: buckling, cold formed steel, nonlinear static analysis, screwed connections

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis

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Authors: Safwat E. Musa, Nuha E. Mohamed, Nuha A. Bagi

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In this study, several crossplots of the P-impedance with the lithology logs (gamma ray, neutron porosity, deep resistivity, water saturation and Vp/Vs curves) were made in three available wells, which were drilled in central part of the Blue Nile basin in depths varies from 1460 m to 1600 m. These crossplots were successful to discriminate between sand and shale when using P-Impedance values, and between the wet sand and the pay sand when using both P-impedance and Vp/Vs together. Also, some impedance sections were converted to porosity sections using linear formula to characterize the reservoir in terms of porosity. The used crossplots were created on log resolution, while the seismic resolution can identify only the reservoir, unless a 3D seismic angle stacks were available; then it would be easier to identify the pay sand with great confidence; through high resolution seismic inversion and geostatistical approach when using P-impedance and Vp/Vs volumes.

Keywords: basin, Blue Nile, inversion, seismic

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Authors: Akram Khelaifia, Nesreddine Djafar Henni

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Reinforced concrete shear walls are essential components in protecting buildings from seismic forces by providing both strength and stiffness. This study focuses on optimizing the placement of shear walls in a high seismic zone. Through nonlinear analyses conducted on an eight-story building, various scenarios of shear wall positions are investigated to evaluate their impact on seismic performance. Employing a performance-based seismic design (PBSD) approach, the study aims to meet acceptance criteria related to inter-story drift ratio and damage levels. The findings emphasize the importance of concentrating shear walls in the central area of the building during the design phase. This strategic placement proves more effective compared to peripheral distributions, resulting in reduced inter-story drift and mitigated potential damage during seismic events. Additionally, the research explores the use of shear walls that completely infill the frame, forming compound shapes like Box configurations. It is discovered that incorporating such complete shear walls significantly enhances the structure's reliability concerning inter-story drift. Conversely, the absence of complete shear walls within the frame leads to reduced stiffness and the potential deterioration of short beams.

Keywords: performance level, pushover analysis, shear wall, plastic hinge, nonlinear analyses

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Tahir Mehmood, Pennung Warnitchai

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Simplified static analysis procedures such Nonlinear Static Procedure (NSP) are gaining popularity for the seismic evaluation of buildings. However, these simplified procedures accounts only for the seismic responses of the fundamental vibration mode of the structure. Some other procedures which can take into account the higher modes of vibration, lack in accuracy to determine the component responses. Hence, such procedures are not suitable for evaluating the structures where many vibration modes may participate significantly or where component responses are needed to be evaluated. Moreover, these procedures were found to either computationally expensive or tedious to obtain individual component responses. In this paper, a simplified but accurate procedure is studied. It is called the Uncoupled Modal Response History Analysis (UMRHA) procedure. In this procedure, the nonlinear response of each vibration mode is first computed, and they are later on combined into the total response of the structure. The responses of four tall buildings are computed by this simplified UMRHA procedure and compared with those obtained from the NLRHA procedure. The comparison shows that the UMRHA procedure is able to accurately compute the global responses, i.e., story shears and story overturning moments, floor accelerations and inter-story drifts as well as the component level responses of these tall buildings with heights varying from 20 to 44 stories. The required computational effort is also extremely low compared to that of the Nonlinear Response History Analysis (NLRHA) procedure.

Keywords: higher mode effects, seismic evaluation procedure, tall buildings, component responses

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Authors: Shahrzad Mohammadi, Ghasem Boshrouei Sharq

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All seismic design codes are based on the determination of the design earthquake without taking into account the effects of aftershocks in the design practice. In regions with a high level of seismicity, the occurrence of several aftershocks of various magnitudes and different time lags is very likely. This research aims to estimate the collapse capacity of a 10-story steel bundled tube moment frame subjected to as-recorded seismic sequences. The studied structure is designed according to the seismic regulations of the fourth revision of the Iranian code of practice for the seismic-resistant design of buildings (Code No.2800). A series of incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) is performed up to the collapse level of the intact structure. Then, in order to demonstrate the effects of aftershock events on the collapse vulnerability of the building, aftershock IDA analyzes are carried out. To gain deeper insight, collapse fragility curves are developed and compared for both series. Also, a study on the influence of various ground motion characteristics on collapse capacity is carried out. The results highlight the importance of considering the decisive effects of aftershocks in seismic codes due to their contribution to the occurrence of collapse.

