Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Baobao Li

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Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: Anikó Kaluzsa

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The article's author aims to introduce and analyze those microbiological safety hazards which indicate the presence of secondary contamination in the water supply system. Since drinking water belongs to primary foods and is the basic condition of life, special attention should be paid on its quality. There are such indicators among the microbiological features can be found in water, which are clear evidence of the presence of water contamination, and based on this there is no need to perform other diagnostics, because they prove properly the contamination of the given water supply section. Laboratory analysis can help - both technologically and temporally – to identify contamination, but it does matter how long takes the removal and if the disinfection process takes place in time. The identification of the factors that often occur in the same places or the chance of their occurrence is greater than the average, facilitates our work. The pathogen microbiological risk assessment by the help of several features determines the most likely occurring microbiological features in the Carpathian basin. From among all the microbiological indicators, that are recommended targets for routine inspection by the World Health Organization, there is a paramount importance of the appearance of Escherichia coli in the water network, as its presence indicates the potential ubietiy of enteric pathogens or other contaminants in the water network. In addition, the author presents the steps of microbiological risk assessment analyzing those pathogenic micro-organisms registered to be the most critical.

Keywords: drinking water, E. coli, microbiological indicators, risk assessment, water safety plan

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Authors: Asnawi Mohd Busrah, Au Mau Teng, Tan Chin Hooi, Lau Chee Chong

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This paper describes value based planning (VBP) methodology incorporating risk assessment as an enhanced and more practical approach to evaluate distribution network projects in Peninsular Malaysia. Assessment indicators associated with economics, performance and risks are formulated to evaluate distribution projects to quantify their benefits against investment. The developed methodology is implemented in a web-based software customized to capture investment and network data, compute assessment indicators and rank the proposed projects according to their benefits. Value based planning approach addresses economic factors in the power distribution planning assessment, so as to minimize cost solution to the power utility while at the same time provide maximum benefits to customers.

Keywords: value based planning, distribution network, value of loss load (VoLL), energy not served (ENS)

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Authors: Rula D. Alshareef, Safa S. Alqathmi, Ghadah K. Alkhouldi, Reem O. Bagabas, Farheen B. Hasan

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Safety engineering is among the most crucial considerations in any work environment. Providing mentally, physically, and environmentally safe work conditions must be the top priority of any successful organization. Company X is a local paint production company in Saudi Arabia; in a month, the factory experienced two significant accidents, which indicates that workers’ safety is overlooked. The aim of the research is to examine the risks, assess the root causes and recommend control measures that will eventually contribute to providing a safe workplace. The methodology used is sectioned into three phases, risk identification, assessment, and finally, mitigation. In the identification phase, the team used Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Lifting Index (NIOSH LI) tools to holistically establish knowledge about the current risk posed to the factory. The physical hazards in the factory were assessed in two different operations, which are mixing and filling/packaging. For the risk assessment phase, the hazards were deeply analyzed through their severity and impact. Additionally, through risk mitigation, the Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) score decreased from 11 to 7, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Lifting Index (NIOSH LI) has been reduced from 5.27 to 1.85.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, workplace risks, hazards, awkward posture, fatigue, work environment

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: behavior-based advising, financial relationship building, risk capacity based on behavior, risk tolerance, systematic way to assist in financial relationship building

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Christian Perrin, Nicholas Blagden, Louise Allen, Sarah Impey

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Social workers in the UK and professionals globally are faced with a particular challenge when dealing with allegations of child sexual abuse (CSA) in the community. In the absence of a conviction or incontestable evidence, staff can often find themselves unable to take decisive action to remove a child from harm, even though there may be a credible threat to their welfare. Conversely, practitioners may over-calculate risk through fear of being accountable for harm. This is, in part, due to the absence of a structured and evidence-based risk assessment tool which can predict the likelihood of a person committing child sexual abuse. Such assessments are often conducted by forensic professionals who utilise offence-specific data and personal history information to calculate risk. In situations where only allegations underpin a case, this mode of assessment is not viable. There are further ethical issues surrounding the assessment of risk in this area which require expert consideration and sensitive planning. This paper explores this entangled problem extant in the wider call to prevent sexual and child sexual abuse in the community. To this end, 32 qualitative interviews were undertaken with social workers dealing with CSA cases. Results were analysed using thematic analysis and operationalised to formulate a risk and protection protocol for use in case management. This paper reports on the early findings associated with the initial indications of protocol reliability. Implications for further research and practice are discussed.

