Search results for: hourly load demand

Authors: M. Ali, K. Alam, E. Ohioma

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This paper presents a numerical investigation on the behavior of fiber reinforced polymer composite tubes (FRP) under thermomechanical coupled loading using finite element software ABAQUS and a special add-on subroutine, CZone. Three cases were explored; pure mechanical loading, pure thermal loading, and coupled thermomechanical loading. The failure index (Tsai-Wu) under all three loading cases was assessed for all plies in the tube walls. The simulation results under pure mechanical loading showed that composite tube failed at a tensile load of 3.1 kN. However, with the superposition of thermal load on mechanical load on the composite tube, the failure index of the previously failed plies in tube walls reduced significantly causing the tube to fail at 6 kN. This showed 93% improvement in the load carrying capacity of the composite tube in present study. The increase in load carrying capacity was attributed to the stress effects of the coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) on the laminate as well as the inter-lamina stresses induced due to the composite stack layup.

Keywords: thermal, mechanical, composites, square tubes

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

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The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)

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Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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Authors: Nakache Radouane, M. Boukelloul, M. Fredj

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Method room and pillar sizes are key factors for safe mining and their recovery in open-stop mining. This method is advantageous due to its simplicity and requirement of little information to be used. It is probably the most representative method among the total load approach methods although it also remains a safe design method. Using a finite element software (PLAXIS 3D), analyses were carried out with an elasto-plastic model and comparisons were made with methods based on the total load approach. The results were presented as the optimization for improving the ore recovery rate while maintaining a safe working environment.

Keywords: room and pillar, mining, total load approach, elasto-plastic

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Authors: Rachel Ashwell, Sally Millett

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Introduction: Adequate post-operative pain relief is a key priority in the delivery of caesarean sections. This improves patient experience, reduces morbidity and enables optimal mother-infant interaction. Recommendations outlined in the NICE guidelines for caesarean section (CS) include offering peri-operative intrathecal/epidural diamorphine and post-operative opioid analgesics; offering non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) unless contraindicated and taking hourly observations for 12 hours following intrathecal diamorphine. Method: This audit assessed the provision of post-CS analgesia in 29 women over a two-week period. Indicators used were the use of intrathecal/epidural opioids, use of post-operative opioids and NSAIDs, frequency of observations and patient satisfaction with pain management on post-operative days 1 and 2. Results: All women received intrathecal/epidural diamorphine, 97% were prescribed post-operative opioids and all were prescribed NSAIDs unless contraindicated. Hourly observations were not maintained for 12 hours following intrathecal diamorphine. 97% of women were satisfied with their pain management on post-operative day 1 whereas only 75% were satisfied on day 2. Discussion: This service meets the proposed standards for the provision of post-operative analgesia, achieving high levels of patient satisfaction 1 day after CS. However, patient satisfaction levels are significantly lower on post-operative day 2, which may be due to reduced frequency of observations. The lack of an official audit standard for patient satisfaction on postoperative day 2 may result in reduced incentive to prioritise pain management at this stage.

Keywords: Caesarean section, analgesia, postoperative care, patient satisfaction

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Authors: Ahmed Elsayed, Andrew Shea, Nicolas Kelly, John Allison

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In northern European climates, domestic space heating and hot water represents a significant proportion of total primary total primary energy use and meeting these demands from a national electricity grid network supplied by renewable energy sources provides an opportunity for a significant reduction in EU CO₂ emissions. However, in order to adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation and to avoid co-incident peak electricity usage from consumers that may exceed current capacity, the demand for heat must be decoupled from its generation. Storage of heat within the fabric of dwellings for use some hours, or days, later provides a route to complete decoupling of demand from supply and facilitates the greatly increased use of renewable energy generation into a local or national electricity network. The integration of thermal energy storage into the building fabric for retrieval at a later time requires much evaluation of the many competing thermal, physical, and practical considerations such as the profile and magnitude of heat demand, the duration of storage, charging and discharging rate, storage media, space allocation, etc. In this paper, the authors report investigations of thermal storage in building fabric using concrete material and present an evaluation of several factors that impact upon performance including heating pipe layout, heating fluid flow velocity, storage geometry, thermo-physical material properties, and also present an investigation of alternative storage materials and alternative heat transfer fluids. Reducing the heating pipe spacing from 200 mm to 100 mm enhances the stored energy by 25% and high-performance Vacuum Insulation results in heat loss flux of less than 3 W/m², compared to 22 W/m² for the more conventional EPS insulation. Dense concrete achieved the greatest storage capacity, relative to medium and light-weight alternatives, although a material thickness of 100 mm required more than 5 hours to charge fully. Layers of 25 mm and 50 mm thickness can be charged in 2 hours, or less, facilitating a fast response that could, aggregated across multiple dwellings, provide significant and valuable reduction in demand from grid-generated electricity in expected periods of high demand and potentially eliminate the need for additional new generating capacity from conventional sources such as gas, coal, or nuclear.

