Search results for: panel stochastic frontier models

Authors: Nikolaos Mamalis

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The work of the eminent architect and composer has undoubtedly been influenced both by his architecture and collaboration with Le Corbusier and by the conquests of the musical avant-garde of the 20th century (Schoenberg, Messian, Bartock, electroacoustic music). It is known that the golden mean and the Fibonacci sequence played a momentous role in the Architectural Avant-garde (Modulor) and expanded on musical pursuits. Especially in the 50s (serialism), it was a structural tool for composition. Xenakis' architectural and musical work (Sacrifice, Metastasis, Rebonds, etc.) received the influence of the Golden Section, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. However, the idea of this retrospective sequence and the reflection raised by the search for new proportions, both in the architectural and the musical work of Xenakis, was not limited to constituting a step, a workable formula that acted unifyingly with regard to the other parameters of the musical work, or as an aesthetic model that makes sense - philosophically and poetically - an anthropocentric dimension as in other composers (see Luigi Nono) ̇ triggered a qualitative leap, an opening of the composer to the assimilation of mathematical concepts and scientific types in music and the consolidation of new sound horizons of stochastic music.

Keywords: golden ratio, music, space, stochastic music

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Authors: Bongsu Choi, Tae-Ho Song

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Vacuum insulation panel (VIP) is a promising thermal insulator for buildings, refrigerator, LNG carrier and so on. In general, it has the thermal conductivity of 2~4 mW/m•K. However, this thermal conductivity is that measured at the center of VIP. The total effective thermal conductivity of VIP is larger than this value due to the edge conduction through the envelope. In this paper, the edge conduction of VIP is examined theoretically, numerically and experimentally. To confirm the existence of the edge conduction, numerical analysis is performed for simple two-dimensional VIP model and a theoretical model is proposed to calculate the edge conductivity. Also, the edge conductivity is measured using the vacuum guarded hot plate and the experiment is validated against numerical analysis. The results show that the edge conductivity is dependent on the width of panel and thickness of Al-foil. To reduce the edge conduction, it is recommended that the VIP should be made as big as possible or made of thin Al film envelope.

Keywords: envelope, edge conduction, thermal conductivity, vacuum insulation panel

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Authors: Burcu Guvenek, Duygu Baysal Kurt

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The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been discussed since the Classical Economists. Today, foreign trade has become more important for the country's economy with the increasing globalization. When it comes to foreign trade, policies which may vary from country to country and from time to time as protectionism or free trade are implemented. In general, the positive effect of foreign trade on economic growth is alleged. However, as studies supporting this general acceptance take place in the economics literature, there are also studies in the opposite direction. In this paper, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth will be investigated with the help of panel data analysis. For this research, 24 OECD countries’ GDP and foreign trade data, including the period of 1990 and 2010, will be used.

Keywords: foreign trade, economic growth, OECD countries, panel data analysis

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

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Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

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The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

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Authors: Issam Aouari, Abdelmalek Abdelhamid

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For seismologists, the characterization of seismic demand should include the amplitude and duration of strong shaking in the system. The duration of ground shaking is one of the key parameters in earthquake resistant design of structures. This paper proposes a nonlinear statistical model to estimate earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils using multiple seismicity indicators. Three definitions of ground motion duration proposed by literature have been applied. With a comparative study, we select the most significant definition to use for predict the duration. A stochastic model is presented for the McCann and Shah Method using nonlinear regression analysis based on a data set for moment magnitude, source to site distance and site conditions. The data set applied is taken from PEER strong motion databank and contains shallow earthquakes from different regions in the world; America, Turkey, London, China, Italy, Chili, Mexico...etc. Main emphasis is placed on soft site condition. The predictive relationship has been developed based on 600 records and three input indicators. Results have been compared with others published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils for different regions and sites conditions.

