Search results for: housing prices index

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Paulin Mbecke

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Research Issue: Under economic constraints, socio-economic conditions of households worsen discounting child’s wellbeing to the bottom of many governments and households’ priority lists. In such situation, many governments fail to rebalance priorities in providing services such as education, housing and social security which are the prerequisites for the wellbeing of children. Consequently, many households struggle to respond to basic needs especially those of children. Although economic conditions play a crucial role in creating prosperity or poverty in households and therefore the wellbeing or misery for children; they are not the sole cause. Research Insights: The review of the South African Index of Multiple Deprivation and the South African Child Gauge establish the extent to which economic conditions impact on the wellbeing or misery of children. The analysis of social, cultural, environmental and structural theories demonstrates that non-economic factors contribute equally to the wellbeing or misery of children, yet, they are disregarded. In addition, the assessment of a child abuse database proves a weak correlation between economic factors (prosperity or poverty) and child’s wellbeing or misery. Theoretical Implications: Through critical social research theory and modelling, the paper proposes a Theory-Based Model that combines different factors to facilitate the understanding of child’s wellbeing or misery. Policy Implications: The proposed model assists in broad policy and decision making and reviews processes in promoting child’s wellbeing and in preventing, intervening and managing child’s misery with regard to education, housing, and social security.

Keywords: children, child’s misery, child’s wellbeing, household’s despair, household’s prosperity

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Authors: Elise Machline

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In the late 1980’s, sustainable urban development emerged in Europe. Sustainable neighborhoods are one attempt to implement sustainable urban energy planning in the city. So, for twenty years, projects of sustainable neighborhoods (or ‘eco-neighborhoods’) have emerged in Europe. Debates about sustainability no longer restrict it to environmental concerns (to limit greenhouse gas emissions), but rather extend to the economic and social dimensions. A growing number of empirical studies demonstrate that sustainable urbanism yield rental/sale premia, as well as higher occupancy rates and thus higher asset values. For example, European eco neighborhood projects usually focus on the middle to upper classes, given the costs involved in renting or buying the dwellings built in such projects. As a result sustainable residential buildings are not affordable and their construction tends to have a gentrifying effect. An increasing number of countries are institutionalizing green strategies for affordable housing. In France, the sustainable neighborhoods ‘ecoquartier’ must meet environmental performance criteria, have a potential for economic development and, provide social and functional diversity. The issue of social diversity trough the provision of affordable housing has emerged as a dimension of public housing policies. Thus, the ecoquartier residential buildings must be both energy efficient and affordable. Through the Parisian example our study considers how the concept of social diversity and other elements of sustainability are illustrated in the ecoquartiers and whether the authorities have been able to avoid gentrification when implementing a sustainable urban policy.

Keywords: sustainable neighborhoods, social diversity, social housing policies, green buildings

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Authors: Amol Lanke, Hadi Hoseinie, Behzad Ghodrati

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OEE has been used in many industries as measure of performance. However due to limitations of original OEE, it has been modified by various researchers. OEE for mining application is special version of classic equation, carries these limitation over. In this paper it has been aimed to modify the OEE for mining application by introducing the weights to the elements of it and termed as Mine Production index (MPi). As a special application of new index MPi shovel has been developed by team of experts and researchers for evaluating the shovel effectiveness. Based on analysis, utilization followed by performance and availability were ranked in this order. To check the applicability of this index, a case study was done on four electrical and one hydraulic shovel in a Swedish mine. The results shows that MPishovelcan properly evaluate production effectiveness of shovels and determine effectiveness values in optimistic view compared to OEE. MPi with calculation not only give the effectiveness but also can predict which elements should be focused for improving the productivity.

Keywords: mining, overall equipment efficiency (OEE), mine production index, shovels

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Authors: Jonathan R. Olsen, Natalie Nicholls, Jenna Panter, Hannah Burnett, Michael Tornow, Richard Mitchell