Keywords: fabric integrated thermal storage, FITS, demand side management, energy storage, load shifting, renewable energy integration

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Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Masoud Ghodrati, Ahmad Fahimifar

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Pervious concrete combines considerable permeability with adequate strength, which makes it very beneficial in pavement construction and also in ground improvement projects. In this paper, a single pervious concrete pile subjected to vertical and lateral loading is analysed using a verified three dimensional finite element code. A parametric study was carried out in order to investigate load bearing capacity of a single unreinforced pervious concrete pile in saturated soft soil and also gain insight into the failure mechanism of this rather new soil improvement technique. The results show that concrete damaged plasticity constitutive model can perfectly simulate the highly brittle nature of the pervious concrete material and considering the computed vertical and horizontal load bearing capacities, some suggestions have been made for ground improvement projects.

Keywords: concrete damaged plasticity, ground improvement, load-bearing capacity, pervious concrete pile

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Authors: H. Abaal, R. Skouri

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A power flow analysis is a steady-state study of power grid. The goal of power flow analysis is to determine the voltages, currents, and real and reactive power flows in a system under a given load conditions. In this paper, the load flow analysis program by Newton Raphson polar coordinates Method is developed. The effectiveness of the developed program is evaluated through a simple 5-IEEE test system bus by simulations using MATLAB.

Keywords: power flow analysis, Newton Raphson polar coordinates method

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Authors: R. T. Aggangan

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Woodfuels continue to be a major component of the energy supply mix of the Philippines due to increasing demand for energy that are not adequately met by decreasing supply and increasing prices of fuel oil such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene. The Development Academy of the Philippines projects the demand of woodfuels in 2016 as 28.3 million metric tons in the household sector and about 105.4 million metric tons combined supply potentials of both forest and non-forest lands. However, the Revised Master Plan for Forestry Development projects a demand of about 50 million cu meters of fuelwood in 2016 but the capability to supply from local sources is only about 28 million cu meters indicating a 44 % deficiency. Household demand constitutes 82% while industries demand is 18%. Domestic household demand for energy is for cooking needs while the industrial demand is for steam power generation, curing barns of tobacco: brick, ceramics and pot making; bakery; lime production; and small scale food processing. Factors that favour increased use of wood-based energy include the relatively low prices (increasing oil-based fuel prices), availability of efficient wood-based energy utilization technology, increasing supply, and increasing population that cannot afford conventional fuels. Moreover, innovations in combustion technology and cogeneration of heat and power from biomass for modern applications favour biomass energy development. This paper recommends policies and strategic directions for the development of the woodfuel industry with the twin goals of sustainably supplying the energy requirements of households and industry.

Keywords: biomass energy development, fuelwood, households and industry, innovations in combustion technology, supply and demand

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Authors: Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy Elsayed Abouzeid, Tomonobu Senjyu

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A novel multi-objective park and ride control approach is presented in this research. Park and ride will encourage the owners of the vehicles to leave their cars in the nearest points (on the edges of the crowded cities) and use public transportation facilities (train, bus, metro, or mon-rail) to reach their work inside the crowded city. The proposed control scheme is used to design electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) to charge 1000 electric vehicles (EV) during their owners' work time. Cairo, Egypt is used as a case study. Photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) are used to meet the EVCS demand. Two multi-objective optimization techniques (MOGA and epsilon-MOGA) are utilized to get the optimal sizes of PV and BESS so as to meet the load demand and minimize the total life cycle cost. Detailed analysis and comparison are held to investigate the performance of the proposed control scheme using MATLAB.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System, Electric Vehicle, Park and Ride, Photovoltaic, Multi-objective

