Search results for: material uncertainty
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7374

Search results for: material uncertainty

7224 Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Projections over Uganda by Numerical Models Using Bias Correction

Authors: Isaac Mugume

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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7223 Residual Affects of Humic Matter from Sub-Bituminous in Binding Aluminium at Oxisol to Increase Production of Upland Rice

Authors: Herviyanti, Gusnidar, M. Harianti

Abstract:

The objective of this research were: a) using low-rank coal (subbituminous) as main humate material sources because this material will not be anthracite, and cannot using to be an energy sources b) to examine residual effects of humic matter from subbituminous which was combined with P fertilizers to adsorp Al and Fe metal, improving soil fertility, and increasing P fertilizing efficiency and Oxisol productivity. Therefore, optimalization crop productivity of upland rice can be achieved. The experiment was designed using a 3 x 4 factorial with 3 replications in randomly groups design. The 1st factor was 3 ways incubating humate material with P-fertilizer, which are: I1 = Incubation of humate material 1 week, then incubation P-fertilizers 1 week; I2 = Incubation of humate materials and P fertilizers directly into the soil for 2 weeks; and I3 = humate material and P fertilizer mixed for 1 week, then incubation to the soil for 1 week. The 2nd factor was residual effects of humate material and P-fertilizer combination which are 4 doses H1 = 400 ppm (0.8 Mg/ha) + 100% R; H2 = 400 ppm + 75% R; H3 = 800 ppm (1.6 Mg/ha) + 100% R,; and H4 = 800 ppm + 75% R. The 2nd year research results showed that the best treatment was founded residue effect of 800 ppm humate material and 100% R P-fertilizer doses in I3 way incubation that is equal to 6.19 t ha-1 upland rice yield. However, this result is almost the same as residual effects of 800 ppm humate material + 75% R P-fertilizer doses and upland rice yield the 1st year. It was concluded that addition of humate material can given the efficiency of P-fertilizer using up to 25% until the 2nd season planted.

Keywords: humate materials, P-fertilizer, subbituminous, upland rice

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7222 Probabilistic Simulation of Triaxial Undrained Cyclic Behavior of Soils

Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

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7221 Development and Characterization of a Bio-Sourced Composite Material Based on Phase Change Material and Hemp Shives

Authors: Hachmi Toifane, Pierre Tittelein, Anh Dung Tran Le, Laurent Zalewsi

Abstract:

This study introduces a composite material composed of bio-sourced phase-change material (PCM) of plant origin combined with hemp shives, developed in response to environmental challenges in the construction sector. The state of the art emphasizes the low thermal storage capacity of bio-based materials and highlights increasing need for developing sustainable materials that offer optimal thermal, mechanical, and hydric performances. The combining of PCM's thermal properties and hygric properties of hemp shives results in a material that combines lightness, strength, and hygrothermal regulation. Various formulations are being assessed and compared to conventional hemp concrete. Thermal characterization includes the measurements of thermal conductivity and numerical simulations to evaluate the thermal storage capacity. The results indicate that the addition of PCM significantly enhances the material's thermal storage capacity, positioning this one as a promising, eco-friendly solution for sustainable construction and for improving the energy efficiency of buildings.

Keywords: hemp composite, bio-sourced phase change material, thermal storage, hemp shives

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7220 Objective Assessment of the Evolution of Microplastic Contamination in Sediments from a Vast Coastal Area

Authors: Vanessa Morgado, Ricardo Bettencourt da Silva, Carla Palma

Abstract:

The environmental pollution by microplastics is well recognized. Microplastics were already detected in various matrices from distinct environmental compartments worldwide, some from remote areas. Various methodologies and techniques have been used to determine microplastic in such matrices, for instance, sediment samples from the ocean bottom. In order to determine microplastics in a sediment matrix, the sample is typically sieved through a 5 mm mesh, digested to remove the organic matter, and density separated to isolate microplastics from the denser part of the sediment. The physical analysis of microplastic consists of visual analysis under a stereomicroscope to determine particle size, colour, and shape. The chemical analysis is performed by an infrared spectrometer coupled to a microscope (micro-FTIR), allowing to the identification of the chemical composition of microplastic, i.e., the type of polymer. Creating legislation and policies to control and manage (micro)plastic pollution is essential to protect the environment, namely the coastal areas. The regulation is defined from the known relevance and trends of the pollution type. This work discusses the assessment of contamination trends of a 700 km² oceanic area affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of the analysis of collected samples. The methodology developed consists of objectively identifying meaningful variations of microplastic contamination by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty sources. This work allowed us to unequivocally conclude that the contamination level of the studied area did not vary significantly between two consecutive years (2018 and 2019) and that PET microplastics are the major type of polymer. The comparison of contamination levels was performed for a 99% confidence level. The developed know-how is crucial for the objective and binding determination of microplastic contamination in relevant environmental compartments.

Keywords: measurement uncertainty, micro-ATR-FTIR, microplastics, ocean contamination, sampling uncertainty

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7219 Material Fracture Dynamic of Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Blade

Authors: Samir Lecheb, Ahmed Chellil, Hamza Mechakra, Brahim Safi, Houcine Kebir

Abstract:

In this paper we studied fracture and dynamic behavior of vertical axis wind turbine blade, the VAWT is a historical machine, it has many properties, structure, advantage, component to be able to produce the electricity. We modeled the blade design then imported to Abaqus software for analysis the modes shapes, frequencies, stress, strain, displacement and stress intensity factor SIF, after comparison we chose the idol material. Finally, the CTS test of glass epoxy reinforced polymer plates to obtain the material fracture toughness Kc.

Keywords: blade, crack, frequency, material, SIF

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7218 Supply Chain Optimization for Silica Sand in a Glass Manufacturing Company

Authors: Ramon Erasmo Verdin Rodriguez

Abstract:

Many has been the ways that historically the managers and gurus has been trying to get closer to the perfect supply chain, but since this topic is so vast and very complex the bigger the companies are, the duty has not been certainly easy. On this research, you are going to see thru the entrails of the logistics that happens at a glass manufacturing company with the number one raw material of the process that is the silica sand. After a very quick passage thru the supply chain, this document is going to focus on the way that raw materials flow thru the system, so after that, an analysis and research can take place to improve the logistics. Thru Operations Research techniques, it will be analyzed the current scheme of distribution and inventories of raw materials at a glass company’s plants, so after a mathematical conceptualization process, the supply chain could be optimized with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of supply and obtaining an economic benefit at the very end of this research.

Keywords: inventory management, operations research, optimization, supply chain

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7217 Location Uncertainty – A Probablistic Solution for Automatic Train Control

Authors: Monish Sengupta, Benjamin Heydecker, Daniel Woodland

Abstract:

New train control systems rely mainly on Automatic Train Protection (ATP) and Automatic Train Operation (ATO) dynamically to control the speed and hence performance. The ATP and the ATO form the vital element within the CBTC (Communication Based Train Control) and within the ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) system architectures. Reliable and accurate measurement of train location, speed and acceleration are vital to the operation of train control systems. In the past, all CBTC and ERTMS system have deployed a balise or equivalent to correct the uncertainty element of the train location. Typically a CBTC train is allowed to miss only one balise on the track, after which the Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system applies emergency brake to halt the service. This is because the location uncertainty, which grows within the train control system, cannot tolerate missing more than one balise. Balises contribute a significant amount towards wayside maintenance and studies have shown that balises on the track also forms a constraint for future track layout change and change in speed profile.This paper investigates the causes of the location uncertainty that is currently experienced and considers whether it is possible to identify an effective filter to ascertain, in conjunction with appropriate sensors, more accurate speed, distance and location for a CBTC driven train without the need of any external balises. An appropriate sensor fusion algorithm and intelligent sensor selection methodology will be deployed to ascertain the railway location and speed measurement at its highest precision. Similar techniques are already in use in aviation, satellite, submarine and other navigation systems. Developing a model for the speed control and the use of Kalman filter is a key element in this research. This paper will summarize the research undertaken and its significant findings, highlighting the potential for introducing alternative approaches to train positioning that would enable removal of all trackside location correction balises, leading to huge reduction in maintenances and more flexibility in future track design.

