Search results for: operational scale

Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

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The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

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Authors: Canan Duzan

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For most language learners, mastery of the speaking skill is the proof of the mastery of the foreign language. On the other hand, the speaking skill is considered as the most difficult aspect of language learning to develop for both learners and teachers. Especially in countries like Turkey where exposure to the target language is minimum and resources and opportunities provided for language practice are scarce, teaching and learning to speak the language become a real struggle for teachers and learners alike. Data collected from students, instructors, faculty members and the business sector in needs analysis studies conducted previously at Middle East Technical University (METU) consistently revealed the need for addressing the problem of lack of confidence in speaking English. Action was taken during the design of the only EAP speaking course offered in Modern Languages Department since lack of confidence is considered to be a serious barrier for effective communication and causes learners to suffer from insecurity, uncertainty and fear. “Confidence building” served as the guiding principle in the syllabus design, nature of the tasks created for the course and the assessment procedures to help learners become more confident speakers of English. In order to see the effectiveness of the decisions made during the design phase of the course and whether students become more confident speakers upon completion of the course, a case study was carried out with 100 students at METU. A questionnaire including both Likert-Scale and open-ended items were administered to students to collect data and this data were analyzed using the SPSS program. Group interviews were also carried out to gain more insight into the effectiveness of the course in terms of building speaking confidence. This presentation will explore the specific actions taken to develop students’ confidence based on the findings of program evaluation studies and to what extent the students believe these actions to be effective in improving their confidence. The unique design of this course and strategies adopted for confidence building are highly applicable in other EAP contexts and may yield similar positive results.

Keywords: confidence, EAP, speaking, strategy

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Authors: Arifuzzaman Nayeem, Tafannum Torsha, Tanvir Manzur, Shaurav Alam

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Performance evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) beams subjected to accidental fire is significant for post-fire capacity measurement. Mechanical properties of any RC beam degrade due to heating since the strength and modulus of concrete and reinforcement suffer considerable reduction under elevated temperatures. Moreover, fire-induced thermal dilation and shrinkage cause internal stresses within the concrete and eventually result in cracking, spalling, and loss of stiffness, which ultimately leads to lower service life. However, conducting full-scale comprehensive experimental investigation for RC beams exposed to fire is difficult and cost-intensive, where the finite element (FE) based numerical study can provide an economical alternative for evaluating the post-fire capacity of RC beams. In this study, an attempt has been made to study the fire behavior of RC beams using FE software package ABAQUS under different durations of fire. The damaged plasticity model of concrete in ABAQUS was used to simulate behavior RC beams. The effect of temperature on strength and modulus of concrete and steel was simulated following relevant Eurocodes. Initially, the result of FE models was validated using several experimental results from available scholarly articles. It was found that the response of the developed FE models matched quite well with the experimental outcome for beams without heat. The FE analysis of beams subjected to fire showed some deviation from the experimental results, particularly in terms of stiffness degradation. However, the ultimate strength and deflection of FE models were similar to that of experimental values. The developed FE models, thus, exhibited the good potential to predict the fire behavior of RC beams. Once validated, FE models were then used to analyze several RC beams having different strengths (ranged between 20 MPa and 50 MPa) exposed to the standard fire curve (ASTM E119) for different durations. The post-fire performance of RC beams was investigated in terms of load-deflection behavior, flexural strength, and deflection characteristics.

Keywords: fire durations, flexural strength, post fire capacity, reinforced concrete beam, standard fire

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Authors: Ramzi Suleiman

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Recently, the author proposed an observationally-based relativity theory termed information relativity theory (IRT). The theory is simple and is based only on basic principles, with no prior axioms and no free parameters. For the case of a body of mass in uniform rectilinear motion relative to an observer, the theory transformations uncovered a matter-dark matter duality, which prescribes that the sum of the densities of the body's baryonic matter and dark matter, as measured by the observer, is equal to the body's matter density at rest. It was shown that the theory transformations were successful in predicting several important phenomena in small particle physics, quantum physics, and cosmology. This paper extends the theory transformations to the cases of rotating disks and spheres. The resulting transformations for a rotating disk are utilized to derive predictions of the radial distributions of matter and dark matter densities in rotationally supported galaxies based solely on their observed rotation curves. It is also shown that for galaxies with flattening curves, good approximations of the radial distributions of matter and dark matter and of the dark matter fraction could be obtained from one measurable scale radius. Test of the model on five galaxies, chosen randomly from the SPARC database, yielded impressive predictions. The rotation curves of all the investigated galaxies emerged as accurate traces of the predicted radial density distributions of their dark matter. This striking result raises an intriguing physical explanation of gravity in galaxies, according to which it is the proximal drag of the stars and gas in the galaxy by its rotating dark matter web. We conclude by alluding briefly to the application of the proposed model to stellar systems and black holes. This study also hints at the potential of the discovered matter-dark matter duality in fixing the standard model of elementary particles in a natural manner without the need for hypothesizing about supersymmetric particles.

