Search results for: packet loss probability

Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

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This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation

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Authors: Mary Anne Roa

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Congestion in network occurs due to exceed in aggregate demand as compared to the accessible capacity of the resources. Network congestion will increase as network speed increases and new effective congestion control methods are needed, especially for today’s very high speed networks. To address this undeniably global issue, the study focuses on the development of a fuzzy-based congestion control model concerned with allocating the resources of a computer network such that the system can operate at an adequate performance level when the demand exceeds or is near the capacity of the resources. Fuzzy logic based models have proven capable of accurately representing a wide variety of processes. The model built is based on bandwidth, the aggregate incoming traffic and the waiting time. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only good utilization but also low packet loss.

Keywords: congestion control, queue management, computer networks, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Arash Kosari, Ali Araghi

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A mathematical model for an optical-fiber communication channel is developed which results in an expression that calculates the throughput and loss of the corresponding link. The data are assumed to be transmitted by using of separate photons with different polarizations. The derived model also shows the dependency of data throughput with length of the channel and depolarization factor. It is observed that absorption of photons affects the throughput in a more intensive way in comparison with that of depolarization. Apart from that, the probability of depolarization and the absorption of radiated photons are obtained.

Keywords: absorption, data throughput, depolarization, optical fiber

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Authors: Elzbieta Babula, Juhyun Park

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Tversky and Kahneman’s cumulative prospect theory assumes symmetric probability cumulation with regard to the reference point within decision weights. Theoretically, this model should be invariant under the change of the direction of probability cumulation. In the present study, this phenomenon is being investigated by creating a reference model that allows verifying the parameter interactions in the cumulative prospect theory specifications. The simultaneous parametric fitting of utility and weighting functions is applied to binary choice data from the experiment. The results show that the flexibility of the probability weighting function is a crucial characteristic allowing to prevent parameter interactions while estimating cumulative prospect theory.

Keywords: binary choice experiment, cumulative prospect theory, decision weights, parameter interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data-set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: temporal graph network, anomaly detection, cyber security, IDS

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Authors: Farahnaz Karami

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Routing is an important, challenging task in mobile ad hoc networks due to node mobility, lack of central control, unstable links, and limited resources. An ant colony has been found to be an attractive technique for routing in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs). However, existing swarm intelligence based routing protocols find an optimal path by considering only one or two route selection metrics without considering correlations among such parameters making them unsuitable lonely for routing real time applications. Fuzzy logic combines multiple route selection parameters containing uncertain information or imprecise data in nature, but does not have multipath routing property naturally in order to provide load balancing. The objective of this paper is to design a routing algorithm using fuzzy logic and ant colony that can solve some of routing problems in mobile ad hoc networks, such as nodes energy consumption optimization to increase network lifetime, link failures rate reduction to increase packet delivery reliability and providing load balancing to optimize available bandwidth. In proposed algorithm, the path information will be given to fuzzy inference system by ants. Based on the available path information and considering the parameters required for quality of service (QoS), the fuzzy cost of each path is calculated and the optimal paths will be selected. NS2.35 simulation tools are used for simulation and the results are compared and evaluated with the newest QoS based algorithms in MANETs according to packet delivery ratio, end-to-end delay and routing overhead ratio criterions. The simulation results show significant improvement in the performance of these networks in terms of decreasing end-to-end delay, and routing overhead ratio, and also increasing packet delivery ratio.

Keywords: mobile ad hoc networks, routing, quality of service, ant colony, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Smrity Dwivedi

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The present paper has revealed the effect of double substrates over a bandwidth performance for planar antennas. The used material has its own importance to get minimum return loss and improved directivity. The author has taken double substrates to enhance the efficiency in terms of gain of antenna. Metamaterial based antenna has its own specific structure which increased the performance of antenna. Improved return loss is -20 dB, and the voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) is 1.2, which is better than single substrate having return loss of -15 dB and VSWR of 1.4. Complete results are obtained using commercial software CST microwave studio.