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Authors: Ali Hamad, Ibrahim Al-Drous, Saleh Al-Jufout

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This paper presents a case study of using STATCOM to enhance the performance of Al-Qatraneh 33-kV transmission line. The location of the STATCOM was identified maintaining minimum voltage drops at the 110 load nodes. The transmission line and the 110 load nodes have been modeled by MATLAB/Simulink. The suggested STATCOM and its location will increase the transmission capability of this transmission line and overcome the overload expected in the year 2020. The annual percentage loading rise has been considered as 14%. A graphical representation of the line voltages and the voltage drops at different load nodes has been illustrated.

Keywords: FACTS, MATLAB, STATCOM, transmission line, voltage drop

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Authors: A. Al-Rifaie, Z. W. Guan, S. W. Jones

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Beam to column connection can be considered as the most important structural part that affects the response of buildings to progressive collapse. However, many studies were conducted to investigate the beam to column connection under accidental loads such as fire, blast and impact load to investigate the connection response. The study is a part of a PhD plan to investigate different types of connections under lateral impact load. The conventional test setups, such as cruciform setup, were designed to apply shear forces and bending moment on the connection, whilst, in the lateral impact case, the connection is subjected to combined tension and moment. Hence, a review is presented to introduce the previous test setup that is used to investigate the connection behaviour. Then, the design and fabrication of the novel test setup is presented. Finally, some trial test results to investigate the efficiency of the proposed setup are discussed. The final results indicate that the setup was efficient in terms of the simplicity and strength.

Keywords: connections, impact load, drop hammer, testing methods

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Megha Jain, K. K. Pathak

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In sub-tropical humid climates, it is estimated most of the urban peak load of energy consumption is used to satisfy air-conditioning or air-coolers cooling demand in summer time. As the urbanization rate in developing nation – like the case in India is rising rapidly, the pressure placed on energy resources to satisfy inhabitants’ indoor comfort requirements is consequently increasing too. This paper introduces passive cooling through roof as a means of reducing energy cooling loads for satisfying human comfort requirements in a sub-tropical climate. Experiments were performed by applying different insulators which are locally available solar reflective materials to insulate the roofs of five rooms of 4 case buildings; three rooms having RCC (Reinforced Cement Concrete) roof and two having Asbestos sheet roof of existing buildings. The results are verified by computer simulation using Computational Fluid Dynamics tools with FLUENT software. The result of using solar reflective paint with high albedo coating shows a fall of 4.8⁰C in peak hours and saves 303 kWh considering energy load with air conditioner during the summer season in comparison to non insulated flat roof energy load of residential buildings in Bhopal. An optimum solution of insulator for both types of roofs is presented. It is recommended that the selected cool roof solution be combined with insulation on other elements of envelope, to increase the indoor thermal comfort. The application is intended for low cost residential buildings in composite and warm climate like Bhopal.

Keywords: cool roof, computational fluid dynamics, energy loads, insulators, passive cooling, subtropical climate, thermal performance

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Eugene Y. C. Wong, Daniel Y. W. Mo, Cosmo T. Y. Ng, Jessica K. Y. Chan, Leith K. Y. Chan, Henry Y. K. Lau

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The real-time planning visualisation, precise allocation and loading optimisation in air cargo load planning operations are increasingly important as more considerations are needed on dangerous cargo loading, locations of lithium batteries, weight declaration and limited aircraft capacity. The planning of the unit load devices (ULD) can often be carried out only in a limited number of hours before flight departure. A dynamic air cargo load planning system is proposed with the optimisation of cargo load plan and visualisation of planning results in virtual reality systems. The system aims to optimise the cargo load planning and visualise the simulated loading planning decision on air cargo terminal operations. Adopting simulation tools, Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE) and virtual reality technologies, the results of planning with reference to weight and balance, Unit Load Device (ULD) dimensions, gateway, cargo nature and aircraft capacity are optimised and presented. The virtual reality system facilities planning, operations, education and training. Staff in terminals are usually trained in a traditional push-approach demonstration with enormous manual paperwork. With the support of newly customized immersive visualization environment, users can master the complex air cargo load planning techniques in a problem based training with the instant result being immersively visualised. The virtual reality system is developed with three-dimensional (3D) projectors, screens, workstations, truss system, 3D glasses, and demonstration platform and software. The content will be focused on the cargo planning and loading operations in an air cargo terminal. The system can assist decision-making process during cargo load planning in the complex operations of air cargo terminal operations. The processes of cargo loading, cargo build-up, security screening, and system monitoring can be further visualised. Scenarios are designed to support and demonstrate the daily operations of the air cargo terminal, including dangerous goods, pets and animals, and some special cargos.