Keywords: dark matter, galaxies rotation curves, SPARC, rotating disk

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Authors: Abhishek N. Srivastava, Rahul Singh, Sumedha Chakma

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The rapid urbanization in the developing countries is generating an enormous amount of waste leading to the creation of unregulated landfill sites at various places at its disposal. The liquid waste, known as leachate, produced from these landfills sites is severely affecting the surrounding water quality. The water quality in the proximity areas of the landfill is found affected by various physico-chemical parameters of leachate such as pH, alkalinity, total hardness, conductivity, chloride, total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), sulphate, nitrate, phosphate, fluoride, sodium and potassium, biological parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Faecal coliform, and heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni). However, all these parameters are distributive in leachate that produced according to the nature of waste being dumped at various landfill sites, therefore, it becomes very difficult to predict the main responsible parameter of leachate for water quality contamination. The present study is endeavour the comparative analysis of the physical, chemical and biological parameters of various landfills in India viz. Okhla landfill, Ghazipur landfill, Bhalswa ladfill in NCR Delhi, Deonar landfill in Mumbai, Dhapa landfill in Kolkata and Kodungayaiyur landfill, Perungudi landfill in Chennai. The statistical analysis of the parameters was carried out using the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and LandSim 2.5 model to simulate the long term effect of various parameters on different time scale. Further, the uncertainties characterization of various input parameters has also been analysed using fuzzy alpha cut (FAC) technique to check the sensitivity of various water quality parameters at the proximity of numerous landfill sites. Finally, the study would help to suggest the best method for the prevention of pollution migration from the landfill sites on priority basis.

Keywords: landfill leachate, water quality, LandSim, fuzzy alpha cut

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Lota Largavista

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This study entitled, ‘The Organizational Structure, Development Features, and Metadiscoursal Elements in the Expository Writing of Freshman College Writers’ aimed to examine essays written by college students. It seeks to examine the organizational structure and development features of the essays and describe their defining characteristics, the linguistic elements at both macrostructural and microstructural discourse levels and the types of textual and interpersonal metadiscourse markers that are employed in order to negotiate meanings with their prospective readers. The different frameworks used to analyze the essays include Toulmin’s ( 1984) model for argument structure, Olson’s ( 2003) three-part essay structure; Halliday and Matthiesen (2004) in Herriman (2011) notions of thematic structure, Danes (1974) thematic progression or method of development, Halliday’s (2004) concept of grammatical and lexical cohesion ;Hyland’s (2005) metadiscourse strategies; and Chung and Nation’s( 2003) four-step scale for technical vocabulary. This descriptive study analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively how freshman students generally express their written compositions. Coding of units is done to determine what linguistic features are present in the essays. Findings revealed that students’ expository essays observe a three-part structure having all three moves, the Introduction, the Body and the Conclusion. Stance assertion, stance support, and emerging moves/strategies are found to be employed in the essays. Students have more marked themes on the essays and also prefer constant theme progression as their method of development. The analysis of salient linguistic elements reveals frequently used cohesive devices and metadiscoursal strategies. Based on the findings, an instructional learning plan is being proposed. This plan is characterized by a genre approach that focuses on expository and linguistic conventions.

Keywords: metadiscourse, organization, theme progression, structure

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Authors: Marko Spasojevic, Ying Hei Chui, Yuxiang Chen

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Increasing the level of exterior insulation in residential buildings is a popular way for improving the thermal characteristic of building enclosure and reducing heat loss. However, the layout and properties of materials composing the wall have a great effect on moisture accumulation within the wall cavity, long-term durability of a wall as well as the structural performance. A one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling has been performed to investigate moisture condensation risks and the drying capacity of standard 2×4 and 2×6 light wood-frame wall assemblies including exterior low-permeance extruded polystyrene (XPS) insulation. The analysis considered two different wall configurations whereby the rigid insulation board was placed either between Oriented Strand Board (OSB) sheathing and the stud or outboard to the structural sheathing. The thickness of the insulation varied between 0 mm and 50 mm and the analysis has been conducted for eight different locations in Canada, covering climate zone 4 through zone 8. Results show that the wall configuration with low-permeance insulation inserted between the stud and OSB sheathing accumulates more moisture within the stud cavity, compared to the assembly with the same insulation placed exterior to the sheathing. On the other hand, OSB moisture contents of the latter configuration were markedly higher. Consequently, the analysis of hygrothermal performance investigated and compared moisture accumulation in both the OSB and stud cavity. To investigate the structural performance of the wall and the effect of soft insulation layer inserted between the sheathing and framing, forty nail connection specimens were tested. Results have shown that both the connection strength and stiffness experience a significant reduction as the insulation thickness increases. These results will be compared with results from a full-scale shear wall tests in order to investigate if the capacity of shear walls with insulated sheathing would experience a similar reduction in structural capacities.

Keywords: hygrothermal analysis, insulated sheathing, moisture performance, nail joints, wood shear wall

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Authors: Hadas Hirsch

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Clothing is aimed at concealing and revealing the body, protecting it, and manifesting religious, political, and social declarations. The material and symbolic meanings of clothing and its raw materials are evaluated through the context of their social, cultural, and religious systems. The raw materials for clothing that were frequent and familiar in the 7th century Arab Peninsula were wool, leather, cotton, and some kinds of silk. The spread of the Muslim empire and the intersections with other religions and cultures enable the trickling of new raw materials that were unknown to Muslims or unaccepted. The sources for this research are hadith collections that discuss in details various kinds of textiles and their origin, together with a legal explanation that permits or prohibits its use. The paper will describe and analyze this discussion by contextualizing it in social, religious, and cultural reality that creates a structure of socio-religious dependency. The aim is not to identify, catalogue, and technically analyze fabrics but to reveal their role in Muslims’ life as a means of creating dependency for the community and setting borders inside and outside. The analysis is built upon a scale that starts with the most recommended raw materials, then comes the permitted ones and, in the end, the prohibited raw materials. This mapping will provide an insight into the ways textiles, as a cultural medium, help to shape and redefine identities and, at the same time, enable a sphere for creative expression within socio-cultural and religious limits and context. To sum up, hadith literature has the main role is characterizing Muslim clothing, from garments to textiles and colors, including multiple variations and contradicting aspects. The Muslim style of clothing and, in particular, textiles is a manifestation of the socio-religious structure of dependency that creates differentiated Muslim identity together with subdivision of gendered groups. Some other aspects are the tension between authenticity and imitation and the jurists’ pragmatic and practice attitude that enables an individual sphere of expression within the limits of jurisprudence.