Keywords: ERTMS, CBTC, ATP, ATO

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7216 Robust Stabilization of Rotational Motion of Underwater Robots against Parameter Uncertainties

Authors: Riku Hayashida, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

This paper provides a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. Underwater robots are expected to be used for various work assignments. The large variety of applications of underwater robots motivates researchers to develop control systems and technologies for underwater robots. Several control methods have been proposed so far for the stabilization of nominal system model of underwater robots with no parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainties are considered to be obstacles in implementation of the such nominal control methods for underwater robots. The objective of this study is to establish a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: robust control, stabilization method, underwater robot, parameter uncertainty

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7215 Uncertainty Quantification of Fuel Compositions on Premixed Bio-Syngas Combustion at High-Pressure

Authors: Kai Zhang, Xi Jiang

Abstract:

Effect of fuel variabilities on premixed combustion of bio-syngas mixtures is of great importance in bio-syngas utilisation. The uncertainties of concentrations of fuel constituents such as H2, CO and CH4 may lead to unpredictable combustion performances, combustion instabilities and hot spots which may deteriorate and damage the combustion hardware. Numerical modelling and simulations can assist in understanding the behaviour of bio-syngas combustion with pre-defined species concentrations, while the evaluation of variabilities of concentrations is expensive. To be more specific, questions such as ‘what is the burning velocity of bio-syngas at specific equivalence ratio?’ have been answered either experimentally or numerically, while questions such as ‘what is the likelihood of burning velocity when precise concentrations of bio-syngas compositions are unknown, but the concentration ranges are pre-described?’ have not yet been answered. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to tackle such questions and assess the effects of fuel compositions. An efficient probabilistic UQ method based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) techniques is employed in this study. The method relies on representing random variables (combustion performances) with orthogonal polynomials such as Legendre or Gaussian polynomials. The constructed PCE via Galerkin Projection provides easy access to global sensitivities such as main, joint and total Sobol indices. In this study, impacts of fuel compositions on combustion (adiabatic flame temperature and laminar flame speed) of bio-syngas fuel mixtures are presented invoking this PCE technique at several equivalence ratios. High-pressure effects on bio-syngas combustion instability are obtained using detailed chemical mechanism - the San Diego Mechanism. Guidance on reducing combustion instability from upstream biomass gasification process is provided by quantifying the significant contributions of composition variations to variance of physicochemical properties of bio-syngas combustion. It was found that flame speed is very sensitive to hydrogen variability in bio-syngas, and reducing hydrogen uncertainty from upstream biomass gasification processes can greatly reduce bio-syngas combustion instability. Variation of methane concentration, although thought to be important, has limited impacts on laminar flame instabilities especially for lean combustion. Further studies on the UQ of percentage concentration of hydrogen in bio-syngas can be conducted to guide the safer use of bio-syngas.

Keywords: bio-syngas combustion, clean energy utilisation, fuel variability, PCE, targeted uncertainty reduction, uncertainty quantification

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7214 Characterization of Carbon/Polyamide 6,6 (C/PA66) Composite Material for Dry and Wet Conditions

Authors: Tariq Bashir, Muhammad Waseem Tahir, Ulf Stigh, Behnaz Baghaie, Mikael Skrifvars

Abstract:

Absorption of moisture may cause many problems in a composite material, such as delamination, degradation of the strength and increase in the weight. For small coupons, the increase in weight may be negligible, however, for large structures increase in weight due to moisture absorption may be quite significant. Polyamides (PA6, PA66) absorb more moisture as compared to other thermoplastics. There are many parameters which affect the moisture absorption of the composite material for example temperature, pressure, type of matrix and fibers, thickness of the material and relative humidity (RH) etc. So, it is utmost important to investigate the impact of moisture on PA66 based composites which can be done by characterizing the mechanical properties of composite materials both for dry and wet conditions. In this study, laminates of C/PA66 composite are manufactured by first heating the commingled material in conventional oven at a temperature of 220 °C followed by pressing in a manual hot press for 20 minutes with preheated platen at 220 °C. To observe the moisture absorption of the composite, coupons of the material were placed in a climate chamber at five different conditions 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% RH for 24 hours. Five specimens were used for each condition. These coupons were weighed before placing in the climate chamber and just after removing from the chamber to observe the moisture absorption of the material. The mechanical characterization such as tensile strength, flexural modulus, impact strength and DMTA of C/PA66 material are performed at 0, 50 and 100 % RH. The work is going on for the testing of the material and results will be presented in full paper.

Keywords: Carbon/Polyamide 66 composites, structural composites, mechanical characterizations, wet and dry conditions

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7213 [Keynote Talk]: Evidence Fusion in Decision Making

Authors: Mohammad Abdullah-Al-Wadud

Abstract:

In the current era of automation and artificial intelligence, different systems have been increasingly keeping on depending on decision-making capabilities of machines. Such systems/applications may range from simple classifiers to sophisticated surveillance systems based on traditional sensors and related equipment which are becoming more common in the internet of things (IoT) paradigm. However, the available data for such problems are usually imprecise and incomplete, which leads to uncertainty in decisions made based on traditional probability-based classifiers. This requires a robust fusion framework to combine the available information sources with some degree of certainty. The theory of evidence can provide with such a method for combining evidence from different (may be unreliable) sources/observers. This talk will address the employment of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence in some practical applications.

Keywords: decision making, dempster-shafer theory, evidence fusion, incomplete data, uncertainty

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7212 Assessment of the Potential of Fuel-derived Rice Husk Ash as Pozzolanic Material

Authors: Jesha Faye T. Librea, Leslie Joy L. Diaz

Abstract:

Fuel-derived rice husk ash (fRHA) is a waste material from industries employing rice husk as a biomass fuel which, on the downside, causes disposal and environmental problems. To mitigate this, the fRHA was evaluated for use in other applications such as a pozzolanic material for the construction industry. In this study, the assessment of the potential of fRHA as pozzolanic supplementary cementitious material was conducted by determining the chemical and physical properties of fRHA according to ASTM C618, evaluating the fineness of the material according to ASTM C430, and determining its pozzolanic activity using Luxan Method. The material was found to have a high amorphous silica content of around 95.82 % with traces of alkaline and carbon impurities. The retained carbon residue is 7.18 %, which is within the limit of the specifications for natural pozzolans indicated in ASTM C618. The fineness of the fRHA is at 88.88 % retained at a 45-micron sieve, which, however, exceeded the limit of 34 %. This large particle size distribution was found to affect the pozzolanic activity of the fRHA. This was shown in the Luxan test, where the fRHA was identified as non-pozzolan due to its low pozzolanic activity index of 0.262. Thus, further processing must be done to the fRHA to pass the required ASTM fineness, have a higher pozzolanic activity index, and fully qualify as a pozzolanic material.

Keywords: rice husk ash, pozzolanic, fuel-derived ash, supplementary cementitious material

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7211 Review on PETG Material Parts Made Using Fused Deposition Modeling

Authors: Dhval Chauhan, Mahesh Chudasama

Abstract:

This study has been undertaken to give a review of Polyethylene Terephthalate Glycol (PETG) material used in Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM). This paper offers a review of the existing literature on polyethylene terephthalate glycol (PETG) material, the objective of the paper is to providing guidance on different process parameters that can be used to improve the strength of the part by performing various testing like tensile, compressive, flexural, etc. This work is target to find new paths that can be used for further development of the use of fiber reinforcement in PETG material.