Keywords: air cargo load planning, optimisation, virtual reality, weight and balance, unit load device

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Authors: Chhaya Sharma, Dushyant Kumar

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The present work deals with the treatment of wastewater generated by paper industry by using aluminium as anode material. The quantitative and qualitative analyses of chloropenolics have been carried out by using primary clarifier effluent with the help of gas chromatography mass spectrometry. Sixteen chlorophenolics compounds have been identified and estimated. Results indicated that among 16 identified compounds, 7 are 100% removed and overall 66% reduction in chorophenolics compounds have been detected. Moreover, during the treatment, the biodegradability index of wastewater significantly increases, along with 70 % reduction in chemical oxygen demand and 99 % in color.

Keywords: aluminium anode, chlorophenolics, electrocoagulation, pollution load, wastewater

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Authors: Dodi Ikhsanshaleh

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When subjected to dynamic load, foundation oscillates in the way that depends on the soil behaviour, the geometry and inertia of the foundation and the dynamic exctation. The practical guideline to analysis block-type foundation excitated by dynamic load from vibrating machine is presented. The analysis use Lumped Mass Parameter Method to express dynamic properties such as stiffness and damping of soil. The numerical examples are performed on design block-type foundation supporting gas turbine compressor which is important equipment package in gas processing plant

Keywords: block foundation, dynamic load, lumped mass parameter

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Authors: Yeo Kyeong Lee, Ji Yeon Kang, Eun Mi Ryu, Hee Sun Kim, Yeong Soo Shin

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The objective of this paper is an investigation of the effects of the thickness and axial loading during a fire test on the load-bearing capacity of a fire-damaged normal-strength concrete wall. Two factors are attributed to the temperature distributions in the concrete members and are mainly obtained through numerous experiments. Toward this goal, three wall specimens of different thicknesses are heated for 2 h according to the ISO-standard heating curve, and the temperature distributions through the thicknesses are measured using thermocouples. In addition, two wall specimens are heated for 2 h while simultaneously being subjected to a constant axial loading at their top sections. The test results show that the temperature distribution during the fire test depends on wall thickness and axial load during the fire test. After the fire tests, the specimens are cured for one month, followed by the loading testing. The heated specimens are compared with three unheated specimens to investigate the residual load-bearing capacities. The fire-damaged walls show a minor difference of the load-bearing capacity regarding the axial loading, whereas a significant difference became evident regarding the wall thickness. To validate the experiment results, finite element models are generated for which the material properties that are obtained for the experiment are subject to elevated temperatures, and the analytical results show sound agreements with the experiment results. The analytical method based on validated thought experimental results is applied to generate the fire-damaged walls with 2,800 mm high considering the buckling effect: typical story height of residual buildings in Korea. The models for structural analyses generated to deformation shape after thermal analysis. The load-bearing capacity of the fire-damaged walls with pin supports at both ends does not significantly depend on the wall thickness, the reason for it is restraint of pinned ends. The difference of the load-bearing capacity of fire-damaged walls as axial load during the fire is within approximately 5 %.