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The 20-minute neighborhood is a policy priority for governments worldwide and a key feature of this policy is providing access to natural space within 800 meters of home. The study aims were to (1) examine the association between distance to nearest natural space and frequent use over time and (2) examine whether frequent use and changes in use were patterned by income and housing tenure over time. Bi-annual Scottish Household Survey data were obtained for 2013 to 2019 (n:42128 aged 16+). Adults were asked the walking distance to their nearest natural space, the frequency of visits to this space and their housing tenure, as well as age, sex and income. We examined the association between distance from home of nearest natural space, housing tenure, and the likelihood of frequent natural space use (visited once a week or more). Two-way interaction terms were further applied to explore variation in the association between tenure and frequent natural space use over time. We found that 87% of respondents lived within 10 minute walk of a natural space, meeting the policy specification for a 20-minute neighbourhood. Greater proximity to natural space was associated with increased use; individuals living a 6 to 10 minute walk and over 10 minute walk were respectively 53% and 78% less likely to report frequent natural space use than those living within a 5 minute walk. Housing tenure was an important predictor of frequent natural space use; private renters and homeowners were more likely to report frequent natural space use than social renters. Our findings provide evidence that proximity to natural space is a strong predictor of frequent use. Our study provides important evidence that time-based access measures alone do not consider deep-rooted socioeconomic variation in use of Natural space. Policy makers should ensure a nuanced lens is applied to operationalising and monitoring the 20-minute neighbourhood to safeguard against exacerbating existing inequalities.

Keywords: natural space, housing, inequalities, 20-minute neighbourhood, urban design

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Authors: S. Yessengabulov, A. Uyzbayeva

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Residential buildings fund of Kazakhstan was built in the Soviet time about 35-60 years ago without considering energy efficiency measures. Currently, most of these buildings are in a rundown condition and fail to meet the minimum of hygienic, sanitary and comfortable living requirements. The paper aims to examine the reports of recent building energy survey activities in the country and provide a possible solution for retrofitting existing housing stock built before 1989 which could be applicable for building envelope in cold climate. Methodology also includes two-dimensional modeling of possible practical solutions and further recommendations.

Keywords: energy audit, energy efficient buildings in Kazakhstan, retrofit, two-dimensional conduction heat transfer analysis

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Authors: Yun Zhang

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Urban housing in China is typified by residential districts that occupy 25 to 40 percentage of the urban land. In residential districts, squares, roads, and building facades, as well as plants, usually form a four-grade spatial structure: district entrances, central landscapes, housing cluster entrances, green spaces between dwellings. This spatial structure and its elements not only compose the visible residential landscape but also play a major role of carrying rain water. These elements, therefore, imply ecological significance to urban fitness. Based upon theories of landscape ecology, residential landscape can be understood as a pattern typified by minor soft patch of planted area and major hard patch of buildings and squares, as well as hard corridors of roads. Use five landscape districts in Hangzhou as examples; this paper finds that the size, shape and slope direction of soft patch, the bend of roads, and the form of the four-grade spatial structure are influential for adapting to natural rainwater circulation.

Keywords: Hangzhou China, rainwater, residential landscape, spatial character, urban housing

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Authors: Mehmet Tahir Dursun, Hilmi Rafet Yüncü

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In social life growing fast, not only people, but also, companies and regions are located in a struggle to provide continuity of life cycles. This struggle brings together an important competitiveness when considering environmental conditions. By emphasizing this point, being able to competitiveness notion comes out as a determiner of the struggle to exist. With the development of technology in tourism industry so as in all branches, it is seen that the companies and regions in different districts are in competitiveness and competitiveness ability is affected in assessing of marketing shares. A condition of competitiveness is to provide sustainability of all structured forms. In addition, environment and sensitiveness of environment are notions affecting directly the competitiveness ability of tourism destinations. It is claimed that providing the sustainability of environment gives competitiveness to tourism destinations. In this study, competitiveness and performances of tourism in Mediterranean countries are going to be compared by examining a variety of indexes related to the sensitiveness of environment. Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (T&TCI) (Environmental Sustainability and Natural Resources), Environmental Performance Index (EPI), Ecological Foot Print, Human Development Index (HDI), Climate Risk Index (CRI) will be used in this study. These Index data will be compared with international tourist arrivals, international tourism receives and expenses of per tourist of countries.