Keywords: Hadith, jurisprudence, medieval Islam, material culture

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Authors: M. Schapira, S. Françoise, F. Maheux, O. Pierre-Duplessix, E. Rabiller, B. Simon, R. Le Gendre

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Pico- and nano-phytoplankton are abundant and ecologically critical components of the autotrophic communities in the pelagic realm. While the role of physical forcing related to tidal cycle, water mass intrusion, nutrient availability, mixing and stratification on microphytoplankton blooms have been widely investigated, these are often overlooked for pico- and nano-phytoplankton especially in estuarine waters. This study investigates changes in abundances and community composition of pico- and nano-phytoplankton under different estuarine tidal conditions in the mouth of the Seine River in relation to nutrient availability, water column stratification and spatially localized currents. Samples were collected each day at high tide, over spring tide to neap tide cycle, from 21 stations homogeneously distributed in the Seine river month in May 2011. Vertical profiles of temperature, salinity and fluorescence were realized at each sampling station. Sub-surface water samples (i.e. 1 m depth) were collected for nutrients (i.e. N, P and Si), phytoplankton biomass (i.e. Chl a) and pico- and nano-phytoplankton enumeration and identification. Pico- and nano-phytoplankton populations were identified and quantified using flow cytometry. Total abundances tend to decrease from spring tide to neap tide. Samples were characterized by high abundances of Synechococcus and Cryptophyceae. The composition of the pico- and nano-phytoplankton varied greatly under the different estuarine tidal conditions. Moreover, at the scale of the river mouth, the pico- and nano-phytoplankton population exhibited patchy distribution patterns that were closely controlled by water mass intrusion from the Sea, freshwater inputs from the Seine River and the geomorphology of the river mouth. This study highlights the importance of physical forcing to the community composition of pico- and nano-phytoplankton that may be critical for the structure of the pelagic food webs in estuarine and adjacent coastal seas.

Keywords: nanophytoplancton, picophytoplankton, physical forcing, river mouth, tidal cycle

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Authors: Anies Mutiari, Neha Bansal, Martin Artner, Veronika Mayer, Juergen Roth, Mathias Weil, Rachmat Adhi Wibowo

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Cu₂ZnSnS₄ (CZTS) compound (mineral name kesterite) has attracted considerable interests for photovoltaic application owing to its optoelectrical properties. Moreover, its elemental abundance in Earth’s crust offers a comparative advantage for envisaged large-scale photovoltaic deployment without any material shortage issues. In this contribution, we present an innovative route to prepare CZTS solar absorber layer for photovoltaic application from low-cost and up-scalable process. CZTS layers were spin coated on the Molybdenum-coated glass from two inks composed of different solvents; dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) and ultrapure water. Into each solvent; 0.57M CuCl₂, 0.39M ZnCl₂, 0.53M SnCl₂, and 1.85M Thiourea or Na₂S₂O₃, as well as pre-synthesized CZTS nanopowder, were added as sources of Cu, Zn, Sn and S in the ink. The crystallisation of ink into CZTS dense layers was carried out by firstly annealing the as-deposited CZTS layer in open air at 300°C for 1 minute, followed by sulfurisation at 560–620°C under atmospheric pressure for 120 minutes. Complementary electron microscopy, grazing incidence X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy investigations suggest that both solvents can be used for preparing high quality and device relevant CZTS solar absorber layers. The sulphurisation crystallizes the as-deposited CZTS into highly polycrystalline CZTS layer with tetragonal structure demonstrated by the presence of tetrahedrally-shaped grains with the size of 1 µm. An advancement of the CZTS layer preparation was made by gradual substitution of volatile organic compound solvent of DMSO with ultrapure water. It is revealed that by using similar air annealing and sulphurisation process, dense and compact CZTS layers can also be fabricated from an ink with reduced volatile organic compound content.

Keywords: kesterite, solar ink, spin coating, photovoltaics

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Authors: Selin Tosun

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The improvements in technology have started to transform the way we live, work, play, and commute in our cities. The emerging smart city understanding has been paving the way for more efficient, more useful, and more profitable cities. Smart sensors, smart lighting, smart waste, water and electricity management, smart transportation and communication systems are introduced to cities at a rapid pace. In today's world, innovation is often correlated with start-up companies and technological pioneers seeking broader economic objectives such as production and competitiveness. The government's position is primarily that of an enabler, with creativity mostly coming from the private sector. The paper argues that to achieve sustainable development, the ways in which smart and sustainable city approaches are being applied to cities need to be redefined. The research aims to address common discussions in the discourse of smart and sustainable cities criticizing the priority of lifestyle sterilization over human-centered sustainable interventions and social innovation strategies. The dichotomy between the fact that smart cities are mostly motivated by the competitive global market and the fact that the delocalization is, in fact, their biggest problem in the way of becoming authentic, sustainable cities is the main challenge that we face today. In other words, the key actors in smart cities have different and somewhat conflicting interests and demands. By reviewing the roles of the public and private actors in smart city making, the paper aspires to reconceptualize the understanding of “smartness” in achieving sustainable development in which the “smartness” is understood as a multi-layered complex phenomenon that can be channeled through different dynamics. The case cities around the world are explored and compared in terms of their technological innovations, governance and policy innovations, public-private stakeholder relationships, and the understanding of the public realm. The study aims to understand the current trends and general dynamics in the field, key issues that are being addressed, the scale that is preferred to reflect upon and the projects that are designed for the particular issues.