Keywords: normal-strength concrete wall, wall thickness, axial-load ratio, slenderness ratio, fire test, residual strength, finite element analysis

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Authors: Edwin Lerch, Dirk Audring, Cuong Nguyen Mau, Duc Ninh Nguyen, The Cuong Nguyen, The Van Nguyen

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The National Load Dispatch Centre of Electricity Vietnam (EVNNLDC) and Siemens PTI investigated the stability of the electrical 500/220 kV transportation system of Vietnam. The general scope of the investigations is improving the stability of the Vietnam power system and giving the EVNNLDC staff the capability to decide how to deal with expected stability challenges in the future, which are related to the very fast growth of the system. Rapid system growth leads to a very high demand of power transmission from North to South. This was investigated by stability studies of interconnected power system with neighboring countries. These investigations are performed in close cooperation and coordination with the EVNNLDC project team. This important project includes data collection, measurement, model validation and investigation of relevant stability phenomena as well as training of the EVNNLDC staff. Generally, the power system of Vietnam has good voltage and dynamic stability. The main problems are related to the longitudinal system with more power generation in the North and Center, especially hydro power, and load centers in the South of Vietnam. Faults on the power transmission system from North to South risks the stability of the entire system due to a high power transfer from North to South and high loading of the 500 kV backbone. An additional problem is the weak connection to Cambodia power system which leads to interarea oscillations mode. Therefore, strengthening the power transfer capability by new 500kV lines or HVDC connection and balancing the power generation across the country will solve many challenges. Other countermeasures, such as wide area load shedding, PSS tuning and correct SVC placement will improve and stabilize the power system as well. Primary frequency reserve should be increased.

Keywords: dynamic power transmission system studies, blackout prevention, power system interconnection, stability

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Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

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The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

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Authors: Youn-Hwan Kim, Jae-Won Moon, Hae-Joong Kim

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This paper introduces the study on the method of accelerated life test to electrical rotating system. In recent years, as well as efficiency for motors and generators, there is a growing need for research on the life expectancy. It is considered impossible to calculate the acceleration coefficient by increasing the rotational load or temperature load as the acceleration stress in the motor system because the temperature of the copper exceeds the wire thermal class rating. In this paper, the accelerated life test methods of the electrical rotating system are classified according to the application. This paper describes the development of the test procedure for the highly accelerated life test (HALT) of the 100kW permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) of electric vehicle. Finally, it explains how to select acceleration load for vibration, temperature, bearing load, etc. for accelerated life test.

Keywords: acceleration coefficient, electric vehicle motor, HALT, life expectancy, vibration

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Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

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This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

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Authors: B. Mavhuru, N. S. Nethengwe

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Human activities on land degradation have triggered several environmental problems especially in rural areas that are underdeveloped. The main aim of this study is to analyze the contribution of different land uses to gully development and sediment load on the Nzhelele River Valley in the Limpopo Province. Data was collected using different methods such as observation, field data techniques and experiments. Satellite digital images, topographic maps, aerial photographs and the sediment load static model also assisted in determining how land use affects gully development and sediment load. For data analysis, the researcher used the following methods: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and statistical correlation methods. The results of the research illustrate that high land use activities create negative changes especially in areas that are highly fragile and vulnerable. Distinct impact on land use change was observed within settlement area (9.6 %) within a period of 5 years. High correlation between soil organic matter and soil moisture (R=0.96) was observed. Furthermore, a significant variation (p ≤ 0.6) between the soil organic matter and soil moisture was also observed. A very significant variation (p ≤ 0.003) was observed in bulk density and extreme significant variations (p ≤ 0.0001) were observed in organic matter and soil particle size. The sand mining and agricultural activities has contributed significantly to the amount of sediment load in the Nzhelele River. A high significant amount of total suspended sediment (55.3 %) and bed load (53.8 %) was observed within the agricultural area. The connection which associates the development of gullies to various land use activities determines the amount of sediment load. These results are consistent with other previous research and suggest that land use activities are likely to exacerbate the development of gullies and sediment load in the Nzhelele River Valley.