Keywords: ecological foot print, environmental performance index, human development index, sustainability, travel and tourism competitiveness index

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Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

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Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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Authors: Raed Fawzi Mohammed Ameen, Haider I. Alyasari, Maryam Altaweel

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Due to rapid urbanization, developing countries faced significant urban challenges that accompanied the population growth such as the inability to provide adequate housing; sustain human and community's health and wellbeing; ensure the safety in urban areas; the prevalence corruption; lack of jobs; and a shortage of investment. The destruction, degradation, and lack of planning are acute in countries such as Iraq that have suffered for more than four decades because of war and international sanctions, resulting in severe damages to the ecology sector, social utilities, housing, infrastructure, as well as the disruption of the economic sector. Many of significant urban development, housing, and regeneration projects are currently underway in different regions in Iraq, labelled as a means to reform the environmental, social, and economic sectors. However, most often with absence of public participation. Hence, there is an urgent need for understanding public perception, especially of urban socio-economic challenges, which represents a crucial concern for many planners, designers, and policy-makers in order to develop effective policies in addition to increasing their participation. The aim of this study is to investigate stakeholder perceptions of the socio-economic challenges of urban development and their priorities in the all Iraqi provinces. A nationwide questionnaire has been conducted (N = 643) across Iraq, using 19- item structured questionnaire where the stakeholder’s perspectives were collected on a 5-point Likert-type scale. The indicators were identified through deep investigation in previous studies. Principal component analysis (PCA) and statistical tests were utilized to the collected responses in order to investigate the linkage between the perceptions of socio- economic challenges and demographic factors. A high value of internal consistency and reliability of the instrument has been achieved (Cronbach’s alpha= 0.867). Five principal components have been identified, namely: economic, cultural aspects, design context, employment, security and housing demands. The item ‘safety of public places' was ranked as the most important, followed by the items 'minimize unplanned housing', and ‘provision of affordable housing’, respectively. Promote high-rise housing from the housing demands group, was ranked the lowest component between all indicators. 'Using sustainable local materials in construction' item had the second lowest mean score. The results also illustrate a link between deficiencies in the social and economic infrastructure because of the destruction and degradation caused by political instability in Iraq in the last few decades.

Keywords: public participation in development, socio-economic challenges, urban development, urban sustainability

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Authors: S. Al-Sowayan

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The impact of selective excitation of circular helical modes of graded-index fibers on its capacity is analyzed using a model for propagation delay variation with launch offset and angle that resulted from misalignment of source and fiber axis. Results show that promising technique to improve graded-index fiber capacities.

Keywords: fiber measurements, fiber optic, communications, circular helical modes

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Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, Rogers A. Akinsokeji

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For many resource-rich developing countries, fiscal policy has become a key tool used for short-run fiscal management since it is considered as playing a critical role in injecting part of resource rents into the economies. However, given its instability, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning and the efficient use of public resources difficult. In this study, the linkage between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is investigated. The main question is whether commodity price fluctuations affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in these countries. Fiscal management effectiveness is considered as the ability of fiscal policy to react countercyclically to output gaps in the economy. Fiscal policy is measured as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP and the ratio of government spending to GDP, output gap is measured as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of output growth for each country, while commodity prices are associated with each country based on its main export commodity. Given the dynamic nature of fiscal policy effects on the economy overtime, a dynamic framework is devised for the empirical analysis. The panel cointegration and error correction methodology is used to explain the relationships. In particular, the study employs the panel ECM technique to trace short-term effects of commodity prices on fiscal management and also uses the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine the long run relationships. These procedures provide sufficient estimation of the dynamic effects of commodity prices on fiscal policy. Data used cover the period 1992 to 2016 for 11 SSA countries. The study finds that the elasticity of the fiscal policy measures with respect to the output gap is significant and positive, suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among the countries in the sample. This implies that fiscal management for these countries follows the trend of economic performance. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization for these countries. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to the unstable revenue inflows due to the highly volatile nature of commodity prices in the international market. For commodity-exporting countries in SSA to improve fiscal management, therefore, fiscal planning should be largely decoupled from commodity revenues, domestic revenue bases must be improved, and longer period perspectives in fiscal policy management are the critical suggestions in this study.

Keywords: commodity prices, ECM, fiscal policy, fiscal procyclicality, fully modified OLS, sub-saharan africa

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Authors: Pallavi Kishore, Mariam Aslam

