Search results for: global solar radiation prediction

Authors: Ahmed R. Abdelaziz, Zaki M. I. Osha

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Solar radiation data are of great significance for solar energy system design. This study aims at developing and calibrating new empirical models for estimating monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Alexandria, Egypt. Day length hours, sun height, day number, and declination angle calculated data are used for this purpose. A comparison between measured and calculated values of solar radiation is carried out. It is shown that all the proposed correlations are able to predict the global solar radiation with excellent accuracy in Alexandria.

Keywords: solar energy, global solar radiation, model, regression coefficient

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Authors: Sidra A. Shaikh, M. A. Ahmed, M. W. Akhtar

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Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for Islamabad (Lat: 330 43’ N, Long: 370 71’) to access the solar potential of the area using sunshine hour data. A detailed analysis of global solar radiation values measured using several methods is presented. These values are then compared with the NASA SSE model. The variation in direct and diffuse components of solar radiation is observed in summer and winter months for Islamabad along with the clearness index KT. The diffuse solar radiation is found maximum in the month of July. Direct and beam radiation is found to be high in the month of April to June. From the results it appears that with the exception of monsoon months, July and August, solar radiation for electricity generation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year. Finally, the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean percent error (MPE) for global solar radiation are also presented.

Keywords: solar potential, global and diffuse solar radiation, Islamabad, errors

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Authors: M. A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh, M. W. Akhtar

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Solar radiation on horizontal surface over three southern cities of Sindh, namely Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah has been investigated to asses the feasibility of solar energy application for power generation. In the present work, measured data of bright sunshine hour of the region have been used to estimate the global and diffuse solar radiation. The regression coefficient 'a' and 'b' have been calculated using first order Angstrom type co-relation. The result obtained shows that the contribution of direct solar radiation is low and diffuse radiation is high during the monsoon months July and August for Karachi and Hyderabad. The sky remains clear from September to June, whereas for Nawabshah the global radiation remains high throughout the year. The potential of grid quality solar photovoltaic power in Karachi is estimated for 10 square meter area of solar panel.

Keywords: solar potential over Sindh, global and diffuse solar radiation, radiation over three cities of Sindh, solar panels

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Authors: M. A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh, M. W. Akhtar

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Global and Diffuse Solar radiation on horizontal surface over two cities of Sindh, namely Jacobabad and Rohri were carried out using sunshine hour data of the area to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization in Sindh province. The result obtained shows a high variation in direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months (80% direct and 20% diffuse). The contribution of diffuse solar radiation is low even in monsoon months i.e. July and August. The appearance of cloud is rare even in monsoon months. The estimated value indicates that this part of Sindh has higher solar potential and solar panels can be used for power generation. The solar energy can be utilized throughout the year in this part of Sindh, Pakistan.

Keywords: solar potential over Sindh, global and diffuse solar radiation, radiation over two cities of Sindh, environmental engineering

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Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Maliha Afshan, Adeel Tahir

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Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for the Capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad ( latitude 330 43’N and Longitude 370 71’E) to assess the solar potential of the area. The global and diffuse solar radiation were carried out using sunshine hour data for the above-mentioned area. Monthly total solar radiation is calculated through regression constants a and b through declination angle of the sun and sunshine hours and KT that is cloudiness index are used to calculate the diffuse solar radiation. Result obtained shows variation in the direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months for Islamabad. Diffuse solar radiation was found maximum in July, i.e., 32% whereas direct or beam radiation was found to be high in April to June, i.e., 73%. During July, August, and December, the sky was found cloudy. From the result, it appears that with the exception of monsoon month July and August the solar energy can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year in Islamabad.

Keywords: global radiation, Islamabad, diffuse radiation, sky condition, sunshine hour

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Malika Fekih, Abdenour Bourabaa, Rafika Hariti, Mohamed Saighi

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In Algeria the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values.

Keywords: global solar radiation, empirical model, semi arid areas, climatological parameters

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: recurrent neural networks, global solar radiation, multi-layer perceptron, gradient, root mean square error

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: N. Arslanoglu

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This paper deals with the optimum tilt angle for the solar collector in order to collect the maximum solar radiation. The optimum angle for tilted surfaces varying from 0^◦ to 90^◦ in steps of 1^◦ was computed. In present study, a theoretical model is used to predict the global solar radiation on a tilted surface and to obtain the optimum tilt angle for a solar collector in Bursa, Turkey. Global solar energy radiation on the solar collector surface with an optimum tilt angle is calculated for specific periods. It is determined that the optimum slope angle varies between 0^◦ (June) and 59^◦ (December) throughout the year. In winter (December, January, and February) the tilt should be 55^◦, in spring (March, April, and May) 19.6^◦, in summer (June, July, and August) 5.6^◦, and in autumn (September, October, and November) 44.3^◦. The yearly average of this value was obtained to be 31.1^◦ and this would be the optimum fixed slope throughout the year.