Keywords: drainage basin, geomorphological processes, gully development, land degradation, riparian land use and sediment load

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Authors: Farzad Hosseini Hossein Abadi, Cristina Prieto Sierra, Cesar Álvarez Díaz

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Predicting streamflow accurately in flashy catchments prone to floods is a major research and operational challenge in hydrological modeling. Recent advancements in deep learning, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have shown to be promising in achieving accurate hydrological predictions at daily and hourly time scales. In this work, a multi-timescale LSTM (MTS-LSTM) network was applied to the context of regional hydrological predictions at an hourly time scale in flashy catchments. The case study includes 40 catchments allocated in the Basque Country, north of Spain. We explore the impact of hyperparameters on the performance of streamflow predictions given by regional deep learning models through systematic hyperparameter tuning - where optimal regional values for different catchments are identified. The results show that predictions are highly accurate, with Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) and Kling-Gupta (KGE) metrics values as high as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively. A principal component analysis reveals that a hyperparameter related to the length of the input sequence contributes most significantly to the prediction performance. The findings suggest that input sequence lengths have a crucial impact on the model prediction performance. Moreover, employing catchment-scale analysis reveals distinct sequence lengths for individual basins, highlighting the necessity of customizing this hyperparameter based on each catchment’s characteristics. This aligns with well known “uniqueness of the place” paradigm. In prior research, tuning the length of the input sequence of LSTMs has received limited focus in the field of streamflow prediction. Initially it was set to 365 days to capture a full annual water cycle. Later, performing limited systematic hyper-tuning using grid search, revealed a modification to 270 days. However, despite the significance of this hyperparameter in hydrological predictions, usually studies have overlooked its tuning and fixed it to 365 days. This study, employing a simultaneous systematic hyperparameter tuning approach, emphasizes the critical role of input sequence length as an influential hyperparameter in configuring LSTMs for regional streamflow prediction. Proper tuning of this hyperparameter is essential for achieving accurate hourly predictions using deep learning models.

Keywords: LSTMs, streamflow, hyperparameters, hydrology

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Authors: Miguel A. Orellana, Sonia E. Ruiz, Juan Bojórquez

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Optimal load factors (dead, live and seismic) used for the design of buildings may be different, depending of the seismic ground motion characteristics to which they are subjected, which are closely related to the type of soil conditions where the structures are located. The influence of the type of soil on those load factors, is analyzed in the present study. A methodology that is useful for establishing optimal load factors that minimize the cost over the life cycle of the structure is employed; and as a restriction, it is established that the probability of structural failure must be less than or equal to a prescribed value. The life-cycle cost model used here includes different types of costs. The optimization methodology is applied to two groups of reinforced concrete buildings. One set (consisting on 4-, 7-, and 10-story buildings) is located on firm ground (with a dominant period Ts=0.5 s) and the other (consisting on 6-, 12-, and 16-story buildings) on soft soil (Ts=1.5 s) of Mexico City. Each group of buildings is designed using different combinations of load factors. The statistics of the maximums inter-story drifts (associated with the structural capacity) are found by means of incremental dynamic analyses. The buildings located on firm zone are analyzed under the action of 10 strong seismic records, and those on soft zone, under 13 strong ground motions. All the motions correspond to seismic subduction events with magnitudes M=6.9. Then, the structural damage and the expected total costs, corresponding to each group of buildings, are estimated. It is concluded that the optimal load factors combination is different for the design of buildings located on firm ground than that for buildings located on soft soil.

Keywords: life-cycle cost, optimal load factors, reinforced concrete buildings, total costs, type of soil

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Authors: Chengli Liu, C. K. M. Lee

Abstract:

The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.

Keywords: bias, competing newsvendor, Nash equilibrium, overestimation

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Authors: Ahmad Daryani, Yousef Dadimoghaddam, Mehdi Sharif, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Baghar Hashemi

Abstract:

Background: Excretory-secretory antigens (ESAs) of Toxoplasma gondii are one of the candidates for immunization against toxoplasmosis. For evaluation of immunization, we determined the kinetics of the distribution of Toxoplasma and parasite load in different tissues of mice immunized by ESAs. Methods: In this experimental study, 36 mice in case (n= 18) and control (n= 18) groups were immunized with ESAs and PBS, respectively. After 2 weeks, mice were challenged intraperitoneally with Toxoplasma virulent RH strain. Blood and different tissues (brain, spleen, liver, heart, kidney, and muscle) were collected daily after challenge (1, 2, 3 and last day before death). Parasite load was calculated using Real time QPCR targeted at the B1 gene. Results: ESAs as vaccine in different tissues showed various effects. However, infected mice which received the vaccine in comparison with control group, displayed a drastically decreasing in parasite burden, in their blood and tissues (P= 0.000). Conclusion: These results indicated that ESAs with reduction of parasite load in different tissues of host could be evaluable candidate for the development of immunization strategies against toxoplasmosis.