Keywords: CST microwave studio, metamaterial, return loss, VSWR

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Authors: Masica Jordan Alston, Angela N. Bullock, Angela S. Henderson, Stephanie Strianse, Sade Dunn, Joseph Hackett, Alaysia Black Hackett, Marcus Mason

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The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was created in 2018. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief utilizes historic models of grief stage theories. The innovative model is additionally unique due to its focus on cultural responsiveness. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief helps to train practitioners who work with clients dealing with grief and loss. This paper assists in introducing the world to this innovative model and exploring how this model positively impacted a convenience sample of 140 practitioners and individuals experiencing grief and loss. Respondents participated in Webinars provided by the National Grief and Loss Center of America (NGLCA). Participants in this cross-sectional research design study completed one of three Grief and Loss Surveys created by the Grief and Loss Centers of America. Data analysis for this study was conducted via SPSS and Survey Hero to examine survey results for respondents. Results indicate that the Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was an effective resource for participants in addressing grief and loss. The majority of participants found the Webinars to be helpful and a conduit to providing them with higher levels of hope. The findings suggest that using The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief is effective in providing culturally responsive grief and loss resources to practitioners and clients. There are far reaching implications with the use of technology to provide hope to those suffering from grief and loss worldwide through The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief.

Keywords: grief, loss, grief energy, grieving brain

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Authors: S. Olyaee, M. Seifouri, A. Nikoosohbat, M. Shams Esfand Abadi

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Photonic Crystal Fibers (PCFs) can be used in optical communications as transmission lines. For this reason, the PCFs with low confinement loss, low chromatic dispersion, and low nonlinear effects are highly suitable transmission media. In this paper, we introduce a new design of index-guiding photonic crystal fiber (IG-PCF) with ultra-low chromatic dispersion, low nonlinearity effects, and low confinement loss. Relatively low dispersion is achieved in the wavelength range of 1200 to 1600 nm using the proposed design. According to the new structure of IG-PCF presented in this study, the chromatic dispersion slope is -30(ps/km.nm) and the confinement loss reaches below 10-7 dB/km. While in the wavelength range mentioned above at the same time an effective area of more than 50.2μm2 is obtained.

Keywords: optical communication systems, index-guiding, dispersion, confinement loss, photonic crystal fiber

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Authors: Mana Goodarzi

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This study focuses on the analysis of immigration through the lens of Sigmund Freud's conceptual framework on mourning and melancholia. The immigration process, being complicated, involves numerous losses and carries significant psychological consequences. By delving into specific loss experiences within immigration, this work aims to unravel the intricacies of grief in the context of immigration and shed light on why such experiences often tend to manifest as melancholic. The discussion introduces losses in immigration, including unrecognized departure from a love object, identity loss, racial and cultural melancholy, language loss, regressive positioning, and loss of an ideal object. Following this, it explores manic defense mechanisms in immigration, concluding with a mention of successful immigration processes.

Keywords: immigration, melancholia, melancholic immigration, mourn

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Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

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Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk

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Authors: Ki-Jin Kim, Suk-Hui LEE, Sanghoon Park, K. H. Ahn

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A high power, low loss asymmetric single pole double through(SPDT) antenna switch for LTE-A Front-End Module(FEM) is presented in this paper by using CMOS technology. For the usage of LTE-A applications, low loss and high linearity are the key features which are very challenging works under CMOS process. To enhance insertion loss(IL) and power handling capability, this paper adopts asymmetric Transmitter (TX) and RX (Receiver) structure, floating body technique, multi-stacked structure, and feed forward capacitor technique. The designed SPDT switch shows TX IL 0.34 dB, RX IL 0.73 dB, P1dB 38.9 dBm at 0.9 GHz and TX IL 0.37 dB, RX IL 0.95 dB, P1dB 39.1 dBm at 2.5 GHz respectively.