Keywords: duration, earthquake, prediction, regression, soft soil

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Authors: M. Abir Hossain, M. Shahjada Tarafder

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This paper deals with the analysis of potential flow past two-dimensional body by discretizing the body into panels where the Laplace equation was applied to each panel. The Laplace equation was solved at each panel by applying the boundary conditions. The boundary condition was applied at each panel to mathematically formulate the problem and then convert the problem into a computer-solvable problem. Kutta condition was applied at both the leading and trailing edges to see whether the condition is satisfied or not. Another approach that is applied for the analysis is Vortex Lattice Method (VLM). A vortex ring is considered at each control point. Using the Biot-Savart Law the strength at each control point is calculated and hence the pressure differentials are measured. For the comparison of the analytic result with the experimental result, different NACA section hydrofoil is used. The analytic result of NACA 0012 and NACA 0015 are compared with the experimental result of Abbott and Doenhoff and found significant conformity with the achieved result.

Keywords: Kutta condition, Law of Biot-Savart, pressure differentials, potential flow, vortex lattice method

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Authors: Kun Li, Yuzheng Liu, Xiuqi Fan

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High-security standard and high efficiency of screening seem to be contradictory to each other in the airport security check process. Improving the efficiency as far as possible while maintaining the same security standard is significantly meaningful. This paper utilizes the knowledge of Operation Research and Stochastic Process to establish mathematical models to explore this problem. We analyze the current process of airport security check and use the M/G/1 and M/G/k models in queuing theory to describe the process. Then we find the least efficient part is the pre-check lane, the bottleneck of the queuing system. To improve passenger throughput and reduce the variance of passengers’ waiting time, we adjust our models and use Monte Carlo method, then put forward three modifications: adjust the ratio of Pre-Check lane to regular lane flexibly, determine the optimal number of security check screening lines based on cost analysis and adjust the distribution of arrival and service time based on Monte Carlo simulation results. We also analyze the impact of cultural differences as the sensitivity analysis. Finally, we give the recommendations for the current process of airport security check process.

Keywords: queue theory, security check, stochatic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Jihad Daba, Jean-Pierre Dubois

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Multi path fading noise degrades the performance of cellular communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this paper have utilized a Poisson modulated and weighted generalized Laguerre polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multi-diversity stochastically local area fading channel when the channel consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering centers with a coherent specular Nakagami-distributed line of sight component and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.

Keywords: cellular communication, femto and pico-cells, stochastically local area fading channel, triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process

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Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

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Authors: Sarah Abdourraziq

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Photovoltaic (PV) water pumping system is one of the most used and important applications in the field of solar energy. However, the cost and the efficiency are still a concern, especially with continued change of solar radiation and temperature. Then, the improvement of the efficiency of the system components is a good solution to reducing the cost. The use of maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms to track the output maximum power point (MPP) of the PV panel is very important to improve the efficiency of the whole system. In this paper, we will present a definition of the functioning of MPPT technique, and a detailed model of each component of PV pumping system with Matlab-Simulink, the results shows the influence of the changing of solar radiation and temperature in the output characteristics of PV panel, which influence in the efficiency of the system. Our system consists of a PV generator, a boost converter, a motor-pump set, and storage tank.

Keywords: PV panel, boost converter, MPPT, MPP, PV pumping system

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Authors: Ishmael Tingbani

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This paper adopts a contingency theory approach to investigate the relationship between working capital management and profitability using data of 225 listed British firms on the London Stock Exchange for the period 2001-2011. The paper employs a panel data analysis on a series of interactive models to estimate this relationship. The findings of the study confirm the relevance of the contingency theory. Evidence from the study suggests that the impact of working capital management on profitability varies and is constrained by organizational contingencies (environment, resources, and management factors) of the firm. These findings have implications for a more balanced and nuanced view of working capital management policy for policy-makers.

Keywords: working capital management, profitability, contingency theory approach, interactive models

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Authors: Andre Kadandji, Mouhamadou Fall, Francois Koum Ekalle

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This paper aims to analyze the sound banking through the effects of the damage of the loan portfolio in the Cameroonian banking sector through the Z-score. The approach is to test the effect of other CAMEL indicators and macroeconomics indicators on the relationship between the non-performing loan and the soundness of Cameroonian banks. We use a dynamic panel data, made by 13 banks for the period 2010-2013. The analysis provides a model equations embedded in panel data. For the estimation, we use the generalized method of moments to understand the effects of macroeconomic and CAMEL type variables on the ability of Cameroonian banks to face a shock. We find that the management quality and macroeconomic variables neutralize the effects of the non-performing loan on the banks soundness.