Keywords: smart city, sustainable development, technological innovation, social innovation

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Authors: Shaibu Baanni Azumah, William Adzawla

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Rice is an important staple crop, with current demand higher than the domestic supply in Ghana. This has led to a high and unfavourable import bill. Therefore, recent policies and interventions in the agricultural sub-sector aim at promoting various improved agricultural technologies in order to improve domestic production and reduce the importation of rice. In this study, we examined the effect of the adoption of Urea Deep Placement (UDP) technology by rice farmers on the position of the production frontier. This involved 200 farmers selected through a multi stage sampling technique in the Northern region of Ghana. A Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier model was fitted. The result showed that the adoption of UDP technology shifts the output frontier outward and also move the farmers closer to the frontier. Farmers were also operating under diminishing returns to scale which calls for redress. Other factors that significantly influenced rice production were farm size, labour, use of certified seeds and NPK fertilizer. Although there was an opportunity for improvement, the farmers were highly efficient (92%), compared to previous studies. Farmers’ efficiency was improved through increased education, household size, experience, access to credit, and lack of extension service provision by MoFA. The study recommends the revision of Ghana’s agricultural policy to include the UDP technology. Agricultural Extension officers of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) should be trained on the UDP technology to support IFDC’s drive to improve adoption by rice farmers. Rice farmers are also encouraged to expand their farm lands, improve plant population, and also increase the usage of fertilizer to improve yields. Mechanisms through which credit can be made easily accessible and effectively utilised should be identified and promoted.

Keywords: efficiency, rice farmers, stochastic frontier, UDP technology

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Behzadnia, Amir Bahador Boroumand

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Introduction: Limited facility situations require allocating the most available resources for most casualties. Accordingly, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is the one that may need to transport the patient as soon as possible. In a mass casualty event, deciding when the facilities are restricted is hard. The Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOSE) has been introduced to assess the global outcome after brain injuries. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors associated with GOSE. Materials and Methods: In a multicenter cross-sectional study conducted on 144 patients with TBI admitted to trauma emergency centers. All the patients with isolated TBI who were mentally and physically healthy before the trauma entered the study. The patient’s information was evaluated, including demographic characteristics, duration of hospital stays, mechanical ventilation on admission laboratory measurements, and on-admission vital signs. We recorded the patients’ TBI-related symptoms and brain computed tomography (CT) scan findings. Results: GOSE assessments showed an increasing trend by the comparison of on-discharge (7.47 ± 1.30), within a month (7.51 ± 1.30), and within three months (7.58 ± 1.21) evaluations (P < 0.001). On discharge, GOSE was positively correlated with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (r = 0.729, P < 0.001) and motor GCS (r = 0.812, P < 0.001), and inversely with age (r = −0.261, P = 0.002), hospitalization period (r = −0.678, P < 0.001), pulse rate (r = −0.256, P = 0.002) and white blood cell (WBC). Among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms in univariate analysis, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), interventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (P = 0.006), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) (P = 0.06; marginally at P < 0.1), subdural hemorrhage (SDH) (P = 0.032), and epidural hemorrhage (EDH) (P = 0.037) were significantly associated with GOSE at discharge in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Our study showed some predictive factors that could help to decide which casualty should transport earlier to a trauma center. According to the current study findings, GCS, pulse rate, WBC, and among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms, ICH, IVH, SAH, SDH, and EDH are significant independent predictors of GOSE at discharge in TBI patients.

Keywords: field, Glasgow outcome score, prediction, traumatic brain injury.

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Authors: Maryam S. Ghoraishi, John E. Hawk, Thomas Thundat

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Understanding liquid properties in small scale has become important in recent decades as immerging new microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices have been widely used for micro pumps, drug delivery, and many other laboratory-on-microchips analysis. Often in microfluidic devices, fluids are transported electrokinetically. Therefore, extensive knowledge of fluid flow, heat transport, electrokinetics and electrochemistry are key to successful lab on a chip design. Among different microfluidic devices, recently developed hollow channel cantilever offers an ideal platform to study different fluid properties simultaneously without drastic decrease in quality factor which normally occurs when traditional cantilevers operate in the liquid phase. Using hollow channel cantilever, we monitor changes in density and viscosity of liquid while simultaneously investigating dielectric properties of alcohol water binary mixtures. Considerable research has been conducted on alcohol-water mixtures since such a mixture is a typical prototype for biomolecules, Micelle formation, and structural stability of proteins (to name a few). Here we show that hollow channel cantilever can be employed to investigate dielectric properties of ethanol/water mixtures in different concentrations. We study dynamic amplitude shifts of hollow channel cantilever oscillation at different concentrations of ethanol/water for different voltages. Our results show how interactions between solute and solvent, and possibly cluster formation, could change dielectric properties and dipole reorientation of the mixture, as well as the resulting force on the hollow cantilever. For comparison, we also examine higher conductivity ionic mixtures of sodium sulfate solution under the same conditions as low conductivity ethanol/water mixtures. We will show the results from systematic investigation of solvent effects on dielectric properties of the binary mixture. We will also address the question of resolution limits in dielectric study of analyte molecules imposed by solvent concentrations.