Keywords: CMOS switch, SPDT switch, high power CMOS switch, LTE-A FEM

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Authors: Peiyin Hung, Katy Kozhimannil, Michelle Casey, Ira Moscovice

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Background/Objective: The loss of obstetric services has been a pressing concern in urban and rural areas nationwide. This study aims to determine factors that contribute to the loss of obstetric care through closures of a hospital or obstetric unit. Methods: Data from 2002-2013 American Hospital Association annual surveys were used to identify hospitals providing obstetric services. We linked these data to Medicare Healthcare Cost Report Information for hospital financial indicators, the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for zip-code level characteristics, and Area Health Resource files for county- level clinician supply measures. A discrete-time multinomial logit model was used to determine contributing factors to obstetric unit or hospital closures. Results: Of 3,551 hospitals providing obstetrics services during 2002-2013, 82% kept units open, 12% stopped providing obstetrics services, and 6% closed down completely. State-level variations existed. Factors that significantly increased hospitals’ probability of obstetric unit closures included lower than 250 annual birth volume (adjusted marginal effects [95% confidence interval]=34.1% [28%, 40%]), closer proximity to another hospital with obstetric services (per 10 miles: -1.5% [-2.4, -0.5%]), being in a county with lower family physician supply (-7.8% [-15.0%, -0.6%), being in a zip code with higher percentage of non-white females (per 10%: 10.2% [2.1%, 18.3%]), and with lower income (per $1,000 income: -0.14% [-0.28%, -0.01%]). Conclusions: Over the past 12 years, loss of obstetric services has disproportionately affected areas served by low-volume urban and rural hospitals, non-white and low-income communities, and counties with fewer family physicians, signaling a need to address maternity care access in these communities.

Keywords: access to care, obstetric care, service line discontinuation, hospital, obstetric unit closures

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Authors: Ana Paula P. dos Santos, Claudia R. Andrade, Edson L. Zaparoli

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Pressure loss in ductworks is an important factor to be considered in design of engineering systems such as power-plants, refineries, HVAC systems to reduce energy costs. Ductwork can be composed by straight ducts and different types of fittings (elbows, transitions, converging and diverging tees and wyes). Duct fittings are significant sources of pressure loss in fluid distribution systems. Fitting losses can be even more significant than equipment components such as coils, filters, and dampers. At the present work, a conventional 90o round elbow under turbulent incompressible airflow is studied. Mass, momentum, and k-e turbulence model equations are solved employing the finite volume method. The SIMPLE algorithm is used for the pressure-velocity coupling. In order to validate the numerical tool, the elbow pressure loss coefficient is determined using the same conditions to compare with ASHRAE database. Furthermore, the effect of Reynolds number variation on the elbow pressure loss coefficient is investigated. These results can be useful to perform better preliminary design of air distribution ductworks in air conditioning systems.

Keywords: duct fitting, pressure loss, elbow, thermodynamics

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Authors: J. S. Savier

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Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

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Authors: Aleema Rahman

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Introduction: This study aims to estimate the prevalence of long-term otitis media with effusion (OME) and hearing loss in a prospective longitudinal cohort studyand to study the relationship between the condition and educational and psychosocial outcomes. Methods: Analysis of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) will be undertaken. ALSPAC is a longitudinal birth cohort study carried out in the UK, which has collected detailed measures of hearing on ~7000 children from the age of seven. A descriptive analysis of the data will be undertaken to estimate the prevalence of OME and hearing loss (defined as having average hearing levels > 20dB and type B tympanogram) at 7, 9, 11, and 15 years as well as that of long-term OME and hearing loss. Logistic and linear regression analyses will be conducted to examine associations between long-term OME and hearing loss and educational outcomes (grades obtained from standardised national attainment tests) and psychosocial outcomes such as anxiety, social fears, and depression at ages 10-11 and 15-16 years. Results: Results will be presented in terms of the prevalence of OME and hearing loss in the population at each age. The prevalence of long-term OME and hearing loss, defined as having OME and hearing loss at two or more time points, will also be reported. Furthermore, any associations between long-term OME and hearing loss and the educational and psychosocial outcomes will be presented. Analyses will take into account demographic factors such as sex and social deprivation and relevant confounders, including socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and IQ. Discussion: Findings from this study will provide new epidemiological information on the prevalence of long-term OME and hearing loss. The research will provide new knowledge on the impact of OME for the small group of children who do not grow out of condition by age 7 but continue to have hearing loss and need clinical care through later childhood. The study could have clinical implications and may influence service delivery for this group of children.