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The sharp decline in oil prices that started in 2014 affected most economies in the world either positively or negatively. In some economies, particularly the oil exporting countries, the effects were felt immediately. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC henceforth) countries are oil and gas-dependent with the largest oil reserves in the world. UAE (United Arab Emirates) has been striving to diversify away from oil and expects higher non-oil growth in 2018. These two factors, falling oil prices and the economy strategizing away from oil dependence, make a compelling case to study the financial performance of various sectors in the economy. Among other sectors, the insurance sector is widely recognized as an important indicator of the health of the economy. An expanding population, surge in construction and infrastructure, increased life expectancy, greater expenditure on automobiles and other luxury goods translate to a booming insurance sector. A slow-down of the insurance sector, on the other hand, may indicate a general slow-down in the economy. Therefore, a study on the insurance sector will help understand the general nature of the current economy. This study involves calculations and comparisons of ratios pre and post the fall in oil prices in the insurance sector in the UAE. A sample of 33 companies listed on the official stock exchanges of UAE-Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange were collected and empirical analysis employed to study the financial performance pre and post fall in oil prices. Ratios were calculated in 5 categories: Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Efficiency, and Investment. The means pre- and post-fall are compared to conclude that the profitability ratios including ROSF (Return on Shareholder Funds), ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) and NPM (Net Profit Margin) have all taken a hit. Parametric tests, including paired t-test, concludes that while the fall in profitability ratios is statistically significant, the other ratios have been quite stable in the period. The efficiency, liquidity, gearing and investment ratios have not been severely affected by the fall in oil prices. This may be due to the implementation of stronger regulatory policies and is a testimony to the diversification into the non-oil economy. The regulatory authorities can use the findings of this study to ensure transparency in revealing financial information to the public and employ policies that will help further the health of the economy. The study will also help understand which areas within the sector could benefit from more regulations.

Keywords: UAE, insurance sector, ratio analysis, oil price, profitability, liquidity, gearing, investment, efficiency

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Authors: Sarah Reker, Christiane H. Kellner

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From the perspective of people with disabilities, inequalities can also emerge from spatial segregation, the lack of social contacts or limited economic resources. In order to reduce or even eliminate these disadvantages and increase general well-being, community-based participation as well as decentralisation efforts within exclusively residential homes is essential. Therefore, the new research project “Index for participation development and quality of life for persons with disabilities”(TeLe-Index, 2014-2016), which is anchored at the Technische Universität München in Munich and at a large residential complex and service provider for persons with disabilities in the outskirts of Munich aims to assist the development of community-based living environments. People with disabilities should be able to participate in social life beyond the confines of the institution. Since a diverse society is a society in which different individual needs and wishes can emerge and be catered to, the ultimate goal of the project is to create an environment for all citizens–regardless of disability, age or ethnic background–that accommodates their daily activities and requirements. The UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which Germany also ratified, postulates the necessity of user-centered design, especially when it comes to evaluating the individual needs and wishes of all citizens. Therefore, a multidimensional approach is required. Based on this insight, the structure of the town-like center will be remodeled to open up the community to all people. This strategy should lead to more equal opportunities and open the way for a much more diverse community. Therefore, macro-level research questions were inspired by quality of life theory and were formulated as follows for different dimensions: •The user dimension: what needs and necessities can we identify? Are needs person-related? Are there any options to choose from? What type of quality of life can we identify? The economic dimension: what resources (both material and staff-related) are available in the region? (How) are they used? What costs (can) arise and what effects do they entail? •The environment dimension: what “environmental factors” such as access (mobility and absence of barriers) prove beneficial or impedimental? In this context, we have provided academic supervision and support for three projects (the construction of a new school, inclusive housing for children and teenagers with disabilities and the professionalization of employees with person-centered thinking). Since we cannot present all the issues of the umbrella-project within the conference framework, we will be focusing on one project more in-depth, namely “Outpatient Housing Options for Children and Teenagers with Disabilities”. The insights we have obtained until now will enable us to present the intermediary results of our evaluation. The most central questions pertaining to this part of the research were the following: •How have the existing network relations been designed? •What meaning (or significance) does the existing service offers and structures have for the everyday life of an external residential group? These issues underpinned the environmental analyses as well as the qualitative guided interviews and qualitative network analyses we carried out.