Keywords: dielectric constant, cantilever sensors, ethanol water mixtures, low frequency

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Authors: Trishita Ray, Ashok Perka, Arnab Karani, M. Shome, Saurabh Kundu

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Line pipe steels are used for long distance transportation of crude oil and gas under extreme environmental conditions. Welding is necessary to lay large scale pipelines. Coarse Grain Heat Affected Zone (CGHAZ) of a welded joint exhibits worst toughness because of excessive grain growth and brittle microstructures like bainite and martensite, leading to early failure. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate microstructures and properties of the CGHAZ for different welding heat inputs. In the present study, CGHAZ for two heat inputs of 10 kJ/cm and 50 kJ/cm were simulated in Gleeble 3800, and the microstructures were investigated in detail by means of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD). Charpy Impact Tests were also done to evaluate the impact properties. High heat input was characterized with very low toughness and massive prior austenite grains. With the crystallographic information from EBSD, the area of a single prior austenite grain was traced out for both the welding conditions. Analysis of the prior austenite grains showed the formation of high angle boundaries between the crystallographic packets. Effect of these packet boundaries on secondary cleavage crack propagation was discussed. It was observed that in the low heat input condition, formation of finer packets with a criss-cross morphology inside prior austenite grains was effective in crack arrest whereas, in the high heat input condition, formation of larger packets with higher volume of low angle boundaries failed to resist crack propagation resulting in a brittle fracture. Thus, the characteristics in a crystallographic packet and impact properties are related and should be controlled to obtain optimum properties.

Keywords: coarse grain heat affected zone, crystallographic packet, toughness, line pipe steel

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Authors: Havva Nur Tarakci, Bahar Urhan Torun

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The transformation that is seen in every area of life by technology, especially internet technology changes the structure of political communications too. Internet, which is at the top of new communication technologies, affects political communications with its structure in a way that no traditional communication tools ever have and enables interaction and the channel between receiver and sender, and it becomes one of the most effective tools preferred among the political communication applications. This state as a result of technological convergence makes Internet an unobtainable place for political communication campaigns. Political communications, which means every kind of communication strategies that political parties called 'actors of political communications' use with the aim of messaging their opinions and party programmes to their present and potential voters who are a target group for them, is a type of communication that is frequently used also among social media tools at the present day. The electorate consisting of different structures is informed, directed, and managed by social media tools. Political parties easily reach their electorate by these tools without any limitations of both time and place and also are able to take the opinions and reactions of their electorate by the element of interaction that is a feature of social media. In this context, Facebook, which is a place that political parties use in social media at most, is a communication network including in our daily life since 2004. As it is one of the most popular social networks today, it is among the most-visited websites in the global scale. In this way, the research is based on the question, “How do the political parties use Facebook at the campaigns, which they conduct during the election periods, for informing their voters?” and it aims at clarifying the Facebook using practices of the political parties. In direction of this objective the official Facebook accounts of the four political parties (JDP–AKParti, PDP–BDP, RPP-CHP, NMP-MHP), which reach their voters by social media besides other communication tools, are treated, and a frame for the politics of Turkey is formed. The time of examination is constricted with totally two weeks, one week before the mayoral elections and one week after the mayoral elections, when it is supposed that the political parties use their Facebook accounts in full swing. As a research method, the method of content analysis is preferred, and the texts and the visual elements that are gotten are interpreted based on this analysis.

Keywords: Facebook, political communications, social media, electrorate

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Authors: W. Assaad, D. Wilmink, H. R. Pasaribu, H. J. M. Geijselaers

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Shell has developed a mono-diameter well concept for oil and gas wells as opposed to the traditional telescopic well design. A Mono-diameter well design allows well to have a single inner diameter from the surface all the way down to reservoir to increase production capacity, reduce material cost and reduce environmental footprint. This is achieved by expansion of liners (casing string) concerned using an expansion tool (e.g. a cone). Since the well is drilled in stages and liners are inserted to support the borehole, overlap sections between consecutive liners exist which should be expanded. At overlap, the previously inserted casing which can be expanded or unexpanded is called the host casing and the newly inserted casing is called the expandable casing. When the cone enters the overlap section, an expandable casing is expanded against a host casing, a cured cement layer and formation. In overlap expansion, ironing or lengthening may appear instead of shortening in the expandable casing when the pressure exerted by the host casing, cured cement layer and formation exceeds a certain limit. This pressure is related to cement strength, thickness of cement layer, host casing material mechanical properties, host casing thickness, formation type and formation strength. Ironing can cause implications that hinder the deployment of the technology. Therefore, the understanding of ironing becomes essential. A physical model is built in-house to calculate expansion forces, stresses, strains and post expansion casing dimensions under different conditions. In this study, only free casing and overlap expansion of two casings are addressed while the cement and formation will be incorporated in future study. Since the axial strain can be predicted by the physical model, the onset of ironing can be confirmed. In addition, this model helps in understanding ironing and the parameters influencing it. Finally, the physical model is validated with Finite Element (FE) simulations and small-scale experiments. The results of the study confirm that high pressure leads to ironing when the casing is expanded in tension mode.