Keywords: educational attainment, hearing loss, otitis media with effusion, psychosocial development

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Filippo Portera

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Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.

Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression

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Authors: Suhib A. Abu-Seini, Kyung-Doo Kim

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A heat loss model for ATLAS facility was introduced using SPACE code predefined correlations and various dialing factors. As all previous simulations were carried out using a heat loss free input; the facility was considered to be completely insulated and the core power was reduced by the experimentally measured values of heat loss to compensate to the account for the loss of heat, this study will consider heat loss throughout the simulation. The new heat loss model will be affecting SPACE code simulation as heat being leaked out of the system throughout a transient will alter many parameters corresponding to temperature and temperature difference. For that, a Station Blackout followed by a multiple Steam Generator Tube Rupture accident will be simulated using both the insulated system approach and the newly introduced heat loss input of the steady state. Major parameters such as system temperatures, pressure values, and flow rates to be put into comparison and various analysis will be suggested upon it as the experimental values will not be the reference to validate the expected outcome. This study will not only show the significance of heat loss consideration in the processes of prevention and mitigation of various incidents, design basis and beyond accidents as it will give a detailed behavior of ATLAS facility during both processes of steady state and major transient, but will also present a verification of how credible the data acquired of ATLAS are; since heat loss values for steady state were already mismatched between SPACE simulation results and ATLAS data acquiring system. Acknowledgement- This work was supported by the Korean institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) of the Republic of Korea.

Keywords: ATLAS, heat loss, simulation, SPACE, station blackout, steam generator tube rupture, verification

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

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As biometric systems become widely deployed, the security of identification systems can be easily attacked by various spoof materials. This paper contributes to finding a reliable and practical anti-spoofing method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on the types of loss functions and optimizers. The types of CNNs used in this paper include AlexNet, VGGNet, and ResNet. By using various loss functions including Cross-Entropy, Center Loss, Cosine Proximity, and Hinge Loss, and various loss optimizers which include Adam, SGD, RMSProp, Adadelta, Adagrad, and Nadam, we obtained significant performance changes. We realize that choosing the correct loss function for each model is crucial since different loss functions lead to different errors on the same evaluation. By using a subset of the Livdet 2017 database, we validate our approach to compare the generalization power. It is important to note that we use a subset of LiveDet and the database is the same across all training and testing for each model. This way, we can compare the performance, in terms of generalization, for the unseen data across all different models. The best CNN (AlexNet) with the appropriate loss function and optimizers result in more than 3% of performance gain over the other CNN models with the default loss function and optimizer. In addition to the highest generalization performance, this paper also contains the models with high accuracy associated with parameters and mean average error rates to find the model that consumes the least memory and computation time for training and testing. Although AlexNet has less complexity over other CNN models, it is proven to be very efficient. For practical anti-spoofing systems, the deployed version should use a small amount of memory and should run very fast with high anti-spoofing performance. For our deployed version on smartphones, additional processing steps, such as quantization and pruning algorithms, have been applied in our final model.