Keywords: IDA, aftershock, bundled tube frame, fragility assessment, GM characteristics, as-recorded seismic sequences

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Authors: Ali Etemadi, Claudia Fernanda Yasar

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Elevated water storage tank structures (EWSTs) are high elevated-ponderous structural systems and very vulnerable to seismic vibrations. In past earthquake events, many of these structures exhibit poor performance and experienced severe damage. The dynamic analysis of the EWSTs under earthquake loads is, therefore, of significant importance for the design of the structure and a key issue for the development of modern methods, such as active control design. In this study, a reduced model of the EWSTs is explained, which is based on a tuned mass damper model (TMD). Vibration analysis of a structure under seismic excitation is presented and then used to propose an active vibration controller. MATLAB/Simulink is employed for dynamic analysis of the system and control of the seismic response. A single degree of freedom (SDOF) and two degree of freedom (2DOF) models of ELSTs are going to be used to study the concept of active vibration control. Lab-scale experimental models similar to pendulum are applied to suppress vibrations in ELST under seismic excitation. One of the most important phenomena in liquid storage tanks is the oscillation of fluid due to the movements of the tank body because of its base motions during an earthquake. Simulation results illustrate that the EWSTs vibration can be reduced by means of an input shaping technique that takes into account the dominant mode shape of the structure. Simulations with which to guide many of our designs are presented in detail. A simple and effective real-time control for seismic vibration damping can be, therefore, design and built-in practice.

Keywords: elevated water storage tank, tuned mass damper model, real time control, shaping control, seismic vibration control, the laplace transform

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Authors: Asif Arshid, Ying Huang, Denver Tolliver

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Finite Element (FE) method coupled with ever-increasing computational powers has substantially advanced the reliability of deterministic three dimensional structural analyses of a structure with uniform material properties. However, railways trackbed is made up of diverse group of materials including steel, wood, rock and soil, while each material has its own varying levels of heterogeneity and imperfections. It is observed that the application of probabilistic methods for trackbed structural analysis while incorporating the material and geometric variabilities is deeply underworked. The authors developed and validated a 3-dimensional FE based numerical trackbed model and in this study, they investigated the influence of variability in Young modulus and thicknesses of granular layers (Ballast and Subgrade) on the reliability index (-index) of the subgrade layer. The influence of these factors is accounted for by changing their Coefficients of Variance (COV) while keeping their means constant. These variations are formulated using Gaussian Normal distribution. Two failure mechanisms in subgrade namely Progressive Shear Failure and Excessive Plastic Deformation are examined. Preliminary results of risk-based probabilistic analysis for Progressive Shear Failure revealed that the variations in Ballast depth are the most influential factor for vertical stress at the top of subgrade surface. Whereas, in case of Excessive Plastic Deformations in subgrade layer, the variations in its own depth and Young modulus proved to be most important while ballast properties remained almost indifferent. For both these failure moods, it is also observed that the reliability index for subgrade failure increases with the increase in COV of ballast depth and subgrade Young modulus. The findings of this work is of particular significance in studying the combined effect of construction imperfections and variations in ground conditions on the structural performance of railroad trackbed and evaluating the associated risk involved. In addition, it also provides an additional tool to supplement the deterministic analysis procedures and decision making for railroad maintenance.

Keywords: finite element analysis, numerical modeling, probabilistic methods, risk and reliability analysis, subgrade

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Authors: Almalki M., Alajmi M., Qadrouh Y., Alzahrani E., Sulaiman A., Aleid M., Albaiji A., Alfaifi H., Alhadadi A., Almotairy H., Alrasheed R., Alhafedh Y.

Abstract:

High-resolution marine seismic survey is a well-established technique that commonly used to characterize near-surface sediments and geological structures at shallow water. We conduct single channel seismic survey to provide high quality seismic images for near-surface sediments upto 100m depth at Jubal costal area, Arabian Gulf. Eight hydrophones streamer has been used to collect stacked seismic traces alone 5km seismic line. To reach the required depth, we have used spark system that discharges energies above 5000 J with expected frequency output span the range from 200 to 2000 Hz. A suitable processing flow implemented to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the seismic profile. We have found that shallow sedimentary layers at the study site have complex pattern of reflectivity, which decay significantly due to amount of source energy used as well as the multiples associated to seafloor. In fact, the results reveal that single channel marine seismic at shallow water is a cost-effective technique that can be easily repeated to observe any possibly changes in the wave physical properties at the near surface layers

Keywords: shallow marine single-channel data, high resolution, frequency filtering, shallow water