Keywords: loan portfolio, sound banking, Z-score, dynamic panel

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Authors: S. Oladoyinbo, A. A. Tijani

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Multilevel inverters (MLI) are used at high power application based on their operation. There are 3 main types of multilevel inverters (MLI); diode clamped, flying capacitor and cascaded MLI. A cascaded MLI requires the least number of components to achieve same number of voltage levels when compared to other types of MLI while the flying capacitor has the minimum harmonic distortion. However, maximizing the advantage of cascaded H-bridge MLI and flying capacitor MLI, an improved MLI can be achieved with fewer components and better performance. In this paper an improved MLI is presented by asymmetrically integrating a flying capacitor to a cascaded H-bridge MLI also integrating an auxiliary transformer to the main transformer to decrease the total harmonics distortion (THD) with increased number of output voltage levels. Furthermore, the system is incorporated with a hybrid time and climate based solar panel cleaner and power selector which intelligently manage the input of the MLI and clean the solar panel weekly ensuring the environmental factor effect on the panel is reduced to minimum.

Keywords: multilevel inverter, total harmonics distortion, cascaded h-bridge inverter, flying capacitor

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Authors: Shahbaz G. Hassan

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Water quality models are very important to predict the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the water qualities, and to provide directions for selecting models in specific situation. Water quality models include one kind of model based on a mechanistic approach, while other models simulate water quality without considering a mechanism. Mechanistic models can be widely applied and have capabilities for long-time simulation, with highly complexity. Therefore, more spaces are provided to explain the principle and application experience of mechanistic models. Mechanism models have certain assumptions on rivers, lakes and estuaries, which limits the application range of the model, this paper introduces the principles and applications of water quality model based on the above three scenarios. On the other hand, mechanistic models are more easily to compute, and with no limit to the geographical conditions, but they cannot be used with confidence to simulate long term changes. This paper divides the empirical models into two broad categories according to the difference of mathematical algorithm, models based on artificial intelligence and models based on statistical methods.

Keywords: empirical models, mathematical, statistical, water quality

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Authors: S. Kumar, Rajesh Kumar, S. Mandal

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Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) is gaining popularity in many branch of engineering and various applications due to their light weight, specific strength per unit weight and high stiffness in particular direction. As the strength of material is high it can be used in thin walled structure as industrial roof sheds satisfying the strength constraint with comparatively lesser thickness. Analysis of bending behavior of FRP panel has been done here with variation in oriented angle of stiffener panels, fiber orientation, aspect ratio and boundary conditions subjected to transverse loading by using Finite Element Method. The effect of fiber orientation and thickness of ply has also been studied to determine the minimum thickness of ply for optimized section of stiffened FRP panel.

Keywords: bending behavior, fiber reinforced polymer, finite element method, orientation of stiffeners

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Authors: Silas A. Ihedioha

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In this work; it is considered that an investor’s portfolio is comprised of two assets; a risky stock which price process is driven by the geometric Brownian motion and a risk-free asset with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic interest rate of return, where consumption, taxes, transaction costs and dividends are involved. This paper aimed at the optimization of the investor’s expected utility of consumption and terminal return on his investment at the terminal time having power utility preference. Using dynamic optimization procedure of maximum principle, a second order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) (the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation HJB) was obtained from which an ordinary differential equation (ODE) obtained via elimination of variables. The solution to the ODE gave the closed form solution of the investor’s problem. It was found the optimal investment in the risky asset is horizon dependent and a ratio of the total amount available for investment and the relative risk aversion coefficient.

Keywords: optimal, investment, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, utility maximization, stochastic interest rate, maximum principle

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano

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This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.

Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: Hassan Manouzi

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We present in this paper a useful strategy to solve stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) involving stochastic coefficients. Using the Wick-product of higher order and the Wiener-Itˆo chaos expansion, the SPDEs is reformulated as a large system of deterministic partial differential equations. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. To obtain the chaos coefficients in the corresponding deterministic equations, we use a least square formulation. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: least squares, wick product, SPDEs, finite element, wiener chaos expansion, gradient method

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Authors: Ghania Zerari, Abderrezak Guessoum, Rachid Beguenane

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This paper introduces high-performance architecture for fully parallel stochastic Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) field programmable gate array (FPGA) based LDPC decoder. The new approach is designed to decrease the decoding latency and to reduce the FPGA logic utilisation. To accomplish the target logic utilisation reduction, the routing of the proposed sub-variable node (VN) internal memory is designed to utilize one slice distributed RAM. Furthermore, a VN initialization, using the channel input probability, is achieved to enhance the decoder convergence, without extra resources and without integrating the output saturated-counters. The Xilinx FPGA implementation, of IEEE 802.3an standard LDPC code, shows that the proposed decoding approach attain high performance along with reduction of FPGA logic utilisation.

Keywords: low-density parity-check (LDPC) decoder, stochastic decoding, field programmable gate array (FPGA), IEEE 802.3an standard

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Authors: Likewin Thomas, M. V. Manoj Kumar, B. Annappa

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The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network0 s recommendation model for an online process using the complexity of load, performance, and average servicing time of the resources. Here, the proposed model investigates the resource performance using stochastic gradient decent method for learning ranking function. A probabilistic cost function is implemented to identify the optimal θ values (load) on each resource. Based on this result the recommendation of resource suitable for performing the currently executing task is made. The test result of CoSeLoG project is presented with an accuracy of 72.856%.

Keywords: ADALINE, neural network, gradient decent, process mining, resource behaviour, polynomial regression model

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Authors: Eko Adhi Setiawan, Duli Asih Siregar, Aiman Setiawan

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Solar energy is abundant in nature, particularly in the tropics which have peak sun hour that can reach 8 hours per day. In the fabrication process, Photovoltaic’s (PV) performance are tested in standard test conditions (STC). It specifies a module temperature of 25°C, an irradiance of 1000 W/ m² with an air mass 1.5 (AM1.5) spectrum and zero wind speed. Thus, the results of the performance testing of PV at STC conditions cannot fully represent the performance of PV in the tropics. For example Indonesia, which has a temperature of 20-40°C. In this paper, the effect of temperature on the choice of the 5 kW AC inverter topology on the PV system such as the Central Inverter, String Inverter and AC-Module specifically for the tropics will be discussed. The proper inverter topology can be determined by analysis of the effect of temperature and irradiation on the PV panel. The effect of temperature and irradiation will be represented in the characteristics of I-V and P-V curves. PV’s characteristics on high temperature would be analyzed using Solar panel modeling through MATLAB Simulink based on mathematical equations that form Solar panel’s characteristic curve. Based on PV simulation, it is known then that temperature coefficients of short circuit current (ISC), open circuit voltage (VOC), and maximum output power (PMAX) consecutively as high as 0.56%/oC, -0.31%/oC and -0.4%/oC. Those coefficients can be used to calculate PV’s electrical parameters such as ISC, VOC, and PMAX in certain earth’s surface’s certain point. Then, from the parameters, the utility of the 5 kW AC inverter system can be determined. As the result, for tropical area, string inverter topology has the highest utility rates with 98, 80 %. On the other hand, central inverter and AC-Module Topology has utility rates of 92.69 % and 87.7 % eventually.

Keywords: Photovoltaic, PV-Inverter Configuration, PV Modeling, Solar Panel Characteristics.

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Authors: Rouaz Idriss, Bourahla Nour-Eddine, Kahlouche Farah, Rafa Sid Ali

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The stability of structures made of light-gauge steel depends highly on the contribution of Shear Wall Panel (SWP) systems under horizontal forces due to wind or earthquake loads. Steel plate sheathing is often used with these panels made of cold formed steel (CFS) to improve its shear strength. In order to predict the shear strength resistance, two methods are presented in this paper. In the first method, the steel plate sheathing is modeled with plats strip taking into account only the tension and compression force due to the horizontal load, where both track and stud are modeled according to the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the specimen used in the experiments. The theoretical background and empirical formulations of this method are presented in this paper. However, the second method is based on a micro modeling of the cold formed steel Shear Wall Panel “CFS-SWP” using Abaqus software. A nonlinear analysis was carried out with an in-plan monotonic load. Finally, the comparison between these two methods shows that the micro modeling with Abaqus gives better prediction of shear resistance of SWP than strips method. However, the latter is easier and less time consuming than the micro modeling method.