Keywords: casing expansion, cement, formation, metal forming, plasticity, well design

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Authors: Yinsheng Zhang

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Changes in the extent and amount of snow cover in Eurasia are of great interest because of their vital impacts on the global climate system and regional water resource management. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of the snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) of continental Eurasia using the Northern Hemisphere Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid (EASE-Grid) Weekly SCE data for 1972–2006 and the Global Monthly EASE-Grid SWE data for 1979–2004. The results indicated that, in general, the spatial extent of snow cover significantly decreased during spring and summer, but varied little during autumn and winter over Eurasia in the study period. The date at which snow cover began to disappear in spring has significantly advanced, whereas the timing of snow cover onset in autumn did not vary significantly during 1972–2006. The snow cover persistence period declined significantly in the western Tibetan Plateau as well as the partial area of Central Asia and northwestern Russia but varied little in other parts of Eurasia. ‘Snow-free breaks’ (SFBs) with intermittent snow cover in the cold season were mainly observed in the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia, causing a low sensitivity of snow cover persistence period to the timings of snow cover onset and disappearance over the areas with shallow snow. The averaged SFBs were 1–14 weeks in the Tibetan Plateau during 1972–2006 and the maximum intermittence could reach 25 weeks in some extreme years. At a seasonal scale, the SWE usually peaked in February or March but fell gradually since April across Eurasia. Both annual mean and annual maximum SWE decreased significantly during 1979–2004 in most parts of Eurasia except for eastern Siberia as well as northwestern and northeastern China.

Keywords: Eurasia, snow cover extent, snow cover persistence period, snow-free breaks, onset and disappearance timings, snow water equivalent

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Authors: Dina Jalalvand, Joshua A. Cleland

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This double-blind, randomized control trial with parallel groups aimed to examine the effectiveness of office-based occupational therapy for office workers with low back pain on the intensity of pain and range of motion. Seventy-two male office workers (age: 20-50 years) with chronic low back pain (more than three months with at least two symptoms of chronic low back pain) satisfied eligibility criteria and agreed to participate in this study. The absence of joint burst following magnetic resonance imagining (MRI) was considered as an important inclusion criterion as well. Subjects were randomly assigned to a control or experimental group. The experimental group received the modified package of exercise-based occupational therapy, which included 11 simple exercise movements (derived from Williams and McKenzie), and the control group just received the conventional therapy, which included their routine physiotherapy sessions. The subjects completed the exercises three times a week for a duration of six weeks. Each exercise session was 10-15 minutes. Pain intensity and range of motion were the primary outcomes and were measured at baseline, 6 weeks, and 12 weeks after the end of the intervention using the numerical rating scale (NRS) and goniometer accordingly. Repeated measure ANOVA was used for analyzing data. The results of this study showed that significant decreases in pain intensity (p ≤ 0.05) and an increase in range of motion (p ≤ 0.001) in the experimental group in comparison with the control group after 6 and 12 weeks of intervention (between-group comparisons). In addition, there was a significant decrease in intensity of the pain (p ≤ 0.05) and an increase (p ≤ 0.001) in range of motion in the intervention group in comparison with baseline after 6 and 12 weeks (within-group comparison). This showed a positive effect of exercise-based occupational therapy that could potentially be used with low cost among office workers who suffer from low back pain. In addition, it should be noted that the introduced package of exercise training is easy to do, and there is not a need for a specific introduction.

Keywords: public health, office workers, low back pain, occupational therapy

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Authors: Stavroula Stavropoulou-Tatla, Danyal Awal, Mohammad Ayaz Hossain

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The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic saw several countries issue guidance postponing all non-urgent diagnostic evaluations and operations, leading to an estimated backlog of 28 million cases worldwide and over 4 million in the UK alone. In an attempt to regulate the resumption of elective surgical activity, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) introduced the ‘COVID-19 rapid guideline [NG179]’. This project aimed to increase healthcare staff knowledge of the aforementioned guideline to a targeted score of 100% in the disseminated questionnaire within 3 months at the Royal Free Hospital. A standardized online questionnaire was used to assess the knowledge of surgical and medical staff at baseline and following each 4-week-long Plan-Study-Do-Act (PDSA) cycle. During PDSA1, the A4 visual summary accompanying the guideline was visibly placed in all relevant clinical areas and the full guideline was distributed to the staff in charge together with a short briefing on the salient points. PDSA2 involved brief small-group teaching sessions. A total of 218 responses was collected. Mean percentage scores increased significantly from 51±19% at baseline to 81±16% after PDSA1 (t=10.32, p<0.0001) and further to 93±8% after PDSA2 (t=4.9, p<0.0001), with 54% of participants achieving a perfect score. In conclusion, the targeted distribution of guideline printouts and visual aids, combined with small-group teaching sessions, were simple and effective ways of educating healthcare staff about the new standards of elective surgical care at the time of COVID-19. This could facilitate the safe restoration of surgical activity, which is critical in order to mitigate the far-reaching consequences of surgical delays on an unprecedented scale during a time of great crisis and uncertainty.

Keywords: COVID-19, elective surgery, NICE guidelines, quality improvement

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Authors: Chante J. De Klerk

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The potential of music to facilitate superior performance during high to elite level gymnastics conditioning instigated this research. A team of seven gymnasts completed a fixed conditioning programme eight times, alternating the two variable conditions. Four sessions of each condition were conducted: without music (session 1), with music (session 2), without music (3), with music (4), without music (5), and so forth. Quantitative data were collected in both conditions through physiological monitoring of the gymnasts, and administration of the Situational Motivation Scale (SIMS). Statistical analysis of the physiological data made it possible to quantify the presence as well as the magnitude of the musical intervention’s impact on various aspects of the gymnasts' physiological functioning during conditioning. The SIMS questionnaire results were used to evaluate if their motivation towards conditioning was altered by the intervention. Thematic analysis of qualitative data collected through semi-structured interviews revealed themes reflecting the gymnasts’ sentiments towards the data collection process. Gymnast-specific descriptions and experiences of the team as a whole were integrated with the quantitative data to facilitate greater dimension in establishing the impact of the intervention. The results showed positive physiological, motivational, and emotional effects. In the presence of music, superior sympathetic nervous activation, and energy efficiency, with more economic breathing, dominated the physiological data. Fatigue and arousal levels (emotional and physiological) were also conducive to improved conditioning outcomes compared to conventional conditioning (without music). Greater levels of positive affect and motivation emerged in analysis of both the SIMS and interview data sets. Overall, the intervention was found to promote psychophysiological coherence during the physical activity. In conclusion, a strategically constructed musical intervention, designed to accompany a gymnastics conditioning session for high to elite level gymnasts, has ergogenic potential.