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Authors: Ketan N. Bajad, Manisha V. Waghmare

Abstract:

Earthquakes are the biggest threat to the civil engineering structures as every year it cost billions of dollars and thousands of deaths, around the world. There are various experimental techniques such as pseudo-dynamic tests – nonlinear structural dynamic technique, real time pseudo dynamic test and shaking table test method that can be employed to verify the seismic performance of structures. Shake table is a device that is used for shaking structural models or building components which are mounted on it. It is a device that simulates a seismic event using existing seismic data and nearly truly reproducing earthquake inputs. This paper deals with the use of shaking table test method to check the response of structure subjected to earthquake. The various types of shake table are vertical shake table, horizontal shake table, servo hydraulic shake table and servo electric shake table. The goal of this experiment is to perform seismic analysis of a civil engineering structure with the help of 3 degree of freedom (i.e. in X Y Z direction) shake table. Three (3) DOF shaking table is a useful experimental apparatus as it imitates a real time desired acceleration vibration signal for evaluating and assessing the seismic performance of structure. This study proceeds with the proper designing and erection of 3 DOF shake table by trial and error method. The table is designed to have a capacity up to 981 Newton. Further, to study the seismic response of a steel industrial building, a proportionately scaled down model is fabricated and tested on the shake table. The accelerometer is mounted on the model, which is used for recording the data. The experimental results obtained are further validated with the results obtained from software. It is found that model can be used to determine how the structure behaves in response to an applied earthquake motion, but the model cannot be used for direct numerical conclusions (such as of stiffness, deflection, etc.) as many uncertainties involved while scaling a small-scale model. The model shows modal forms and gives the rough deflection values. The experimental results demonstrate shake table as the most effective and the best of all methods available for seismic assessment of structure.

Keywords: accelerometer, three degree of freedom shake table, seismic analysis, steel industrial shed

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Dawei Shen, Ming Xu, Pengfei Liu

Abstract:

The joints between simply supported bridge decks and abutments need to be regularly repaired, which would greatly increase the cost during the service life of the bridge. Simply supported girder bridges suffered the most severe damage during earthquakes. Another type of bridge, the integral bridge, of which the superstructure and abutment are rigidly connected, was also used in some European countries. Because no bearings or joints exit in the integral bridge, this type of bridge could significantly reduce maintenance requirements and costs. However, conventional integral bridge usually result in high earth pressure on the abutment and surface settlement in the backfill. To solve these problems, a new type of integral bridge, geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) integral bridge, was come up in recent years. This newly invented bridge has not been used in engineering practices. There was a lack of research on the seismic behavior of the conventional and new type of integral abutments. In addition, no common design code could be found for the calculation of seismic pressure of soil behind the abutment. This paper developed a dynamic constitutive model, which can consider the soil behaviors under cyclic loading. Numerical analyses of the seismic response of a full height integral bridge and GRS integral bridge were carried out using the two-dimensional numerical code, FLAC. A parametric study was also performed to investigate the soil-structure interaction. The results are presented below. The seismic responses of GRS integral bridge together with conventional simply supported bridge, GRS conventional bridge and conventional integral bridge were investigated. The results show that the GRS integral bridge holds the highest seismic stability, followed by conventional integral bridge, GRS simply supported bridge and conventional simply supported bridge. Compared with the integral bridge with 1 m thick abutments, the GRS integral bridge with 0.4 m thick abutments is subjected to a smaller bending moment, and the natural frequency and horizontal displacement remains almost the same. Geosynthetic-reinforcement will be more effective when the abutment becomes thinner or the abutment is higher.

Keywords: geosynthetic-reinforced soil integral bridge, nonlinear hysteretic model, numerical analysis, seismic response

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Authors: Archil Motsonelidze, Vitaly Dvalishvili

Abstract:

Existing roller compacted concrete (RCC) dams indicate that the layer-by-layer construction method gives considerable economies as compared with the conventional methods. RCC dams have also gained acceptance in the regions of high seismic activity. Earthquake resistance analysis of RCC gravity dams based on nonlinear finite element technique is presented. An elastic-plastic approach is used to describe the material of a dam while it is under static conditions (period of construction). Seismic force, as an acceleration equivalent to that produced by a real earthquake, is supposed to act when the dam is completed. The materials of the dam and foundation may be nonhomogeneous and anisotropic. The “dam-foundation” system is idealized as a plain strain problem.

Keywords: finite element method, layer-by-layer construction, RCC dams, strength analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 527

Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

Abstract:

Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 141