Keywords: anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, loss function, optimizer

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Authors: Sandesh Yadav

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Earthquake constitutes one of the most terrible natural hazards which often turn into a disaster or causing extensive devastation and loss of human lives and their properties. In the year 2015, Nepal experienced the most devastating earthquakes on 25th April, 2015 and 12th May, 2015 respectively. Several villages, towns, human constructions and their properties, lives were completely damaged. The hazardous effect of Nepal earthquakes depends not only on their magnitude of Richter Scale on intensity alone, but also on so many factors, such as geology of earth crust (lithology, elasticity, soil condition, permissible stress, rock structures etc.). The unscientifically and non-seismically designed buildings resulted in huge loss of life and property. Further, the loss due to earthquake can be grouped into three broad categories namely agriculture sector (loss of livestock, poultry and food stocks), industrial sector (mainly brick production industry) and infrastructural sector (transportation infrastructure). The present research study begins with the tracing of Geological history of earthquakes in Nepal along with identification of causes of Nepal earthquakes, 2015. Secondly, research study identifies the extent of tremors of earthquakes of 2015 in Nepal and surrounding areas along with their sphere of impact. Thirdly, the research study tries to assess the agricultural loss, industrial loss and infrastructural loss due to earthquakes in Nepal. Lastly, the research study ends with the various recommendations and suggestions in order to minimize the loss due to earthquakes in the future.

Keywords: earthquake, richter scale, sphere of impact, tremors

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

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This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self-excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operating as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machine operating as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Amirreza Razzaghipour, Mahdi Khalili

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References from the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control for deceleration the spread of the Novel COVID-19, comprises social estrangement, frequent handwashing, and covering your mouth when around others. As hearing healthcare specialists, the influence of existenceinvoluntary to boundary social interactions on persons with hearing impairment was significant for us to understand. We found ourselves delaying cochlear implant (CI) surgeries. All children, and chiefly those with hearing loss, are susceptible to reductions in spoken communication. Hearing plans, such as cochlear implants, provide children with hearing loss access to spoken communication and provision language development. when provided early and used consistently, these supplies help children with hearing loss to engage in spoken connections. Cochlear implant (CI) is a standard medical-surgical treatment for bilateral severe to profound hearing loss with no advantage with the hearing aid. Hearing is one of the most important senses in humans. Pediatric hearing loss establishes one of the most important public health challenges. Children with hearing loss are recognized early and habilitated via hearing aids or with cochlear implants (CIs). Suitable care and maintenance as well as continuous auditory verbal therapy (AVT) are also essential in reaching for the successful attainment of language acquisition. Children with hearing loss posture important challenges to their parents, particularly when there is limited admission to their hearing care providers. The disruption in the routine of their hearing and therapy follow-up services has had substantial effects on the children as well as their parents.

Keywords: healthcare, covid-19, cochlear implants, spoken communication, hearing loss

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Musefiu Aderinola, F. A. Amuda

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Outages of GSM signals may be experienced at some indoor locations even when there are strong outdoor receptions. This is often traced to the building penetration loss, which account for increased attenuation of received GSM signals level when a mobile signal device is moved indoor from outdoor. In this work, measurement of two existing GSM operators signal level were made outside and inside two selected buildings- mud and block which represent the prevalent building types in Kazaure, Jigawa State, Nigeria. A gionee P2 mobile phone with RF signal tracker software installed in it was used and the result shows that an average loss of 10.62dBm and 4.25dBm for mud and block buildings respectively.

Keywords: penetration loss, outdoor reception, Gionee P2, RF signal tracker, mud and block building

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Authors: Ali S. Gargoum

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Graphical modeling plays an important role in providing efficient probability calculations in high dimensional problems (computational efficiency). In this paper, we address one of such problems where we discuss fragmenting puff models and some distributional assumptions concerning models for the instantaneous, emission readings and for the fragmenting process. A graphical representation in terms of a junction tree of the conditional probability breakdown of puffs and puff fragments is proposed.

Keywords: graphical models, influence diagrams, junction trees, Bayesian nets

Procedia PDF Downloads 373