Keywords: arousal, fatigue, gymnastics conditioning, motivation, musical intervention, psychophysiological coherence

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Authors: Mostafa Sefidgar, Sohrab Zendehboudi, Hossein Bazmara, Madjid Soltani

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Based on findings from clinical applications, most drug treatments fail to eliminate malignant tumors completely even though drug delivery through systemic administration may inhibit their growth. Therefore, better understanding of tumor formation is crucial in developing more effective therapeutics. For this purpose, nowadays, solid tumor modeling and simulation results are used to predict how therapeutic drugs are transported to tumor cells by blood flow through capillaries and tissues. A solid tumor is investigated as a porous media for fluid flow simulation. Most of the studies use Darcy model for porous media. In Darcy model, the fluid friction is neglected and a few simplified assumptions are implemented. In this study, the effect of these assumptions is studied by considering Brinkman model. A multi scale mathematical method which calculates fluid flow to a solid tumor is used in this study to investigate how neglecting fluid friction affects the solid tumor simulation. In this work, the mathematical model in our previous studies is developed by considering two model of momentum equation for porous media: Darcy and Brinkman. The mathematical method involves processes such as fluid flow through solid tumor as porous media, extravasation of blood flow from vessels, blood flow through vessels and solute diffusion, convective transport in extracellular matrix. The sprouting angiogenesis model is used for generating capillary network and then fluid flow governing equations are implemented to calculate blood flow through the tumor-induced capillary network. Finally, the two models of porous media are used for modeling fluid flow in normal and tumor tissues in three different shapes of tumors. Simulations of interstitial fluid transport in a solid tumor demonstrate that the simplifications used in Darcy model affect the interstitial velocity and Brinkman model predicts a lower value for interstitial velocity than the values that Darcy model does.

Keywords: solid tumor, porous media, Darcy model, Brinkman model, drug delivery

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Authors: Nagendra P. Luitel, Mark J. D. Jordans

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Globally, there is a significant gap between the number of individuals in need of mental health care and those who actually receive treatment. The evidence is accumulating that mental health services can be delivered effectively by primary health care workers through community-based programs and task-sharing approaches. Changing the role of specialist mental health workers from service delivery to building clinical capacity of the primary health care (PHC) workers could help in reducing treatment gap in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We developed a comprehensive mental health care plan in 2012 and evaluated its feasibility and effectiveness over the past three years. Initially, a mixed method formative study was conducted for the development of mental health care plan (MHCP). Routine monitoring and evaluation data, including client flow and reports of satisfaction, were obtained from beneficiaries (n=135) during the pilot-testing phase. Repeated community survey (N=2040); facility detection survey (N=4704) and the cohort study (N=576) were conducted for evaluation of the MHCP. The resulting MHCP consists of twelve packages divided over the community, health facility, and healthcare organization platforms. Detection of mental health problems increased significantly after introducing MHCP. Service implementation data support the real-life applicability of the MHCP, with reasonable treatment uptake. Currently, MHCP has been implemented in the entire Chitwan district where over 1400 people (438 people with depression, 406 people with psychosis, 181 people with epilepsy, 360 people with alcohol use disorder and 51 others) have received mental health services from trained health workers. Key barriers were identified and addressed, namely dissatisfaction with privacy, perceived burden among health workers, high drop-out rates and continue the supply of medicines. The results indicated that involvement of PHC workers in detection and management of mental health problems is an effective strategy to minimize treatment gap on mental health care in Nepal.

Keywords: mental health, Nepal, primary care, treatment gap

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Authors: Abdul Rashid, Varsha Rokade

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Service Quality within retail units is pivotal for satisfying customers and retaining them. This study on customer perception towards Service Quality variables in Retail aims to identify the dimensions and their impact on customers. An analytical study of the different retail service quality variables was done to understand the relationship between them. The study tries exploring the factors that attract the customers towards the organised and unorganised retail stores in the capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India. As organised retailers are seen as offering similar products in the outlets, improving service quality is seen as critical to ensuring competitive advantage over unorganised retailers. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire on a five-point Likert scale from existing walk-in customers of selected organised and unorganised retail stores in Bhopal City of Madhya Pradesh, India. The data was then analysed by factor analysis using (SPSS) Statistical Package for the Social Sciences especially Percentage analysis, ANOVA and Chi-Square. This study tries to find interrelationship between various Retail Service Quality dimensions, which will help the retailers to identify the steps needed to improve the overall quality of service. Thus, the findings of the study prove to be helpful in understanding the service quality variables which should be considered by organised and unorganised retail stores in Capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India.Also, findings of this empirical research reiterate the point of view that dimensions of Service Quality in Retail play an important role in enhancing customer satisfaction – a sector with high growth potential and tremendous opportunities in rapidly growing economies like India’s. With the introduction of FDI in multi-brand retailing, a large number of international retail players are expected to enter the Indian market, this intern will bring more competition in the retail sector. For benchmarking themselves with global standards, the Indian retailers will have to improve their service quality.