Keywords: sexual offending, child sexual offence, offender rehabilitation, risk assessment, offence prevention

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Authors: B. M. Alshammari, M. A. El-Kady

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This paper presents a unified framework for assessment of reserve-based reliability levels in electric power systems. The unified approach is based on reserve-based analysis and assessment of the relationship between available generation capacities and required demand levels. The developed approach takes into account the load variations as well as contingencies which occur randomly causing some generation and/or transmission capacities to be lost (become unavailable). The calculated reserve based indices, which are important to assess the reserve capabilities of the power system for various operating scenarios are therefore probabilistic in nature. They reflect the fact that neither the load levels nor the generation or transmission capacities are known with absolute certainty. They are rather subjects to random variations and consequently. The calculated reserve-based reliability indices are all subjects to random variations where only expected values of these indices can be evaluated. This paper presents a unified approach to reserve-based reliability assessment of power systems using various reserve assessment criteria. Practical applications are also presented for demonstration purposes to the Saudi electricity power grid.

Keywords: assessment, power system, reserve, reliability

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Pinar Ercan, Bulut Mert

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The baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Some bakeries in Izmır Turkey was evaluated according to occupational health and safety. First of all, the production process was evaluated. The survey was administered to a total of 50 employees. The survey consisted of two sections. The first one comprised only demographic questions and items related to job characteristics. The remaining section was assessing the satisfaction and confidence about occupational health and safety in terms of employees consist of a 10-item questionnaire by using HSE (2010) survey with some modifications. Also, hazards, risks and control measures in the bakeries were determined. Risk assessment has been done by the use of '5x5 Risk Assessment Table' for this purpose.

Keywords: bakeries, occupational health and safety, hazards, risks, risk assessment

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Authors: Giovanni Menichini, Salvatore Giacomo Morano, Gloria Terenzi, Luca Salvatori, Maurizio Orlando

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The “Guidelines for Risk Classification, Safety Assessment, and Structural Health Monitoring of Existing Bridges” were recently approved by the Italian Government to define technical standards for managing the national network of existing bridges. These guidelines provide a framework for risk mitigation and safety assessment of bridges, which are essential elements of the built environment and form the basis for the operation of transport systems. Within the guideline framework, a workflow based on three main points was proposed: (1) risk-based, i.e., based on typical parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; (2) multi-level, i.e., including six assessment levels of increasing complexity; and (3) multirisk, i.e., assessing structural/foundational, seismic, hydrological, and landslide risks. The paper focuses on applying the Italian Guidelines to specific case studies, aiming to identify the parameters that predominantly influence the determination of the “class of attention”. The significance of each parameter is determined via sensitivity analysis. Additionally, recommendations for enhancing the process of assigning the class of attention are proposed.

Keywords: bridge safety assessment, Italian guidelines implementation, risk classification, structural health monitoring

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

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A reliability-based methodology for the analysis assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for structural elements are verified by the results obtained from the deterministic methods. The analysis outcomes of reliability-based analysis are compared against the safety limits of the required reliability index β according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) related to the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the reinforced concrete elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: structural reliability, concrete structures, FORM, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Tomohiro Uchida, Noriaki Satake, Toshimichi Nakaho, Akira Inoue, Hidemitsu Saito