Keywords: decentralisation, environmental analyses, outpatient housing options for children and teenagers with disabilities, qualitative network analyses

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Authors: Dibya Jivan Pati, Kazuhisa Iki, Riken Homma

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Unlike other metro cities of India, Bhubaneswar–the capital city of Odisha, is expected to reach 1-million-mark population by now. The demands of dwelling unit requirement mostly among urban poor belonging to Economically Weaker section (EWS) and Low Income groups (LIG) is becoming a challenge due to high housing cost and rents. As a matter of fact, it’s also noted that, with increase in population, the solid waste generation also increases subsequently affecting the environment due to inefficiency in collection of waste by local government bodies. Methods of utilizing Solid Waste - especially in form of Plastic bottles, Glass bottles and Metal cans (PGM) are now widely used as an alternative material for construction of low-cost building by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in developing countries like India to help the urban poor afford a shelter. The application of disposed plastic bottle used in construction of single dwelling significantly reduces the overall cost of construction to as much as 14% compared to traditional construction material. Therefore, considering its cost-benefit result, it’s possible to provide housing to EWS and LIGs at an affordable price. In this paper, we estimated the quantity of plastic bottles generated in Bhubaneswar which further helped to estimate the possible number of single dwelling unit that can be constructed on yearly basis so as to refrain from further housing shortage. The estimation results will be practically used for planning and managing low-cost housing business by local government and NGOs.

Keywords: construction, dwelling unit, plastic bottle, solid waste generation, groups

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Authors: Jun Ha Whang

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As New York City weathers a swelling 'affordability crisis' marked by rapid transformation in land development and urban culture, much of the associated scholarly debate has turned to questions of the underlying mechanisms of gentrification. Though classically approached from the point of view of urban planning, increasingly these questions have been addressed with an eye to understanding the role of cultural capital in neighborhood valuation. This paper will examine the construction of an artist-specific affordable housing development in the Spanish Harlem neighborhood of Manhattan in order to identify and discuss several cultural parameters of gentrification. This study’s goal is not to argue that the development in question, named Art space PS 109, straightforwardly increases or decreases the rate of gentrification in Spanish Harlem, but rather to study dynamics present in the construction of Art space PS 109 as a case study considered against the broader landscape of gentrification in New York, particularly with respect to the impact of artist communities on housing supply. In the end, what Art space PS 109 most valuably offers us is a reference point for a comparative analysis of affordable housing strategies currently being pursued within municipal government. Our study of Art space PS 109 has allowed us to examine a microcosm of the city’s response and evaluate its overall strategy accordingly. As a base line, the city must aggressively pursue an affordability strategy specifically suited to the needs of each of its neighborhoods. It must also conduct this in such a way so as not to undermine its own efforts by rendering them susceptible to the exploitative involvement of real estate developers seeking to identify successive waves of trendy neighborhoods. Though Art space PS 109 offers an invaluable resource for the city’s legitimate aim of preserving its artist communities, with such a high inclusion rate of artists from outside of the community the project risks additional displacement, strongly suggesting the need for further study of the implications of sites of cultural capital for neighborhood planning.

Keywords: artist housing, displacement, east Harlem, urban planning

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Yuliani Aisyah, Sri Haryani, Novi Safriani

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Nutmeg oil is one of the essential oils that have the ability as an antibacterial so it potentially uses to inhibit the growth of undesirable microbes in food. However, the essential oil that has low solubility in water, high volatile content, and strong aroma properties is difficult to apply in to foodstuffs. Therefore, the oil-in-water nanoemulsion system was used in this research. Gelatin, lecithin and tween 80 with 10%, 20%, 30% concentrations have been examined for the preparation of nutmeg oil nanoemulsions. The physicochemical properties and stability of nutmeg oil nanoemulsion were analyzed on viscosity, creaming index, emulsifying activity, droplet size, and polydispersity index. The results showed that the type and concentration stabilizer had a significant effect on viscosity, creaming index, droplet size and polydispersity index (P ≤ 0,01). The nanoemulsions stabilized with tween 80 had the best stability because the creaming index value was 0%, the emulsifying activity value was 100%, the droplet size was small (79 nm) and the polydispersity index was low (0.10) compared to the nanoemulsions stabilized with gelatin and lecithin. In brief, Tween 80 is strongly recommended to be used for stabilizing nutmeg oil nanoemulsions.

Keywords: nanoemulsion, nutmeg oil, stabilizer, stability

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Authors: Joseph Siani

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Over the last decades, dissatisfaction with global indicators of economic performance, such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, has shifted the attention to what is now referred to as multidimensional poverty. In this framework, poverty goes beyond income to incorporate aspects of well-being not captured by income measures alone. This paper applies the totally fuzzy approach to estimate the fuzzy index of poverty (FIP) in fourteen Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data and explores whether pictures created by the standard headcount ratio at $1.90 a day and the fuzzy index of poverty tell a similar story. The results suggest that there is indeed considerable mismatch between poverty headcount and the fuzzy index of multidimensional poverty, meaning that the majority of the most deprived people (as identified by the fuzzy index of multidimensional poverty) would not be identified by the poverty headcount ratio. Moreover, we find that poverty is distributed differently by colonial heritage (language). In particular, the most deprived countries in SSA are French-speaking.