Keywords: PETG, FDM, tensile strength, flexural strength, fiber reinforcement

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7210 Communication of Expected Survival Time to Cancer Patients: How It Is Done and How It Should Be Done

Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

Abstract:

Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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7209 Pre-Lithiation of SiO₂ Nanoparticles-Based Anode for Lithium Ion Battery Application

Authors: Soraya Hoornam, Zeinab Sanaee

Abstract:

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used for providing energy for mobile electronic devices. Graphite is a traditional anode material that was used in almost all commercialized lithium-ion batteries. It gives a specific capacity of 372 mAh/g for lithium storage. But there are multiple better choices for storing lithium that propose significantly higher specific capacities. As an example, silicon-based materials can be mentioned. In this regard, SiO₂ material can offer a huge specific capacity of 1965 mAh/g. Due to this high lithium storage ability, large volume change occurs in this electrode material during insertion and extraction of lithium, which may lead to cracking and destruction of the electrode. The use of nanomaterials instead of bulk material can significantly solve this problem. In addition, if we insert lithium in the active material of the battery before its cycling, which is called pre-lithiation, a further enhancement in the performance is expected. Here, we have fabricated an anode electrode of the battery using SiO₂ nanomaterial mixed with Graphite and assembled a lithium-ion battery half-cell with this electrode. Next, a pre-lithiation was performed on the SiO₂ nanoparticle-containing electrode, and the resulting anode material was investigated. This electrode has great potential for high-performance lithium-ion batteries.

Keywords: SiO₂ nanoparticles, lithium-ion battery, pre-lithiation, anode material

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7208 Electro-Thermo-Mechanical Behaviour of Functionally Graded Material Usage in Lead Acid Storage Batteries and the Benefits

Authors: Sandeep Das

Abstract:

Terminal post is one of the most important features of a Battery. The design and manufacturing of post are very much critical especially when threaded inserts (Bolt-on type) are used since all the collected energy is delivered from the lead part to the threaded insert (Cu or Cu alloy). Any imperfection at the interface may cause Voltage drop, high resistance, high heat generation, etc. This may be because of sudden change of material properties from lead to Cu alloys. To avoid this problem, a scheme of material gradation is proposed for achieving continuous variation of material properties for the Post used in commercially available lead acid battery. The Functionally graded (FG) material for the post is considered to be composed of different layers of homogeneous material. The volume fraction of the materials used corresponding to each layer is calculated by considering its variation along the direction of current flow (z) according to a power law. Accordingly, the effective properties of the homogeneous layers are estimated and the Post composed of this FG material is modeled using the commercially available ANSYS software. The solid 186 layered structural solid element has been used for discretization of the model of the FG Post. A thermal electric analysis is performed on the layered FG model. The model developed has been validated by comparing the results of the existing Post model& experimental analysis

Keywords: ANSYS, functionally graded material, lead-acid battery, terminal post

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7207 The Computational Psycholinguistic Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System Under Uncertainty

Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

Abstract:

The models of the modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) cannot: a) independently and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, cognize, infer, and more in state of Uncertainty, and changes in situations, and environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU) using a neural network as its computational memory, operating under uncertainty, and activating its functions by perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, forming images of these objects, modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, and images, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, Wisdom, analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge in the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of Situational Control, Fuzzy Logic, Psycholinguistics, Informatics, and modern possibilities of Data Science were applied. The proposed self-controlled System of Brain and Mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject Applications.

Keywords: computational brain, mind, psycholinguistic, system, under uncertainty

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7206 Parameter Estimation of False Dynamic EIV Model with Additive Uncertainty

Authors: Dalvinder Kaur Mangal

Abstract:

For the past decade, noise corrupted output measurements have been a fundamental research problem to be investigated. On the other hand, the estimation of the parameters for linear dynamic systems when also the input is affected by noise is recognized as more difficult problem which only recently has received increasing attention. Representations where errors or measurement noises/disturbances are present on both the inputs and outputs are usually called errors-in-variables (EIV) models. These disturbances may also have additive effects which are also considered in this paper. Parameter estimation of false EIV problem using equation error, output error and iterative prefiltering identification schemes with and without additive uncertainty, when only the output observation is corrupted by noise has been dealt in this paper. The comparative study of these three schemes has also been carried out.