Keywords: Bursa, global solar radiation, optimum tilt angle, tilted surface

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Laidi Maamar, Hanini Salah

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The present work investigates the potential of artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The ANN is developed and optimized using three years meteorological database from 2011 to 2013 available at the meteorological station of Blida (Blida 1 university, Algeria, Latitude 36.5°, Longitude 2.81° and 163 m above mean sea level). Optimal configuration of the ANN model has been determined by minimizing the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and maximizing the correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted data with the ANN model. To select the best ANN architecture, we have conducted several tests by using different combinations of parameters. A two-layer ANN model with six hidden neurons has been found as an optimal topology with (RMSE=4.036 W/m²) and (R²=0.999). A graphical user interface (GUI), was designed based on the best network structure and training algorithm, to enhance the users’ friendliness application of the model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, global solar radiation, solar energy, prediction, Algeria

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Authors: M. A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaik

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Global and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal surface over seven cities of Sindh namely Karachi, Hyderabad, Chore, Padidan, Nawabshah, Rohri and Jacobabad were carried out using sunshine hour data of the area to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization at Sindh province. The result obtained shows a variation of direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months in southern Sindh (50% direct and 50% diffuse for Karachi, and Hyderabad) where there is a large variation in direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months in northern region (80% direct and 20% diffuse for Rohri and Jacobabad). In southern Sindh, the contribution of diffuse solar radiation is higher during the monsoon months (July and August). The sky remains clear during September to June. In northern Sindh (Rohri and Jacobabad) the contribution of diffuse solar radiation is low even in monsoon months i,e in July and August. The Kt value for northern Sindh indicates a clear sky. In northern part of the Sindh percentage of diffuse radiation does not exceed more than 20%. The appearance of cloud is rare. From the point of view of power generation, the estimated values indicate that northern part of Sindh has high solar potential while the southern part has low solar potential.

Keywords: global and diffuse solar radiation, solar potential, Province of Sindh, solar radiation studies for power generation

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Authors: Kudzanayi Chiteka, Wellington Makondo

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The whole world is on the drive to go green owing to the negative effects of burning fossil fuels. Therefore, there is immediate need to identify and utilise alternative renewable energy sources. Among these energy sources solar energy is one of the most dominant in Zimbabwe. Solar power plants used to generate electricity are entirely dependent on solar radiation. For planning purposes, solar radiation values should be known in advance to make necessary arrangements to minimise the negative effects of the absence of solar radiation due to cloud cover and other naturally occurring phenomena. This research focused on the prediction of Global Horizontal Irradiation values for the sixth day given values for the past five days. Artificial intelligence techniques were used in this research. Three models were developed based on Support Vector Machines, Radial Basis Function, and Feed Forward Back-Propagation Artificial neural network. Results revealed that Support Vector Machines gives the best results compared to the other two with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.05kWh/m²/day root mean square (RMS) error of 0.15kWh/m²/day and a coefficient of determination of 0.990. The other predictive models had prediction accuracies of MAPEs of 4.5% and 6% respectively for Radial Basis Function and Feed Forward Back-propagation Artificial neural network. These two models also had coefficients of determination of 0.975 and 0.970 respectively. It was found that prediction of GHI values for the future days is possible using artificial intelligence-based predictive models.

Keywords: solar energy, global horizontal irradiation, artificial intelligence, predictive models

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Authors: Hasan Yildizhan

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According to the Solar Energy Potential Atlas (GEPA) prepared by Turkish Ministry of Energy, Hakkari is ranked first in terms of sunshine duration and it is ranked eighth in terms of solar radiation energy. Accordingly, Hakkari has a rich potential of investment with regard to solar radiation energy. The part of the solar radiation energy arriving on the surface of the earth which is transposable to useful work is determined by means of exergy analysis. In this study, the radiation exergy values for Hakkari have been calculated and evaluated by making use of the monthly average solar radiation energy and temperature values measured by General Directorate of State Meteorology.