Keywords: fuzzy set approach, multidimensional poverty, poverty headcount, overlap, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine

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Following a long inflationary period from the post-war era to the mid-1980s (+10.1% annually), France went through a moderate inflation period between 1986 and 2001 (+2.1% annually) and even lower inflation between 2002 and 2016 (+1.4% annually). In 2022, inflation in France increased rapidly and reached 4.5% over one year in March, according to INSEE estimates. Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. Considering a mixed-asset portfolio composed of housing assets (residential real estate in 150 Grand Paris communes) as well as financial assets, and using both correlation and regression analysis, results confirm the attribute of the direct housing investment as an inflation hedge especially particularly against its unexpected component. Further, cash and bonds were found to provide respectively a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant positive hedge against expected inflation.

Keywords: direct housing, inflation, hedging ability, optimal portfolio, Grand Paris metropolis

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Nachawit Tikul

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This study aimed to determine low-income housing adaptations for flooding, which causes living problems and housing damage, and the results from improvement. Three low-income settlements in Chiang Mai which experienced different flood types, i.e. flash floods in Samukeepattana, drainage floods in Bansanku, and river floods in Kampangam, were chosen for the study. Almost all of the residents improved their houses to protect the property from flood damage by changing building materials to flood damage resistant materials for walls, floors, and other parts of the structure that were below the base of annual flood elevation. They could only build some parts of their own homes, so hiring skilled workers or contractors was still important. Building materials which have no need for any special tools and are easy to access and use for construction, as well as low cost, are selected for construction. The residents in the three slums faced living problems for only a short time and were able to cope with them. This may be due to the location of the three slums near the city where assistance is readily available. But the housing and the existence in the slums can endure only the regular floods and residence still have problems in unusual floods, which have been experienced 1-2 times during the past 10 years. The residents accept the need for evacuations and prepare for them. When faced with extreme floods, residence have evacuated to the nearest safe place such as schools and public building, and come back to repair the houses after the flood. These are the distinguishing characteristics of low-income living which can withstand serious situations due to the simple lifestyle. Therefore, preparation of living areas for use during severe floods and encouraging production of affordable flood resistant materials should be areas of concern when formulating disaster assistance policies for low income people.

Keywords: flooding, low-income settlement, housing, adaptation

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Authors: Elżbieta Antczak

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Cities offer important opportunities for economic development and for expanding access to basic services, including health care and education, for large numbers of people. Moreover, green areas (as an integral part of sustainable urban development) present a major opportunity for improving urban environments, quality of lives and livelihoods. This paper examines, using spatial concentration and spatial taxonomic measures, regional diversification of greenery in the cities of Poland. The analysis includes location quotients, Lorenz curve, Locational Gini Index, and the synthetic index of greenery and spatial statistics tools: (1) To verify the occurrence of strong concentration or dispersion of the phenomenon in time and space depending on the variable category, and, (2) To study if the level of greenery depends on the spatial autocorrelation. The data includes the greatest Polish cities, categories of the urban greenery (parks, lawns, street greenery, and green areas on housing estates, cemeteries, and forests) and the time span 2004-2015. According to the obtained estimations, most of cites in Poland are already taking measures to become greener. However, in the country there are still many barriers to well-balanced urban greenery development (e.g. uncontrolled urban sprawl, poor management as well as lack of spatial urban planning systems).

Keywords: greenery, urban areas, regional spatial diversification and concentration, spatial taxonomic measure

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Authors: Ziyu Diao, Yanyan Zhang, Zhentao Liu, Ruidong Yan

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The update frequency of wear profile in main bearing wear prognosis of internal combustion engine plays an important role in the calculation efficiency and accuracy. In order to investigate the appropriate cycle index of the simplified working condition of wear simulation, the main bearing-crankshaft journal friction pair of a diesel engine in service was studied in this paper. The method of multi-body dynamics simulation was used, and the wear prognosis model of the main bearing was established. Several groups of cycle indexes were set up for the wear calculation, and the maximum wear depth and wear profile were compared and analyzed. The results showed that when the cycle index reaches 3, the maximum deviation rate of the maximum wear depth is about 2.8%, and the maximum deviation rate comes to 1.6% when the cycle index reaches 5. This study provides guidance and suggestions for the optimization of wear prognosis by selecting appropriate value of cycle index according to the requirement of calculation cost and accuracy of the simulation work.