Keywords: errors-in-variable (EIV), false EIV, equation error, output error, iterative prefiltering, Gaussian noise

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7205 Simulation and Experimentation Investigation of Infrared Non-Destructive Testing on Thermal Insulation Material

Authors: Bi Yan-Qiang, Shang Yonghong, Lin Boying, Ji Xinyan, Li Xiyuan

Abstract:

The heat-resistant material has important application in the aerospace field. The reliability of the connection between the heat-resisting material and the body determines the success or failure of the project. In this paper, lock-in infrared thermography non-destructive testing technology is used to detect the stability of the thermal-resistant structure. The phase relationship between the temperature and the heat flow is calculated by the numerical method, and the influence of the heating frequency and power is obtained. The correctness of the analysis is verified by the experimental method. Through the research, it can provide the basis for the parameter setting of heat flux including frequency and power, improve the efficiency of detection and the reliability of connection between the heat-resisting material and the body.

Keywords: infrared non-destructive, thermal insulation material, reliability, connection

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7204 A Conceptual Framework and a Mathematical Equation for Managing Construction-Material Waste and Cost Overruns

Authors: Saidu Ibrahim, Winston M. W. Shakantu

Abstract:

The problem of construction material waste remains unresolved, as a significant percentage of the materials delivered to some project sites end up as waste which might result in additional project cost. Cost overrun is a problem which affects 90% of the completed projects in the world. The argument on how to eliminate it has been on-going for the past 70 years, but there is neither substantial improvement nor significant solution for mitigating its detrimental effects. Research evidence has proposed various construction cost overruns and material-waste management approaches; nonetheless, these studies failed to give a clear indication on the framework and the equation for managing construction material waste and cost overruns. Hence, this research aims to develop a conceptual framework and a mathematical equation for managing material waste and cost overrun in the construction industry. The paper adopts the desktop methodological approach. This involves comparing the causes of material waste and those of cost overruns from the literature to determine the possible relationship. The review revealed a relationship between material waste and cost overrun that; increase in material waste would result to a corresponding increase in the amount of cost overrun at both the pre-contract and the post contract stages of a project. It was found from the equation that achieving an effective construction material waste management must ensure a “Good Quality-of-Planning, Estimating, and Design Management” and a “Good Quality- of-Construction, Procurement and Site Management”; a decrease in “Design Complexity” which would reduce “Material Waste” and subsequently reduce the amount of cost overrun by 86.74%. The conceptual framework and the mathematical equation developed in this study are recommended to the professionals of the construction industry.

Keywords: conceptual framework, cost overrun, material waste, project stags

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7203 Texture Observation of Bending by XRD and EBSD Method

Authors: Takashi Sakai, Yuri Shimomura

Abstract:

The crystal orientation is a factor that affects the microscopic material properties. Crystal orientation determines the anisotropy of the polycrystalline material. And it is closely related to the mechanical properties of the material. In this paper, for pure copper polycrystalline material, two different methods; X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD); and the crystal orientation were analyzed. In the latter method, it is possible that the X-ray beam diameter is thicker as compared to the former, to measure the crystal orientation macroscopically relatively. By measurement of the above, we investigated the change in crystal orientation and internal tissues of pure copper.

Keywords: bending, electron backscatter diffraction, X-ray diffraction, microstructure, IPF map, orientation distribution function

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7202 Study of Bolt Inclination in a Composite Single Bolted Joint

Authors: Faci Youcef, Ahmed Mebtouche, Djillali Allou, Maalem Badredine

Abstract:

The inclination of the bolt in a fastened joint of composite material during a tensile test can be influenced by several parameters, including material properties, bolt diameter and length, the type of composite material being used, the size and dimensions of the bolt, bolt preload, surface preparation, the design and configuration of the joint, and finally testing conditions. These parameters should be carefully considered and controlled to ensure accurate and reliable results during tensile testing of composite materials with fastened joints. Our work focuses on the effect of the stacking sequence and the geometry of specimens. An experimental test is carried out to obtain the inclination of a bolt during a tensile test of a composite material using acoustic emission and digital image correlation. Several types of damage were obtained during the load. Digital image correlation techniques permit the obtaining of the inclination of bolt angle value during tensile test. We concluded that the inclination of the bolt during a tensile test of a composite material can be related to the damage that occurs in the material. It can cause stress concentrations and localized deformation in the material, leading to damage such as delamination, fiber breakage, matrix cracking, and other forms of failure.

Keywords: damage, inclination, analyzed, carbon

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7201 Multi-Period Supply Chain Design under Uncertainty

Authors: Amir Azaron

Abstract:

In this research, a stochastic programming approach is developed for designing supply chains with uncertain parameters. Demands and selling prices of products at markets are considered as the uncertain parameters. The proposed mathematical model will be multi-period two-stage stochastic programming, which takes into account the selection of retailer sites, suppliers, production levels, inventory levels, transportation modes to be used for shipping goods, and shipping quantities among the entities of the supply chain network. The objective function is to maximize the chain’s net present value. In order to maximize the chain’s NPV, the sum of first-stage investment costs on retailers, and the expected second-stage processing, inventory-holding and transportation costs should be kept as low as possible over multiple periods. The effects of supply uncertainty where suppliers are unreliable will also be investigated on the efficiency of the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain management, stochastic programming, multiobjective programming, inventory control

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7200 Improving Sales through Inventory Reduction: A Retail Chain Case Study

Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

Abstract:

Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
7199 The Design Optimization for Sound Absorption Material of Multi-Layer Structure

Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Kyu Park

Abstract:

Sound absorbing material is used as automotive interior material. Sound absorption coefficient should be predicted to design it. But it is difficult to predict sound absorbing coefficient because it is comprised of several material layers. So, its targets are achieved through many experimental tunings. It causes a lot of cost and time. In this paper, we propose the process to estimate the sound absorption coefficient with multi-layer structure. In order to estimate the coefficient, physical properties of each material are used. These properties also use predicted values by Foam-X software using the sound absorption coefficient data measured by impedance tube. Since there are many physical properties and the measurement equipment is expensive, the values predicted by software are used. Through the measurement of the sound absorption coefficient of each material, its physical properties are calculated inversely. The properties of each material are used to calculate the sound absorption coefficient of the multi-layer material. Since the absorption coefficient of multi-layer can be calculated, optimization design is possible through simulation. Then, we will compare and analyze the calculated sound absorption coefficient with the data measured by scaled reverberation chamber and impedance tubes for a prototype. If this method is used when developing automotive interior materials with multi-layer structure, the development effort can be reduced because it can be optimized by simulation. So, cost and time can be saved.

Keywords: sound absorption material, sound impedance tube, sound absorption coefficient, optimization design

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7198 Utilization of Fly Ash as Backfilling Material in Indian Coal Mines

Authors: P. Venkata Karthik, B. Kranthi Kumar

Abstract:

Fly ash is a solid waste product of coal based electric power generating plants. Fly ash is the finest of coal ash particles and it is transported from the combustion chamber by exhaust gases. Fly ash is removed by particulate emission control devices such as electrostatic precipitators or filter fabric bag-houses. It is a fine material with spherical particles. Large quantities of fly ash discharged from coal-fired power stations are a major problem not only in terms of scarcity of land available for its disposal, but also in environmental aspects. Fly ash can be one of the alternatives and can be a viable option to use as a filling material. This paper contains the problems associated with fly ash generation, need for its management and the efficacy of fly ash composite as a backfilling material. By conducting suitable geotechnical investigations and numerical modelling techniques, the fly ash composite material was tested. It also contains case studies of typical Indian opencast and underground coal mines.