Keywords: solar radiation exergy, Hakkari, solar energy potential, Turkey

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Authors: Laidi Maamar, Achwak Madani, Abdellah El Ahdj Abdellah

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The aim of this work is to use Support Vector regression (SVR) combined with dragonfly, firefly, Bee Colony and particle swarm Optimization algorithm to predict global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in some cities in Algeria. Combining these optimization algorithms with SVR aims principally to enhance accuracy by fine-tuning the parameters, speeding up the convergence of the SVR model, and exploring a larger search space efficiently; these parameters are the regularization parameter (C), kernel parameters, and epsilon parameter. By doing so, the aim is to improve the generalization and predictive accuracy of the SVR model. Overall, the aim is to leverage the strengths of both SVR and optimization algorithms to create a more powerful and effective regression model for various cities and under different climate conditions. Results demonstrate close agreement between predicted and measured data in terms of different metrics. In summary, SVM has proven to be a valuable tool in modeling global solar radiation, offering accurate predictions and demonstrating versatility when combined with other algorithms or used in hybrid forecasting models.

Keywords: support vector regression (SVR), optimization algorithms, global solar radiation prediction, hybrid forecasting models

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Authors: Samy A. Khalil, U. Ali Rahoma

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The measurements of solar radiation, satellite data has been routinely utilize to estimate solar energy. However, the temporal coverage of satellite data has some limits. The reanalysis, also known as "retrospective analysis" of the atmosphere's parameters, is produce by fusing the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models with observation data from a variety of sources, including ground, and satellite, ship, and aircraft observation. The result is a comprehensive record of the parameters affecting weather and climate. The effectiveness of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa was evaluate against high-quality surfaces measured using statistical analysis. Estimating the distribution of global solar radiation (GSR) over five chosen areas in North Africa through ten-years during the period time from 2011 to 2020. To investigate seasonal change in dataset performance, a seasonal statistical analysis was conduct, which showed a considerable difference in mistakes throughout the year. By altering the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison, the performance of the dataset is alter. Better performance is indicate by the data's monthly mean values, but data accuracy is degraded. Solar resource assessment and power estimation are discuses using the ERA-5 solar radiation data. The average values of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the reanalysis data of solar radiation vary from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.055 to 0.178, and 0.0145 to 0.198 respectively during the period time in the present research. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% during the period time in the present research. This research's objective is to provide a reliable representation of the world's solar radiation to aid in the use of solar energy in all sectors.

Keywords: solar energy, ERA-5 analysis data, global solar radiation, North Africa

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Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Maliha Afshan

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Solar energy potential of Capital city Islamabad and five major cities Peshawar, Lahore, Multan, Quetta and Karachi have been analyzed by using sun shine hour data of the area. Global and diffused solar radiation on horizontal surfaces has been assessed to see the feasibility of solar energy utilization. The result obtained shows 70% direct and 30% diffuse solar radiation for five cities throughout the year except Karachi which shows large variation in direct and diffuse component of solar radiation 57% direct and 43% diffuse in the month of July and August. The cloudiness index were also calculated which lies between 60 to 70% for all the cities except for Karachi which shows 37% clear sky in monsoon month July and August. All the cities show high solar potential throughout the year except Karachi which shows low solar potential during July and August months.

Keywords: global and diffuse solar radiations, Pakistan, power generation, solar potential, sunshine hour

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Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh, Maliha Afshan Siddiqui

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Solar radiation studies of Sindh province have been studied to evaluate the solar energy potential of the area. Global and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal surface over five cities namely Karachi, Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Chore and Padidan of Sindh province were carried out using sun shine hour data of the area to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization. The result obtained shows a large variation of direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in winter and summer months. 50% direct and 50% diffuse solar radiation for Karachi and Hyderabad were observed and for Chore in summer month July and August the diffuse radiation is about 33 to 39%. For other areas of Sindh such as Nawabshah and Patidan the contribution of direct solar radiation is high throughout the year. The Kt values for Nawabshah and Patidan indicates a clear sky almost throughout the year. In Nawabshah area the percentage of diffuse radiation does not exceed more than 29%. The appearance of cloud is rare even in the monsoon months July and August whereas Karachi and Hyderabad and Chore has low solar potential during the monsoon months. During the monsoon period Karachi and Hyderabad can utilize hybrid system with wind power as wind speed is higher. From the point of view of power generation the estimated values indicate that Karachi and Hyderabad and chore has low solar potential for July and August while Nawabshah, and Padidan has high solar potential Throughout the year.