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In this study, we assessed the bereavement risk of family caregivers of patients with cancer. In the palliative care unit of Tohoku University Hospital, we conducted a family psychoeducation session to support the family caregivers of patients with cancer. A total of 50 participants (8 males and 42 females; mean age = 62.98 years, SD = 11.10) were assessed after the session for bereavement risk using the Japanese version of the Bereavement Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT-J). According to the BRAT-J scores, eight participants were considered to be having no known risk (Level 1), seventeen had minimal risk (Level 2), twenty had a low risk (Level 3), four had a moderate risk (Level 4), and one had a high risk (Level 5). Of these participants, seven participants had completed the follow-up postal survey that assessed their psychological distress (the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale: K6) to compare the bereavement risk. According to the K6 scores, three-fourth of the individuals, who were considered to be at Level 3 on the BRAT-J, scored higher than the cutoff point (>10) for the detection of depressive disorder. On the other hand, one-third of the individuals, who were considered to be at Level 2 on the BRAT-J, scored higher than the cutoff point. Therefore, it appears that the BRAT-J can predict the likelihood of difficulties or complications in bereaved family caregivers. This research was approved by the Ethics Committee of Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine and Tohoku University Hospital.

Keywords: palliative care, family caregivers, bereavement risk, BRAT, post-loss psychological distress

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Adnan A. Y. Mustafa

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In this paper we present a quick technique to measure the similarity between binary images. The technique is based on a probabilistic mapping approach and is fast because only a minute percentage of the image pixels need to be compared to measure the similarity, and not the whole image. We exploit the power of the Probabilistic Matching Model for Binary Images (PMMBI) to arrive at an estimate of the similarity. We show that the estimate is a good approximation of the actual value, and the quality of the estimate can be improved further with increased image mappings. Furthermore, the technique is image size invariant; the similarity between big images can be measured as fast as that for small images. Examples of trials conducted on real images are presented.

Keywords: big images, binary images, image matching, image similarity

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Authors: Sean Sloan

Abstract:

Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

Abstract:

Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of s83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and diisobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed greater detection rate compared to other PAEs monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in the sediment samples compared to the water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.03 ± 0.01 to 0.29 ± 0.002 ppm and 3.99 ± 0.43 to 6.04 ± 1.25 ppm, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be high which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthaletes, assessment, marine pollution, endocrine

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Authors: Ezri Coda, Kris Justine Miparanum, Relvin Jay Sale

Abstract:

The study dealt on suicide risk level of college students in UM Tagum College. The primary goal of the study was to assess the level of suicide risk among students at the UM Tagum College in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury utilizing quantitative non- experimental study with 380 students in UM Tagum College as respondents of the study. Mean was the statistical tools used for the data treatment. Moreover, the study aims to determine the mean of the level of the suicide risk assessment in terms of program, type of student, age, year level, civil status and gender, and lastly, to design an intervention program for those identified students with high suicide risk. Results showed a low level of suicide risk in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury.

Keywords: suicide risk, perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation, acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury, UM Tagum College, Philippines

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Authors: Alina Svechkina, Boris A. Portnov

Abstract:

In line with a rapid increase in pollution sources and enforcement of stricter air pollution regulation, which lowers pollution levels, it becomes more difficult to identify actual risk sources behind the observed morbidity patterns, and new approaches are required to identify potential risks and take preventive actions. In the present study, we discuss a probabilistic approach to the spatial identification of a priori unidentified environmental health hazards. The underlying assumption behind the tested approach is that the observed adverse health patterns (morbidity, mortality) can become a source of information on the geographic location of environmental risk factors that stand behind them. Using this approach, we analyzed sources of environmental exposure using data on mortality rates available for the year 2015 for NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) subdivisions of the European Union. We identified several areas in the southwestern part of Europe as primary risk sources for the observed mortality patterns. Multivariate regressions, controlled by geographical location, climate conditions, GDP (gross domestic product) per capita, dependency ratios, population density, and the level of road freight revealed that mortality rates decline as a function of distance from the identified hazard location. We recommend the proposed approach an exploratory analysis tool for initial investigation of regional patterns of population morbidity patterns and factors behind it.

Keywords: mortality, environmental hazards, air pollution, distance decay gradient, multi regression analysis, Europe, NUTS3

Procedia PDF Downloads 135