Keywords: organized retail, unorganised retail, retail service quality, service quality dimension

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Authors: Chimeri Muzano Leonard

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The study was carried out to investigate the perceptions of male and female Ordinary Level students on the effects of alcohol abuse at Gatsi Secondary School. The study showed that alcohol abuse has academic, social, psychological and health effects on Ordinary Level students. The negative effects comprises of death, dropping out, poor grades, poor concentration, risky behaviors, impairment of the brain and central nervous system , risky behaviors and Impairment of reproductive functioning Only students who enrolled for Ordinary Level in the 2014 academic year participated in this study. Fifty students (25 males and 25 females) were randomly selected to participate in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data. The respondents were asked to use a scale of 0 (totally disagree) to 10 (completely agree) to indicate the extent to which they agreed with each perception. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0 was used for data analysis. The Mann Whitney U test was used to test for the significance of differences in the perceptions of male and female students. No statistically significant differences were detected between males and females in most of their perceptions regarding the effects of alcohol abuse on Ordinary Level students. However, there were three perceptions found to be significantly different between male and female. They comprises of “Peers influence one to drink alcohol”, “Alcohol abuse is a major problem among male students compared to their female peers” and “ Female students should not drink beer”.It was evident from this study that Gatsi Secondary School needs to implement more effective interventions that combat alcohol abuse. A deeper analysis of the issues that predispose Ordinary Level students to alcohol abuse should inform the interventions. Consequently, unravelling the problem of negative effects of alcohol abuse was desirable because of its potential usefulness in developing strategies that might help curb the problem and presumably improve the performance of Ordinary Level students and above all the quality of education at Gatsi Secondary School.

Keywords: perceived effects, alcohol, Gatsi Secondary School, alcohol abuse

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Authors: Gi-Young Park, Dong Rak Kwon, Sung Cheol Cho

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Objective: The synovium is known to be involved in many pathological characteristic processes. Also, synovitis is common in advanced osteoarthritis. We aimed to evaluate the clinical, radiographic, and ultrasound findings in patients with knee osteoarthritis and to compare the clinical and imaging findings between knee osteoarthritis with and without synovial hypertrophy confirmed by ultrasound. Methods: One hundred knees (54 left, 46 right) in 95 patients (64 women, 31 men; mean age, 65.9 years; range, 43-85 years) with knee osteoarthritis were recruited. The Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) was used to assess the intensity of knee pain. The severity of knee osteoarthritis was classified according to Kellgren and Lawrence's (K-L) grade on a radiograph. Ultrasound examination was performed by a physiatrist who had 24 years of experience in musculoskeletal ultrasound. Ultrasound findings, including the thickness of joint effusion in the suprapatellar pouch, synovial hypertrophy, infrapatellar tendinosis, meniscal tear or extrusion, and Baker cyst, were measured and detected. The thickness of knee joint effusion was measured at the maximal anterior-posterior diameter of fluid collection in the suprapatellar pouch. Synovial hypertrophy was identified as the soft tissue of variable echogenicity, which is poorly compressible and nondisplaceable by compression of an ultrasound transducer. The knees were divided into two groups according to the presence of synovial hypertrophy. The differences in clinical and imaging findings between the two groups were evaluated by independent t-test and chi-square test. Results: Synovial hypertrophy was detected in 48 knees of 100 knees on ultrasound. There were no significant differences in demographic parameters and VAS score except in sex between the two groups (P<0.05). Medial meniscal extrusion and tear were significantly more frequent in knees with synovial hypertrophy than those in knees without synovial hypertrophy. K-L grade and joint effusion thickness were greater in patients with synovial hypertrophy than those in patients without synovial hypertrophy (P<0.05). Conclusion: Synovial hypertrophy in knee osteoarthritis was associated with greater suprapatellar joint effusion and higher K-L grade and maybe a characteristic ultrasound feature of late knee osteoarthritis. These results suggest that synovial hypertrophy on ultrasound can be regarded as a predictor of rapid progression in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

Keywords: knee osteoarthritis, synovial hypertrophy, ultrasound, K-L grade

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent's attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents’ interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: artificial stock markets, market dynamics, bounded rationality, agent based simulation, learning, interaction, social networks

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Authors: Caroline Dupre, David Hupin, Christ Goumou, Francois Belan, Frederic Roche, Thomas Celarier, Bienvenu Bongue

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Background: Previous cohorts have been notably criticized for not studying the different type of physical activity and not investigating household activities. The objective of this work was to analyse the relationship between physical activity and cognitive decline in older people living in the community. Impact of type of physical activity on the results has been realised. Methods: The study used data from the longitudinal and observational study , FrèLE (FRagility: Longitudinal Study of Expressions). The collected data included: socio-demographic variables, lifestyle, and health status (frailty, comorbidities, cognitive status, depression). Cognitive decline was assessed by using: Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Physical activity was assessed by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE). This tool is structured in three sections: the leisure activity, domestic activity, and professional activity. Logistic regressions and proportional hazards regression models (Cox) were used to estimate the risk of cognitive disorders. Results: At baseline, the prevalence of cognitive disorders was 6.9% according to MMSE. In total, 1167 participants without cognitive disorders were included in the analysis. The mean age was 77.4 years, and 52.1% of the participants were women. After a 2 years long follow-up, we found cognitive disorders on 53 participants (4.5%). Physical activity at baseline is lower in older adults for whom cognitive decline was observed after two years of follow-up. Subclass analyses showed that leisure and domestic activities were associated with cognitive decline, but not professional activities. Conclusions: Analysis showed a relationship between cognitive disorders and type of physical activity. The current study will be completed by the MoCA for mild cognitive impairment. These findings compared to other ongoing studies, will contribute to the debate on the beneficial effects of physical activity on cognition.

Keywords: aging, cognitive function, physical activity, mixed models

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