Keywords: backfilling, fly ash, high concentration slurry disposal, power plant, void infilling

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7197 Development of Cathode for Hybrid Zinc Ion Supercapacitor Using Secondary Marigold Floral Waste for Green Energy Application

Authors: Syali Pradhan, Neetu Jha

Abstract:

The Marigold flower is used in religious places for offering and decoration purpose every day. The flowers are discarded near trees or in aquatic bodies. This floral waste can be used for extracting dyes or oils. Still the secondary waste remains after processing which need to be addressed. This research aims to provide green and clean power using secondary floral waste available after processing. The carbonization of floral waste produce carbon material with high surface area and enhance active site for more reaction. The Hybrid supercapacitors are more stable, offer improved operating temperature and use less toxic material compared to battery. They provide enhanced energy density compared to supercapacitors. Hence, hybrid supercapacitor designed using waste material would be more practicable for future energy application. Here, we present the utilization of carbonized floral waste as supercapacitor electrode material. This material after carbonization gets graphitized and shows high surface area, optimum porosity along with high conductivity. Hence, this material has been tested as cathode electrode material for high performance zinc storage hybrid supercapacitor. High energy storage along with high stability has been obtained using this cathodic waste material as electrode.

Keywords: marigold, flower waste, energy storage, cathode, supercapacitor

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
7196 Considering Aerosol Processes in Nuclear Transport Package Containment Safety Cases

Authors: Andrew Cummings, Rhianne Boag, Sarah Bryson, Gordon Turner

Abstract:

Packages designed for transport of radioactive material must satisfy rigorous safety regulations specified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Higher Activity Waste (HAW) transport packages have to maintain containment of their contents during normal and accident conditions of transport (NCT and ACT). To ensure containment criteria is satisfied these packages are required to be leak-tight in all transport conditions to meet allowable activity release rates. Package design safety reports are the safety cases that provide the claims, evidence and arguments to demonstrate that packages meet the regulations and once approved by the competent authority (in the UK this is the Office for Nuclear Regulation) a licence to transport radioactive material is issued for the package(s). The standard approach to demonstrating containment in the RWM transport safety case is set out in BS EN ISO 12807. In this document a method for measuring a leak rate from the package is explained by way of a small interspace test volume situated between two O-ring seals on the underside of the package lid. The interspace volume is pressurised and a pressure drop measured. A small interspace test volume makes the method more sensitive enabling the measurement of smaller leak rates. By ascertaining the activity of the contents, identifying a releasable fraction of material and by treating that fraction of material as a gas, allowable leak rates for NCT and ACT are calculated. The adherence to basic safety principles in ISO12807 is very pessimistic and current practice in the demonstration of transport safety, which is accepted by the UK regulator. It is UK government policy that management of HAW will be through geological disposal. It is proposed that the intermediate level waste be transported to the geological disposal facility (GDF) in large cuboid packages. This poses a challenge for containment demonstration because such packages will have long seals and therefore large interspace test volumes. There is also uncertainty on the releasable fraction of material within the package ullage space. This is because the waste may be in many different forms which makes it difficult to define the fraction of material released by the waste package. Additionally because of the large interspace test volume, measuring the calculated leak rates may not be achievable. For this reason a justification for a lower releasable fraction of material is sought. This paper considers the use of aerosol processes to reduce the releasable fraction for both NCT and ACT. It reviews the basic coagulation and removal processes and applies the dynamic aerosol balance equation. The proposed solution includes only the most well understood physical processes namely; Brownian coagulation and gravitational settling. Other processes have been eliminated either on the basis that they would serve to reduce the release to the environment further (pessimistically in keeping with the essence of nuclear transport safety cases) or that they are not credible in the conditions of transport considered.

Keywords: aerosol processes, Brownian coagulation, gravitational settling, transport regulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
7195 Improving Load Frequency Control of Multi-Area Power System by Considering Uncertainty by Using Optimized Type 2 Fuzzy Pid Controller with the Harmony Search Algorithm

Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

Abstract:

This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: load frequency control, fuzzy-pid controller, type 2 fuzzy system, harmony search algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 238