Keywords: cold formed steel 'CFS', shear wall panel, strip method, finite elements

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Authors: Adewale Oladapo, Carolyn A. Afolami

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Agricultural production should be the major financial contributor to the Nigerian economy; however, the petroleum sector had taken the importance attached to this sector. The situation tends to be more worsening unless necessary attention is given to adequate credit supply among food crop farmers. This research analyses the effect of credit use on the technical efficiency of cassava farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from two hundred randomly selected cassava farmers through a multistage sampling procedure in the study area. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Findings revealed that 95.0% of the farmers were male while 56.0% had no formal education and were married. The SFA showed that cassava farmer’s efficiency increased with farm size, herbicide and planting material at 5%,10% and 1% respectively but decreased with fertilizer application at 1% level while farmers’ age, education, household size, experience and access to credit increased technical inefficiency at 10%. The study concluded that cassava farmers are technically inefficient in the use of farm resources and recommended that adequate and workable agricultural policy measures that will ensure availability and efficient fertilizer distribution should be put in place to increase efficiency. Furthermore, the government should encourage youth participation in cassava production and ensure improvement in farmer’s access to credit to increase farmer’s technical efficiency.

Keywords: agriculture, access to credit, cassava farmers, technical efficiency

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

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Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

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Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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Authors: Luis Guilherme Resende Santos, Ido Nevat, Leslie Norford

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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by increased air temperatures in urban areas compared to undeveloped rural surrounding environments. With urbanization and densification, the intensity of UHI increases, bringing negative impacts on livability, health and economy. In order to reduce those effects, it is required to take into consideration design factors when planning future developments. Given design constraints such as population size and availability of area for development, non-trivial decisions regarding the buildings’ dimensions and their spatial distribution are required. We develop a framework for optimization of urban design in order to jointly minimize UHI intensity and buildings’ energy consumption. First, the design constraints are defined according to spatial and population limits in order to establish realistic boundaries that would be applicable in real life decisions. Second, the tools Urban Weather Generator (UWG) and EnergyPlus are used to generate outputs of UHI intensity and total buildings’ energy consumption, respectively. Those outputs are changed based on a set of variable inputs related to urban morphology aspects, such as building height, urban canyon width and population density. Lastly, an optimization problem is cast where the utility function quantifies the performance of each design candidate (e.g. minimizing a linear combination of UHI and energy consumption), and a set of constraints to be met is set. Solving this optimization problem is difficult, since there is no simple analytic form which represents the UWG and EnergyPlus models. We therefore cannot use any direct optimization techniques, but instead, develop an indirect “black box” optimization algorithm. To this end we develop a solution that is based on stochastic optimization method, known as the Cross Entropy method (CEM). The CEM translates the deterministic optimization problem into an associated stochastic optimization problem which is simple to solve analytically. We illustrate our model on a typical residential area in Singapore. Due to fast growth in population and built area and land availability generated by land reclamation, urban planning decisions are of the most importance for the country. Furthermore, the hot and humid climate in the country raises the concern for the impact of UHI. The problem presented is highly relevant to early urban design stages and the objective of such framework is to guide decision makers and assist them to include and evaluate urban microclimate and energy aspects in the process of urban planning.

Keywords: building energy consumption, stochastic optimization, urban design, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Ahmet Kaya

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Quantum mechanism is one of the most important approaches to calculating non-ruin probability. We apply standard Dirac notation to model given Hamiltonians. By using the traditional method and eigenvector basis, non-ruin probability is found for several examples. Also, non-ruin probability is calculated for two different Hamiltonian by using the tensor product. Finally, the path integral method is applied to the examples and comparison is made for stochastic simulations and path integral calculation.

Keywords: quantum physics, Hamiltonian system, path integral, tensor product, ruin probability

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