Keywords: cycle index, deviation rate, wear calculation, wear profile

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Authors: Leslie M. Mullins

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In the face of dramatically shifting demographic trends and macroeconomic pressures on affordable housing in high-cost cities, municipalities and developers have been forced to develop new models of sustainable development that integrates elements of substantial rehabilitation and new construction while controlling for relocation and mass displacement. Community development partners in the San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California are starting to prioritize anti-displacement strategies when rehabilitating severely neglected public housing developments. This study explored the community-driven efforts to transform four dilapidated public housing sites (N=2,600 households) into thriving mixed-income housing communities. Eight interviews were conducted with frontline workers (property managers and service providers), who directly worked with residents throughout critical stages of the relocation and leasing process. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed by a systematic procedure for qualitative analysis to identify key themes on the topics of interest. Also, an extensive literature analysis was conducted to determine promising practices throughout the industry. This study highlighted that resident’s emotional attachment to their homes (regardless of the deteriorating conditions of their unit) could both a) impede the relocation process and substantially impact the budget and timeline, while b) simultaneously providing a basis for an enhanced sense of belonging and community cohesion. This phenomenon often includes the welcoming of new residents and cultures. Resident centered workshops, healing centered rituals, and extensive 'hands-on' guidance was highlighted as promising practices that resulted in residential retention rates that were two to three times the national average and positively impacted the overall project’s budget and timeline.

Keywords: anti-displacement strategies, community based practices, community cohesion, cultural preservation, healing-centered, public housing, relocation, trauma-informed

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Authors: T. Hopkin, S. Lu, P. Rogers, M. Sexton

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Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Keywords: defects, new homes, housing association, organizational learning

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Authors: Siti Khairunniza-Bejo, Yusnida Yusoff, Nik Salwani Nik Yusoff, Idris Abu Seman, Mohamad Izzuddin Anuar

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Most of the oil palm plantations have been threatened by Basal Stem Rot (BSR) disease which causes serious economic impact. This study was conducted to identify the healthy and BSR-infected oil palm tree using thirteen color indices. Multispectral and thermal camera was used to capture 216 images of the leaves taken from frond number 1, 9 and 17. Indices of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), red (R), green (G), blue (B), near infrared (NIR), green – blue (GB), green/blue (G/B), green – red (GR), green/red (G/R), hue (H), saturation (S), intensity (I) and thermal index (T) were used. From this study, it can be concluded that G index taken from frond number 9 is the best index to differentiate between the healthy and BSR-infected oil palm trees. It not only gave high value of correlation coefficient (R=-0.962), but also high value of separation between healthy and BSR-infected oil palm tree. Furthermore, power and S model developed using G index gave the highest R2 value which is 0.985.

Keywords: oil palm, image processing, disease, leaves

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Authors: Lu Anne A. Godinez, May Claudine I. Gador, Preacious G. Gumolon, Louiechi Von R. Mendoza, Neil Bryan N. Moninio

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Gender equality and women empowerment is the third of eight Millennium Development Goals. Understanding corruption’s linkages to gender equality issues and how it impacts women’s empowerment is part of the broader process of advancing women’s rights and understanding the gender dimensions of democratic governance. Taking a long view of political (corruption index) and the social (women empowerment) dimension — a view from 2015 to 2030, a context based forecast was conducted to forecast the ASEAN corruption index in the next 15 years, answering the question: “Does women political involvement decrease corruption rate index of ASEAN countries in the next 15 years?” The study have established that there will be an increase women political involvement in the ASEAN countries in the next 15 years that will cause a drop on corruption rate index. There will be a significant decline on corruption rate index in 2030. This change entails reform not only in the political aspect of progress, but to the social aspect as well. Finally, the political aspect is increasing at a constant rate however a double or triple increase of the social aspect is seen to be the key solution for corruption.

Keywords: women, women political involvement, corruption, gender equity index, economic participation, educational attainment, political empowerment, control of corruption, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability government effectiveness, political stability and corruption perception index

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Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut

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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.

Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 430