Keywords: parasitic load, murine toxoplasmosis, immunization, excretory-secretory antigens, real time QPCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Cathy SW. Chow, Kristina Shin, Faming Wang, B. C. L. So

Abstract:

During some dynamic giant puppet performances, an ergonomically designed load carrier system is necessary for the puppeteers to carry a giant puppet body’s heavy load with minimum muscle stress. A load carrier (i.e. prototype) was designed with two small wheels on the foot; and a hybrid spring device on the knee in order to assist the sliding and knee bending movements respectively. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of three load carriers including two other commercially available load mounting systems, Tepex and SuitX, and the prototype. Ten male participants were recruited for the experiment. Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to collect the participants’ muscle activities during forward moving and bouncing and with and without load of 11.1 kg that was 60 cm above the shoulder. Five bilateral muscles including the lumbar erector spinae (LES), rectus femoris (RF), bicep femoris (BF), tibialis anterior (TA), and gastrocnemius (GM) were selected for data collection. During forward moving task, the sEMG data showed smallest muscle activities by Tepex harness which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the prototype and SuitX which were significantly higher on left LES 68.99% and 64.99%, right LES 26.57% and 82.45%; left RF 87.71% and 47.61%, right RF 143.57% and 24.28%; left BF 80.21% and 22.23%, right BF 96.02% and 21.83%; right TA 6.32% and 4.47%; left GM 5.89% and 12.35% respectively. The result above reflected mobility was highly restricted by tested exoskeleton devices. On the other hand, the sEMG data from bouncing task showed the smallest muscle activities by prototype which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the Tepex harness and SuitX which were significantly lower on lLES 6.65% and 104.93, rLES 23.56% and 92.19%; lBF 33.21% and 93.26% and rBF 24.70% and 81.16%; lTA 46.51% and 191.02%; rTA 12.75% and 125.76%; IGM 31.54% and 68.36%; rGM 95.95% and 96.43% respectively.

Keywords: exoskeleton, giant puppet performers, load carriage system, surface electromyography

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Authors: Zia R. Tahir, P. Mandal

Abstract:

This paper presents the details of a numerical study of buckling and post buckling behaviour of laminated carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) thin-walled cylindrical shell under axial compression using asymmetric meshing technique (AMT) by ABAQUS. AMT is considered to be a new perturbation method to introduce disturbance without changing geometry, boundary conditions or loading conditions. Asymmetric meshing affects both predicted buckling load and buckling mode shapes. Cylindrical shell having lay-up orientation [0°/+45°/-45°/0°] with radius to thickness ratio (R/t) equal to 265 and length to radius ratio (L/R) equal to 1.5 is analysed numerically. A series of numerical simulations (experiments) are carried out with symmetric and asymmetric meshing to study the effect of asymmetric meshing on predicted buckling behaviour. Asymmetric meshing technique is employed in both axial direction and circumferential direction separately using two different methods, first by changing the shell element size and varying the total number elements, and second by varying the shell element size and keeping total number of elements constant. The results of linear analysis (Eigenvalue analysis) and non-linear analysis (Riks analysis) using symmetric meshing agree well with analytical results. The results of numerical analysis are presented in form of non-dimensional load factor, which is the ratio of buckling load using asymmetric meshing technique to buckling load using symmetric meshing technique. Using AMT, load factor has about 2% variation for linear eigenvalue analysis and about 2% variation for non-linear Riks analysis. The behaviour of load end-shortening curve for pre-buckling is same for both symmetric and asymmetric meshing but for asymmetric meshing curve behaviour in post-buckling becomes extraordinarily complex. The major conclusions are: different methods of AMT have small influence on predicted buckling load and significant influence on load displacement curve behaviour in post buckling; AMT in axial direction and AMT in circumferential direction have different influence on buckling load and load displacement curve in post-buckling.

Keywords: CFRP composite cylindrical shell, asymmetric meshing technique, primary buckling, secondary buckling, linear eigenvalue analysis, non-linear riks analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 331