Keywords: global and diffuse solar radiation, province of Sindh, solar energy potential, solar radiation studies for power generation

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Suresh Prasad Sharma, Som Nath Saha

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This paper deals with the effect of Global Solar Radiation (GSR) on the performance of double flow solar air heater having corrugated plate as an absorber. An analytical model of a double flow solar air heater has been presented, and a computer program in C++ language has been developed to calculate the outlet air temperature, heat gain, pressure drop for estimating the thermal and thermohydraulic efficiencies. The performance of double flow corrugated absorber is compared with double flow flat plate and conventional solar air heaters. It is found that the double flow arrangement effectively increases the air temperature rise and efficiencies in comparison to a conventional collector. However, corrugated absorber is more superior to that of flat plate double flow solar air heater. The results indicate that increasing the solar radiation leads to achieve higher air temperature rise and efficiencies.

Keywords: corrugated absorber, double flow, flat plate, solar air heater

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

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The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: Pattra Pukdeekiat, Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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This work was originated to precisely determine direct solar radiation by using atmospheric physics models since the accurate prediction of solar radiation is necessary and useful for solar energy applications including atmospheric research. The possible models and techniques for a calculation of regional direct solar radiation were challenging and compulsory for the case of unavailable instrumental measurement. The investigation was mathematically governed by six astronomical parameters i.e. declination (δ), hour angle (ω), solar time, solar zenith angle (θz), extraterrestrial radiation (Iso) and eccentricity (E0) along with two atmospheric parameters i.e. air mass (mr) and dew point temperature at Bangna meteorological station (13.67° N, 100.61° E) in Bangkok, Thailand. Analyses of five models of solar radiation determination with the assumption of clear sky were applied accompanied by three statistical tests: Mean Bias Difference (MBD), Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD) and Coefficient of determination (R2) in order to validate the accuracy of obtainable results. The calculated direct solar radiation was in a range of 491-505 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 8.41% for winter and 532-540 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 4.89% for summer 2014. Additionally, dataset of seven continuous days, representing both seasons were considered with the MBD, RMSD and R2 of -0.08, 0.25, 0.86 and -0.14, 0.35, 3.29, respectively, which belong to Kumar model for winter and CSR model for summer. In summary, the determination of direct solar radiation based on atmospheric models and empirical equations could advantageously provide immediate and reliable values of the solar components for any site in the region without a constraint of actual measurement.

Keywords: atmospheric physics models, astronomical parameters, atmospheric parameters, clear sky condition

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa

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Solar radiation is a green renewable energy which has the potential to answer the needs of energy problems on the period. Knowing how to estimate the strength of the solar radiation force may be one solution of sustainable energy development in an integrated manner. Unfortunately, a fairly extensive area of Indonesia is still very low availability of solar radiation data. Therefore, we need a method to estimate the exact strength of solar radiation. In this study, author used a model Reference Evaluation of Solar Transmittance, 2 Bands (REST 2). Validation of REST 2 model has been performed in Spain, India, Colorado, Saudi Arabia, and several other areas. But it is not widely used in Indonesia. Indonesian region study area is represented by the area of Semarang, Central Java. Solar radiation values estimated using REST 2 model was then verified by field data and gives average RMSE value of 6.53%. Based on the value, it can be concluded that the model REST 2 can be used to estimate the value of solar radiation in clear sky conditions in parts of Indonesia.

Keywords: estimation, solar radiation power, REST 2, solar transmittance

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: A. Guechi, M. Chegaar

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This study investigates how AlGaAs/GaAs thin film solar cells perform under varying global solar spectrum due to the changes of environmental parameters such as the air mass and the atmospheric turbidity. The solar irradiance striking the solar cell is simulated using the spectral irradiance model SMARTS2 (Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine) for clear skies on the site of Setif (Algeria). The results show a reduction in the short circuit current due to increasing atmospheric turbidity, it is 63.09% under global radiation. However increasing air mass leads to a reduction in the short circuit current of 81.73%.The efficiency decrease with increasing atmospheric turbidity and air mass.

Keywords: AlGaAs/GaAs, solar cells, environmental parameters, spectral variation, SMARTS

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Authors: Sofiane Bourchak, Sébastien Bridier

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The objective of this study is to show how to calculate and map solar energy’s quantity (instantaneous and accumulated global solar radiation during the year) available on roofs in the city Aix-en-Provence which has a population of 140,000 inhabitants. The result is a geographic information system (GIS) layer, which represents hourly and monthly the production of solar energy on roofs throughout the year. Solar energy professionals can use it to optimize implementations and to size energy production systems. The results are presented as a set of maps, tables and histograms in order to determine the most effective costs in Aix-en-Provence in terms of photovoltaic power (electricity) and thermal power (hot water).

Keywords: geographic information system, photovoltaic, thermal, solar potential, solar radiation

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Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

Abstract:

The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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